Nahr El Bared: Victory or cover up?

Some Lebanese fired their Kalashnikovs and tapped into their permanent supply of fireworks to celebrate the victory in the north. Soldiers returned to thousands of jubilant citizens in much of the country, except where the army is replaced by a "resistance" strain. There was no shortage of rice and flowers. However, there was a shortage of common sense.

Yesterday, the images of the killed Fatah al-Islam leader Shaker al-Absi were on every news bulletin. My one year old son, who a few days earlier had waved to a soldier policing angry Sunnis and Shias in Beirut, found himself staring at a dead body on the screen. It was no Spongebob Squarepants episode, although many who gave victory speeches afterwards sounded like cartoon characters.

PM Siniora gave a prime time speech in an attempt to paint it as a political victory for his embattled cabinet. However, Army commander Michel Suleiman went ahead and dedicated the victory to his soldiers and to Hizbullah (aka resistance).  Today, Defense Minister Elias Murr gave a press conference to declare, for the second time, victory over the terrorists, and used the event to warn against spoiling the victory by forming a second government. And just when you thought the defense minister was going to use army power to kick out the occupiers of downtown Beirut, the army generals sharing the microphone opened their mouths to exonerate Syrian intelligence. Investigations with the members of Fatah al-Islam did not reveal links to Syrian intelligence, they said. On the contrary, said the head of military intelligence echoing the Syrian foreign minister's statement from the day before, the Syrian army helped the Lebanese army by providing ammunitions. Fatah al-Islam was al-Qaeda 100%, the army claimed, and its members entered the country through the borders, including the airport. Some entered legally, some illegally.

In other words, everybody wins. The government can go on pretending the army is under its command, carrying out its orders, and Hizbullah can rest assured the army crossed no "red lines" by pointing the finger at the sister.

Many questions remain unanswered.

One question is: why did it take so long? Days before Fatah al-Islam fighters decided to run to their brand of martyrdom, media reports claimed some in the army had facilitated the exit of Syrian intelligence officers who were running the battle. Don't ask me for verification. 

Another question: Do Fatah al-Islam fighters give different depositions to different security agencies in the countries, depending on what they want to hear? So it's Syrian intelligence to the ISF, and al-Qaeda to the army intelligence?

And how does an organization like Fatah al-Islam keep an entire army busy, plan targets all over the country, and contemplate killing the Maronite patriarch after extensive monitoring without an intelligence infrastructure of some sort? Can any transplant from Yemen rent a car and drive to the patriarch's residence and record his habits without getting caught or at least receiving support?

The Nahr El Bared affair stinks. Sadly, the truth may have become inconvenient for everyone.  At least until another camp blows up in the faces of those cheering and being cheered for.

Meanwhile, my wife and I will be searched by the army every time we dare enter the unoccupied part of downtown Beirut. The ISF will pull us over on the way from the hospital, and stare at our sick baby and his unfamiliar car seat, and wonder out loud why the baby has a passport. All that while black SUVs are zooming by unsuspected, criminals getting away with murder, and Hizbullah freely maintaining an occupation not far from where we stand.

"You should be thankful we're doing our job," said the ISF and army officers.

Good job.

Comments

[Mustapha]

One very brave journalist suddenly asked the head of the intelligence chief: "If Syria really did help, why did you not thank it publicly like you did with the other Arab countries".

His muffled response was all the answer we needed.

[ghassan karam]

My sincerest apologies to all the readers but ina sense I feel that this poat calla for a remark that I made in reference to the previous one.
Even if one is to accept the Naher El Bared as an outright victory for the LAF we , the people, should hold off on our celebrations since this camp represents only one island in a large archipelago of illegal mini statesthat exist with the direct complicity of many of those that are claiming victory in Naher El Bared whether they be PM Saniora , General Suleiman or the pro Syrian groups. I will uncork the bubbly when downtown Beirut, the Dahieh, Jezzine , Ain El Helwieh ... are liberated. Ironically all what has happened in the last thiry seven years is the replacement of Fatahland by HAstan with a short period in between of an outright Israeli occupation. The Lebanese government has not been able to have its control over this small country for a single day out of the last 37 years more than half of the time that modern Lebanon came into existence. This totally unacceptable outcome took place because the structure of the current society and government facilitated it. If we are to seek a different , a more democratic and a more responsible form of society then we have no choice but to uproot the system that is currently in existence and replace it with a new one. No better way to start than to get rid of the rotten unstable foundations. Can we agree that sectarianism does not work, it is the root of the problem, it is the virus gnawing at the fiber of society and that it is the cancer that must be exorcised. Can we consider seriously a non Maronite for president? I hope that the Lebanese will stop living under the illusion that we have a presidential system in Lebanon because we do not. Maybe, just maybe, if we can at least consider the possibility of electing a person to the presidency based on his/her belief in Lebanon then we will find out that this act does not necessarily disenfranchise the Maronites as much as it actualizes Lebanon and thus it will be followed by nominating say an Armenian for PM or a Greek Orthodox for speaker and so on. When would we learn that the personal God that pols pray for is not as important as their strong commitment to liberty, freedom, social justice, human rights and independence.

[fubar]

"The Nahr El Bared affair stinks."

Ya think?

Ohhh...who lives in a pineapple under the sea...

Thanks for the earworm. NOT!

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

Of course YOU AND I can agree on all that. But tell it to the countless idiots in Lebanon. And I'm not referring to the ruling class here, but also to the people who are so easily distracted from the greater picture.

It has been so easy to distract them with empty rhetoric. "Islamizing Lebanon", "Zionist conspiracy to steal our waters", "Settling the Palestinians", and so on. It's as if the people are a group of 2 year old kids, easily distracted by a shiny object, time after time, going from one shiny bauble to the next, year after year, with the attention span and long term vision of an A.D.D. case.

I had commented earlier on Josey's blog ((link here) about Michel Aoun's latest rhetoric, and how childish he sounds, and I continue to marvel that grown men and women, in Lebanon (and abroad) still follow this guy.

It is seriously hard to take the Lebanese people seriously anymore. So my apologies to Cris (and others who feel like him/her) but I'm past blaming the leaders, the foreign powers, etc...We, the Lebanese people, are so beyond retarded anymore that we are fully deserving of exactly what we're getting.

[Solomon2]

the army generals sharing the microphone opened their mouths to exonerate Syrian intelligence. Investigations with the members of Fatah al-Islam did not reveal links to Syrian intelligence, they said. On the contrary, said the head of military intelligence

Wait a moment. How many generals were there, and how many of these specifically exonerated Syria?

[fubar]

(JPost) "After meeting with Italian Premier Romano Prodi, Siniora also appealed for international help to rebuild the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared, which was destroyed during the three-month standoff with Fatah Islam that forced the camp's more than 30,000 refugees to flee."

Whatever happened to "you break it, you fix it"?

Isn't the world already underwriting the entire country of Lebanon? How about letting the Hezbots in the south go another couple of years without homes while Nahr el Bared is rebuilt. Make Iran pick up the entire cost and responsibility of rebuilding Hezbot homes. It's the least Iran can do. Not to mention the fact that sucking money out of Iran is the least that Lebanon can do for the GWOT.

[ali bm]

ghassan, i was in jezzine the whole of last week and it doesn't need liberation except from vendors who treat everyone as tourists and charge them accordingly. so get ur facts straight. as for the other areas, i always visit dahyeh and the south and i have never ever seen anything out of the ordinary.

as for AK, where do u keep getting these tidbits? al seyasah or al mustaqbal or where? u used to use "with a grain of salt" when referring to these highly unbiased and reliable sources and others, so why have u stopped doing so?

but now, since we are rumour mongering around, al arabiyaa posted the other day two recordings, one video of the killing of the lebanese military officcial in Fatah Al-Islam Chehab Al-Qaddoura in Abi Samra where he is shown to have been shot once and then when he was lying there, clearly still alive, he was shot again by the internal security forces and killed from close range. the other recording was audio of a phone call between al-qaddoura and the salafi chief in lebanon Al-Shahhal in which al-qaddoura was saying that they didn't wan't things to escalate and all they want is their money in the form of a 125,000 $ transfer as was promised earlier. interesting, no?

[ghassan karam]

ALI Bm,
You must be the only independent observer that does not think that HAstan exists. Are you serious in claiming that the Lebanese government has control over the whole country? If it does then what seems to be the problem? Obviously no one thinks that it does except those that have decided to live in denial. Please let us know , objectively, who is the real power broker, in Dahieh and in Jezzine just to name some areas? Does one require the permission of HA if one wishes to tour , take pictures and ask questions? Is the ISF able to enforce the law or is that the preserve of the "Shebab"? Who is it that decides that an area is declared military and thus closed to all who do not have the blessings of HA? And just out of curiosity how many of the residents pay their fair share of utility bills , property taxes,VAT or bother to apply for permits needed for a multitude of things?

[Don Cox]

The question is, who provided the money for Fatah al-Islam? They had heaps of ammunition, food stores, electrical gear for making booby traps. That stuff doesn't come free.

This battle acted as a good test of the Lebanese Army, which came out as willing but weak, undertrained and grossly under-equipped. If Hezb'allah decided on a conquest of the whole of Lebanon, the Army could not stand up against them for a day, especially if there were Syrian and Iranian special forces fighting against them.

So I wonder if the whole thing was set up as a test of the Army.

[ali bm]

GK, obviously u haven't been to jezzine in some time. i hope that the crap about shi'i financiers buying lands to establish hezbollah bases there is not the foundation on which u build ur statements as all there is to it is that businessman from Jouaya is setting up residences and selling out shops and houses to all buyers in an attempt to make a dime. believe me if u tour the whole of jezzine, armed with a camera or whatnot, or even a rifle for hunting [though it is illegal there] no one can care less. 90% of my village [which is half maronite and half shi'is] go hunting every weekend and so far not one of them has come across a hezbollah hideout or base.
as for dahyeh, u have a point there about people with cameras being harassed by the shabeb and this is unjustifiable but as for the security forces, they have patrols in there and they regulate traffic as they do elsewhere. in my defence, i would suggest that u try taking a camera and going to mukhtara or quraytim or wherver geagea is at these days and seeing what the shabeb over there have to say though again this doesn't excuse the hezb brand of shabeb.
some of my relatives live in daheyh and haret hreik and pay out their bills regularly and i don't know anyone who isn't paying his or her bills and i don't understand how electrecite de liban or the water company would still provide them with services if they didn't pay their dues.
the problems u talked about are not specific to hezb but common to all our "zu'ama" and their feudal mentalities. so we need to address them on a national level.
as for don cox's question, i would advise him to look at saudi arabia's petrodollars and the funding that goes to all salafi groups throughout the world and to keep in mind the allegations levelled at hariri inc of funding some of these groups in lebanon.

[Jeha]

As long as we can keep asking questions, we can hope to hear the truth someday.

[Bad Vilbel]

Let me throw out something a bit politically-incorrect here for you folks.

By all accounts, the North of the country (mainly Akkar and Tripoli) has strongly backed the army and has shown to be very much behind their national armed forces. And that is no surprise, considering a large chunk of the Army, and more specifically the units involved in the Nahr Al Bared action were from the North.

This made me wonder, had a similar incident occured in the South, say Ain El Hilweh. Would the population of the South have gotten behind their Armed forces to the same degree? Or would we have seen a lot more second guessing, or outright loyalty to other factions (you all know who i mean). I can't help but wonder if the same folks who insist on brandishing their own flags, and plastering the area with posters of foreign Ayatollahs would've backed the Lebanese Army as much as the folks waving Lebanese flags and Army posters in Tripoli lately...

Food for thought.

[Jeha]

BV,

It is not a clear-cut issue; I fear this government is as sectarian as the opposition. Had a similar event occurred anywhere else than Baddawi, chances are it would have taken a sectarian aspect.

We may talk about nationalism and secularism here, but the "men on the ground" are reading from a different page.

[UK]

Ali bm--

How do you feel about Hizbullah and their goons blocking ordinary citizens from entering occupied downtown Beirut and taking cameras from journalists there? Do you have a problem with that? I bet not.

[Bad Vilbel]

Jeha,

I agree. I don't think that was really my point though.
Had the government attempted to send the Army to take on Fath Al Islam (or a similar group) in Ain El Hilweh, say (after said group had massacred a bunch of troops, or similar incident), I simply do not see the local populace in the South embracing such a move and cheering for the Army the way the folks in the North did.
They'd be going on about the "Resistance" this and "Red line" that and my guess is at least some would be looking to protect their "brothers in arms" or whatever.

Don't you think?

[Hazbani]

Sorry to be late but even us retired people try to work if we can, in Israel that is.

All this bad talk about the Leb. army is sad. Please notice that the Leb. army is the least equipped, least armed compared to any army in the ME. It fought from house to house street fighters that were trained to fight the USA, UK and IDF, they were equiped & armed accordingly. Hizb. was better trained and much much better armed than the Lebanese army. The results are known. No clear victory to any side in South Leb. Clear end in the north. All of you know these facts, nothing new. It shows that people who are fighting for their home, close to home (four five casualties from several small Leb. villages) tend to fight well. This is also like 2+2=4. But while talking too much people forget simple things.

Another thing, every body in the service of the Hizb. was bad mouthing the Leb. army for not fighting Israel in the last war. Well, talking about conspiracy theories, assuming, just assuming, that the whole Leb. army would have jumped on Israel and assuming just assuming that Israel would have damged it badly, who whould have fought in Nahar il Barid ? Can it be, just thinking, that before these two soldiers were captured some people who were planning this operation, on the political, strategic level were pondering this idea? Can it be that some body hoped to hit two birds with one stone ? or at least injured both of them badly ? Some thing to think about.

Another observation, Persia offered Lebanon AA systems. Please people stay away from such things. You see every military observer in the ME will be following these constantly (even your friend Turky !!). Ever asked what the best German electronic spy ship is doing out there, it is German !! not ME, Israel included, every shade of an electronic pip is obtained and perfectly recorded and analysed all orders are executed exactly. In a war, first thing first when the time will come and I (please do belive me on that) wish it will never come, these AA things will be hit by every thing under the sun and then more. As the world goes even ground to ground missiles or sea to ground missiles can get these AA once they flick the first switch. Israel is preparing for electronic war against the best that Russia and/or USA sell in the ME. Nobody but nobody is going to sell the Persians the latest electronic goods and the Persians are not going to place in Lebanon the best things they have, so here you are. If Hizb. want these toys put them under Nasralla house, or beside it. You good people stay away from such things.

In a week we the Jews are celebrating New Year. I will be praying G-d for peace for me, my people and the whole ME, realy, because things do not look good at all, they realy are rather bad.

[Jeha]

BV:

I am afraid I have to agree, though I fear you are being optimistic.

Hazbani,

We're not bad mouthing our army, only noting how political interference is damaging it, and wasting the sacrifices of fine men.

[fubar]

Make up whatever conspiracy theory you want about Nahr el Bared and who financed, armed, and directed Fatah al Islam but, at the end of the day, despite the losses, Nahr el Bared was a good test run for the LAF. Equipment has been pouring in to them, procurement processes sped up, and the LAF no longer has a wish list but instead a realistic need list. Nahr el Bared has been an eye opening, hard won, learning experience for the LAF.

Now if the LAF can just stay together...

BV - there is a reason why the north lost so many men at Nahr el Bared - they were primarily the ones fighting there, intentionally. Hazbani is right about fighting for your own home (or region). But do not believe for a minute that the north makes up the Army. There are many Shia in the Army.

Hazbani - "Nobody but nobody is going to sell the Persians the latest electronic goods and the Persians are not going to place in Lebanon the best things they have, so here you are."

Don't count the Russians out, they are often willing to sell their souls to the devil. Russia is not a friend of the US or Israel.

(Der Spiegel) German technology has made it into an Iranian nuclear power plant despite an export ban. Prosecutors are investigating the case and the German Foreign Ministry is concerned about the damage to Germany's credibility.
. . .
The case's true political explosiveness lies in the structure of the business relationships it involved. The Potsdam prosecutors now believe that they can prove that Dmitry S. and his now-liquidated Berlin company, Vero Handels GmbH, were involved in the acquisition of illegal material from Germany on behalf of the partially state-controlled Russian nuclear company Atomstroiexport (ASE) -- material intended for export to Iran. "It looks as if Putin's nuclear firm deliberately violated German law," says one investigator.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,503865,00.html

[Jeha]

Fubar,

not quite; the North may make up about 40% of the LAF, which goes to show its higher proportion among the dead.

And not all the men in the army are from "local" units, and crack troops are "integrated", with men from all communities. In those units, the death toll shows some kind of sampling bias.

However, it seems there are clear separation of some functions, and Hezb infiltrates some units, as demonstrated with their use of the Army's radar systems during the war, a fact outlined by now dead Minister Pierre Gemayel. Another worrying fact was the absence of logistics early on, which was partly compensated by many private citizens who volunteered their private stashes.

Still, the new chief of staff has made a lot of changes, and his role may have been instrumental in the victory.

[fubar]

Jeha,

"and Hezb infiltrates some units, as demonstrated with their use of the Army's radar systems during the war, a fact outlined by now dead Minister Pierre Gemayel"

Pierre Gemayel. It will be years before the truth comes out, if ever, but I strongly believe that Pierre Gemayel's murder was different than the rest. I will not go into the analysis on a public forum such as this, but mark my words, and years from now, see if I am not right.

As for the logistics at first, even the IDF had some logistical problems during the summer war and they were fighting on their doorstep. That's why they call them surprise attacks - they catch you off guard and it takes time to get your act together. It's not like anybody gamed Nahr el Bared for 6 months before it happened. But if the LAF was smart, it would start using its helicopters now to map those other camps and places of interest. Proper prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

Also, don't believe everything you read or hear about what was or was not supplied to the LAF. Those manifests have not been made public.

[Jeha]

Fubar,

Agreed, essentially. But a clarification; by logistics I was pointing out to a probable integration between the LAF and Hezb, some of it at the "procurement" level, a feature we inherited from the Syrians.

I am not sure the current mis-government has been able to reverse some of Syria's policies; they have not acted on any of the treaties and agreements between the two countries, even the most egregious ones...

[ghassan karam]

Is it too early to take a stab at who is likely to be the next president of Lebanon? Probably, but this will not stop me (LOL) from saying that it looks more likely , at least to this observer, that the Justice Minister Charles Rizk, is starting to separate himself from the field of the other candidates. Will he win by a whisker or would it be an impressive win by a few lengths? I am basing this conclusion on the simple logic of elimination. I do not see who else could satisfy both sides and I believe that the next president must be acceptable to both blocs. Any thoughts?

[fubar]

Ghassan,

Well, it is a bit early given that the Pope has not whispered sweet nothings into Sfeir's ear yet, but since you are in such a rush, let the betting begin. As usual, I will cover the action and unless Charlie agrees to do the math we are not giving odds.

Jeha,

Jeha,

"by logistics I was pointing out to a probable integration between the LAF and Hezb, some of it at the "procurement" level"

You think I am joking everytime I say and "you know the rules, none for Nas"? = )

[Jeha]

Fubar,

No, I do not think you're joking; I tend to agree with your views on things, as I am sure you speak of experience... I just hope our experiences did not make so cynical about human nature.

Ghassan; my money is still on Rizk as well; I am not sure Herr Ratzinger will whisper as much as tighten up the Cardinal's spine a little. I hope it will be enough for him to understand that the time of compromises is gone. It may be time for a Shehabi candidate, even one who is too close to Johnny Abdo...

[Bad Vilbel]

Fubar,

My point about the make up of the Army is somewhere between what you said and what Jeha said.

True, the Northerners in the Army were fighting for their homes. But they also exhibited a sense of loyalty to LEBANON, the state. And I'm not JUST talking about the army units, but also the populace.

Let's say a similar event happened in the South. Do you think the Southern units (putting aside the integration question right now) who would be made up of Southerners (let's assume) would be as eager to "fight for their homes"? Or do you think they'd first wait for an ok from Hezbollah before engaging in any fighting? And if said "ok" was not forthcoming, do you think they'd still follow the orders of the central government to, say storm Ain El Hilweh, if Nas was opposed to it? Or would we see desertions, or at the very least a much more "tentative" approach to such an assault?

My money is on the latter. I don't believe for a second that the Shia (and forgive me for generalizing here, I know there are anti-Hezb shia, but i'm talking about the Shia as a group here) would take on Ain El Hilweh if the central government asked them to, as long as Nas opposes it.

That is my point.

[fubar]

BV,

Unfortunately, I think you are right. If Nas is adamantly opposed and it is on Nas' turf, the majority of the Shia in the LAF will not engage. Some due to loyalty to Nas, some due to peer pressure, and some due to a fear of retribution. It would take a strong man to go against Nas on Nas' turf if that man has family living on Nas' turf.

Ghassan & Jeha,

I am not being coy by not giving my Presidential pick. Truth is, I am still trying to figure out who is who. You know me, late to the game. Any pick I gave now would not be mine but would simply be my pick from what I have heard from others so I am going to wait awhile, perhaps even until I can actually make an intelligent prediction. = )

[Tony]

Ghassan & Jeha,

For what it is worth I believe that Charles Rizk is the man for the job. He seems to play the politics very well and to deliver on the International tribunal is a big plus......let's see how it all pans out.

[naja]

I personally would go for Rizk any day. For one thing it would be nice to see a shift from brawns to brains, from uniform to university education. Rizk also has the honour of being the one politician who switched sides out of honest conviction: a lifelong friend of Emile Lahoud - and indeed, as such, the president's choice for the Justice portfolio - he perceptibly changed sides gradually as the Mehlis's investigation unfolded. His integrity is such that no-one could suggest that his stance was in return for services or cash. Instead he has become the repository of pure, unadulterated venom of the most vicious kind from the Baabda Tanning Saloon - which frankly is something worth sticking on one's CV under "achievements". Sadly, that same stance is what effectively prevents him from being a realistic candidate: his assiduous work for the Tribunal means Syria would veto him out of hand.

[ghassan karam]

As many have already guessed , it is not beyond me to have an ulterior motive LOL. When I mention the likely hood that Mr. Rizk might be the next president of Lebanon I am attempting to demonstrate again the strong desirability of having the next Lebanese president to be from an unallied camp. It is clear that the next president cannot be from the HA camp but I don't think that he must be a person who is strongly associated with March 14 either. Charles Rizk is smart, independent, his belief in Lebanon is beyond reproach and yet can potentially be accepted by both parties. If the election of Charles Rizk or another personage of his caliber is followed by the formation of a cabinet composed of new fresh faces and eventually the election of a new leadership to the Chamber then Lebanon might finally embark on a real journey of transformation to a modern state.

Hazbani,
I share your concern regarding the AA systems that Iran might have already supplied to HA. These systems can provide a false sense of security when in reality these systems can be taken down without a catastrophic cost by the opponents.Witness how ineffective all these systems turned out to be in Iraq.There is only one effective system to prevent casaulties of any sort, just do not start a war and definitely respect the international border of your neighbours.

[Bad Vilbel]

Fubar says:

I am going to wait awhile, perhaps even until I can actually make an intelligent prediction. = )

There is your first mistake! "intelligent predictions" and Lebanese politics do not go very well together ;)

I don't have a pick, because, honestly, I feel too removed from Lebanon to know much about these various candidates that are in the middle (the Harbs and Nassib Lahouds and Rizks).
I do know that Aoun never had a chance and still doesn't. I know that the next president will NOT be a pro-Syrian. And I seriously doubt that Suleiman will get the job, although he IS the guy Syria wants in there (Aoun was just bait and switch all along).

I do find it interesting that after a month of Suleiman talk, the commenters on this blog suddenly seem to favor Rizk (who was barely mentioned a month ago by anyone). I haven't seen him mentioned in the news or saying anything. What prompted you guys to resurface his name?

[naja]

BV, my comment on Rizk was only in response to entries that mentioned his name (As for Suleiman, if he gets the job, I'll emigrate :)).

Rizk has been in the news a little more than usual, in fact. Indeed, he's been more vocal than usual which, at this time, could suggest a discreet push on his part. For whatever it's worth, I heard in Beirut of him being a contender no less than some 3-4 months ago and I welcomed that. Listening to him being interviewed recently only reinforced my view that this is an articulate, strong-willed, highly intelligent, liberal politician with a firm knowledge and belief in the Law (something which, I am sure, endears him to Ghassan. Right, GK?)

[Bad Vilbel]

And to me! GK and I have been harping about this "law" thingie for months. :)

Good to hear. I wasn't criticizing Rizk, btw, i was merely curious as to why the sudden "resurgence" or if anything had happened that I missed.

Of all the current names mentioned, I can see how he could have the most appeal (although I honestly don't know much about him on a day to day business level, since I don't live in Lebanon).

[joseyWales]

Naja,

this [Rizk] is an articulate, strong-willed, highly intelligent, liberal politician with a firm knowledge and belief in the Law...

From what I hear, all very true except perhaps for the last one, liberal politician. Also not sure what you mean by that. Rizk also is extremely ambitious.

Certainly sophisticated, polished and cultured way beyond the other clowns. You may not agree with him on things but he won't embarrass the nation or make you cringe by exposing bad temper, vulgar language or nonsensical ideas. (Small but important things)

With the little we know, would he be a good president? Dunno, but intelligent is a good place to start.

And he's a long term SURVIVOR in gvmnt from Chehab to today, and that cuts two ways: tremendous political skills OR no principles (???)

[naja]

Good point(s!) JW. I hope I didn't come across as being the president of the Charles Rizk Appreciation Society.

For the "liberal" label, I'm using the general definition, not the one so loaded with left-wing connotations in US politics.

Having said this, and considering my belief that he is unlikely to be electable (interesting word, this), shall we steer this thread to other possible candidates? Go on, guys, stick your necks out (and, AK, sorry for abusing your hospitality in the comments section).

[Bad Vilbel]

He was in government under Chehab? I didn't know that.
Can someone give me a quick rundown of his career?
First time I ever heard of this guy was when he surfaced as Lahoud's good friend and then Minister of Justice.

[Bad Vilbel]

Why do you consider him unelectable, naja? (Whereas Ghassan seems to think he's in the lead right now).

[Jeha]

I do not think Charles Rizk was not in government form Shehab's time, but he sure is close to Johnny Abdo, the youngest chief of second bureau ever.

Aside from the obvious fact that Abdo is still involved in Lebanese politics, a few facts are salient about Rizk;

- His own origins are hazy as well; his own brother's last name spells "Rozek".

- During the Sarkis days, him and Abdo pushed the careers of a few army guys. So, while Lahoud can claim that he has brought Rizk in this government, Rizk may have more than a passing role in dear Emile being where he is...

- At the time when a few ministers were camping in the Serail, Rizk was quietly staying at his home.

As Tony stated, he is playing "the politics very well", on the international stage where it unfortunately really matters. The key is in knowing what the foreign powers really want, and how much they really want to push the tribunal. Though it is over-hyped, the tribunal is the only really leverage we have against such powerful foes as Syria and Iran.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ok, so I googled Charles Rizk, and found some Wikipedia entry about him being an "aid" to Fuad Shehab. But not much more.

To go off on a bit of a tangent...I also found this link to a LF forum where Charles Rizk's candidacy was being discussed.
It's an entertaining read.

Click Here

It didn't take long before someone brought up Aoun as "an excellent choice". And it was beyond amazing to me to see how clueless the populace at large seems to be. The level of discourse and the arguments made are so infantile, and sectarian in most of that thread ("We Christians" this and that, "the president has to represent the Christian community", etc.). It took 28 posts (scroll to page 2 to get to the post in question) before someone finally posted the following:

We don't need a man with the street support, because he is not going to fight any body or oppose anybody.

What we need is a man who believes in:

* Institutions
* Constitution
* Rules & Regulations,
* Strong personality, And above all,
* believes in a free, sovereign, independent & eternal Lebanon.

This "president" should/will be supported by the constitution and the official law enforcement, not by his own milicia/people.

If we continue looking for a "strong/popular" president, we will end up creating another party called: the "president's party".

We have to leave the mentality of: "beik, za3im, ka2id, m3allim, Sayid, Sheikh........" and start thinking as citizens, citizens and citizens.

We have a LOOOOONG way to go before we deserve a democratic country of our own...*sigh*

[ghassan karam]

BV,
Let me make clear that my sole intention in bringing up the electability of Charles Rizk is to suggest one more time my view that the Lebanese presidential elections are not the intractable problem that many are making them out to be. I have maintained for a while that the solution has been starring us in the face for a while and I do not see any other way out. The next president cannot belong to any of the two major political groups but will have to be a known quantity that is guided by the idea of Lebanese sovereignty. I think that if the constitution is to be amended then Mr. Salameh will most likely be the front runner and not Suleiman. But I think that will not happen and as a result the chances of Charles Rizk improve substantially if for no other reason but the fact that both sides know what they are getting , more or less, and so they will not risk accepting a total neophyte such as Mr. Kattar. I think that we are locked into the inevitability of choosing a president that is "independent" and Mr. Rizk fits the bill. He is smart. well educated, has the CV and is very arrogant. His age should be an issue but given that he is the most likely person to untie this Gordian Knot I have no problems in accepting him. Did he really serve Fouad Chehab at the age of 25? I doubt that.

[Bad Vilbel]

GK, I heard you loud and clear. I understand what you're saying about needing a candidate that's not associated with either group. I just went off on a bit of a tangent.

Indications are that Rizk did indeed serve as an aid to Shehab (that's all the details I've found so far).

[Bad Vilbel]

In case you guys haven't read it yet, please go take a look at Chibli Mallat's latest op-ed in the Daily Star:

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=85049

I am not exactly sure WHO Mr. Mallat is, but he just earned my respect and my support for the Presidency. He's probably the FIRST of the current candidates, to my knowledge, to actually speak about laws, constitutions, democracy, and all these little things we here have been harping about for so long. He gets it.

[ghassan karam]

BV,
Chibli Malat is one of the most qualified people if your metric is youth and yet intellectual ability. He has served as a visiting professor at Yale, has a very impressive CV as a lawyer and has been trying to break this stranglehold that traditional pols hold on the presidency in Lebanon. I have not visited his web site for a while but he used to have a web site in which he promotes his candidacy for the presidency in Lebanon.
In a state of bliss or one close to it I would rather consider a non maronite candidate. But we know that this is still premature in Lebanon. Among the Maronite candidates that have either declared or are in a way considered I would throw my personal support to Mr. Mallat because i believe that he can at least match the intellectual capabilities of Charles Rizk, is just as much of a believer in modernity and yet is younger. Age at some point will start to matter, Charles Rizk will be close to 80 at the end of his presidency should he be elected. Yet if I am to look at Lebanon as it is and not as I would like it to be it would appear that Mr. Mallat , as a total outsider and as a person whose CV is free of any major political accomplishments, will not be taken seriously at this phase of Lebanese politics. I hope that I am wrong.

[Bad Vilbel]

Of course he won't be taken seriously. This is neither here nor there. I don't know if you read the op-ed i linked to above, but Mr. Mallat just impressed the hell out of me with that one piece.
I then looked at his website and does indeed have a very impressive CV.

You're right, just like most candidates (even in the US) who seem to be a cut above the rest intellectually, he won't be taken seriously as an outsider by the "establishment". It is a shame.

And you are right about the age issue. Rizk may be a fine candidate by our current standards, but I'd personally like to see the new crop of leaders of tomorrow ASAP. The new blood you've often clamored about. Mr. Mallat fits that bill to a tee. The rest of the bozos running are all from the old school, as far as I know. Unfortunately, we're pretty likely to end up with one of them whether we like it or not.

[Solomon2]

I am attempting to demonstrate again the strong desirability of having the next Lebanese president to be from an unallied camp.

Don't you think it's more important to have a president whose family is protected enough so that he can't be blackmailed? This whole push of Berri's stinks of an Syro-Iranian effort to twist the LA's recent victory into a Lebanese defeat, tricking you to pick the wrong candidate, a man who will eventually rob you of hope...

I just got back from the AEI sessions on Iraq. Did you know the U.S. has taken some Hezbollah prisoner there? Al-Qaida in Iraq is nearly dead, the Sunnis are joining the security forces, Sadr commanded a cease-fire, and Sunni-Shia progress will be seen within days, not weeks. Once the Sunnis realized the U.S. surge could protect them, the whole Awakening process accelerated, now reaching even into Shia areas. It may take me a couple of days before I can post this stuff in detail at my blog. So long for now!

[naja]

BV, sorry for the late reply to "Why do you consider him unelectable" - blame it on the timezones factor (you guys sometimes really keep me up late). Rizk is unelectable simply because of his sterling work on the International Tribunal. Syria will veto him like mad. HA won't be too keen either, come to think of it. After all, he was brought in by the Tanned One to kill off the tribunal. He didn't stick to the brief - which earns him my respect.

Interesting that Mallat has made a late foray. Now this is someone I rate very highly. In fact, the Financial Times, no less, suggested that Lebanon could do worse than elect him for the top seat. Personally however, I think he is a bit too much of an academic for the top saddle.

[ghassan karam]

Solomon2,
My personal position vis a vis the presidential elections in Lebanon is not predicated on the Beri "offer". I have had this same position for a while because I do not find any of the candidates that are strongly associated with March 14 appealing. Please also note that I also reject categorically General Aoun and General Suleiman.
As for your optimistic view based on the AEI conference regarding the situation in Iraq I would simply say that it is too premature for such a rosy assessment. The Sunnis have not yet come to terms with the new reality that they are no longer in the drivers seat and the Shia are so intoxicated with power that they are not willing to share much. We have seen this film before in Lebanon where many Maronites are still in denial.

[fubar]

(AP) WASHINGTON - Iran must pay $2.65 billion to the families of the 241 U.S. service members killed in the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, a federal judge declared Friday in a ruling that left survivors and families shedding tears of joy.

******

Just add that to the $254 million judgment issued against Iran in December 2006 for the Khobar Towers bombing.

[Bad Vilbel]

Good luck collecting any of that...

[Lover]

http://desouzasdailydigest.blogspot.com/

very nice site, please comment to get it working a bit.