Where in the world is Shaker al-Absi?

It's official: Shaker al-Absi fled the Nahr el Bared camp before the army generals announced their final push into the Fateh al-Islam hideout. DNA testing on a body believed to be his, and identified as Absi by his wife, daughter and a Palestinian cleric, proved that it wasn't him. It seems unlikely the Fatah al-Islam leader is genetically unrelated to his offspring and kin (samples were reportedly taken from his daughters and brother). 

In Jordan, al-Absi's brother said Lebanese authorities didn't know how to conduct DNA testing and insisted his brother was dead. However, Lebanese prosecutor Said Mirza announced today that the body lying in a Tripoli morgue was not Absi's.

Mirza said a captured Fatah al-Islam militant from Yemen confessed that he had fled the camp with Absi at 11pm on Saturday night, some 12 hours before the army declared victory. Absi was in "good health and wearing a suicide belt and carrying a Kalashnikov, magazines and hand grenades", the Yemeni militant was quoted as saying by Mirza.

I think I will accept Mirza's statement that Absi is alive and on the run. Unfortunately, it appears as though a red line has been observed with his alleged escape and disappearance. Absi's arrest would have provided solid evidence against the Syrian regime, possibly for use by the UN commission investigating the Hariri assassination and crimes linked to Fatah al-Islam. The UN commission has been investigating links between the groups that claimed responsibility for some of the murders and Fatah al-Islam.

With the Lebanese army's military intelligence handling the investigation into Fatah al-Islam, and given that the top generals have already concluded the group was "100 % al-Qaeda", the affair is starting to resemble the attempted cover up that followed the Hariri murder. At the time, the pro-Syrian authorities quickly blamed the assassination on an extremist organization, and a tape carrying the confession of the alleged suicide bomber was aired by al-Jazeera. The UN commission later concluded the individual in the tape had nothing to do with the assassination. 

Just like the Hariri assassination required planning and intelligence work, so did the operations carried out by Fatah al-Islam inside and outside the refugee camp. Sadly, it looks like the sacrifice made by over 160 Lebanese soldiers is being wasted by some pro-Syrian army Lebanese chiefs, some of whom were "educated" in Syrian army institutions. Last week, this blog quoted reports claiming that some Lebanese army officers facilitated the escape of Syrian intelligence officers who were running Fatah al-Islam. 

March 14 continues to remain silent over the army's exoneration of Syrian intelligence. When asked by LBC's Marcel Ghanem last week why army commander Michel Suleiman exonerated Syrian intelligence, Walid Jumblatt said, "I understand why Suleiman would say that, he has his considerations." Jumblatt refused to explain what these "considerations" were, saying that he did not want problems with the army commander.

Comments

[ghassan karam]

It looks like a large segment of the Lebanese populace is still more interested in promoting the interests of foreign powers at the expense of the national interest and for that the blame does not lie outside of the country.How sad it is when many in a country have no qualms about helping the enemies of the state attain their objectives. The truth has a way of coming out eventually and the rascals who are bent on acting as "agents" of foreign powers will have to pay for their transgressions.

[ghassan karam]

That general Suleiman and the army intelligence is interested in obfuscation is very evident. But who is behind the DNA testing? Aren't these tests done by the government agencies? I have checked a few web pages in the US to find out the time required for DNA tests to be completed and each of them spoke of a period of seven to 10 days. It looks that the government labs might have pronounced their DNA results prematurely. Have they had ten days to collect the DNA samples from all the concerned parties and to conduct the required test? I do not have an exact time line but I am inclined to say that the labs have not had ten days to conduct the required tests.

(BTW, why was the public subjected to the awful picture of the A16 corps? This picture serves no purpose at all and should not have been supplied by the government.)

[fubar]

The truth has a way of coming out eventually and the rascals who are bent on acting as "agents" of foreign powers will have to pay for their transgressions.

Excuse me but what a piece of crap. The truth has a way of coming out eventually...after it is far too late to be of any use as the damage has already been done. They will pay for their transgressions...maybe in another life, Ghassan.

(JPost) Fifty soldiers were wounded after Palestinians fired a Kassam rocket into Israel on Monday night.

The rocket struck inside an IDF basic training camp in Zikim, located one kilometer north of the Gaza Strip. The Kassam landed next to a tent in which a group of soldiers were sleeping.

*******

Anyone willing to bet there will not a response to that?

[fubar]

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Iran's Judiciary chief said arrogant powers' animosity towards the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has resulted from the latter's outstanding role in exporting revolution and bringing a major change to the movements of Islamic nations.

Addressing senior officials of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps here on Monday, Ayatollah Seyed Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi underlined the valuable and effective stand of the IRGC, and reminded, "Before being a military force for the Islamic Republic, the IRGC is a force serving the Islamic Revolution."

He further viewed protection of the values and high goals and ideals of the revolution in the region and the entire world as the main mission of the IRGC, and said that the Corps has many social, cultural, economic and international duties to serve, in addition to its military responsibilities.

Shahroudi also described the popular and spiritual nature of the IRGC as the main cause of its popularity in Iran and other Islamic countries.

Noting the recent efforts made by the US to label the IRGC as a terrorist group, he said, "They (the US officials) feel animosity towards the IRGC because they feel that this movement safeguards the spirit, essence and reality of the Islamic Revolution in the whole world."

"The arrogant powers' animosity towards the Guards Corps is due to the giant role of this force in exporting revolution and in changing the movements of the Islamic nations," the head of Iran's judiciary said.

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TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- A Lebanese presidential candidate called for consolidated ties between Iran and all political groups of his country.

Speaking to FNA in Beirut on Monday, presidential nominee and member of the majority fraction in the Lebanese parliament Petros Harb noted Iran's role and standing in Lebanon and region, and praised Tehran's extensive aids and assistance with his country's resistance movement.

"We demand that Iran have relations with all the Lebanese groups and not just the Shiites," he said, adding, "It should be proved to everyone that Iran's ties with Hezbollah are restricted to merely religious relations."

The presidential hopeful further described his relations with the Lebanese Hezbollah as good, and said that he has cordial ties with several Hezbollah representatives.

Harb also voiced support for the recent plan introduced by Lebanese Parliament Speaker and well-known opposition leader Nabih Berri for the upcoming presidential elections in that country, and described it as a good initiative.

He further called on the advocates of the 14th of March movement to provide a response for Berri's plan.

**********

Really, someone should test the water in Lebanon. Just saying...

[jay]

anyone listening.... (Jumblatt from PSP.org)
ومع إنتهاء معركة مخيم نهر البارد التي حسمت لمصلحة الوطن والسيادة التي لا تراجع عنها. فإن المطلوب اليوم من القضاء العسكري طرح الحقائق كاملة أمام الرأي العام دون أي إلتباسات لا سيما حول مصدر فتح الإسلا

[Shunkleash]

EXPOSE FOLKS!! The contents of the latest letter our intrepid news men uncovered is below. It was written by the PM and is addressed to General Ras EIREEEEEE!;

Dear General EIR MABROOM!

The next time you decide to tighten a noose around pajama boys, you freaking moron, make sure you tie a knot when you're done. Where you from? Balbek?

By the way because of your monumental negligence and attendant dishonesty and treachery "NO PRESIDENCY FOR YOU!" KHALAS!

Yours faithfully
Marcel Marceu aka Manyouk Msouwez your PM ExtraordinEIR

p.s. Lets have tea sometime:-)

Now you see fellas someone is doing a good job RIGHT??!! Someone is definitely on the ball!

SO, how can you all claim that we are leaderless or rudderless when we have such as shrewed bunch of politicos leading us to the gallows. I fully expect to see Nabih Berri named speaker for life when all is said and done. HOW??? you ask. Well, simple Watsons! because he steadfastly fucked us for almost a year (for our own good of course)to reach a settlement to the totally fabricated political impasse. Of course the poor misunderstood speaker did it for the benefit of ALL LEBANESE who are Shiite and are aligned to Amal or hizbteezee and pay open homage to Syria and Iran as opposed to the place they are currently shitting on. We are truly, truly, truly a lucky bunch of coconuts aint we?

As I said before and will say again...CONSENSUS baloney! Have the god damn VOTE...vote till your hearts content you sniveling bunch of sycophants...THAT IS WHY WE PUT YOU THERE! You ass wipe pols keep forgetting that we put you there to represent US not your homies! If I want consensus, I will TELL YOU when i want it, until then---->VOTE!!

Ayesh Lubnan (without the pols)

[anonymous]

How sad !!! Tfeh;Tfeh;Tfeh...

[ghassan karam]

Would anyone who feels qualified to shed some light on the science of the DNA testing procedure please help enlighten us on this matter.
I have double checked the time line with regards to the Absi DNA testing and it seems to raise some questions about the validity of the tests.
The corps in question, A16, was taken to the morgue in Tripoli on 9/2/2007. I imagine that DNA testing did not start immediately but that the officials waited to have the body identified by Mrs. Absi. Furthermore they needed to obtain DNA specimen from the other members of the Absi clan, at least one of whom resides in Jordan. Under the best of conditions, I imagine that the specimen were not ready for the testing until say 9/4/2007. And this is where a potential problem with the DNA tests arises. The results were announced on 9/10/2007 but might have been concluded on 9/9/2007 when all lab sites that I have visited on the web indicate that such tests require 7-10 days. It seems that the tests in Lebanon were conducted and the results released within 5 days; was there a rush to judgement and why not send the samples to a different lab in order to double check on the validity of the results.

[JoseyWales]

I knew there was something fishy when DNA results came out in 24 hours (vs 10 days). But then I thought, hey, maybe CSI-Tripoli has labs even more advanced than those on American TV.

Mirza has yet to crack ONE case open, ONE. I hear that, looking with both hands, he's hoping to find his own ass very soon. And the civilian judiciary ain't much better.

Sleiman's "considerations": Prez election, and I-don't-want-Bashar-to-kill-my-sister-who lives-in-Syria.

Thank you Sfeir for keeping Lahoud and all the army's top brass in iffice, when they were a very low hanging fruit, a long long time ago. Mar Maroun is proud of you: NO ONE, BUT NO ONE, REMOVES A MARONITE PREZ even if he is a traitor donkey who is bent on getting us killed.

[Tony]

Abu Kais, see the report in Asharq al-Awsat today about the role Qatar may have played in this. Qatar allegedly tried to intervene to get Fateh Islam people to... Syria! But hey, Syria has nothing to do with Fateh Islam!

[Jeha]

Ghassan,

I have forwarded your question to Pazuzu, whom I feel may have a better grasp on this.

[Abu Kais]

Ghassan,

Some private labs offer "rush" services for 3-4 days, depending on the kind of test. I imagine that the police can do it in less time, sometimes in 1-2 days if not hours if the right equipment is there.

[Jeha]

AK,

I understand some labs can rush things, but the enzymes that are needed for the testing cannot be rushed. I recall one of bio student who was always delayed, having to wait for his "little workers" to do their magic.

No matter how hard one works, those things impose a limitation on how fast one can rush work.

[ghassan karam]

AK, Jeha
Thanks for the input regarding the time required for a DNA test. I am no scientist but only a skeptic especially when the body was positively identified by more than one person and inspite of the horrible picture the face was not disfigured beyond recognition. I also wonder why not retest and also why not compare the DNA of the corps with that of a personal item from Mr. Al Absi's personal belongings such as a tooth brush, comb etc.. and why no word about the dental records. When in doubt there are a few steps that can be taken to ascertain the results.

[Bad Vilbel]

You wonder why, Ghassan? Still? After all the incompetence we've witnessed over the years? Combined with all the conspiracy theories and cover ups?

I don't.

[Umm K.]

Even if the wife identified him as "dead", I would bet a year's salary that she's lying like crazy. DNA tests or not, I'm sure the man is not dead and alive and well.

[Bad Vilbel]

I am actually inclined to agree with Um Kais on this one. Putting aside the seeming incompetence of the Lebanese judiciary (and their DNA tests), the whole affair seems too fishy from one standpoint specifically: Absi's wife and brother (who is in Jordan, mind you, and has not identified the body) are INSISTENT the man is dead.

They seem a bit TOO insistent. I would have expected something more along the lines of "I haven't been able to see the body, but if there's any hope that he's still alive, we're praying for his safe return to us" (from the brother in Jordan). That's how loved ones tend to think. Not "He's dead. I'm sure of it. The Lebanese government doesn't know how to conduct DNA tests!" (Which screams cover-up and political statement, more so than grief).

My theory is that Absi (like many terrorists and criminals before him) is trying to "fake his own death" (think Carlos the Jackal) to get the authorities off his trail. The wife and brother know it. This plan was probably pre-arranged before the wife was evacuated from the Nahr El Bared.

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm speechless:

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Now Lebanon reports:

Well-informed sources told NOW Lebanon that shortly before midnight on Monday, September 10, Wiam Wahhab’s three-car convoy returning to Lebanon from Syria aroused the suspicions of customs officials at the Lebanese-Syrian border checkpoint.

Observing that one of Wahhab’s cars appeared to be heavily loaded down, almost dragging on the ground, customs officials grew suspicious that the vehicle might be carrying illegal weapons and asked to inspect it.

Wahhab refused, and threatened that his bodyguards would open fire on anyone who tried to approach the vehicle and turn the checkpoint area into a "sea of blood." He also insulted the Lebanese government and Security Services.

Customs officials eventually let the convoy through uninspected. An investigation has since been opened into the incident, examining both Wahhab and why the convoy was permitted to pass without being searched.

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What the hell??? First off, I'm amazed at how these guys in the opposition consistently feel like their above the law. What? Me being stopped and searched by Customs (or any other legitimate state institution)??? The horror!! I wonder if Mr. Wahhab behaves this way when traveling abroad...I'd like to see him pull that stunt at LAX or at the French-German border.

Second: And even more disturbing. The customs guys were intimidated by the threats and let the convoy through!!! WTF? No wonder no one respects the law in this country. Apparently, if you yell and threaten louder than the law, those in charge of enforcing it cower in fear and let you through. I think I might try yelling and cussing at the Highway Patrol officer, next time he pulls me over. You think it'll get me out of a ticket? :)

[Jeha]

In a sense, the story above is just why this whole thing sounds fishy.. Customs is still heavily under the influence of Hezb, so their interaction with Wahab is odd in this respect.

The same feeling applies to the DNA thing; the sudden speed of a cumbersomely slow judiciary is add as well. I am afraid that Absi is still alive, but my fear is deeper.

I am not sure whether the government's certainty is based on fact/evidence, or rather that it is based on more direct information/knowledge.

The whole things reeks, and I afraid the rot goes deeper than we think, but lest we succumb to paranoia, we need to start asking questions somewhere, and the lab testing is as good a place as any to start. Call it the "domino theory" of information.

[Roverer]

The whole Nahr El-Bared stunt is a CIA Operation from
A to Z, although Syrian tried to infiltrate the teams....
grow up boyz....

[Pankaj Sohaney]

In Lebanon and Middle East Eastern Biotech is the best option for accurate and cheap DNA testing services including Paternity Test.