From Beirut to the Beltway

Pass the Andrex

The moral high ground is a cold, lonely and often unpopular place to be. I am marching towards it with uneasy footsteps, mindful as I am that this may not be the time to be heading that way.

I believe that yesterday was the worst day in the history of the Lebanese Republic, and trust me, it's got competition. Yesterday, whatever remnants of decency – never mind legality – that still existed in our body politic were sacrificed at the altar of expediency. Yesterday we prostituted that poor toilet paper of a Constitution yet one more time. Yesterday, the very reason why Rafic Hariri died, was being peddled by his own party – a party that he probably would now disown – as the way out of the current crisis. Yesterday the very same people who were occupying that moral high ground I’m heading for, the very same people who had been presenting themselves as guardians of legality were preparing to tear the law books to shreds. And yesterday the same people who had said they wanted Michel Suleiman as president looked like the same people who will oppose his appointment.

Just like governments all over the world invoke “national security” to cover the various abuses and crimes, the Lebanese will call on that old dog, “ta nokhlass” (to get it over and done with). Because, regardless of that moral high ground, everyone living in Lebanon will tell you that we’ve had enough. So much that we’ll compromise on almost anything to get out of the hole we’re in. That’s why pontificating from the heights of an ivory tower will not exactly make you popular around here. But people get the leaders they deserve, says the old adage. And if we are in this situation, we have nobody else to blame, because we turned off our brains when we listened to Nasrallah, we turned on latent sectarianism when we voted for Aoun and ignored all the warning signs when we brought in Saad Hariri.

Meanwhile, the circus goes on in Beirut. And what a nauseating sight: as allegiances switch (Michel Murr flirting with M14, would you believe it), as principles vanish and laws get furiously re-written, Gen. Suleiman sits smugly, ready to grab the banana republic his election will create. And little does he know, the poor sod, that the people placing him on the chair are also tying Damocles’ sword over his head: one wrong move, general, and the very same illegality that gave you the seat will be invoked to unseat you.

The Belgian fudge

Time for some good, old-fashioned cynicism tonight. According to Assafir newspaper, Serge Brammertz will today “name names” in his final report into the Hariri assassination. Four names, no less. Well, thank you, sir. How gracious of you. Almost three years after the event, and one “technical” report after another unbelievably, mind-numbingly, boring technical report, the poor old taxpayer gets “four names”. Could it be the names that were revealed, oh, some two years ago? Well pardon me for not passing out with gratitude, but I think we are entitled to more than that.

Now, I might be proven hugely wrong later today when the report gets published but, from the onset, the Brammertz investigation always looked like an exercise in hedging bets and managing time and expectations. Turning the heat down, if you will. There seemed to be every need for that: Brammertz’s predecessor, the high-livin’, champagne-sippin’, from-the-hip-shootin’ Detlev Mehlis had, after all, practically spilled the entire contents of the beanbag and the coffee pot’s in what will probably go down in history as the only UN report that should get a parental advice rating.

To this observer, the Mehlis drama had looked every inch like an episode of Columbo before the last advertising break. We knew who did it, Columbo knew who did it and all that remained was for the culprit to be told that he did it. We just had a few ads to negotiate and the whole thing would unfold before us, leaving us replete and ready for bed. Sadly, CSI and politics don’t mix well. In my opinion, Mehlis’ investigation, progressing at a rate of knots, was preventing all concerned parties to - what’s the word - “leverage”. Enter Brammertz, and within a couple of months, the investigation had all the suspense of flossing: a few bits extracted, and not very tasty ones at that. Worse still, everything pointed to yet another crushingly dull write up. And then we suddenly get this.

The image of a thermostat just flashed in my mind. I wonder why.

Musings on a Monday night in Beirut

I am tired tonight. The ups and downs are beginning to take their toll on me. This morning as I headed for the office, driving down the Corniche, the air was crisp with the remnants of a northerly wind, and the early joggers were huffing and puffing their way by a sea so deeply blue and so still you could have thought it a painting. Over there, in the distance, Mount Sannine rose through low-lying mists and stood high and magnificent, crowned in dazzlingly white fresh snow. A scene so achingly beautiful you’d want to wrap it and take it home with you.

The same stretch, tonight. A different affair altogether: in near pitch darkness, under streetlights for some reason turned off, hardly a soul to see, not even a single amorous couple, and two, heavily manned and nervous looking army checkpoints, separated by less than a mile and no less than two police patrols, driving slowly in the still night.

What is it about this country that can make the mood swing so violently in the space of a few hours? Why is it that a morning so full of promise, so pregnant with anticipation, can become a foreboding, brooding evening that closes curtains, shutters windows and locks up doors? Why is it that a people who has already had so much to endure, be condemned to endure further? Tonight I wondered why on earth I came back to Lebanon, just as this morning I was pitying those who have decided to leave.

Alain Peyrefitte, a distinguished French writer and politician wrote once of a tragic event that occurred during the winter siege of Leningrad in WWII. On that night, the horses of a Russian artillery regiment caught in a huge forest fire, galloped through the inferno and into the nearly-frozen waters of Lake Ladoga. Triggered by a phenomenon known as surfusion, almost instantly, and with the snap of broken glass, the lake froze solid around the horses, trapping them in a deadly, icy grip. The next morning, a terrible spectacle was awaiting the first Russian patrols: that of a mirror-like surface out of which emerged, eyes petrified in fear, the marble-looking heads of hundreds of frozen horses. In his book, Les Cheveaux Du Lac Ladoga, Peyrefitte saw in this anecdote a metaphor for justice between two extremes. I’m seeing it in a different light altogether tonight.

Which way the wind blows

Right, folks, here it is: the attempt to replace – albeit temporarily – one of my favourite bloggers. If there is such a thing as internet stagefright, this must be it. Bear with me, I’ve never blogged before…Oh and, if it is signed by "elnaja" don't worry, it's still me, naja. It's just that it seems someone already has that name in TypePad. Here we go

A waiting room is hardly the place to do business, let alone run a country. And yet this, in a nutshell, is where Lebanon is. And where it has always been: never mind a new president, Lebanon has always been waiting for something that determines its fate, a "something" that almost invariably comes from outside its borders. I remember my late father lamenting that, whenever someone farts somewhere in the world, we always get to smell it. So it is no surprise that, with that bean stew being cooked in Annapolis, we sit and wait for the inevitable flatulence to come our way.

Few meals have the power to produce the kind of gas that affects Lebanon like Middle Eastern dishes cooked in foreign kitchens, particularly when the worst cooks have a hand in them. Today it appears that the Syrians have decided to send a kitchen hand, while our own government is sending Foreign Minister by interim Tarik Mitri, presumably to get a foretaste for what’s in store.

The feeling here in Lebanon is that the whole election timing charade was always going to fall hostage of the Peace Conference, and not even the most sacrosanct of constitutional deadlines was going to get in the way of a good old international chin-wag dictating the future course of events. The fact that the conference is as likely to succeed as Naim Qassem is to develop a sudden desire for White Castle Baconburgers is totally irrelevant: the worse the dish, the smellier the fart.

And it could be a pretty damn nasty stink: with many now bending over backwards to make friends with Damascus, many here – this commentator included – are getting the feeling that we could have spared ourselves a lot of trouble had we just asked the US to hold the conference date a couple of weeks earlier. I don’t think I would be exaggerating much by saying that this would have, at least, elicited a few wry smiles from the State Department: while the French have been busy blowing hot air (sadly maybe even doing something a bit more, erm, substantial), the Americans, save for a statement from Condoleeza Rice “warning against compromise with the pro-Syrian opposition” (AFP) have been strangely quiet of late. This doesn't bode well: as they say when it comes to wind: the worst ones are silent and deadly.

One last vacation

We're going on vacation one last time before Kais' baby brother makes his grand entrance into this world. Thank you all for reading this blog and keeping it interesting. I leave you in the safe hands of Naja, who will guest blog until my return seven days from now. Take it away Naja! 

Lahoud hands over security to army (corrected)

Emile Lahoud has declared Lebanon to "have the conditions" of a state of emergency, citing inability of the current "illegitimate" cabinet to govern and failure to elect a president by the constitutional deadline. Lahoud left the Lebanese army in charge of security matters in the country until a new government is formed.

Lahoud's decision could mean military rule until further notice.

Update. LBC reports the Siniora government will consider Lahoud's declaration worthless and unconstitutional, as the council of ministers is the only body allowed to declare a state of emergency, and only for 7 days.

Update 2. Although Lahoud did not directly call for state of emergency (post corrected), he handed over all security matters to the Lebanese army, meaning the cabinet would no longer have power over it. AFP quoted an official in the Siniora government as saying Lahoud's statement "is not valid and is unconstitutional...It is as if the statement was never issued."

March 14's fatal mistake

Now that the "opposition", including Nabih Berri, has adopted Aoun's "initiative", March 14 finds itself, yet again, outmaneuvered. After living in the Berri-esque illusion that Bkirki's list will be respected, March 14 rediscovered the dishonesty of its opponents. Over the past month, the "opposition" successfully managed to prevent the parliament's majority from electing a president through distraction and deceit. Hours before the constitutional deadline expires, the Syrian-puppet president is preparing to announce measures designed to prevent the Siniora cabinet from assuming power. Lahoud is armed with Hizbullah's blessing and the complicity of Michel Aoun. March 14 is counting on assurances given by Berri that the "opposition" will not escalate the situation if  a president in not elected through a majority vote.

March 14's Fares Soueid said the movement is waiting for Lahoud's announcement before taking such a step. Sadly, March 14 deputies came to parliament today and consented to a postponement, forfeiting their constitutional right to holding such a session. Considering that Berri couldn't hold his end of the French-sponsored bargain, it seems strange to this blogger that so much faith is still being placed in his promises, and in reaching agreement with him.

It should be clear that Lahoud is not bound by any arrangement Berri may have made with the majority. It should also be clear that Hizbullah and Aoun have been using Berri to buy time and keep March 14 from convening its deputies. One wonders if March 14's current strategy, which is sadly being pushed by Jumblatt and Hariri, will cost them the country.   

Aoun's folly and March 14's last chance

Michel Aoun has given the parliament's majority until 10 pm Friday night to capitulate and hand over the country to Hizbullah. This "historic initiative", as the delusional Aounists marketed it, was met with deserved rejection by March 14, which called on all deputies to head to parliament on Friday to elect a new president.

Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that March 14 will go through with the election, due to an agreement with the "opposition", which promised no escalation if no election is carried out outside the "consensus". It doesn't matter that Hizbullah made sure no consensus can ever be reached. 

Aoun's "initiative" is so absurd it is not worth analyzing, for fear of giving it more importance than it deserves. It violates every article in the constitution, and gives Aoun and Hizbullah an interim presidency, the cabinet, the post of army commander, and spares Hizbullah any serious discussion about its weapons. Not to mention it operates on the assumption that parliament is illegitimate. Even Nabih Berri must have scoffed at Aoun's shameful sidelining of the constitution and every state institution in the country.

Unless March 14 pulls a surprise tomorrow, expect Lebanon's presidential chair to remain empty until the Assad regime and Iran get what they want, or they are dealt with firmly. As for what Lebanese want, it seems that those wishes have been sacrificed in the name of security and civil peace. The agreement with Hizbullah, Lebanese media said before it took a day off to celebrate independence day, stipulates that the Siniora government, which the constitution says would run the country, would exercise minimum authority if there is no consensus candidate. Of course, Hizbullah is not known to honor agreements, especially when they're made with whom Nasralllah calls "Zionists" and "thieves and murderers". Needless to say, someone in March 14 must be thinking his partners would be fools if they didn't attempt to take the upper hand one last time before it's too late.

Independence lost

There is nothing more revolting that the sight of 4 European diplomats begging a crazy politician to withdraw his candidacy for the presidency. Not only is it unconstitutional for foreigners to try to convince a candidate to call it quits, but these efforts are backfiring on the parliament's majority. In one week, Aoun moved from being an irrelevant megalomaniac and Hizbullah's cover into a major player, prompting his equally crazy supporters to predict the exact time of his election on Friday. The diplomacy of begging boosted his self-importance and weakened the position of both March 14 and Nabih Berri, whom the French ironically entrusted with reaching a compromise with Hariri.

Equally revolting is the absurd "diplomacy" of Nicolas Sarkozy, who has effectively brought the Assad regime back to Lebanon. How many more phone calls to Bashar Assad, and how many more visits and incentives can the French president offer the regime before he realizes that he is fueling the fire that has been eating up Lebanon? In a sobering editorial, Michael Young shows how the French initiative, criticized on this blog from the start as being harmful to Lebanon, gave "Syrian President Bashar Assad … a golden opportunity to jack up his price on the panicking French, and we are where we are today, with Syria not only looking to capitalize on French eagerness, but also working to use that eagerness as leverage to bring in one of their favorites as Lebanese president." More dangerously, Young reports that one of the incentives the French offered may have involved the Hariri tribunal, which is now officially stuck in UN drawers.

On this day, we should perhaps ask not what other countries can do for Lebanon, but what Lebanese can do for their own country. There were a few who were willing to give this country what it deserves, but they have been killed or spooked and shoved into a corner by both enemies and friends. The French mistook us for Bulgarian nurses, while the US delivered nothing of consequence and made a fatal mistake to trust Sarkozy. Given the shortsightedness and laxity of those friends, the enemy cannot be blamed for finding fertile ground for its designs, especially when the dwellers of the land-of-do-as you-please lack the stamina to act independently by saying no to friends and foes alike.

Jumblatt: civil peace first

Amid strange optimism from Nabih Berri and reported rejection by March 14 of Michel Edde as a lone take-it-or-leave-it consensus candidate, Walid Jumblatt made a statement to As-Safir in which he said he was willing to accept any settlement and any name in the Patriarch's list, including Michel Edde. Jumblatt also said he didn't mind leaving international resolutions until after the election. "We don't want to implement international resolutions on the bodies of Lebanese people," he said, adding that the Lebanese public will not forgive any drop of blood spilled on the streets, and that everyone should strive to "exit this dark tunnel as soon as possible using any settlement that favors civil peace".

I will let you all ponder and debate this one. Jumblatt probably knows that the "opposition" is only half serious about Edde as a candidate, especially with the Aoun-Hizbullah duo refusing to compromise. My guess is that he wants to rob them and the regimes that support them of any excuses to ignite a conflict. But what do I know...