The Lebanese-Syrian war

On November 10th, 2005, Bashar Assad informally declared war on Lebanon in a speech before his "parliament". In that speech, he called Fouad Siniora a slave that takes orders from the United States, and accused him of turning Lebanon into a "factory" of anti-Syrian plots. He described the first UNIIIC report of being part of a pre-conceived plot to destabilize Syria and punish it for its "Arab nationalist" stance, and for its support for what he called the "Lebanese and Palestinian resistance".

In his opinion, Syria was faced with two options: resistance or chaos. Resistance, he said, was the cheapest of the two alternatives. In an alarmingly threatening tone reminiscent of Ahmadinejad's call to wipe Israel off the map, he warned that the smallest damage to Syria will have dire consequences on the entire region and on "the agents who brought the colonialist".

In what can only be interpreted as a call to mobilize his Lebanese supporters, Assad expressed confidence that Lebanon's salvation will come through historical remembrance and at the hands of the "national forces" that struck down past agreements with Israel and fought the Israeli occupation. He singled out "Tripoli al-Sham" for its "historic stance", forgetting that that city was nearly destroyed by the Syrian army in the 1980s.

The reference to Tripoli at the time seemed strange. Little did we know that a plan was underway to annex Tripoli, at least politically, to Syria, by turning it into a haven for terrorists.

It was a multi-stage plan. Hizbullah was assigned the south, the Bekaa and downtown Beirut, Jund El Sham and the PFLP-GC had Sidon, and the coastal highway. Fatah Intifada and its spin-offs had the north. Every step of the way, Hizbullah wasted no time defending Palestinian weapons, inside and outside the camps. The objective was obvious: returning Lebanon to Syria's orbit, and safeguarding Hizbullah's weapons.

In October 2005, this blog carried the following information:

The Syrian confrontation (or war) plan seems straight out of the Lord of the Rings, with the "dark lords" of Syria, helped by "strategic partner" Iran, preparing to unleash an army of Islamist and radical Palestinian orcs that they have been breeding for a good number of years.

Al-Watan al-Arabi quotes unnamed sources as saying Hizbullah could be a main partner in this Syrian-Iranian plan of attack. In any case, the Party of God is very far from being disarmed. In fact, al-Watan reports, they have just received a new shipment of weapons and rockets that were stored in the Bekaa and the south.

The Syrian leadership has also been mobilizing pro-Syrian Palestinian factions in Lebanon and Palestine. Large amounts of weapons were smuggled into Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon and hundreds of elements from the Yarmouk camp in Syria are on standby for deployment to Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli and Bekaa refugee camps. Ahmad Jibril, head of Iranian-backed PFLP-GC and Abu Moussa, head of Fateh-Intifada were assigned the task of mobilizing thousands of elements and taking over Palestinian decision-making in the camps.

Al-Shiraa confirmed that the PFLP-GC in Deir al-Ghazal has received weapons and ammunition through entry points in the border region of Wadi al-Asha'ir. The smuggling reportedly took place under the supervision of Syrian officer Samih al-Qashmaii who was stationed in Dhour el-Shoueir prior to the withdrawal.

Many of the Palestinian refugee camps have already fallen under the control of these factions and other Islamist groups such as Jund al-Sham.

Jund Al-Sham answers directly to Syrian military intelligence, according to al-Shiraa, which quoted Security sources as saying that Palestinians from the Yarmouk camp have been added to their ranks. The latest outbreak of violence between Jund al-Sham and the Nassirites in Sidon seems to indicate that that the ranks of the once small Ain-el-Helweh-based islamists are swelling with manpower and new weapons.

Jund al-Sham is one of many Islamist organizations that were nurtured by the Syrian regime. According to reports in al-Watan, and a recent French police report, the Iranian revolutionary guard has been training Islamists in camps in Iraq, Syria and the Bekaa in Lebanon.

…The Lebanese authorities are obviously aware of the above, and this explains the recent confrontation with the PFLP-GC and Fateh-Intifada in the Bekaa, and the arrest of the Abdel- Al brothers.

The Syrian-Iranian plan, if allowed to go into effect, will turn Lebanon into another Iraq. The Syrian regime would much rather opt for brinksmanship than lose power or be weakened.

Again, the above was posted in October 2005. On November 13, when Hizbullah was still in the cabinet, and shortly after Bashar's war declaration, I reported the following:

I used to think that Hizbullah’s participation in the government was a positive development. But Hizbullah has been using it to bully the cabinet and obstruct any attempt to refocus policies away from a destructive subservience to Syrian ones… It is safe to say they are using their new power to obstruct and buy time for the cornered Syrian regime, and for themselves. Siniora even had to postpone the international donor's conference because Hizbullah and Amal still view foreign aid as a form of international hegemony.

Citing an American security official, al-Shiraa reported in its 14 November issue that security officials from Hizbullah and Amal continue to hold regular meetings with their Syrian intelligence counterparts in Damascus to coordinate strategies. Hizbullah is also reportedly providing logistical support to Iranian intelligence officers, who are monitoring “the political and security developments” in Lebanon from their headquarters at the Iranian embassy. In countries where rule of law and some degree of healthy patriotism prevail, this amounts to treason.

Meanwhile, Islamists continue to pour into the country from Syria, taking up positions in the refugee camps of Ein el-Helweh and Borj Barajneh and in the north of the country. The word on the street is that it is a matter of time before these groups, funded by Iran and supported by Syria, begin blowing up hotels and other places in Lebanon. Al-Shiraa mentions the “Ansar Allah” group, headed by former Fateh official Jamal Suleiman, as one such group that is training militants in al-Sufsaf in Ein el-Helweh and forming cells in other camps in Tyre and Beirut. The Lebanese weekly also reported that the “al-Da’wa al-Salafiya” group headed by “Abu Ibrahim” is “holding meetings in Tripoli with a group of Pakistani Salafists.”

All this was in 2005. In 2007, An-Nahar reported that Fatah al-Islam was indeed planning to blow up hotels, in a plot the newspaper called a "Lebanese September 11".

Of course, the Syrian plan had several setbacks. There was the Israeli war which culminated in UNSC 1701. And more recently, UNSC 1757 establishing the Hariri tribunal. The Syrian-Hizbullah plot received another major blow: The Lebanese army went south and recently, north. Moreover, the army is now a factory of national heroes that puts Hizbullah's selective "resistance" to shame, and taints the unholy alliance between the "opposition" and the Assad regime.

One could argue that Hizbullah and Syria have failed to destroy the March 14 government and obstruct the tribunal, but this does not mean they will stop trying. The plan to retake Lebanon is in full swing, and it is clear that the opposition have chosen Syria's side in this Lebanese-Syrian war.

Hizbullah officials have rejected Siniora's call on Nasrallah to help convince Fatah al-Islam to surrender, saying that they are not concerned with security in the country, and accusing the government of launching this battle to serve American interests. More despicably, Hizbullah deputy Hassan Fadlallah, who would normally describe a fly killed by the Israeli army as "martyr", used the term "killed" when referring to the Lebanese army soldiers slaughtered by Fatah al-Islam, and raised questions about the significance of their death.  Here it is in Arabic:

ثم تحدث النائب فضل الله فرأى في دعوة الرئيس فؤاد السنيورة للامين العام لـ"حزب الله" السيد حسن نصرالله الى المساعدة لاقناع "فتح الاسلام" بالتسليم "تضليلاً كبيراً للرأي العام". وقال: "بدل ان نطلب نحن من هذه السلطة ان تقدم الى اللبنانيين كشف حساب لنعرف كيف قتل ابناؤنا واخوتنا في الجيش وكيف اقترف ما اقترف بحق هذا الجيش، وكيف فتحت هذه المعركة ولحساب من، وبأي تخطيط ومن اتى بهؤلاء ومن امّن لهم البيئة المؤاتية والمناخ السياسي والامني، واين كانت عيون السلطة لتغيب عما حضر في تلك المنطقة، فإذا برأس هذه السلطة يطالبنا نحن بأن نساعده، وكأننا نحن المسؤولون عن الامن او كأننا نحن المعنيون مباشرة بذلك".

Hizbullah, Amal and their delusional adjunct Michel Aoun are now calling on the executive authority in the land to resign in the middle of a war by the Assad regime.  More specifically, Nabih Berri responded to March 14's "historic settlement" initiative with a call on Siniora to resign. Michel Aoun reiterated that same call, from his former exile, Paris.

When Lebanon was being attacked by Israel, because of Hizbullah's unilateral actions, the entire country stood behind the south, its residents, and many even backed its "resistance" against their better judgment. Not even March 14 found it appropriate to discuss Hizbullah's illegal weapons at a time of war. Today, the north and potentially the south (Ain El Helweh's Jund al-Sham have started another front) and the entire country are being attacked by proxies of a foreign nation. The government was not in Israel during the shelling of the suburb, but Hizbullah and Amal officials were in Damascus meeting with Iranians and Syrians when Lebanese soldiers were being slaughtered. Instead of genuinely backing the army, Berri, Nasrallah, and Aoun – and don't let the latter's false patriotism fool you—want the country to capitulate. One day, history will record how these despicable beings have sold their countrymen for a few rockets and a couple of chairs. 

Comments

[LebExile]

Abu Kais,

That was an excellent article, and their actions truly make the blood boil. The most disturbing thing about this all is that the actions of Berri, Hassen, Aoun clearly amount to treason against the state - and yet no one has the guts to call them on it...

why cant a military prosecutor go on TV and declare that so and so's actions amount to treason and is now wanted by the state for interrogation... or file actual charges against them...

It's has become a complete joke, we cry out for soverignty, independance and freedom, but, protecting your soverignty also includes jailing anyone who is committing treason against the state...

These terrorists sent by Syria have killed scores of Lebanese military personnel and civilians... This is a declaration of war against the state and government...

Not only should they protect their soverignty, there should be an emergency session of the parliament as well as cabinet so that these matters can be discussed.

Berri's excuse for not calling a session of the Parliament has passed, his actions from now are a deriliction of duty, he should either get back to work, or be replaced.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, there is only so much a person can take...

BTW - great to see you back

Regards

[The Perpetual Refugee]

AK, you are my hero.
So very well analyzed, and written from the (bleeding) heart.

"One day, history will record how these despicable beings have sold their countrymen for a few rockets and a couple of chairs."

I hope so Abu K. But until that happens all of Lebanon (and much of the rest of the world) will need this blog, and those like it, to shine a light on those dark schemes and the ludicrous propaganda that accompanies them, hatched by Syria's and Iran's hounds in the country.

Keep it up, you're doing an excellent job!

[Blacksmith Jade]

Oops, I forgot to sign the above comment :P

[Louis-Noel Harfouche]

AK, thank you for this superb summary of evidence!

I agree with LE, and I have emitted similar ideas earlier, as have BV and many others here and elsewhere.. The time for wringing hands and extending olive branches etc.. is OWVAH. I'd tell M14 it is high time for DECISIVE action and unyielding NATIONAL RESOLVE, girls. I can't believe that those clowns still have the time and stomach for silly innuendo and allusions; NAME freaging names man, and stop wobbling. It's nice that you're still willing to "turn the other cheek" ladies, however, where is it written that you have to be all swollen and puffed up to go to heaven?? Make a stand and take some meaningful action for once:

1- Close all border crossings between Lebanon and Syria, cut off all official contacts with that racket, and lodge of a formal complaint at the UN against the Syrian Arab "Republic" (and at the "Arab" League if you must, although I would also recommend Lebanon's official withdrawal from that useless outfit until it resolves to take firm action against Syria).
2- Declare martial law, seize all illegal weapons, dissolve all local militias and foreign armed elements, and outlaw ALL political parties with foreign allegiences (e.g. Hizbollah, Baath, SSNP, Mvmt. of Arab Nationalists, Nasserites, and other such useless rubbish) and summarily arrest all and any who won't comply;
3- Issue Arrest Warrants against all officials, politicians, party leaders, and (swimming-champ) Presidents suspected of high treason (innocent until proven guilty, of course, but under arrest until proven innocent by military tribunals.)

Nothing short of a complete shakedown will lead us to anything except more of the same! We keep treading softly in this neighborhood ("small steps" as someone put it earlier), and before we know it the whole of Lebanon will be trampled underfoot! Lebanon is in a predatory neighborhood folks; this ain't Norway! Small baby steps will turn you into road-kill!

[Don Cox]

"Lebanon is in a predatory neighborhood folks; this ain't Norway!"

Well, Norway was in a predatory neighborhood in 1940. The traitor Quisling was Norwegian.

As for the "complete shakedown" you advocate, the question was whether the Lebanese Army was either strong or reliable enough to do anything. I think it will emerge stronger from the current events, but it still could not take on Hezb'allah and Syria.

Good article, AK.

[Vulcan]

The patriotic Lebanese and that includes all the M 14 alliance should carry arms and help the Lebanese Army/Government in this undeclared war, we can call it the Lebanese Resistance, who said only Hizballah gets to resist just like they claim to protect Lebanon against their one and only enemy, the rest of us will protect Lebanon against the Syrian enemy.
its time to put the cards on the table and call it like it is.

[vox]

Syria can create anarchy and war through Lebanese proxies, but not through non-Lebanese. Palestinians and Arab extremists can certainly create trouble, but they cannot topple the government because they lack popular support.

[Battal Agha]

Bravo AK, excellent article and very good analysis. I do hope now that the true lebanese will wake up and will back up their government and their armed forces against these thugs that are trained and armed by Syria and Iran.
Hassan Nasrallah, Emile Lahoud, Nabih Berry and the other "syrian" agents should be arrested and tried for treason.

[JoseyWales]

Don Cox,

Quisling never had much support/influence inside Norway and, if he did, that did not last beyond the WWII war years.

Traitors have been running loose (if not running the country) since 1969 at least.

Syria (and others) are killing people, sending bombs, weapons and agents, undermining every state institution for over 30 years.

People like Lou-Noel, myslef, and others sound like loons to the "realists", the leftists, and the biz types who worry about the next tourist season.

After 30 years of constant daily threats, what country on the planet would not declare martial law or a state of emergency?

Don, you are right the army, ain't much. But like you say, it will get better by doing and what alternatives are there??

[Bad Vilbel]

I've been saying "Martial law" and "Arrest the traitors" for well over a year now. I'm glad more people are starting to come around to that non-compromising position.
Although compromise is usually the desired way of resolving problems, there are some issues that are simply non-negotiable and not open to compromise: The state's sovereignty. The state's institutions. The rule of law. etc.

[Jeha]

AK,

Darn it. That was a scary overview; you are confirming me in my fears that this mess is nothing but a dress rehearsal, with worse to come. Indeed, I find unsettling that both Hezb and the supporters of Salafis refuse to use the word "martyr" when describing the Army's dead. At the very least, this is a misjudgment, as anyone outside Hezb's ranks will view it as more than a vocabulary slip-up.

It is also unsettling that most of the dead are from Akkar, and mostly Sunni, out of proportion with their representation in the army. Is the army inching back to Gemayel/Aoun times, with sectarian-centered units?

With the increase bombings, there is another worrying side-effect; more talk about raising "auxiliary" units that will "support" the Army. This risks awakening old scars; last time we had such "auxiliaries", we were neck deep in the Liberation war...

Wars are easy to start, but they get worse as the miscalculations of different sides pile up and amplify one another. The Syrians better not rejoice too much; contrary to 1975, this one could have very real risks of "blowback" in their face...

[another_someone]

Can you explain the "auxiliary" issue for this reader? I would imagine they are the army reserve force?

Your country is in a crisis, so isn't it normal to call upon more troops?

Thanks.

[maverick]

I agree completely with Aks analysis and the argument behind this whole thread,but in practicallity,what would be the implications or consequences of going after Nasrallah? and the goons?how will 2 million lebanese citizens attest to that? The army surely does not have the capability,and if march 14 supporters supported the army,then we would have a civil war bloodbath.
Not to mention that Nasrallah is not a mere individual,but an extension of an individuals ego and identity.Arresting Nasrallah will cause chaos and violence.