Trouble in paradise: Hizbullah and Iran divided

Over the past few weeks, we have heard conflicting statements by Hizbullah officials regarding their preferred presidential candidate. Some in Hizbullah named Michel Aoun, others said Aoun wasn't the only candidate. In a recent speech, Nasrallah described that candidate but failed to give him a name. Pro-Hizbullah al-Akhbar ran a story yesterday claiming Nasrallah told the Maronite patriarch that Hizbullah's candidate was Aoun. However, Hizbullah's second in command Naim Qassem was quoted by the Daily Star as saying, "Hizbullah prefers not to name a presidential candidate at the present time. We will reveal our candidate in due time."

Al-Seyassah argues that this indecisiveness is a result of division in Hizbullah's leadership, which is split into pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian lines.  Hassan Nassrallah leads the pro-Syrian camp and favors army commander Michel Suleiman, while Naim Qassem leads the second and is awaiting clear instructions from Iran. Iran is reportedly weighing the matter against the situation in Iraq and its nuclear file.

And it's not like Iran is speaking with one voice. To quote the Economist, "it is seldom clear precisely who calls the shots in Iran." Their chief nuclear negotiator and head of the national security council, Ali Larijani, who was also handling the Lebanese file with the Saudis, has resigned on Saturday, apparently without his knowledge. Larijani, who is close to Khamenei was quickly replaced by someone close to Ahmadinejad, in what appears to be a power struggle between the supreme leader and the Iranian president. The Europeans tasted this struggle first hand during talks in Rome:

The EU's top diplomat said on Wednesday Iran's new chief nuclear negotiator was upstaged by his predecessor at Rome talks, warning that "multiple players" from Iran could further complicate negotiations with the West.

Javier Solana met Iran's newly appointed chief negotiator Saeed Jalili for the first time on Tuesday. But the European Union foreign policy chief said that former chief negotiator Ali Larijani, also in Rome, appeared to be leading the Iranian team. (Reuters)

Khamenei is not happy with Ahmadinejad's power show. Iran's constitution places executive power in the hands of the supreme leader, something Ahmadinejad is apparently trying to change. How this will affect Lebanon and Hizbullah remains to be seen. One thing is certain. Hizbullah finds itself being asked to commit to a Lebanese decision at a time its foreign-imported political structure forbids it from functioning as a Lebanese political player.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Maybe, or maybe this is just for show. I don't believe for an instant that Hezballah are that divided as to explain so many conflicting comments from their ranks.

Either way, it matters very little, pro-Iranian or pro-Syrian faction, it's all non-Lebanese, it's all anti-Lebanese, and it all sucks. Like picking between horse shit and cow shit. It's all still shit and it stinks about the same.

[Danny]

A lot of changes are happening in Iran. I do not know if it has any beneficial effect as far as Lebanon is concerned. It seems more like an internal power struggle between Rasfanjani and Khameini. I do not believe that it is Khameini vs AMJAD(Street Sweeper). Besides Larinjani it seems like the foreign minister Mottaki might bolt as well... Let's hope Rasfanjani's pragmatic side wins at the end! I believe these resignations are not because of weakness but strenght! I think it is a strategic manoever to expose Amjad and hopefully topple him (or isolate hime till 2009).

[Danny]

BV,

Cow shit is still useful as fertilizer...

[ghassan karam]

A less focused and a weaker HA is nothing to sneeze at but its internal divisions, if they exist, should not distract from the primary goal of creating a viable, modern and sustainable democracy in Lebanon . There is no room in such a democracy for any theocracy whether it be strong. weak, united or divided.

[Solomon2]

Tomorrow's Daily Star reports:Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in his latest speech, accused Syria of plotting the string of political assassinations which took place over the past few years

Typo? Wishful thinking? Or could it be true? Better check it out fast before the text changes.

[fubar]

"And it's not like Iran is speaking with one voice."

Nothing new there. Multiple voices, all telling variants of the same lies.

"Khamenei is not happy with Ahmadinejad's power show. Iran's constitution places executive power in the hands of the supreme leader, something Ahmadinejad is apparently trying to change."

I think you are totally wrong on that one.

The internal power struggle is not between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad.

Danny says, "Let's hope Rasfanjani's pragmatic side wins at the end!"

You are very naive if you think that Rafsanjani is any better. Rafsanjani is only smoother, just as devious but in a more palatable way.

Just saying...

*****

Solomon,

Very funny. I suppose we can expect the Daily Star to be either either sued or bombed within the next week.

[M.]

the error you pointed out from the DS ya solomon2 is quite hilarious. i wonder how that got past the editing team.

[Super Dude]

I can't decide which is more amusing, the story or the typo.

[ghassan karam]

M,
What editing team? You must not be a regular reader of the DS :-)

[anon]

Ghassan; Smart observation .Straight to the point ........lol

[Umm K.]

The poor DS. I actually feel so sorry for them. Lebanon needs a high quality English daily but it's just no there yet...

[LebExile]

Typo has been fixed... I missed it!!

[LebExile]

Going back to the current blog post, I dont believe that Hez are divided at all. This is just for show as has been pointed out... Hez are cutting Claoun loose... he is no longer needed.. Iran needs Hez to be a threat to Israel - not Lebanon ... so, they need to get the Sunni back on side - that has been their main priority for the last few months ... notice all the moderate statements about Saad while they blast Geagea and Jumblatt...

The Hez know that they cant defeat the Sunni allied to the Christians and Druze...

The presidential elections will be the firing shot --- hez want this to be a battle between Muslim Vs Christian - rather than Sunni Vs Shia.

[Lover]

"Hez want this to be a battle between Muslim Vs Christian"

Why would they want that at all? And since when have they ever been hostile to the Christians?

[Lover]

"Lebanon only has two neighbours. Neither of them has an embassy in Beirut. Neither of them has normal diplomatic relations with Lebanon. Both of them have occupied, or are continuing to occupy (parts of) Lebanon. Neither of them is interested in a truly sovereign, effectively independent, united Lebanon. Both of them have an inherent vested interest in destabilizing Lebanon and preventing it to grow or flourish in any domain. Both of them are accused of being behind the current assassination campaign: M14 accuses Syria, M8 accuses Israel. Yesterday, the family of the assassinated ex-leader of the Lebanese Communist Party, Georges Hawi (June 21, 2005) announced that it has filed a lawsuit against Israel’s Mossad whom they accuse of having plotted Hawi’s assassination. They accuse the Lebanese authorities of ‘overlooking the issue of political assassinations and focusing on the murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri solely’. They could have added that even in that one case, the Lebanese authorities (as well as the UN investigating commission) have only and consistently followed one track - the Syrian one."

[Bad Vilbel]

Lover, your post sounded pretty good, till you started bringing up the assassinations.

While I am not privvy to the evidence, and therefore cannot prove one way or the other who committed the assassinations, there is overwhelming logical, rational, and meaningful indications that Syria would be behind them.

- Israel had nothing to gain by killing any of those guys.
- Israel has nothing to gain by weakening Lebanon. It's a weak central Lebanese government that allows Hezballah to threaten their northern borders. Why would they want that?
- Syria has in fact made numerous overt threats against various of the people who were killed.
- If Israel is behind the assassinations, why is Hezballah so opposed to the investigation and tribunal? You'd think they'd be falling all over themselves helping out the investigation and bringing evidence to the table against Israel. Hezb is always so good at making accusations about the mossad being behind this or that, and they always say they have evidence it's the mossad who did it. Why not bring the evidence to the public and to the UN and to whoever else?
- Syria has everything to gain by weakening M14, and having a weak Lebanon at the moment. As you stated in the opening of your quote.
- Israel would love nothing more than a pro-Western strong Lebanese government that would disarm Hezbollah, and make peace with Israel. Why would they go assassinating the guys who might make that happen in Lebanon?
- Hezballah and Assad are always accusing M14 guys of secretly working with Israel. By Hezb's own logic, wouldn't that make it ok for them to kill what they deem "collaborators"? That would certainly make more sense than Israel killing off its own collaborators.

In other words, by anyone's logic, even Hezballah's twisted logic, it STILL doesn't make sense for Israel to be behind these assassinations. And it makes perfect sense for Syria to be behind them.

But...I'm sure in the fantasy world where the least plausible and least rational ideas prevail, there's some sort of cockamamie explanation as to why Israel is offing its own allies, helping out Hezb and Syria control Lebanon, and threaten its own northern borders....yup. I'm sure if you try hard enough you could explain that one.

[anon]

Aaaaagh...........Romeo is back!I hope no one bothers to answer him.Maybe it will enter his thick head that no one likes his presence here.Like all "ghullaz" he goesn't realise how " ghaleez" he is.Fuck off!

[Super Dude]

Lover who are you quoting?

[LebExile]

...since when have they ever been hostile to the Christians...

you got to be kidding... are you serious and do you seriously expect me to answer this??

[LebExile]

Hez are inciting the christians precisely to antogonise them and threaten them with their weapons...at the same time, they give concilitary remarks to Saad, yet they cannot stand Senyoura... there is a dilemma here!!! how can they get the Sunni to side with them and destroy the Cedar revolution - and break apart March 14????

The only problem is that even though Aoun claims he is the father of the cedar revolution, or that Amin Gemayel takes credit for it, or LF or FPM or whoever, it was the assasination of Hariri that lit the fuse... the Revolution is in fact a revolution in that the Sunni shifted from Pan-Arabism to becoming nationalist and Pro-Lebanon...

For Hez to win over the Sunni - will effectivly kill the cedar revolution and weaken the christians...

If Saad goes on TV tonight and declares that he does not believe that Syria is behind his fathers assasination... and that he wants them to stop the international investigation... Further if Saad decides to have an MoU with Hez or that they become pro-Syria... do you think that hez will give a shit about Claoun... or his MoU with Claoun????

The only reason Hez is allied to Claoun at this point in time is because they need to appear that they have some support with the other communities - and that they are not bullies hanging on to their weapons... if the Sunni come on board... they wont even need to pretend... then they can go after the infedels openly!!!

[Bruno]

BV: "But...I'm sure in the fantasy world where the least plausible and least rational ideas prevail,"

It is not as if rationality has anything to do with it. Israel being behind the assassinations is the fundamental axiom from which all sorts of conclusions are deduced, not the result of a careful evaluation of available facts.

Engaging Lover and his ilk on this is like debating virgin birth with hard core catholics.

[Najad]

On what is happening in Iran!
Iran : la guerre des clans fait rage au sein du pouvoir 24.10.2007

Here is the gist an URL so that you are not angry at me.
Le Figaro, 25 octobre – Par Delphine Minoui - Ahmadinejad avance ses pions face au Guide suprême Ali Khamenei, dont le pouvoir semble battu en brèche.

Rien ne va plus au sommet du pouvoir iranien. La visite de Vladimir Poutine à Téhéran, la semaine dernière, qui avait pour objectif de tenter de sortir le dossier nucléaire de l'impasse, n'a fait qu'exacerber les tensions opposant, autour de la question de la poursuite de l'enrichissement d'uranium, deux factions du clan conservateur : les jusqu'au-boutistes du président Ahmadinejad et les pragmatiques autour du négociateur principal, Ali Larijani, plus enclins à un compromis avec l'Occident.

En apparence, les deux hommes ont beaucoup de points communs. Ils ont officié, par le passé, au sein du Corps des Gardiens de la révolution. Ils militent, l'un comme l'autre, contre la suspension des activités nucléaires iraniennes. Ali Larijani, 49 ans, s'est fait remarquer, il y a trois ans, en reprochant à l'équipe de négociation précédente, sous le mandat de Khatami, d'être trop conciliante et d'être prête à céder « la perle » nucléaire contre « le bonbon » proposé par les Européens, c'est-à-dire une coopération nucléaire civile, économique et politique....Read it all.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/20071025.FIG000000464_iran_la_guerre_des_clans_fait_rage_au_sein_du_pouvoir.html

[Najad]

What is awaiting the Christians if Hizb like Hams takes over.

Gaza Christians: Persona Non-Grata
The Guardian reports that Gaza's 3,000 Christians are living in fear:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2196828,00.html

"Everything has changed. In the times of my father and grandfather, there was no difference between Muslims and Christians," said Ibrahim Ayad, another brother of the victim. "The Islamic revival has also brought intolerance in its wake." . He said he would leave Gaza as soon as he had identified his brother's killers and got retribution.
He estimated that 70% of the Christian community would leave when they had the opportunity, possibly at Christmas, when Israel usually allows Christians some movement out of Gaza.

He said many Muslims perceived Christians as "Kuffars", or unbelievers, which meant they were not subject to the same laws as Muslims.
Note the Moslem Brotherhood platform for Egypt:

Now the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has produced a political platform providing its vision for Egypt. And it looks even more like Islamist Iran than one would have suspected. The key proposal is for a committee of Muslim clerics to pass on the validity of all legislation and government policies, just as it is done in Tehran. By this definition, then, Islamic law-as interpreted by the clerics-would govern Egypt. This in itself shows that its goal is an Islamist state and not a pluralist or democratically governed one.

In addition, neither a woman nor a non-Muslim can be either president or prime minister. And the peace treaty with Israel would be abrogated.

But this was not, contrary to media reports, the first such platform. The 2004 version states: "Our mission is to implement a comprehensive reform in order to uphold God's law in secular as well as religious matters."

The program includes the following points, as explained by Adel Guindy, "The Islamization of Egypt,"
"The media should be cleansed of anything that disagrees with the decrees of Islam."
"The economic system should be "derived from Islam."
"The focus of education should be on learning the Quran by heart."
"The Zakah [Islamic private charitable] institutions should be in charge of distributing wealth and income."
"Women should only hold the kind of posts that would preserve their virtue."
"Our culture has to be derived from Islamic sources."

[ghassan karam]

What Najad has posted should be further proof for those that have up until know seen it advantageous to deny reality that HA is no compatible with democracy. No theocratically inspired party can ever be democratic. Supporting HA is nothing short of placing the whole Lebanese project in peril.

[Najad]

+++THE DAILY STAR (Lebanon) 28 Oct.'07:"Lebanon and the Lebanese need a lot
more than just a new president"

QUOTE:"the cultures of corruption and
impunity will remain intact"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EXCERPTS:Editorial
Negotiations to end the political impasse in Lebanon are taking place on
several levels both inside the country and abroad, but the principal players
seem not to recognize the urgency of the situation.... In the end, the deal
that saves the Lebanese will have to be agreed - and respected - by
Lebanese. ... in many instances officials from other countries seem more
concerned about the welfare of the Lebanese than do their own leaders. The
latter ... collectively fiddle while Lebanon burns. Nonetheless, both the
government and the opposition continue to claim that their positions are
rooted in a desire to serve the best interests of the public. If that were
true, the pace of the current contacts would be nothing short of
relentless - and they would have begun long ago.
No, the priority of the political elite remains what it has always been in
this country: to protect itself. Beirut's "authority" is an unfunny joke at
the best of times, and with the power struggle having paralyzed what few
functioning arms the state ever had, those in positions in influence are
fostering their own interests by arranging and/or renewing sweetheart deals
for their relatives and cronies. This can only ensure that however the
political crisis plays out, the cultures of corruption and impunity will
remain intact - and that the unscrupulous crooks who have always benefited
from them will find a way to keep riding the gravy train.
... The real challenge, therefore, is not to pick a president: It is to
fundamentally change the way Lebanon is governed.