Syrian impunity and defending Palestine

According to al-Mustaqbal, the Syrian army has basically invaded Lebanon:

Syrian troops on Thursday reportedly have penetrated three kilometers into Lebanese territories, taking up positions in the mountains near Yanta in east Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. The daily Al Mustaqbal, citing sources who confirmed the cross-border penetration, did not say when the procedure in the Fahs Hill overlooking Deir al-Ashaer in the Rashaya province took place.

The sources said Syrian troops, backed by bulldozers, were fortifying positions "in more than one area" along the Lebanese border, erecting earth mounds and digging "hundreds" of trenches and individual bunkers.

Syria on Wednesday reopened the Joussia-Qaa border post with Lebanon, but two crossings stayed closed. (Naharnet)

Syrian army units are also reportedly present in PFLP-GC positions along the border. The Damascus based militia has even threatened to move the fighting from Nahr El Bared to other Palestinian camps if a joint Palestinian force was deployed in the camp. This threat, reported by the rival Palestinian factions (LBC), coincided with a report in Kuwait's Al-Rai Al-Aam claiming that the head of Syrian military intelligence, Asef Shawkat,  offered Libyan leader Kadhafi a deal: Amal, an extension of Hizbullah as Shawkat called it, would forget about the Moussa As-Sadr disappearance and Syria would hand over wanted Islamists, in exchange for Libyan support for the "opposition" and the Palestinian factions. Shawkat, a suspect in the Hariri assassination and Bashar's brother-in-law, reportedly asked the Libyans to support the activities of certain Palestinian factions to move the fighting to the Ain El Helweh camp in Sidon and the Burj Barajneh camp near the airport, "should the need arise".

The Lebanese army, meanwhile, is still engaged in sporadic fighting in the Nahr El Bared camp. Commander Michel Suleiman continued talking policy instead of sending his troops to protect the eastern border, or openly acknowledge the threat from Damascus. He was quoted as saying by the National News Agency that the "blood of martyrs… was not only spilled to defend Lebanon, but also in defense of the brotherly Palestinian people that is fighting terrorism." Suleiman "affirmed" that the Lebanese army will continue to aim its guns at the "Israeli enemy and at terrorism," which he said both aim to dismantle and destroy societies engaged in struggles. 

وأكد العماد سليمان أن دماء الشهداء والجرحى التي خضبت تراب الوطن من أقصاه إلى أقصاه، لم تهرق من أجل الدفاع عن لبنان فحسب، إنما أيضا دفاعا عن الشعب الفلسطيني الشقيق الذي يحاول الارهاب عبثا، من خلال التسلل إلى جسمه، نشر الفوضى وزرع بذور التقاتل بين الإخوة، وصرفه عن قضيته الأساسية في تحرير الأرض ودعم حق العودة.

وأكد أن الجيش اللبناني الذي قدم قوافل الشهداء دفاعا عن القضية الفلسطينية العادلة منذ نشوء الكيان الاسرائيلي الغاضب على أرض فلسطين، يؤكد أن بندقيته ستبقى مصوبة في اتجاهها الصحيح نحو العدو الاسرائيلي والارهاب المتلاقيين معا على سياسة الشرذمة وتهديم أسس المجتمعات المناضلة، ولن يسمح هذا الجيش لأحد بتشويه العلاقة التاريخية بين الشعبين الشقيقين اللبناني والفلسطيني، والانزلاق نحو مشاريع مشبوهة تصب أولا وآخرا في خدمة أعداء الوطن. (NNA)

It is becoming clear that the Lebanese army will never directly confront the threats from the Assad regime, for fear of fracturing the army institution. It is likely that the Nahr El Bared battle would not have taken place had the higher command not felt the embarrassment brought on by the massacre of Lebanese soldiers. That the army's command is willing to be dragged into a protracted conflict in the north raises many questions about its strategy and allegiance to the legitimate authority in the land.

The Internal Security Forces, who, unlike the army, seem to follow orders from the cabinet, and not semi-independent and torn generals, are seen as shouldering the task of fighting Syrian intervention. They have deployed 300 policemen along the northern border to prevent smuggling, and have been trying to beef up their numbers through controversial hiring. The ISF is being portrayed as a Sunni force by the "opposition's" media. Even the Maronite patriarch was unhappy with the hiring drive at the ISF, fearing that more Sunnis than Maronites are joining. Everybody is wary of the "Hariri militia", as some like to call the ISF. More so than the established militias roaming the land-of-do-as-you-please.

Comments

[Tatiana]

show me a country were you can invade 3 kilometers and that
is alright with the locals. lebanon is becoming a joke. all groups
care about their little villages and their gangs. why not divide
the country into little sections and get it over this one country under one flag. there is no country and there is no flag. just gangs. i feel sorry that we have to give our two cents for a cause that seems to be hollow. may everyone that dreams of lebanon keep dreaming. for i for one will wake up form this nightmare and move on with my life. bless u all.
p.s. if you still feel there is hope wake me up later.

[Charlie]

Good to see that Suleiman is continuing with his presidential campaign! And like any good candidate, he is addressing his constituents and in Lebanon it is not the citizens but rather the neighbors!!

And yeah by the way, Sfier needs to step off

[Bad Vilbel]

Becoming a joke? Good one. Lebanon has been a joke for a long time now.

I saw the story about the Syrian invasion this morning, and was wondering why no one seems to have picked up on it or commented on it.

I find it amusing that a foreign army can go 3 kilometers into a neighbouring country without all hell breaking loose.
Had this been the IDF, all sorts of UN, European and Arab coutries would be up in arms, lodging protests and clamoring all over the place.
Why is it that Lebanon continues to be treated, not just by Syria, but by all Arab countries as well, as a Syrian province?

What a freaking joke.

And don't even get me started on Suleiman. Cheap whores. All of them.

[Jeha]

AK, it is not for "for fear of fracturing the army institution"; the troops and mid-Level echelons are all itching to exact retribution.

It is only that Suleiman and a few like him are too close to the Syrian regime for comfort.

[Shunkleash]

Aren't there supposed to be lebanese army units at the border? Maybe they were too engrossed in their game of sheysh beysh to notice what a family member in the army says are hundreds of syrian soldiers crossing the border. Syrian trucks have also been seen entering the PFLP-GC compound in a clear attempt at arming them to the teeth.

TO add to this nonsense, there is a report that an order was given to have lebanese army units meet the "invasion" which was overruled by the general...dunno how true but my cousin indicated they were ordered to move out and even before the truck moved the engine was turned off....curious nes pa?

I get the feeling that this is Syria way of ensuring that no foreign or "real" lebanese monitors make it to the border to be on the look out for arms shipments. To place monitors on the border now would likley increase the risks of an incident...afterall, they could be mistaken for "rabid" sheep or better yet undercover IDF soldiers. Look out for the next incident with UNIFIL.

In any other country General Suleiman would have tendered his resignation for the gross negligence he and his staff have shown in alowing the "infiltration" but instread we are now being showered with his love notes to the palestinians and the syrians.

Clearly, ive been in a coma for a couple of weeks but unless the rules of independence have changed shouldn't we have heard from the gov't by now...some kind of statement or something YOU KNOW about stuff. Maybe, ill wake up tomorrow and the minister of defence will declare the fight for lebanon is over and WE LOST!

Weeping Willow (aka manyouk msouwez) will have some work to do...can just see the next cabinet meeting chaired by sissy wissy...CLOCK IN...Syrian invasion->check, shat myself and cried->check, ordered tea and ate my vegetables->check, ask the king of some fucking middle east shit hole for help to stop foreign agression->CHECK, go visit SAAAAAAAD to collect paycheck->CHECK!!!...CLOCK OUT

later

[ghassan karam]

Something is not right. An army of a neighbouring country penetrates 3 Kilometers into the territory of its neighbour, meets no opposition whatsoever, the incident goes totally unreported in th e press (with the exception of Al Mustaqbal)and neither the Army nor the ISF or the Ministry of Defense feel the need to make a statement about a most serious act of beligerence delivered to the integrity of the state.
The above leads me to two conclusions:Either(1) The military penetration did not take place and the news item as published was a fabrication or (2) All institutions and all citizens of the invaded country have spoken out very clearly with their silence and criminal negligence about their "loyalties and allegiances" and love for country. I sure hope it was the former because I refuse to think that the latter is conceivable. If the news item is not a total fabrication then let us not only blame the cabinet, the Army, the pols , the media, the UN, The Arab league but let us above everything else blame the citizens of a country who cannot show outrage even when they are invaded. If that is the case then yes Tatiana, there is no reason for the country.

[valiumjunky]

Are there two independent sources that say there was/is an incursion or invasion? any video? any photos? anyone on the ground reporting?

[Janan]

Valiumjunky,
I've been looking everywhere and can't find another corroborating source. It's not on the BBC or CNN websites. I listened to Al-Arabiya, LBC, and NewTV news yesterday, last night, and this morning and there was no mention of it. Yesterday's "Kalam Annass" with the U.S. ambassador made no reference to it either. My hunch is that it didn't really happen. I hope I'm right. I can't imagine that the foreign press would have let this go. An action like this is too provocative for the U.S. administration not to take advantage of. They typically jump at every chance they get to put Syria in a negative light.

[ghassan karam]

Just another observation based on the various news stories over the past 24-36 hours. Since the events that have been occuring in the Lebanese political field are anything but random I wander whether the Grand Conductor in Damascus has any special plans for the 15th of July? Note the Assef Shawkat Libyan mission referred to above by AK and described by AlRai AlAam as successful, the at least attempted border preparation if not outright penetration by the Syrian forces into Lebanese territory, the declaration by the Syrian government asking all Syrian University students in Lebanon to get back to Syria by July 15 and then the self imposed deadline of the same date July 15) by Emil Lahoud for the Lebanese opposition to present to him their unified demands. What are the possibilities that Lahoud will make a major announcement on that day that he is staying unless... which will be accompanied by Syrian forces crossing the Lebanese borders in order to lend Lahoud credibility and muscle. Add to the above a move by Ahmad Jibreel to start a conflict at Ain el Heelwah and the Biqa'a? And if any of the above comes to pass then what can one expect from the LAF, ISF, the Arab League, the UN and what will be the reaction of the real stakeholders in all of this? Would the Lebanese people stand by as spectators allowing bankrupt pols to determine their future or would they take to the streets to regain control of their destiny and independence? Many questions and very few answers, if any, from the people in charge. The coming weeks should prove to be interesting as in the Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times". No people should ever have to live in a society where they feel helpless because they cannot trust their government to ever do the right thing. Is it possible to have anyone in March 14 develop a spine within the next few weeks? Would they ever have a plan to do something, anything besides reacting to events?

[Shunkleash]

No spines to be found...just large bowls of fetid jelly.

I completely agree it is now up to the people. How they react when the next round of shit hits the fan will determine the fate of Lebanon and the people living in it. Will they run to their zaims for guidance or will they throw off the shackles and tell them all to collectively fuck off!

I for one suggest that General Suleimans resignation/request for leave or whatever it was that weeping willow refused to accept or grant a few months back be accepted NOW. Someone, with balls and sound military knowledge should be promoted post haste and the general should then be advised it would be in his best interests to retire.

[Bad Vilbel]

Of course the Lebanese will stand as spectators. They always do.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

'Ha'aretz' in Hebrew (couldn't find it on the English version) quotes 'Al-Sinara' newspaper (Arabic, publishes in Nazareth), that the Syrian government decided to redraw it's forces and citizens from Lebanon, and to close the border between the countries, as a gesture of good will toward the Lebanese.
.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

I ment "withdraw" .. of course.!
.

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm not sure that article is correct, or being interpreted correctly. The news story you're referring to is probably this one:

Damascus Moves Students Out of Lebanon

[ghassan karam]

Some principles appear to be so intuitive and so simple but yet many do not seem to grasp their meaning. A good case in point can be simply summerized by the adage " what is good for the goose is good for the gander" i.e the least to be expected from a position advocated by individuals, groups and states is to pay hommage to the idea of consistency. Do not treat life as a cafeteria line whereby you can pick and choose whatever suits your mood at a particular point in time.

I can only imagine the ruccus that Al Mustaqbal would have made, and rightly so, if the Iranian ambassador had waxed eloquently and at length about what he thinks the Lebanese should do in electing their next President. Yet the same rag goes to press yestewrday with its next to the largest headline about the ideas that the US ambassador thinks must be found in the Lebanese President and furthermore he deigns to instruct us about what we should do in order not to have two governments. If Iranian input is to be considered unwarranted, unacceptable and even illegal interference in domestic affairs of a host country then the same must be true of the US ambassador and every other ambassador that hails from any country. Their opinions do not warrant coverage and obviously they should not be headline news.. March 14 does not seem to understand that those who oppose HA do not necessarily grant it a carte blanche to just be totally ineffective and clueless. It is not sufficient "not to be HA" we need to see March 14 stand up for real, true independence and sovereignty.

(BTW, US ambassador , Feltman, to his credut asked the Lebanese government yesterday to take charge of its own affairs and to even disagree with the policies advocated by the US.)

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

You've just hit on a pet peeve of mine! The double standards we see so much in Lebanese politics.

- The "resistance" that wants to defend Lebanon against Israeli "aggression". But doesn't seem to mind Syrians and Terror groups invading...
- The folks who point the finger everytime Feltman or France or Saudi Arabia says anything, but go to Damascus and Tehran the next day.

There are COUNTLESS other examples. And what's worse is that no one seems to know to call them on this crap (and this goes for both sides).

I wish there was someone in Lebanon who could put up a list of everything these goons say or do, with check marks next to each item that turns out to be a contradiction, double standard, or hypocritical in nature. And I wish the people could see this list and stop allowing themselves to be brainwashed by these guys who will say anything to sell our souls for their own advancement.

[Jeha]

Ghassan,

I think all the "news" have more to do with election politics than any real development. Since we do not vote for the Prez, and since no side can impose their man (for now), they are all "positioning" themselves.

Herr Feltman's "Rustum Lite" impression only serves to establish the rules of the game as the United States understands them.

[Charlie]

Speaking of hypocrisies, what is going with Sfier and the Maronite council?
Their latest statement amounts to nothing more than pulling the rug from underneath
M14 legs!
As the country struggles through one of the most critical phases of its existence, the Maronite church continues to play the divide and concur game amongst its Christian street by stocking fears of sectarianism! I am really getting tired of Sfier, calling for freedom and independence but too afraid of how it may erode his own power and control!! His latest move is amounting to breathing new life into Lahoud and Aoun at the expense of the M14 Christian pols.

[Jeha]

Charlie,

There is no need to "Pull the rug" from under M14; they do it themselves. The entire country is sectarian, so accusing the bishops to add/remove to it is irrelevant. They are only pointing out that one "side" has been catering a bit too much to their own constituents...

... And we're close to naming... er. Electing a prez. They are only trying to make sure they will have a say in it.

[Charlie]

Jeha,

Granted, but this type of move is not what the country needs today. As a secularist, I find it alarming to see the religious institutions play such divisive game. Keep in mind, as poor as M14 may appear, this by far is largest cross confessional movement Lebanon has ever seen. Also, the move by the church is pumping live to a group of people that have plain and simple proved themselves to be the least loyal to Lebanon and its cause. This group of people should be prevented from ascending to any position of power not just the presidency. Any move by any group that can contribute to their strength amounts to nothing more than aiding the previous occupier in gaining control over the country again. Sfier has constantly asked Lebanese, and rightfully so, to rise above their personal interests and consider the welfare of the Nation. He needs to practice what he preaches and lead by example.

[Bad Vilbel]

Seriously, someone should take all these sectarian fucks out back and put them out of their misery once and for all.

[ghassan karam]

This cabinet must resign for the good of the country. A two government scenario is absolutely the worst possible outcome possible and thus it must not be contemplated. It is nothing short of a declaration to the world that after sixty odd years of trying Lebanon is a dysfunctional entity that is begging to be taken out of its misery by declaring its bankruptcy in all fields, social, political and economic. Responsible leaders will not ask the Army and the ISF to make a choice between two governments neither would they subject the population to the difficult circumstances of suspending whatever is left of the state machinery. Who is to collect taxes, who will be responsible to deliver social services and who is to make sure that "law and order" at the most basic level are safeguarded?

To win the battle and lose the war is not a responsible strategy. So what does Lebanon, the state, gain from the fact that the current cabinet is to stay in office another 3 months? What is it that they hope to accomplish in 3 months that they have failed to do in over two years?Most will agree that this has not been a very effective government but even if it has been one of the most effective government then plain simple logic demands that it gives way to a transitional Mikati type cabinet that will pacify the country in order to elect an independent Lebanese president whose primary task is to establish for the first time a Lebanese Democratic Republic. Once the task of electing a politically independent, decent, honorable, effective and strong Lebanese patriot is accomplished then the task of forming a new cabinet will follow. There is no guarantee what shape the new cabinet will take but that is part of the political process isn't it. Someone, maybe even Mr. Saniora , will have to form a coalition that will get the constitutionally mandated support in the Chamber of Deputies. To push the country towards more dysfunctionality and the scepter of two governments is nothing short of a game of Russian Roulette. Responsible politicians do not subject countries to such odds especially when the price is so little; a negotiated understanding that the current cabinet will resign to be replaced by a transitional government for the next 4 months.
The only task that matters is to find an honorable way to save the country and I believe that no other solution than the one described above will work. Let me repeat: Current cabinet resigns and is replaced by a transitional cabinet of independent Ministers, maybe even technocrats, to ensure a constitutionally mandated election of a new politically independent President.
The transitional period and the honey moon that would be earned by the new President should go a long way towards providing both sides with an acceptable face saving formula to climb-down from the positions that have been taken over the past year or so.

[Janan]

This comment is outside the political realm but I am going to make it anyway because I was upset by the remark Shankleash made above— “Of course the Lebanese will stand as spectators. They always do.” How about the thousands of Lebanese in syrian jails? They’re not there because they stood by as spectators. What about the hundreds of students who were hosed down, beaten, and rounded up as they protested lahoud’s extension? What about my cousin and many like him who were made “disappeared” by the Mukhabarat for daring to speak out? I really think it is unfair to make such blanket statements, especially when the consequences of standing up and doing something is quite dangerous and requires a great deal more courage than marching in a protest in Washington, D.C. For months now I have participated in dozens of events that expressed non-violent resistance to the status quo—stand-ins, candlelight vigils, petition drives, protest marches, inter-faith dialogs, human chains etc. I don’t think I stood by as a spectator and neither did the others who joined me.

Thousands of Lebanese are doing what they can despite an incredibly tense and seemingly hopeless situation. Given that the government and its institutions have been paralyzed for months now, don’t you wonder how the country keeps going? Most people have heard of the Red Cross and the volunteers helping out at the camps up north, but how many know about the hundreds of NGOs and volunteer groups and organizations that are in Lebanon today? How many have heard of mouvementsocial, arcenciel, Ayadina, KAFA, Lebanese Council to Resist Violence Against Women, Greenline, Lebanese GreenPeace, Lebanese Amnesty International, Nouveaux Droits de L’Homme, ALEF, Nahwa Al-Muwatiniya, WIT, KRC for Victims of Torture, Family Care Lebanon, HELEM, Najdeh Association, Lebanese Women Democratic Gathering, Lebanese Association for Electoral Reform, Offre Joie, Samidoun, etc., etc., etc.? These are just a few of the civic society organizations that I can name, but there are many more. And, by the way, they all exist because of dedicated ordinary Lebanese citizens who refuse to give up on Lebanon. Without them, this country would fall apart.

So please Shankleash, be fair. I can understand your frustration. We are all frustrated. But I don’t think you should trivialize what so many good people are trying to do with such a dismissive remark.

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

“Let me repeat: Current cabinet resigns and is replaced by a transitional cabinet of independent Ministers, maybe even technocrats, to ensure a constitutionally mandated election of a new politically independent President.
The transitional period and the honey moon that would be earned by the new President should go a long way towards providing both sides with an acceptable face saving formula to climb-down from the positions that have been taken over the past year or so.”

And relinquish the stage to the group that has no legitimacy to be in power!!!

If anyone should resign, it should be Lahoud. By all accounts, Lahoud is nothing more than a Syrian soldier, so why would you trust him to pave the way for the election of a new president? Besides, we have seen first hand the extent of murder and mayhem the Syrian regime is willing to go to achieve its goals, so what makes you think that:
a) An independent set of Ministers can be found and,
b) They would be immune to the pressure the Syrians and their proxies are going to exert on them to achieve their goals?

Here is the thing, if the “opposition’s” intentions are good and truly are looking for a way out of this mess, then they would have accepted any of the ideas that have been put forward so far by many of the mediators. They would have not shut down all channels of direct communications and work so hard to cripple the institutions. With that in mind, do you really think it is prudent of M14 to step aside and trust that Lahoud and Berri will be move forward with elections? I don’t think so. Lahoud, has no intentions of allowing a new president to be elected, HA is not going to support any president that will ask them to disarm, Berri will follow the lead of these two and all three will not dare make a move that will cross Assad!

[ghassan karam]

Is it possible that the Maronite Patriarchs do not know that the area of Lebanon is 10, 452 square Kilometers and that each square kilometer is equal to i million square meters? If they had only bothered to do the simplest of all divisions then they would have discovered that 7,000,000.00 square meters i.e 7 square kilometers represents only o.o67% of the total area of Lebanon. It is so disappointing to learn that such seminal proclamation as the prelates monthly statement are not subjected to even the simplest and most basic tests. This was extremely irresponsible of them. Maybe they will from here on confine their opinions to purely religious matters.

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

"Maybe they will from here on confine their opinions to purely religious matters."

One can only wish!!

[ghassan karam]

Charlie,
Ultimately we will have to resolve this issue. It will be either the demise of the state of Lebanon or the laying of the foundations for a fresh new begining. The current status quo is dead, we have gotten out of it all the mileage that we possibly could. Since a new cabinet will have to be formed anyway in less than 4 months and since Lahoud and HA do not have the votes to get "their" cabinet installed I believe that March 14 need to show one more time that they care about the general welfare of the country than their own personal fortunes. Also keep in mind that this proposition does not carry a "fatal, existential" risk with it.

[Jeha]

Charlie,

I am justifying, only explaining... We are at the limits of the old sectarian system. The system has reached its limits, and a solution such as the one advocated by Ghassan will at least have the merit of revealing Hezb's true face to all those who remain on the fence, and "precipitating" matters.

Then again, it may be too late for reason, and the momentum is such matters may precipitate on their own.

[anonymous]

BRAVO aleiki ya Janan.God bless you !Eloquently said!!

[JoseyWales]

Janan,

There's a lot of truth in what you are saying and those you mention, the jailed and the NGOs, are risking and doing a lot.

But when it comes to the bulk of the population and/or the players that can make a difference I agree with Shunkleash.

I think the political parties and the business and trade associations are asleep at the switch.

Example: The downtown guys, who are being bankrupted, waited months before they finally timidly asked for the demos to be taken elsewhere (i.e. go disrupt someone else). In my book this is being a spectator.

Among other things, they could have picketed gvmnt offices, or Hezbo/Aoun MPs homes and\or businesses or downtown Nabatiyeh. They could have sued someone etc...

Where is the pressure from the Chamber of Commerce, Doctor's Associations, teachers etc...on the pols and the system?? And I mean pressure (boycotts, demos, campaigns) not some "please solve it guys" press release.

[Charlie]

Jeha,

“I am justifying, only explaining... We are at the limits of the old sectarian system”

I understand you are (by the way I assumed you are saying “not justifying”) and I also share your observation about the bankruptcy of the sectarian system. Personally, I thought that system had run its course back in the 70s. I guess a good thing from statements like the last one produced by the bishops, it serves as a litmus test to secularism in Lebanon. If the common person in the Christian and Muslim communities reacts blindly to such statements, then the Lebanese are still not ready to move into a new secular base system. But if they do, then reason might be prevailing and there is hope after all.

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

How about in the case where Berri, Lahoud, Aoun and HA collaborate to prevent the presidential elections from taking place. What authorities does a resigned cabinet have in running the affairs of the Nation? how would that reflect on the international scene and the impact to Lebanon’s international obligations such as: 1701, 1559 and the upcoming tribunal?

I ask because I don’t know the extent of power a care taking Council of Ministers has under the constitution.

[Hazbani]

Lebanon is full of media people. Also here, on this blog, people or so OK. Can some body please explain why no body but no body went to the area where allegedly Syria invaded Lebanon and brought some pictures ? It is less than 4 houres drive from Beiruth.

[ghassan karam]

Charlie,
My premise, which you are free to disagree with, is that a two government solution is the worst possible outcome. It seals the fate of what is called Lebanon by making it official that this entity should not exist. A two government option is simply not workable. Furthermore, this totally unacceptable solution is much more likely under the present conditions. Actually my request for this government to resign is not necessarily based on its performance/lack of performance but because it can negotiate submitting its resignation in exchange for the setting up of a transitional government that would make sure that the presidential elections are held on time. This solution could avert being dragged into the abyss. (BTW, I will be astonished if a solution that does not call for a resignation of this cabinet emerges.)

[fubar]

GK says, “Since a new cabinet will have to be formed anyway in less than 4 months and since Lahoud and HA do not have the votes to get ‘their’ cabinet installed I believe that March 14 need to show one more time that they care about the general welfare of the country than their own personal fortunes. Also keep in mind that this proposition does not carry a ‘fatal, existential’ risk with it.”

Ghassan, you assume a lot.

One, you assume that Lahoud, Amal, and Hezbollah will not have the votes THEN. Today is not tomorrow. Are you assuming that the replacement elections for Gemayel and Eido will be recognized as legitimate? Even if not, you are assuming that M14 maintains its simple majority. Unfortunately, M14 politicians have a nasty habit of being killed in Lebanon.

Two, what if there is no quorum for the Presidential election, even if a promise of a quorum is given in negotiating the caretaker cabinet? Who is this caretaker cabinet that will then take on the powers of the President under the Constitution in November? If they have not appeared yet, how does anyone know they can be trusted? Will an unknown caretaker government really be in a position to assert their Constitutional right to the powers of the Presidency if Lahoud refuses to leave or merely “appoints” a new President.

Three, the international community has established relationships with the current M14 cabinet. If M14 abandons the cabinet, what will the international community do? Can Lebanon really afford the time necessary for the international community to get to know the new caretaker cabinet? And what if the international community finds the new caretaker cabinet even less appealing than the M14 cabinet. All bets would then be off.

This suggestion would appear to carry more real possibilities for negative repercussions, yes, even fatal ones, than simply maintaining the current M14 cabinet -- the only internationally recognized “democratically elected” government of Lebanon.

And, of course, the biggest assumption of all is that Hezbollah would even go along with such a caretaker cabinet and would participate in any reasonable way in forming it. I can hear Nas now, the M14 cabinet knows that it is illegitimate, that is why it is suggesting a caretaker cabinet - Nas was right all along and Hezbollah should, therefore, have a larger say in forming the new caretaker cabinet. And if not, it too is illegitimate. Once the proposal is made and an effort is made to negotiate the new cabinet, how does M14 back out of the caretaker cabinet position when Hezbollah makes unreasonable demands and still maintain its credibility as the legitimate cabinet?

Well, anyway...Good luck with that...

[ghassan karam]

Fubar,
All the points that you bring up are legitimate. Of course I thought about them.But I am still concerned that we are almost at the final stretch before we hit the abyss and no one has seriously attempted to slow this run away train yet. Pretty soon nothing will be able to avoid a major wreck.
Someone has to come up with a formula that will save face and that could lead to an honorable solution. My sense of history tells me that reasonable minds will prevail and that we will avoid the catastrophic collision we are heading towards but this will not happen unless we think outside the box and unless we are willing to take the risk for the sake of a better future. If the other side chooses not to cooperate then March 14 will be only stronger. ( I am willing to listen to other scenarios that could lead to a way out from this quagmire).
Hey, it is always good to hear from you.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

I don't understand what makes you think that a transitional government ala Mikati will do what's right for the country and more importantly, that it will lead to the election of an independent president.

History has shown us that the pro-Syrian camp is not willing to play by the rules, and not willing to accept an "independent government". What makes you think any new government or president will be accepted by them? If it's not to their liking (i.e. independent), it WILL be sabotaged the same way the previous one was. The "consultations" will go on for 6 months (as they did for the formation of the previous government) with one side constantly refusing to accept anything short of veto power. I really don't understand what your scenario hopes to accomplish, or how it proposes to avoid the abyss. The opposition is the one taking us into the abyss, and they have shown an unwillingness to compromise short of being given complete power over the government (through veto power and a 3rd majority). Short of surrendering to their demands, it doesn't really matter what you do. They're still going to take us to the abyss.
And I for one, am no longer willing to accept their terms as a preferrable alternative to the abyss. Let's go into this abyss they've been holding over our head once and for all. And if we come out the other side, then we're worth having a country. If we don't, then we clearly weren't deserving of a country anyway.

You're attempts at avoiding the abyss is pretty much exactly the same as the infamous threat of civil war the pro-Syrian side has been threatening us with all this time.

[Bad Vilbel]

Btw,

It was me who said "The lebanese will stand as spectators." , not Shunkleash. And although I do apologize for offending Janan's sensibilities. And I do realize that there are many Lebanese that have made sacrifices for their country, and not stood idle, I do stand by my statement. When I say "The Lebanese" i mean the general populace. The majority, if you will. It's obviously a blanket statement, so there are CLEARLY exceptions. But overall, for over 60 years, the Lebanese have NEVER come together as one (thus warranting my use of "the Lebanese" as a generalization). The overall M.O. has ALWAYS been to be divided, to accept foreign intervention, and to put sectarian and tribal loyalties over all the good intentions and big words.
And what's worse than that...the Lebanese have ALWAYS been very quick to blame all their ills on "outsiders" and never taken responsibility for their own doings in their own house. And that goes hand in hand with their spectator mentality.

You tell me how many times and from how many people you've heard the following types of comments about "What the Americans did to us, or had planned for us", "The Palestinians made this country a mess.", "Eh, What can we do? Let's just hope they resolve this mess." "It's in the hands of God, or the Israelis, or the Americans, or the Syrians. What can we do?"

etc...

Always waiting for others to sort our messes for us. And then when they interfere, complaining about how it's all their fault.

Has it ever occured to these people that the "they" they keep referring to is ourselves? That WE can take control and take charge and say "ENOUGH!"

And you all know that nebuous "they" i'm talking about. It's in every rumor and story told on the Lebanese street. "They say there's gonna be war this summer." "They say Hariri is talking to the Israelis...", "They say there is something brewing"...For once, i wanna know who the fuck "THEY" is? Always these nebulous conspiracies...always these mysterious, omnipotent "They" that controls everything.
Well, I have news for you folks: There is no THEY. It's US! There doesn't have to be a war this summer. There doesn't have to be 2 governments. We don't HAVE to have Berri or Lahoud or Sanioa if we don't want them around. We don't have to lay down and accept what "THEY" have planned for us.

THAT is what bugs me about the Lebanese mentality.

[Bad Vilbel]

Btw,

It was me who said "The lebanese will stand as spectators." , not Shunkleash. And although I do apologize for offending Janan's sensibilities. And I do realize that there are many Lebanese that have made sacrifices for their country, and not stood idle, I do stand by my statement. When I say "The Lebanese" i mean the general populace. The majority, if you will. It's obviously a blanket statement, so there are CLEARLY exceptions. But overall, for over 60 years, the Lebanese have NEVER come together as one (thus warranting my use of "the Lebanese" as a generalization). The overall M.O. has ALWAYS been to be divided, to accept foreign intervention, and to put sectarian and tribal loyalties over all the good intentions and big words.
And what's worse than that...the Lebanese have ALWAYS been very quick to blame all their ills on "outsiders" and never taken responsibility for their own doings in their own house. And that goes hand in hand with their spectator mentality.

You tell me how many times and from how many people you've heard the following types of comments about "What the Americans did to us, or had planned for us", "The Palestinians made this country a mess.", "Eh, What can we do? Let's just hope they resolve this mess." "It's in the hands of God, or the Israelis, or the Americans, or the Syrians. What can we do?"

etc...

Always waiting for others to sort our messes for us. And then when they interfere, complaining about how it's all their fault.

Has it ever occured to these people that the "they" they keep referring to is ourselves? That WE can take control and take charge and say "ENOUGH!"

And you all know that nebuous "they" i'm talking about. It's in every rumor and story told on the Lebanese street. "They say there's gonna be war this summer." "They say Hariri is talking to the Israelis...", "They say there is something brewing"...For once, i wanna know who the fuck "THEY" is? Always these nebulous conspiracies...always these mysterious, omnipotent "They" that controls everything.
Well, I have news for you folks: There is no THEY. It's US! There doesn't have to be a war this summer. There doesn't have to be 2 governments. We don't HAVE to have Berri or Lahoud or Sanioa if we don't want them around. We don't have to lay down and accept what "THEY" have planned for us.

THAT is what bugs me about the Lebanese mentality.

[fubar]

GK says, "I am still concerned that we are almost at the final stretch before we hit the abyss and no one has seriously attempted to slow this run away train yet."

Ouch, the old train metaphor. Ghassan, have you forgotten already?

“We dismantled the rear gear and brakes of the train and threw them away sometime ago.” -- Shorty

Under the circumstances, maybe it is time this train jumped the tracks and forged a new path. And maybe the new path has to go through the abyss, as BV suggests, to get somewhere worth going.

One thing is certain, such absolute fear of the abyss will only result in appeasement.

At least, that is what "they" say... = )

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

I fully understand the reasoning behind your premise; it even crossed my mind early on when this conflict first broke out. The reason I didn’t think it will work back then as well as now is trust. See for this to work, there need to be:
--Trust Lahoud will leave office when his term is up and hands over the government to the Council of Ministers.
-- Berri and HA will allow M-14 to exercise their constitutional right and conduct a presidential election.
--That all parties are willing to respect the results of these elections and not throw a wrench into it if the results are not to their liking.
--Lebanon honoring international commitments specially 1701, 1559 and
continue work to get the tribunal underway.

Unfortunately, based on March-8 actions since they have started this conflict leads me to strongly believe they will not honor a single case of the previous cases I have listed. For even if they wanna, Assad won’t let them.

[Bad Vilbel]

What Charlie said.

[Jeha]

Ghassan,

Worse case, following your suggestion will only make sure Fubar's train will leave the station and forge itself new tracks. Then again, I fear Hezb will have to act soon to preempt the presidential election, unless Turkeys started to vote for thanksgiving and I did not get the memo.

Either way, we'll need to either stock up on Ammo or update our passports.

[Renée]

Hazbani, Michael Totten sent an email to Michael Young, opinion page editor at Beirut's "Daily Star" to see if the move into Lebanon by Syria was correct, and he said it was. Go read about it at Mr. Totten's blog:

http://michaeltotten.com/
Syria Invades Lebanon

"will continue to aim its guns at the "Israeli enemy"

Yeah, good idea. They are the ones invading your land at the moment, killing your ministers, funding your terrorist enemies etc. Keep your guns pointed that way while being invaded and ruled by Syria.

That way, when Hezb attacks Israel this summer, your army can run south to point its guns at Israel while Syria slips in and Israel destroys your army and the rest of your country courtesy of your Hezb's, your army, and your good Syrian neighbours, the retreats leaving Syria in control of Lebanon.

Good plan.

[Battal Agha]

Why do we keep playing the Ostrich?? Hiding our heads in the sand and not realizing that we are our own worst ennemy? As long as our leaders continue to finger Israel (as General Sleiman did) and avoid looking at the reality, then Lebanon is doomed and (sooner than later) will become Al Joumhouriyya al Islamiyya al Loubaniyya... (Hope this will NEVER materialize though...)

[Samir]

What if the battle over the presidency continues past September, and the country is further paralyzed? There's a real fear that the Lebanese government could once again split into two dueling administrations, as happened in 1988, when outgoing President Amin Gemayel appointed Aoun as a caretaker prime minister because Parliament could not agree on a new president. He created a largely Christian government, while the sitting Sunni prime minister refused to leave and led a rival Muslim administration. The crisis ended in October 1990, when Syrian warplanes bombed the presidential palace, driving Aoun into exile in France. It's remarkable how many Lebanese are talking openly today about the possibility of another government breakup; some are even resigned to it.

Splitting the country into two administrations in 1988 was a logical endpoint of the confessional system. Lebanese leaders are going down the same path once again: They're trying to run the country under a system that's no longer viable and that continues to create a perpetual crisis. Until the Lebanese can agree on a stronger and more egalitarian way to share authority, they will be cursed with instability, their future dictated by foreign powers.