A president without a name

It's hard to summarize the political activity taking place in Lebanon without drawing big question marks. March 14 sources described the mood as "fluctuating between optimism and pessimism", An-Nahar reported. And even though Samir Geagea named Nassib Lahoud and Boutros Harb as March 14's candidates, Saad Hariri says the talks between Berri and the March 14 coalition are focusing on the "[job] specifications" (mowasafat) of the new president, as opposed to his identity. Hariri told fasting Tripolitanians two days ago that the new president must be born out of the "womb of consensus".

The "political qualifications" being discussed include, according to An-Nahar:

وفي المواصفات السياسية القرار المستقل الذي يحيّد لبنان عن المحاور الاقليمية والدولية، وطمانة المقاومة تمهيداً لاستيعاب سلاحها لاحقا، وضمان السير حتى النهاية في المحكمة ذات الطابع الدول

In English, that's "independent decision-making", "assuring the resistance" and "continuing the Hariri tribunal". It's hard not to see the many contradictions in these "specifications". Also, no post-Taef president can have the power to impose them, as these are the prerogatives of the cabinet and parliament—two institutions under siege by Berri, Hizbullah and the Assad regime.

For all that, the name of the president matters less at this point. A compromise is being sought on the makeup and agenda of the post-election executive authority, specifically the new cabinet.

Hizbullah's weapons would be at the core of this compromise. Take it from Hizbullah MP Mohammad Raad:

وموقف "حزب الله" مما يدور على مستوى المشاورات الرئاسية عبّر عنه أمس رئيس "كتلة الوفاء للمقاومة" النائب محمد رعد الذي دعا الى "اليقظة وإن لاحت في الافق تباشير ايجابية". وقال: "نأمل في التوافق على رئيس الجمهورية المقبل للبنان، ونخرج عندها بحل يطمئن المقاومة وأهلها الى ان سلاحها اصبح خارج التداول. ونحن لا يعنينا اسم الرئيس المقبل للجمهورية ولا شكله ولا لونه ولا طعمه، ولكن ما يعنينا هو توجهه وماذا سيعمل من اجل حفظ المقاومة ورعاية اهلها وضمان حقوقهم والحفاظ على انجازاتهم ومستقبلهم".

And this from Hizbullah's Hassan Haj Hassan:

كد عضو كتلة الوفاء للمقاومة النائب حسين الحاج حسن "أن التوافق على رئيس للجمهورية ينبغي ان يكون توافق النقاط الاساسية، وهي ان الرئيس المقبل يجب أن يكون لكل اللبنانيين وليس لفريق واحد، وأن يعرف كيف يصون سياسات البلد وسط التطورات التي تجري في المنطقة، وأن لا يتحول لبنان أداة من أدوات السياسات الأميركية، وفي طليعة هذه النقاط التي ينبغي لأي رئيس للجمهورية يمكن أن ينتخب أن يدرك أن القرار 1559 هو ضد مصلحة لبنان بالكامل وهناك تناقض كبير بين استمرار واستقرار لبنان وبين تطبيق هذا القرار"

As far as Hizbullah is concerned, an acceptable president is one who pretends their weapons don't exist, who "preserves the resistance and its people and guarantee their rights and preserve their accomplishments and future", and who "realizes that UNSC 1559 is against the interests of Lebanon, that there is contradiction between implementing that resolution and the viability and stability of the country". In other words, no weapons, no country.

So one wonders how Berri and Hariri are approaching their new "dialogue", given Hizbullah's position. In essence, we are back where we left off before Hizbullah's actions caused a disastrous war with Israel. Unless Hizbullah vows to at least discuss operating under the army's leadership, March 14 will find itself asked to turn a blind eye to a ticking time bomb. The new Lebanon that is acceptable to Hizbullah is a confederation between Iran, Syria and Shia-run Lebanon.

Needless to say, Nabih Berri is not qualified to be running yet another time-buying round of consultations. The man who, to quote former Amal member Mohammad Abdel Hamid Baydoun, is responsible for making Lebanon a failed state and turning its parliament into a shop run by one sect, did not earn the right to be portrayed as the country's only hope. For if that is the case, he would at least honor the promise he made when March 14 put him in that position, which was not to obstruct political life in Lebanon. Instead, we see him criticize the UN Security Council statement for calling for elections free of terror and intimidation, at a time this terror is  conveniently claiming the lives of his political opponents, one after the other.

As for Saad Hariri and March 14, a new pact this "dialogue" will not create, let alone a consensus child.  Same goes for the French expectations of Iran. The age of immaculate conceptions is over. But good luck anyway.

Comments

[Doha]

I couldn't but agree with you, AK. I don't see a single runner-up for the Presidency who qualifies to fit all the larger than life requirements put out by the different parties negotiating over the next President. Who? I also don't see how you'll find a President who will be able to represent March 14 and March 8, as both factions are diametrically different from one another on outlook towards politics and towards the direction of the country.

Hizbullah MP Raad said yesterday that it doesn't matter what color, shape or form the next President is, what matters is his complete support of the resistance. So they want someone who will not question, but March 14 from way before has put the question of the resistance on the table for negotiation.

For the first time, I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. What has upset me more is the following: Why is Hariri meeting with Bush right now? I don't think it's a smart move especially when picking the next President for the country has to be a Lebanese thing. Can it be a Lebanese thing? Is it too much to ask for, or is it naive? Or will it never happen that picking a President for our country can be a pure Lebanese thing and that we are doomed for the rest of history? I think the answer is that we're doomed forever to settle for "taswiya". That's the buzzword for everything political in Lebanon my friend, "taswiya". And "taswiya" will never get us anywhere we aspire to get.

I feel terrible, because I'm pessimistic, after having so much hope. You'll see: they'll continue meeting, and sending envoys and deleting and adding names to the "serious list" and "non serious list". Bottom line is: the answer will come from outside of Lebanon! I just hope that I can be proud of who my President will be. That's all...

[jay]

Given the monumental divide between the two blocks partitioning is sounding a more compelling resolution. Surprisingly no politician brought this up yet, at least as a stick. On the surface it seems to be a win-win situation for everyone, including the regional masters. Finally Nasralah and his flock can formally call a Divine State of his own and choose to live in eternal "resistance"...

[naja]

Awww f**k it, since this is the Age Of Lying (copyright M8) then let M14 decide on a candidate who will solemnly proclaim the sanctity of the HA's arms, "achievements" and illusionary victories while cleverly disguising his lengthening nose.

[ghassan karam]

And the obfuscation goes on. HA has managed to move from one set of conditions to anotherand then another still. All its positions have been consistently designed to weaken the ability of the majority to govern and to impose on all parties the need to accept HA and its militia as facts on the ground so to speak. The issue of the Lebanese presidency is just the latest convenient matter to serve the above strategy. HA knows just as much as anyone, actually more than anyone, that the Lebanese political system is not a Presidential one but a Parliamentarian system where the Presidential office has been stripped of all its executive powers except that of accepting credential of ambassadors, chairing at will cabinet meetings and being a commander in chief. The current stand off regarding the new president is not being waged for the powers of the presidency; they aren't that big of a deal; but are another opportunity by each side to jockey for position and strengthen its ultimate hand in the formation of the ensuing cabinet and the forthecoming parliamentary elections.

May I also take the position that the list of qualifications being bandied about does not make it more difficult to find a suitable candidate. On the contrary these qualifications make the choice much easier. The new prospective candidate can pay lip service to March 14 but stand to protect the "resistance". History , both ancient and recent, has shown that Lebanon has no shortage of unprincipled politicians whose only goal is the prestige of the office. It shouldn't come as a surprise when many of the "candidates" , Harb for example, will be more than glad to become the consensus candidate by selling their souls for thirty of silver.
HA will set continue to set up obstacles and place demands as long as they can get away with it. And get away with it , they will, as long as the current March 14 leadership is in charge. Dare I predict that the plan to start the next "crisis" will be set in motion within a week of settling the current one? The pauperization of Lebanon goes on unchecked. "And so it goes".

[JoseyWales]

There's only one issue and its the Hezb and its weapons.

Our local clowns are deluding themselves in secret and international and round tables and square tables talking about side issues: the tribunal, the Syrian border demarcation, corruption, downtown, partial elections,...

The latest BS is the mowasafat of the prez (qualities or qualifications). Like AK said it's not "qualifications" we're talking about it's issues.

If you don't know what you're talking about, nor the words you are using to carry discussions NOTHING will get solved.

Plus, all this talk is another trashing of the constitution: the prez has no power over most of these issues.

Hezb has a credible threat via its weapons. The only counter threat M14 has is to put partition on the table (it's tricky and highly problematic but I see no other way at this point).

[Super Dude]

mowasafat would be closer to (if not exactly) specifications, instead of qualities, or qualifications which were almost always lacking in previous Lebanese presidents. Unless you include shiny white suites.

I am not sure how you guys managed to translate it as such.

[Charlie]

The Lebanese are a doomed bunch and Lebanon is hopeless as an independent nation. At the end of the day, they will put in office
someone who is not capable of taking a stand on any of the critical issues that Lebanon has to address, and to make things worse, the opposition will most likely be granted a veto power in the next cabinet.

In a nut shell the Lebanese collective (in Lebanon) does not have the capacity to deal constructively with any of the critical issues that has to be debated and addressed in a comprehensive manner. They have had many years to evolve into a mature society but they have failed to do so, and from the looks of it, they are not going to do it any time soon.

[AK]

Super Dude, I had it as specifications before, and it probably should be job specs. It's not easy translating these terms. If you really want to be picky, tawafok is not consensus (which is ijma'), it's agreement. But people seem to use it to mean ijma'.

I don't know, any linguists out there who can help? Not that it matters. I think we understand the issues.

[fubar]

Doha,

Despite the over-hyped bravado, Iran is shitting bricks right now. Do not believe for one minute that Iran thinks it is not going to be hit or that it will militarily defeat the Great Satan. The crucial dynamic is that the IR is on a mission from God. The IR has actually made great strides in the past few years. The question now is do they blink in Lebanon and maintain much of their gains or go for broke and push on while they have momentum.

Lebanon is not now, and never has been, in a position to determine its own destiny; however, that is not to say that Lebanon is not at a crossroads in determining its destiny. Lebanon has never had the support of virtually the entire international community (excluding Iran), including the entire decidedly undemocratic Arab world (excluding Syria). The major constellations are aligned in favor of a liberal democratic Lebanon for perhaps the first and only time in history.

Lebanon does not have the oil resources that others have. Lebanon cannot be self-sustaining as a repressive and closed society the way Iran, KSA, and others can. Lebanon's only hope for self-sufficiency is through openness to the outside world. Hariri, the businessman, knows this all too well.

Say what you will, but Hariri and M14 have chosen their way forward and meeting with the brightest star in the known universe of nations sends the desired message.

As a side note, while many Lebanese curse Lebanon’s geographic location for many of its problems, if it were not for the geographic location of Lebanon next to Israel, much of the world would most likely let Lebanon fall to Iran because of its lack of exploitable resources to a closed and repressive regime. Lebanon would rapidly suck dry an already economically limping Iran and, at least theoretically, hasten the demise of the IR.

AK,

Here we go again with the translation issues. Form over substance is the surest way to misunderstanding. Literal translations almost never convey the essence of what is said. For too many words there are too many possible choices in translation, each of which can subtly alter the meaning. Shoot for the essence of the meaning, not for literal accuracy.

Things have specifications.
People have qualities.
Except, if you are mail ordering a bride or, perhaps, a President. = )

[Hazbani]

An Israeli contemplating.
Unlike what some people in Lebanon and many people in Israel think Israel can not do every thing to every body and never could. Too many problems and leaders not much better than in Lebanon [why should they be better?] However, if Israel has to take a choise between Leb. rulled by Syria or by the Hizb. and Iran, Syria is the clear choise. If any body wants reasons he has not been living in the ME for the last 20 years.
Also the laws of the USA [ another regional mini power ] say that the Hizb. is a terror organization and this is problematic. For example, one of many, it is nothing as long as you do all you business in cash and small change. Banks are a clear no no in such situation. What will happen to Lebanon banking if and when the Hizb. rull? good question out of many, I hope no body will ever have to find out.
More. As I have written some place else. Any fool can start a war but even the most clever man can not predict how it will end. If and when the Hizb. will rull and will carry the amount and kind of weapons it carry now, some fool in Iran will decide when Lebanon will go to war against Israel. And as was said a good war is a war far away from home and Teheran is far. If I was Iranian a war in Lebanon and Israel will always look better than a war near home.
Another point, knowing what was said above I hope that there will be no more war between Israel and Lebanon. However if and when this calamity will befall us, hopefully never, Israel will do every thing that it can, and then some more, that in the end it will look different than the last one. As I said no body can tell if this will happen or not. However it seems to me that such war will be much more destructive much more lethal and very ugly for all involved. Are the people of Lebanon aware of these observations?

[Doha]

fubar,

i'm not against the meeting with the "brightest star", as you say; the problem is the timing and this is if you want to drive the message to the Lebanese that picking the President is a Lebanese affair.

[ghassan karam]

Hazbani,
I share your concern/fear about the level of destruction that would ensue another Lebanese Israeli war.
Many of the Lebanese speak about the amount of destruction that the last war produced but they conveniently forget that neither the airport, port facilities or the power generation plants were targeted. I am afraid that next time around none of these facilities will be spared and the losses will be huge compared to this previous one. May we never find out is a phrase that has a nice ring to it but is very highly unrealistic in a world where HA and Ahmadinajad can call the shots.

[ghassan karam]

Fubar, I tried to resist the temptation of intruding on the public conversation that you are having with Doha. But as you can see I cannot help myself , I feel that I must remind you that a star is at its brightest during the last phase of its burn out:-) Whether that make the heat that emanates from such a burn out irrelevant is another story.

[Bad Vilbel]

As Josey said it in his comment, and as I've repeated countless times, HA's position is simply put blackmail. Keep piling on more demands while talking about "consensus". Veto anything short of all your demands and blame the other side of "obstructing consensus".

Nothing new here, guys. We all see it. Why are the idiots in M14 still deluding themselves and living in denial about this? The soonerthis festering sore is excised, the sooner Lebanon can move on. Until then, there really is no point slapping band-aids and ointments on a sore that keeps getting bigger and infecting more and more vital organs.

By the way, that approach of piling on more and more demands that cannot be met, and then accusing the other side of obstructionism when said demands aren't met is not a new trick by any means. It's been Syria's M.O. in the Middle East for the past 4 decades, under the Assads. I just finished reading Barry Rubin's excellent "The Truth About Syria" and HIGHLY recommend it for a bit of perspective on the current situation.

[fubar]

It's not like Hariri did not meet with Iran's Ambassador.

(Tehran Times) TEHRAN – Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon Mohammadreza Sheibani and Lebanon’s Parliament majority leader Saad Harri held talks in Beirut on Saturday, the Al-Anwar al-Lebanon newspaper reported on Sunday.

“The atmosphere of the talks was very positive,” Sheibani said after the talks. He said Iran wishes success and stability for Lebanon.

“We also hope that all Lebanese officials cooperate (with each other),” the newspaper quoted the Iranian envoy as saying.

Hariri, the son of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri who was assassinated in terrorist act in Beirut in February 2005, plans to meet U.S. President George W. Bush in White House on Thursday.

***********

Ghassan,

LOL. Fear not, when the US flames out, you, I, Jeha, AK, Charlie, BV, et al., will be drinking, playing poker, and telling each other outragous tales of daring feats and conquests for all eternity in our own circle in hell. Remember, I reserved early and got a good circle. If you think it doesn't sound like hell, think about it for a while longer... = )

The more immediate concern is that tiny Lebanon flames out, and nobody notices the last faint glow of the almost star.

[Charlie]

Fubar,

What Syria is hoping is for Lebanon going Super Nova. They need to be careful though, for after the flare up and going super Nova the whole country will turn into a black hole sucking lots of the neighbors into the absolute darkness..:-)

[Charlie]

From the Ouwet

“11 Fpmers arrested and more than 9 others ran away after the ISF stormed the house of one FPM member in Jbeil ( Jeij village). This was reported on Sawout lebnan few hours ago ..”

The Arabic paragraph makes mention of the group using unlicensed weapons for target practice!!

If this is true, then some seems to be getting their finger on the trigger!

I just wonder when the zero hour arrives if Hariri going to have what it takes to dive into the dirty part of Lebanese politics and watch some of what his family built blow up in flames! After all it is tough for the builder to be the one doing the demolition to his own structure..

[fubar]

Charlie,

The Daily Star has that as:

BEIRUT: The Internal Security Forces (ISF) arrested at least 11 members of the opposition Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) who were allegedly training on private property in Jbeil to use weapons, security sources told The Daily Star on Sunday. The sources said the ISF had located at least 20 FPM members who were in a field in the Jbeil village of Jaj firing shots from Kalashnikovs, pistols and hunting weapons. Nine members managed to escape, while the other 11 were arrested.

The FPM dismissed the report and said it was aimed at harming the image of the party.

Last week the Lebanese government said after a Cabinet session that both the opposition and the ruling March 14 Forces were running military-style training camps.

"Vital security information confirmed earlier reports that there are training camps in Lebanon, some of them training in the use of weapons ... run by the opposition and some forces in the majority camp," Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said following last Monday's session, which lasted for seven hours.

Aridi said it was the first time Lebanon acknowledged the presence of this "dangerous reality" and would be undertaking the necessary measures to deal with these camps. Sunday's arrest, if confirmed, would be the first since Cabinet session. Both the March 14 Forces and the March 8 opposition have denied operating military training camps.

[Charlie]

Fubar,

"The FPM dismissed the report and said it was aimed at harming the image of the party."

LMAO...I guess having a retarded old fool dressed up in orange ranting and screaming is the kind of image worth preserving...:-))

Well we all knew it was a matter of time before the old militia tendencies are going to creep back up again, both Assad and HA have been banking on it.
The big unknown, as I was saying earlier, is how Hariri will deal with it?
If he encourages his supporters to pick up arms, then he will play right into Assad’s hands and if he doesn’t, then someone else will step in and fill that void and Assad will still gets what he wants. The way I see it, if Assad doesn’t receive a painful message soon, he has already won this tug of war.

[fubar]

Yo Charlie,

Totally. M14 stands unity in the face of assassination after assissination, not retaliating, just being picked off, one by one. Meanwhile, Nas, Micho and the mailbox feign surprise and move in closer for the political kill after each assassination. Hariri continues to tap dance till the last possible minute and who can blame him, who wants to jump head first into this clusterfuck.

[Charlie]

Fubar,

Even if they choose to retaliate, it will be a difficult thing to get away with since such an incident will be handled by the international team investigating all the other murders and will put them at the same level as the Syrian assassins. They are really in a bind now!!

[fubar]

Exactly. Both the high road and the low road lead to hell.

[Solomon2]

I keep thinking of Charles Malik's post from late last year:

A core problem, and one of the reasons why Shia are so dead set against 14 March and support Hezbollah even though they don't support their entire agenda, is because of the sectarianism, classism, and tribalism of the 14 March parties. Sure, the Democratic Left is non-sectarian, but Future, the PSP, and the LF - the power 3 - carry the sectarian battle standards high and make no effort at winning the support of Shia on the ground. Despite popular opinion, the Shia are not driven solely by edicts from leaders.

I find it striking that none of you March 14 guys has anything to offer the Shia (as represented by Lover/Romeo in the previous two threads). What do Hezbollah supporters have to look forward to if they give up on Hezbollah? Will it be charges of exile and treachery, followed by fleeing abroad, as happened to the SLA? Will Sabra and Shatila occur in Shia communities? Everyone knows Hezbollah did nasty things during the last war, and the enmities of the civil war bubble just under the surface.

Is it too much to ask M14 to provide some sort of reassurance or program for the Shia so they can be comfortable with a disarmed Hezbollah? Maybe amnesty and a South African-style truth-and-reconcilation commission? Apparently it is too much to ask. This seems to guarantee that Lebanon is heading for a train crash.

However, I deem that striking a middle course right now is tantamount to asking for assassination. Whoever is propping Hezbollah with targeted assassinations certainly doesn't want anyone else to appeal to the loyalty of its captive population.

So what can be done? As near as I can figure, the thing to do is to ride it out until the next prez is elected, or executive authority by default passes to the cabinet. At that point, the executive must do a very un-Lebanese thing: he/they must act immediately and exercise their authority to the fullest possible extent immediately, without negotiations with the other side. Anything less and the new prez will soon become another martyr, but with matters in abeyance until (and if) a new executive can be selected. The president may still become a martyr, but if he exercises his authority before he is murdered - say by appointing new Army commanders, kicking out offensive "diplomats", etc. - he may make it much harder for Lebanon's enemies to kill his successor.

[Bad Vilbel]

Solomon,

"Us March 14 supporters" (as you call us), DO have something to offer the shia: A sovereign, independent, democratic state. Where their voices would be equal to those of other Lebanese. A state where the rule of law applies to all: Shia and non-Shia alike. A state where everyone's loyalty is to Lebanon, first and foremost. Not Iranian mullahs, Syrian presidents or Saudi Kings. A stable and peaceful state, where they can turn their attentions to jobs, families, education, rather than being obsessed with fighting Israel or whatever other bogeyman they're told to focus on.

Does the entire M14 leadership get that? Probably not.
Does the shia population actually WANT that? I am not entirely sure.

[Solomon2]

BV, if I was a Shia, that might not be enough. I would wonder: once we have a law-and-order society, will I be punished for all the "bad" things I did for Hezbollah? If not, I might as well support Hezbollah to the very end, because the chance of me or my family losing property or life might be less.

I think an applicable historical comparison here is the Soviet Union. Even after Stalin was dead, tyranny remained, for just about all his henchmen had the blood of innocents on their hands. Solzhenitsyn's One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich appeared and that freaked everyone out, and they recoiled from facing themselves, fearing they, too, would be strung up on lamp-posts.

The South Africans had a much more sensible approach, with their truth commissions and very selective prosecutions. All that was part of the negotiation process that led to full democracy. The South Africans are available for consultation, and I understand they have been a major influence upon the Irish peace process.

Justice, as much as we desire it, must be tempered with mercy, lest greater injustices result. Nor is justice always a matter of fair and equal treatment for everybody at all times and places. These are the missing ingredients of the Lebanese political debate.

[Bad Vilbel]

I don't think you grasp how things work in Lebanon. I can't for the life of me imagine anyone "punishing" the Shia for supporting Hezbollah.

Just look at the post-civil-war era. Nothing changed. Did anyone punish the LF? The Druze? or any of the other factions or sides involved in the civil war? Not at all.
They all got rewarded for agreeing to stop fighting (except Geagea, but that's a different matter, and that was teh Syrians, not other Leb factions).

Lebanon doesn't work anything like the Soviet Union or South Africa. Trust me.

And i have to parrot Ghassan's endless comments here: If a stable, loyal and democratic state is NOT enough for the Shia community, then I don't think they (or anyone else with similar agendas that are in complete contradiction to the idea of Lebanon) can be offered anything by anyone.

I mean, you can only offer something to someone if it's in the general ballpark of what they're interested in. You guys in Israel can offer a peaceful and stable and independent Palestinian state to those Palestinians who are amenable to peace. Right?
But can you offer a peaceful stable and independent state to those who refuse your right to exist, for example? Does offering a sovereign state make sense to someone who's shouting about throwing you into the sea?

I think you understand my point.

[Shunkleash]

Hi guys!

Interesting posts AS USUAL!

BV you have hit the nail on the head! That is in fact what all us "M14" losers want. In case anyone is unsure of what BV is talking about its called...a MATURE civil society.

The shia in large part are lost, not becasue they chose, but because they feel they have no choic. That ladies and gentlemen is where we are...awful aint it?

Our political system is meant to keep us this way, unless the system is overhauled and a shiny "new" system is put in place that secularises the whole god damn place we are going to be in perpetual disharmony. It is useful to talk about problems and possible solutions...but sometimes it would make more sense to talk when someone(who gave a shit) is listening. Right now there are few too listeners.

As the great prophet Eli Wallach once said...if you're going to shoot, SHOOT...don't talk!

Im still waiting for my third hand info on the robotman's meeting with Amb teezeehairy of iran. My info will definitley be the truth and i will be the first to relate it to you. Folks, give it up please...all the speculation is not helping the matter...there is no way the saudi's and the US are goign to give it all up to syria. These days I am however proven wrong more than i am proven right, so we will wait and see.

By the way, bashar has refined his retardation. Syria is invited to a "peace" conference and Bashar has set conditions for attending. The Golan...thats right folks! Screw the fugees give us the Golan because we want a just and equitable solution for our past fuck ups and cowardice. Almost as funny as Ahmadinejad and Mugabi in their little pact for peace. What a line up...Ahmadinejad, Assad, Mugabi, Chavez, Qadaffi! Makes me warm and fuzzy for peace...

Shunkleash says--> ayesh lubnan.

[Mark]

Solomon2,

A agree with your approach in principle, but the Lebanese have proven too immature for your suggestions. We had the Amnesty Law after the civil war, and it became absurd everytime something happened and folks got arrested and the usual solution from some pols was to extend the date of the amnesty law. I don't recall the specific incident, but 3 years ago or so the way to help heal after some kids demonstrated and were arrested (someone help me out here) was to say, "How about we make the amnesty law that forgave all crimes through 1991 go through 2003 so we can get these kids out of jail." The absurdity of that idea is beaten only by Lebanon's creed of No Victor/No Vanquished.

Again, I don't disagree with you. It's just that everytime someone has a good idea for a problem, we say, "Yeah, but in Lebanon we can't because..."

[Bad Vilbel]

Shunkleash, about Bashar adding a new condition to attending the peace conference:

See my comment yesterday about the Assad's long habit of making demands that cannot be met and then blaming the other side for sabotaging peace. This is right in line with that habit. This has been the M.O. of the Assad regime since the early days. It's also been well used by their proxies: the Lebanese opposition currently seems to have mastered that same approach. Pile on demands that you KNOW the other side cannot accept, and then claim it's all the other side's fault for not wanting to compromise.

[JoseyWales]

Shunkleash,

A propos nothing and since you brought up Eli Wallach here's an old fav from that timeless classic "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly".

Tuco (Eli Wallach): God is on our side because he hates the Yanks.

Man With No Name(Clint Eastwood aka Josey): God is not on our side because he hates idiots also.

[Solomon2]

I can't for the life of me imagine anyone "punishing" the Shia for supporting Hezbollah.

That's probably because you are not a Hezbolli who has to rationalize in his heart why his sectarian group has weapons whereas the others do not. You are asking him to give up weapons that if they don't protect him much from Israel, at least protect him from addressing any accusations leveled by non-Hezbollah Lebanese.

Lebanon doesn't work anything like the Soviet Union or South Africa

Probably the best historical analogy is the England of King Alfred: a small country split into many different ethno-sectarian factions, the power of each varying with the degree of foreign support to its fighters, and threatened by periodic invasions to boot. Sound familiar?

A agree with your approach in principle, but...we had the Amnesty Law after the civil war, and it became absurd...the usual solution from some pols was to extend the date

Then why not try again? Now you know one thing that shouldn't be done the next time. I'm not recommending specifics here, yet one of King Alfred's strangest stratagems was the repeated conquest, pardon, and conversion of his defeated enemies, even when everyone knew it was a sham. A joke that survived over a millenium that I recall from Churchill's The Birth of Britain was of the experienced warrior who complained that the ceremonial alb wasn't as good in quality as those from his previous "conversions".

Alfred and his successors fought many battles, but Churchill maintains it was partly by turning the hearts of his enemies that he became known as "Alfred the Great".

Always, always beware reinforcing a key Lebanese weakness of character: the willingness to accept paralysis, trust blind hope, and do nothing, leaving your declared enemies free to maneuver unopposed. The short-term risk to the individual or group is lessened, yes, but at the cost of long-term well-being.