Is Aoun breaking with Hizbullah?

FPM MP Ibrahim Kenaan said Aoun's bloc will vote in parliament irrespective of whether agreement is reached on a candidate. In an interview with Naharnet, he appeared unwilling to acknowledge he was part of the "opposition", and refused to call Hizbullah an "ally".

MP Ibrahim Kenaan, secretary of the Change and Reform Parliamentary bloc, said that if legislators failed to reach consensus on a presidential candidate "we can still vote in parliament" irrespective of who wins or loses.

Kenaan, in an interview with Naharnet, said that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun is the bloc's candidate for the presidential office, but failed to identify him as the opposition candidate.

Hizbullah, according to Kenaan, "is not an ally" but rather "a partner in the homeland."

At the risk of reading too much into this statement, cracks in this "non-alliance" between Aoun and Hizbullah have emerged over the past couple of weeks, following a Hizbullah statement that Aoun was "not the only candidate".  A Nasrallah speech extolling Aoun's character without naming him or committing to his candidacy seems to have failed in impressing the general, who is not stupid enough to buy into Nasrallah's 11th hour proposal to change the constitution to allow for Aoun's election through a popular vote.   

Aoun's movement is also under immense pressure by the Maronite church, which is close to  excommunicating (at least in a patriotic/political sense) Christian MPs who heed Hizbullah's call to boycott the election. 

The talks between Hariri and Berri will probably reach a dead end, if they haven't already after Nasrallah's speech. At best they are designed to diffuse sectarian tension in the country. Sunni-Shia clashes in Beirut often go unreported by the media. But even if these talks produce a candidate, it will not be Aoun. And the general knows it. All he can do now is vote for himself.

Comments

[Danny]

You are right. Let's not read ANYTHING into this. The "little napoleon" has not changed and will never change...unless you promise him his cake...and then he'll change again!
I think Kanaan is posturing to "reel" HA in...I do not see anything positive out of all this BS.They are furiously trying to get someone assosiated with March 14 and although not with them(haha...Robert Ghanem)to get to the Presidency. Rizk seems OK with HA but not with Syria...Tribunal!. What Kanaan said, I think, is if Aoun is not the consensus candidate (assuming they agree on one), then we'll go and vote Aoun only (same as Jumblut's assertion that he'll not vote for a "consensus" candidate but he'll be there)...

[AK]

Danny, note that I didn't say Aoun has "changed". The man lost his battle, and is now isolated and without many choices, politically speaking. In other words, he has boxed hismelf into a corner and is now paying the price.

[Shunkleash]

AK...Agreed! To add briefly, I think the response from his mouthpiece Kannan is a subtle indication that the FPM itself may be looking for new "direction" and new leadership.

We are all aware that the FPM was not founded to create inter christian and inter lebanese strife. It was (and may still be)a movement that had a noble agenda. The core of this movement therefore is not ready to go down the road to oblivian as allies of hizbteezee a TERRORIST MAFIA STYLE organisation at the expense of lebanon. I truly beleive this, and I also truly believe that there is a brewing tug of war within the party to attend the pres elections on the 23rd and, well...do the right thing.

However, from the latest developments, Napolaoun's departure from the political scene and exile to Alba is only a matter of time. That reality may already be hitting home.

How will hizbteezee react once they lose their "christian" cover. I think interesting times are ahead but only AFTER a new pres is elected

Mirror mirror on the wall who is about suffer a BEAT DOWN!?!?

Ayesh Lubnan

[Vox P.]

Never underestimate Aoun's stupidity.

[Bad Vilbel]

I pointed to this comment by Kenaan a couple of days ago when it first appeared in Al-Nahar.

While it's probably mere posturing, I have to at the very least applaud the fact that Mr. Kenaan seems to get the fact that "consensus" is not the same thing as "democracy" and that failing to agree on a candidate is perfectly normal, and that voting in parliament is the way to resolve that very issue, whether you like the outcome or not.

As I said, probably posturing, because I don't think Aoun himself gets this concept, but at least it's nice to hear people like Mr. Kenaan making sense of the institutions once in a blue moon.

[Blacksmith Jade]

Kanaan has been following this line for about a month now - or if, you want, since Hizballah made it clear after the Metn by-elections that they weren't going to support Aoun.

I think the logic behind the move is that the FPM has appointed Kanaan as their contact point with the M14 in the event that things with Hizballah fall apart - as they surely will (most likely after Aoun doesn't get elected, to Hizballah's delight).

The fact of the matter remains that Aoun is mentally unstable and Kanaan is a very dull knife in the drawer.

No matter what "scheme" the two think up (e.g. MoU) they're bound to pull it off horrendously thereby causing even more damage to an organisation in severe hemorrhage since Aoun decided , back in 2005, that getting his (?) money back from the Syrians' goons in Lebanon was more important than actually keep a little something called the Cedar Revolution alive.

[fubar]

NOW Lebanon has a good article up on the LAF's performance at Nahr al Bared. They should have, but did not, entitle the article, "How the LAF embraced the suck to victory."

This part is from the conclusions, the least informative part (I don't want to spoil the good parts for you)...

(NOW Lebanon) According to an international military and defense specialist who preferred to remain anonymous due to sensitivity of the topic, “Despite what people might think, the army is a reflection of Lebanon’s fragmented society, spawned by a 15-year civil war.”

Mouawad explained, “During the past 30 years, the army was handcuffed. They were used by the Syrians. They were manipulated by the Syrians. They were forbidden to fight the Palestinians, they were forbidden to fight Hezbollah. They were forbidden to fight anything.”

This grim state of affairs left the military institution vulnerable and lacking in areas such as procurement policy. Need-based procurement and weapons standardization are essential, but right now the army is largely relying on a mixture of Soviet and American weapons as well as ones inherited from Lebanese militias after the Taif Accord. What weapons the army does have are aging, the air force is almost entirely grounded and many armored vehicles are out of commission.

Years of invasive political patronage and money squandered on salaries and retirement packages to ensure a tight network of political loyalties rather than to modernize the army, has weakened Lebanon’s largest institution. The percent of the army’s budget allocated to acquiring new weapons and ammunition is in the single digits.

Lebanon has seen a dramatic rise in foreign-military aid this year from the US, EU countries and the Gulf. But without proper direction this aid will be wasted. On Defense Minister Elias Murr’s recent official visit to the Unites States, the army’s lack of a coherent vision was evident. Seeking American help to bolster the army’s arsenal, Murr presented the Bush administration with a list of weapons needed.

“The list included Apache helicopters and heavy artillery. No real thought was given as to how the army would cover its expenses in the future. The Apache missiles alone cost around $40,000, not to mention the necessary maintenance requiring highly-skilled engineers, a luxury Lebanon does not have,” underlined the expert.

“The Lebanese army needs to be revamped and maybe look more like Hezbollah, with a mechanized infantry and highly-specialized commandos, adaptable for the new types of wars waged in the region,” the military defense specialist said.

But everyone who spoke to NOW Lebanon agreed that what the army needs most desperately is proper training. “The army needs everything. But the most important is training; all kinds of training,” said Mouawad.

**********

After reading the article, you may want to re-think whatever thoughts you might have had that General Suleiman might be the guy for President.

[Charlie]

Fubar,

My thoughts exactly when I read the articles today. The best thing that happened during the battles was that cluster Fuck of politically appointed top brass staying the hell out of the way of the mid and low level officers who were determined to finish the fight.

With leadership like that, is there any wonder why the US will not trust the Lebanese army with any modern weaponry??