The hidden republic

Today was the 29th anniversary of the "disappearance" of Imam Moussa as-Sadr. Hizbullah and Amal organized marches and ceremonies. No Libyan flags were burned.

The anniversary coincided with the birthday of the original hidden Imam, al-Mahdi, may Hizbullah's god speed up his return from occultation to rid us of the fake ones who stole his hidden powers.

Meanwhile, the birth of Hizbullah's hidden republic is upon us. What Rice erroneously saw as a the birth pangs of the new Middle East last summer, may turn out to be the birth pangs of the Islamic republic in Lebanon or parts of Lebanon.

It's funny how people in the region often do exactly what they accuse foreign conspirators of trying to do. In the case of Lebanon, Hizbullah and their leftist sympathizers have made permanent slogans out of alleged foreign plots to partition the region into sectarian cantons to "suit Israel". In reality, however, we see them planning (some unwittingly) similar partitions should their political opponents dare go by the constitution to legally elect a president.

Nabih Berri is a great example of a politician who has convinced himself he is doing the right thing (Aoun is another). Berri, who had sent "questions" to Condoleezza Rice a while ago, received answers in the form of a reminder through the US ambassador that Lebanon is expected to elect a president or it will be in violation of UNSC 1559.  The US answer drove Berri up the wall, who saw it as a "step backwards". Berri leaked his dismay a few newspapers, and then broadcasted them over loud speakers during Sadr's anniversary commemoration in Baalbeck on Friday.

After attacking the US (and US aid to Lebanon), the Lebanese government and its allies, and accusing the latter of shutting down parliament, Berri, or the mailbox, as Jumblatt called him, laid out a new conditional, "all Lebanese initiative". He said if March 14 accepted the two-third rule to elect a consensus president, he would launch consultations to find that candidate, promising to forget about a national unity government to precede the election of the new president, which has been a Hizbullah condition.

Berri's initiative was coupled with a warning. A great evil will befall the country in the last ten days of Lahoud's term if March 14 did what the constitution says it can do and elected a president without Berri calling parliament into session. The "speaker" said many are "honing their knives" for this great evil, hinting that a civil war is a possibility.

We know a lot about this great evil that the parliament's speaker is apparently privy to, or to be more exact, party to. Berri's own Amal has been waging intermittent street warfare in religiously mixed areas in Beirut. His pals have been clearing the scene for an escalatory move for quite some time. Berri can boast that his latest initiative is "Lebanese" and not backed by Saudi Arabia or the Arab League, but the truth of the matter is that the Saudis backed away after being threatened by the Assad regime. An LBC report today quoted security sources as saying a group was preparing a car bomb attack on the Saudi embassy, and another one targeting the Saudi ambassador's convoy. The ambassador has now fled the country. EU countries have already been shown what can happen to their troops. The Lebanese army has been kept busy with Fatah al-Islam, and will probably split if asked to stop this evil.

We also know that Hizbullah has been monitoring the airport road for a while now, and it is said, the country's communications networks. Al-Shiraa reported last week that several apartments in Beirut were turned into listening stations for the Iran-backed militia, which is monitoring cell phone and internet communications. The Nasrallah Security Agency is actively clearing the ground for Berri's "great evil" to terrorize and possibly partition the country.

I hate to quote him, but this blabbering idiot often slips when he talks, revealing the sick planning of his bedfellows. Speaking to a stunned Marcel Ghanem Thursday night, Suleiman Franjieh said he has the "theory" that a war in Lebanon is easy to trigger, and that all you need to do is kill a leader.

We also know from an LBC report Friday night, that Hizbullah has been training SSNP and other militias in a camp in the Bekaa.

The opposition's plan of attack should March 14 elect a president seems to also include a take over of certain ministries (which has started, some of the Shia ministers are back to "run the affairs" of their ministries), electing a second president, a second government, a military coup, storming the Serail, civil war, you name it.

It is not clear what, exactly they will or can do, given that any step they take will pit them against the entire international community, minus Syria, Iran, Qatar and Libya. But evil it is.

The Metn by-elections may have weakened Aoun's grip over the Maronites, rendering Aoun a bit useless, and the Christian participation in the plot to destroy the government even more questionable. For that, lackeys such as Franjieh have selling their "efforts" as a battle to restore Christian rights allegedly lost after the Taef agreement. During his LBC interview, Franjieh said Rafik Hariri was either a liar or a traitor, and described the Taef constitution as one that took from Christian rights and gave to the Hariri family, i.e. the Sunnis. For him, the battle is about Maronite rights vs. Sunni hegemony. Unfortunately for him, projecting this as a battle for Christian rights did not convince the majority of Christian voters during the Metn elections. Franjieh's interview was one example of a mad logic that could kill an entire community, especially the part where Syria was presented as a guarantor of Christian rights in the country.

While the Christians in the pro-Syrian camp are selling their anti-state crusade as an attempt to give the Maronite presidency the powers they said it lost at the end of the war, and hinting that another war may be needed to restore them, the Hizbullah camp is not taking any chances. Their project is moving forward, and if their new friends in Amal and the FPM abandon or fail them, they will be ready to launch their own republic. They weren't kidding when they said they would never give up their weapons.

There have been numerous reports in the media, and some reported by the minister of communications, about the building of a communications infrastructure covering the south, Bekaa, southern suburb and parts of the occupied downtown Beirut. Unconfirmed reports that I received say that a power plant is being built in the suburb to supply the illegally built and rebuilt structures with Hizbullah-subsidized power.

For that, Hizbullah's project seems long term and long-winded, and is independent of its allies' short-term plans. Just watch their euphoria over the election of Gul in Turkey. I wonder if Aoun shared that excitement. But then, when Aoun warns of partition, he probably knows that his partners in "understanding" are close to drawing the border of the new Shia state should they feel that Christians and Sunnis have turned against them and their weapons, or failed to support their mission. The March 14 website has a report citing British intelligence, claiming the new Hizbullah state would include parts of the south and much of the Bekaa, excluding the area under UNFIL control or any area close to the Israeli border. Forming a state that has no borders with Israel reportedly followed an agreement with Iran and "advice" from the Syrian regime in order to keep the new state "viable". 

The above fits well with earlier reports that Hizbullah is buying land in Christian areas east of Jezzine and north of the Litani river, and using it to store weapons and build military bases. Some of the rockets, al-Watan al-Arabi reported last week, are long range missiles with chemical warheads, supplied by Iran. The area near Jezzine north of the Litani has already been classified as military by Hizbullah, and journalists are prohibited from entering it. Last week, al-Shiraa reported land purchases in Hermel in the Bekaa, where shelters and underground tunnels are reportedly being built, connecting the Bekaa to Syria.

For those who still think Hizbullah's rockets are here to fight Israel alone, think again. These areas would border UN-controlled Lebanon, a state Hizbullah would be at "civil" war with when the secession is complete and the hidden republic is born. And many in this new republic are ready to embrace their new nationality: they have been farmed to resist anything alien to Hizbullah's rule, and to distrust the "Zionist" Lebanese government that they were told want them dead.

It's hard not to see the country headed for a war of some sort, or some form of partition. The Lebanese army was dealt a blow with the Nahr el Bared episode, and with the nomination by Lahoud of General Suleiman, which has tarnished the image of the country's military institution.  March 14 may not survive this one, unless the EU and the US, and the Saudis, throw their military weight to stop the evil at its roots.

This will be one bloody fall, hopefully one that won't lead to the outing of the hidden republic.

Comments

[Ramzi S]

The ease and success of the Hamas takeover of Gaza only made Syria and Iran more optimistic of doing the same in Lebanon. Hizballah has fallen into this trap.

The only thing that saved Hizballah from a prolonged war with Israel that they would have eventually lost, is the Siniora Government.

Without their backing Israel will drive through NATO positions and level new "Hizballistan". And the Shia will learn the hard way that no minority in a country of minorities can rule.

[ghassan karam]

All political boundaries are arificial and if the inhabitants of a region desire a splitand an existence of their own then the process their wishes should be respected. That principle should hold whether one is discussong what used to be known as Chekoslovakia or Yugoslavia. Even the UK is undergoing an orderly process of devolution, some in Quebec would love to carve their own state out of Canada and so would the Basques in Spain.

A government, especially a demovratic one is formed to serve the people and not to impose its will on them.If the inhabitants of Hezbollah-landstan are to chose freely that they would like to severe their ties with the current state of Lebanon and go on their merry way then so be it. I am not sure, however, that this is what is happening. HA has installed/imposed itself as an autocratic dictatorial power that will decide for all what is good for them in the same way that they given themselves the right to wage a war on behalf of the other Lebanese that did not want to participate in that game.
I am afraid that I am sounding like a broken record but it is important to note that there to expect a democratic Lebanon to coexist with HA is a hypothesis of impossibility ; the twain shall not meet. Based on the above the conclusion is very simple and straight forward (1) Ha will stay within Lebanon by co-opting it. If HA is to gain power and control then that will be at the expense of loosing the diversity, democracy,and individual freedom and human rights that many cherish or (2) A free and democratic Lebanon can prevail only without the direct participation of HA in the cabinet and by establishing a strong central government that will apply the same law and order on all its citizens.

It is safe to assume that HA will not agree to be left out of the government and it is equally true that most of the Lebanese , or at least more than half of them does not wish to see the transformation of Lebanon to a mini Iranian statelet on the Med. Therefore the only course of action is to oppose the HA schemes of imposing a partition based on the principle of "facts on the ground". Sadly enough the current political leadership in Lebanon says that they do not advocate partition but yet at the same time they seek an understanding with HA. That is a contradiction, it is impossible to follow two opposing policies simultaneously and unless Mr. Saniora and Sa'ad Hariri come to their senses then they would in essence be aiding and abetting the demise of that which they claim they are promoting.

The way out and I trust that it will happen is to evolve a new political leadership that will be willing to make the tough decisions. We cannot afford the policies of aimless Saniora anylonger. They have become too onerous.

[fubar]

"The anniversary coincided with the birthday of the original hidden Imam, al-Mahdi, may Hizbullah's god speed up his return from occultation to rid us of the fake ones who stole his hidden powers."

Amen to that.

And since we are speaking of anniversaries, tomorrow, September 1, is the date when the 1988 mass executions of thousands of Iranian political prisoners opposed to Khomeini's rule is remembered.

"According to testimony of Kamal Afkhami Ardekani, a former prison official in the notorious Evin prison, for most of July and August of 1988, prisoners, including juveniles, were loaded on three forklift trucks and lifted to six cranes and hanged from the cranes in groups of five or six at a time in half—hourly intervals from 7:30 am to 5 pm every day uninterrupted."

http://www.americanthinker.com/2004/09/the_1988_iran_massacre_crimes.html

You don't have to be a MEK sympathizer to recognize the evil of the IR at work.

May God, and all the gods, foreign and domestic, have mercy on Lebanon.

[boo]

Long time reader first time poster.

Ramzi - your comparison to gaza is exactly right, but I am not sure if Isreal would be willing to go to war over this - it would be too nice of a gift for something called Lebanon - they need a return on such a huge investment.
Second HA would not even dream about attacking Isreal first cause they know there will be nothing to hold Israel back in such a scenario so whatever weapons they have would be used as a detterence. With such a scenario I do not think that Syria or Iran would want military confrontation with Israel they would rather capitalize politically - Syria would win by having an extra chip to bargain with for Golan and Iran adds another Shiite state to the arab world.

So the only way HA would be attacked would have to be through NATO forces and according to LBC the french forces were conducting military drills to ready their forces for any attacks. NATO might attack if bush is still in power cause he has a hardon for HA otherwise the world will look at us to clean up the mess the arabs will be dormant as usuall lost and confused.

Here is a good analogy of what the arab league is like:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=KAJzY1aWKCU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K14G_xs-uvs&mode=related&search=

[Bad Vilbel]

Great post, Abu Kais. Welcome back!

I said before, if they really want partition, let them have it. Let them have their little state, and let them suffer the consequences. At least then, they won't have any more excuses to blame on the Sunnis or the Christians or whoever. Consequences have to be learned the hard way, I suppose.

As for Berri's "compromise offer" of dropping the demands for a government of national unity before the elections. What a freaking joke that is! Considering any government in question would have to resign as soon as a new president is elected, this government that Berri is compromising about is only gonna be around for a week or two. Not much of a compromise, if you ask me.

Seriously, I'm tired of these clowns. Let them have their own country in the Bekaa and the South. Seriously. I'm all for partition. They have a completely different vision of the future than the rest of us. The 2 visions are not reconcilable. I don't see the point of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole anymore. And I would harbor no ill will towards this neighboring country. Let them live however they want, cover their women, start wars with Israel, just as long as they leave the rest of us out of it.

[JoseyWales]

I said it many times, M14 should have put partition on the table, if only to pressure Berri and moderate Shias.

Hezbostan will last 2 years before everyone there screams: "Put us back in Lebanon NOWWW!".

The good news with partition is that Nabih Berri would instantly become a plain worthless piece of shit, instead of a titled worthless piece of shit.

[Jay]

There is no way that Hezbollah will openly secede from Lebanon. Why should it, when it can get all the perks of partition right now by crippling the government, and none of the disadvantages?

[Jeha]

Great post.

Dark, but it may prove prescient. It looks like Hezb has laid some solid plans, but a few veterans would agree with me that "the best laid plans do not resist first contact with the enemy"...

And this may well be an even scarier realization.

When the chaos of war falls upon us, there will be hell to pay for all. The Ancient Greeks knew a thing or two about this, Mars, their god of war, was a messy fighter who would dispatch to Hades both adversaries and allies...

[Bad Vilbel]

I agree with Josey here. Hezbozistan wouldn't last long at all. And a lot of the worthless POS like Berri would be truely exposed.

But as Jay said, Hezbo has no incentive to actually go ahead with partition as long as they can get what they want inside Lebanon. Which is why it is key for M14 not to give in. Make Hezb go about this the hard way. Push em into a corner.

[Shunkleash]

I'll probably get rinsed or hosed for this one but here goes:-

Hizbteezeestan! Partition! Why are we giving up so easily? Is there no one that believes for one minute that at the end of the day to make any of these fuckers plan work they would actally need foot soldiers-SHEEPLE (to borrow a term). Does every single Shite follow that fat cowardly cunt Nassrallah? The answer is an emphatic NO! Does every Christian follow the two poachers in Claoun and Faggot marada man? The answer again is an emphatic NO! What about the Sunnis, do they beleive that weepy boy and SAAAAAAAAAAD the robot man have lebanon at heart? OF COURSE NOT! Hariri Sr. became rich off of the fat of the land with Siniora on his coat tails. I for one am convinced that their is no civil war brewing and definitely no GOD DAMN PARTITION! Violence of course...civil war? HELL NO!

If one applies a simple cost/beneift analysis either of the options would lead to the kind of strife that none can recover from...simply put it would be too costly for HA and the others. There sure as hell would be no gain for either goose neck or Mahdi No 5. Syria and Iran want to rule by proxy and reap the financial and political gains from afar...THE JOOOS THE JOOOS THE JOOOS remember? They do not want to be drawn into an utter fiasco of having to put out fires and deal with what will become irrelvant players and be forced to lose sight of the main objective. After all the true objective of these two butt jockeys is to stay in power and nothing else.

In my humble opinion, allow Hizbteezee to spend all the iranian bling bling it wants SAHTEN, by all means let Franjieh Berri and Aoun talk throug their asses, it will get them nowhere in a hurry...and for GOODNESS SAKE let Siniora abide by his new found vows of silence. When all is said and done they will be finished. As for George Hamilton, well his days are numbered, he will have the honour of being the third president of the republic to be assassinated and for once Syria wont have to terminate his tan because there are alot of people ready and willing to do so.

Patience my brothers, patience...don't look to the serail for guidance - Elvis has already left that building. Don't look to the army for protection the're tightening nooses. Look to the people for when the time comes THEIR BOOTS will do the talking...YALLA, I await your kind and courteous responses...if any:-)

Regards

[e]

What about the option of HAstan becoming an autonomous part of Syria? It will be viable and will serve both HA and Syrian interests.

It will end Asad's option of a proxy war through HA but he will gain about 1/3 of Lebanon for keeps.

Also, as an Israeli, I can vouch that no Israeli would see this as a reason to go to war.

e

[LebExile]

cut it out, do you really think that Lebanon abandoning the Shia to Hezb-teezee will do the trick...

It will only show that the Lebanese government is too weak to defend a segment of it's population and has left them to fend for themselves.

I dont believe that more than a quarter of the shia actually follow hezbteezee freely... the majority are just too afraid to stand up to them -- just as the current government is.

[ghassan karam]

(1) Partition as a principle should be respected if it is the true will of the inhabitats in question. When there is doubt, as in the current Lebanese situation, then it must be resisted by the central government. But that is not enough, even if partition is avoided. Those whose policies ,or lack thereof, have contributed to the present quagmire must be held accountable by forcing them out of office. Incompetence cannt be rewarded.

(2) Although I do not think that partition will take place yet e raises an interestingly crucial issue. Assuming that partition does occur, is the HAstan viable as an independent state or is this the first step of integrating these areas into Syria? I think that integration into Syria is the only option that makes sense and it is an option that will compensate for the parts of the Golan that Israel will never give up.

(3)The HAMAS coup/partition in Gaza was quick but cannot be described as a success, at least not yet. It is far more likely that Abu Mazen and civil society will emerge as the victors than to have Hamas become a model to emulate. HAMAS might have been fataly wounded as a result of its success.

(4)The Press Secretary of the White House explained on Friday the main reason for his resignation by saying "I ran out of money,"... "We took out a loan when I came to the White House, and that loan is now gone. So I'm going to have to pay the bills". How refreshing to learn that some ordinary citizens vie for Government jobs not to enrich themselves but in order to serve.

[JoseyWales]

Foe people to wake up, a shock is needed: TALKING about partition is the only way I see today.

Won't happen but if it did (partition): Berri becomes a zero immediately, Hezbo don't need him anymore. Hezbo will rise to become a superb anti- Syrian force the second Syria tries to control them/influence/absorb them.

Maybe the best way to address all this baloney (partition, arms, powers) is a REFERENDUM.

Think we could amend our toilet paper to allow for one? It could be for one time only you know. Just dreaming, our freaking pols will never allow it.

Shunk is right gotta wait for the boots to speak (but when?).

[boo]

aya boots aya ballooot; if the time comes for partition right before that period there will be so much paranoia built up among the people that they will all turn to ma'aaaaaa
and it does not take much - look at at franshity and aoun

[ghassan karam]

I have read Naharnet report about the so called Beri initiative of yesterday and they refer to one part of it , just like AK in the above report, as the need to elect the president by "consensus". I am not interested in nit picking but neither Mr. Beri nor any member of the opposition have ever asked for "consensus" to te best of my knowledge. What they have always asked for is "Tawafuc" which is best translated as "agreement" and not "Ijma'a" which is consensus.

I believe that the difference is important because if the opposition is asking for "consensus" which they are not then that in effect says there the president is never to be elected but chosen by consensus. They are , in my opinion, asking for a formula, that I have advocated for some time, that allows both sides to climb down. What they want is to elect under a 2/3 quorum a Lebanese president that will be ageable to both political parties. That is a direct admission that they cannot elect any of their own but that they have enough votes as to frustrate the efforts of the other side to elect a president under the 2/3 quorum which is a constitutional interpretation adopted by the "opposition", Bkirki, Harb and the Tripolitan Bloc lead by Mr. Safadi. So if a quorum of 2/3 is to be followed then the president cannot be elected unless he/she can appeal to both sides. That can happen and will happen by agreeing on a president that does not have strong ties to either parties. Their is nothing wrong with that if one is to accept the need for a 2/3 quorum. A "rais tawafuci" is an honorable solution to the current impasse provided that the agreed upon president has strong Lebanese credentials . There must be someone who is neither an HA ally nor a March 14 member who has strong Lebanese credentials and that does not include General Suleiman.

[Bad Vilbel]

Shunkleash,

The whole partition thing is not us giving up. I disagree with you. It's letting these folks who clearly do not want to be anything like us, have their own try at it. As Ghassan said, in the end, the right to self-determination supercedes other things. You cannot (and should not) force a people to be part of Lebanon if they don't want to be.

Now having said that, I'm not sure the PEOPLE (the shia, in this case) are for their own state. I think their LEADERS are. Which is why I say, let them have it, just like Hamas in Gaza. And let the people see what they get for following leaders such as Nassrallah and Berri. Maybe THEN they'll learn accountability. I suspect it won't be long after such a partition that Hezb's popularity will plummet (just like Hamas in Gaza) and the people will be clamoring to be allowed back into Lebanon.

As for Berri's initiative. Why exactly is it being "considered"? What's changed? How stupid is M14? Berri hasn't offered them ANYTHING. Dropping the demands for a unity government is akin to offering NOTHING. The government in question is only going to be around for 2 weeks at most before a new one has to come in after the president is elected. Berri is offering an empty gesture, and M14 are "considering it". What a joke!

[Bad Vilbel]

(3)The HAMAS coup/partition in Gaza was quick but cannot be described as a success, at least not yet. It is far more likely that Abu Mazen and civil society will emerge as the victors than to have Hamas become a model to emulate. HAMAS might have been fataly wounded as a result of its success.

Bingo!

The best thing to happen to Abu Mazen's embattled government at the time, I think, was this Hamas coup.
Which is why I think Hezb would suffer the same fate if partition were ever truly put on the table. Time to call that bluff!

[naja]

Folks, I've got some info gathered over lunch on friday - BEFORE Berry's speech - from quite well-informed sources. The deal seems a bit more detailed than what Berry talked about. Allegedly (and you know much plausible deniability we have to contend with) it goes as follows: M8 would accept a president within the Harb-Ghanem range; in return, there's a veto against Seniora and Hamadeh being in the new government that would be formed afterwards; said gov would be headed by Hariri; HA would put its weapons at the disposal of Suleiman; early elections parliamentary elections would be held; and - the cherry on the cake - Berry would keep his seat in that parliament regardless.

Now if you look at developments in the past couple of days, this kinda makes sense: first of all, Hariri has been unbelievably quiet, and this has drawn plaudits from some moderate M8 quarters. Bear this in mind: according to Al-Balad newspaper, he sent a representative to Berry's love-in - draw your own conclusions. In addition, on the eve of his speech, Berry had a surprise meeting with Feltman, which suggests that the initiative may be more serious than what we're accustomed to from the parliament hijacker-in-chief. Finally, and that's the best bit, Aoun has gone absolutely gaga in the past two days, to such an extent that M14 ministers who he practically insulted have responded with point-blanc accusations of corruption and treason aimed against the general.

Abou Faour's and Aridi's lukewarm responses to initiative, when added to the mix, suggest that, in this concessions-by-all and maybe even win-win scenario, the losers are the "lesser" players - namely Jumblatt and Aoun - but maybe also the LF. The alleged ouvertures between these two camps (Aoun's and Jumblatt's) - ouvertures that have been the centre of massive denials - may be seen as proof of this. There is also the fact that, earlier this week, Syria and Israel went a long way towards cooling things down in the Golan, after what looked like preparations for war.

I will not judge any of this. It could well be true. HA get their scalps: Seniora and Jumblatt, M14 get what is rightfully theirs without recourse to extreme measures. The only thing that makes me shake my head with disbelief - not at such a scenario but at its chances of working - is the HA weapons clause. "Like hell" was my reaction. When you consider their preparations for a complete state (referred to in posts above) you have to wonder how much they agree with Berry. My hunch? Both camps are showing signs of division - but this is more the case for M8.

[ghassan karam]

Naja,
The specif details that you mention might not turn out to be true but I believe that the Beri "offer" is a serious one and it will break the deadlock. Unfortunately the change envisioned by those in power will not be nearly sufficient so as to put the state on a path of true democracy and modernity. Yet it is a first step that could lead to a "solution". I am surprised that Harb is a serious contender. I do not think that he is presidential timber but then maybe that is what qualifies him. I will shed no tears over Saniora but I hope , for the good of the country, that the new PM is not Sa'ad Hariri. Besides being a neophyte and one who has inherited literally speaking his leadership position which is one of the worst characteristics of the Lebanese political system I question his ability to act independently when the majority of his wealth is in Saudi Arabia.

[leon]

The May 15th Prophecy shows how the United States is losing and will continue to lose their vital national interest and influence on a military scale.

And most important the May 15th Prophecy correctly shows how Iraq is being helped to prominence by the like of Iran, Lebanon and Syria and European nations such as Italy, Spain and Germany.

You need to see this for yourself at http://lastdaywatchers.blogspot.com

Everyone is talking about the May 15th Prophecy

[Charlie]

A comment on the Siniora vs Harriri debate: After the results of the last election, the question was whether Harriri is going to be nominated to be the PM. Hariri’s comments at the time was he will not serve with Lahoud in light of the fact Lahoud may have a hand in his father’s assassination, so Siniora was the FM representative to the post.

If Lahoud is out of office, and assuming M14 coalition is still in tact, then Saad Hariri will be the natural choice to occupy that post. After all, what is the point of leading a parliamentarian majority if he can’t secure the executive branch? I don’t really understand the meaning of a neutral PM or president. These posts require leaders with real political capital so they can use it to lead the country. If they fail, then the country should have the opportunity to vote them out and bring new set of leaders in.

[JoseyWales]

Charlie,

If they fail, then the country should have the opportunity to vote them out and bring new set of leaders in.

In a normal country yes.

Not in Lebanon where the prez is a foreign agent, the speaker is a mailbox, and the PM is hiding in his basement while the "opposition" rules and a bishop interprets the constitution.

[ghassan karam]

In a system of governance where the power does not reside in the presidency the President can never fail and obviously cannot succeed. It is true that the Lebanese presidential post is is not purely ceremonial since he is regarded as being the head of the armed forces and his signature is also required on a few other matters. Yet the Lebanese president does not set policy nor does he initiate it. As a result it would be wrong to apply the same metric to a Lebanese president as the one applied ,say to an Egyptian president , a French president or a US president. The Lebanese president is much closer to that in Germany, Turkey and Israel.
The new Lebanese president will not have much of a say in resolving the major outstanding issues in the country, social and economic policies.

[Solomon2]

Abu Kais, I suspected from your previous report that if "everybody" is talking about partition, the rumor probably originated with Hezbollah itself. Hezbollah has effective control of a large portion of the Shia community and in police states rumors are circulated by a special service for the purpose of obscuring the truth [Inside the Aquarium] and establishing the meme rulers feel is desirable to be at the top of the minds of the people.

Partition might have worked six years or even twelve months ago, but not now; Hezbollah is preparing. While I feel sure Syro/Hezb/Iran wants Lebanon intact as a pliable cover for anti-Western military and terrorist activity, they are preparing a fallback position in case their effort to install Lebanese president fails.

I figure that Syria and Iran, through Hezbollah, has been offerring Lebanese a choice: peace (that is, no assassinations, mob violence, or civil war) and prosperity (enjoy the things Saudi capital helped you build) in areas outside Hezbollah territory in exchange for a free hand at extending Iranian imperialism, or throw in with the West and see your leaders die, and possibly a resumption of the civil war.

Berri practically promises that siding with the West will bring immediate violence. Of course, siding with Iran reduces Lebanon to what diplomats call a "captive state". I believe this will lead to the eventual extinction of a large portion of the Lebanese population once Hezbollah's super-protected missile are believed to be armed with weapons of mass destruction. Lebanon's current leaders may realize the paradoxical danger of opposing the West that more weapons means less security, but a few honeyed words from Persian lips, something along the lines of, "We'll get you and your family and money out before They attack", may be enough to sway some people.

I have been reading the Lebanese Constitution. The president is far from being a potted plant, especially when the threat of domestic strife is present. His powers are comparable to yet greater than those of the British monarch. In a "normally" functioning parliamentary democracy his functions would indeed be mostly ceremonial, but the Lebanese president has the capacity to single-handedly throw much of the chess-playing carpet-weaving mullahs' careful plans for a loop, and seriously complicate their plans for regional domination.

How is that? I'll just give you one example: Article 53-7 states that the President "accredits ambassadors and accept the credentials of ambassadors." In ordinary countries, that just means the President shakes the hand of the new ambassador when he arrives. But in Lebanon, the president - and ONLY the president - has the power to kick Iranian and Syrian "diplomats" out of Lebanon entirely, and putting a padlock on their embassies so none can enter.

You can now see why the presidency is such a concern to the Iranians and Syrians: without an embassy to serve as an intelligence and command center not subject to Lebanese law, their underhanded operations in Lebanon are seriously curtailed.

Syria/Hezb/Iran are not completely sure their intimidation plan will succeed. Thus their fallback plan of partition: they establish a contiguous territory subject to their control.

Why discuss partition now, rather than years earlier, and how is this linked to the presidency? Because of the Lebanese president's oath:

I swear by Almighty God to observe the Constitution and the laws of the Lebanese Nation and to maintain the independence of Lebanon and its territorial integrity."

The current Syria/Hezbollah/Iran axis has a "fig-leaf" arrangement where "territorial integrity" is just a convenient fiction, but partition is the reality. Already it is said that the Syrian Army occupies dozens of kilometers of Lebanese territory without a peep of objection from the Lebanese president responsible for his country's "territorial integrity".

A puppet president like Lahoud accepts this arrangement without blinking. But another sort of president might object, feeling that accepting it means breaking his oath. He might decide, for example, to honor his oath by calling foreign forces to assist in defend the borders.

Hence the importance of the relation of the president to the partition issue. Hezbollah's could declare partition by fiat under a compliant president who would simply comply with his masters' wishes. But Hezbollah could also bring up the question of partition under a non-puppet president via the political process, and try to use it to destroy Lebanese democracy: either accept partition or it's civil war, or accept partition and lose your democratic legitimacy.

I suppose Lebanese both at home and abroad must feel like fish in a slowly constricting net, paralyzed by fear and lack of fresh oxygen from escaping their fate. It need not be so, but in my opinion Lebanese require both a leap in logic and a leap of faith to escape their deadly fate. They did it once before when King Hariri was assassinated. Can they do it now?

[Charlie]

JW,

You are right it is not the case, one would hope it will be some day soon though. Which is why I favor consolidating the office of the PM and the president into one.

GK,

I agree with Solomon 2, the office of the president continues to hold enough power to prevent the PM from effectively running the executive branch alone. If we are to move to a true democracy, this charade of power sharing in the executive branch has to come to an end. The power must be consolidated with either the president or the PM, can’t have it split in two.

[NOO!]

I seriously do not get where you get all this crap from. You and your M14 friends anticipate and fantacise of a Hezbollah civil attack so much that you dream of it at night, waking up thinking it was some kind of vision and reporting it as fact. Maybe something else. I don't know.

I dont understadn what interest Hezbollah or the potential occupants of Hezbollahstan would gain from a partitioned, illegal, continueos-state-of-war nation. You attack Hezbollah at everything they build or make. Why can't you accept that the Lebanese state has always favoured sectors in lebanon over others. Why can't you accept that former militias and internationally backed parties favoured sects over others. Why can't you accept that a very large portion of Lebanon's inhabitants have been alienated and attacked throughout Lebanons brief history of existence. Finally, you now HAVE to accept that someone has come along to fill in this void left by the Lebanons authorities - whom are either not willing or not able to provides the goods, needs and services this portion of the population is, and has been for a long, being denied.

If this or any previous government had been effective enough in providing the population with what they want and need, at least at satisfactory levels, this whole scenario would have been prevented.

I personally do not see what is so wrong with a private firm building a power plant, powerline or a telephone network. This is business. You talk of democracy and free markets? Viola! This is how things work in such a world.

P.S. The previous war with Fatah-Al-Islam was an outright embarasement - as in to find out so bluntly to the extent in which our friends support us and really are dependent allies. Lebanon NEEDS Hezbollah's weapons and expertise to even be considered by enemies. While our brave and innocent soldiers were being slaughtered, America was sending us bullets for outdated guns. Nothing more. Why? In fear they might be used against Israel. Meanwhile, Iran offered to build us an anti-aircraft network able to cover all of Lebanon and shoot down the IAF's F-16. And the government rejected.

Cheers

[fubar]

(Ya Libnan) LAF technicians and engineers modified the UH-1H helicopters, raising the height of the landing skids and belly mounting bomb-release gear and pylons from retired Mirage-3 jets.

“Then we got out of the depots old bombs and fitted them with new detonators and loaded them on the helicopters and tested the system and it was a success,” the official said.

So far, the helicopters have dropped 250-kilogram and 400-kilogram bombs from altitudes between 3,000 and 4,000 feet. The pilots use GPS devices to help guide them from point of departure to the bomb-release point.

“The precision has been remarkable, with most bombs landing within a 10-meter radius,” Temsah said.

The strikes have demolished many of the camp’s two- and three-floor buildings and many of the fortifications of the Fatah Al-Islam, according to LAF officials.

The LAF engineers have set up a bomb production line to ensure there will be enough bombs to complete the fight in Nahr Al-Bared and to prepare for possible future confrontations, the senior military official said.

Fawzi Abu-Farhat, a retired LAF brigadier general and editor of the monthly Arab Defense Journal, said, “This is the first time in the history of warfare that a helicopter is used as a bomber ... in an effective manner.”

*******

Really, where was Hezbollah during Nahr el Bared? Declaring it a RED LINE, that is where. Hezbollah has night vision googles courtesy of Iran, why could they not share that with the LAF? Thanks for nothing. Where was Syria? Syria could have provided weapons and ammunition but they did nothing. Now that the LAF has cleared Nahr el Bared, Syria lauds their efforts. Thanks for nothing. Where was Iran? Hundreds of millions of dollars for Hezbollah, rockets for Hezbollah, night vision for Hezbollah, nothing for the LAF. Again, thanks for nothing.

"Lebanon NEEDS Hezbollah's weapons and expertise to even be considered by enemies."

And that is the way Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran want to keep it so that they alone determine who the "enemies" are.

[Bad Vilbel]

Naja,

Do you honestly believe that Hezb will "put its weapons at the disposal of the Lebanese Army" ???

As soon as I read that tidbit, I got suspicious of this information you have about the initiative. I don't buy that Hezb would be willing to make such a concession. Either there is no such concession in the cards, or it's a hollow one, with Hezb having no intention on actually putting their weapons at anyone's disposal.

Secondly, I don't see Hariri as a PM being a win-win situation for anyone. Hariri has shown over the past 2 years that he's not quite ready to be a national leader. He seems too hesitant and not quite versed in Lebanese politics to make any progress. Not to mention the fact that he's viewed as a Saudi lackey of the first order.

And don't even get me started on Berri retaining his post.

I don't know about you guys, but this proposed "solution" seems like nothing short of a complete disaster waiting to happen.

[ghassan karam]

Noo,
It is interesting that you think if a group, any group, has a gripe against a government policy, then that group should take the law into its own hands and create a state within a state. Your argument is so weak anf full of holes that you even felt the need to justify the various scurrilous acts of HA by claiming that this is the way a free market operates. Come on give me a break. Since when is athe free market a point of reference in the bankrupt ideology of backward looking religious dinasauros? How convenient to have forgotten that HA and its allies have been fighting tooth and nail against privatizing telephones and electric utilities in Lebanon on the grounds that free market capitalism is exploitative.
Another thing NOO, the idea of supporting your argument by referencing something that you know nothing about only reveals your ignorance of the subject that you are discussing. A small tidbit that you can use in the future to avoid making a fool of yourself, free markets demand well defined property rights if they are to prosper.

[naja]

Noo,

"While our brave and innocent soldiers were being slaughtered, America was sending us bullets for outdated guns. Nothing more."

Errm, now correct me if I'm wrong, Mr. (Ms?) Hizbollah-defender-in-chief, but whilst I agree that we could have done with more walk than talk from our allies, I didn't see your bearded lot, awash as they are with rockets and assorted weaponry, rushing in to supply our army with much needed ammo. Come to think of it, whilst your beloved Iran was so generously offering anti-aircraft missiles to counter the phantom Israeli threat that HA so kindly kindle (kidnapped soldiers from across the legal border, anyone?) I didn't quite see it proposing anything to counter the very clear and present danger of Fateh el Islam.

And you know what, Noo? that's just the tragedy of it all: you are so bloody obsessed with Israel that you spend your time looking out for F16s in the sky, instead of realising what crimes are being committed around you in the name of the struggle against those very same F16s.

Frankly, Noo, in times of need such as these, I'll take the limited Western aid, because if it comes down to conditional support that would pit capitalism and rock-and-roll against wall-to-wall muezzin prayers, I'll take Wall Street and the Rolling Stones any day.

Oh and, BV - "naja, Do you honestly believe that Hezb will "put its weapons at the disposal of the Lebanese Army" ???"

Do I sound like I believe in Santa?

[chris]

'Let them have their own country in the Bekaa and the South. Seriously. I'm all for partition'

Bad Vibel are u mad? What makes u think all the villages in the Bekaa want to be part of this new state? Not every village in the Bekaa is Shia, nor do all support Hizbullah. The government has ignored the Bekaa for 40 years, both Muslim and Christian. Poor Electricity, poor roads, the list goes on - maybe if the Bekaa weren't so neglected, we'd have more nationalistic citizens........... and don't ever forget, its all about money

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm not mad. The people need to start demanding better. If there are so many people in the Bekaa and the South unhappy with Hezbollah, maybe they should do something about it...

[chris]

Bad Vilbel - Do something about it? What do u suggest they do? Threaten them? You're joking aren't you?

It's easy for people to make comments on the net without knowing what's happening on the ground. My village is a completely Christian village in Hizbullah heartland. Peaceful co-oexistence has been a way of life for many years. Hizbullah has not threatened our village in the past, and it's not likely to in the future (and I note I am not a supporter). However, with rising extremism, who knows.

You suggest people demand better - don't you forget we are talking about Lebanon? It's all about wasta and money - please don't confuse yourself that Lebanon is a democracy. The government doesn't even invest in basic infrastructure the North Bekaa, do you think people are going to hit the streets to make noise about their demands.

Have you ever driven the highway (haram if we can call it that) between Baalbeck and the Hermel? You're lucky if you car arrives with only minor damage. And what about the extensive electricity rationing (that I note only Christians and some Muslims pay for - for free if you are with Hizbullah).

The government's neglect of the Bekaa led to Hizbullah taking over. They give money to the poor - to people who cannot eat - so who do u expect them to support? The government?

People should stop thinking Lebanon means Beirut. The government should invest in the entire country.

[Shunkleash]

Chris has a point maybe he should take it up with his ombudsman. Blame the government for what happens in the Bekaa but continue to do nothing for yourselves. FOR EXAMPLE...STOP TAKING HIZBTEEZEE HANDOUTS!!! stop selling yourselves cheap.

I wish to VENT on a nother topic!!

Im still in shock so forgive me if i ramble but did anyone else hear weeping willow publicly applaud the army over its very tight nooseed victory at the camp and then whisper the name of Hizbteezee in the same sentence. I have in the past given this little faggott some room to breath and copious amounts of "second chance tonic" but after yesterday...fuck him! He and his paymaster can screw themselves.

How is it STILL POSSIBLE that even after EVERYTHING THAT HAS HAPPENED over the last 12 months, Israel bombing us to shit because that cunt Nasrallah had a fantasy date with the Mahdi, Syria sending in terrorists to kill and maim us directly causing the death 158 lebanese soldiers and many other citizens that this ibn gahba, this ibn sharmoota, can turn face and praise the hizbteezee faux resistance and equate it to what the soldiers went through. I mean WHAT THE HELL!!!! Where is the god damn outcry at this absolute crock of shit that a supposedly pro western, libertarian, free wheeling, independence minded PM has just spilled. It was enough that he supported the HA over the human rights report (I thought those comments HAD to be strategic) but this takes the cake.

Sorry folks, but this confirms it and a bloody SOMBRERO OFF to Josey Wales for being spot on....they are all...EVERY LAST ONE...usleless money hungry opportunists who need to be disposed of with extreme prejudice.

If it can't be done then kiss your KIS goodbye

Ladies and Gentlemen...Shunkleash has left the building

Ayesh Lubnan y'all

[Bad Vilbel]

Cris,

I don't mean to sound flippant in my posts. I don't know how long you've been reading this blog, but if it's for any length of time, you probably know that I don't run around calling for extreme measures, partition, random revolutions, and that I try to make civil and logical arguments.

However, having said that, I have also contantly harped on the Lebanese people (or sheeple) who are content to let others make decisions for them, and run their lives. People who do not bother to hold their government accountable and who prefer to raise their arms in the air and go "There's nothing we can do."

The truth is, as long as people are not willing to try, there will be no hope. There would have been no French revolution, no American revolution, no Democracy anywhere in the world, if people always took the safe way, and shirked away from the odds. French peasants, American farmers, etc. were always outgunned and oppressed. They didn't rise up thinking "we have a sure win". They rose up AGAINST the odds.
Even our own people, back in 2005, rose up against the Syrian occupation, in a peaceful manner, and managed to cow a much more powerful and heavily armed Syrian force into withdrawing.

Is it easy? Of course not. Nothing worth doing ever is. Are you happy living under Hezbollah yoke today? Because it's "peaceful coexistence" and because they take better care of you than the central government of Beirut? If you are, then you should have no problem living in the new partitioned state of Hezbistan. If, on the other hand, you prefer to belong to a united Lebanon. If you prefer answering to the Beirut government, despite its incompetence and neglect, then by all means, let your Hezbollah oppressor know. Stand up to them. And yes, I know it's not easy, and yes, I know you might get shot, murdered, tortured or arrested. That is the price for freedom in every revolution, every quest for independence and every quest to self-determination that peoples throughout the world have experienced during history. Don't expect to get Freedom handed to you on a silver platter. And if you're not willing to do something about it, if you prefer keeping your head down, not rocking the boat, choosing the safe route, that's also understandable. But in that case, I don't want to hear whining and complaining about how awful your lot is.

Anytime people have chosen the safer easier way, they have been oppressed and subjugated and enslaved. And in the end, no one has ever come to liberate them or hand them their freedom. NOT IN ANY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. In the end, as powerless as they may be, it's always the PEOPLE that have to do something to change their lot in life.

[ghassan karam]

Shunkleash,
I do not want you to think that you are the only one who has had enough . I amongst a few others have been expressing disgust with the traditional leadership on both sides of the aisle but I have also agred to hold my nose and offer support to March 14 over HA and its allies in the hope that March 14 might be more inclined to move the state in the direction of modernity and democracy. Having said that let me add immediately that Saniora as we have stated on many an occasion is a sorry excuse for a PM. He simply does not have what it takes to lead us to the "promised Land" of individual liberty and freedom. Definitely the same holds true for the neophyte Sa'ad Hariri. He is simply clueless and furthermore suffers of an extraordinary conflict of interest, all the family treasures are invested in Saudi Arabia, that bastion of democracy.
I am so glad that Naher El Bared is over and normally I would not wish to rain on anyones parade but have we conveniently forgotten that the Naher El Bared camp was simply one island in an archipellago of illegal mini states that dot the country and I do not mean the other 12 refugee camps only. Idare the Lebanese army to enter Jezzine, the "security square" of the Dahieh among other areas in HAstan. I will reserve my champagne for the time that the Lebanese government has a monopoly of power over all the land. This dream of mine will not come true during my lifetime unless we have the foresight to change all the current politicos by fresh Lebanese faces who will act only to promote and defend the national interest. We need a leadership that has the courage to call things by their names and is not constantly taking positions that are diametrically opposite.

[Solomon2]

Saniora as we have stated on many an occasion is a sorry excuse for a PM. He simply does not have what it takes to lead us to the "promised Land" of individual liberty and freedom.

If everyone felt sure that Saniora could do what you say, wouldn't Syria/Hezb/Iran be tempted to knock him off? In my opinion, Lebanese are immersed in a complicated game of who-will-betray-whom. Perhaps if you develop a mass "people-power" base outside the traditional leadership - yes, even Lebanese living abroad - Lebanese will have a back-stop in case your top leaders get popped off. That was what saved the Phillipines in the 1980s from Marcos' misrule, the fact that after killing his chief opponent the people rallied en masse to kick him out and install Marcos' dead enemy's wife as the new president.

[ghassan karam]

Solomon2,
Your reading of the Lebanese people is often accurate and this time is no exception. So far Lebanon has failed to develop the people power needed to keep politicians honest. Funny thing happened in 2005, many /most/all of the old rascals were elected again and I imagine many will be reelected whenever the next elections round is held.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ah yes, excellent comment, Solomon.

That was my entire point to Cris, in my earlier comment, about this every so illusive "people power".

[chris]

I would like to state that at no point did I comment that the people in our village recieve Hizbullah handouts - we don't - we are a Christian village that is self sufficient - we do not sell ourselves cheap! We are not looked after by the Kate eb, Ouwat or anyone else for that matter.

Bad Vilbel - I have been reading the blog for a long time and understand and enjoy reading your views. However I did not state that Hizbullah takes care of us - on the contrary, they take care of those around us and leave us be, because we are Christians.

Once again many of you find it easy to carry on about having guts, standing up for what you belive in etc etc - it's unfortunate you don't really know what's happening on the ground. I won't try and argue with you all. You are all right, that is the way revolutions start, but people are more concerned about putting food on their plates at the moment, and paying the (overpriced) bills.

[Solomon2]

many of you find it easy to carry on about having guts, standing up for what you belive in etc etc - it's unfortunate you don't really know what's happening on the ground.

I am keenly aware that there is a difference, yes. That's why I urge the expatriate community to speak up and organize on behalf of their oppressed compatriots.

But there's something more I'd like to understand, Chris. What are these "overpriced bills" you write of for? Are they for products and services provided by the people in your village, or are they from outside the immediate area? What makes them "overpriced"?

[Battal Agha]

AK, Fubar, BV, Ghassan K, Solomon2, JW, naja etc you are all a wonderful group. Your comments are so much to the point. I am really an assiduous reader of this blog and the comments. Keep up the good work and good luck