Assef Shawkat trying to assassinate Hariri, Siniora

Speaking after a meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Saad Hariri said he received reports of plots to assassinate him and PM Siniora, devised by Assad's military intelligence chief, Assef Shawkat.

The reports come as the French continue to engage the Assad regime in "dialogue", and following a Saturday meeting between Assad's VP Farouq Sharaa and French envoy Jean-Claude Cousseran, during which Cousseran was told to expect a "war of trenches" in Lebanon if a pro-Syrian president is not elected. An-Nahar said French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is scheduled to meet his Syrian counterpart Walid Muallem this week.

Meanwhile, Patriarch Sfeir is expected to receive a report by 4-member committee representing March 14 and the "opposition". The committee has failed to agree on a consensus candidate, or on anything else for that matter. Sfeir is said to now be considering naming his own candidates. The talks were complicated by Aoun's inability to meet with Jumblatt and Hariri, reportedly due to pressure by Hizbullah. Lebanon Files reported today that the former general may have travelled to Paris to meet with Hariri.

In a separate development, Hizbullah is reportedly boosting the number of its occupation forces in downtown Beirut, 12 days before parliament is scheduled to elect (or not) a president. And it's not to protect the besieged Siniora against an assassination attempt.

Comments

[Ali]

The time has come and gone for M14th to grow a pair of balls.

The flood gates will open after the election of a president. The real fight will be over the creation of the new government. It is where the executive power lies. I hope that Saad smart enough to know that it is not his time to lead. I also hope that this time around there will be no sentance in the new governments plan promising to safeguard the Hizb**ry.

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm not holding my breath, Ali. M14 has shown to be completely incompetent and lacking of any kinds of balls. I don't see that changing.

And don't you guys love how a day after France agrees to "engage" Syria (or at least, just a teeny bit), in typical Assad regime fashion, the Syrians come out threatening? At least according to Naharnet:

Syria has reportedly warned France that unless Lebanon elects a consensus President under Damascus' terms bunker wars could take place. The daily An Nahar on Tuesday, citing sources in Paris, said the Syrian stand was conveyed by Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa's to France's Middle East envoy Jean-Claude Cousseran during a meeting in Damascus on Monday.

Wouldn't be the first time Syria saw "engagement" as a license to ratchet things up and respond with threats.

[Blacksmith Jade]

Syria's allies have received the word to break-off all talk of a new President - Hizballah has complied, and they have run their usual set of mind games to try and get the useful destructive idiot Aoun to cooperate as well (resulting in his utterly idiotic and destructive statement yesterday).

For this renewal of orders from the Syrians we thank Monsieurs Kouchner and Cousseran, who's rush to Damascus last week presented the Syrians with enough breathing room to act accordingly and issue more threats to the stumbling French.

The end result of those talks, it is rumored, was a Syrian threat - presented as a choice (bien sur!) - to the French representative: Lebanon may either have the International Tribunal or a new President through peaceful succession - not both.

So here's to Monsieur Kouchner's "enlightened diplomacy", and my condolences to the family of the next MP who'll have to pay for it.

[Danny]

Guys,
No need to have a pessimistic view...No one expected this game of "chicken" to end abruptly...did you? November 24th Lebanon will have a new Prez. March 14 have two balls of steel my friend: Geagea and Jumblat! Stop shrieking like little girls and follow the line...Lebanese have to stand up for themselves(much as they did on March 14,2005),so that Arab and foreign government can "assist" them! They can not fight our own battles...I think the black turbans are more afraid of civil war than Israelis...No one is backing down. Grab a beer and a lawn chair and enjoy the next 24 days! As far as Shawkat et al...Jumblat and Hariri were briefed in DC about intelligence that was gathered by CIA/Mossad/Egyptian and Saudi intelligence implicating HA with the assasinations! It is not by happenstance that Jumblat and Hariri are talking about it publicly! These are very interesting days my friends. Not for the weak of heart or squeemish...STAY TUNED!

[Cedar Revolution / Gebran's Sons]

I bet to disagree with the consensus that M14 is impotent. Yes, they made huge mistakes at the beginning by not making space for Aoun ego, supporting Berry election without conditions, and allowing Emile Lahoud the traitor to remain president. However, we would be underestimating their performance during the Hezbollah war on Lebanon, approving the international tribunal, soundly defeating Hezbollah and its useful idiots march on the government, uprooting Jind el-Islam thugs, and courageously standing up to Syria and its puppets as they reinfiltrate the Lebanese landscape. I personally believe Saniora is among the most effective and consistent prime ministers we ever had and I see a renewed and courageous focus of M14, despite continuous assassination threats, to stay the course of sovereignty and independence. They made mistakes, but are everyday paying with their lives to safeguard the achievements of the Cedar Revolution. I'm grateful for all M14 members!

[fubar]

Well it is about time someone new joined the team. Welcome aboard, Danny and Cedar Revolution. Don't mind the naysayers. They mean well but are stuck in an all or nothing mindset -- either they get an immediate progressive liberal democracy or M14 has screwed up again. They seem to think that criticizing every more by every player regardless of side somehow proves that they are critical thinkers. Critical, most definitely; thinkers, not so much.

It ain't over till the fat turban sings.

[ghassan karam]

And the previous post must take the cake for being the most egoistic , conceited statement:-)

[fubar]

LOL, Ghassan, I did it just to get you going. LOL

This past month or so has been so boring. Nothing for us to discuss and argue about. And it looks like it will stay that way for a while yet...

[Shunkleash]

Cedars..."I personally believe Saniora is among the most effective and consistent prime ministers we ever had..."

Oh really? and what makes you say that? Is it his ability not to wilt under pressure? or could it be his stern and bold faced manner of speaking? or even his ability to keep himself emotionally together and not cry when explaining to the world that HIZBKHARRA has instigated a bloody and destructive war with a neighbour who up until that point had not showed signs of aggression?

As you can tell, I would obviously disagree with your assessment of this faggot PM. His unforgiveable silence in times of real crisis, his inability to remain lebanocentric (victory at nahr al bared speech comes to mind) coupled with his ineffectiveness in rallying the lebanese to his call speaks volumes! TO describe him in a word, hmmm? how about---->jellyfish. I think we've seen the jelly but not felt the sting from this charlatan!

By the way fubar...sticks and stones baby, sticks and stones!:-)

Ayesh Lubnan

[fubar]

And here I was thinking it was a bit boring.

Did you just call me BABY?!

Option # 1:
Come on over here, sweet thing, so I can break your neck without putting my beer down.

Option # 2:
No, thanks anyway, not my thing. But let me help you out. Oh, Romeo..., time to join the party, Shunkleash is swinging your way.

Decisions, decisions...

/See, this is what happens when you let the riffraff in. Lowest common denominator. Happens every time. = )

[Bad Vilbel]

Eh. I don't think Siniora is as bad as some make him out to be. I stated last summer that he was on the right track. But come on! Continuing to try to "negotiate" with people while they rape you and stab you has got to be an exercise in futility. M14 has made a mockery out of their positions by talking big about sovereignty and independence, then looking like complete pussies by refusing to name names and call people out.

Why is it that Hassan Nassralah, Michel Paoun and co. can come out and call Siniora an american and zionist collaborator, make up a bunch of lies, and have him come and invite them for coffee? I'm not saying you have to resort to name calling and making up lies or sinking to these people's level, but at least maintain some sort of dignity and refuse to talk with these guys until they issue a public apology or something.

[Shunkleash]

"...Shunkleash is swinging your way."

LOL!!! yeah...me TARZAN you STAN! mmmmmmwah!:-)

Ayesh Lubnan

[fubar]

BV,

Come on, BV, it's the international diplodance. Hariri and Siniora play nice, stay above the fray, always appear to look concilliatory and agreeable, in search of a solution, in spite of the nastiness of M8. It is the European way. Dare I say it, it is the French way. How else would the Europeans expect a country of francophiles to act? (Shhhh, don't tell the Europeans that everyone in M14 is not a francophile.) But nevermind the dance, they have Geagea and Jumblatt to play not so nice. Everyone plays there assigned role.

[Bad Vilbel]

Yaeah, Fubar, you're right, to a point. Jumblatt (more so than Geagea) have excelled at playing the bad cop. But there's a difference, to the outside perception between "playing nice" and "looking spineless and powerless", and Siniora leans towards the latter. It may be an act, for all I know, but in our neighbourhood, as many of us know first hand, looking too wimpy earns you no respect whatsoever. I mean, just look at how the Assads have gotten their way with the Europeans time and again. "Conciliation" is viewed as a sign of weakness and only encourages the other side to demand more, take more, and feel emboldened to get away with murder (literally).

I guess my point is, if the Assad regime has taught us anything over the past 30some years, it's that conciliation in the Arab world, doesn't work.

(FYI, I can't recommend enough Barry Rubin's "The Truth About Syria", on that topic)

[anon]

Just a theory:
March 14 has not,will not,and should not behave like M8.
The civilized democratic world has stood behind M14 because of the way they have behaved .
M14 blood has been spilled but they have not retaliated in same .Do you think it is that difficult to hire a killer to go after one of M8?If they had, I am sure the civilized world would have washed their hands and said let those bunch of murderers fight it out.
Maybe it needs more guts to ride it out no matter how high the price than to retaliate in anger.

[JoseyWales]

OK so M14 STUMBLED into a couple of good things. It's also threatened and should get credit for that. PERIOD

-There's no good-cop/bad-cop. there's idiot-invisible-wussy cop/ bad cop.

-Where's the M8 good cop to dance the dance?

-There were many SIMPLE things to do that a half idiot would know to do: argue against 2/3 baloney when it started over a year ago (and shut up Sfeir), kick Fawzi Salloukh and the other resigned idiot from the gvmnt etc...

It's not brain surgery nor asking for the moon. These little things, and a million others, set the stage for the current crap.

[Abi Lama]

New Satellite Surveillance System Was Key Israeli Tool In Syria Raid
Aviation week:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw...el=defense
Nov 2, 2007

David A. Fulghum, Robert Wall and Douglas Barrie/Aviation Week & Space Technology

Israel pulled out all the stops technologically in its recent raid on Syria, employing several new intelligence-gathering and strike systems in a chain of events stretching from satellite observations to precision bombing of a target thought to be a nuclear facility.

Syria's internal politics might have contributed to the apparent success of the Sept. 6 mission. The target was so highly classified in Damascus that the military wasn't briefed and, therefore, air defenses were unprepared, says an Israeli official.

But the absence of a dense air defense around the facility didn't stop Israel from digging deep into its technology quiver, drawing on the newest technologies in its arsenal.

The first piece of the puzzle is linked to the launch of a new reconnaissance satellite this summer. It allowed the integration of several advanced technologies, including electro-optical imaging from space, image enhancing algorithms, scene-matching guidance for precision weapons, and the use of advanced targeting pods carried by the Israeli air force's two-man F-16Is, which are not yet available on its F-15Is.

Israeli and U.S. Officials will not reveal operational details or even the actual target under threat of criminal prosecution. Political and military leaders in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem don't want to humiliate or anger Syria by providing details of the attack. The desire to avoid any discussion of the event extended to an apology for violating Turkish airspace. Turkey found unmarked drop tanks inside its border with Syria that officials believe came from Israeli warplanes conducting the raid.

"If Israeli planes indeed penetrated Turkish airspace, then there was no intention thereby, either in advance or in any case, to -- in any way -- violate or undermine Turkish sovereignty," said Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. He apologized for "any violation that may have occurred." Egyptian and Syrian press reports had accused Turkey of either turning a blind eye to the operation or actively cooperating. In past years both the U.S. (warplanes) and Syria (an errant Scud missile) have made similar apologies to Turkey.

But in a series of interviews with Aviation Week & Space Technology, various specialists explained several of the technologies and how they were used. "Reality is more impressive than your imagination in some areas," says a senior military officer.

Space observations provided early planning details for the raid.

The key satellite for the Syrian raid was Ofeq-7 launched on June 11. It has multispectral and high-resolution electro-optical sensors and a resolution far better than a half-meter, although exact figures are classified. The spacecraft also provides a tactical downlink to transmit imagery directly to combat forces, industry officials note.

The orbiting of Ofeq-7 improved the Israeli Defense Force's operational capabilities by dozens of percent, said Brig. Gen. Haim Eshet, director of space programming at Israel's Defense Research and Development Directorate (AW&ST Sept. 17, p. 28). The space images were then improved by specialized imagery enhancement algorithms to sharpen pictures for planning precision bombing attacks.

Israel also is in the process of further upgrading its space intelligence operations. It plans to launch the nation's first Polaris/TecSat military imaging radar satellite from India as part of a cooperative effort between the two countries. The new satellite will have an electronically steered, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) with 1-meter resolution in high-resolution mode. In strip mode, the system could deliver a resolution of 3-8 meters. The spacecraft should be able to gather 40 images per pass of a target, with most of the processing done on the ground.

The primary aircraft for the Syrian raid were some of the new, two-man Lockheed Martin F-16Is (Sufa or Storm) that Lockheed Martin began delivering to the Israeli air force (IAF) in February 2004. The backseater is a weapon systems officer who can focus on targeting and electronic warfare while the pilot focuses on flying and evading air defenses (AW&ST Oct. 8, p. 28). Conformal fuel tanks give the fighters an unrefueled combat radius of more than 500 MI., which almost matches the unrefueled range of F-15Is that would normally escort a flight of strike aircraft. However, the F-16I can carry both the Derby medium-range radar missile and the shorter-range Python 4 and 5 infrared air-to-air missiles.

Sensors on the $45-million F-16I includes an APG-68(V)9 radar with high-resolution synthetic aperture radar mapping capability and about 30% more range that other mechanically scanned radars. But more importantly for this raid, the fighter has the Litening targeting pod. Its EO imagery can be used for seeker cueing. Litening is so far deployed only on the IAF's F-16Is, not the F-15s. It was the sensor of choice partly because of its image-stabilization algorithms coupled with the 1,000 X 1,000-pixel charge-coupled device detector to provide high-resolution imagery.

That imagery can be used for scene-matching with the observations made by the satellite. The pod also can provide the scene matching for images sent by the precision weapons carried by the F-16Is -- in this case the Spice-2000 missile. However, in planned scenarios, the military would draw on enhanced satellite imagery for the weapon. The satellite pictures also can be provided in flight and, after a few minutes of manipulation, be uploaded into the weapon; but in the Syria scenario, that capability was apparently not required.

The Spice-2000 is part of a family of weapons being developed by Rafael, but it's the only one currently operational with the Israeli air force (the Spice-1000 is in final qualification trials). Owing to a wing kit, the 2,000-lb. version has a standoff range exceeding 60 km. (37 mi.), which is considerably longer than the standard U.S.-build Joint Direct Attack Munition.

The IAF considers standoff capability a must since "Syria has the biggest air defense capability in the Middle East," says a senior Israeli military official. "They've been investing in it, they're investing today, and they'll invest in the future. They're trying to get the best. The Tor is a very good air defense system, and they chose it because they could get 29 systems for the same cost as one-and-a-half S-300 surface-to-air missile systems."

The Tor-M1 (SA-15 Gauntlet) is a mobile point defense system, while the S-300 (SA-10/SA-20) provides a medium- to long-range air defense capability. Israeli officials continue to monitor discussions between Damascus and Moscow about a potential S-300 sale, and are quietly working diplomatic channels to stop that from happening. One military planner notes that even though the S-300 is a formidable air defense system, after several months of watching it operate in Syria, solutions to defeat it would quickly emerge. It would not alter the strategic balance, he asserted.

Although Spice is preferred when there's time to plan the mission (as was the case in the recent attack), for fast response strikes, the IAF would rely on its lineup of laser-guided weapons. The service recently announced it had bought the Eblit Systems Lizard LGB. In general, the air force has decided to depend less on GPS-navigation weapons because of fears that the satellite signal could be jammed, altered or turned off. There's also concern that using GPS bombs leaves much room for error. Target location inaccuracies introduced during planning and by the GPS-kit itself (around 10 ft.) could lead to a miss.

By contrast, Spice-2000 has an EO guidance sensor for terminal-phase target updates. It matches a large scene with what the seeker sees, so even if the precise target is obscured by smoke or clouds, the weapon can determine its impact point. Only if the seeker cannot make a match does the weapon default to GPS navigation.

"We can work with or without GPS [because] there's a real-time scene-matching algorithm [and] midcourse navigation [adjustments via Link-16 data communications]," says a specialist. "It takes a few minutes to manipulate the data on the aircraft [and] make a mission planning file. We can use regular satellite data. An auto-reference to the bomb's [internal guidance system] creates a launch envelope. It goes to GPS if there's no match."

That doesn't mean Israel is backing away from GPS-guided weapons. "From the operational point of view, we want alternatives," the senior officer says. "I believe we must have GPS, but we have unique and good alternatives with platforms, weapons and systems that are better than GPS. We're developing new combinations all the time."

In addition to the military objective of destroying the target, the raid on Syria also had important international and domestic political overtones, notes one Israeli official. The goal was to send a strategic signal to the region about Israel's willingness to act. Moreover, for the IAF, the mission was an important step. The armed forces are grappling with lessons learned from last year's Lebanon war and a potential budget shift to the ground forces. As a result, the air arm wanted to signal its continued importance to national defense.

===============================================

Le vendredi 05 octobre 2007

Israël aurait manipulé les radars syriens

Agence France-Presse

Washington

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/arti...14/CPMONDE

Les avions de chasse israéliens ayant opéré un raid en Syrie en septembre ont échappé à la vigilance des radars syriens grâce à un système induisant en erreur les réseaux de détection ennemis, selon des experts cités par le site Internet du magazine spécialisé «i»Aviation Week»/i».

Selon des responsables militaires et des industriels de défense américains, les F-15 et F-16 de l'armée israélienne pourraient avoir été équipés du système «Suter» d'attaque aérienne de réseaux, développé par le groupe britannique de défense BAE Systems, qui équipe les drones américains (avions sans pilote).

Ce système a été testé en Irak et en Afghanistan au cours de l'année, selon «i»Aviation Week»/i».

Cette technologie très avancée permet de localiser les capteurs ennemis avec précision et de leur envoyer de fausses informations et de fausses cibles, camouflant ainsi les appareils en approche.

La radio militaire israélienne a finalement confirmé mardi pour la première fois qu'Israël avait mené une attaque aérienne en Syrie le 6 septembre.

Dans la foulée du raid, la Syrie avait affirmé que sa défense anti-aérienne avait tiré le 6 septembre sur des appareils israéliens ayant violé son espace aérien.

Le président syrien Bachar al-Assad a affirmé lundi que l'objectif du raid israélien du mois dernier était «un bâtiment militaire désaffecté» et n'avait atteint «rien de conséquent».

Selon des informations de la presse américaine et britannique, l'aviation israélienne aurait bombardé un site soupçonné d'abriter des activités nucléaires dans lesquelles la Corée du Nord pourrait être impliquée.