Independence lost

There is nothing more revolting that the sight of 4 European diplomats begging a crazy politician to withdraw his candidacy for the presidency. Not only is it unconstitutional for foreigners to try to convince a candidate to call it quits, but these efforts are backfiring on the parliament's majority. In one week, Aoun moved from being an irrelevant megalomaniac and Hizbullah's cover into a major player, prompting his equally crazy supporters to predict the exact time of his election on Friday. The diplomacy of begging boosted his self-importance and weakened the position of both March 14 and Nabih Berri, whom the French ironically entrusted with reaching a compromise with Hariri.

Equally revolting is the absurd "diplomacy" of Nicolas Sarkozy, who has effectively brought the Assad regime back to Lebanon. How many more phone calls to Bashar Assad, and how many more visits and incentives can the French president offer the regime before he realizes that he is fueling the fire that has been eating up Lebanon? In a sobering editorial, Michael Young shows how the French initiative, criticized on this blog from the start as being harmful to Lebanon, gave "Syrian President Bashar Assad … a golden opportunity to jack up his price on the panicking French, and we are where we are today, with Syria not only looking to capitalize on French eagerness, but also working to use that eagerness as leverage to bring in one of their favorites as Lebanese president." More dangerously, Young reports that one of the incentives the French offered may have involved the Hariri tribunal, which is now officially stuck in UN drawers.

On this day, we should perhaps ask not what other countries can do for Lebanon, but what Lebanese can do for their own country. There were a few who were willing to give this country what it deserves, but they have been killed or spooked and shoved into a corner by both enemies and friends. The French mistook us for Bulgarian nurses, while the US delivered nothing of consequence and made a fatal mistake to trust Sarkozy. Given the shortsightedness and laxity of those friends, the enemy cannot be blamed for finding fertile ground for its designs, especially when the dwellers of the land-of-do-as you-please lack the stamina to act independently by saying no to friends and foes alike.

Comments

[JoseyWales]

Happy Dependence Day Y'all,

The French have yet to find an Arab despot they won't cuddle with, even if it's after a little hard-to-get foreplay.

Our own idiots are worthless,. Joumblatt and Geagea tried to play a good game but have too much baggage.

Berri is an EMPTY mailbox.

Idiot Sfeir-B-Deir shored up Hezbo/Aoun/Syria like no other with his "2/3 legal quorum" crap months ago. It took away any credible threat M14 had.

M14 missed the boat so many times, it's not funny. Months ago, M14 should have set a HARD deadline: talks and overtures until xx Nov, then WE elect "SPECIFIC name" with 50%+1 (and they should have said it before the Pat idiot became a lawyer).

All this is water under the bridge now, with Hezbo telling Lahoud today "anything" you do before Nov 24 is "constitutional" (Naharnet). Yeah "anything" Sfeir or Aoun or Nasnas say is lawful except the actual text of the constitution.

And yesterday, only 3 or 4 people from Khalass showed up to protest the current mess. Where is everyone else??

Just wake me up when Lahoud meets his demise. That is the only (very sick and reprehensible) interest I still have.

[fubar]

"The French mistook us for Bulgarian nurses, while the US delivered nothing of consequence and made a fatal mistake to trust Sarkozy."

Oh, piss off, AK.

Does the US expect anything from Syria? NO!
Does the US expect anything from France? NO!

Who turns to the frogs at every possible opportunity? It is the Lebanese who vie like dogs for the opportunity to hump the leg of any Frenchman in sight. When do the Lebanese tire of acting like bastard children who yearn for any scrap of meager affection from their feckless French father? When do the Lebanese realize that grown men stand on their own and determine their own destiny, instead of waiting endlessly for their absent father to come to their rescue?

It is not the US who makes the fatal mistake. Look in the mirror, my francophile friends.

[LebExile]

Hi all,

The situation is not totally lost - I see a very big surprise coming tomorrow...!!

I heard a rumour that March 14 are giving in to accepting Aoun as president..

OK, I am not your most ardent Aoun follower, but, you must admit he will be a strong president.. his ego and maglamania will also give poor Hassy a run for his money.

I can just see it - if march 14 agree to Aoun - then going by histroy - the first thing he's going after will be Hizzy... I'll be that by next november - there will be either Hizzy or Aoun - not both!

[AK]

And happy thanksgiving to you too, Fubar.

Expecting is one thing. Acting is another. All we got is bla bla bla from everyone, Rice and Gates included. Don't take it from me, ask John Bolton. And no one absolved the Lebanese of anything, especially not this blogger. The French had the advantage of being closer and not drowning in a nearby swamp. Or so someone thought. No need to get so defensive. I take it you fear your Turkey will come out dry this year?

[AK]

Leb Exile, Amin Gemayel wants him, not sure about the others... Talk about never learning from past mistakes...

[Renee]

Aoun a strong president? Aoun will give Hizblahblah a run for his money? Isn't this the same Aoun who fled like a cockroach for France when his neck was on the line?

No thanks.

[Shunkleash]

DINGLEBERRY ALERT!!!

From a healine on NOW Lebanon:

Gemayel: Let’s put our personal interests aside and seek Lebanon’s interests.

Too funny:-) SAAAAAAD still takes the cake though. I can't wait for the press to take him apart on this. Actually, I can't wait since it will never happen so its left up to me.

Pardon moi Amin Beyk, but WTF have you and all the other jerk offs been doing for the last 2 months?

Ayesh Lubnan (what ever is left of it)

[Danny]

The Quite before the Storm...

[e]

No elections tomorrow, the power of the president moves to Saniora.
Why so glum AK?
e

[e]

Aoun just backed down and proposed a compromise president not from his block in exchange for a prime minister not from the FM block for the next two years.

It is a stupid proposal but shows that nobody is willing to appease Aoun. The no president option is a threat to the opposition, not March 14.

[ghassan karam]

Fubar,
You are right, the enemy is not the US but neither is it the French or even the Iranians or Syrians. I have met the enemy and it is us. But we cannt bring ourselves to admit it. Where else would this charade be tolerated? Where is the outrage? (3 people from Khallas///).
As I type this Aoun is in a press conference and he is hinting that he will nominate tomorrow a President and that Hariri will nominate/choose a PM and the new government will consist of 55% of March 14 and 45% HA and associates. This is no country, it is not even a fiefdom, this appears to be a TV show "Deal or No Deal". If the Lebanese people accept this without an uprising then they would deserve all what the future holds for them. Miracles don't happen in the real world and it is time that those of us who have been consumed by Lebanon to kick the habit cold turkey. Addictions are not easy to overcome but I shall try to stop doing Lebanon.

[e]

Ghassan,
March 14 have not agreed to give the opposition veto rights for months. You think they are going to do it now? Aoun is just engaged in wishful thinking.

[LebExile]

GK I tried to go cold turkey - but unfortunately airlines dont refund unless you have a good reason!

I cant say I didn't see this coming!!

[Bad Vilbel]

A few quick comments:

1. Sure the French bungled this one royally. But I blame the Lebanese people, first and foremost. I mean, I'm sure they're converging on Nejmeh square right now, as I type this, to start another cedar revolution, and lynch all these incompetent nincompoops...Right? Oh, no wait. They're busy throwing their hands in the air and going "Inshallah"...

2. I have no idea how Aoun being president suddenly became a "compromise". Or why anyone would consider him a strong president. He's bozo the clown, with a dash of megalomaniac. You people truly do not learn, do you.

3. March 14 has turned out to be (much as Ghassan, Josey and myself repeatedly clamored) a complete joke, as opposed to the salvation of this country. We'll have to look for our salvation elsewhere, I suppose.

4. Why is it acceptable to do a "one-time-only" (pauses for laughter) 2 year term???? Oh, right, i forgot. These guys have never heard of the word "constitution" (pauses for more laughter).

[Lover]

Wait, Wait, slow down there buddy...

Lebanon has a confessional concesus system, right?

This means the following in Lebanon:-
- The Parliament Speaker = Shia
- The Prime Minister = Sunni
- The Presidency = Christian

The majority of Shia in Lebanon agree with Nabih Berri being the Parliament Speaker, representing their authority in the governing branch of Parliament.

The Majority agree with Seniora being the Prime Minister (as long as he is backed by Saad Harriri and Sunni).

But then we get to the Presidency. Why should the Christians accept any candidate not agreed on by the majority of Christians? Why should they accept that their power is being compromised by the Sunni Harriri and Shia Nabih Berri? Why didn't anyone send the Christians a list of choices of 6 or more potential Sunni Prime Ministers for the Christian leaders to pick and choose one?

The fact is, the last elections show that Michelle Oun has 70% of the Christian vote - a super-majority. Why should he be barred from the Presidency, when as far as anyone is concerned he is the most representative of the Christian voice in Lebanon.

I respect this man and what he stands for because he doesn't allow himself to be manipulated by any foreign powers. He acts on his own initiative. Maybe he is a great man who arrived too early to Lebanon - we still can't stomach the notion of a popular leader without foreign nations interfering in his decision-making or policies, but we still complain our country is a playgroup for foreign powers.

As far as I care, if you think he no longer represents Christians, I no longer think Parliament or Government represent Lebanon either - lets have new election. If you don't agree on early elections, just shut up. Its really that simple.

Today he did something that goes against all stereotypes you people give him. He came up with an ingenius initiative. A president outside his party but accepted by him, in return for a Prime Minister not from the Future Bloc, but accepted by Harriri. Seems fair to me. Lets see if your lot keep to their end.

[LebExile]

I'm sorry is Aoun still peddling the 70% canard???

I withdraw my approval!!!

[Solomon2]

It sounds like Lebanese pols are in danger of falling into a groupthink fallacy: committing to an agreement, any agreement, without sufficient regard to the consequences. However, I would guess that this isn't what is actually happening. More, I don't know.

I suppose this has Lebanese either entirely apathetic or pulling out their fingernails with their teeth. Without direct influence on the process, either in the form of "people power" on the street (where is Khalas?) or through the ballot box, you just have to endure it. With Lebanon's record of assasinations, especially president-elects, it's understandable that your politicians desire to make the time between election and wielding power as short as possible.

[LebExile]

BTW the fact that Syria was unable to impose a President was a monumental slap in the face to Assad and Hezz!!

one day to go!

[e]

I've got to ask again the Lebanese on this forum who are March 14 supporters, why the glum attitude? The March 14 politicians are doing the right things in my opinion. If no president is elected, power reverts to Saniora's government. There is no consitutional vagueness about that. What is bad about that?
Let Lahoud (Syria and HA) be the bad guy and trample the constitution if he dares.

[Shunkleash]

Dman it "lover" you always show up and spoil a good thing.

To clarify for your exceedingly small intellect:

This is nonsense:
"The majority of Shia in Lebanon AGREE with Nabih Berri being the Parliament Speaker, representing their authority in the governing branch of Parliament.

and so is this:
The Majority AGREE with Seniora being the Prime Minister (as long as he is backed by Saad Harriri and Sunni)."

This was pulled out of uranus:
The fact is, the last elections show that Michelle Oun has 70% of the Christian vote - a super-majority. Why should he be barred from the Presidency, when as far as anyone is concerned he is the most representative of the Christian voice in Lebanon.

READ: Since when does anyone have the right to
1. SIDESTEP the constitution; Siniora/Hariri/jumblatt/sfeir/Aoun/lahoud etc etc
2. NOT ABIDE by the constitution; Berri/Sfeir/Aoun/Jumblatt/lahoud etc etc
3. UNDERMINE the constituion; aoun/sfeir/berri/jumblatt/lahoud etc etc

and think that they are somehow serving their country. These fcukers should be in prison or being publicly whipped for their stupidity, arrogance, dishonesty and disloyalty.

This is lebanon. It may look like a convenience store but it ain't. If you want a 7/11 go down the block. Otherwise you can't run this country on convenience. There are rules and rules must be followed.

So adressing your nonsense--->" As far as I care, if you think he no longer represents Christians, I no longer think Parliament or Government represent Lebanon either - lets have new election. If you don't agree on early elections, just shut up. Its really that simple."

Actually, unless you can show me that the CONSTITUION calls for early elections or a popular vote by the people for a new president, as some morons like you are calling for, then I think you need to SHUT UP and go hide in the hole next to your great leader!

Thank you

Ayesh Lubnan

[Super Dude]

Can someone help me validate this claim by Mr. Elie 'Big Constitutional Expert' Strawberly.

He claims that if Lahouss resigns, the government can no longer assume power. The gist of it is that Lahouss will resign at the Last minute to prevent the government from taking over.

Here is the Lebanese constitution for your enjoyment.

Lover please take a look, this actually is not toilet paper like they taught you at school.

[Solomon2]

One last thought before I go to my wife's wonderful Thanksgiving dinner. Folks, after the Cedar Revolution and especially after the 2006 war, how many of you thought that Lebanon would get this far and not have a civil war or another international conflict?

You Lebanese really have to give your leaders a smidgen of credit for that. So how likely is it that they will now stumble at the end of the road? Peace.

[ghassan karam]

Super Dude,
My reading of the constitution does not support the interpretation that Mr. Elie Strawberly seem to be conveying to you.

Article 62 [Vacancy]
Should the Presidency become vacant for any reason whatsoever, the Council of Ministers exercises the powers of the President by delegation.

As you can see Article 62 actually gives the power to the Cabinet in the case of a presidential resignation.

[Super Dude]

Indeed.

Why should the Lebanese aspire to an independent and sovereign state, when they have civil strife every few decades. The current politicians should be commended for delaying the inevitable.

At the end, the people of the cedars, as they like to be called (if I was a cedar I'd be insulted, just like the cucumbers), deserves all the sh!t coming their way. Their leadership is a reflection of themselves.

[Bad Vilbel]

Lover just shot himself in the foot and exposed himself for the fake he is:

For months now, he's bombarded us with comments about how the Saniora government was NOT legitimate because it doesn't have the support of a majority of Lebanese. Then, today, he tells us that the majority of Lebanese choose Saniora as PM.

NICE TRY!

And no, the Lebanese system does not work as you claim, doofus. The PARLIAMENT elects the president. That includes the druze, shia, sunni AND christian MPs. Not JUST THE CHRISTIANS.

If the system was as you claim, then only the Shia MPs would vote for the speaker of the house. The Sunni MPs would vote for the PM. And the christian MPs would vote for the president.

That is not the case. Just as a quick lesson in Lebanese system for you:

1. The MPs (of all confessions) elect a Maronite president.
2. The President (a maronite) names the PM that's been nominated by the various MPs (again, not just the sunni MPs).
3. The parliament (all of it, all confessions) vote for the speaker.

Get it? No? Haha.

[Super Dude]

Thank you GK. I know there is nothing in the constitution that is remotely close to this bozo's comment.

[Marillionlb]

Reading this post and the comments that followed, allow me to start by saying that I was amazed by the number of people who actually still take the time to read blogs and respond. I had given up for a while. Humour me if you may and allow me to state the following:
Has the 14th of March suddenly found a new set of balls hidden within the walls and crevasses of the Pheonicia hotel; or is this new found surge of adrenaline caused by yet another half baked speech uttered by our one and only demented general? Regardless what the catalyst is I sure hope that for once they will put their money where their mouth (many times silent) is.
Bad Vilbel, Bozo is at least funny, I would go as far as to compare the demented general to the orange character used in the old orangina advertisement.
One question I dare ask: Does the “Iztaz” hold the monopoly over the parliament; does he hold the deed to it?
Many of the comments on this blog show frustration with both camps and many put the blame (and the solution) on fellow countrymen. What if on this coming Friday us (true Lebanese, which I call the silent majority) pull our ranks and organize a vigil at both Baabda and parliament. Demand that Emile the despot leaves and that our impotent representatives, elect (and I do say elect and not appoint) a new president.
Yes I know I am daydreaming!
Thank you for humoring me.

[Danny]

It is time!!! We'll see who has balls!

[Lover]

"Actually, unless you can show me that the CONSTITUION calls for early elections or a popular vote by the people for a new president, as some morons like you are calling for, then I think you need to SHUT UP and go hide in the hole next to your great leader!"

I didn't say that. I said Oun has a legitimate right to be President (as the Shia have a legitimate right to be included in the government, which is not the case today) and if you deny his right to be President on grounds of him not being representative, then for a long time now the opposition has claimed neither parliament or the government is representative of todays Lebanese street. Lets have new ELECTIONS FOR EVERYTHING. Yes you can do that. Go to the highest court in the land and if both sides reject the outcome of the election, either a re-election or a re-count is allowed. hmm?

"Then, today, he tells us that the majority of Lebanese choose Saniora as PM."

What the F*** are you on about? I said, had the Sunnis had their Prime Ministerial post forced on them by some next dude they don't think is representative of them,. all hell would break loose. So, you idiot, the Sunnis agree with Seniora representing THEM in that post.

Whether you like it or not, we have a concesus system. That is why there are opposition members in Parliament you bim-wit. Lebanon is a wole different Democracy buddy. You can go play with your American version somewhere else because that doesn't apply in Lebanon.

Consensus = agreement, right? That is why the 'majority', or any elected majority in fact would technically have the right to replace every single head of every single institution with their own everytime they win an election. The 'majority' were forces to keep Nabih Berri in his post because he is the most representative of Shia. They included 5 Shia ministers in the Cabinet because that is a requirement by constitution, and the 5 they had were the most representative of their people do you understand now you dimwit?

[Bad Vilbel]

Aoun has a legitimate right to be president???? WHAT? WHY?

You know what "legitimate" means?

I must have forgotten the article in the constitution that says "Article 100: Michel Aoun shall be president".

Unless there is such an article in the constitution, Michel Aoun has about as much right to be president as I do. For the last freaking time, our Lebanese Republic does not say "That one who screams the loudest shall be president." It says "The president shall be elected by Parliament."

Just because YOU think Aoun should be president doesn't mean it's "legitimate". Legitimate means FOLLOWING THE CONSTITUTION.

Hey guys, I've decided, in my infinite wisdom that Shunkleash has the right to be president. Just because I said so. It's legitimate, dammit! *stomps foot*