King Berri and the stinky onion

Hail King Berri, for he holds the key to parliament, declares governments illegal and picks presidents. Or so he wants you to believe. The mailbox spends his speeches and interviews praising himself and his "initiatives", accusing the executive authority of seeking to control the country, and gets away with it because he is the one and only.

Fifteen days after he "sacrificed" the demand for a national unity government, he proposed to pick the president, telling deputies that he alone can call them into session, and he alone can decide how many are required for a quorum, and he alone can pull a Lebanese solution. Bashar's mailbox, you see, is full of it.

As the most ranking Shia in the country, one that is still in a legal (though paralysed) institution, he still manages to command the respect of those desperate for light at the end of the Lebanese tunnel. Nobody can afford to ignore him. People find themselves looking for gold in the hay he spits out in the form of "intiatives" and "consultations" to allegedly save the country from itself, as opposed to saving it from his foreign allies. His latest initiative soared in popularity for the simple fact that it was the only window open in a house he boarded shut. The French and the Saudis rejoiced, and so did 71% of the Lebanese populace according to Berri's own survey, forcing March 14 to respond by half accepting, and half reminding him of the non-negotiable: UN resolutions and independence from Syria.

The "stinky onion" Berri smelled today in March 14's late response is their shy determination to go ahead with nominating a president for the new republic of Lebanon. His name could be Nassib Lahoud, judging from the attendance of his candidacy annoucement today. Berri and his allies saw the shy but sly March 14 tip-toeing to what is rightfully theirs: the presidency. They may limp and occasionally fall on their backs, but there is no turning back, and Berri knows it. This country will either be reborn, or die.

Only the French and the Saudis still hope for a miracle in Nejmeh square. This blogger wishes he could share their delusion, but it does seem as if the plan for a second government is underway. Aoun today warned that Hizbullah could resort to using force if it felt threatened, and yesterday predicted that the strongest on the ground will take over power when the constitution collapses. The poor thing still believes he will be made president of Lebanon, or Lebanon 2. He did not see in Berri's offer to find a president a blow to his candidacy, as he perhaps read it as a hopeless and insincere last minute gesture to justify a inevitable coup (or coup attempt).

According to Berri, the great evil is coming in the form of a second cabinet, two general security agencies, two different internal security forces and divided ministries. Luckily, he said the army would stay united because it "paid the blood tax". Ignoring that March 14 has been paying that same tax since 2004, he said Emile Lahoud has six options to consider, one of them being a second government, another could be a self-extension of his term, and the others unknown.

Praise be to Berri, for he has delivered. The critics may find a good performance, but the audience is bored.

Now on with the rest of the show. Are we running with Nassib Lahoud?

Update. See Tony's take on Berri's interview.

But Berri made even more ominous statements, confirming every fear we've expressed about the "opposition's" intentions. Berri said that the new president (which, of course, is the one they impose -- after all, this is the purpose of his "initiative"), will bring with him his share of ministers in the new cabinet that would be formed after the election. Furthermore, Berri informed us, this cabinet (in which they would have veto power and maybe more) would proceed to review every decision made by the Seniora cabinet. And, echoing the recent statements by Hezbollah, Berri specified that one UNSC resolution in particular would be immediately trashed and that is UNSCR 1559.

This obsession with reviewing all the Seniora cabinet's decisions, and the fixation with 1559, just shows how Berri is totally susceptible to Syrian pressure.

Berri, in fact, was particularly concerned to the point of obsession with 1559 which calls for the disarmament of Hizbullah and the election of a president. He lashed out at "pro-Israeli" UN Middle East envoy Terje Roed-Larsen for saying a president could be elected by a simple majority, and most importantly, should implement UNSC resolution 1559.

Comments

[Maher]

Nabih Berri's initiative is our last chance to avoid civil war.

It's time for the majority to wake up, acknowledge the necessity of a 2/3 quorum, and accept a compromise candidate like Charles Rizk or Jean Obeid.

Even during the Israeli invasion of 1982, (when MP's were picked up in their beds and threatened by LF thugs to go and vote for the mass murderer Bachir),even then, everybody acknowledged the need for a two-third quorum.

[fubar]

For what it is worth...

On BJ's Presidential Poll, Nassib Lahoud won the most votes and achieved 31.7 percent out of 240 total votes. Now that might suggest he was the man in Lebanon. But curiously, only 7 votes were cast from Lebanon and of those it was:

4 for Aoun
1 for Butros Harb
1 for Michel Sulieman
1 for None of the above

0 for Nassib Lahoud

So, lol, Nassib Lahoud won using entirely the expat vote.

Is Nassib Lahoud the man? Well, perhaps of the silent majority in Lebanon...

[Shunkleash]

OK so now we know that the "initiative" was a red herring or worse yet a rotten apple. Now that M14 have shown a willingness to do the "bend over" dance Berri has chnaged the recipe for HIS "initiative" soup to ensure we all get the smell, a "consensus" president still means a "unity government". Nice taqqiyah there Nabhi! The next question however is do the losers in M14 see it for what it is or are they still playing footsie with Amin? My bet is that by now SAAAAAAAD has lost his socks and weeping willow is biding his time until he can get the hell out of Dodge in one piece...lets wait and see:-)

On another point its a shame but all this diplomatic flurry and hand holding just gives me the impression that just about every country in the world is treating lebanon as if its a baby in diapers...its bloody sickening. The more of these vultures land, the less willing the politicians are to act. Its as if a parent has come into a room with two squabling girls...MOM! Lucy hit me!!

AND STILL on another point, will someone please tell the old man of the mountain to shut his pie hole! DAMNIT! when we need his opinion we will ask for it...!

Ayesh Lubnan

[e]

March 14 and HA are playing a vicious game of chicken. Each is telling the other it better move out of the way or Lebanon will disintegrate. I think the following is true: HA will blink first because Asad will blink first. The reason Asad will blink is because for the first time Israel has made it clear that it is willing to risk war with Syria over Lebanon. Last week's raid proved it. Iran made the mistake of promising to help Syria against Israeli/US aggression and now it is a strategic Israeli interest to create a confrontation with Iran through Syria and if Iran refuses to tango, show Iran as a paper tiger.

So March 14 just need a little more courage. Let's hope they can muster it. For a brief moment the interests of many parties are aligned and they should take advantage of that.

[Blacksmith Jade]

Hey Fubar,

Just a quick note on the poll: The geographical points highlighted don't reflect the absolute number of votes in that area but the relative number.

Consider a situation in which a 100 people voted in Beirut and 1 person voted in Zahleh. In both cases there would be a single marker for each region. If a majority (say 51) of the Beirut votes favored candidate A over B, then the marker for Beirut would go to candidate A. If the Zahlah voter also chose A then the vote count would be 52-A, 49-B. The markers would show 2-A, 0-B.

[Blacksmith Jade]

The system ain't perfect but it works pretty well with the blogger setup...

[Bad Vilbel]

I hate to say "Told you so" about the stinking "initiative" that was really blackmail :)

Besides that, I agree with AK. We are headed for the so-called "transitional government" (again, exactly what I had predicted some months ago).

Fun times ahead.

[Nadim]

@fubar

This is weird because I voted for Nassib from Lebanon, apparently the geography thing isn't very accurate. Or maybe the "pins" representing votes are superimposed?

[Jeha]

Fubar, Jade,

A few of those IP's do not register as Lebanese because many share a connection, and some connections use links from Cyprus, Russia...

[Bad Vilbel]

About the update:

Exactly! The initiative was always about making demands (not compromise). It all comes out now. Turns out the opposition's demands are still exactly the same and they haven't compromised on anything: They still want veto power, they still want 1/3 of the new cabinet, in addition to get THEIR president, and they still want to go back and trash 1559, as pointed out above. Compromise my ass.

I really wish the sheeple would see through this kind of hubris. Unfortunately, there are still countless people who take words at face value. Words like "compromise" and "initiative" resonate with the sheeple, who then proceed to think "Hey, this Berri guy isn't so bad after all! He's making initiatives and trying to compromise. Why is M14 being so intransigent?"

In related matters: Anyone find it hilarious when Berri says: I will keep calling for sessions to elect a new president even if I had to spend the nights in Parliament.

This from the man who's refused to convene parliament for a year now...

[Elie]

Dear Mr.Marcel Ghanem,
Allow me to say that yesterday's episode of Kalam AlNess(Nabih Berri) was among the worst.Fact that you practicaly listened all the time and many of the real questions that should have been asked were purposely forgotton.Its really so frustrating to hear the head of the house of parliment talking in a vulgar way about members of his parliment and you unfortunately laughing though you should have at least reminded him that there are millions of people listening and will defenitly take a very wrong impression.

[Naji]

Mr.Marcel Ghanem,
Regards.
Desperate and frustrated lebanese were expecting to hear positive reflections Yesterday. however,unfortunately his excellency used the street language in disecting one word to end by adding the frustration of the poor lebanese.Your self were practicaly nonexisting and you should be ashamed of such an episode.

[juliette]

Dear Mr.Ghanem,
I did watch only 45 minutes of yesterday's episode(Mr.Nabih Berri)and could not but feel so frustrated.Defenitly not a good reflection of lebanese wisdom and intelligence.

[Vox P]

The Shia speaker can be M8, the Sunni PM can be M14, but the Maronite president must to be neutral and accepted by all. I think that it is unfair and that this crisis is creating a dangerous precedent.

[fubar]

Vox P,

So true, but it is the Christians that are truly divided, not the Shia or the Sunni to any great extent. United we stand, divided we fall.

**********

Re: The Poll

Facts:
1. It is not a scientific poll.
2. The pins represent IP locations, not necessarily where the voter is.
3. There is a zoom feature on the map, use it and you will see hidden votes - those that are covered up by a superimposed pin.
4. While I personally don’t have the time to count all the pins in zoom mode, it does at least appear that almost all, if not all, of the 240 votes do have a pin somewhere.

Observations:

1. Someone voted for Michel Aoun from Iraq, SW of Basra? No, click on the pin and you will that that pin is actually from Kuwait. Why is it in Iraq? Who knows.

2. It appears that Paris, France, is Aoun land. But zoom in on Paris and you will find:

1 vote for Michel Suleiman from Saint-Maur-des-Fossés
1 vote for Butros Harb from Paris
1 vote for Michel Aoun from Sevres
1 vote for Amin Gemayel from Chevilly-Larue
1 vote for Michel Aoun from Villeneuve-le-Roi
and
1 vote for Michel Aoun from Senlis

So if you don’t use the zoom feature, you don’t see the hidden votes for Suleiman, Harb, and Gemayel.

Likewise, zoom in on Seattle and you will see not just one but two additional hidden votes for Nassib Lahoud - from Seattle, Bellevue, and Redmond.

3. Where is Nadim’s Nassib Lahoud vote from Lebanon? No idea. The closest Lahoud vote is from Saudi and the next closest is from the UAE. Somehow, I don’t think either of those are Nadim, but maybe. The only vote pin from Russia is for Michel Aoun. Here’s a conspiracy theory for you Nadim: Your IP is owned by an Aounist who changed your vote to Aoun. lol. The alternative is that your IP is swamped with Aounists who voted for Aoun so he gets the pin. If that is the case, you are surrounded, retreat or surrender, what’s it going to be?

4. Finally, someone in Alice Springs, Australia, voted for Nassib Lahoud. Damn, what does some poor Lebanese guy/gal have to do to get exiled to Alice? Let us hope he/she was just on vacation, climbing Ayers Rock or something equally cool like hiking Kings Canyon. Then again, maybe he/she was there on a camel buying trip - not so cool.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan will like this quote. I snipped this off Tony's blog. It's good to know SOMEONE gets it. Maybe Mr. Shamseddine should be elected speaker after the next parliamentary elections:

To his credit, a non-Hezbollah Shiite, Ibrahim Shamseddine (son of the late cleric), made the most sense: "it's time for us to abide accurately by the constitution, and for parliament to elect a president out of several candidates, and not for a single president to be made outside parliament and then sent there. This is a critical and essential matter. ... The characteristic of a democratic system is that it allows the peaceful rotation of power, and the ruler is not eternal. Those who don't like an incoming president should wait until a new one is elected. Those who don't like a government can hold it accountable and change it in parliament. Those who don't like [the make up of] parliament can change it after 4 years."

[Bad Vilbel]

And in another illustration of how isolated Syria is, and how low the relations between Bashar and the Saudis has fallen:

The Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jareeda reported Friday that there is no communication between the group's leadership in Gaza and its leadership abroad.

Meanwhile, both the Saudi Arabian and Egyptian governments have refused a proposed visit by Khaled Mashaal, head of Hamas' political bureau in Damascus, stating that the Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip must be reversed before they would allow him to enter the countries, Al-Jareeda reported.

[ghassan karam]

BV
As you have rightly guessed I rejoice when I read words like the ones that you quoted in your post. It is because of my total belief in the concepts of individual liberty and the dire need to separate the state from religious practice that I have for years called against including HA in the cabinet. You see, HA and its leaders have no choice but to oppose everything that was stated by Mr. Shamseddine.A Khomeini follower has to reject civil law and democracy in all its forms,
. The following quote from the book of sayings by Ayatollah Khomeini might help some readers who are not familiar with his work:

"We (Khomeini speaking for the Imams) forcefully that refusal to wear the veil is against the law of God...We affirm that the ludicrous use of the Western hat stands in the way of our independence and is contrary to the will of God...coeducational schools are contrary to the divine will...music engenders immorality, lust and licentiousness" He goes on to say in a different setting:
" If the Suktansare obedient to Islam, then they should be obedient to the clergy. they should ask the clergy for laws and regulations".

As you can see from the above it is foolish to think that HA would be interested in civil society, democracy and the rule of law. To them none of these things is of any significance. It is the likes of Nasrallah that are empowered to rule and dictate unilaterally. But it gets worse, much worse " Moslems have no alternative..[but} to force those in power to conform to the laws and principles of Islam, to an armed holy war against profane governments".

Unless HA and their followers are willing to reject or at least modify the thrust of these teachings then their ideas are totally incompatible with modernity.

[ghassan karam]

I have resisted all day posting a few lines about Mr. X, the hypocritical "double faced infernal traitor and schemer". ( That is the best definition of dupicity that I know of). But I just cannot resist anylonger.
Mr. Janus faced, is a double dealing sleeze, a fraud, an untrustworthy hyena who also happens to be a mailbox for the dictator next door. That makes him in my book a traitor.
I can accept the fact that the current unenviable political dynamic in Lebanon has forced upon us to accept in positions of leadership such unprincipled and even ignorant individuals as Beri but I do not accept that we owe these individuals any respect. Why do we offer them credible platforms to spread their malicious messages and why do we pretend that the garbage that comes tumbling out of their mouths has any value. We might have no choice to to accept Mr. Beri as a Speaker but the media is under no obligation to cover his rants and the people have the moral obligation to avoid the rubbish that he is capable of producing.The only decent thing to do is boycott the Speaker. (When a tree falls in the forest and there is no one nearby does it make sound?)

[JoseyWales]

Damn right Gus,

The press (and Marcel Ghanem) keep kowtowing to this piece of feces Berri.

Also aggravating: they all indulge Berri in his illusion/delusion that he is a mediator in this mess, when he is 200% attached to one side and is its cheer-leading obstructionist. The mind boggles.

PS And, as a "mediator", his demands and comments are constantly on page one: free propaganda for his side.