Sherlock Nasrallah celebrates Quds day

Nasrallah has given Lebanon a choice: go with Syria's choice for president, or let Hizbullah pick a president through direct elections. 

This has been the choice for quite some time, ever since Aoun accepted to be Hizbullah's partner, in return for an endorsement. The general waited and waited, and today it came. Sadly, Nasrallah couldn't even bother mentioning him by name. Instead, he listed qualities that the former general sees in himself. And the people were left to guess, Ramadan game show style, who Nasrallah was referring to. And it might not even be Aoun.

Nabih Berri's dialogue got some of this bizarre endorsement too. After weeks of talks about the "program" and refusing to discuss names, Nasrallah declared his "opposition", saying he wants to agree on the name, and not the program, because Lebanon is ruled through the cabinet. And no, this revelation does not mean Nasrallah will end the siege of the government building, and recognize the authority of the Siniora's cabinet. It just means that Berri should spare us his time-buying "dialogue" and look into settling in Switzerland.

But let's rewind. Nasrallah began his speech with praise for Khomeini, followed by the usual Palestinian cause talk, to Syria being victim of a US-Israeli plot to allegedly destroy the last bastion of resistance. From all this, we learn that the Israeli air attack was designed to drag Syria into war. Moving on to Iraq, Nasrallah tells his viewers that the US-Israeli plot is creating a rift between Sunnis and Shias, and between Sunnis. Here, there is no mention of al-Qaeda or its massacres. He could have at least accused the Mossad of controlling Bin Laden. 

After much conspiracy talk, Nasrallah lands in Lebanon, where Israel, he reveals, has been killing March 14 leaders, and Syria is being unjustly framed. Nasrallah's argument is based on his own "personal conviction" , and on precedents Israel allegedly established when it killed Jews in western and eastern Europe to force them to immigrate to Israel! (I'll let you analyze this one). 

And why not Israel, he addressed the living March 14 leaders and the families of the dead ones. "Are you their allies? Are you their brothers? Then what prevents Israel, morally and politically, from killing you?"

أنا لا أقول أنّ قوى 14 آذار تقتل قادتها وشخصياتها، وإنما أقول أنّ الإسرائيليين هم الذين يقتلون شخصيات وقيادات 14 آذار، إذا أحدٌ من 14 آذار يتعجب فيكون ذلك من العجيب أن يتعجب! لماذا لا يريدون قتلكم؟ هل أنتم أصدقاء إسرائيل لكي لا يقتلونكم، هل أنتم إخوانهم كي لا يقتلونكم، هل أنتم حلفاؤهم كي لا يقتلونكم؟ كلا وأنتم تقلون كلا ونحن نقول كلا، إذاً أنتم لستم حلفاؤهم ولستم أصدقاءهم ولستم إخوانهم، فما هو المانع الأخلاقي والسياسي من أن يُقدم الإسرائيليون على قتلكم؟ هذا أولا.

After clarifying that he is not accusing the families of the slain March 14 leaders of killing their fathers and husbands (as his buddies in Syria often do), he hurled this piece of evidence:

أنا لا اتهم أهالي الشهداء الذين يعملون بالليل والنهار من أجل إقامة المحكمة الدولية، ولكن اتهم إسرائيل نعم. ولاحظوا هذه العمليات الثلاث في أي منطقة جرت؟ كل المراقبين الأمنيين والأجهزة الأمنية تجمع أنّ هذا العمل الامني الذي نفّذ هو عمل دقيق ومحترف وبارع وأنّ الجهات التي نفذت هذه العمليات لديها إحاطة معلوماتية عالية وقدرة عملاتية عالية، في تلك المناطق من الأقوى، أليست الشبكات الإسرائيلية التي لها تاريخ تواجد أمني عريق في تلك المناطق ولها إحاطة معلوماتية ولها قدرة عملاتية؟ الذي له مصلحة أكيدة وقوية في الإغتيال في لبنان هي إسرائيل. لماذا أيضا لأنّ مشروع إسرائيل في لبنان هو مشروع الفتنة، مشروع أن يتقاتل اللبنانيون.

After singling out three assassinations – those of Tueni, Ghanem and Gemayel, which took place before important UN meetings concerning the tribunal— he concluded that Israel must have killed them because the assassinations took place in "areas where Israeli networks have a distinguished security presence".

Don't try to apply the same logic to the other assassinations, for apparently they don't even count.

Despite his hallucinations above, Nasrallah is not developing an interest in civil justice.  Wannabe Mahdi quickly jumped to the defense of the four generals that are currently in police custody waiting to be charged in the Hariri murder case. And then he assured us all that the Hariri tribunal is a waste of time, and that it will never stop the killers. As long as Israel is not the prime suspect, he said, the killing will continue "even if your form 100 tribunals".

أنا هنا وفي هذه الليلة المباركة أناشد وأطالب القضاء اللبناني أن يحكم ضميره وأن يتذكر أنّ له موقفا كبيرا بين يدي الله يوم القيامة، عندما يبقي أشخاصا في السجن ظلما وعدوانا فقط انسجاما مع الضغوط السياسية والقرارات والحسابات السياسية. في كل الأحوال، هناك فريق سياسي في لبنان جاهز، أي اغتيال وأي تفجير هو يحمل هذا الدم والمتهم جاهز وتركيب النتائج جاهزة، هم لا يوجهون فقط اتهام بل يتهمون ويقاضون ويحاكمون في آن واحد، ولذلك توغل إسرائيل في القتل. قلتم أنّ إقرار المحكمة الدولية يوقف القتل فلم يوقفه، وقلتم سابقا تشكيل لجنة تحقيق دولية يوقف القتل فلم توقف، وحتى لو تشكلت بالفعل وحقيقة، ما دام أنّ الذي يريد القتل في لبنان يحمل مشروعا سياسيا ويسفك دما من هذا النوع وهو بمنأى عن المحكمة الدولية وعن التحقيق الدولية وحتى عن اتهامكم وأعني إسرائيل، طالما أنّ القاتل الحقيقي بمنأى عن الإتهام والتحقيق وعن المحكمة ويحقق أغراضه فلو شكلتم مئة محكمة دولية فهو سيستمر في القتل.

Before you donate cash to found the Nasrallah Law School, consider the three options he gave the Lebanese:

First option: Let's agree on a president. Second: If we can't agree, we change the constitution and let the people choose the president. Third: if we can't agree on a president and don't want to change the constitution, let's hire 3 or 5 polling companies and let them pick the person MPs will vote for.

Note how in each of the three options there is no role for parliament. It's either a president Nasrallah likes, or a brand new country.

And who does Nasrallah like anyway?

  التجارب أثبتت أنه لا يخضع للضغوطات والسفارات  وليس النوايا الحسنة،التجارب تقول هذا رجل لا يخضع للضغوط ولا للسفارات ولا يخاف ولديه الشجاعة الكافية ويقدم المصلحة الوطنية  وحاضر أن يتحمل المسؤولية بجد وصادق ويفي بوعده، هذا  شخص الرئيس، هذا الشخص موجود "ونص" وبالتالي نستطيع أن نصل إليه ونتوافق عليه.بالنسبة لنا شخص الرئيس هو الذي يشكل الضمانة ليس الورقة  او الخطاب الذي يعلنه . تقول لي هذا رجل يلتزم بكلمته يفي بوعده صادق في وطنيته لا يخضع للضغوط  ولا للترهيب ولا للترغيب ولا يشرى بملايين الدولارات وطنه أغلى شيء عنده، اقول لك على رأسي هذا يشكل لي ضمانة، وهذا يقدر أن يكون رئيس جمهورية لبنان الذي يحمي لبنان ووحدته وسلمه واستقراره وأمنه ويقدر أن يبني فيه مع حكومة وحدة وطنية جدية، يقدر أن يبني دولة ويواجه كل التحديات والأخطار المقبلة على لبنان وعلى المنطقة.

Is it the man who must not be named, who "honored his promise" and is not subject to "pressure" and cannot be bought?

If your answer is Aoun, welcome to Nasrallah land: Admission is free, but your life is possessed by the ghost of the great "son of the Qur'an", the spirit of God, Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini.   

It's Quds day, people of Jerusalem. Haven't you heard the gunshots in Beirut? 

Comments

[Shunkleash]

I missed the speech because of something I do which he and his hizbteezee followers dont do...WORK!!

Unfortunate thing is, everytime this bearded watermellon crawls out of his hole to speak it confirms to the international community that the entire country is one giant funny farm. We have come full circle. We have gone from being the darling of the international community to one of those Woody Allen comedies that just is NOT funny. AND THAT my dear Watsons is the problem; no one is laughing.

It appears now that our cunny politicians, through there own procrastination and absolute stupidity, have allowed this loon to assume the mantle of "kingmaker", which he of course, has graciously accepted. As his first order of business, he has given the green light and free pass from the BBQ to any potential presidential candidate...who sees no evil, speaks no evil and hears no evil. You can bet every one of them heard the "syria approves consensus" threat. "You tow the line and you live, you don't and we guarantee you decorate the street". Now! Because the usual response from our pols is silence (or gibberish, take you pick it has the same effect), not a weep or a peep is going to be heard from the resident banana hungry baboons in the serail/Phoenicia hotel or the bird man in bkirki. However, I can just see Claoun, with his homer simpsonesque smile, actually believing that his boy Nas just made him a "shoe in". Problem is he doesn't realise that the shoe has a foot in it and they are about to jackie chan his demented ass! Picture him grabbing for his blackberri and texting his pals..you seeeeee!, you seeeeee!...I told you it was meeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...im so precious!

I can hear in the wind the strains of that old familiar ballad that comes to mind every time I think about lebanon and the jokers who are pretending to lead it...Old mcdonald had a farm E I E I O!!!!

Ayesh the farm

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm afraid to even begin to start to consider commenting on Nassrallah's speech. I think Abu Kais did a wonderful job showing it for the idiotic rant that it is. Unfortunately, I'm sure thousands of sheeple in Lebanon are busy firing their guns in the air as I type this, and swallowing Nassrallah's narrative hook, line and sinker.

Sad sad state of affairs over there.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

Revealing indeed.!
When Nasrallah talks about "direct elections" for presidency and "change the constitution", he in fact hints that the present and current Lebanese political structure is on the table, for negotiations. As we know, the last agreement on a political system was a post-war solution. So it is in fact a threat.
.

[Super Dude]

No warnings to Israel this time, like the last time?

You know surprises and such?

The only reason why this human entity is a heavy weight on the political scene is because he is full of shit. He also knows how to sell shit as sweet pink candy.

[JoseyWales]

This "election by the people" should be the ultimate proof to the blind-deaf opposition that Hezbo et al refuse TAEF while they've been lying about it forever.

Like Shunkleash and BV and the rest of you, I blame M14 and Siniora for getting here.

Sovereignty and liberty are NEVER lost in one instant or one installment. Even in Nazi Germany it was a gradual erosion.

We as a people and as nation and as leadership keep failing to see this.

I blame Siniora/Saniora for allowing the ILLEGAL sit-in. (No don't shoot anyone, just block downtown before the demo guys get there. See if Sayyed really means "no guns on the Lebs"). And for being SILENT most of the time, and INEFFECTIVE all of the time.

I blame idiot Sfeir (sincere apologies to his flock) with his 2/3 quorum wrong legal fucking opinion. Every time you think you are nice and give an inch they want 10 miles.

I blame M14 for not LEGALLY petitioning and opening parliament when Berri shut it down, and for still calling shit-Berri "respected colleague". The fuck should be as isolated as Lahoud.

I blame the biz community that is busy whoring itself and will in the end lose everything, fuck you.

And of course I blame 50 years-plus of Arabism and idiocy, but I repeat myself.

How else whould we have a Quds day in Lebanon? Hey moron Leb brothers how about solving our own problems? (Morons who will say it is MY problem: go to hell).

How else would be in a place where more than half the country believes that everything, including that rash in the genital region, is caused planned and executed by the JOOOOZZ.

[ken]

Such talk about the man who gave Lebanon a divine victory. The next one will be even more divine.

[Jeha]

So he spoke.

So did Aoun, with as much eloquence and far more "cause" back during the ill-fated "Liberation War".

Nothing changed back then, nothing will change now; no single "side" can hope to rule this country for themselves, without the other "sides" having a say so. Until we learn to accept the need to share this country, demagogues like Hass-Aoun will keep dragging us back.

Which means we're gonna be a while.

[JoseyWales]

Just saw this (NAHARNET)

Milquetoast strangle-yourself mofo Saniora responding to Nasrallah's accusation that Israel is behind the assassinations in Lebanon:

"No one brushed aside that possibility. It is likely."

This is the side supposedly standing up to Nasrallah and Syria? See my other comment above, Arabism/idiocy killed rationality a long time ago. (Even if Saniora believes that, the statement and its timing are political insanity).

Sfeir/Saniora approach: people are cutting your throat? Help them by offering to hone that blade. Khalli 3enak!

[JoseyWales]

Sorry me again,

While we're having that popular election (or poll) can we also ask people what they think of Hezbo's weapons and abide by that?

[Tony]

This is why I keep saying and writing that people who buy the charade that Hezbollah "abandoned" its platform to transform the Lebanese state and became "pragmatic" by "entering the political game" and has "Lebanonized" have no clue what they're talking about.

Thankfully, this is just the bankrupt rant of theocratic supreme guide wannabe from a hole somewhere.

[Shiznit]

Did Hassouna just call for the popular election of a Christian president? Or ANYONE elected by popular vote? I believe that he has just opened the door for a president of "his" choice. Another revolution plays out before our eyes....

[Charlie]

Josey,

This is what Saniora said:

"This proposal … is, in principle, against the constitution," the daily An Nahar on Saturday quoted Saniora's sources as saying.
"At the very least, one could say about this proposal that it would lead to one sect defeating the other," Saniora said.
On Nasrallah's accusations that Israel committed the serial killings in Lebanon to facilitate creation of an international tribunal that would be used to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, Saniora said: "No one brushed aside that possibility. It is likely."
However, Saniora, wondered that if Israel was behind those killings, "is it by chance that it chose its targets from March 14 only?"
Source: Naharnet

I know we don’t like some of the softer stands that Saniora has taken thus far, but what he said was his way of playing devils advocate and then disproving it.

[Blacksmith Jade]

Don't underestimate the particular choice of those three assassinations - especially the Gemayel one. Weapons never suddenly appear, and in most cases can be traced back...

...in Nahr el Bared many have been traced back to Iran - IF you want to give the benefit of the doubt to Gen. Suleiman, you could even say that thats what he meant when he said that Syria wasn't arming them (although it was passing on the arms purchased with Iranian alms)...IF!

Most likely, there is some connection between Hizballah and some of those Syrian-sponsored terror cells running around. Personally I would have thought "Sherlock" more clever than that, but I would venture that he has his hands tied more than we expect.

Nonetheless, that shouldn't be any reason for exoneration for continuously leading the country down the path its heading. While other, braver, men continue to die for their country and a vision of it, he has chosen to remain in his cave and let his masters have their way with our blood.

[Bad Vilbel]

Amen, Josey W. on all your comments.
This is ridiculous. I don't see this country ever changing its ways either. As Jeha said, we're gonna be a while.
As long as there are more than 3 people who actually believe demagogues like Nassrallah or Aoun, this shit's never gonna quit stinking. And lord knows there's more than 3...

[Joseywales]

Charlie,

I hear you, but how long can you respond "soft" to "hard"?

M8 is TRASHING the constitution at every turn and no one is calling them on it. Nas' proposal is "IN PRINCIPLE against the constitution" MY ASS.

It's illegal and unconstitutional period.

and so on...

[JoseyWales]

Sorry guys (and Shunkleash), rant mode is mine today.

Charlie,

Re Saniora, this is a battle of wits and cojones. You look wise the first 2, 3, 4, 5 times your are calm and reasonable and moderate. After that you look like an ineffectual fool and you LOSE.

[Super Dude]

Ok so the option of responding "hard" is what? Order the army to confiscate HA's weapons? Ask the UNIFIL to confiscate the weapons? Tell Sherlock to shut his pie hole? What?

[Charlie]

Josey,
I agree, it is frustrating like hell trying to argue with a group who is mocking everything we respect. Keep in mind if the M14 group pushes for a hard stand, they better be ready to follow through and have a plan (at the local and regional level) to win the fight. So far it seems to me the pieces are not fully in place to start this battle so we end up with what we have here today.
We all know Nasrallah is tasked with one and only one thing, turning Lebanon into a state member of the weilayet al-Faquieh, basically a state member of Khomini Land. So, why argue the constitution with him, let him rot in his hole.

[ghassan karam]

"Most likely, there is some connection between Hizballah and some of those Syrian-sponsored terror cells running around. Personally I would have thought "Sherlock" more clever than that, but I would venture that he has his hands tied more than we expect."

That is gibberish, with all due respect to Blacksmith Jade. Nasrallah cannot but take the position that he has. HA cannot be expected to support the Lebanese project. This should have been clear to the Lebanese political players a long time ago, how about 25 years ago. HA was created to be an extension of the vanguards of an Iranian Shia revolution and the HA leadership has never denied that and never will. The joke is on those that have failed to understand that fundamental differences between a democratic ,sovereign and civil experiment and that of a theocracy based on the unchallenged rule of the Imam. One reason for underestimating the strength of the contradiction is the deep belief of the March 14 players that HA could be Lebanonized. Events have shown how wrong they were. including Walid Jumblatt. But the PSP has come to its senses and it has proclaimed more than once the impossibility of having HA as a partner in a project that it does not believe in. The most two recent examples were the declaration by Abou Faour at Bkirki and then two days ago the strong and clear message by Chibli Mallat in his open letter to Nasrallah. BTW, the least that one would have expected from PM Saniora and Sa'ad Hariri would have been clear language similar to that of Mr. Mallat or at least an endorsement of these ideas.

Nasrallahs latest speech, if you want to call it that, does not even rise to the level of being a rant. It is simply the blatherings of a megalomaniac who is intoxicated by his own power.

To expect Nasrallah to act as a parliamentarian and HA as a democratic loving party is a collosal error in judgement. To believe that freedom loving democrats can have HA as a constructive partner is to believe that Stalin and Hayek could have formed an intellectual partnership. And yes pigs can fly.

[Blacksmith Jade]

Ghassan,

With all due respect, its not gibberish. In fact, there is nothing contradictory with what you posted and with what I posted - in the interpretation that I hold at least.

If you thought I meant that Nasrallah was actually a nice guy but some big bad Pasdaran boys had forced him to act mean - and that therefore we should like the guy - then no, my last paragraph, I had hoped, should have cleared that up.

As for the weapons and connections to terror cells...I will give you the benefit of the doubt by not suggesting that you're ruling that out, outright.

[ghassan karam]

Blacksmith Jade,
I did not like even the insinuation that Nasrallah and/or HA might be forced to do what they are doing. My only point and I believe that it is fundamental is that neither HA nor Nasrallah nor anyone connected to that group such as Qabalan etc... are to be believed or trusted when they proclaim their Lebanese identity., they have none. If they are to be given the benefit of the doubt then they will have to proclaim that they no longer share the belief and the ideas on which the movement was based and that they are even willing to change their name because the name HA and allegiance to Iran are no longer appropriate.
The same logic that prevented Israel from dealing with the PLO until the latter renounced its aim to eliminate Israel is to be applied in this case. HA has to renounce its aim to undermine Lebanese sovereignty and democratic system if it wishes to ever become a partner in this project.

Blacksmith Jade, no hard feelings. We are on the same side afterall:-)

[ghassan karam]

Blacksmith Jade,
I did not like even the insinuation that Nasrallah and/or HA might be forced to do what they are doing. My only point and I believe that it is fundamental is that neither HA nor Nasrallah nor anyone connected to that group such as Qabalan etc... are to be believed or trusted when they proclaim their Lebanese identity., they have none. If they are to be given the benefit of the doubt then they will have to proclaim that they no longer share the belief and the ideas on which the movement was based and that they are even willing to change their name because the name HA and allegiance to Iran are no longer appropriate.
The same logic that prevented Israel from dealing with the PLO until the latter renounced its aim to eliminate Israel is to be applied in this case. HA has to renounce its aim to undermine Lebanese sovereignty and democratic system if it wishes to ever become a partner in this project.

Blacksmith Jade, no hard feelings. We are on the same side afterall:-)

[Jay]

Why no one is discussing alternative solutions such as partitioning on this forum? Does anyone ever see a viable save-face solution to both sides in this standoff? Porky just crawled out of his hell hole and raised up the ante. He'll probably be more explicit in demanding a Shiite president in his next foray. All this and the Christian community remains divided, who's going to stop Porky's march?

I am interested in starting a civil constructive dialogue debating the merits and negatives of Partitioning. Let them have their mini-Iran in the south and Bekaa and live in divine darkness. Partitioning proofed effective in Cyprus and in former Yugoslavia, why not Lebanon?

[Bad Vilbel]

Lebanon is too small.

But on principle, yeah, I've said "let them have the South and the Bekaa if they want it" before.

The way I see it, Hamas pulled that off in Gaza, and for all the trouble it's caused, it's also managed to turn most of the Palestinian population against them and is demonstrating to whatever supporters they might have in Gaza that their approach is not a viable one.

I would imagine that a similar lesson is due to the Lebanese.

[Vox P.]

Lebanon is not too small for a partition.

[Charlie]

How is partitioning going to keep the Syrian regime at bay??
Also, what makes any one thinks that HA will respect the sovereignty of the neighboring state? Besides why give up land to bunch of implanted thugs.

[fubar]

Hezbollah will not go for partition. Hezbollah wants it all. Why? Because it is only the Christian and Sunni "hostages" it holds that keeps it from being annihilated by Israel and others. If Lebanon were to partition, then Hezbollah would be naked in the next war with Israel. And while it may sound okay to you now, it won't when Hezbollah starts another war and many of their people come streaming into your partitioned sections seeking shelter. Would the Christian and Sunni partitioned section(s) of Lebanon turn them away when bombs are falling? If not, get over the idea of partition. It will never work. Hezbollah would ruin their part with war and then move into your part. Everything you build will be for naught.

No, Charlie is right, Hezbollah is not Lebanese, it is Iranian, and you are not compatriots with Hezbollah, you are hostages of Hezbollah.

[Bad Vilbel]

We know that, Fubar.

My point is that there is a segment of the Lebanese population (namely the shia) who do not realize they are hostages too. They see Hezbollah as their ticket to empowerment. I believe until they are left to fend on their own, and suffer these wars you are predicting, they won't get the gist of the lesson the rest of us learned between 75-90.

There was a time when other sects in Lebanon felt they could overpower the rest, or go their separate way (the Christian enclave, for example). The civil war taught them all a very hard lesson. That is why guys like Jumblatt and Geagea are much wiser now. The Shia never had to learn that lesson, which is why they do not see through the lies of Nassrallah and into the real heart of what Hezbollah is. I don't think there's gonna be an easy way for them to learn this lesson. That's my point.

[whywesteppin]

How is partitioning going to keep the Syrian regime at bay??

Not that I support partition, but a state free of Hezbollah would be able to exercise sovereignty over all its land and also would have no one arguing against strict monitoring of the Syrian border. Without Hezbollah, no one would be there to provide excuses and a cover for Syria, right? There would be no more red lines with respect to protecting the state -- and isn't that the only way to keep a country like Syria at bay?

[whywesteppin]

One more thing.... It's not that I disagree with Charlie, especially about Hezbollah not respecting the sovereignty of a neighboring state. I just feel like the first thing you need before having any chance at security is full control of your land and borders, but that would only be a first step.

[Charlie]

“Not that I support partition, but a state free of Hezbollah would be able to exercise sovereignty over all its land and also would have no one arguing against strict monitoring of the Syrian border. Without Hezbollah, no one would be there to provide excuses and a cover for Syria, right? There would be no more red lines with respect to protecting the state -- and isn't that the only way to keep a country like Syria at bay?”

Here is the thing, no one is going to put their soldiers in harms way to protect the Lebanese state for free, so what can the new Lebanon offer them back to allow for such a trade to take place? Lebanon has no natural resources, and 5 stars hotels can be built in many other places around the world. The only thing I can think of that will be worthwhile is to keep that rogue entity called HAland, which will be sitting next door, in check. So in essence Lebanon will drift into a perpetual state of war anyway. Also, I happen to think that lots of Shia from the south and Bekaa are hostages of HA as well and they deserve another option to turn to, this option is the state. This option must stay alive for them as much as it was for all the Lebanese factions during the last civil war.

So, if a war is inevitable, then let it be a war of liberation of the land from Iranian, Pasadran occupation rather than a war of partition.

Charlie and guys,

So, if a war is inevitable, then let it be a war of liberation of the land from Iranian, Pasadran occupation rather than a war of partition.

I disagree.

--War is NOT inevitable, and partition is a cheaper more efficient way of having people (and Shia) in the south and Bekaa come to their senses and ultimately get rid of Hezbo without a civil war and clamor to get back with the other part of Lebanon.

--This time around the enemies, Hezbo and opponents, control somewhat non-overlapping territory. So no war is really necessary.

--The elephant in the room is Israel. Any Lebanon, partitioned or not, could exert TREMENDOUS leverage on Syria and Hezbo by threatening to negotiate or ally somehow with Israel. That's, for now and for a long time, a huge taboo even to the most rabid anti-Hezbo factions.

[Joseywales]

Oops,

Above posted by JW.

[Super Dude]

JW,

War is NOT inevitable, and partition is a cheaper more efficient way of having people (and Shia) in the south and Bekaa come to their senses and ultimately get rid of Hezbo without a civil war and clamor to get back with the other part of Lebanon.

Those people who are not Shia, and/or do no support HA, but do live in the South and Bekaa are what, collateral damage of partition? Also, what guarantees do you have that the people will come to their senses? Are you saying HA can't support a solid state if given the chance? In fact they already do.

Please enlighten me on how do you plan on partitioning those areas and dividing Lebanon. Throwing general ideas in the air like that, without paying attention to details does not a solution make.

[Solomon2]

a state free of Hezbollah would be able to exercise sovereignty

Who says that under partition rump-Lebanon will be free of Hezbollah? Will rump-Lebanon protect its remaining sovereignty any more than Lebanon is doing today? Are you free of assassins and suddenly-ineffectual police now that the Syrians are gone?

[Bad Vilbel]

I don't think war is inevitable.

Nor do I think that the Shia (and I generalize here, because I realize there are some shia that do not support HA) will try to "liberate Lebanon from the Pasdaran".

The problem is, there are way too many idiots (shia and otherwise) who are willing to believe what their sayyeds tell them. To have the people of the South and the Bekaa fight to "liberate from the Pasdaran invasion", they have to be convinced that they need to do so. As it stands right now, a very large chunk of the South and the Bekaa's people are under Nassrallah's spell (for whatever reason, I can't fathom). These people have been so brainwashed to think Israel and the US are the cause of everything that's wrong in their world that they will have absolutely not reason to liberate their world from HA/Pasdaran/Whatever you wanna call it.

That is why partition (or a semblance thereof) COULD teach them that lesson.

Again, I look at the Palestinians in Gaza. For years they've been indoctrinated to blame Israel for all their woes. They never had any reason to hate Hamas (even though Hamas was in large part responsible for the torment the Israelis inflicted on the Gazans, but blame was always directed at Israel). Now that Gaza has been taken over, Hamas has been put on the spot. They longer have the cover of the PA to blame for the ills of the people. And look at public opinion in Gaza. The huge percentages by which Hamas swept the previous elections are GONE. If elections were held today, Fatah would win by a landslide. Not that Hamas is about to allow any elections there, but you get the idea. For people to wanna liberate their land from a domestic tyrant, they need to actually SEE the Tyrant for what he is. People in the South and Bekaa need to see Hezbollah for the tyrants that they are. And that will not happen as long as Hezbollah can keep distracting the populace and blaming a pro-zionist central government, and various conspiracies from foreign embassies.
So let them have their statelet. Let the only embassies that matter be that of Tehran. Let them drown in their anti-Israeli madness for a few months, a year or two. Then, the people will be ready to liberate the South from Hizbollah.

[JoseyWales]

Dude,

Are you saying HA can't support a solid state if given the chance? In fact they already do.

REALLY? How so? By arresting police officers, smuggling weapons, illegally occupying downtown, subverting the constitution and taking us to war without the assent of the shitty but legal government?

Hezbo will support "a" state under its own boot, not "the" state or a rule-of-law state (and I am NOT saying the current state is great, just the only starting point we have).

The Nazis, and Soviets and Iranians and Burmese junta also support "a" state. One, I for one, do not want.

What about the non-Shia, non Hezbo who live in the south and the Bekaa? Guess what genius? They already live there and under the boot of Hezbo. So little will change for them (and they are free to move). Same for the minority Hezbo who live in the M14 areas (the Aounists won't like it either).

Every time partition or federation is brought up someone brings up this red-herring. No region will ever be 100% anything and that's fine.

The bottom line is this: I am not saying I like partition or it's an attractive solution, but partition is DE FACTO here. Use it or use it as a threat (or the threat of attaching Hezboland to Syria).

The Shia are the only ones who can rid Lebanon of Hezbo, like the Sunnis and Druze were necessary to rid Leb of the Syrians.

To achieve that, Hezbo and its supporters need a bit of tete-a-tete time.

[Super Dude]

REALLY? How so? By arresting police officers, smuggling weapons, illegally occupying downtown, subverting the constitution and taking us to war without the assent of the shitty but legal government?

Yes, thats the HA state, you don't like it, tough luck. You say, hell lets give them half of Lebanon to play with, that way the people will get fed up. Riiiight. Give HA more freedom, take away UNIFIL, and the people will get tired of HA. Indeed.

They already live there and under the boot of Hezbo. So little will change for them

Yes they will go complain to the greater Islamic Republic of Lebanon when they can't take it, or 'immigrate' to the republic next door.

You are playing a dangerous game. You are not clear whether you want to threaten with partition, in order to bluff and scare HA, or you want to actually do it. Either way the consequences are as bad as civil war.

You still did not tell tell me how do you can guarantee that this "tête-à-tête" between HA and their supporters will make them choose Lebanon over Wilayat-al-Fakih with the mass hypnosis they are subjected to everyday and have been for the past 20 years?

Don't forget that heavy weight Hypno-Toad (Nas.) is where he is for a reason.

BTW I am not dude, I am Super Dude :)

[Al]

"The Nazis, and Soviets and Iranians and Burmese junta also support "a" state. One, I for one, do not want"

That's fine, but Iran is a state, and by middle east standards, it's probably better than most places.

[JoseyWales]

Dude

You still did not tell tell me how do you can guarantee...

I guarantee nothing. Living together is not an absolute. If after a few years, Hezbo's supporters are happy and want wilayet el fakih, then partition would have been the RIGHT solution and both sides should be happy.

[Dude, you'll be Super when you earn it. Close but not quite yet. ;) ]

Al,

Thanks for your insight man. But, as an Iran semi-apologist, why do you read this blog? Surely there must be better masochists blogs.

[Vox P.]

Syria has influence in Lebanon only because some 'Lebanese' accept to be instrumentalized. Remove the proxies (or put them in another country), and Syria will become innofensive.

[Hazbani]

As an Israeli.
Palestine was divided see what we got. Cyprus was divided, have you ever been to divided and dying Famagusta? think about Beirut. India was divided is was a bloody mess. Yugolavia? it was another blood bath and it is not finished yet. Oh yes in one place it worked, Chechoslovakia was divided beautifully. Is Leb. Chchoslovakia? Will the UN accept the idea of dividing Leb.? Will the Arab states accept this idea? I do not think so. If Iraq is going to be divided, one way or the other, are you ready to pay the price the people of Iraq are paying? Once the USA was going to be divided, remember? Some people were going to divide Canada, french speaking from the rest, they were smart enough not to push it through. There are talks about dividing the UK into Scotland ect. much talk and perhaps some thing symbolic will come out, noting realy real. They are talking about dividing Belgium, another product of European Imperialism, I do not think it will happen and if it will both parts will be inside the EU. About Leb.? as I, half blind and not very smart, see it the only half workable idea is for the Christians,all Christians,to unite for one thing only and ellect a real president, will it work? If they could think about the sad fate of the Christians in all the other Arab countries may be this will do some thing and they wll unite for a short time.
Just saw in the news that one of the leaders of the small and persecuted Christian community in Gaza was killed. This is a real Shahid and no 72 virgins. I realy wish you Lebanese (Lebanonese?) well, as most Israelies. No matter what the Hizb. is telling you.

[Jester]

hmmm... how to send my feedback to your post today, in an easy efficient way... "no" I disagree.

[Al]

"Al,

Thanks for your insight man. But, as an Iran semi-apologist, why do you read this blog? Surely there must be better masochists blogs."

I didn't give any useful insight as I was simply responding to a hysterical statement. Simply stating that Iran hardly comes off that bad when compared with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Jordan, and Syria hardly makes one an apologist.

I read this blog mainly because it's entertaining reading comments such as yours.

[ghassan karam]

Al,
I never dreamed that I would be making statements in support of Saudi Arabia and Jordan. But the objective scientific method asks for objectivity and judgements based on the data. Since the most respected measure of the quality of life is that of the HDI you will be surprised to learn thatIran ranks as the 96th country in the world when Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Oman, Libya 9yes Libya), Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia are ranked before it. Out of the countries in the middle east only Syria and Egypt are slightly worse off than the Islamic Republic of Iran , one of the most authoritarian undemocratic and morally bankrupt regimes in the world. Actually Iran does not even warrant a Freedom Index Ranking. The Iranian revolution has created a most despotic regime that does not recognise Human Rights; alas it is a revolution that is devouring its own children.

[ghassan karam]

I want to make sure that all the readers have had a chance to read Makari's statement in response to the latest Nasrallah ramblings. In my estimation Mr. Makari hit one out of the ball park when he raised the following rhetorical question: If Mr. Nasrallah is so sure that Israel is the brain and the executor of all the assassinations in Lebanon then why did Mr. Nasrallah do his best to prevent the formation of the International tribunal whose only function is to investigate these murders and bring their perpetrators to justice. Does this mean , after the PSP and Mallat statements , that March 14 has found its voice? I sure hope so.

[Solomon2]

If Mr. Nasrallah is so sure that Israel is the brain and the executor of all the assassinations in Lebanon then why did Mr. Nasrallah do his best to prevent the formation of the International tribunal

You know, maybe I was wrong in thinking Hezbollah wants to keep its weapons because it is a tool of the Iranian mullahs. An equally good if not better reason to keep them is because if it wasn't for Hezbollah's weapons along with its stated willingness to pursue "Zionists", Lebanese would actually laugh at Nasrallah and openly call him a fool, rather than keep such thoughts to themselves.

[Al]

ghassan karam, I never intended the discussion to get to this level of detail. I'll grant everything you said as correct, but the original comment was comparing Iran to that of Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia. Anyone with any knowledge of Iran understands that this is a false characterization of life in Iran.

[JoseyWales]

Al,

Thx for the previous compliment. ;)

You say:

but the original comment was comparing Iran to that of Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia...

My original comment was:
"The Nazis, and Soviets and Iranians and Burmese junta also support "a" state.

The COMPARISON point was that "bad" states also support the "state" when they are in control of it.

I was stressing, and responding to the point (Dude's), that being pro "a" state is a worthless criterion. It's "which" type of state that is important.

The regimes cited are all shit, but I agree with you there are different kinds of shit. IMO they're all worth fighting and defeating. You want to rank them? Be my guest.

[Blacksmith Jade]

Hey Ghassan,

No need to worry about any hard feelings :)

But thanks for mentioning it, I appreciate it.