From Beirut to the Beltway

The hidden republic

Today was the 29th anniversary of the "disappearance" of Imam Moussa as-Sadr. Hizbullah and Amal organized marches and ceremonies. No Libyan flags were burned.

The anniversary coincided with the birthday of the original hidden Imam, al-Mahdi, may Hizbullah's god speed up his return from occultation to rid us of the fake ones who stole his hidden powers.

Meanwhile, the birth of Hizbullah's hidden republic is upon us. What Rice erroneously saw as a the birth pangs of the new Middle East last summer, may turn out to be the birth pangs of the Islamic republic in Lebanon or parts of Lebanon.

It's funny how people in the region often do exactly what they accuse foreign conspirators of trying to do. In the case of Lebanon, Hizbullah and their leftist sympathizers have made permanent slogans out of alleged foreign plots to partition the region into sectarian cantons to "suit Israel". In reality, however, we see them planning (some unwittingly) similar partitions should their political opponents dare go by the constitution to legally elect a president.

Nabih Berri is a great example of a politician who has convinced himself he is doing the right thing (Aoun is another). Berri, who had sent "questions" to Condoleezza Rice a while ago, received answers in the form of a reminder through the US ambassador that Lebanon is expected to elect a president or it will be in violation of UNSC 1559.  The US answer drove Berri up the wall, who saw it as a "step backwards". Berri leaked his dismay a few newspapers, and then broadcasted them over loud speakers during Sadr's anniversary commemoration in Baalbeck on Friday.

After attacking the US (and US aid to Lebanon), the Lebanese government and its allies, and accusing the latter of shutting down parliament, Berri, or the mailbox, as Jumblatt called him, laid out a new conditional, "all Lebanese initiative". He said if March 14 accepted the two-third rule to elect a consensus president, he would launch consultations to find that candidate, promising to forget about a national unity government to precede the election of the new president, which has been a Hizbullah condition.

Berri's initiative was coupled with a warning. A great evil will befall the country in the last ten days of Lahoud's term if March 14 did what the constitution says it can do and elected a president without Berri calling parliament into session. The "speaker" said many are "honing their knives" for this great evil, hinting that a civil war is a possibility.

We know a lot about this great evil that the parliament's speaker is apparently privy to, or to be more exact, party to. Berri's own Amal has been waging intermittent street warfare in religiously mixed areas in Beirut. His pals have been clearing the scene for an escalatory move for quite some time. Berri can boast that his latest initiative is "Lebanese" and not backed by Saudi Arabia or the Arab League, but the truth of the matter is that the Saudis backed away after being threatened by the Assad regime. An LBC report today quoted security sources as saying a group was preparing a car bomb attack on the Saudi embassy, and another one targeting the Saudi ambassador's convoy. The ambassador has now fled the country. EU countries have already been shown what can happen to their troops. The Lebanese army has been kept busy with Fatah al-Islam, and will probably split if asked to stop this evil.

We also know that Hizbullah has been monitoring the airport road for a while now, and it is said, the country's communications networks. Al-Shiraa reported last week that several apartments in Beirut were turned into listening stations for the Iran-backed militia, which is monitoring cell phone and internet communications. The Nasrallah Security Agency is actively clearing the ground for Berri's "great evil" to terrorize and possibly partition the country.

I hate to quote him, but this blabbering idiot often slips when he talks, revealing the sick planning of his bedfellows. Speaking to a stunned Marcel Ghanem Thursday night, Suleiman Franjieh said he has the "theory" that a war in Lebanon is easy to trigger, and that all you need to do is kill a leader.

We also know from an LBC report Friday night, that Hizbullah has been training SSNP and other militias in a camp in the Bekaa.

The opposition's plan of attack should March 14 elect a president seems to also include a take over of certain ministries (which has started, some of the Shia ministers are back to "run the affairs" of their ministries), electing a second president, a second government, a military coup, storming the Serail, civil war, you name it.

It is not clear what, exactly they will or can do, given that any step they take will pit them against the entire international community, minus Syria, Iran, Qatar and Libya. But evil it is.

The Metn by-elections may have weakened Aoun's grip over the Maronites, rendering Aoun a bit useless, and the Christian participation in the plot to destroy the government even more questionable. For that, lackeys such as Franjieh have selling their "efforts" as a battle to restore Christian rights allegedly lost after the Taef agreement. During his LBC interview, Franjieh said Rafik Hariri was either a liar or a traitor, and described the Taef constitution as one that took from Christian rights and gave to the Hariri family, i.e. the Sunnis. For him, the battle is about Maronite rights vs. Sunni hegemony. Unfortunately for him, projecting this as a battle for Christian rights did not convince the majority of Christian voters during the Metn elections. Franjieh's interview was one example of a mad logic that could kill an entire community, especially the part where Syria was presented as a guarantor of Christian rights in the country.

While the Christians in the pro-Syrian camp are selling their anti-state crusade as an attempt to give the Maronite presidency the powers they said it lost at the end of the war, and hinting that another war may be needed to restore them, the Hizbullah camp is not taking any chances. Their project is moving forward, and if their new friends in Amal and the FPM abandon or fail them, they will be ready to launch their own republic. They weren't kidding when they said they would never give up their weapons.

There have been numerous reports in the media, and some reported by the minister of communications, about the building of a communications infrastructure covering the south, Bekaa, southern suburb and parts of the occupied downtown Beirut. Unconfirmed reports that I received say that a power plant is being built in the suburb to supply the illegally built and rebuilt structures with Hizbullah-subsidized power.

For that, Hizbullah's project seems long term and long-winded, and is independent of its allies' short-term plans. Just watch their euphoria over the election of Gul in Turkey. I wonder if Aoun shared that excitement. But then, when Aoun warns of partition, he probably knows that his partners in "understanding" are close to drawing the border of the new Shia state should they feel that Christians and Sunnis have turned against them and their weapons, or failed to support their mission. The March 14 website has a report citing British intelligence, claiming the new Hizbullah state would include parts of the south and much of the Bekaa, excluding the area under UNFIL control or any area close to the Israeli border. Forming a state that has no borders with Israel reportedly followed an agreement with Iran and "advice" from the Syrian regime in order to keep the new state "viable". 

The above fits well with earlier reports that Hizbullah is buying land in Christian areas east of Jezzine and north of the Litani river, and using it to store weapons and build military bases. Some of the rockets, al-Watan al-Arabi reported last week, are long range missiles with chemical warheads, supplied by Iran. The area near Jezzine north of the Litani has already been classified as military by Hizbullah, and journalists are prohibited from entering it. Last week, al-Shiraa reported land purchases in Hermel in the Bekaa, where shelters and underground tunnels are reportedly being built, connecting the Bekaa to Syria.

For those who still think Hizbullah's rockets are here to fight Israel alone, think again. These areas would border UN-controlled Lebanon, a state Hizbullah would be at "civil" war with when the secession is complete and the hidden republic is born. And many in this new republic are ready to embrace their new nationality: they have been farmed to resist anything alien to Hizbullah's rule, and to distrust the "Zionist" Lebanese government that they were told want them dead.

It's hard not to see the country headed for a war of some sort, or some form of partition. The Lebanese army was dealt a blow with the Nahr el Bared episode, and with the nomination by Lahoud of General Suleiman, which has tarnished the image of the country's military institution.  March 14 may not survive this one, unless the EU and the US, and the Saudis, throw their military weight to stop the evil at its roots.

This will be one bloody fall, hopefully one that won't lead to the outing of the hidden republic.

Back soon

I apologize for not posting anything lately. We are supposedly on vacation in the land of do as you please, but things have not been going as smoothly as we had hoped. All is better now, and I just got a dialup connection (akhhh). Lots is happening here, as you probably know. The word on everyone's lips is "partition", as in partitioning the country. Driving around today, I wondered how on earth could anyone think about partitioning this mess. It's just another bluff, a la "divine victory". Speaking of victory, the one poster that rules them all on the road from the airport this time around is the one with "the age of victory is upon us". It's almost funny, if you can stop yourself from vomiting in your mouth every time you see the bearded one saluting the "honorable" farmed masses. Nasrallah is over-enjoying his 5 minutes of historical relevance.

Needless to say, nobody outside the circle of hell and folly that Hizbullah is trying to expand cares about this alleged victory. It doesn't factor into the daily lives of the majority of "citizens" who prefer to focus on matters like, er,  putting food on the table. Food, last I checked, is not being dropped by flying Iranian engines or being smuggled on board of trucks through the Syrian border. No new government, no whole country, they threaten. Tell you what, I am not known to be an optimist, but Nasrallah can bark all he wants. This country and the people who keep it running despite the despicable occupation of downtown Beirut, are not going to let him write the program and direct it. His desperate attempt to come across as a living legend is comical, and not impressing those young men and women who make this country look like the jewel everyone likes. So partition yourself, Nasrallah, and throw the bits and pieces to the lions next door.

Anyway, I hope I am not proven wrong. I didn't say the mood wasn't gloomy. But something has to be said about the resilience that is in this city. Not everyone wants to die Hizbullah style. Not everyone is happy feasting on bland oranges. Life always beats death, and evolution favors those with the desire to live.

Thank you all for reading and keeping this 2-year old blog alive. I hope to write more soon.

Berri and the pirate of March 14

According to pro-Assad daily al-Akhbar, Berri has three questions for Condoleeza Rice:

1-    What is the US position on the quorum needed to vote for a president, and will the US support the 50% plus 1 option (absolute majority)?
2-    What is the US position on amending article 49 of the constitution?
3-    Does the US support a consensus president or a president who supports a certain party?

In her free time, Rice has nothing better to do than to answer stupid questions by the man who calls himself the guardian of the Lebanese constitution. To his credit, it sounds like he is relaying questions that originated in Damascus, and not the halls of the parliament he keeps locked.

If I were Rice, I would ask Berri to convene parliament and get his answers from the deputies, who are the only ones with authority to decide on the identity of the next president, let alone how many deputies are needed to fill an electoral session.

But then, Berri won't have it. According to As-Safir, he has made it known during consultations with his "opposition" allies that he will be "the most intransigent in the history of the Lebanese republic, and maybe (the majority) will miss my tolerance of them in the past stage. If the information is correct that they will hold a session with a quorum of half plus 1, they will see a new Nabih Berri while they drag the country to a new political phase and I will let the events speak for themselves".

وعلم ان قيادات المعارضة باشرت في الأيام الأخيرة عقد سلسلة اجتماعات تشاورية، بدأت تدرس فيها كل الاحتمالات بالتشاور مع رئيس الجمهورية اميل لحود ورئيس المجلس النيابي نبيه بري، الذي أعطى تعليمات واضحة لممثليه في الاجتماعات مفادها "ليعلم الجميع أنني سأكون الأكثر تصلبا في تاريخ الجمهورية اللبنانية وربما سيترحمون (الأكثرية) على كل تسامحي معهم في المرحلة الماضية. اذا صحّت المعلومات بأنهم سيعقدون جلسة بنصاب النصف زائدا واحدا، سيتعرفون على نبيه بري جديد وهم يجرّون بذلك البلد الى مرحلة سياسية جديدة وسأترك الوقائع تتحدث عن نفسها لاحقا".

Al-Akhbar quoted Berri as saying that a president elected by an absolute majority would be a "pirate imposing his evil on others".

قال قطب معارض ل"الأخبار" إنّ الموالاة، من خلال ما يصدر عن أركانها من مواقف، تبدو متّجهة الى انتخاب رئيس بالأكثرية المطلقة، وسيكون هذا الرئيس "رئيساً قرصاناً يفرض شرّه على الآخرين"

Well then, why is Berri so concerned about the US position if he has plans to unleash his Dr. Jekyl (or shall we call him Mr. X) on his fellow deputies if they don't agree with his Syrian master's vision for the country?

Speaking of the master, and after weeks of killing security dogs belonging to March 14 figures, Assad's men are now reportedly jamming cell phone communications around the residences of certain March 14 figures, especially before planned meetings. The jamming is similar to what took place before the killing of Hariri and Eido.

كشف عضو كتلة نواب "القوات اللبنانية" أنطوان زهرا عن اجتماع كان سيعقد في منزله للجنة متابعة مصغرة لقوى 14 آذار، لكنه أُرجئ في اللحظة الأخيرة، بعدما تعرّض محيط منزله لتشويش على الاتصالات الهاتفية الخليوية، شبيه للتشويش الذي حصل في منطقة السان جورج عند اغتيال الرئيس الشهيد رفيق الحريري، وفي منطقة المنارة عند اغتيال النائب الشهيد وليد عيدو، الأمر الذي دفع بالمجتمعين الى إلغاء الاجتماع (al-Liwaa)

Berri won't be happy with today's meeting by March 14 Christian leaders, which ended with a declaration that March 14 will have a single candidate, to be revealed at the "right time". 

Hopefully by then, Berri will have received his answers.

On amending the constitution

It does not matter what we think the Patriarch meant or didn't mean regarding amending the constitution to allow for the election of Michel Suleiman. The constitution cannot be amended without this current cabinet and without the endorsement of March 14 deputies.

Many in the March 14 camp have spoken against amending the constitution, meaning it is not something that will happen. Hizbullah and March 8 still cannot do anything without the parliament's majority, which, despite the paralysis imposed by Nabih Berri and Emile Lahoud, still owns a major part of the vote for the new president. Note how Hizbullah is still demanding a "national unity government" even "if it is half an hour before the presidential election". Hizbullah knows the only way to impose the "March 8" agenda is through a coup (in the form of a military government), civil war, or more Syrian terror.

Here's what the constitution says about amending the constitution! In short, it cannot be done without a draft law submitted by the cabinet. It also cannot be discussed or vote on "except when a majority of two thirds of the members lawfully composing the Chamber are present."

Article 76 [Proposal]
The constitution may be revised upon the proposal of the President of the Republic. In such a case the Government submits a draft law to the Chamber of Deputies.

Article 77 [Request]
The constitution may also be revised upon the request of the Chamber of Deputies. In this case the following procedures are to be observed:
During an ordinary session and at the request of at least ten of its members, the Chamber of Deputies may recommend, by a majority of two thirds of the total members lawfully composing the Chamber, the revision of the constitution.
However, the articles and the questions referred to in the recommendation must be clearly defined and specified. The President of the Chamber then transmits the recommendation to the Government requesting it to prepare a draft law relating thereto. If the Government approves the recommendation of the Chamber by a majority of two thirds, it must prepare the draft amendment and submit it to the Chamber within four months; it it does not agree, it shall return the Decision to the Chamber for reconsideration. If the Chamber insists upon the necessity of the amendment by a majority of three fourths of the total members lawfully composing the Chamber, the President of the Republic has then either to accede to the Chamber's recommendation or to ask the Council of Ministers to dissolve the Chamber and to hold new elections within three months. If the new Chamber insists on the necessity of amending the constitution, the Government must yield and submit the draft amendment within four months.

Article 78 [Priority]
When a draft law dealing with a constitutional amendment is submitted to the Chamber, it must confine itself to its discussion before any other work until a final vote is taken. It may discuss and vote only on articles and questions clearly enumerated and defined in the draft submitted to it.

Article 79 [Majority, Promulgation]
(1) When a draft law dealing with a constitutional amendment is submitted to the Chamber, it cannot discuss it or vote upon it except when a majority of two thirds of the members lawfully composing the Chamber are present. Voting is by the same majority.
(2) The President of the Republic is required to promulgate the law of the constitutional amendment under the same conditions and in the same form as ordinary laws. He has the right, within the period established for the promulgation, to ask the Chamber to reconsider the draft, after consultation with the council of Ministers, in which case the vote is by a majority of two thirds.

Dying for Iran

This is for Julia Boutros. Maybe she can sing this.

قال مراسل التلفزيون الإيراني الذي أجرى حوارًا مطولا مع أمين عام حزب الله اللبناني إن قسما من هذا الحوار حذفه مقص الرقيب قائلا: ان هذا القسم لم يبث من التلفزيون الايراني.
و قال بيجن نوباوة الذي كان يتحدث في مركز سيدالشهداء الثقافي: اعلن السيد حسن نصرالله في هذا القسم المحذوف " اننا مستعدون لنتحول الى اوصال متقطعة كي تبقى ايران عزيزة، حيث اذا كانت ايران عزيزة نحن ايضا نكون اعزاء. فانني جندي صغير للامام الخامنئي. فقد وقف في مارون الرأس 40 عنصرا من قوات حزب الله امام فرقة من الكيان الصهيوني لكن 13 منهم استشهدوا فقط. فقد تحرك شباب حزب الله باسم الامام الخميني و استعانوا بالامام الحسين و كانت تحياتهم للشعب الايراني".   (Elaph)

The following is from a censored part of an interview Hassan Nasrallah gave to Iranian TV, as quoted by the reporter who conducted the interview:

We are ready to become dismembered limbs to keep Iran strong and dignified, for we are strong if Iran is strong.  I am but a small soldier for Imam Khamenei. In Maroun al-Ras, 40 members from the Hizbullah forces stood against a contingent from the Zionist entity, and only 13 of them were martyred. The youth of Hizbullah acted in the name of Imam Khomeini and invoked Imam Hussein, and saluted the Iranian people.

If Julia won't adapt the above into a music video, in which children morph into fighters to the beat and prose of Nasrallah, maybe Michel Aoun can write it into his "understanding".

(h/t Tony)

Assad's black hole

March 14 is in a pickle. How do you put Suleiman in his place without damaging the army and turning it against you? And how do you criticize the commander of the army that is waging a seemingly protracted war against terrorists? After Alloush's lone criticism of the army commander, Saad Hariri called Suleiman to express the Future Movement's "trust" in the army and to distance himself from Alloush's views. Now is not the time to be on the army's bad side, thought Hariri. Let's not fall into that trap. But it might be too late. 

For suddenly, the Nahr El Bared war seems like one long electoral campaign.

March 14 must be wondering how they missed the Suleiman card, or how they lived in denial about its eventual use.

After bashing the United States' military aid, which he said wasn't enough, and exonerating his Syrian "brothers" from killing his own soldiers, Suleiman joined the cast of Nasrallah's latest one-man show. The crowds who watched the divine victor perform his resistance routine were left to wonder about the "great surprise" he allegedly has in store for the Israeli army. A surprise that could change the course of the war and the region, he claimed. I personally don't care about Nasrallah's big or small war toys. The man wants you to believe he is still in the anti-Israel business while he occupies downtown Beirut and supports terrorists killing Lebanese politicians, soldiers and journalists.  His real "surprise", if one can call it that, is including the Lebanese army in his futuristic war scenario. After Suleiman's complaint that his army lacks equipment, Hizbullah can now be the army's fighting arm, a la Basij.

"[I promise you a big surprise, etc.] ... Yesterday we heard the army commander say that [the army only received]  promises and a few ammunitions, which he paid for with Lebanese money. The Lebanese army is not allowed to arm before it removes from its national creed that Israel is an enemy. America will never allow anyone to aid the Lebanese army to defend Lebanon. But the resistance is by the Lebanese army's side, and with them the people of Lebanon..."

أريد أن اختم بوعد واضح افهموه، حربا نفسيه ولكن الحرب النفسية الصادقة، إذا فكرتم بأن تعتدوا على لبنان، وأنا لا أنصحكم بذلك، إن فكرتم أن تشنوا حربا على لبنان، فأنا لن أعدكم بمفاجآت كتلك التي حصلت وإنما أعدكم بالمفاجأة الكبرى التي يمكن أن تغير مسير الحرب ومصير المنطقة إن شاء الله، أنا بهذا الالتزام ارتب مسؤولية كبيرة علي وعلى المقاومة وهذا الالتزام هو التزام فعلي، أنا لا أتحدث عن شيء يرتبط بالمستقبل وعليهم هم ان يحللوا، لن أقول لكم ولن أقول لهم، لأنني لو قلت لن تبقى مفاجأة، أنا احمل مع المقاومة هذا الالتزام من اجل حماية لبنان، وإذا حصلت الحرب يجب ان نكون جاهزين لها في المقاومة في الشعب، في الجيش في الدولة، أمس سمعنا قائد الجيش اللبناني يقول ان كل ما قدم هو وعود وكلام وبعض الذخائر، التي دفع ثمنها من أموال اللبنانيين، ممنوع تسليح وتجهيز الجيش اللبناني قبل ان يشطب من عقيدته الوطنية أن إسرائيل عدو، أميركا لن تعطي ولن تسمح لأحد أن يعطي الجيش اللبناني ما يمكنه من الدفاع عن لبنان، ولكن المقاومة إلى جانب الجيش اللبناني الوطني، ومعهم شعب لبنان، سيواجهون هذا التحدي وان شاء الله كما انتصرنا في أيار 2000 وآب 2006، احذرهم وانصحهم هناك في لبنان مقاومة، وجيش وشعب، وجزء من امة تأبى الضيم، ترفض الذل، لا تخاف إلا من الله ولا تركع إلا لله، تقاتل مستعدة للتضحية، وستنتصر الانتصار التاريخي الحاسم إن شاء الله، أيها الإخوة والأخوات، مجددا بالتوكل على الله بمعرفتي بكم وبهذا الشعب، وبمجاهدي هذه المقاومة، وبهذا العدو الجبان الذليل، الذي هو اوهن من بيت العنكبوت، كما وعدتكم بالنصر دائما أعدكم بالنصر مجددا، والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته.

Suleiman has made it easier for Nasrallah to justify the existence of his militia and talk about the army as a weak institution that is not allowed to arm and defend the country. Following the divine victor's speech, the army commander did not issue any statement asking Nasrallah to consider lending his surprise-weapon to save the lives of soldiers, or redraw the red line Hizbullah drew around the camp after the cold-blooded massacre of tens of soldiers. All that Suleiman did to strengthen an army he says is under-equipped was obfuscate the identity of the enemy and give Nasrallah's ammunition in his struggle for relevance.

What March 14 leaders do not dare say in the open about the Hizbullah-Suleiman connection will cost them the presidency. Sadly, saying it like it may have just become unaffordable, and risks splitting the only institution that people have been told to accept unconditionally. In a way, the media blackout that envelops the army leadership's role in politics has been used to keep the army as a safety valve for the country. But this lack of transparency and accountability has become a recipe for disaster. That's how deep the Assad regime had penetrated the very fabric of Lebanese institutions. So deep that right now, at the foreign ministry, a minister that supposedly resigned is back to spy on diplomatic correspondence regarding the Hariri tribunal. 

Independence, after it defied the orders of Lahoud and changed the hearts of his soldiers on March 14, is suddenly very far away.

Army commander criticised for calling Bashar Assad

Suleiman's speech to army graduates, in which he exonerated Syrian intelligence from arming Fatah al-Islam, was met with silence in Lebanese political circles. Mustapha Alloush, an MP in Hairi parliamentary bloc, broke the silence in an interview with Now Lebanon, revealing that the army commander called Bashar Assad-- something that was not reported in the media.

Alloush criticized Suleiman's assertion that Fatah al-Islam was neither supported by Syrian intelligence nor the Lebanese government. He said linking the terrorist group to the government does not need a denial, especially not by the army which acted on an order from the government.

Alloush said that Fatah al-Islam's link to al-Qaeda was never denied by the government. "Here I ask the army commander, who sent Shaker al-Absi to Lebanon, and how did the pro-Syrian Fatah Intifada hand over its positions to Fatah al-Islam without a fight?"

Alloush revealed – and I could not find this in any online version of Suleiman's speech—that the army commander said he contacted Bashar Assad. Alloush does not explain the context of the call, so I will assume that it was to inquire about the connection between Syrian intelligence and the Fatah al-Islam group. Note that it has been reported before that Suleiman sent pro-Syrian Islamist Fathi Yakan to Syria during the army's negotiations with the Fatah al-Islam terrorists.

Alloush said he didn't understand how the army commander could contact another state's president without going through his government first. "If true," Alloush said, it would be "strange and undemocratic".

Alloush added that Suleiman should quit delivering advice to politicians as his post is not political. 'Whether he resigns or not is up to him,… but he has to assume his responsibilities as long as the political authority in the country has charged him with these responsibilities. He should not say that he is staying in his position. There is a tradition in Lebanon that army commanders change with the president, and… I think this must continue".

It seems that March 14 is increasingly uncomfortable with Suleiman's entry into the political scene. Suleiman's visit to the Patriarch last week was given a lot of interpretations. One is that he's eyeing the presidency, until it emerged today that he wouldn't mind becoming an interim prime minister.

Finally, Suleiman has complained about the nature of military aid the army has received, saying it was mostly promises and ammunition. "It's as if they are telling us to die first and support will come later, we are currently looking for sources to acquire weapons".

Considering that most of this allegedly useless aid came from the US, I don't think Suleiman's exoneration of Syrian intelligence will encourage the Americans to send him more weapons. Especially not when he's aspiring to become another Michel Aoun, minus a "liberation war". 

Excerpt from Alloush's interview with Now Lebanon follows:

واضاف علوش: "قائد الجيش قال انه اتصل بالرئيس السوري بشار الاسد، وانا لست افهم ايضاً كيف يتصل موظف من الفئة الاولى بدولة اخرى حتى لو كان قائداً للجيش برئيس دولة ثانية دون الرجوع الى حكومته، هذه مسألة مستغربة وخارجة عن الاطار الديمقراطي ولا اعتقد انها اذا كانت صحيحة في موقعها. السؤال يجب ان يوجه مباشرة الى السلطات السورية لماذا تم اطلاق العبسي مع انه مطلوب بجريمة اغتيال في الاردن؟ ولماذا تم توجيهه بعيد القرار 1559 الى لبنان لمواجهة تداعياته كما صرح العبسي نفسه الى صحيفة "الحياة"؟ الكل يعرف ان السجون السورية لا تطلق بسهولة المعتقلين لديها".
وعلّق علوش على تمني قائد الجيش ان يلهم الله الحكمة لزعماء هذا الوطن المعذب، فقال: "لا اظن ان الموقع الذي يشغله العماد سليمان له اي دور سياسي ليوجه هكذا رسائل، ولكن على كل الاحوال نحن موافقون على هذا التوجه ونتمنى على كل الموظفين والمسؤولين الاخذ به".
علوش اكد ان "قرار استقالة العماد سليمان او عدمه يعود له، وطالما صرح بذلك سراً او علناً وتمّ تناقله في وسائل الاعلام، فان هذه المسألة تصبح مؤكدة. ويجب ان يتحمل المسؤوليات طالما ان السلطة السياسية في البلد قد حملته هذه المسؤوليات. ويجب الا يقول العماد سليمان انني باق. على كل هناك تقليد متبع في لبنان وهو تغيير قائد الجيش مع تغيير رئيس الجمهورية - الا في حالات نادرة - وانا اعتقد ان هذا الامر يجب ان يستمر".

Army commander: I will gladly lead a coup

Army commander Michel Suleiman has graciously agreed to head a "transitional government" if Syria and Hizbullah prevent parliament from electing a president.

Army Commander General Michel Suleiman has indicated he would accept to head a transitional government in the event MPs are unable to choose the next president before the end of President Emile Lahoud's term in office in November, provided all sides accept his nomination. Former Defense Minister Albert Mansour, told The Daily Star Monday that he has put the idea of heading a transitional government personally to Suleiman, who agreed to head such a government in the event a new president is not agreed upon. "Such a government would be in keeping with established practice, which is for a president to hand over power to a Maronite prime minister, it happened twice before," Mansour said.

Mansour said being appointed prime minister of a transitional government would allow Suleiman to bypass constitutional requirements that prevent grade-one civil servants like Suleiman from being elected to the presidency while still in their post or within two years of their resignation. (Daily Star)

Suleiman started his "coup campaign" with a visit to the patriarch last week, and with an announcement on Monday clearing Syrian intelligence of any involvement in the Nahr El Bared camp.

Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman on Monday denied charges that Fatah al-Islam terrorists are linked to Syria or to factions represented in the Lebanese government.

Fatah al-Islam, Suleiman said, "is not sponsored by Syrian intelligence, nor it is backed by Lebanese government circles. It is a branch for al-Qaida which had been planning to use Lebanon and Palestinian camps as safe haven to launch its operations in Lebanon and abroad."

Suleiman, appointed to the post by the Syrian regime, has said on more than one occasion that Lebanon's sole enemy is Israel.

It follows from all this that, if Suleiman is made head of an interim cabinet, he will try to impede the Hariri tribunal and anything he feels could threaten Syrian interests.

By agreeing to this, Suleiman has violated the constitution which stipulates that "should the Presidency become vacant for any reason whatsoever, the Council of Ministers exercises the powers of the President by delegation". Not to mention his violation of his duty as a army commander entrusted with defending the country against any threat regardless of where it came from.

New York Times reporter exposed

The New York Times' shoddy and opinion-based reporting on Lebanon has been exposed by journalist and fellow blogger David Kenner. After reading their reporter's assertions that Aoun's win in the Metn by-election was a "referendum on the March 14 Movement, which has increasingly alienated many Christians" and an alleged consequence of American support, David investigated the sources for these claims. Here's what he came up with:

Bizarrely, [Hassan] Fattah wrote the article from Dubai, and relies primarily on non-Lebanese sources.  His primary source appears to be a Saudi named Turki al-Rasheed, who is quoted extensively, as well as a Jordanian academic.  The only Lebanese sources he cites are Michel Aoun’s nephew Alain, and a Lebanese journalist named Nicola Nassif, who works at the pro-opposition daily al-Akhbar.

However, Nassif does not agree that American influence played a role in Gemayel’s defeat in the Metn by-elections.  In fact, when contacted by NOW Lebanon, Nassif argued the exact opposite.  “I don’t think Gemayel was defeated because the Americans were backing him,” he claimed.  “It’s too much of a simplification to say they led to Gemayel’s defeat.”

[...] Even Nada Bakri, Mr. Fattah’s New York Times colleague who contributed reporting for both articles, disagrees with Fattah’s conclusion that Gemayel was hurt by American support.  “It is true that America and its allies have been losing [elections] in the region more broadly, but I don’t know if this is the case in Lebanon,” Bakri said to NOW Lebanon.  “Christians in Lebanon, and Metn specifically, don’t really dislike America.  It’s more complicated than that.”

After being publicly contradicted by both his Lebanese sources and his own staff, it is unclear on what if any credible basis Fattah is making his arguments.  An e-mail requesting clarification regarding these articles was recently sent to Mr. Fattah, who is apparently on vacation.  For the sake of the New York Times, we can only hope that it is a long one. (Now Lebanon)

Read the whole thing here.

Entry Forbidden. Hizbullah area.

Nasrallah likes to complain about fictitious government plots to dispossess Lebanese Shias. However, the opposite seems to be happening on the ground. The only entities that got dispossessed are rockets (maybe) and Hizbullah fighters (another maybe) in the UN controlled area south of the Litani. North of the Litani river, however, Hizbullah is using Iranian money to buy large tracts of land to settle Shias and build roads connecting the various predominantly Shia areas in the country. Charles Levinson has more. Below is an excerpt from his Sunday Telegraph article.

"Christians and Druze are selling land and moving out, while the Shia are moving in. There is an extraordinary demo-graphic shift taking place," said Edmund Rizk, a Christian MP for the area until 1992.

On a scenic, sparsely populated ridge, the farming village of Chbail was once Christian. Today, the land belongs to a wealthy Shia businessman with alleged ties to Hizbollah. Its new residents are recent Shia transplants from the Hizbollah-controlled south.

Entry to the village is forbidden to outsiders - not by the Lebanese army that technically holds sway here, but by the chabab, the plain-clothed, bearded youths who act as look-outs in Hizbollah territory. "The village is closed for security reasons," said a youth who had recently moved from a Hizbollah-controlled area near the regional capital, Tyre.

Like many neighbouring hamlets, Chbail has steadily decayed ever since civil war broke out in 1975. Fleeing first Palestinian guerrillas, then invading Israeli soldiers, and finally Hizbollah, villagers steadily migrated to seek better lives in Beirut or overseas.

While The Sunday Telegraph was at Chbail's outskirts, a rust-coloured Volvo station wagon rolled in, piled high with wooden building beams. A dozen or so other young men with dirt-caked fingernails came and went freely. On the wadis' western edge, a metal sign strung across an unmarked dirt track erased any doubt about what, or rather who, now lies beyond.

"Entry forbidden. Hizbollah area," the sign read in Arabic. The closure was manned by a pair of teenage gunmen in olive green fatigues, armed with walkie-talkies and AK47s.

The buy-up of land in Chbail and half a dozen Druze and Christian villages is said to be the work of a wealthy Shia businessman, Ali Tajeddine, who made his fortune trading diamonds in Sierra Leone before returning to Lebanon and starting a successful construction company.

Squat and bearded, Mr Tajeddine keeps a Hizbollah charity box in the waiting room of his Tyre office. He is believed to be a major player in Hizbollah's massive reconstruction programme called Jihad al Bina, or the Building Jihad.

During an interview, Mr Tajeddine fidgeted nervously as he denied any connection with Hizbollah. He said his projects at Chbail represent just a fraction of the dozens of developments he is building throughout Lebanon.

But his distinctive arc of land-buys around Hizbollah's new stronghold has triggered alarm among the district's Christian and Druze leaders, who say he is using Iranian funds to buy land from destitute villagers at up to four times the going rate. Druze sheikhs have responded by forbidding the sale of land to Shias and wealthy Christians have been asked to buy property in the area to stem the Shia tide.

In Chbail and two neighbouring Christian villages, Mr Tajeddine has already bought 200-300 acres of land, according to the mayor, Kamil Fares. "There are new people coming," he said. "Shias have moved into apartments belonging to Ali Tajeddine. But we're poor. What can we do?"

In the Druze village of Al Sreiri, the mayor, Hafed Kiwane, told a similar story. "We have nothing here, so it was good to see money coming into the area, but now we fear there are suspicious motives," he said.

Among the Hizbollah settlements is the fledgling village of Ahmediyya, where a billboard in Hebrew warns Israeli invaders: "Do not enter!"

Dozens of housing units have been built here in the past year. A supermarket is open for business, and 10 Shia families have moved in so far. Among them is project foreman Mohammad Atwa, 51. As two men photographed The Sunday Telegraph's car, he said: "The rockets of the resistance showed us there was someone to defend us."

Critics fear that Ahmediyya will further stretch the Shia reach to the north-east, as part of a grand scheme to create a strip of Shia-controlled land connecting the south to Hizbollah's other power centre in Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley.

"It is part of Hizbollah's plan to create a state within a state," said Walid Jumblatt, a Druze leader. He also pointed to the four-lane road being built to connect the Hizbollah stronghold of Nabatieh in the south to the western Bekaa.

Banners openly proclaim the source of the road's funding: "510km of new roads paid for by the Iranian Organization for Sharing in the Building of Lebanon". (Sunday Telegraph)