Assad's black hole

March 14 is in a pickle. How do you put Suleiman in his place without damaging the army and turning it against you? And how do you criticize the commander of the army that is waging a seemingly protracted war against terrorists? After Alloush's lone criticism of the army commander, Saad Hariri called Suleiman to express the Future Movement's "trust" in the army and to distance himself from Alloush's views. Now is not the time to be on the army's bad side, thought Hariri. Let's not fall into that trap. But it might be too late. 

For suddenly, the Nahr El Bared war seems like one long electoral campaign.

March 14 must be wondering how they missed the Suleiman card, or how they lived in denial about its eventual use.

After bashing the United States' military aid, which he said wasn't enough, and exonerating his Syrian "brothers" from killing his own soldiers, Suleiman joined the cast of Nasrallah's latest one-man show. The crowds who watched the divine victor perform his resistance routine were left to wonder about the "great surprise" he allegedly has in store for the Israeli army. A surprise that could change the course of the war and the region, he claimed. I personally don't care about Nasrallah's big or small war toys. The man wants you to believe he is still in the anti-Israel business while he occupies downtown Beirut and supports terrorists killing Lebanese politicians, soldiers and journalists.  His real "surprise", if one can call it that, is including the Lebanese army in his futuristic war scenario. After Suleiman's complaint that his army lacks equipment, Hizbullah can now be the army's fighting arm, a la Basij.

"[I promise you a big surprise, etc.] ... Yesterday we heard the army commander say that [the army only received]  promises and a few ammunitions, which he paid for with Lebanese money. The Lebanese army is not allowed to arm before it removes from its national creed that Israel is an enemy. America will never allow anyone to aid the Lebanese army to defend Lebanon. But the resistance is by the Lebanese army's side, and with them the people of Lebanon..."

أريد أن اختم بوعد واضح افهموه، حربا نفسيه ولكن الحرب النفسية الصادقة، إذا فكرتم بأن تعتدوا على لبنان، وأنا لا أنصحكم بذلك، إن فكرتم أن تشنوا حربا على لبنان، فأنا لن أعدكم بمفاجآت كتلك التي حصلت وإنما أعدكم بالمفاجأة الكبرى التي يمكن أن تغير مسير الحرب ومصير المنطقة إن شاء الله، أنا بهذا الالتزام ارتب مسؤولية كبيرة علي وعلى المقاومة وهذا الالتزام هو التزام فعلي، أنا لا أتحدث عن شيء يرتبط بالمستقبل وعليهم هم ان يحللوا، لن أقول لكم ولن أقول لهم، لأنني لو قلت لن تبقى مفاجأة، أنا احمل مع المقاومة هذا الالتزام من اجل حماية لبنان، وإذا حصلت الحرب يجب ان نكون جاهزين لها في المقاومة في الشعب، في الجيش في الدولة، أمس سمعنا قائد الجيش اللبناني يقول ان كل ما قدم هو وعود وكلام وبعض الذخائر، التي دفع ثمنها من أموال اللبنانيين، ممنوع تسليح وتجهيز الجيش اللبناني قبل ان يشطب من عقيدته الوطنية أن إسرائيل عدو، أميركا لن تعطي ولن تسمح لأحد أن يعطي الجيش اللبناني ما يمكنه من الدفاع عن لبنان، ولكن المقاومة إلى جانب الجيش اللبناني الوطني، ومعهم شعب لبنان، سيواجهون هذا التحدي وان شاء الله كما انتصرنا في أيار 2000 وآب 2006، احذرهم وانصحهم هناك في لبنان مقاومة، وجيش وشعب، وجزء من امة تأبى الضيم، ترفض الذل، لا تخاف إلا من الله ولا تركع إلا لله، تقاتل مستعدة للتضحية، وستنتصر الانتصار التاريخي الحاسم إن شاء الله، أيها الإخوة والأخوات، مجددا بالتوكل على الله بمعرفتي بكم وبهذا الشعب، وبمجاهدي هذه المقاومة، وبهذا العدو الجبان الذليل، الذي هو اوهن من بيت العنكبوت، كما وعدتكم بالنصر دائما أعدكم بالنصر مجددا، والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته.

Suleiman has made it easier for Nasrallah to justify the existence of his militia and talk about the army as a weak institution that is not allowed to arm and defend the country. Following the divine victor's speech, the army commander did not issue any statement asking Nasrallah to consider lending his surprise-weapon to save the lives of soldiers, or redraw the red line Hizbullah drew around the camp after the cold-blooded massacre of tens of soldiers. All that Suleiman did to strengthen an army he says is under-equipped was obfuscate the identity of the enemy and give Nasrallah's ammunition in his struggle for relevance.

What March 14 leaders do not dare say in the open about the Hizbullah-Suleiman connection will cost them the presidency. Sadly, saying it like it may have just become unaffordable, and risks splitting the only institution that people have been told to accept unconditionally. In a way, the media blackout that envelops the army leadership's role in politics has been used to keep the army as a safety valve for the country. But this lack of transparency and accountability has become a recipe for disaster. That's how deep the Assad regime had penetrated the very fabric of Lebanese institutions. So deep that right now, at the foreign ministry, a minister that supposedly resigned is back to spy on diplomatic correspondence regarding the Hariri tribunal. 

Independence, after it defied the orders of Lahoud and changed the hearts of his soldiers on March 14, is suddenly very far away.

Comments

[Riemer Brouwer]

What will be very interesting is to see Aoun's reaction once he finds out that his Hezbollah friends will be supporting Suleiman's run for president.

[Jay]

There's no need for Hezbollah to withdraw its "support" for Aoun because Suleiman is not running for president (at least not yet). The big plan is to block the presidential elections from happening in the first place so that a military coup can take place.

[Jeha - جحا]

Sadly, this is all the result of the brilliant maneuvres by those who claim March 14th, and by the neophyte who is guiding them. They wasted the past two years, thus turning victory into defeat. They would likely waste more time.

I am not sure, however, if the March 8 crowd really thinks it can pulls this off that easily. Even their "side" is too fractious.

[ghassan karam]

The campaign to hand over the reins of the Presidency to Suleiman , as the above excellent analysis by AK documents, is predicated on the inability of the Chamber of Deputies to meet and elect a President on time. This presents March 14 an opportunity to frustrate the Damascus/HA plan by working towards the election of a president on time, with the required two thirds quorum but only simple plurality of the membership. That can be accomplished by finding a candidate whose personal ideas reflect a strong belief in democratic principles,a sovereign and independent state but who is not openly allied with March 14. This idea , in some, form, must succeed because its alternative is either two governments or a Suleiman/as a representative of the cub next door era.

[JoseyWales]

March 14 brought it upon themselves with help by major boob Sfeir:

-By keeping Lahoud and Sleiman

-By not having elections immediately after Pierre Gemayel was killed

-By still welcoming Salloukh to come back, months after his resignation

etc...

They get zero sympathy from me and I am nearing the point of "unreasonableness": I want them gone no matter the cost.

I've had it with Saksoukeh Saad and his "Loobnan", and Saudi sycophant Seniora (whom Michael Young wants back after the election). I've had it with Christian bodies and nobodies who won't sway Sfeir, and run around saying stupid things like "I represent the Christians".

And Riemer, Aoun believing for one second that Hezbo wants him prez is the indubitable proof he is insane.

[ghassan karam]

The war toys of Nasrallah are not to be dismissed kightly especially by the Lebanese. The more armaments HA acquires and the more sophisticated such arms are then the more difficult it will be to implement 1559, 1701 and to establish a truly democratic Lebanon where the central government has a monopoly on power. The stronger and the more sophisticated HA's militia becomes the more likely is HA to pursue its adventures and get the Lebanese into another war not of their choosing. Alas, it does not stop here. It will be impossible for HA not to open a Lebanese front within the same day that a Syrian-Israeli erupts. These bigger and better toys that Nasrallah is bragging about increase HA dependence on Iran/Damascus/weaken further the Lebanese state and embolden Syria in its "negotiations" with Israel. These toys are very destablizing for the idea of a sovereign Lebanese state even more than they are a threat to Israel.

[Habani]

As an Israeli with some liking of Lebanon, If it was to go, G-d forbid, what will take its place? Few not very clever words to the very wise people I read on this and other Leb. blogs.
1)Seems to this simple mind that mister G. Karam knows what he is talking about.
After all the bad mouthing about weapons from the USA. Here is some thing from long personal and close family experience. In city fighting and street fighting the problem is training, not weapons, though weapons count. But the weapons needed are on the world market, no big secrets there. In a funny way one of the problems of the IDF in the last Leb. war was that it was over trained for city fighting. In Gaza and Jenin tanks, Choppers etc are fine but at the end it was, is and will be steet fighting with small weapons and as far as is known when ever Israeli infantry fought Hizb. in built areas at close range they did well. U know what? The Hizb. would have probably done better than the Leb. army in Nahar el Bared camp. So this story of shortage of weapons sound to an Israeli as a prep. for the investigative commity. do you these in Leb. Or something like that. Also interesting idea, Given some money, not much, and will, the Leb. Army or a significant part of it could have got the best training and the best weapons for city-street fighting. Any body saying that the great city fighting soldiers and officers Druz, Sunni, Chrekes and yes some Christians in the IDF are better than these in Lebanon is a racist idiot. Who in Lebanon have had interest in emasculating the Leb. army as far as city and street fighting goes? Do I hear an answer starting with Hiz....".
2) The greatest thing that the Leb. Government did, visa vis Israel, was the creation of two separate and disunited political enteties Lebanon and its Army -good. Against Hizb. -bad. It was the USA by supporting the "good" that saved Lebanon and the Leb. from much, very very much, destruction. When, in the eyes of the USA, Leb. the Leb, army and Hizb. will become one single thing it will be a sad day for Leb., and according to me to Israel too, and a great celebration in Iran and Syria. Thank you for your attention.

[Rami]

Ghassan-

While you are spot on with the bigger picture here, it seems that you are neglecting the details that got us to this point. As much as Nasrallah’s words scare me, they certainly don’t surprise me. The reason? Well its evident in every blog on this website over the past year, that March 14th is a failure, at least politically. They didn’t consolidate their power early on and now we are all paying the price as it falls apart. Lets just look at the latest bombshell: they will lose the presidency, HA will be empowered to keep their weapons, Lebanon again becomes a client of Syria, and March 14th talk of independence and sovereignty is out the window. Because to be independent and sovereign, you have to be able to rule and protect what is yours. And March 14th was never able to do that. We all knew the challenges that we faced, yet we lacked any decisive leaders to confront them effectively and intelligently. Instead we are stuck with ‘jellyfishes’ and rich Aramani-suited posers who are too scared to do their jobs. I think Nasrallah’s speech was the nail in the coffin, so to speak, because our army, despite its current popularity, has been proven to be weak. It ludicrous to think that an army who has spent 2+ months trying to defeat a relatively small militant group isolated in a camp will suddenly be able to defend the country. And we can argue at tandem about who’s fault this is- America, Syria, Iran, Israel, etc-, but I hold March 14 accountable. They were completely aware of the army’s impotency, and did nothing to strengthen it, even though they lobbied for this entity to monopolize power. Now, whether we like it or not, we look like a bunch of ineffectual weaklings- not the type of people you want in power. So maybe Lebanon is not ready to be fully independent at this time, at least that’s what a survey of our political landscape seems to say. And Nasrallah and his posse are playing the pride and honor card, and it will work. Because Israel is everyone’s enemy, and we alone ‘defeated’ it. Because without a resistance you end up sold-out like Egypt or Jordan. Because without our weapons, Lebanon will be a part of Israel. It doesn’t even matter that these scenarios are ridiculous, but that they are believable. And we just LOVE manipulating people using their beliefs…

[Bad Vilbel]

Great analysis Abu Kais! This is exactly the trap that has been laid out for M14 over the past months and that some of us around here pretty much predicted (while others were so confident that M14 WILL get the presidency, right Fubar?)
M14 has fallen into the trap and taken the bait hook, line and sinker, and I for one, share Josey Wales' disgust with M14's ability to turn victory into defeat. Shame on them for wasting the M14, 2005 popular support and turning it into THIS.

For all Aoun's insanity, and Nassrallah's pompous pronouncements, those 2 have basically run circles around the incompetence of Saniora, Saad Hariri, and that idiot Sfeir (for which I have zero respect anymore).

I am not hopeful for the future. We're looking at either a 2 government repeat of 1989 (something that I predicted woudl happen way back when), or an outright pro-Syrian president in Suleiman (which means 6 more years of Lahoud-style obstructionism). Take your pick, and enjoy....

[Rami]

PS- Like Josey was saying, by constantly reaching out to the 'opposition', placing them in important posts, and allowing resigned ministers to "check in", you are just asking to be taken down.

[Macemuscle]

"For suddenly, the Nahr El Bared war seems like one long electoral campaign" - this is consistent with what I had raised in an earlier post. It seems fishy that the campaign would take this long and I'm not convinced that lack of modern equipment is the only reason (of course not taking anything away from the Lebanese Army troops and their dedication and sacrifice - but they are following orders).

I agree with the criticism of Siniora et al. I guess the real question is what could they have done differently, or better yet, what can they do now to salvage the situation???

[ghassan karam]

Rami,
You will not find me disagreeing with you regarding the incompetency of March 14 leadership. I feel certain that if you go into the archives you will find out that I have never ever had any praise for the way that they have conducted themselves, save for an occasional BOO-yah for Jumblatt who arguably is single handedly is responsible for all this mess( His alliance with HA ...). Furthermore you will find out that I have been of the opinion that ultimately HA and its allies will be denied an outright victory and March 14 will prevail. But even if that happened I have usually refered to that as a hollow victory because March 14 is interested in a restoration of the staus quo which I consider to be bankrupt. Yet I would initially prefer a restoration of the status quo under clueless March 14 , spiless Saniora and brainless neophyte Sa'ad to a totally bankrupt authoritarian , undemocratic rule under the aegis of Damascus/Tehran.

Keeping all the above in mind does not mean that we can afford to be reactive. We are in a pickle and we need to device a strategy to get out of this jam. I have not yet found a more effective and a less agreable way out to the plan of making sure that the elections take place on time and that the candidacy of a person who shares the strong belief in the Lebanese project without being directly associated with either political group be advanced. Not to do that will be to destroy the state in an attempt to save it.No one needs that.

[Vox. P.]

Sleiman can't be elected president unless the constitution is modified, and I doubth that either Aoun or Geagea want see him in Baabda. With no Christian cover, he has little chance of being elected.

The Nahr el Bared battle is starting to look like an electoral campaign indeed.

[JoseyWales]

Vox et al,

As much as we all hate it, the constitution is a joke.

Hell, Sfeir just changed it by himself with one statement about the 2/3 election quorum (no one on his side even bothered to fight him or convince him, he just handed Hezbo/Aoun the best card M14 had).

Too late now. The constitution won't stand in the way and M14 deserves to eat crap for not being ready, not having a plan, this late in the game.

They're still waiting for Seniora or Hariri to come out from under King Abdlallah abaya.

Don't get me wrong but should one expect, nature and politics abhor a vacuum.

[ghassan karam]

Josey,
The Lebanese constitution is not very clear on the exact procedure that is to be followed in the election of a president. But then no constitution is ever meant to spell out in detail every possible set of circumstances that might arise. That is the major justification for the Constitutional Council that is expected to address these issues and resolve them. Unfortunately our pols, on both sides of the aisle, found it fit to allow the Constitutional Council to resign en masse and did not exercise their duty and obligation to reconstitute another Council. That is why we are in this quandry where we have to interpret the second part of Article 49:

2)" The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient"

As you can see from the above the Beri/Bkirki interpretation is not unreasonable. Actually I have come around to the point of view that requiring a quorum of 2/3 votes is a requirement for the first ballot. Since no one party has any chance of getting 2/3 support on the first ballot this does not mean that after the first vote everybody goes home. A correct interpretation is that while at least 2/3 of the members are in attendace then a second round of voting takes place and an "absolute majority" vote getter is declared as the new President.

We will find out soon enough what will happen. I am still of the opinion that holding such elections on time and not pushing through athe candidacy of a candidate with a strong politiocal assosiaction is the only possible out from this mess. Otherwise we can insist on a different interpretation and on a candidate that is strongly associated with one camp or another and watch the tragedy unfold.

[LebExile]

I cant stress this enough, but I disagree with everyone on this board...

what exactly has March 14 lost???
Why are you guys throwing in the towel this early on.

The Nahr Bared war was never a simple war between the Lebanese army and a few terrorist trouble makers. This was essentially a battle between the Lebanese army and Syrian intelligence..

do you really believe the official figures of 200 killed..

I have spoken with so many people, and the truth of the matter is that at least - at least 10,000 terrorists have been killed in nahar bared..

the only reason they wont disclose this figure is they dont want to provoke the palestinians into starting another crises in the other camps.

supposedly 30,000 fled the camp at the start of the hositilities and moved to a neighbouring camp??? hmmmm... which camp exactly...

As for Sfeir requiring a 2/3rds quorum for election of president, sorry to disappoint you guys but Sfeir is neither a politician nor a constitutional lawyer... so, even though his opinion is the same as that of the opposition, its not binding like law..

then there is the issue of Sleiman becomming the next president. I dont want to sound like a broken record, but, given the parliament is closed, and Beri will refuse to open it, the march 14 are able to call a majority of members to vote for a successor - regardless of wheter its in parliament or otherwise.

[Bad Vilbel]

10,000 terrorists???? Are you on crack?

[Omar Hamada]

The Lebanese Army, though enjoying wonderful and widespread public support, is weak - as we've seen from the past 2 or 3 months of fighting in Tripoli. This is a conflict that should have been easily completed within a week or two. The fact that it is still dragging on would be almost comical if it weren't for the sad fact that so many soldiers have been killed. Approximately two Lebanese soldiers have been killed for every one militant. That speaks volumes as to the Lebanese Army's knowledge of military doctrine and tactics, and of its ability to properly execute a military operation. They may be slowly winning, but certainly not in a decisive way, and then only because of superior numbers of soldiers available to replace the dead and injured, and open food, water, and ammunition supply routes. On the whole, however, they are being out fought and maneuvered hands down and could never effectively face an organized military force, Hizballah, or global civil unrest. Depending on them at this stage to maintain peace is not an educated or wise position. However, they are trying, and my heart certainly goes out to them. I am very proud of their efforts, but they seem to be little more than cannon fodder. I blame their training, leadership, and governmental support. Additionally, it is always easier to defend than to attack, and unfortunately they find themselves facing a hardened, well emplaced, and defensive enemy with ideal cover and concealment, while they are relegated to poorly emplaced positions that leave them open to sniper and mortar fire.

[fubar]

Who has been in command of this army for the past 9 years? How is it then that, when Nahr El Bared broke out, what the LAF needed most was helmets and body armor? Helmets and body armor are not advanced weaponry or heavy arms. No country, the US included, would not provide the LAF with helmets and body armor. So what is the excuse for why the LAF did not have them? You cannot lay that at the feet of M14. But you can and should lay that at the feet of General Sulieman. Training and leadership, indeed.

After doing such a rousing job as Commander of the Army, he should get a whole country. /sarc

[ghassan karam]

Fubar,
Right on the money. Unfortunately critical thinking is not widely spread in the country of my birth.

[Bad Vilbel]

+1 Fubar.

And yeah, people forget this crap. I bet you no one even remembers that Suleiman was commander for the past 9 years. Most people suddenly got interested in him about 2 months ago, when his name first surfaced.
And as far as the sheeple go, the attention span doesn't go that far back in history...

[ghassan karam]

The following is just an observation. I have no idea what it means but it struck me, for the first time, this afternoon that we are blessed with a General (Lahoud) who would love to stick around, a General (Aoun) who would do whatever it takes to get there and a General (Suleiman) who is intrigued by the prospect. This must make a statement of some sort about us as a people or does it? WE even have a wannabe General (Nasrallah):-)

[JoseyWales]

Gus and LebEx,

You're right the law MAY be a bit gray on the 2/3, but I've written more than once on this and I maintain the 2/3 quorum is wrong.

But that was NOT my point re Sfeir. And of course legally what he says means nothing.

However, MORALLY in the prez election of a MARONITE prez, he is a heavy-weight.

And he denied M14 a useful threat and/or a very important negotiation card by de facto shutting down the issue.

Hezbo and Aoun have now veto power on the prez thanks to Sfeir. If they are not assured of an acceptable man, they will just walk out , no 2/3 quorum and no election.

That's not how you play hard ball (and I repeat it is the wrong reading of the law).

LebEx: M14 has lost on all fronts: got a cease fire for Hezbo and got called traitors, got screwed in downtown, in the partial election, by Salloukh, by Sfeir...

Who did NOT screw them?

[Ken]

Al-Quds al-Arabi reported today that the "surprise," the big Nas refers to is chemical and biological weapons.

Heaven help Lebanon if it is true.

[ghassan karam]

Ken ,
Is the Al Quds Al Arabi different the the AlQuds? When I read Al Quds the only relevant item that I found was the report about the expectations of the retired Lebanese general to the effect that HA has sophisticated Anti-Aircraft rockets. As important as such a weapon might be it cannot constitute the big surprise that Mr. Nasrallah was talking about. Sophisticated anti aircraft batteries cannot change the outcome of war and the whole region.
When I raised the issue of what is the surprise I was obvioiusly afraid that it might be chemical weapons. Put Iranian long term missiles and Syrian chemical plants together and you get Nasrallahs big surprise.I am afraid that the surprise cannot be anything else, that will live up to the name. I hope for the sake of all of us that this is not so and if it is that HA will never ever use such weapons. If it was bad to use chemical weapons against the Iraqi Kurds by Saddam then it is equally wrong for HA or anybody else to use them. I hope that if the true nature of the threats of Mr. Nasrallah become known and they do turn out to be chemical weapons that every single Arab country will declare its outrage, cut funding to HA and its suppliers and use all tools available to them to stop this deranged man from committing great crimes against humanity.Mr. Nasrallah and his bosses might be surprised to learn that Zionists are members of the human race.

[Bad Vilbel]

I don't think the Arab countries would be that drastic if Nassrallah did indeed declare having Chemical or bio weapons.
You really put too much faith into these jokes in the Arab countries.

[ghassan karam]

BV,
I share your skepticism about the ability and the willingness of The Arab League to take a strong meaningful position regarding HA's Chemical weapons capability, if there is even a suspicion that such a capability exists. I do not think that we have to wait for a definite proof,because by then it would be too late and because we might never be able to have the convincing evidence. That is why if there is any suspicion that Nasrallahs threats refer to Chemical weapons then The Arab League needs to make its position on the issue crystal clear. The last thing that is needed is another Saddam.

[Randall]

When y'all say the army should have defeated the terrorists in "a week," I think you may possibly be overlooking something.

The type of quick and easy victory you are suggesting that the army SHOULD have accomplished by now usually is the result of tactics that are more brutal than the current government/military is willing to apply at this time for a whole complicated mess of political/cultural/etc... reasons.

Maybe the attempt to minimize collateral damage, which is understandable, is what is dragging this thing out.

[JoseyWales]

Randall,

Your question is a good one, but the more basic questions first:

An army that is costing us billions was asking for HELMETS on day 2 of Bared.

Let's get an answer to that one first, from visionaries Lahoud and Sleiman and Murr...

[whywesteppin]

Speaking of Sfeir...

(Naharnet) Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir said Friday he was against constitutional amendments unless they were for the sake of Lebanon's salvation "because the constitution is not a game."
"In principle, I object constitutional amendments … But I do not object if (amendments) will salvage the country," Sfeir said in an interview with the daily As Safir.

"I am with the law, with the constitution, with discipline. What is going to happen? I don't know. If the army commander can rescue the country, then he is welcome," Sfeir said.

If he really thought the constitution meant something, he wouldn't give contingencies where it's o.k. to change it.

[whywesteppin]

On rereading the excerpt I quoted, if Sfeir is referring to legal amendments to the constitution, then I take back what I said. I realize now that "contingencies where it's o.k. to change it (the constitution)" are exactly what amendments are for.

I'm not familiar with the Lebanese constitution though and whether or not amendments would apply to the issue of the president and also what percentage of votes are needed.

[Macemuscle]

Nasrallah's surprise is longer range missles and some anti-aircraft. I think you give him too much credit in terms of having something more sophisticated. Chemical weapons? give me a break!

If you recall, he made a similar comment during last summer's war and it turned out to mean slightly longer range missles so if history is any indication... Basically may be now he has something with a range that can reach Tel Aviv... Big deal, these missles are there more for deterrent and psychological reasons than any real military advantage.

His anti-aircraft weapons will not be worth sh*t... recall that during the 1982 invasion, Syria had some of the most sophisticated anti-aircraft systems (likewise Iraq during Iraq War I) of the time (with Soviet technical support) and they proved to be highly ineffective.

[ghassan karam]

MM,
I am responding to your email because I do not want to be misunderstood. Mr. Nasrallah boasted that his Hezbollastan" has a big surprise up its sleave that could change the war outcomes in the region. The starting point in my speculation is to take him seriously that he does have access to a "game changer". Furthermore I do not consider the ability to unleash terror on urban areas through random rocketry or a sophisticated antiaircraft system to fit the description. That is why I am only wondering, if one is to take the threat seriously, whether it can be chemical weapons capability. His Syrian co masters are after all reputed to have a number of sophisticated plants that can produce a wide variety of such deadly chemical and biological compounds. I obviously hope that he does not have the capability to threaten anyone including the happless Lebanese government. I hope that his talk is nothing more but an exercise in braggadocio and I am hopeful that the eyes in the sky combined with some other intelligence work will ultimately reveal the truth about this "Big Surprise"

[Bad Vilbel]

GK,

I'm with MM on this one. I explained earlier how in the Arab psyche, the slightest chink in the Zionist army is considered a huge victory (witness the chest thumping that ensued last year when an Israeli ship was hit by Hezbollah).

Also, don't forget that his hyperbole about "changing the region" was also mentioned last year, when Hezbollah supposedly "defeated" the IDF. That was trumpeted as a huge change for the region, because for the first time the IDF had been defeated and repelled, yadda yadda.

You get my point.

I am not discounting the chemical weapons theory, but I've also learned to take Nassrallah's grandiose hyperbole with a grain of salt. The standards by which he bases "HUGE SURPRISE" aren't necessary ones that fit your scale or mine.

[Hazbani]

It is Hazbani (after a village in south Leb.)
Just a simple word. There are things that better be left alone or treated with more brain than muscles as, for example,the leaders of Israel found last summer. So here is an important Jewish secret for you to ponder. Surprise ! Jews Zionists or not also have their weak points. One of these is the word "gas". What some here called chemical weapons. It is not wise to mess with this word. First there is the moral question and international laws of war. But, well these do not alway apply. So it should be remembered that Jews are good chemists, Nobel prize or two and the first president of Israel was a known chemist, of war materials. So probably any thing the Syrians can cook the Jews can cook some thing better. Just remember the story of Mashal in Amman. G-d save us all, in Lebanon and Israel, if any body from Lebanon will try to use gas in an attack on Israel. Even the word make me, a Jew, very uncomfortable. Realy, this is no Joke, I am speaking for my self only, I hope I am not insulting, not touching a Lebanese or Arab weak point or a matter of pride,not bragging (far from it) I am even a little bit scared. Please, dont even talk about it, it is a very dangerous and unwise thing to do.