The death of parliament

Berri opened the door a crack today to shut it again soon after. The scene was surreal and sad at the same time. If you ask this blogger, it felt like a wake attended by both the killers and the victims. The deceased: parliament.

Lebanon's parliament on Tuesday put off a session to elect a new president until next month after the legislature failed to muster enough lawmakers because of a Hezbollah-led opposition boycott.

The announcement was made by a parliamentary official in the chamber after the bell rang three times to call the lawmakers into session. Lawmakers from the pro-government majority were in the chamber for 30 minutes, but many opposition members, who gathered in the building, stayed in the hallways. (AP)

Someone in March 14 will object to the above reporting, for it presumes that a 2/3 quorum is required and that Berri's presence is essential. But it doesn't really matter. Defiance was not in the air. Just death and the illusion of hope. Democracy has to wait for the letter to arrive in the mailbox, and until God whispers an explanation of the constitution in the patriarch's ear.   

From now until next month, when Berri opens the door again, nothing will happen, except more statements and counter statements, and attempts at "dialogue" punctured by assassinations. How wrong they are to think a "consensus" president will be found. Even if such a person is found, how long before he becomes a picture on an empty seat?

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Well, to be fair, it IS the constitutional right of the opposition MPs to boycott the session and prevent a quorum. That is a tool used in every democracy in the world.

Having said that, you are correct in your assumption that nothing will happen between now and October 23rd except perhaps more assassinations (which, unlike boycotts, are NOT legitimate tools of democracy).

[JoseyWales]

What is appalling is that the next session is a month away. Should have been a week.

Nothing is going to happen in 4 weeks other than give more time to the killers.

As to Sfeir, I hope he gets his ass in gear and starts saying "we attempted 2/3, it's over, we can now vote with 50%+1". It does not make any sense, but neither did his initial wrong and dangerous position.

M14 should put 3 names out there, that are reasonable and ask M8 to choose one. Barring that M14 should boycott Berri and his stupid meetings, and get together 10 day before November 24 as per the constitution and vote for their guy.

[Bad Vilbel]

Agreed, JW.

[JoseyWales]

BTW, picked up on Mustapha's latest post (from LBC), here's how you make points:

Mr Geagea neatly puts it: “We want a President whose relationship with March 14 is similar to that between Mr. Berri and March 8, or we’ll have to chose a different speaker of Parliament”.

[Bad Vilbel]

Yes. I saw that line myself. And it is indeed a GREAT line. That needs to be trumpeted loud and clear. If you guys want a speaker that's so close to M8, we get a president that's equally close to M14.

[Super Dude]

M14 already has the PM...

/ducks for cover.

[Bad Vilbel]

Yeah. But said PM is not recognized by the opposition.

[ghassan karam]

The really sad thing is that no one is acting as if the law and the constitution matters. So Beri decides to unshutter his "Dukan" for a few hours in over a year to slam the door shut again . He can get away with such scandalous behaviour only because the other members of the parliament allow him to do so. Since there is no such thing as, if you will excuse the expression, half a state of pregnancy, there is no such thing as half a democracy or half a freedom and therefore Beri and his outrageous behaviour must not be tolerated if the Lebanese experiment is to proceed. But unfortunately there is no outrage and as AK has put it so aptly a number of times previously, in the land of everything goes , everything goes.

[Ace]

There were enough of them in the building. It should have been "locked down". No exit until a President has been elected. Cut off the cell phone transmissions and phone land line. Let the media in to film the whole mess.

[Jeha]

AK,

Call it the death of Lebanon. If we cannot work within institutions, some will decide that we are better off without them.

We've all been down this road before. I personally know it far too well. To all those who beg for us to shed blood again, I and many others will reply; "J'ai déjà donné". Many of us will not participate in the coming national mass suicide, since we know that it will only have losers.

Nasrallah hopes to succeed in this unilateralism where Kamal, Bashir and others failed. But he will fail as they did, and it will be bloodier than their failures. Let us hope Lebanon will survive, with enough Lebanese to keep it going.

[Bad Vilbel]

Death of Lebanon is right.

What do you mean "some will decide that we are better off without institutions"? Will decide? Future tense?
Some have ALREADY decided that we are better off without institutions. It's been going on for years!

[Jeha]

BV,

Yes, someone has decided. But it takes two to tango, and the "other" someone has yet to make his decision. It is as if M14 is setting itself up for s failure of democracy.

Indeed, it is reasonable to expect more assassinations to follow in the coming month, as they "wait" for elections to resume. After all, if you include the Tripoli block, M14 has a 4 MP lead... However, if you exclude them, there may be no "need" to assassinate anyone; let their individual cupidity break up M14.

[Shunkleash]

I personally beleive that Berri intentionally left the door open to have a president elected by 50% +1 because he has come to realise that the position is untenable. His dialogue talk is nonsense as usual. I also beleive that there is nothing sinister in that move since they all (Claoun, hizbteezee, Berri, Franjieh etc.) realise that this game is a no win situation for them. No side wants war...they will lose big and so will their masters.

on a brighter note I envisage a new parliament, with no Berri. A new president looking spiffy in a white suit. A new PM and Cabinet with no HA and Amal shit in it. Everyone ready to work to make some money and get the country rolling again.

As for Lahoud he will be on permanent vacation shining Bashars shoes in latakia and SAAAAAAD will be in disney world catching up on old times with Donald and the guys. Jumblatt will be at the Albert Einstein look a like convention and all the rest in extended hibernation.

We can play cat and mouse a little while longer, if Syria tries to evaporate someone in the meantime we pary they dont succeed. Why sweat this one...we will get to where we want to be.

Ayesh Lubnan

[Cedar Revolution]

A sad spectacle! While Aoun remains a useful idiot and the hired assassin of the Cedar Revolution, Berri is simply giving the assassins more time to kill additional members of M13 parliament so Syria's criminal junta can rule Lebanon again. Regarless of his blabla, Berri is the necessary accessory to the crime and an enemy of Lebanon's democracy... unlike the legacy of Imam Mousa El-Sadr that I deeply respect.

[Lover]

http://www.slickblog.wordpress.com

[ghassan karam]

Lover,
So you cannot be a terrorist and yet organize a mass demonstration? Give me a break and stop grasping at straws to justify the unjustifiable.

[ghassan karam]

Lover,
So you cannot be a terrorist and yet organize a mass demonstration? Give me a break and stop grasping at straws to justify the unjustifiable.

[Jeha]

GK,

Romeo can't help it; love is blind...

[fubar]

Romeo,

So, you are slick. 18 years wise. Hmmm, can't say that is a surprise. Let us all hope there is no civil war in Lebanon as that could definitely interrupt your plans to attend AUB and get an education.

I can hardly wait for your post "Hezbollah Revolution, Part 2".

[fubar]

(Time) Will Hizballah Attack U.N. Troops?
By Robert Baer/Beirut

Lebanon failed to elect a President Tuesday, continuing its drive along the abyss. A new parliamentary session is set for October 23, with the hope that a two-thirds quorum can finally be assembled by then to choose a successor to outgoing President Emile Lahoud. But his term runs out on November 24, and the chances of finding a compromise candidate, sources in Hizballah tell me, are nil.

The same sources tell me that Hizballah will never compromise with the March 14 movement, which it considers an American puppet. The March 14 movement is a political bloc that has promised to disarm Hizballah and take to trial the murderers of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The same Hizballah sources told me that an interim administration that shares any part of the March 14 agenda is also not acceptable to Hizballah, which controls a third of the seats in the parliament.

How determined is Hizballah to block the election of a President? "We will do whatever it takes to keep a pro-American President from coming to office," Hizballah said.

What that means is that aside from refusing the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a President in parliament, Hizballah is considering an attack on the French U.N. contingent in southern Lebanon. The aim of such a move would no only be to convince the French to stop meddling in Lebanon, but also to serve as a response to France's implicit threat to bomb Iran if Iran does not stop its nuclear development.

Hizballah has no obligation to tell me the truth, but I have little doubt that if provoked it would turn over the table and plunge Lebanon into another civil war. Hizballah is stronger than the Lebanese army, and its threats are not idle.

During the last 25 years the indelible red line for Hizballah has been keeping its arms. It says it needs them to drive the last Israeli forces out of Lebanon — a small slice of land called the Sheba Farms — and force Israel to release its remaining Lebanese prisoners of war. But it's more than that. Hizballah's military is its raison d'etre. If Hizballah gives up its arms, it is just another party in the dog's breakfast of Lebanese politics.

[Bad Vilbel]

"We will do whatever it takes to keep a pro-American President from coming to office," Hizballah said.

Lover, Ali and company: You guys still think this is some sort of Democracy? "Whatever it takes" = Civil war, Assassinations, WHATEVER IT TAKES.
You guys proud of that? Are you really still delluded enough to believe there is some sort of democratic state to be had under Hizballah?

What's it gonna take to get the blinders off you guys?

I have a feeling even if Hizballah were to turn their weapons against other Lebanese, blow up Parliament, and proclaim Hassan Nassrallah president, you guys would still find some way to blame it on Zionist conspiracies, and somehow justify it by pointing the accusing finger at March 14.

Wake up, guys!

[anon]

Shunkleash :Thx ..your post is like a fresh breeze ...

Lover: slick ??? or sick ??

[Jeha]

Romeo, Romeo! Wherefore art thou Romeo?
Deny thy brotha n refuse thy name;
What devil art thou, that dost torment us thus?
This torture should be roar’d in dismal hell.

Hath Lebanon been slain? the hurt is ours,
A plague o' both your houses! the nation's sped.
ask for it to-morrow, and ye shall find grave men.

[end whatchamacallit mode]

[Doha]

totally agree with you AK.

[Solomon2]

Even if such a person is found, how long before he becomes a picture on an empty seat?

Isn't that a good reason to put off choosing a president as long as possible? Is it not best, under the circumstances, to minimize or eliminate the time between the Lebanese president's election and his assumption of office?

[Hassan]

Here's a quotation from the head of the Catholic Church in Mozambique,
Archbishop Chimoio:
"Condoms are not sure because I know that there are two countries in
Europe, they are making condoms with the virus on purpose," he alleged,
refusing to name the countries.
"They want to finish with the African people. This is the programme.
They want to colonise until up to now. If we are not careful we will
finish in one century's time."
Source: BBC News.

It just struck me how similar this rhetoric is to the "stained money", "deportation of the Shia" and "American/Zionist conspiracy" talk we've all heard so much of. And of course, the speaker has proof but will not disclose it.

Akkhhhhhh... as Shunkleash says... Ayyesh Lubnan!!

[Jeha]

Making condoms with the virus on purpose, eh?

Those who claim divine inspiration tend to make such statements that cannot be proven. Their only "proof" is the unverifiable claim that they are inspired by the Divine. So They reverse the logic, and tend to put the onus on the skeptics to disprove them.

But they forget an essential concept; what can be claimed without proof can just as easily be rejected without proof.

Trouble is their "proof" is delivered from the business end of an AK...

[fubar]

"All right: where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right and who is dead." -- Dread Pirate Roberts

Damn, Hassan, why don't you just blow the whole Polio vaccine deal too, while you are at it. Do you have any idea how clever you have to be to get people to actually willingly kill themselves while the cure is dangled in front of them? Oh wait, what am I saying, you are from Lebanon, home of Hezbollah, so of course you do...

My bad.

[Hassan]

Yes fubar, it's kind of the same talent it takes to convince people that the Iraq campaign was part of the GWOT, communism was a zionist plot to destroy christianity, or the persians were all blond before the arabs invaded.
There are too many sheep in this world, and just enough demagogues to drive them all off the cliff.

[Jeha]

As in all demagogic lies, there is a grain of truth to all that.

1- early Persians may have had a higher proportion of blond and fair eyed early on. But they got "darker" as they settled in their new lands. Other Aryans undertook a similar pigmentation shift, in India. This is all related to the synthesis of Vitamins in the skin and how it is related to the region's illumination...

2- Communism was as much a Zionist plot to destroy Christianity as Baathimt of PSNS'ism was a "Roum" plot to destroy Islam. Minorities tend to regroup in "constestatory" parties.

3- Yes, the Iraq war is part of the GWOT, at least inasmuch as it is related to the tying of loose ends.

So, on towards the cliff, fellow lemmings...

[Charlie]

Oh I just love it when a member of organized religion takes on any issue; the humor is priceless..

[fubar]

Hassan, you are on a roll today. You must be great fun at parties.

I am right behind you, Jeha. Just like rapelling, only without the rope, of course. What fun. I'm going Australian. No fear!

/You did pick a cliff with deep water at the bottom, right?

[Jeha]

Fubar,

Check that; not planning to be a write-off. But, hey, take alf a mo my fellow digger before you go too Aussie or Kiwi on that gawk.

No matter the brass hats; I hear a furphy that Gallipoli ain't too far, with Jackos and their Beachy Bills that bonzer could make us some Anzac soup. I prefer to let the Chocs face the typewriters and try the gutzer for a change...

[ghassan karam]

I sure hope that Michael Young and others are completely wrong when they suggest that Saad Hariri the pretender, thinks that he has matured and that he is ready to assume the role of the next PM. The speculation does not stop at this but goes on to claim that Sa'ad would form a cabinet that would offer HA its veto power. What a disaste that would be. Isn't it enough to have Beri for a speaker, Aoun and Nasrallah in the opposition and spinless weeping willow as a PM? Can it get much worse than this. Apparently the Saudis and neophyte Sa'ad do not think that the current mess is either deep enough or wide enough, that is why they want to make sure that its acrid aroma stinks to the high heavens. Speaking about hollow victories...

[fubar]

Jeha,

Dude, you never cease to surprise me. You speak Aussie, WWI Aussie, but still. I would have guessed you were more in tune with the pommies.

"I prefer to let the Chocs face the typewriters and try the gutzer for a change..."

Chocs behind a typewriter is safest for everyone, but are you sure you are ready for a gutzer, we could end up as Anzac soup? No worries, mate. If we live, we'll get pissed on Victoria Bitter.

/The Australian War Museum has an awesome WWI display.

[fubar]

Ghassan,

One rumor is as good as the next but, really, Hariri does not need the baggage that comes with being PM.

But get used to the rumors, we will be treated to a month of them with not much else to talk about except the going price for an AK-47 in Beirut.

[naja]

"Hariri does not need the baggage that comes with being PM"

Like father, like son, my dear fubar. What Saad would be looking for is the right environment to be doing business in. Currently, that environment happens to work nicely with the idea of sovereignty and, if the needs of business require him to be at the helm, then like a good CEO he will grab the reigns just to make sure that Lebanon S.A.L is running smoothly. I happen to have woken up on my cynical side today so I'll say it bluntly: many in M14 don't want the Syrians simply because the idiots siphoned off far more than the share they were supposed to get. Assad pere was much too clever to be greedy. Sadly, Junior and his lot were not as prudent and failed to play the partner part. This, in the end, got the Hariris pissed off: the books were getting difficult to balance because the "protection" expenses were getting out of hand. This played right in the hands of the sovereignist camp - not some latter-day feeling of patriotism. And this, I'm afraid, remains the proviso that keeps M14 very much under scrutiny when it comes to their claims to be holier-than-thou (and feeds the opposition with juicy arguments).

[Doha]

Do you want something of a killer here? It's that in both meetings between Hariri and Berri and Hariri and Sfeir, talks about a consensus president came up but "no names were mentioned". What is this a trivia game?

[Jeha]

Fubar,

"If" we make it; the one going reassurance is that the of hardware has been steadily rising. This means not yet enough toys to go around... for now.

But I am afraid of another worse consequence; Naja may be right in considering that Piss Weak "would be looking for is the right environment to be doing business in", and could undermine much of what has been achieved...

[Traffic]

Jeha,
But let's not forget that Piss Weak's father was blown to pieces, and while it would be naive to ignore his business interests in Lebanon, we should also not be too quick to discredit any genuine intentions he might have.

[Bad Vilbel]

"No names were mentioned" my ass!

Like they really expect us to believe that kind of nonesense. They supposedly "discussed the qualities of the next president".

What kind of esoteric conversation is that? Are we to believe that kind of nonsense?

Saad: "Your holyness, I think the next president should be honest and decent. Don't you?"
Sfeir: "Of course, of course. If I may add a quality to your list: I think 'righteous' would be nice, no?"
Saad: Well, 'righteous' can convey the wrong impression. How about we shoot for 'honorable'? What says you?
Sfeir: 'Honorable'! Why I kinda like the ring of that! You're a good boy, Saad, would make your father proud.

*eyeroll*

[Jeha]

Traffic,

You're right. And while I empathize with the guy, so were 20 others. And the fact we're here is because Piss Weak's own party decided on an ill-advised electoral scheme, getting hezbo' in government, and upsetting the Christians so much they pushed up Aoun...

Politics is not about intentions; it is about results. So far, I think he's done a pretty poor job, and continues to make a bad situation even worse by avoiding hard decisions. By looking for compromise at all costs, they have effectively compromised Lebanon's future.

[JoseyWales]

I'm with Doha and BV,

These people think we are total idiots: NO NAMES? Give me a break!

And if true, then THEY are dumber than a box of nails.

Having said that, given that the lamo press does not question anything, maybe they think we are as dumb as the next journalist.

[Shunkleash]

Unfortunately guys, lebanon being what it is and our politicians being what they are, i have little faith in the quailty of the conversations to be had. This is so especially when you are talking about the "robot man" and the old man of hte mountain. I therefore pictured the conversation between SAAAAD and SFEEEER a little differently...if I may be given the floor?

SAAAAD: "Your holyness, I think the next president should be able to "talk" like Bashir Gemayal?

SFEEER: Yes, I agree! You are astute mittal bayek but you must ensure that he speaks the lebanese dialect!

SAAAAD: AH shookran ya batrak...inseet. You want a guy who says BANADOORA...instead of BANDOORA...got it!

SAAAAAD: OH! OH! OH! I have one, what about "looking spiffy in a white suit" just like Camille Chamoun? That has got to be the most important "quality" right!?

SFEEER; HUH? What?..who are you again?

SAAAAD: right?!...so have you played the new Halo 3 game yet? My Xbox ROCKS!!!

SFEEER: ooopsie...just peed myself again...gotta go...have a nice day now!

SAAAAD: FOUAAAAAAAAAD! Ta la han ya gandoor!...I HAVE DONE IT! We have a consensus president! He looks like Camille Chamoun, talks like Bashir Gemayel, and eats like Elias Hrawi....now go call my driver Skandar and tell him i have a job for him...YALLA ya HABOOB!

Sorry, couldn't help myself:-) Its late

[Traffic]

Jeha,
My comment was just to say that we shouldn’t consider that Saad has already cut a deal with the opposition. I was just trying to say that his father’s death places him in a situation where his interests are diametrically opposed to that of the opposition, that is if we are to believe that he intends to find his father’s killers and maybe avoid getting blown up in his turn.
Now as you said, he has done a poor job in everything he has done so far. But I think this was caused by the fact that the possibility of the renewal of civil war weighs heavily on every decision that Saad and all of M14 for that matter have to take. Come on, I don’t believe for a second that Hariri is not entirely convinced that HA poses a threat to Lebanon as a whole, or that he doesn’t recognize the true nature of Berri.

[ghassan karam]

Lest we forget. Sa'ad Hariri is not in a position to even be judged by his intentions. Even if one is willing to pretend that Sa'ad is a smart experienced politician we must always remember that the family fortune is essentially in Saudi Arabia, not exactly what you might call a transparent democratic society. And please remember also that "dying broke" is an excellent economic theory that won Modigliani a Nobel prize in economics but that this grand macro-scheme has no adherents in Lebanon. I am convinced that Saad will make a u-turn in a NY minute if the Saudi Monarch asks him too. ($16 billion is too much to loose for the Sa'ads of the world)

[Jeha]

Good points all,

On one hand, I agree with Traffic that "the possibility of the renewal of civil war weighs heavily on every decision". On the other hand, it is important to keep in mind that Lebanese saying that those who "run away from a fight end up in a worse fight".

In a sense, it retraces what Ghassan is saying; by focusing excessively on what they have, the Hariri's project the image of "having something to lose". This is not the case of Hezb; while they are betting everything on the table, they keep acting as if they have nothing to lose.

There are few constants in politics, one of them being that power perceived is power achieved.

[Traffic]

Well it's a shame that we are reduced to choosing between a fight and a worse fight. At best a lose-lose situation.
Just concerning "acting as if they have nothing to lose", I believe this is more than just an act. For some reason within HA followers the notion of "deprivation" is firmly ingrained. My notion of things is that they perceive that they are stuck between an eternal foe to the south, and an evil blood sucking pseudo state to the north that has perpetually deprived them of any rights. Within this state of mind, they might actually believe that their backs are to the wall.

[ghassan karam]

Abd AlKarim Abu Alnassr has written a detailed analysis regarding the Syrian?iranian?HA understanding when and if Iran is subjected to a military attack. His sources, that he claims are high level European Intel are confident that Syria will not respond to an attack on Iran in any way but will make sure that HA is supplied with all what is required to respond across the Lebanese border. There is nothing new in the above except the confirmation of what many have always expected.
But what I found simply fascinating about this column is that these same intels confirm that the summer provocation by HA was totally planned and that the time and place were ordered by the Syria. Enough of the obfuscation that HA did not know that its provocations will result in a war, as if that matters anyway, or that Israel was the aggressor. It is always helpful to find out the real strory of such major events since such information might put an end to the crazy speculations of who did what to whom and for what purpose.
Are we to believe this analysis by Mr. Alnassr? I , for one, am willing to accept his confirmation because it happens to coincide to my view of the world based on where I am standing. I urge the readers of this blog to read this article and decide on your own whether the conclusions sound credible and sensible. It sure is worth a read.

[fubar]

Hezbollah hearts Syria

(JPost) “If Israel dares to make an adventurous move against Syria, it will pay a heavy price," a member of Hizbulla's political council warned Thursday.

In an interview with the Nazareth-based Kul al-Arab newspaper scheduled to be published on Friday, Dr Ahmad Malli warned Israel against considering an attack on Syria, saying that the Lebanese organization would respond to such an offensive with full force.

"I believe that things have changed," Malli explained. "The times when everyone was afraid of the Israeli threats are over. The Zionist entity knows more than anyone that the price of such adventurousness would be heavy, and the Israelis know the price more than anyone.

"Since 2006 we have begun a new stage in the Arab-Israeli conflict and have demonstrated this during the Israeli aggression in July (the Second Lebanon War). If anyone wants to make an adventurous move, it will bare responsibility for this aggression."

Asked whether he was referring to aggression both against Lebanon and against Syria, Malli replied, "We are all in one Middle East."

Ahmad Jibril, secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, also warned Thursday that if Israel attacked Syria or Hizbullah his organization would also respond.

In an interview with the al-Hadat newspaper, which is published in Arabic in the Galilee city of Tamra, Jibril warned that Israel planned to invade Syria in coordination with Arab countries. The interview is scheduled to be published Friday.

According to Jibril, if such an attack takes place, Iran and Hizbullah will stand by Damascus and respond in full force.

"I believe that the Israelis and the Americans will carry out attacks against Syria as soon as possible, in other words in the near future. I do not reject the possibility that the Israeli aircraft will attack us the Palestinians in Syria.

"I also do not reject the possibility that they will attack the Palestinian headquarters in Damascus. We, the Palestinians in Syria, will not stand idly by. We will be at the front posts. I also believe that Hizbullah will take part in this war," he said.

Jibril added that Israel's plan was to isolate Syria from Iran and the rest of its allies, after identifying it as the weakest link.

"I stress that the plan to isolate Syria will not go by easily," he declared. "I am certain that this war will last for months and will open doors which have not been opened in the past."

**************

Hmmmm, so Hezbollah is calling Syria a liar. Syria is lying about the recent Israeli attack (munitions dropped in Syria). Yep, according to Hezbollah, it never happened because, surely, if it did, Hezbollah would have responded "to such an offensive with full force." HA!