Hizbullah's choices and Lahoud's white suit

Hizbullah's mouthpieces, Nabil Qawook and Hussein Hajj Hassan, have been going around their towns denying they ever approved Siniora's seven point plan (which they did, at least until the Iranians had their say), and accusing the government of committing a "crime" against the Shia community for depriving it of being part of the decision making process (source: LBC May 6). At the same time, their supreme leader told Iranian TV that he doesn't need permission from anyone – government or people-- to keep his weapons and wage war on Israel. It doesn't take a great analyst to figure out what Hizbullah wants, which I won't repeat, having said it here so many times before.

But if that's what Hizbullah wants from the country's government, what choices is it giving the Shia community? There are only two choices: Jihad or marginalization. Because they are not being offered the role of Lebanese citizens, they are made to look like terrorists from another land, running their own show at the expense of others. Sadly, Hizbullah has reversed decades of activism, not to mention war, and brought the Shias of Lebanon back to where they started: marginalized, and with no real say in domestic issues other than to obstruct. Deep down Nabih Berri must realize the damage Hizbullah is causing. But then, why bother speculate about Berri's feelings, when he doesn't have the courage to stop living off of the mullahs' excrements.

Hizbullah's rejection of Siniora's plan comes as the international community is reportedly trying to place the Shebaa farms under UN control—with the hopes they could rob Hizbullah of an excuse to launch wars of liberations. The militia's response was swift—a rejection of the plan, and a statement by Nasrallah to the effect that nothing will make him give up his weapons. The Syrian response was quick too. After refusing to hand over documents proving the identity of the farms, and refusing to delineate the border area, the Assad regime, through its representative Emile Lahoud, objected to the proposed transfer (something about water), and assured the world that even if the UN took over, the "resistance" would not give up its weapons because "we are still at war with Israel" (source: LBC News May 6).

Many would love to see Lahoud fight Israel in his shiny white suit and permanent tan. Does he even have time to command a battalion into war, in between swimming, toning his aging muscles and entertaining gentlemen callers? Do the young men of Hizbullah have any use for him and his speedos on the battleground? I hope Lahoud realizes how useless he sounds every time he publicly delegates his duty as a "commander" of the armed forces to a religious militia. One thing is for sure. People like Lahoud would not survive a Hizbullah country.

Update. On a related note, check out Tony's post, Full Circle: Hezbollah Returns to the 80s.

Comments

[fubar]

(AK, this post is not directed at you. You are right, if Lebanon wins, the Shia, all Shia, will lose and it will take much work to rebuild bridges.)

I dropped out of the “real democracy” conversation on the prior thread because I tired of beating my head against the proverbial brick wall.

Random thoughts...

"Every nation deserves the government it has." -- Ayatollah Khomeini.

"The Ministry cannot protect the stupid [from themselves]." -- Dr. Mohammed Khalifeh, the resigned minister of health.

Seemly disconnected, but then again ...

Not to argue with the inspired wisdom of Khomeini, but just this once cannot Lebanon rise above what it deserves. It is not everyday that Lebanon has the support of a vast portion of the international community and the financial backing of the United States, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, the EU. Isn’t it time the Lebanese people reached for more, yes, maybe even more than they deserve?

As anyone who actually knows what motivates Hezbollah knows, Hezbollah will lie, cheat, and steal, even kill ... anything to make sure that Lebanon has the government that Hezbollah thinks it deserves. Siniora’s 7 point plan and 1701 was agreed to by Hezbollah only for the purpose of stopping the Israeli assault. An agreement made with an infidel Zionist regime and an illegitimate world body. “Torn pieces of paper.” For Hezbollah, such promises are mere lies told to achieve an immediate goal, only to be denied outright, denied to be legitimate, or ignored when it suits them later.

Hezbollah will take advantage of every and any weakness which M14 shows. When will the Lebanese ex-patriots figure out that you cannot be for M14 while you incessantly berate its leaders and every move they make or don't make? You do not know everything. You are not privy to their plans. Yet, you feel free to be armchair quarterbacks, ridiculing M14 and Hezbollah equally. This somehow makes you superior to the lowly, ignorant Lebanese in Lebanon? No, I think this makes you aiders and abettors in the selling out of Lebanon to Hezbollah.

Tear down the men who stand between Lebanon and the Islamic Republic of Lebanon and you are, in your own small way, as much as assist in handing Hezbollah its state.

Ex-pats should be beacons of light, not purveyors of doom and gloom. Strip the hope from the Lebanese and you might as well just turn out the light, close the door, and walk away from Lebanon.

You are all nice enough people but sometimes I am taken aback by how cavalierly you place the exhibition of your own "brilliance" and "wisdom" above the interests of the Lebanon you claim to want. What difference does it make if Lebanon is “ready” for “real democracy” or not? If Lebanon does not survive this showdown with Hezbollah, it will not matter.

May Lebanon never know the darkness that awaits because, no matter how much you will want it to be so, the darkness does not just fade away.

/End rant. Carry on.

[LebExile...]

Fubar...

We are not merely purveyors of doom and gloom, especially such a great blog as AK's here, what this open discussion does is not tear away hopes for a better Lebanon, we in fact bring more hope. We rationally and logically disect their different actions and words, we expose their intentions and lies, we attempt to reason with those on the opposing side, bring them to our side - not cast them as traitors or villians....

The best way Hezbollah will win and maintain their hold on the Shia community is by fear - they are not stupid - they know what Hezballah has and has not done, they know also that the majority of the other communities blame them for the follies of Hezbollah...

we want to bring the shia - those that want to come - to our side - a side that is neither pro-Iran or pro-USA - one that is simply pro-Lebanon (does such a side even still exist)..

we do that by talking and reasoning - not by saying everything is fine and dandy.

Lebanon is approaching one of those pivotal moments in it's history - where current events will set the stage for events years into the future... I would say there have been only a few such pivotal events in the history of modern Lebanon - probably 1943, 1958, 1975 and 2007!

I guess we'll wait and see.

[ghassan karam]

The current twist in the never ending Lebanese stand-off is another clear illustration, as if we needed any, of how useless and nonproductive it can be to conduct negotiations in the absence of "good faith". The outcome under such circumstances becomes predictable "Give them an inch and they take a mile".
Fubar,
To pretend that a problem does not exist and to become preoccupied in addressing the superficial is a recipe for disaster. The only way to deal with a problem meaningfully is to go to its roots. The idea that an SOB is acceptable because he is our SOB ought never be considered as an option.

[frankyb]

"Hezbollah will take advantage of every and any weakness which M14 shows. When will the Lebanese ex-patriots figure out that you cannot be for M14 while you incessantly berate its leaders and every move they make or don't make? ridiculing M14 and Hezbollah equally. This somehow makes you superior to the lowly, ignorant Lebanese in Lebanon? No, I think this makes you aiders and abettors in the selling out of Lebanon to Hezbollah."
Really,its not a case of who? wether his our SOB or theirs.I think weve reached the point were they are ALL SOB.The question is what these SOB stand for?Lets not be like the opposition and fuss over every little thing M14 does and does not do.From an expat point of view,the political situation in Lebanon is extremely vital for the future of the country.It seems to me these corrupt,wealthy,incompetent bastards with blood on their hands seem to work together for a blue sky tomorrow,while the piuos men who do not lie,have shed blood for the country,and fight for an honourable cause will give us black skys tomorrow.Dont care about personal resumes,care for tomorrow,need to get back to homeland.....long live M14.

[frankyb]

i failed to mention the quote was from FUBAR,see above.and that i agreed with it totally.We have these political discussions here in sydney all the time with freinds of mine who happen to be from all over lebanon ,representing all the sects,and it bothers me that most of the time im trying to justify what M14 is doing....thats not the issue,they need to prevail first and foremost before we can start rebuilding a sound nation,cos right now M14 is the only thing keeping Lebanon alive from those who hold the banner of destruction and eternal doom.

[Ace]

fubar said:
"If Lebanon does not survive this showdown with Hezbollah, it will not matter." This is exactly what it is - a showdown to see who will control Lebanon and if Hez wins (forget the tool, Aoun) then Lebanon will cease to be as you know it. Everyone is so afraid of the 'civil war' that Hez is constantly threatening that they just continue to let him slowly lead Lebanon into an abyss there may be no way out of. It's past time to take a stand - I have to believe that when 'push comes to shove' the people of Lebanon will choose Democracy over Hezbollah rule and war.

[ghassan karam]

The way I see it , it is not whether HA can win. We have discussed this matter at length many a time and I will not bore anyone with the details. The conclusion , from my point of view, is that HA cannot win and will not win. A victory for HA is not in the cards. What is at stake is who will stand up to HA and who what will guide the country once this stand-off is over, I do not see the present leadership ever having the courage to take a stand for what is right. They have already given away too much. My sense is that the current leadership will be replaced by new blood that is more courageous, carries less baggage and is more more forward looking. The real struggle is whether we are to accept a victory, an assured one, over HA and go back to the anciene regime or whether we are to turn over a new leaf and start the task of building a pluralistic democratic society on strong bases. The change will not occur unless the masses ask for it. Time will tell whether we will be satisfied by going back to the comfort of what we used to have or whether we are strong enough to build a new society.

[frankyb]

The masses are already moved...and some have moved all the way out of lebanon.Be it physical or mental the movement of the masses is undeniable.Post 2005 has witnessed huge shifts,the seeds have been sown...and nothing can stop it....except Syrian puppets and Iranian proxies...and the occasional zionist superiority complex.

[BadVilbel]

I think some of us are getting on Fubar's nerves with our pessimism.

I'd just like to say, Fubar, that there are 2 distinct things here: There is what we WANT to happen, and then there is what history teaches us is the most likely think to happen. And they are not necessarily the same.

I think people like Ghassan, Josey Wales and myself all WANT M14 to win. We all want HA to go away. We all WANT Lebanon to turn the corner and become a true state, with a functioning Democracy of some sort, where the will of the people is obeyed. But while we root for this future vision and hope for it to pass, we also do not live in a fantasy world. We know our leaders and our people well enough to make an educated guess as to what is most likely to happen. Just because i WANT the bum horse with the 200-1 odds to win doesn't mean i think he will. I'm pretty sure he won't. It's called being realistic and going with the odds.

We (the naysayers around here) also do our best, our contribution, if you will (as pointed out in a previous comment) to educate/convince/debate people as to the merit of a strong nation, with a good sense of civic pride and functioning laws, as well as the merits of peace and prosperity with our neighbours (be it Israel or Syria).
We try to get our compatriots and others to see our point of view, without enforcing it on them. We try to show that dogma, rhetoric and populism will almost always lead to war, destruction, and the exact opposite of what people SHOULD want. That's our contribution, as expats, and as bloggers. We do what we can. My personal belief is that if enough people (civilians) realize that the only way out is through things like "rule of law", "constitution", "national pride", etc...THEN we might begin to have a chance to do away with the current state of affairs. So in my own way, i am doing my part (through debate, discussion, etc.) It is also my belief that without these fundementals (rule of law, national pride, etc.) the bum horse is pretty much assured to lose... I'm sorry if you take that as defeatism or pessimism, but it is what it is.

[Rami]

I have to say, that I am with Bad completely with this. You can only be optimistic here if there are rules involved, thus a logical and rational strategy can be devised for success, regardless of how improbable it may be. But there are no rules here. There are no institutions. There is no nationalism. Basically everything is fair game in the case of Lebanon, unfortuanately. But as any Lebanese knows, Newton's third law is particularly evident in Lebanon: for every sick advance Hezbollah takes, an equally destructive stance is being taken by someone in Lebanon to counter them; and its usually not a peaceful, non-violent enterprise. At this point, I don't see a real state in Lebanon to fight for, we are simply fighting for the idea of a state. I found it interesting how Condi sent reassurance to the Lebanese people of American "support" via an editorial in An-Nahar. It's coming to the point where our institutions have lost so much integrity, that they might as well be non-existant. All we have now is two sides fighting for their respective masters, as clients in a dirty political game, soon to be all out-war. So, at this point, one has to choose a vision for Lebanon, and support the side that is most-likely to take the country there. While in a normal democratic country this would be done at the ballots, we do this in the streets, using AK-47's, a variety of explosive devices, and calling in foreign armies to fight for us. Therefore, with the absence of any real leaders or institutions, it is becoming more likely that the only way Hezbollah will integrate into the Lebanese state, is if we form one and force them to. Otherwise we can expect Nasrallah's deception, brain-washing, and sick-games to continue and its only a matter of time before they become violent.

[LebExile]

I don't believe that Hezbollah will become violent...

They threaten civil strife, and return to civil war - because they know that the Lebanese people fear a return to civil war more than anything else...

but, what you don't realise and what Nasrallah knows but is keeping under his turban is that - the shia also fear a civil war - and they know should they begin one - they will lose control of it - they may lose control of the Shia and they will definately lose the war...

It's all playing on ones fears...
do this or there will be civil war..
do that or there will be civil war...
jump through hoops or there will be civil war...

And meanwhile ... everyone is preparing for civil war by re-arming themselves... in the end, Nasrallah will probably get his civil war ... but at least this time, it will be his last.

[LebExile]

BTW - I would consider the next war not a civil war but a war of Liberation...

Liberating Lebanon from Syria/Iran
Liberating the Shia from Hezballah
Liberating the political system...

call it what you will, but should a civil war break out, it wont last long, and there will be only one objective..

[R]

Off topic:

Ghassan,

You mentioned (rightly) in one of your comments that the elections in the Metn reigon were not held which is unconstitutional and so on... The reason, it seems, is that Lahoud refuses to sign the decree (you can check today's nahar for example)...

[Hassan]

Anybody read yesterday's Nahar?
Quoting Saniora,
وقال ان "حزب الله" يأخذ الاموال التي سبق للناس ان قبضوها لاعادة اعمار المنازل "وما رفضوا ان نقوم به كدولة يقومون به الآن".

Hizballah is collecting the reconstruction funds that have been distributed by the government to the dahye (suburb) residents, and forwarding the money to their own contractors to rebuild Dahye.
Guess they're planing to make it as "glamorous" as it once was (yes I AM being sarcastic).
Witness the re-birth of hizballah nation folks. Just thinking how deep the weapons depots and bunkers will be this time.

[ghassan karam]

Tns R for the info regarding the refusal of President Lahoud to sign on to the by-elections decree. My point though still stands. I do not believe that he has the right to refuse to sign and yet not set in motion an automatic mechanism that will culminate in the elections being held within a time certain. I feel that his signature is required in order to insure the legality of the procedures but I am convinced that his signature is not meant to become a veto. That would be preposterous.

[Bad Vilbel]

Isn't the system freaking wonderful? Between Lahoud refusing to sign pretty much every decree that ever comes his way, and Berri refusing to convene parliament...

This entire system (as so rightfully described in the previous thread by Beiruti) is designed to never get anything done, by allowing way too many people to simply obstruct.

[frankyb]

so where to from here? A fascist like dictatorship to crack down on dissent and obstructionists.im thinking,would that have solved the impasse.It has been effective in modern history.a crackdown on dissent always follows a revolution.Yet somehow,it seems too violent and nihilistic for us lebanese.If Hizbo wont wither away and Syria seeps through to reclaim lebanon, wouldnt a military dictatorship sound formidable?If the Americans sell us out and Sarkozy turns the other way,if the Arabs follow suit and all were left with is back to square one pondering what went wrong,is it too out of the question to think of a police state to protect Lebanon?

[ghassan karam]

Frankyb,
Others can sell us out only if we are willing to be sold out, only if we cooperate in the sell out. In the final analysis, as we have said so many other times, its all up to us.

[Jeha]

Fubar,

right diagnosis... But Hezb appears to be losing already, with powers of patronage down.

[Ace]

LebExile is right on the money. The 'civil war' talk started constantly with 1559 and continues. Everyone is afraid to do anything because Hez threatens this 'civil war'. It's not a 'civil war' folks - it's Hez against the rest of Lebanon. The threat is -"Do what I want, or I will bring my forces against you". When will the people see this?

It's beyond ridiculous that it is accepted that the President of the Parliament is 'perceived' to have the power to stop the Parliament - this is nowhere in the Constitution and that the President of Lebanon is 'perceived' to have the power to stop a by-election that is Constitutionally mandated. Why does anyone allow this? Answer - Hez will bring his 'civil war'.

Call his bluff - line up and let him start his 'civil war'.

[BadVilbel]

Funny story of the day: The resigned ministers claiming they want to return to their ministries, but not to the government proper.
In other words "We want to get back to embezzling and filling our pockets, without having to actually be part of the cabinet meetings."

[JoseyWales]

Yes Bad,

The "resigned" wanna come back, hilarious.

More hilarious, Saniora would welcome them back apparently.

The Mad General now says his call for one-time popular election of the Prez was a "joke", he wants universal suffrage forever.

I am not against universal suffrage per se. I'm against "one-time" idiocies, and jokers who don't know why and how we are changing laws that we never apply.

Finally, smells like some agreement is brewing (temporary I'm sure) . Hezbo and M14 and Geagea seem to be playing nicey-nice with the resignations, election etc...

PS LeExile is right no civil war, BUT Hezbo miscalculated before...

[BadVilbel]

Yeah, on principle, I'd love for the Presidential elections to be by popular vote, and EVERY TIME (no one time exceptions for this or that).

Problem is, as you said, it doesn't matter what the laws/constitution say, those laws and rules are ignored regardless of whether they say "Popular vote" or "Parliamentary elections"...

And until we stop ignoring rules left and right, and start following the laws and rules, the rest is immaterial.

[ghassan karam]

Josey/ Bad,
I understand the appeal of electing the President by popular vote but I am not sure that it is very meaningful in a system similar to that of Lebanon where the President is NOT the Chief Executive. Taef has clipped the wings of the presidency but not enough to make Lebanon a parliamentary system. We are left with a hybrid, it is a mixture of Presidential system and a Parliamentary one but I am on the side of completing the transformation of the Lebanese system to strip the Presidency of most of its powers by making the PM the effective Chief Executive of the country. I do not think that Lebanon is currently ready for that transformation though. Can you imagine the outcry of Bkirki, Geagea and Aoun. It will be deafening.

[fubar]

BV,

"I think some of us are getting on Fubar's nerves with our pessimism."

LOL, nerves of steel, my man. I was merely swatting the annoying mesquitos that occasionally buzz around my ears. But, apparently, I missed one.

Behave yourself or I shall have to resort to chemical warfare. Don't make me use the WMD. = )

JW,

Geagea spells it out:

(Ya Libnan) Speaker Nabih Berri announced last month that he will convene parliament on September 25 to elect a new president, but insisted the 2 thirds of the MPs should attend before any election takes place. Berri also said there should be an agreement in advance who should the next president be.

Geagea said there is no article in the constitution that stipulates a quorum of 2 thirds of the parliament for it to elect a president.

He said traditionally many candidates also were suggested. This time also it could be the same he said. "Hezbollah said they have their presidential candidate and they will declare his name in the appropriate time , Aoun is the candidate of FPM and we have our candidate, there is nothing wrong with this" he added.

Geagea was asked what will happen if there were 2 governments and 2 presidents in Lebanon.

He said this is impossible. During the first republic the president could remove a government and form another but not since al Taif accord. The president right now has no power to form a new government, besides for the government to be legal it has to get a vote of confidence from the parliament, which it can't. On the other hand he said the government of Fouad Siniora can get a vote of confidence any time from the parliament.

*******

Berri promises a 2/3 quorum, "as required". Hmmmm, to get to 2/3's, does that mean Amal is going to show up no matter what?

(Daily Star) Speaker Nabih Berri said Wednesday that Lebanon's new president would be elected on September 25 and that "a quorum of two-thirds of legislators would be present [in Parliament] at the time, as required by the Constitution."
. . .
In the interview he went on to say that "there is no plan for a new Taif," referring to the sectarian power-sharing accord.

The speaker said he was "committed to the Taif Accord and the equal distribution between the Christians and Muslims ... The Shiites are one of the foundations of this country and its pillars, and are committed to the Taif Accord."

******

And Lahoud wants all to know:

(Daily Star) Lahoud said that he knows the Constitution and knows his duties with regard to upcoming issues, including the presidential elections. "I don't need anyone to lecture me on my constitutional responsibilities and I don't need to hear lectures from those who have never respected their Constitution or their public administration," Lahoud told The Daily Star in a statement faxed from the presidential palace.

******

Funny guy, that Lahoud.

[ghassan karam]

"Postrevolutionary Iran and Shi'i Lebanon: Contested Histories of Shi'i Transnationalism" is an excellent article that should prove to be of benefit to all of those that have an interest in understanding the relationship between Iran and Amal and HA. The article is lengthy ( I estimate 11,000 words) but very well researched and documented. It appeared in IJMES ; International Journal Middle Eastern Studies p 271- 289.

[JoseyWales]

Gus,

Obviously a Prez elected by the populace would de-facto be more powerful and Taef needs to be changed etc...

[Bad Vilbel]

Right. Ghassan, I wasn't suggesting we elect the prez by popular vote under Taef.

I said my ultimate preference would be for a new Lebanon, new constitution, secular state, no sectarian power formulas and having the people elect the president, just like they do in France, (or the PM in the UK) and so on.

Pie in the sky. I know.

That has no baring on the actual facts at hand, mind you.

[fubar]

In the Daily Star:

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=82153

So, the thinking is, Israel should:

1. “transfer of the Shebaa Farms to the UNIFIL forces before Lebanon's politicians begin serious negotiations concerning the agenda of the next president;”

2. relocate Ghajar's “Syrian residents into Israel proper;”

3. “overcome its [Israel’s] domestic constraints and achieve progress in the prisoner-swap deal;” and

4. “stop its [Israel’s] air incursions into Lebanese airspace unless there is clear and flagrant violation of that resolution from the Lebanese side.”

All of which will allow for the testing of Berri’s statement:

“Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Hizbullah's main Shiite ally and ‘competitor,’ stated today that when ‘all of Lebanon is liberated, we will kiss the resistance goodbye.’ The international community ought to - with weeks, not months - put his words to the test.”

And, in exchange for all this Israeli good will, Israel gets...

to see if Berri is a man of his word and, if he is, if his word has any effect on Hezbollah.

Such a deal. Really, I cannot imagine what Israel is waiting for.

BV,

I thought you might like this tidbit on law and order from the LAF website:

“The army units arrested between 4/4/2007 and 4/5/2007 included 430 persons for committing the following violations: driving vehicles and motorcycles without legal papers, violating the residency laws, failing to comply with the military service obligations, traveling without identification papers, fleeing the army, fighting, the possession of military weapons and equipments without authorization, smuggling, the possession and use of drugs, provoking security personnel, provocation of riots, shooting, stealing, shredding pictures and billboards, cursing the military institution and the Lebanese state.”

BTW, note especially the last offense listed - cursing the military institution and the Lebanese state. The LAF would like you to turn yourself in for that particular offense when you next get to Lebanon but, no rush, they trust you given your well known respect for law and order. = )

[Cedar Revolution]

Emile Lahood is a national embarrassment... Would someone please tell him to just shut up!

[ghassan karam]

AK/Fubar,
When I posted the news item about the article in IJMES that deals with the postrevolutionary Iran and Shi'a Lebanon I was hoping that both of you would comment on it. I do realize that the article is dry but I feel that both of you or at least one of you might be in a position to make some valuable remarks about the truthof the assertion that there are two narratives about the Iranian- Lebanese Shi'i relationship. If the two narratives are essentially at odds with each other, does that imply that the Amal/HA relationship is weak at best and does that mean that Amal leaders are just waiting for an opportunr time to show HA that the Lebanese Shi'a agenda, just like Mr. Sadr taught, ought not be subordinated to the whims of the Iranian mullahs and that furthermore Amal still subscribes to a multisectarian Lebanon when HA aims ultimately to establish an IR? I feel that AK might even know some people who had met Mustapha Chamran and thus might shed some light on this controversy.

[fubar]

Geez, Ghassan, I am not that quick. It's not free online. I have it on order.

[whywesteppin]

Berri just passed Aoun and Lahoud for funniest guy in the country:

(Daily Star) Asked whether he was planning to convene Parliament on May 25 on the occasion of Liberation Day, Berri said: "Until now I have not made up my mind despite the fact that this is a yearly ritual we carry out to commemorate the Israeli withdrawal from most of South Lebanon, yet, on the other hand, when I see that pro-government MPs stage a show each Thursday claiming they want the convening of legislature I become reluctant; for no one imposes anything on Nabih Berri."

[ghassan karam]

Sorry Fubar, I have just found out that no e versions exist. I honestly did not know that. I guess Cambridge University Press is in the business of of at least covering its costs:-)

[Bad Vilbel]

Josey: They're ALL national embarassments. how they manage to still have followers is beyond me.

Fubar: I'll turn myself in the day every Lebanese "politician" proves that they abide by the law and constitution of their country.
Until then "NO ONE IMPOSES ANYTHING ON BAD VILBEL!"

[Jay]

whywesteppin,

Typical rhetoric from Berri, it's not the first time he says "You know, I really want to do X, but because you guys are demanding that I do X, I'm not going to do it just out of spite".

[fubar]

You don't want to miss Siniora's op-ed in the gray lady today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/11/opinion/11siniora.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

[BadVilbel]

Excellent piece from Siniora, I think.

[ghassan karam]

The Saniora Op-Ed is a nicely worded generalisation about the need for a comprehensive peace agreement that could end the Israeli-Palestinian problem that has been allowed to fester for so long. Mr. Sanioras attempt to point often to the war that erupted last summer on the Lebanese -Israeli border without even a mention of HA and its actions that ignited the conflict is a reflection of extreme selectivity, disingenousness and even lack of ability to stand up to reality.

There is nothing new in his recycling the Arab Peace initiative hoping that it will gain traction but his inability to take a stand on the failure of Lebanon to implement UNSCR and to protect its borders is troubling, to say the least.

[another_someone]

"...but his inability to take a stand on the failure of Lebanon to implement UNSCR and to protect its borders is troubling, to say the least."

I don't know, it almost sounds like a generalist saying "I blame your brain for the prostate cancer your body has."

It is a catch 22, and very easy to say that the current Lebanese PM is not taking responsibility for the UNSCR's resolutions related to Lebanon. Those before him never did (which is not an excuse, but it is the Lebanese way we're talking here), and without trying to sound grim, those after him will not. At least for a while. Maybe another 100 years of history will modernize the Lebanese political process some.

Anyway, this statesman has been playing the game as he should, given the setting and the set of cojones he has. If you believe these cojones are worthless, then replace him with someone else. NAS seems to have a nice big brass set he always flaunts about.

[Solomon2]

"I blame your brain for the prostate cancer your body has. However, the surgeon is standing right here, ready to cut it out! If you stop squirming, request his services, and cooperate, the less it will hurt!"

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

You keep harping on Siniora not fulfilling international commitments or not being as confrontational and vocal against HA as you may like him to be, but here is something you can gripe about with Sfeir making this statement after seeing Lahoud (from the Daily Star):

"The new president should be purely Lebanese, at the same distance from all parties, unbiased and experienced," Sfeir said.

Now what the heck is that suppose to mean? The president he is describing is someone who has to be a arbitrator, an appeaser someone perhaps all need to agree on, basically what Berri is advocating rather than a partner to a prime minister to fully lead the nation away from the years of Syrian occupation so that the country can realistically move towards implementing resolutions such 1559 and 1701.
Till the majority in parliament is able to elect a president who is going to work with the PM to cleanse the Army and other security agencies, the different governmental posts from all the Syrian agents no prime minister, Siniora or others, is going to be able to fully implement these resolutions. But then again you knew that, didn’t you?

[Bad Vilbel]

Until the system is replaced with one where the president, PM, and whoever else, is actually voted on and given a mandate by a majority, instead of this system where everything, and every post is "agreed upon" beforehand, none of this is going to change.

This is why I made the statement, a few weeks ago, that the HA phenomenon is but an extension of the overall disease eating Lebanon. This is why, although we all want HA dealt with, I don't think the notion that Fubar and others have that we can tackle one problem at a time, is a realistic notion.

[ghassan karam]

Charlie,
My only point was that one cannot point to the war and draw lessons from it when one does not even have the courage or maybe wisdom to speak about what triggered it. This failure to address the cause that set the war in motion will not go undetected by the targeted audience of this Op-Ed. In my estimation he has been very badly advised.
The fact that I am critical of Saniora does not mean that I agree with Sfeir. Bkirki , along with all other religious leaders, are part of the problem. I only wish that they would concentrate on what they know best, saving souls. I am tired of all the excuses that we never tire of coming up with to justify inaction and mediocrity. There is no reason for the majority not to be able to govern except for its incompetence.

[fubar]

BV,

That is because you do not know the Constitution of Lebanon. You do not know that M14 has been following it to letter and continues to this day to do so and is committed to that thru the Presidential election. You, apparently, do not know that there is no requirement in the Constitution that all parties agree on the President before the vote. That's custom, not law.

It is time to stop playing consensual politics with "alleged partners" who take the country to war and stab you in the back. It is time to honor, wait for it BV, yes, "the rule of law" and to follow the Constitution and not tribal chieftan politics.

M14 has a slim majority in parliament. It can and will elect the next President of Lebanon. And it will be Constitutionally legal. And then, Siniora will make a new cabinet, and the President will approve it, and Parliament will too by giving a vote of confidence. And it will all be according to the Constitution.

...and then you will turn yourself into the LAF. = )

Charlie,

Yes, Sfeir has always been disappointing, but I think you are reading too much into that statement. He is a Cardinal, that is church-speak. Just like you have view some of the Muslims when they speak through the prism of Islam, you must view Sfeir through the prism of a Priest, and not just any Priest. Your parish Priest will put it to you bluntly, but the higher you go, the more care everything they say it measured, particularly when it is for public consumption and to an admittedly non-homogenous audience.

"The new president should be purely Lebanese,"

Not that cheese eating, Syrian monkey Aoun, someone who has stayed in Lebanon during dark days and brighter days and is true to Lebanese independence.

"at the same distance from all parties, unbiased and experienced."

Capable of leading, not obstructing, and perceived as fair by the majority of the Lebanese. "All" being wishful Christian thinking, a majority being the reality.

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

I am a bit perplexed to the type of action you expect Siniora to do at this stage which allows him to deal with HA and their allies more forcefully but will not lead to a full blown out war? Also, is moving in that direction really reflects the will of the Lebanese people and would it serve the cause well??

I am not sure M-14 as a whole is ready to bring on an armed conflict at this point and bust up the whole country.

As I agree with BV about scrapping the whole system and replacing it with something better, but these type changes never come about without a major grassroots support with a very clear outline to the type of changes they want to bring about and the direction they want to steer the nation. Despite the fact Lebanon has dealt with lots of bloody conflicts, there still are no visions or movements with such ideas to seduce the masses to let go of their leaders and Zouma!!

[Charlie]

Fubar,

I agree with your observations about Sfier’s religious position and the Church speak he practices, but he is playing a different game, he is playing a king maker and everyone knows it. So he owes it to the people to plainly state whom does he really support rather play one game in the hallways of Bkirki and another on the public arena.

One day he wants the Syrians out another he protects the Syrian puppet in Baabda from the Cedar Revolution. Then he supports M-14 Christian politicians while Syria was around, then when push comes to shove he backs off and lets Aoun sell his BS to the people so he scores wins when he had no business winning. Frankly speaking I am starting to wonder if he is not playing the divide and conquer game so they can all come around to him and ask for his blessings!!!

[fubar]

Charlie,

lol. I think the Pope had a little chat with him. I think he is playing it coy for now, neutral and measured. No sense starting a war early.

It is all a waiting game. Everyone is inching up to the Presidential election, the same way they inched up to the tribunal under Chapter 7. Wait, wait, and wait for the opposition to come around, when that doesn't happen, wait some more, and then finally move when it is clear to everyone on the planet that the opposition is not being reasonable - i.e. they would not even discuss the tribunal with the UN rep. Berri set the election date, it is published throughout Lebanon, that is something. Now, we wait and wait, while everyone postures, until we get closer.

My big worry is that Nas knows all this which is why he and Berri and Aoun want direct popular elections, or a pre-agreed President. Nas also knows that it will not happen. So between the tribunal under Chapter 7 and Nas having no chance of getting "his" President, Nas is being backed into a corner.

And caged animals are notorious for becoming unpredictable.

[Charlie]

Fubar,
Perhaps the Pope did talk to him some, cause I noticed now he sounded a bit more clear on the tribunal under chapter 7, I guess he is not as troubled by it as he was few months back!!

You know NAS knows the game being played, but he is not too worried. His game is simple, play the Lebanese political cards one after the other and when he runs out he bring out the guns.

[fubar]

Charlie,

"...and when he runs out he bring out the guns."

yep, ...

Geez, Charlie, we might have just sent AK into the fetal position. New topic...

Nazanin has her debut album out now for couple of weeks. Check out her video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wYPA02mheI