The rules are changing, but will Lebanon make it?

French FM Bernard Kouchner told reporters a few days ago that if Syria allows the election to take place, and stop blowing people up in Lebanon and the region, it will be rewarded with more open relations. But if the Saudi snub is any indication, the regime has no intention to let the country elect a president. According to Kuwait's al-Rai, the Saudis canceled Moallem's visit after failing to get a commitment from Damascus on the Lebanese presidential election.

The Israeli operation in Syria caught the regime by surprise. Al-Rai claims a missile factory built with North Korean and Iranian help was targeted. The location of the factory was thought to be safe, since Israeli planes need to enter Turkish airspace to bomb it, which they did, prompting the regime to send their foreign minister to Ankara. The Turks didn't seem too concerned, leaving the Assad regime to feel increasingly isolated and vulnerable.

The Syrian response to the Israeli operation will likely come through Lebanon and Gaza. Al-Rai predicted more rockets to Lebanon, and an escalation through sabotaging the presidential election and expanding the Hizbullah rebellion in the country (not that they needed an excuse for all that). 

It seems the Americans and the Israelis will not watch idly this time. As I type these words, reports are surfacing of an Israeli commando operation in Niha in the Bekaa valley (update: The army denied it. But then, the army also said Fateh al-Islam has nothing to do with Syrian intelligence!).

It appears as though the world has run of out patience for the Assad regime. Dialogue and initiatives were exhausted, and they were all interpreted by Lebanon's eastern neighbor as validation of bad behavior. Are the rules of the game finally changing? Are the Israelis learning to not fear attacking Syria, and is the US finally going to retaliate against Syria and Iran for wrecking its Iraq project, and trying to do the same to Lebanon? The US ambassador to Lebanon yesterday said the US is discussing "several initiatives" with the Lebanese government on how to halt the smuggling of weapons across the Syrian border, adding that there's a strong evidence of arms being smuggled to Hizbullah. We'll have to wait and see what all of this means.

There's no doubt in my mind that there will be more swift and limited attacks on Syrian and possibly even Hizbullah targets. As for Iran, they probably got until next spring, or until the Syrians are dealt with. The Assad regime is quickly running out of options, except those that involve terror.

In Lebanon, the attention the Berri initiative received has never been out of love for the speaker, and it definitely does not translate into weaker backing of March 14. It's probably positive encouragement, and a last attempt to shield Lebanon from the horror awaiting Assad and Ahmadinejad. It might not work, and Lebanon might find itself in Syria and Iran's surrogate battleground as usual. In any case, I think those regimes can no longer assume their territories are off the battle chart. The stakes are that high for everyone.

Needless to say, tough times are ahead for Lebanon. The presidential election is producing unnecessary cracks in the March 14 coalition, some not publicized. It is feared that the deputies may not even be able to produce a majority vote. But things are not that bad yet on that front. The Berri proposal, in part designed to divide March 14 or at least show them as agents of war, has failed to create a rift Hizbullah and the Assad regime dream about every night. In fact, Berri's initiative, though probably a waste of time given the Assad regime's plan, had the effect of finishing off Michel Aoun's presidential project. That Aoun's only stated hope now is to preside over Hizbullah country speaks volumes of the general's political bankruptcy. His supporters are dwindling, and even if they're not, FPM members will soon have to choose between a US-imposed terrorist label and their mad general.

Fingers are crossed for our little country.

Comments

[Tony]

The Turks didn't seem too concerned, leaving the Assad regime to feel increasingly isolated and vulnerable.

Actually, reports say that the Turks provided the IAF with intelligence for the operation.

[Bad Vilbel]

Good write-up AK. It sure looks like things are finally coming to a head on more than one front, both internal and regionally speaking.

For those who recall the lengthy debates on this very blog, from 6-9 months ago, I think most of us saw all of this coming and predicted the current state of affairs with fairly good accuracy.

Those who advocated "talking to Syria" have probably now come to see that nothing good was ever going to come of that, and those of us who advocated isolation are now wondering why things were allowed to drag so long. Syria was given chance after chance, by the Saudis and the West, to do good on the litmus test (as Tony refers to it), and it seems like patience has finally run out on that front.

More importantly, it seems the unspoken "red line" of Israel hitting Syria directly (instead of by proxy in Lebanon) has finally been crossed. While I am not one to rejoice at any nation attacking any other nation, I have to admit that my first reaction was "They should've done this LAST summer!" instead of reassuring the Syrians that the IDF had no intention of attacking Syria, and that Lebanon would be the only target in the '06 war (talk about a dumb move, there).

I think, at this juncture, we're way past worrying about the presidential election. Bigger things are in motion, and they seem to involve regime change in Damascus. Bashar's days are quickly coming to an end, in my opinion.

[Shunkleash]

As I sit over the soup my wife thinks is tabouleh I can't help but think that part of the problem in lebanon is the general malaise that seems to have crept into the everyday life of the people. Im tempted to say its a feeling of inevitability but I know where it comes from. Lebanese, generally speaking, are averse to labour hence their legendary creativity and my wifes tabouleh! They always look for a quick fix to every problem much like Gotham waiting for Batman or Superman. Unfortunatley, the guys they bank on to save them do in fact have big ole "S"'s or pictures of "Bats" on their tighty whiteys but it actually stands for vampires, rodents, slime, stain, snot, sukleen, snoobar, shit or or just generally any of the above! However, its still hard to understand, after all everywhere in the world people power tends to cement change (the philipines, Panama, Ukraine, Russia etc)...but alas the only change the lebanese seem to want is the few pieces of copper thrown at them from the pockets of wealthy benfactors.

My guess is the quickening of Syria's isolation will be missed by the majority of lebanese and they will once again miss a golden chance to wipe the slate clean. Regretably, when we still give credence to nonsensical statements from clerics pretending to be constitutional experts, or wait with baited breath for "initiatives" from discredited and morally bankrupt mailmen, or the next tea party being thrown by the grande dame of the serail, or vagina monologues from monotone robots...im afraid the road we must travel is going to be a long one.

Regardless, i continue to have faith and will also keep my fingers crossed. The latest developments do seem to create opportunities it will just take someone with buydot to wake up and strike a boot to the ass of those bent on causing grief. But please AK lets not have any more nooses to tighten! Im still trying to figure out the gordian knot that Shaker Al absi managed to squeeze through:-)

Anyways, back to the soup (less moist recipes would be welcome)

Ayesh Lubnan

[Jeha]

Finally,

A dialogue with Syria. Who said there was nothing to talk to the Syrians about? There are many issues that can be addressed; weapons factories, smuggling routes, terrorist camps...

All those issues can be dialogued away with the business end of a missile. Unlike last summer, when Israel bombed the hostages of Syrian terror, it appears the whole world may now targeting the masterminds.

But before we rejoice at this Bombs Ahoy!, let's keep in mind that how much its "liberation" is costing Iraq, and more importantly, let's hope Kaddafi's example is not followed by bani Assad.

[e]

If Assad does a Khadaffi, why is that bad for Lebanon? If he agrees to not support HA and leave Lebanon alone, why not let him stay in power? Let the Syrians get rid of him if they want to.

Until last summer HA was seen by most Lebanese as a resistance movement that could be tamed through national dialogue. Until last summer most of the Lebanese were sufferring from Stockholm syndrome and were both hostages and kidnappers. I think many Lebanese snapped out of their Stockholm syndrome state after the July war.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

Jeha,

"...But before we rejoice at this Bombs Ahoy!, let's keep in mind that how much its "liberation" is costing Iraq, and more importantly, let's hope Kaddafi's example is not followed by bani Assad".

What did you mean exactly? Why not "Kaddafi's example" ?
.

[JoseyWales]

AK,

Earlier today i did find the Lebanonfile story you linked to:Israeli operation near Niha in the Bekaa.

However, I could not find confirmation elsewhere, and now Lebanonfile seems to have taken it down.

Updates anyone?

[ghassan karam]

Alas , a large segment of the Lebanese insists to act as to promote the interests of the enemies of the state. As long as they do that then we will continue to be marginalised in this "great game" instead of playing an active role in it.
Lebanon will make it through the mazes of this game , but the journey would be so much less fraught with uncertainty and instability if the majority of the Lebanese will stand up to HA and its allies. A nation , just like an individual, must act and think free if it is to attain real sovereignty and freedom. Our current crew at the hem, just does not have what it takes yet and we have to push them to develop some spine. But we will get there if for no other reason but the fact that the other side is working against history.

[Charlie]

A Lebanon will make it. But how will it look like is unsure at this point. One thing I sure hope is for whichever Lebanon emerge, Nabih Berri will not be at the head of that parliament. A democratic institution deserves a speaker who is going to vanguard that character and not turn it to a caucus that rubber stamps the presidential candidate. The Lebanese parliament has been marginal at best but this man has taken it to a new low…

[Solomon2]

Fingers are crossed for our little country.

That's what I'm afraid of. That pro-Lebanese will satisfy themselves with crossing their fingers, and thus yield the initiative to anti-Lebanese forces, who will proceed to rob you of hope.

It sounds to me like another excuse for doing nothing. Is there no fallback plan?

[Jeha]

Kaddafi made a deal with the West that allows him to continue oppressing his people and others, provided he continues to preserve their interests.

One hope we have for Bashar to remain as pigheaded and stubborn as ever. Things like this make me fear the worse for Lebanon; we have so far been lucky in the mistakes our country's many enemies have been making.

On the long run, this is dangerous, and we desperately need local leaders with a modicum of understanding of the world, or at least to know how to listen. Failing that, we'll be at the mercy of the first one to emulate Kaddafi.

[fubar]

(PressTV) Tehran has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Damascus to invest 10 billion US dollars in Syria in the next five years.

********

I don't think Assad is thinking of doing a Khadaffi, at least not as long as Iran keeps doubling down in Syria.

[ghassan karam]

Fubar,
I am in agreement with you that Iran will not make it either easy or simple for Syria to pull a Qaddafi but yet we need to keep in mind that Letters of Understanding are a dime a dozen. They are usually not legally binding and only express the desire of the parties to consider a seriier of actions in the future. We also have to remember that ten years is a very long time. I will be surprised if their is a Bashar regime by then. And one more thing an average of $2 billion per annum representa around five percent of total Iranian net exports of energy. Are they that desparate to invest so much in propping up the Syrian Ba'ath? I have never taken MoU seriously .

[Jeha]

The USD 2 Billion per year is pretty good; it makes up for the regime's shortfall stemming from its withdrawal from Lebanon.

The regime has suffocated the economy so much that it needs to do very little to give the appearance of progress. I am always amazed on how many arcane rules govern the Syrians... Just allowing more teller machines would be viewed as a huge leap forward. As a Syrian friend once pointed out to me, they have learned not to think; aside from mundane survival or business issues, they do not bother to investigate much.

As Lebanese, we tend to focus on Syria. I am afraid, however, the real target is Iran, and the real game may have a "longer span".This and other projects only serve to "bleed" Iran's economy of much needed resources before the final reckoning. Unless Iranian "realists" are able to take over from the "true believers", the Mullahs' rule may not last.

[Lira]

AK,

Both Al Rai and lebanonfiles are known for sensational stories and lesser credibility than mainstream media.

I really cannot see a change in American policy towards the Syrian regime before the Iraq withdrawal and the date to such a withdrawal is still a big unknown; the Americans just cannot afford losing/deploying more GI's in the current timeframe.

Your case for the imminence of the Iranian/Syrian front(s) is practically based on two unreliable sources.

Regards

[ghassan karam]

The Observer has a rather lengthy analysis in which they posit the question whether the highly sophisticated and intricate Israeli raid was a trial run for the potential raids on Iran. That is the better explanation of what has transpired up until know and it can also explain Turkish involvement and the extra fuel tanks.

[Lira]

Well The Observer has a collection of intel/"insider" sources that point in the direction of a dry run on Iran.

Still I fail to see how much would that change America's rules of engagement in Lebanon, and by extension in Syria...

[another_someone]

Fixed?

[Jeha]

Sorry about this, my mistake.

This is an odd "feature" of this page or link; a "bold" command could carry over across other posts. Good thing that another_someone caught it and fixed it.

[Bad Vilbel]

Random book plug here, but I've just started reading "The Truth About Syria" by Barry Rubin. It's a fantastic book that delves into what makes the Syrian regime tick, and how (not that we don't already know a lot of this stuff). But it's really worth the read for anyone interested.

[Norm]

Today it sounds like Olmert is encouraging Assad to do a Qadaffi. Most people think Olmert is showing his weakness, but reading this website makes it very clear what Olmert is offering Assad...his political life before it all hits the fan. Another battle group of ships are settling into position. Time is running short for any dialogue.

[Lira]

Norm, what do you think of those ships, are they going to bomb or invade Damascus?