From Beirut to the Beltway

A president without a name

It's hard to summarize the political activity taking place in Lebanon without drawing big question marks. March 14 sources described the mood as "fluctuating between optimism and pessimism", An-Nahar reported. And even though Samir Geagea named Nassib Lahoud and Boutros Harb as March 14's candidates, Saad Hariri says the talks between Berri and the March 14 coalition are focusing on the "[job] specifications" (mowasafat) of the new president, as opposed to his identity. Hariri told fasting Tripolitanians two days ago that the new president must be born out of the "womb of consensus".

The "political qualifications" being discussed include, according to An-Nahar:

وفي المواصفات السياسية القرار المستقل الذي يحيّد لبنان عن المحاور الاقليمية والدولية، وطمانة المقاومة تمهيداً لاستيعاب سلاحها لاحقا، وضمان السير حتى النهاية في المحكمة ذات الطابع الدول

In English, that's "independent decision-making", "assuring the resistance" and "continuing the Hariri tribunal". It's hard not to see the many contradictions in these "specifications". Also, no post-Taef president can have the power to impose them, as these are the prerogatives of the cabinet and parliament—two institutions under siege by Berri, Hizbullah and the Assad regime.

For all that, the name of the president matters less at this point. A compromise is being sought on the makeup and agenda of the post-election executive authority, specifically the new cabinet.

Hizbullah's weapons would be at the core of this compromise. Take it from Hizbullah MP Mohammad Raad:

وموقف "حزب الله" مما يدور على مستوى المشاورات الرئاسية عبّر عنه أمس رئيس "كتلة الوفاء للمقاومة" النائب محمد رعد الذي دعا الى "اليقظة وإن لاحت في الافق تباشير ايجابية". وقال: "نأمل في التوافق على رئيس الجمهورية المقبل للبنان، ونخرج عندها بحل يطمئن المقاومة وأهلها الى ان سلاحها اصبح خارج التداول. ونحن لا يعنينا اسم الرئيس المقبل للجمهورية ولا شكله ولا لونه ولا طعمه، ولكن ما يعنينا هو توجهه وماذا سيعمل من اجل حفظ المقاومة ورعاية اهلها وضمان حقوقهم والحفاظ على انجازاتهم ومستقبلهم".

And this from Hizbullah's Hassan Haj Hassan:

كد عضو كتلة الوفاء للمقاومة النائب حسين الحاج حسن "أن التوافق على رئيس للجمهورية ينبغي ان يكون توافق النقاط الاساسية، وهي ان الرئيس المقبل يجب أن يكون لكل اللبنانيين وليس لفريق واحد، وأن يعرف كيف يصون سياسات البلد وسط التطورات التي تجري في المنطقة، وأن لا يتحول لبنان أداة من أدوات السياسات الأميركية، وفي طليعة هذه النقاط التي ينبغي لأي رئيس للجمهورية يمكن أن ينتخب أن يدرك أن القرار 1559 هو ضد مصلحة لبنان بالكامل وهناك تناقض كبير بين استمرار واستقرار لبنان وبين تطبيق هذا القرار"

As far as Hizbullah is concerned, an acceptable president is one who pretends their weapons don't exist, who "preserves the resistance and its people and guarantee their rights and preserve their accomplishments and future", and who "realizes that UNSC 1559 is against the interests of Lebanon, that there is contradiction between implementing that resolution and the viability and stability of the country". In other words, no weapons, no country.

So one wonders how Berri and Hariri are approaching their new "dialogue", given Hizbullah's position. In essence, we are back where we left off before Hizbullah's actions caused a disastrous war with Israel. Unless Hizbullah vows to at least discuss operating under the army's leadership, March 14 will find itself asked to turn a blind eye to a ticking time bomb. The new Lebanon that is acceptable to Hizbullah is a confederation between Iran, Syria and Shia-run Lebanon.

Needless to say, Nabih Berri is not qualified to be running yet another time-buying round of consultations. The man who, to quote former Amal member Mohammad Abdel Hamid Baydoun, is responsible for making Lebanon a failed state and turning its parliament into a shop run by one sect, did not earn the right to be portrayed as the country's only hope. For if that is the case, he would at least honor the promise he made when March 14 put him in that position, which was not to obstruct political life in Lebanon. Instead, we see him criticize the UN Security Council statement for calling for elections free of terror and intimidation, at a time this terror is  conveniently claiming the lives of his political opponents, one after the other.

As for Saad Hariri and March 14, a new pact this "dialogue" will not create, let alone a consensus child.  Same goes for the French expectations of Iran. The age of immaculate conceptions is over. But good luck anyway.

The death of parliament

Berri opened the door a crack today to shut it again soon after. The scene was surreal and sad at the same time. If you ask this blogger, it felt like a wake attended by both the killers and the victims. The deceased: parliament.

Lebanon's parliament on Tuesday put off a session to elect a new president until next month after the legislature failed to muster enough lawmakers because of a Hezbollah-led opposition boycott.

The announcement was made by a parliamentary official in the chamber after the bell rang three times to call the lawmakers into session. Lawmakers from the pro-government majority were in the chamber for 30 minutes, but many opposition members, who gathered in the building, stayed in the hallways. (AP)

Someone in March 14 will object to the above reporting, for it presumes that a 2/3 quorum is required and that Berri's presence is essential. But it doesn't really matter. Defiance was not in the air. Just death and the illusion of hope. Democracy has to wait for the letter to arrive in the mailbox, and until God whispers an explanation of the constitution in the patriarch's ear.   

From now until next month, when Berri opens the door again, nothing will happen, except more statements and counter statements, and attempts at "dialogue" punctured by assassinations. How wrong they are to think a "consensus" president will be found. Even if such a person is found, how long before he becomes a picture on an empty seat?

Another March 14 MP killed

March 14 MP and Kataeb party member Antoine Ghanem was reportedly killed today in a massive bomb attack in Sin El Fil, Beirut. LBC reported 6 dead so far including Ghanem, and ten wounded.

The assassination comes 6 days before a scheduled parliament session to elect a president. The pro-Syrian and Hizbullah-led coalition threatened to boycott the session if March 14 used a majority vote to elect a president. Many in March 14 expected political assassinations to precede the election and reduce the parliament's majority. The Assad regime opposes a president from March 14, and insists on a pro-Syrian president to safeguard its interests and the interests of its allies in the country, including Hizbullah. The Assad regime also wants a president to "open a dialogue" on recent UNSC resolutions calling on Syria to respect Lebanese sovereignty and establishing a tribunal to try those responsible for the Hariri assassination and other political crimes in the country. 

According to al-Markazia, Syria rejected a French deal for more open relations between the EU and Syria, as well as a seat in the upcoming Middle East peace conference in Washington, in return for lifting of the Syrian veto on the Lebanese presidential election. Just today, the regime's mouthpiece al-Thawra published a scathing and personal attack on French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who on more than one occasion publicly proposed open relations with Syria if the latter stopped blowing up its Lebanese opponents and allowed parliament to vote in a president.

Antoine Ghanem was reportedly a moderate well liked by MPs from both sides of the divide. With his murder, the majority lost another vote, and March 14 MPs may not feel safe anymore to stay in the country, let alone head to parliament on September 25th to elect a president. Many MPs are outside the country (including Ghanem, who just returned). As for the Assad regime, it has just reconfirmed to the world, especially to the French, that it does not care about dialogue or open relations with the west.

Update. According to MP Wael Abou Faour, Ghanem, who arrived in Lebanon two days ago, told him he wasn't afraid and said they should all head to parliament to elect a new president . Ghanem belonged to Walid Jumblatt's bloc.

Update 2. The death toll rose to nine.

Update 3. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Lebanese security agencies (he didn't specify) are infiltrated (presumably by Syrian intelligence), which he said facilitates the work of the killers, the aim being to reduce the parliament's majority.

Update 4. From Naharnet:

A friend of the victim, speaking on condition of anonymity, quoted Ghanem as telling him Tuesday evening: "I face the threat of assassination. They want to kill me to open the door for by-elections to choose a new MP from (Michel Aoun's) Free Patriotic Movement." Ghanem had represented the Baabda-Aley constituency in parliament since the year 2000. Ghanem's constituency houses Hizbullah's stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where the party that is opposed to the March 14 alliance carries a sizeable influence.

Update 5. Saad Hariri said the "cowardly" Assad regime chose to respond to the Israeli raid by killing Lebanese.

Olmert hearts Assad?

A year after Ehud Olmert described Syria as "the single most aggressive member of the axis of evil", dismissing peace negotiations until "Syria stops supporting terrorism, when it stops giving missiles to terror organizations", the Israeli prime minister today said he wanted to "make peace unconditionally and without demands with Syria", adding that he has "lot of respect" for Bashar Assad and his policy. 

"We want to make peace… we are willing to make peace with Syria unconditionally and without demands. I have a lot of respect for the Syrian leader and the Syrian policy," Olmert said in a meeting with Russian reporters at his Jerusalem residence.  The Syrians "have internal problems," the PM said, "but we have no reason to rule out dialogue with Syria."

Olmert, who still won't comment on a mysterious air raid on Syria last week, was joined by Israeli president Shimon Peres, who declared that "recent tensions between Syria and Israel are now over".

Israel's Nobel Prize-winning president, Shimon Peres, on Tuesday said recent tensions between his country and Syria were now "over" and expressed optimism about an upcoming Mideast peace conference in Washington.

These strange statements are raising eyebrows everywhere. Is Olmert confused, or is he feeling more confident after the mysterious airstrike boosted his popularity index and exposed Bashar's vulnerability? How can he have "a lot of respect" for Syrian policy? Some might take these statements at face value to conclude that the Israeli government feels that it accomplished its objectives through that raid, and is now sending assurances to the Assad regime that it's "over", and that its problems with Lebanon (Syria's so called internal problems) should not stand in the way of negotiations in which the Israelis have the upper hand (or so they think).

Syrian regime: Berri is our mailbox

High ranking Syrian officials reportedly told the French ambassador to Damascus that Berri's initiative, which was marketed by the speaker as "100% Lebanese", is the regime's response to French demands for a positive Syrian role in the presidential election. The Syrians are now reportedly waiting for the US and Saudi Arabia to "present an initiative towards Syria".

وعلى صعيد المواقف السياسية، كان لافتاً أمس الموقف الذي كشفته مصادر ديبلوماسية لـ «الحياة»، وفحواه ان عدداً من كبار المسؤولين السوريين الذين التقاهم السفير الفرنسي في دمشق ميشال دوكلو، أبلغوه ان مبادرة بري في شأن الاستحقاق الرئاسي في لبنان تدخل في إطار الجهود التي بذلتها سورية تجاوباً مع طلب فرنسا منها القيام بدور إيجابي في هذا الاستحقاق. وتابعت المصادر ذاتها ان المسؤولين السوريين ينظرون الى مبادرة بري على انها تظهر تجاوب دمشق مع الطلب الفرنسي، وأنه يأتي الآن دور الولايات المتحدة والمملكة العربية السعودية لتقدما مبادرة في اتجاه سورية. (Al-Hayat)

The rules are changing, but will Lebanon make it?

French FM Bernard Kouchner told reporters a few days ago that if Syria allows the election to take place, and stop blowing people up in Lebanon and the region, it will be rewarded with more open relations. But if the Saudi snub is any indication, the regime has no intention to let the country elect a president. According to Kuwait's al-Rai, the Saudis canceled Moallem's visit after failing to get a commitment from Damascus on the Lebanese presidential election.

The Israeli operation in Syria caught the regime by surprise. Al-Rai claims a missile factory built with North Korean and Iranian help was targeted. The location of the factory was thought to be safe, since Israeli planes need to enter Turkish airspace to bomb it, which they did, prompting the regime to send their foreign minister to Ankara. The Turks didn't seem too concerned, leaving the Assad regime to feel increasingly isolated and vulnerable.

The Syrian response to the Israeli operation will likely come through Lebanon and Gaza. Al-Rai predicted more rockets to Lebanon, and an escalation through sabotaging the presidential election and expanding the Hizbullah rebellion in the country (not that they needed an excuse for all that). 

It seems the Americans and the Israelis will not watch idly this time. As I type these words, reports are surfacing of an Israeli commando operation in Niha in the Bekaa valley (update: The army denied it. But then, the army also said Fateh al-Islam has nothing to do with Syrian intelligence!).

It appears as though the world has run of out patience for the Assad regime. Dialogue and initiatives were exhausted, and they were all interpreted by Lebanon's eastern neighbor as validation of bad behavior. Are the rules of the game finally changing? Are the Israelis learning to not fear attacking Syria, and is the US finally going to retaliate against Syria and Iran for wrecking its Iraq project, and trying to do the same to Lebanon? The US ambassador to Lebanon yesterday said the US is discussing "several initiatives" with the Lebanese government on how to halt the smuggling of weapons across the Syrian border, adding that there's a strong evidence of arms being smuggled to Hizbullah. We'll have to wait and see what all of this means.

There's no doubt in my mind that there will be more swift and limited attacks on Syrian and possibly even Hizbullah targets. As for Iran, they probably got until next spring, or until the Syrians are dealt with. The Assad regime is quickly running out of options, except those that involve terror.

In Lebanon, the attention the Berri initiative received has never been out of love for the speaker, and it definitely does not translate into weaker backing of March 14. It's probably positive encouragement, and a last attempt to shield Lebanon from the horror awaiting Assad and Ahmadinejad. It might not work, and Lebanon might find itself in Syria and Iran's surrogate battleground as usual. In any case, I think those regimes can no longer assume their territories are off the battle chart. The stakes are that high for everyone.

Needless to say, tough times are ahead for Lebanon. The presidential election is producing unnecessary cracks in the March 14 coalition, some not publicized. It is feared that the deputies may not even be able to produce a majority vote. But things are not that bad yet on that front. The Berri proposal, in part designed to divide March 14 or at least show them as agents of war, has failed to create a rift Hizbullah and the Assad regime dream about every night. In fact, Berri's initiative, though probably a waste of time given the Assad regime's plan, had the effect of finishing off Michel Aoun's presidential project. That Aoun's only stated hope now is to preside over Hizbullah country speaks volumes of the general's political bankruptcy. His supporters are dwindling, and even if they're not, FPM members will soon have to choose between a US-imposed terrorist label and their mad general.

Fingers are crossed for our little country.

King Berri and the stinky onion

Hail King Berri, for he holds the key to parliament, declares governments illegal and picks presidents. Or so he wants you to believe. The mailbox spends his speeches and interviews praising himself and his "initiatives", accusing the executive authority of seeking to control the country, and gets away with it because he is the one and only.

Fifteen days after he "sacrificed" the demand for a national unity government, he proposed to pick the president, telling deputies that he alone can call them into session, and he alone can decide how many are required for a quorum, and he alone can pull a Lebanese solution. Bashar's mailbox, you see, is full of it.

As the most ranking Shia in the country, one that is still in a legal (though paralysed) institution, he still manages to command the respect of those desperate for light at the end of the Lebanese tunnel. Nobody can afford to ignore him. People find themselves looking for gold in the hay he spits out in the form of "intiatives" and "consultations" to allegedly save the country from itself, as opposed to saving it from his foreign allies. His latest initiative soared in popularity for the simple fact that it was the only window open in a house he boarded shut. The French and the Saudis rejoiced, and so did 71% of the Lebanese populace according to Berri's own survey, forcing March 14 to respond by half accepting, and half reminding him of the non-negotiable: UN resolutions and independence from Syria.

The "stinky onion" Berri smelled today in March 14's late response is their shy determination to go ahead with nominating a president for the new republic of Lebanon. His name could be Nassib Lahoud, judging from the attendance of his candidacy annoucement today. Berri and his allies saw the shy but sly March 14 tip-toeing to what is rightfully theirs: the presidency. They may limp and occasionally fall on their backs, but there is no turning back, and Berri knows it. This country will either be reborn, or die.

Only the French and the Saudis still hope for a miracle in Nejmeh square. This blogger wishes he could share their delusion, but it does seem as if the plan for a second government is underway. Aoun today warned that Hizbullah could resort to using force if it felt threatened, and yesterday predicted that the strongest on the ground will take over power when the constitution collapses. The poor thing still believes he will be made president of Lebanon, or Lebanon 2. He did not see in Berri's offer to find a president a blow to his candidacy, as he perhaps read it as a hopeless and insincere last minute gesture to justify a inevitable coup (or coup attempt).

According to Berri, the great evil is coming in the form of a second cabinet, two general security agencies, two different internal security forces and divided ministries. Luckily, he said the army would stay united because it "paid the blood tax". Ignoring that March 14 has been paying that same tax since 2004, he said Emile Lahoud has six options to consider, one of them being a second government, another could be a self-extension of his term, and the others unknown.

Praise be to Berri, for he has delivered. The critics may find a good performance, but the audience is bored.

Now on with the rest of the show. Are we running with Nassib Lahoud?

Update. See Tony's take on Berri's interview.

But Berri made even more ominous statements, confirming every fear we've expressed about the "opposition's" intentions. Berri said that the new president (which, of course, is the one they impose -- after all, this is the purpose of his "initiative"), will bring with him his share of ministers in the new cabinet that would be formed after the election. Furthermore, Berri informed us, this cabinet (in which they would have veto power and maybe more) would proceed to review every decision made by the Seniora cabinet. And, echoing the recent statements by Hezbollah, Berri specified that one UNSC resolution in particular would be immediately trashed and that is UNSCR 1559.

This obsession with reviewing all the Seniora cabinet's decisions, and the fixation with 1559, just shows how Berri is totally susceptible to Syrian pressure.

Berri, in fact, was particularly concerned to the point of obsession with 1559 which calls for the disarmament of Hizbullah and the election of a president. He lashed out at "pro-Israeli" UN Middle East envoy Terje Roed-Larsen for saying a president could be elected by a simple majority, and most importantly, should implement UNSC resolution 1559.

A breath of fresh air

Those sick of playing defense derived pleasure from reports of an Israeli air strike on Syria. It's not out of love for Israel that some in Lebanon breathed a sigh of relief, but mostly because, and even though we don't really know what was hit, Bashar and his co-rulers will now have a "big hole in the desert" to bury themselves in when their time finally comes.

Citing anonymous Israeli sources, an Arab Israeli newspaper, the Assennara, said on Wednesday that the jets "bombed in northern Syria a Syrian-Iranian missile base financed by Iran.... It appears that the base was completely destroyed."

The previous day CNN reported that the strike, which could also have involved the use of ground forces, was believed to have targeted weapons either coming into Syria or moving through Syria from Iran to the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, Lebanon's Shiite militia that Israel fought in a war last year.

The New York Times also reported on Wednesday that Israel thinks Syria and Iran are buying nuclear material from North Korea and had recently carried out reconnaissance flights over Syria, taking pictures of possible nuclear installations.

A US administration official said Israeli officials believe that North Korea might be unloading some of its nuclear material on Syria, the newspaper said. (AFP)

Efforts should now focus on providing the Assad Bunch with a fast track to oblivion. The mass murderers thought they could transform their country into an Iranian military base, and turn Lebanon into a forward post to wage existential battles.  They may have acquired chemical weapons and given their buddy the divine excrement a head or two to call a "surprise", and they may even be sitting on North Korean nukes. But I am willing to bet that when push comes to shove, we can all sit back and watch them run for the nearest hole.

March 14 had better watch and act in this context. The rules of the game can quickly change, and those who never played fair should not be rewarded with fair play. If Hizbullah wishes to form its own state, then by all means let them try. The sooner they try it, the faster Iran's project will disintegrate. The longer we wait for the likes of Berri and Aoun to come to their senses, the more difficult it will be to call the big bluff.

So in the name of resistance and getting even, may it rain fire over those who thought they could use us as their shield. May Lebanon and its free people play this one right.

Above the law

Who is above the law? Now Lebanon has the answer (h/t Bad Vilbel):

Well-informed sources told NOW Lebanon that shortly before midnight on Monday, September 10, Wiam Wahhab’s three-car convoy returning to Lebanon from Syria aroused the suspicions of customs officials at the Lebanese-Syrian border checkpoint.

Observing that one of Wahhab’s cars appeared to be heavily loaded down, almost dragging on the ground, customs officials grew suspicious that the vehicle might be carrying illegal weapons and asked to inspect it.

Wahhab refused, and threatened that his bodyguards would open fire on anyone who tried to approach the vehicle and turn the checkpoint area into a "sea of blood." He also insulted the Lebanese government and Security Services.

Customs officials eventually let the convoy through uninspected. An investigation has since been opened into the incident, examining both Wahhab and why the convoy was permitted to pass without being searched.

Speaking of people who break the law and accuse others of violating the constitution, check out this interview with Fares Said, in which he says that Berri was charged by the Syrian regime to make sure the elections don't take place. Said says March 14 should not agree on a compromise candidate, and should respond to Berri with an initiative of its own, instead of letting him run the show.

Where in the world is Shaker al-Absi?

It's official: Shaker al-Absi fled the Nahr el Bared camp before the army generals announced their final push into the Fateh al-Islam hideout. DNA testing on a body believed to be his, and identified as Absi by his wife, daughter and a Palestinian cleric, proved that it wasn't him. It seems unlikely the Fatah al-Islam leader is genetically unrelated to his offspring and kin (samples were reportedly taken from his daughters and brother). 

In Jordan, al-Absi's brother said Lebanese authorities didn't know how to conduct DNA testing and insisted his brother was dead. However, Lebanese prosecutor Said Mirza announced today that the body lying in a Tripoli morgue was not Absi's.

Mirza said a captured Fatah al-Islam militant from Yemen confessed that he had fled the camp with Absi at 11pm on Saturday night, some 12 hours before the army declared victory. Absi was in "good health and wearing a suicide belt and carrying a Kalashnikov, magazines and hand grenades", the Yemeni militant was quoted as saying by Mirza.

I think I will accept Mirza's statement that Absi is alive and on the run. Unfortunately, it appears as though a red line has been observed with his alleged escape and disappearance. Absi's arrest would have provided solid evidence against the Syrian regime, possibly for use by the UN commission investigating the Hariri assassination and crimes linked to Fatah al-Islam. The UN commission has been investigating links between the groups that claimed responsibility for some of the murders and Fatah al-Islam.

With the Lebanese army's military intelligence handling the investigation into Fatah al-Islam, and given that the top generals have already concluded the group was "100 % al-Qaeda", the affair is starting to resemble the attempted cover up that followed the Hariri murder. At the time, the pro-Syrian authorities quickly blamed the assassination on an extremist organization, and a tape carrying the confession of the alleged suicide bomber was aired by al-Jazeera. The UN commission later concluded the individual in the tape had nothing to do with the assassination. 

Just like the Hariri assassination required planning and intelligence work, so did the operations carried out by Fatah al-Islam inside and outside the refugee camp. Sadly, it looks like the sacrifice made by over 160 Lebanese soldiers is being wasted by some pro-Syrian army Lebanese chiefs, some of whom were "educated" in Syrian army institutions. Last week, this blog quoted reports claiming that some Lebanese army officers facilitated the escape of Syrian intelligence officers who were running Fatah al-Islam. 

March 14 continues to remain silent over the army's exoneration of Syrian intelligence. When asked by LBC's Marcel Ghanem last week why army commander Michel Suleiman exonerated Syrian intelligence, Walid Jumblatt said, "I understand why Suleiman would say that, he has his considerations." Jumblatt refused to explain what these "considerations" were, saying that he did not want problems with the army commander.