Aoun, Hariri and the Hizbullah challenge

The Aoun-Hariri meetings in Paris may be shrouded in secrecy, but they have at least injected some hope, even if that is part delusion. The "summit", as An-Nahar called it, has led some to suspend their disbelief for a day or two, noting "progress" and hoping for a breakthrough. The French and Americans are reportedly working behind the scenes to facilitate this meeting, especially after the Assad regime rejected the latest French-coated carrot. It seems Aoun is being offered one last chance, before March 14 resorts to picking a president outside the "consensus", a move that will likely receive wide international support.

Speaking of carrots, Hizbullah, obviously not happy that its Christian cover is shaking hands with the enemy, has suddenly named Michel Aoun as its candidate, after much hesitation and refusal to publicly back his candidacy. The timing of the announcement suggests that Hizbullah is afraid of losing its Christian cover, so it has, yet again, dangled the presidency carrot before Aoun, in hopes he falls for it again.

March 14 media is claiming that Saad Hariri will try to persuade Aoun to drop his candidacy, in return for a say in the identity of the president. It is not clear how Aoun will respond if that is indeed the objective of the talks. It is clear, however, that Aoun is being presented with a golden opportunity to redeem himself and disassociate himself from the Syrian-Iranian line. If the reports are true about Hizbullah's involvement in the assassination of March 14 leaders, then Aoun cannot afford to keep alienating his natural allies, despite the shortcomings he singles them out for. Aoun has already been betrayed by Hizbullah, when it became clear that they were not serious about supporting his candidacy, and are only using him to weaken the Christians politically. The next assassination will be different and lead to different reactions, especially given Hizbullah's reported role in amassing intelligence for the killers and possibly facilitating the murders. Does Aoun really want to be one of Hizbullah's proxies when all hell breaks loose?

Hizbullah has been preparing for a coup since last year's war with Israel weakened its support among the non-Shia. This blogger is not convinced they are interested in a compromise, or in stopping a civil war. They have now boosted their numbers in downtown Beirut, near Siniora's headquarters, and have armed elements ready for action. For that, a strangely timed announcement by Amin Gemayel that he reached an agreement with Berri and Hizbullah over a "mechanism to reach an agreement over one of the proposed initiatives" seems like an exercise in denial. Of course, the Hariri-Aoun talks could also be an exercise in futility. But at least they could, if successful, help deal a blow to Hizbullah's "strategy" to take over the country.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Not much for me to add here. I was pretty much thinking the exact same thing as what you posted, AK.

Looks like M14 is trying to pull Aoun back towards them. And more importantly, it almost looks like Aoun has finally figured out that Hizballah was using him. This is probably the first time in a long while that he hasn't come out making some pompous and inane accusations against M14. Took you long enough to figure it out, Micho...

As for Hizballah and their coup. I agree with you. I don't think Hezb was ever interested in compromise and consensus. By their very definition, they are not capable of that (as has been explained many times on this blog). I believe you are right when you predict a more violent attempt at a coup. Hezb has been gearing up for it from various angles (North of the Litani, Downtown Beirut, training various smaller groups, intelligence, you name it). We'll have to see where it goes, but i don't really forsee things to go quietly after Nov. 23rd (or whenever that date is).

[Danny]

I agree. Syria is not interested in any compromise candidate...As for Aoun/Hariri meeting we'll see soon enough where it got us, the next time Aouny opens his mouth!
I think Aoun will stay the course with HA trying to act as the "glue". However all seems an excercise in futility. I did not hear HA name Aoun as their candidate. Was there a definitive announcement or was it just a support for his candidacy?
22 days and 8 hours to D day

[Blacksmith Jade]

Great post Abu Kais - every sentence was well worded and presented all the nuances of the situation (which is a relief from some of the garbage I've had to read recently...)

You hit the nail on the head ;)

[Hazbani]

Still it seems to me, as an out sider, that Hizb. holds several cards. Still they are the party with the most guns and the best guns and they have already occupied Beiruth. And no body but no body will take an oath that there are abosultly no weapons near these tents. and you can do many things with such guns.
Most important card at any given time is th fact that they can always find a way to play the Israeli card. It seems that this aleady started and that the Hizb. is playing the game "why you are not shooting the Israeli planes". This is crazy comming from an organization that have more and better AA weapons than the Leb. army all in the name of the resistance. The natural response of the none Hizb. people should be : "you are the resistance ! we agreed to you having these weapons because of that so start resisting, now!". Will some body say some thing like that and stay alive? or are there enough stupids in Leb. to pick on the goverment because of that?

[ghassan karam]

Hazbani,
Your posts on this blog and on Jehas Nail have often demonstrated your deep concern about the Arab Israeli problem and a thorough understanding of the current Lebanese standoff, albeit from a rational perspective. This post of yours is no different.
You are absolutely correct when you say that HA is not to be dismissed because "Hizb. holds several cards". If they did not then we would not be in this pickle. But this should not be interpreted that HA will be eventually victorious. I will be the first to admit that one will have to be delusional to think that HA will not be able to create one obstacle after another. They have demonstrated that they are masters at this game of maintaining pressure on the government so that they will be able to proceed in executing their own pet projects. But it should be clear that HA will not be allowed to win in Lebanon because try as they may they will always be intimately connected to Iran. To be very blunt about this, the Arab league will be very uncomfortable with the increased influence of Iran ad thus will fight Iranian hegemony by marshalling all its assets. This implies that being anti HA will be beneficial in the short run but we must also admit the the Lebanese problem existed prior to the establishment of HA. This means that being "not HA " is not enough. March 14 , under the best of circumstances, keep on proclaiming that they are not HA. That is fine for the short run but will not be able to deliver us to the promised land of social justice, liberty and at least non sectarianism. What Lebanon needs , as much as a plant needs light, is to vanquish the reactionary forces of HA and its allies in the short run but equally importantly Lebanon needs a total and uncompromising paradigm shift in its political system in the long run. The current system is the problem and unless we recognize that nothing major will be accomplished.

[LebExile]

This is a great post, and as has been stated several times above, hits the nail on the head. However, I dont believe HA can achieve much if they should attempt a coup.

Firstly, they may be armed, but then again, so is nearly every household in Beirut - and Lebanon...

Secondly, the army may not be strong enough to defeat HA alone, but, given the amount of international support and good will, I am sure the US, France, Germany, or whatever country will be willing to send in troops to rescue the government. If not, at least send in better arms - like they did with the Nahr Bared battle.

Thirdly, I dont believe Hez believe they can take on the rest of the Lebanese. Aoun followers certainly wont fight against their co-religionists for Iran, and neither will the palestinians. Hez will be isolated quickly, and would lose the "Weapons would never be used against fellow Lebanese" canard.

Finally, regardless of Has' speeches, I dont believe Hez have nearly as many rockets as they claim to have... some may be true, but, must I believe is bluff.

Come November 24, you will see, whether or not March 14 reach a compromise or elect on 50+1 basis, the day/week/month will pass by peacefully, although, Has will probably vent his frustration in another interview from his RAT HOLE on Manar.

[ali bm]

still depending on al-seyassah? a whole argument based on that newspaper and on other spurious reports will not get you anywhere near the truth.

there is no increased presence in downtown by hezbollah and i would know, i actually work there.

as for the coup, why will hezbollah carry out a coup now when it could have done so when it was in a stronger position when it started the protests and sit-ins? what does it have to benefit from such a step? hezb knows that no president appointed by them will recieve any shred of international legitimacy so what do they stand to gain?

i believe that hezb has no interest what so ever in seeing the country go down in another blody civil war because it would then be caught on two fronts: an internal front and israel/unifil on its back.

but let us look at the other side of the picture: what happens if March 14 elect their own president. well in my opinion, and in the best case scenario where there will be no second government or coup or whatever, the situation will remain the SAME. the opposition will boycott the president, the government will remain controlled by one faction, no matter what changes the new regime intoduces, the assassinations and bombings will continue because, let us face it, when has lebanon been terrorist free in its history? the current crop of rulers will remain in office, corruption will continue unchecked, the regime will talk to hezbollah about disarming and well go nowhere...

[LebExile]

True, but a March 14 president can request international military assistance, as well as appoint the ambassadors in all embassies, as well as withdraw ambassadors - and shut down embassies.

for example, how embarrasing would it be for Hez if the Lebanese president withdraws the ambassador from Iran, and shuts down that embassy - due to state sponsored terrr???

[Bad Vilbel]

LebExile, I don't believe for one second that the French, Germans or anyone else will come to the aid of the LAF in the case of a civil war or internal confrontation. You're really dreaming if you think they're going to embark in any such adventure for our sake, at the very high cost of their home public opinion (see Iraq). Not gonna happen. SPECIALLY not to take sides in a civil war. The French, Germans, and whoever else have not taken sides in a civil war (militarily) for decades now (see various African civil wars). They are not about to start.

Ali BM,

There is definitely some merit to your comment. I can see how Iran (and therefore Hezballah) would not be too interested in getting squeezed into an actual civil war at the moment. And how we could possibly end up with yet more government paralysis and non-functional status after Nov. 24th.
That's not to say that Hezballah is not still playing a dangerous game, and still trying for a coup without having to "spend" their assets in a civil war (hence the continuing blackmailing and threats, hoping that M14 caves in and "compromises"). It's pretty much a game of chicken. And I, for one, have advoctated calling Hezb's bluff for this very reason. If we don't call them on it now, we're simply looking at a non-functional state of affairs for years to come. Let's call it now. Once and for all! Either take us to civil war, if that's what you really want, or shut the fuck up, disarm, and go away. The "non-functional" status quo, is, in my opinion, worse than a civil war, for the future of the country.

[LebExile]

Another thing with electing a March 14 President.. The military intelligence and command can finally be purged of most Syrian appointed stooges. It's been a never ending story of how most of the old guard has been protected by the president...

just my opinion.

[Danny]

BV

right on brother...Quoting the immortal words of Yorgo Bush " Bring 'em on!"...Let's see what can Hassoon do besides blowing hot air from his hole in the ground!

[Lover]

"I agree. Syria is not interested in any compromise candidate..." - Danny

Rice: Lebanon should not compromise with pro-Syrian opposition

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2007/11/rice_lebanon_sh.php

You say what now? The masters are starting to give their puppets in M14 orders. Tommorow you will see how the talks between Oun and Harriri fall like a leaf.

What is it to her to tell Lebanese who they should or shouldn't compromise with? How fucking dare her say the LEBANESE should not compromise with the opposition - why what is the oppositions populance, bangolis?

Please Danny, check the facts before you open your mouth. The Syrians and Iranians talk day in and out of liking to see a compromise in Lebanon. Even if they didn't, the Americans tell the whole world overtly that they are against any kind of compromise. They therefore prefer civil war than a peaceful settlement. Typical dikhead neo-cons.

I still can't believe our politicians travel to America and bumlick the Bush administration and put their hands in theirs - knowing that Lebanese lives could have been saved had the US called for a ceasefire in the Summer War.

Yes yes I know the story of Hezbollah starting the war. But in diplomacy, Hezbollah does not have the power to stop it - only the Israeli cabinet (the biggest proof that the Israelis were on the offensive not Hezbollah) or the 'International Community' i.e. America.

[Bad Vilbel]

Lover,

Your masters in Damascus have been sabotaging negotiations for months now, making them "fall like a leaf" through Berri and others like him. Funny how you never pointed THAT out.

[Danny]

Romeo,

That crap of yours only works on your sheep masses in Lebanon. Rice's comments were aimed at your Syrian butcher masters...
Iran and Syria do not want a compromise candidate...they are only good in USING the word. Their "translation" IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. So cut it out and stuff it!!
The Hizbos off course do not follow Iran or Syrian masters' demands. Not long ago your black turban "donated" our bodies, limbs and all for the creaky Khameini's amusement...

[Solomon2]

Lover, let me say now that I feel sure that Israel will start the next war, too. Because Israel is simply too small to allow hostile neighbors to build themselves up until they can eliminate the country in a single, massive blow. That's what the Syrians, Egyptians, and Soviets were about to do in 1967, and what the Iranians, Syrians, and Hezbollah are doing now. For Nasrallah says, "Resistance" isn't a choice anymore for him - he and his supporters are doing their best to make killing Israel a reality. Since Israel will fight to prevent that, and Hezbollah likes to fight from populated areas, the death of lots of Lebanese while the world is condemning Lebanese conduct is assured - unless Lebanon chooses another way.

How can you tell Rice's comment is dictating to puppets? Maybe she is just letting herself be manipulated by the M14 gang, who now feel they have greater power as a result.

[Lover]

"Maybe she is just letting herself be manipulated by the M14 gang, who now feel they have greater power as a result."

Are you SERIOUS?

Didn't you crack up when you was typing that really gay sentence. A top US official being manipulated by a bumnch of weeping, ass-licking and flip-flopping politicians in a unknown ARAB country half the size of Israel?

I feel so sorry for you if you think a US politician or official can be manipulated by anyone. A whole EU body can't do that, you think Ja3Ja3 and Jumblat can? You are so pathetic.

[Cedar Revolution / Gebran's Sons]

Excellent post AK, not much to add except that I don't put much hope on Aoun seeing the light. He has been, since 1559, a major disappointment at all levels: leadership, vision, strategy, intellect, temper, and associations. His alliance with Hizbollah is similar to an alliance with apartheid just before its demise. He has willingly selected tyranny over democracy and mini-states over sovereighnty for the sole hope of becoming president. He is a political prostitute and will always known as a useful idiot and the hired assassin of the Cedar Revolution. He is a perfect caricature of a donkey blindly following a carrot that he can never reach while stepping and destroying every democratic institution in the process and threatening the survivability of the Christian community in Lebanon. Jeha, where are you when we need you to create this caricature with Der General having a donkey body, following a carrot and stepping and destrying the Saraye, Bkerke, Cedar Revolution, etc..

[Danny]

Romeo, AKA lost hizbo sacrficial lamb...

To quote from Manar's site:
I think there is a lot of talk right now about compromise," she told journalists on a plane taking her to Ankara for talks with Turkish leaders on Kurdish rebels.

"There are a lot of discussions going on. That is fine," she added before a stopover in Ireland. "But any candidate for president or any president needs to be committed to Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, needs to be committed to resolutions that Lebanon has signed on to ... and needs to be committed to carrying on the tribunal**

Guess who said these?. Just in case you do NOT understand...Where the FUCK, excuse my french (since you seem to be on constant opium fix)do you see anything wrong you numb nut??OOPs..It fits!

She just said....Where the hell did she intrude?? At least March 14 has two Steel Balls..JJ..Not like the black turbaned groundhog that preaches from his hole somewhere...

[Joe,]

Lover wrote:
"...knowing that Lebanese lives could have been saved had the US called for a ceasefire in the Summer War."

You mean to tell us you (and the Hezb you defend) actually value human life?! Wow, I am shocked.

[Hazbani]

Hazbani thinking.
It was nice to hear from lover that no body can influence the ME policy of the USA while the official position of Syria and Hizb. is that it is made in Israeli Jerusalem.

No outsider knows the real fire power of the Hizb. But to start a war they need no more than twenty or perhaps, at most, 50 small missiles.

This argument about the USA not calling for a stop to the Israel-Hizb. war is strange. Well, they are calling for it right now for the next 50 years [ these are the UN demands that the Hizb. rejects ]and they were doing so before the capturing the two Israeli soldiers [these were the UN etc.]. It was they + UN who enforced the last one. Why would some body think that this USA, which is not influenced by small states as he say, should tune its acts according to the exact timing of the Hizb.

Is lover saying that the Hizb. counted on the USA and the Israeli government to stop this war exactly at the Hizb. demand and some how these two devils failed even in that? bad bad bad Israel, bad bad bad USA.

Yes, if and when Israel will know that it is going to be attacked it will act. So will any state, see Turkey in relations to Iraq lately. Thus the best thing, for a small and poor state like Lebanon [that is getting poorer daily by the rising oil, wheat and steel price, guess where is the money going ]to say that for the next fifty years [in the 51th it will be reconsidered ] it should stop being the tip of the sword of the Arabs and Islam [this is called resistance now] and some other entity will take this great and respected role, for a while, any how.

Any time I hear about resistance I start thinking about the Druz people in the Golan - all Syrian citizens, all having the best 50 years in their history, all making the best of Israeli eduction and social sevices all travelling any place any where in both Syria and Israel, all making a lot of money [and then some more], one just opened a dental clinque in Haifa. They are resisting continously and vigorously for the last 40 years and not a bullet or missled was fired in their direction or from it in the last war. This is the way to resist.

[fubar]

(AP) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - Iran's top diplomat says the U.S. and Israel are pressuring Interpol to put five Iranians and one Lebanese on its most wanted list next week for the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center that killed 85 people.

But the lead prosecutor in Argentina's worst terror attack says the case is not political. Prosecutors say they have enough evidence for Interpol's 186-member general assembly to approve "red notices" for the six suspects during a meeting that opens Monday in Marrakech, Morocco.

There have been no convictions 13 years after an explosives-laden van leveled the seven-story Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

Argentine prosecutors allege Iranian officials orchestrated the bombing and entrusted the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah to carry it out.

Mohsen Baharvand, Iran's top diplomat in Argentina, insisted the Iranians were not involved in the attack and accused the United States and Israel of using the case as a political weapon against Iran.

"They try to bother Iran for many reasons," Baharvand told The Associated Press "They try to politicize the technical organizations in every corner of the world against Iran."

A red notice means a suspect is wanted for possible extradition. While it does not force countries to arrest or extradite suspects, people with red-notice status appear on Interpol's equivalent of a most-wanted list.

The case poses one of the toughest challenges for the international police liaison group based in Lyon, France, which mostly deals with routine police requests.

In Marrakech, Interpol is expected to outline arguments from both Argentina and Iran. If a simple majority decides in Argentina's favor, the notices will be issued. Iran has asked that the issue be delayed until next year, a request expected to be voted on first.

"Iran has been permanently trying to politicize this," Argentine prosecutor Alberto Nisman said before flying to Marrakech. "We are going to Morocco with our truth and we are going to explain why these persons are being sought, as simple as that."

The July 18, 1994 attack struck hard at Argentina's 200,000-member Jewish community, Latin America's largest. It came just two years after a bombing that shattered Israel's embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29.

Many here remain indignant that no one has been convicted for the community center blast. Several Argentine suspects — civilians and former police officers accused of providing support to the bombers — were cleared in a trial three years ago.

Victims' relatives have complained for years that the investigation was bungled. Amid allegations he paid a key witness, the investigating judge on the case was removed and later impeached.

Now Argentine officials and Jewish community leaders hope Interpol can give a boost to the country's beleaguered justice system.

"Today the world is preoccupied by terrorism," said Aldo Donzis, president of the Delegation of Israeli-Argentine Associations. "There are ever-fewer countries who do not live without worry for (terrorists') actions."

Iran's constitution does not allow citizens to be extradited in cases like the bombing, Baharvand said. Instead, Iranian officials have proposed that Argentina agree to legal and judicial cooperation that would let Tehran share information on the case.

Argentina has turned down the proposal.

Among the suspects wanted by Argentina are former Iranian intelligence chief Ali Fallahian, former leader of the elite Revolutionary Guards Mohsen Rezaei, and Hezbollah militant Imad Moughnieh, one of the world's most sought-after terror suspects.

Moughnieh is wanted for his alleged role in the kidnapping of Westerners in Lebanon in the 1980s, and suicide attacks on the U.S. Embassy and a Marine base in Lebanon that killed more than 260 Americans. His whereabouts are unknown.

Interpol denied Argentina's request for red notices for former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as the country's former foreign minister and ambassador to Buenos Aires.

"They should come and testify here if they say they are innocent," said Adriana Resfield, whose 35-year-old sister was killed in the bombing. "So far they have refused to come and that raises even more suspicions."

******************

What a lucky guy Rafsanjani is. He walks away from murders in Germany because of his diplomatic status and now he walks away from murders in Argentina because of his diplomatic status. State sponsored terrorism can never be effectively countered by law enforcement for this very reason. Will the Hariri tribunal be any different? We shall see.

Justice delayed is justice denied. The world, and people in general, have a very short memory unless they are personally touched by terrorism.

Today is the 28th anniversary of the violation of international law by forcibly entering upon sovereign US territory in Tehran, Iran, and taking US citizens, representatives, and diplomats hostage - for 444 days.

Ironic that Iran hides behind the very rules of international diplomatic immunity that it frequently flaunts to suit its own needs.

"When civilized men can no longer stomach the horrors of war, they will be conquered by uncivilized men who can.

You either fight or you surrender. There is no middle ground.

Posted by: fubar | Wednesday, June 13, 2007 at 11:33 PM"

Iran has perfected the use of the West's sensitivities and progressive enlightenment against the West. The barbarians are at the gate. The day of decision draws near.

[Jeha]

Hezbo' cannot be easily dismissed, but I do caution against thinking it is not expandable; anyone who sold themselves to foreign powers needs to bear in mind that whoever bought you them has done so only to sell them...

What remains to be revealed in this round of gaming is simply who is doing the buying, and who is doing the selling... A while ago, the great Byzance let down her "allies". More recently, it was the "mother" who let down her "children", most of whom appear to have learned the lesson. Today, the Persians may well go for another Erzerum-style agreement, and leave their "allies" to pay the price.

... BTW, sorry for the recent paucity of cartoons. But it feels that the politicians are taking care of cartooning things for us...

[fubar]

(AP via JPost) The Bush administration, trying to combat Syrian attempts to reassert control over Lebanon's political system, said Monday it was imposing economic sanctions against four people.

The Treasury Department announced that it was freezing any assets the four individuals might have in US financial institutions. The action also prohibits any US citizen from engaging in transactions with the four.

"Syria has used all means at its disposal - from bribery to intimidation to violence - to undermine the legitimate political process in Lebanon," Treasury Undersecretary Stuart Levey said in announcing the sanctions. "Today's action exposes four individuals involved in such activities and serves as a warning to others who would do likewise."

Treasury identified two of the people as Assaad Halim Hardan, a member of Lebanon's parliament and chief of the Syrian Socialist National Party central political bureau, and Wi'am Wahhab, a former member of Lebanon's parliament. Treasury said both men work with senior Syrian officials to undermine Lebanese sovereignty.

[fubar]

AK, the other two are Syrians. The Treasury Press Release is here:

http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/hp666.htm

[ghassan karam]

Could it be that the reason that we are having such a hard time in selecting a Lebanese president without outside interferences is that ,besides the first two and possibly Charles Helou, Lebanon has never exercised its prerogative in choosing its own president? If the above is true( and I am not sure that it is) then it goes a long way in explaining the inability of all parties to behave as if Lebanese sovereignty matters. What country besides Lebanon would go around the world shopping for foreign interpretations of what its constitution means. Isn't there any shred of integrity left anywhere? Instead of asking the Syrians, the Iranians, the Saudis, the EU or the US for guidance couldn't we just reconstitute what should have never been dissolved in the first place, the Constitutional Council whose judgements cannot be appealed? I ask you is this system worth saving and why?

[The Other Tony]

Ghassan and others,

I understand the frustration in what can be labelled incompetence or the inability to properly function as a sovereign state. However, to be fair to the ruling coalition, I'm sure they are mindful of potential repurcussions from the Opposition (be it Hizbullah, Syria or Iran) should they elect a President not of the Opposition's liking. Hence the need for international support.

[Bad Vilbel]

What country besides Lebanon would go around the world shopping for foreign interpretations of what its constitution means.

No other country.

Isn't there any shred of integrity left anywhere?

Was there ever any to start with? Nope.

Instead of asking the Syrians, the Iranians, the Saudis, the EU or the US for guidance couldn't we just reconstitute what should have never been dissolved in the first place, the Constitutional Council whose judgements cannot be appealed?

Why bother?

I ask you is this system worth saving and why?

No it is not.. See above answers for the "why".