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Wednesday, June 27, 2007

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Fe Fi Fo Fum I smell a RAT in the Ministry of Defence...hes big, nasty and looks like MURR! Maybe the first question that should be asked of Mr. Murr is "how soon can you pack up your office after we fire you?"

Accountability has just taken a massive nosedive and as usual not a peep from anyone in the media or from the inner circles of our own cabinet...boy oh boy am i surprised!

What do you expect from Murr the son? His dad still controlls everything.

Elias Murr and our "beloved" leaders: no degree of incompetence is enough to get rid of these people.

Among other idiocies, recall that as Interior Minister Murr once uttered that the privacy curtains at the voting booth were "optional".

Tell us something we don't know, AK :)

- Porous borders? Check
- Incompetent lying minister? Check
- No hope no the horizon? Check

Could anyone explain to me (and any other confused readers) what exactly the difference is between the myriad of security agencies in Lebanon? Where are there overlaps in powers/responsibilities. Where are there gaps? Which are political in nature, and which are supposed to serve the people?

I imagine they could be compared to the several the US has: CIA, DIA, FBI, etc.

I'm sure each serves its purpose, but in a country of only 4 million, it sure seems like the plague of state employees that Lebanon is notorious for.

Shunkleash, perhaps it is not Murr in this case that should be held accountable for the arms smuggling, but rather the "National Unionized Order of Lebanese Security Association Administration Brotherhood, Delta Chapter Central". Anyone ever heard of them... Nope? Nothing?

It is worrying how much is starting to come to light. Not that we didn't know. Just now it is officially documented.

It almost seems as if Mr. Murr was Mr. Murr Sr's (& Aoun's) inside man.

If only we had a system of checks and balances.
If only we had a system.

Checks and balances? What a novel concept in the Arab world. I don't think Arabs (and i hate to sound borderline racist here) get "checks and balances" or "accountability" at a cultural level.

There always seems to be this disconnect between our perception of what makes a desirable system, and what Europe, the West, the more modern world, perceives to be desirable.

Things like accountability have absolutely no meaning in the "tribal" culture we seem to suffer from. The tribal approach puts a premium on loyalty to your zaim, blood kin, sectarian leader, etc. over any form of accountability. I can't begin to tell you how many times I've heard someone say "Yes. I know he's wrong on this, but he's still my zaim

I recall a blog entry by (i think, apologies if i'm wrong) Perpetual Refugee, sometime last year, where he expressed frustration with this very subject during the course of a conversation with a shia person, who, although realizing Nasrallah had made mistakes, continued to insist on some sort of "but he's our Sayyed".

THAT mentality is why we have no checks and balances.

This government lacks the ability to govern. It is as simple as that. One gets the feeling that the whole government is a collection of Trojan Horses. Both Mr. Saniora and Sa'ad Hariri have never shown the will to take the tough decisions and to be willing to confront either Syria, Iran or any of their agents. Pity a nation whose leadership is clueless.

Ghassan, The trojan horse is a good analogy...I can see it now Lebanon as Troy, Saniora as King Pyrus and SAAAAAD as Casandra. Well not entirely:-) But yes every single member of the cabinet is potentially the man who opens the gates to TROY.

Hard to say...but I guess its not going to turn out exactly as planned back in 2005.


Well glad the U.N. cleared that one out. For a while there, I thought all these trucks sneaking in were loaded with tons of wealth and opportunities for the Lebanese and Syrian people!!...:-)

The dual interpretations of the sequence of events that led to the "suspension" of the Arab League effort at mediation is not unusual for Lebanon. We seem to always wind up with two competing naratives on each and every issue. Unfortunately these differences never resolve themselves but perpetuate the vision and stance that each side has taken.
But a miracle has just occured. The "opposition" has just admited, indirectly, that its members are the ones who have torpedoed the efforts of the Arab League and that the version of events as described by An Nahar and Al Mustaqbal were true. In todays Al Akhbar, the Syrian leaning news organ in Lebanon, has clearly stated that the Arab League has become a party to the Lebanese impasse by siding with March14. The newspaper went on to predict that the Arab League is preparing a report about the events in Lebanon that promises to be very critical of the opposition and in support of March 14. There you have it folks. The previous versions of the events that were disseminated by Al Akhbar and to a lesser extent As Safir turn out to be wrong. I am not particularly joyed by the positions that were supposedly accepted by March 14 but it seems that at least they did not feel the need to spread false scenarios about the events that could still lead to a resolution of the grim two government possibility.

Well this is maybe the first time I am happy at the lack of accountability in the Lebanese system. Reality check, firing Murr automatically brings down the government. Wouldn’t that be a smart move?

For the sake of clarity, I was not suggesting that he should be removed from the cabinet! I merely suggested that he be fired as minster of Defence and instead be appointed minister of Picking Up Garbage...!!

Murr could submit his resignation just like the Shia ministers before him. They are still signing documents and collecting their paychecks because their resignations have not been accepted by Siniora and Lahoud.

Political life in Lebanon has been 'paralyzed" by the oppositions demand for the cabinet to resign. It is also to be noted that many who are strongly opposed to the "opposition" also think that the present group of pols in Lebanon has demonstrated incompetence has lacked the ability to rule effectively . Since many on both sides of the political divide are not satisfied with the performance of the current Ministers then shouldn.t Mr. Saniora resign his post for the welfare of the country? I believe that it is time for Mr. Saniora to just pack up and leave for three reasons:
(1) No figure from the opposition should be capable of forming a cabinet that will get enough votes in the chamber of deputies.This should demonstrate the vulnerability of the opposition who are not in a position to rule.
(2) Given that no cabinet can get enough votes then the Chamber will become the defacto body that is in charge. If the Maech 14 are confident that they have the majority of the votes in the chamber then this should allow them to continue shaping policy.
(3) A new cabinet has to be formed as soon as a president is elected anyway. The new President will have to call , in 3-4 months, on a figure from the majority bloc to form a cabinet.

If the above is acted upon then such a development could arguably decrease the the tension between the opposition and March 14 and might provide new blood with a chance to rise, take a stand and lead the country out of its current morass.

Ghassan,

What fantasy world are you living in? New blood? What new blood? If Siniora resigns, who do you think the new PM will be? Who do you think the new president will be? New blood? No. More likely the same recycled old faces.
Secondly, what makes you think that the chamber will be the "body in charge"? In case you haven't noticed, the chamber is filled with the same incompetents you want gone. Not to mention that said chamber hasn't managed to MEET in several months now, thanks to being hijacked by it's speaker. What makes you think he'll magically convene this chamber to shape policy if the government was gone?

You are building your rationale on the premise of following the rules and laws of constitutionality. You should know by now that very premise does not apply (or rather, is ignored) in Lebanon. And without that premise, your entire argument falls apart.

Ghassan,

You gotta be kidding, or drinking, or both..right??....:-)

I think Ghassan's been abducted and replaced by his evil clone, inhabited by the ghost of Jeha...

Any one have the link to the article in Le Monde about the meeting of April 24th between Bashar Asad and Ban Ki-moon?

BV,

I'll take that as a compliment.

Ghassan's suggestion is only reasonable if we consider that conflict appears the only possible outcome.

Such actions will only precipitate conflict, and the division of the country.

Le monde article:

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-3218,36-928936@51-912531,0.html

BV/Charlie,
To the best of my knowledge I have not been abducted (Does one know with certainty that one has not been abducted?) and I am a non-smoker:-) Lend me your ears/eyes one more time:
A new Lebanese Cabinet has to be formed in less than five months. If the current Lebanese government resigns then by the time its resignation is accepted and by the time it leaves office the prospective government will have only around four months to rule. The real question then becomes who is going to form the new governments. There is no way that a Karami or anyone else from the "opposition" camp can form a government and HA knows that. That is precisely why they have only called for Mr. Saniora to reshuffle the current government to give them and their allies a bigger voice. They have never called for a PM from their ranks. But we can also assume that no one openly aligned with March 14 will be asked by Mr. Lahoud to head the cabinet. So where does this leave us? The only workable choice will be to tap a respected independent politician whose political fortunes are not tied to either March 14 or the "opposition". Such a government could conceivably be formed totally from individuals who are not in the Parliament and their short term in office , less than four months, will be spent to reinvegorate civil society , tone down the level of political debate and prepare the groundwork for an orderly Presidential election. This kind of an experiment has been tried before and the Mikati government did an acceptable job under difficult circumstances.
The above scenario has to work because nothing else will. This also implies that the new President must not be openly allied with any of the major political blocs. A President is to represent all Lebanese and I will never accept the proposition that the only qualified people for the office are political lackeys of one side or another. Lebanon does not need anyway either a Aoun or a Geagea not even a Harb or a N. Lahoud. Actually there is a lot to be said for a Lebanese President that will transcend the crass political divisions and side only with the interests of the country and its constitution.The President is much more likely to take positions that favour sovereignty, modernity and democratic ideals the lesser are his/her political debts to one political patron saint or the other.
We cannot afford to continue this current political impasse. It is high time that we show courage in our fellow citizens, our institutions and ourselves by making a small change that could pay large dividends.

Whether Ghassan has been abducted by aliens or not doesn't matter. As far as I'm concerned, he (or the aliens) presented a logical argument.

I had argued something similar to Gus in the past, though I am not sure what the legal ramifications are pre- and post-prez election.

A resigned cabinet, would defuse tensions and put the pressure on the court of Lahoud/Hezbo/Aoun.

It would also continue to be the EXECUTIVE until a new cabinet is formed, and the new one cannot come without M14 approval and votes.


Questions are:

-a resigned cabinet can run current affairs, but is limited in initiating "new" things I think. I am not sure what that entails, though if they can still deal with the tribunal and order the army around, they may want to go for it.

-if Lahoud's term expires with no new president and the current cabinet is "resigned" what does that mean (with or without a second gvmnt)?

Ghassan,

Still, I think you're making assumptions about everyone sticking to the rule of law.

For instance, you say:
The only workable choice will be to tap a respected independent politician whose political fortunes are not tied to either March 14 or the "opposition".

No, there are other choices: Keep the country paralyzed by refusing to name any government that's not acceptable to the opposition (the infamous "national unity" crap we've been hearing about for months now).
They've had no qualms paralyzing cabinet AND parliament. What makes you think they're gonna "have no choice but to tap a respected independent" ???

Then, you say:

The above scenario has to work because nothing else will. This also implies that the new President must not be openly allied with any of the major political blocs. A President is to represent all Lebanese and I will never accept the proposition that the only qualified people for the office are political lackeys of one side or another.

Lest you forget, the Lebanese politicians don't care about things working! You say this is the only thing that will work. Sure. But there is the alternative of simply having things stop working. The opposition has already accomplished that to a large degree with parliament. Again, what makes you think they're gonna go with somethnig that 'works'?

As for your comments about the president...Sure, YOU will never accept the proposition of him being a lackey, or being aligned with a given party. But since when do our politicos care what YOU think? 90% of our presidents throughout history HAVE been party affiliated, and HAVE been lackey. You suddenly think that just because YOU won't accept that anymore they're gonna do things differently?

I still think your entire argument is based on faulty logic.

Josey:

I'll reiterate what i just said for Ghassan, with some additions.

Did you forget that it took 6 months to form the new cabinet last time around? Thanks to the inane process we have?
Let's say Saniora's cabinet resigned. Let's say forming a new government drags it's feet, with no particular rush by Lahoud or the opposition to agree to anything, just like they did last time.
The existing cabinet cannot conduct new business, and can just operate in crippled "caretaker" fashion in teh meantime.
What have you accomplished?

Our parliament is already crippled.
Our president is crippled (not doing his job of signing decrees, etc.)
Now your cabinet is crippled too. Although they all keep getting paid of course....

Sept. 25th rolls in with no government...Berri sabotages the elections and Lahoud appoints Aoun or Suleiman as PM (much like 1989).

Now the opposition doesn't even have to contend with having caused a 2 government scenario, because they can just claim that the Saniora government is resigned. So THEY're government (under Aoun or whoever) gets to take charge.

Fantastic!

Brilliant!

Bad,

I am not talking about a new gvmnt, but about the current one staying "resigned" (and yes crippled, but like u said it's alteady crippled, so?)

I have not thought out the whole thing as I am not sure what "caretaker" duties include or exclude. Much of my (weak) argument depends on "caretaker" prerogatives.

There may be many negatives and they could be big. I have an open mind.

But I think it is worth investigating.

The gvmnt is already a "caretaker" except of course when they venture to show their complete idiocy by changing the holiday schedule in the midst of war and a wave of assassinations targeting them.

On the plus side, resignation would ease tensions (though also be seen as FURTHER weakness) but Lahoud would have to consult and appoint a M14 PM.

Also, Berri would have no excuse to keep parliament shut down.

On the outside chance we get a new PM, he can include Shia minister and get a majority in Parliament, that would (relatively) shut up Lahoud and Hezbo and Berri.

It would also remove the threat of a second gvmnt, it could bring Aoun closer to M14 etc...

Berri has no excuse to keep parliament shutdown now either. Didn't stop him. You're putting too much credit into "excuses" and "legal justifications".

Don't forget these guys have absolutely NO PROBLEM ignoring the law and the constitution.
Lahoud does not HAVE to consult parliament for a new PM. He can very well appoint a military guy or whatever, like Gemayel did with Aoun back in 89, citing the fact that parliament is not convening to elect a new pres. It can be done.

In the meantime - President Bush signed a Proclamation today banning any Lebanese or Syrians from entry into the USA for 'undermining the stability of Lebanon and its fragile Western-backed government.' I'm guessing this is going to include anyone who supports or participates in a '2nd government' - along with every member of their family. You can read the whole thing on the White House news feed.

Guys,

Just read this on DailyStar...Once again the infamous Naim Qassem tells it like it is:

Qassem said the opposition was "keen" on taking part in presidential polls in September, "for we want to be partners in choosing the next president."

"However," he asked, "if a national unity government is not formed by then, how will presidential elections run smoothly?"

Qassem said Hizbullah had informed Arab League chief Amr Moussa last week that "the key to ensuring true partnership and consequently to solving all pending issues in Lebanon is a national unity government."

Read between the lines: No preisdential elections unless they get their national unity government FIRST.

It gets better...this guy never ceases to amaze me:

During his speech, Qassem accused the ruling coalition of working to govern Lebanon through "international support and international laws rather than Lebanese public support."

Try and wrap your mind around that one!!! I guess we don't give a damn about international laws, huh?

This is a request for information and it is off-topic. Could someone supply a link to the latest poem by M. Darwish about the June Gaza events. The one in which he bemoans the fact that during the 40th anniversary of the great defeat we (Palestinians) could not find someone to defeat us again and so we defeated ourselves... Tnx in advance.

Bad,

You're right: they don't care about the law. You're wrong: Lahoud cannot appoint just anyone. He is BOUND clearly by the constitution to select whomever the parliamentary majority recommends (no wiggle room).


As to Qassem, Gus

how will presidential elections run smoothly

I guess that's a veiled threat otherwise someone should tell Qassem the election could be over in half an hour.


Finally, our own toilet-paper constitution says we are beholden to international law. (The Taef const. is very specific on the superfluous and poetic garbage, and very vague on important things)


You just proved my point for me, Josey. In one statement you say "He is bound by the constitution". And then you follow that up with "our own toilet-paper constitution says we are beholden to international law." (which Hezb seems to not give a rat's ass about).

What makes you think Lahoud will follow the abovementioned "binding" that he consult with parliament to appoint a PM?
Last I check, the constitution also BOUND all sorts of things that he and others have ignored. Why do you think they'll stick to it this time?

For a somewhat decent analysis on what the opposition hopes to achieve, under a scenario like the one you and Ghassan describe, check out Blacksmith Jade's latest entry:

http://blacksmithsoflebanon.blogspot.com/2007/06/breaking-in-two-cabinet.html

A 2 government situation (with complete disregard for what the constitution binds Lahoud to do in teh first place), with the REAL goal being a complete crippling of the UN and UNIFIL's role (again, note the links that Blacksmith makes there...UNIFIL will HAVE to deal with both governments for logistical reasons, specially since they operate in the south. Making it IMPOSSIBLE for them to choose sides (or back Saniora or whoever the M14 PM ends up being).

This scenario basically accomplishes what the opposition has been seeking this entire time (as Anton Efendi has been warning time and again): torpedo the UN tribunal and UNIFIL. This is what it's all about. Whoever "controls" (and i use that term loosely) the "legitimate" government, controls UNIFIL and the tribunal. If you put 2 "legitimate" governments in place and make it impossible for the international community to pick one, or deal with only one, all the UN issues get crippled.

According to MP Boutros Hareb in “Kalam el Nas”, Lahoud is bound by the parliament’s majority when choosing the next PM, however, Lahoud can refuse to sign on any government if the PM does not assign people to the president’s liking to the different cabinets: i.e. Lahoud can block the formation of a new government until kingdom come.

Traffic,
"Lahoud can block the formation of a new government until kingdom come."
Don't forget that in this case "kingdom come is less than five months. Actually by the time the current government resigns and the initial consultations are completed it is more like four months. Meanwhile the caretaker government goes on until the Chamber of Deputies takes over, and that will be even less acceptable to Lahoud.

Ghassan,
I don't have the link to the Darwish poem but somebody sent it to me in an email. It was published in the Palestinian paper AL-Ayam. The URL for the paper is http://www.al-ayyam.ps/znews/site/default.aspx. If you can't get it through there, let me know and I can forward the email to you. Janan

Ghassan,
Here is the direct link:
http://www.al-ayyam.ps/znews/site/template/Doc_View.aspx?did=58706&Date=6/17/2007

Ghassan,
I do agree with you on condition that the opposition would be willing to play by the rules. For the opposition and HA in particualr, any president that would likely endanger their hold on the country is absolutely unacceptable, and they are willing to commit to any course of action to prevent that from happening. Just as they brought the whole country to a stand still to prevent the formation of the international tribunal, they are just as well willing to do it all over again. In a way it is a hopeless situation. Still, undermining Saniora and the government, despite all their mistakes, would not help at all improve the situation.

Janan,
I do not know your personal e amil and so , as much as I do not like abusing AK's hospitality, I have no choice but to use B2B as a medium for a personal message. I could not get the Palestinian Al Ayyam link to work and I would appreciate a copy of the Darwish poem. Thanks Janan.

gkaram@pace.edu

Janan,
Ther is no need to send me the Darwish poem. I have just printed it fro the Al-Ayyam archives. I guess that the site must have been down this morning. Thank you for all your help. BTW, I love the line:
"How we Lied when we said: We are an exception!"

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