Jumblatt: Lebanese army will not intervene in case of coup

The Lebanese army would not intervene if the Hizbullah-led "opposition" invaded the government building to overthrow Fouad Siniora's cabinet, Walid Jumblatt told Aljazeera yesterday, quoting a letter he said he received from an army general. "This implies a coup d'etat and a great catastrophy," he said. Jumblatt added that he asked army commander Michel Suleiman not to assume neutrality if riots broke out following a "presidential vacuum".

Jumblatt warned of a coup by Hizbullah, which he said was close to storming the government Serail on January 23rd had it not been to intervention by Arab countries and even Iran, which was concerned that a civil war would hurt its interests in the south. He described Hassan Nasrallah as a tool for a greater project, who cannot detach himself from the Assad regime and from his financial and military interests with Iran.

The Druze leader said he didn't mind being accused of being part of the American project, as long as the objective is to protect Lebanon from the Assad regime and the "Persian hegemony".

Jumblatt said the settlement of the crisis over the presidency should take place in Bkirki, and not Ain El Tineh (Berri's residence), adding that Sfeir has to know how to pick according to the conditions of the Cedar Revolution. Jumblatt said, however, that it was really up to the parliament's majority to select a candidate. He added that he has been lobbying for American and international recognition of a March 14 president elected by a simple majority.

On Suleiman's candidacy, Jumblatt said he told the army commander that he was opposed to amending the constitution, and that if Suleiman wanted a political position, he has to take off the army uniform first and become "a deputy, minister and maybe later a president... but no to the military returning to power".

Jumblatt said he hopes Aoun returns to his former self after his meeting with Hariri in Paris. He added that the former general has become a prisoner of Hizbullah and Syria, and that the meeting between the two (Jumblatt and Aoun) was canceled because Aoun said he could not meet with those who insult his allies.

Comments

[Shunkleash]

You know guys, I don't know if writing about this stuff helps my blood pressure but i will sacrifice.

Yesterday (ie 24 hours AGO) SAAAAAAAAAAD revealed a plot by Syrian intelligence(lol) to assassinate him and Pussy Man. TODAY...the syrian fellas over yonder have DENIED IT! Shit...Shit...Shit. I, like Pussy Man and SAAAAAAAAD thought that THIS TIME FOR SURE the Syrians would come out and admit it.

SO, now that they have denied it what should PUSSY MAN and SAAAAAAAD do...SHOW THE FCUKING PROOF YOU CNUTS! OH wait, I suppose you have to show it to Dark Side of Moon first? WE THE FCUKING PEOPLE would like to see it especially if we are going to be called upon to save your sorry asses when the shit hits the fan. I for one would like to know, and see proof, that Syria is trying to undermine a legitimate lebanese government. TO DO OTHERWISE can give rise to the reasonable inferrence that you are lying and you have no proof.

SHOULD I HOLD MY BREATH PUSSY MAN!?!? are you going to SPILL THE BEANS THIS TIME!?!?!?

Ayesh Lubnan

[Solomon2]

It these last few days of the countdown, everybody and his brother is trying to avoid assassination. Sounds like this general just purchased a life extension for himself!

I guess that Lebanese politicians, policemen, and soldiers are engaged in a complicated game of deception and betrayal, one made more complex by the necessary assumption that Hezbollah with their Syrian & Iranian allies are listening to every conversation of import through their parallel telephone system. But when the crunch comes, who knows where the Army and its commanders will stand?

[LebExile]

Shunkleash,

What proof will convince you that they are on a hit list - other than a body bag...

they may not be able to show you proof for the simple reason of revealing how it was obtained.

sometimes the method of obtaining secrets is more important than the secret itself.

[Shunkleash]

Leb,

Oh Yeah! you're right who needs proof of anything anymore...this is lebanon.

One question though, why should PUSSY MAN or SAAAAD even bother to disclose it if the "method of obtaining secrets is more important than the secret itself." While you're at it, maybe you could expand on how you justify that comment ESPECIALLY when the plot involves killing your PM...or is that not important enough to stop playing James Bond?

Ayesh Lubnan

[M.]

if he received a letter why doesn't he actually show it. this stuff is funnier than the movies.

[Super Dude]

I sent him a postcard one, he never wrote back.

Who said anything about a letter?

[Bad Vilbel]

Proof? What proof?

Have we seen proof of anything in Lebanon in the last 20 years? These guys are a joke! This country is a joke!

Having said that, I don't doubt that we're going to be facing a "coup" come November. Shit's about to hit the fan, folks.

[LebExile]

LOL... that didn't come out right .. but, everyone has secrets, and plots to assasinate the PM would obviously be kept secret... especially when you dont want the plotters to know what you know!

[Solomon2]

Selected excerpts from Jumblatt's speech with Q&A of October 19th, 2007 at at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy:
The moment of truth, if I can say so, started on August 26, 2004, when Bashar al-Asad summoned Rafiq Hariri, the late prime minister of Lebanon, to Damascus at a meeting that did not last more than ten minutes, and told him bluntly, "Emile Lahoud (meaning the actual president) is me, and if somebody in Lebanon wants me out, I'll break Lebanon"...I told Hariri, who was sad, not to stay depressed. I told him, don't defy him. Don't defy Bashar. He's dangerous....

Either we will be able to elect a president that will fulfill the aspirations of the Lebanese for a free, independent, sovereign Lebanon in conformity with March 14, the Cedar Revolution, a president that will respect international resolutions, abide by them and cooperate fully with the tribunal, or Lebanon will succumb to Syrian tyranny and Iranian hegemony. Lebanon will just disappear -- the only model of diversity and pluralism and democracy in the Middle East.

But let nobody be fooled that the killing machine will stop...so-called resistance movements or movement of national liberation supported by dictators in Damascus or forces of darkness in Tehran cannot but act accordingly to their wishes, to the wishes of their masters and dictates...

...here's the trick, because we're been hearing some rumors -- annoying rumors that the army or let's say that well, I might be staying neutral, the army should abide by the orders of the new president, and later on should allow the access, free access to Baabda for the new president. The army cannot stay neutral and the army from now and until then should protect public institutions.

[Danny]

One thing I am having a problem with is some of your assinine outbursts...Show me the proof one says... Ok we will get Shawkat to send you the internal memo regarding this case...Please stop calling people names as it is very easy to do from infront of your computer and comfortable room in USA...
It used to be we would read some interesting analysis but now it seems we have a pest problem of semi-aounies and "all haters".
The blog is great however most of your comments seem to be mirroring aoun's declining mental state...

[Super Dude]

"Ok we will get Shawkat to send you the internal memo regarding this case"

Priceless.

Anyway, rare are those who understand the investigative process and what it entails, especially a criminal one involving homicide.

I do enjoy the creativity of Shunkleash and JW. People need to vent, let them do so.

Solomon, what is the link between what you quoted and what AK just reported from Jumbi?

[Solomon2]

Possibly that speech may have been what prompted the general to write Jumbi the letter. Even if it wasn't, J's presentation was so interesting I thought readers here might want to take note of it, or click the link and "read the whole thing", as the saying goes.

[Bad Vilbel]

Danny,

Normally, most of us try to engage in civilized debate and analysis. But as pointedo ut by Superdude, sometimes we need to vent :) Specially when there's not much happening these days, except a continuous string of inane declarations by our so-called leaders.

I've maintained time and again that change, any change, has to come from the Lebanese people. More specifically a change of mentality has to occur. The people need to stop getting distracted by conspiracy theories, non-issues, rhetoric and demagoguery. Which is something very common in the Arab world.

Well, it's only fair for some of us to point out said inane demagoguery when we see/hear/read it.

At some point, we, as Lebanese people, need to raise our level of discourse a few notches and join the civilized world in its maturity. I hate to harp on this, and I'm not trying to sound childish or infantile in my comments, but we, as a people, really need to grow up. You can call that "all hating". I call it "sound advice" and "critique". :)

[Hassan]

Thanks Solomon

[fubar]

Pardon me for intruding on a family scabble but...

WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON HERE TODAY?!

Danny, no one is making you read these comments. Shunkleash and other are frustrated. Get it! They are watching their country (or former country), to which they are very attached, being pulled apart at the seams and there is very little they can do about it right now. They have a right to be frustrated. Where have you been for a year and a half while these guys have been pouring over UNSC resolutions and the Lebanese constitution, watching every word uttered by every politician, religious leader, and militia leader in Lebanon, and analyzing every move made in Lebanon, the region, and the world?

So, maybe you are right, maybe they should not call M14 leaders names. I don't. But that is because I don't agree with some of them that being equally critical of everyone is a smart move. But, then, while I am on M14's side, I have no personal attachment to Lebanon. Does that make me better than them because I don't call M14 leaders names? You better hope not because I don't care one tenth as much about Lebanon as most of these guys do.

So why in the hell would any of you be pissing on each other? With the exception of Romeo and the ocassional others, there are no enemies here.

Today is the 47th birthday of Reza Pahlavi, Crown Prince of Iran. Living, walking, breathing proof that it is possible to lose your own country to the Islamic Revolution. Think about that while you still have a country.

Know your enemies and don't piss on your allies.

[JoseyWales]

Thx fubar.

As an aside to proof and counterproof:

Walid Jumblatt told Aljazeera yesterday, quoting a letter he said he received from an army general.

I believe the army's generalship is weak (as opposed to the junior officers) and probably leaning toward doing nothing, were Hezbo to storm the seraglio/serail.

I believe it's very possible an army general slipped the word to Walid Joumblatt, and others, on that matter.

What I don't believe, is the existence of a letter. No general is stupid enough to sign such a letter. These guys are a lot of things but they did not get the top army jobs by saying the wrong thing and putting their name on the wrong paper.

Joumblatt is on thin ice here.

[Vox P.]

I suspect that pro-Hariri officers and the ISF will act to counter a Hezbollah coup, whether his generalship agrees or not.

And Shunkleash, do you really need proof that some people are tyring to kill March 14th leader? I agree that Saad can be annoying sometimes, but we can believe him on this one.

[AK]

Danny, chill out.

Josey, I reviewed the Arabic, it says Jumblatt received a "Risala". I translated it as letter because Jumblatt followed it with "in which he told me". But Risala also means a "message" as you know, in which case, it could be verbal and not written.

[Super Dude]

Solomon, thanks for the link.

Fubar:
"But, then, while I am on M14's side, I have no personal attachment to Lebanon."

Aha, so M14 is paying you to come and loiter here then. I knew it.

I am of the opinion that a president with M14 tendencies will be elected, unless, through catastrophic circumstances (more assassinations for example), a Syrian clown gets elected (and I don't mean Aoun unless he kisses mucho M14 ass).
Tactically, HA has repositioned North of the Litani, and if the reports that are surfacing are accurate, they are doing it efficiently. This will affect the post election events of Lebanon.
Just before all this we will see how far HA, and powerless Lahoud will make good on their pre and post-election threats.
Aoun's tone has been very different as of late, which is something to watch for. As crunch time approaches I think he is feeling how useless his so called 'MOU' is. It was a shortsighted political move that provided a lot of cover to HA, and nothing to Aoun.
After the elections, and if M14 prevails, a new confrontation will need to be established, either internal, or external (i.e. with Israel).

For all the shortcomings of the sweets guy (PM), there is one thing I appreciate about him. He managed to keep his government in office, and hopefully can maintain it till election day. This is a very important aspect that most seem to miss. A semi-dysfunctional government recognized by the U.N. and the international community is better than no government, or an Assad assigned one. Right now there is no alternative to the sweets guy. His 'nafas taweel', and super nice guy style in negotiation pisses the hell out of everyone. Just ask Josey and Shunkleesh.

I repeat, Sweets Guy is the right guy in the right place at the right time. Unless you can name someone else that could have done a better job, I stand by my opinion.
His weeping willow act deserves an political Oscar.

[The Other Tony]

guys i would like your views on the following piece which i read in The Daily Star:

"Wednesday's issue of Al-Akhbar newspaper quoted sources close to Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, as saying that he had formed a new three-member committee to name a consensus candidate. The panel would include Michel Aoun and two of his rivals for the presidency from the March 14 coalition, former MP Nassib Lahoud and MP Butros Harb.

According to Al-Akhbar, the committee would select a candidate from a list of five names: former Ambassador Simon Karam, former Minister Dimianous Qattar, former Bar Association president Shakib Qortbawi, Maronite League chief Joseph Torbay, and MP Farid Elias al-Khazen."

I don't know who Al-Akhbar is affiliated to and how reliable the story is. I don't see how the 3 Presidential aspirants (or anybody other than Parliament for that mattet)has any legitimacy to nominate a President, however, the five names mentioned do provide me with a level of comfort.

Thoughts?

[fubar]

"Joumblatt is on thin ice here"

If he said he has a letter, you can take it to the bank. It may not be a formal, signed letter. It may be a note of some kind, perhaps unsigned and sent through an intermediary. But if he said he has it, he has it.

Not surprising actually. The Army is as fractured as the general population. There are officers loyal to M14 and those loyal to M8. It does not surprise me at all that those loyal to M14 would be passing information to M14, the same for M8 -- both have an interest in knowing the inside scoop regarding the Army's probable reaction to the events expected to unfold in the next few weeks.

As to Hariri and Siniora, it's sort of an anticipatory dying declaration. Now if anything happens to either one of them, there is no one in the free world who will not immediately believe that Syria did it. And there won't be many willing to wait for an investigation and tribunal this time around.

[ghassan karam]

Super dude,
I am not going to rehash what has been stated on this blog time and again about the ineffectiveness and incompetence of the Saniora cabinet. Suffice it to say that those who are interested can always go to the archives.
Obviously I beg to disagree with every point and word in your post. If the performance of Mr. Saniora is considered to be worthy of an Oscar and if the ability not to ever take a stand , act as a leader or confront the oppositionis considered to be meritorious then I really feel sorry for the country. Ultimately the struggle is not about who is going to be the president but it goes to the essence of what is a state and whether the attributes of modernity , democracy and secularism are in its future. To put it bluntly, you can't get there from here. Unless we change course then the country will arrive at the destination it is heading towards, the demise of the state.
I respect your right to adopt anypoint of view that you want but please present a case that has specifics and that goes beyond the use of platitudes.

[ghassan karam]

Super dude,
I am not going to rehash what has been stated on this blog time and again about the ineffectiveness and incompetence of the Saniora cabinet. Suffice it to say that those who are interested can always go to the archives.
Obviously I beg to disagree with every point and word in your post. If the performance of Mr. Saniora is considered to be worthy of an Oscar and if the ability not to ever take a stand , act as a leader or confront the oppositionis considered to be meritorious then I really feel sorry for the country. Ultimately the struggle is not about who is going to be the president but it goes to the essence of what is a state and whether the attributes of modernity , democracy and secularism are in its future. To put it bluntly, you can't get there from here. Unless we change course then the country will arrive at the destination it is heading towards, the demise of the state.
I respect your right to adopt anypoint of view that you want but please present a case that has specifics and that goes beyond the use of platitudes.

[Shunkleash]

To All,

I regret if my comments have rubbed anyone the wrong way.

However, I do not beleive I must apologise or convey regret for the positions I have taken vis a vie the current gov. or the persons who represent it and us. Furthermore, by no means should individuals like Danny Boy take the liberty of placing me in league with "Aounies" (semi, semi dec, or otherwise) and "all haters". Above ALL else I place my country first NOT POLITICIANS! The politicians I place under my shoes where they belong...ALL OF THEM. I am therefore not an ALL HATER...but rather I calculatingly disrespect those who disrespect me and the memory of 150000 lebanese who died needlessly. Politicians, are MY paid servants and when they fail to act in MY best interest they will be called to account, especially when no one in lebanon appears willing to do it. I do not subscribe to the view that you must pay homage to our "leaders" and that they are above rebuke or critique. Why should I? In any other country in the world these guys would be laughed out of town. Unless of course Danny Boy you think they are brilliant, in which case I will leave you to your own devices.

By the way, I have in the past given the benefit of the doubt to M14 in the hopes that they would be a stepping stone to something brighter...that hope has been dashed repeatedly and so fair warning is given the gloves have come off and I will spare NONE.

I do not live in lebanon, that is correct. My circumsntances for not being home are a matter for me...NOT YOU Danny boy so refrain from making assumptions. Rest assured however that I remain faithfull and committed to MY COUNTRY.

Finally Danny boy, you want to parade on me that is fine as I respect your right to freedom of thought. I do however believe that your display of angst from on high is ill directed. Dismount thy sturdy steed oh Danny Boy and accept a peice of advice. When you have taken the time to try and understand lebanese politics and conlude that such an endeavour is impossible you may then come to realise that taking sides is useless. You may also come to realise that my positions are correct..as they naturally are:-)

Finally for the benefit of Vox P and others

With respect to my request for "proof" I have two brief comments:

1. I fully beleive that Syria and/or its allies in lebanon are the parties behind the assassinations and NO I do not need Assef Shawket to send me the memo. Thanks anyway.
2. I would also be the first to admit that the lives of certain politicians are in danger especially the life of our esteemed Prime Minister (feel better Danny Boy). That however is the price you pay for standing up to bullies it is not a licence to hide under the bed and wait for the foreign cavalry to arrive.

You will nevertheless appreciate that all of lebanon will agree with 1 and 2. Therefore, I can not sit idly in my comfy room in the USA (according to Danny Boy) while my esteemed PM and leader of a political block make serious accusations that are either false or unprovable. In either case they UNDERMINE ALL OF US just a little bit more and I am trully trully fed up with it. It is either you come out swinging or roll over, you can't do both. Khallas!

With respect to all

Ayesh Lubnan

[anon]

Shunkleash :
Your poignant scream comes from where you come from.From where the heart of Lebanon is .Where the mountains are high and where the sturdiest tree on earth stands.
Bless you.

[Super Dude]

GK,

"I am not going to rehash what has been stated on this blog time and again about the ineffectiveness and incompetence of the Saniora cabinet"

No need, I never said he was competent, or effective. In fact I labeled his government as dysfunctional.

The Oscar comment was a tongue in the cheek comment. He gets an Oscar for crying in front of other men and on T.V. Thats it.

As for the rest, yes it will be good to have a free, independant and democratic Lebanon, with a state that is secular and respected by it's citizens. But if you think Siniora or anyone else in the current political structure is going to achieve it, then good luck.

The only group that will achieve this are the people of Lebanon. Your aspirations need to be passed on to the rest of the Lebanese CURRENTLY LIVING IN LEBANON.

Thanks for you time, and your thoughts.
Also, thank you AK for this space.

[Super Dude]

This sums up the current situation. Who needs potatoes!

[Danny]

Wow...Thanks all. I must have touched a raw nerve! However, I tend to look at things realistically. I cannot come close to analyzing the situation in Lebanon; politically or otherwise through the glasses of someone who lives in the civilized side of the universe.
I see a group of people armed to their teeth (with open supply lines) and another who has AK47s...A group that has world backing (words only) and the other all the can "eat buffet" from Syria/Iran...
A group who seems to be stuck in quicksand and other that has its mini state...A group that is a compost of different "beliefs" and the other firmly led by their desire to martyr Lebanon...
So excuse me if taking these existing situations on the ground that I refuse to "attack" the current "government" which is the only semi ligitimate body left in Lebanon. As much as we hate the current situation in Lebanon...we are where we are! The rest remains on which steps will lead us out of this mess. I wish it were easy. The only way this could be achieved, I am afraid is cutting off the hand that is feeding this turmoil and shutting down the Syrian/Iranian ambitions. I am sure each and every one of you have a piece of the puzzle. Praying for Lebanon and its Cedars Always...

[Solomon2]

if anything happens to either one of them, there is no one in the free world who will not immediately believe that Syria did it. And there won't be many willing to wait for an investigation and tribunal this time around.

fubar, do you really think the U.S. or (gasp!) the French would bomb Asad, the way the U.S. raided Libya for blowing up our soldiers in Berlin?

We didn't manage to kill him then, although we did kill his daughter. Today our weapons are better, and during Jumblatt's visit he assured everyone that as long as Asad is alive and not scared, there will be trouble...very interesting.

[M.]

Well said Danny...

[fubar]

"Aha, so M14 is paying you to come and loiter here then. I knew it."

OK, I'll play, smartass.

I take it that is your way of telling me that the reason you are "Super" is because you got yours in cash and up front while this dumbass is still waiting some 15 months later for a check which is allegedly "in the mail". Well, its Lebanon so what the hell else is new -- snafu. Newsflash, if you were really Super, you would have brought my check with you. = )

*******

(JPost) Bahrain's Crown Prince, Sheik Salman bin Isa al-Khalifa, said Friday that Iran is striving to acquire nuclear weaponry, Israel Radio reported.

Al Khalifa said that at the very least, Iran is attempting to gain the ability to produce nuclear weaponry.

The statement would make Bahrain the first Arab nation in the Persian Gulf to claim that Iran is attempting to deceive world leaders in relation to its nuclear aspirations.

*******

Tick tock.