Changing Lebanon

Who knew Fouad Siniora would one day write the UN a letter requesting the establishment of a tribunal to try the killers of his former boss, Rafik Hariri. And who knew that the man, who earned a reputation for being a frugal finance minister, would lead the country to the next phase of its troubled existence. Indeed, the prime minister of Lebanon is possibly the most vilified yet the most effective the country has had, if you measure the historical weight of his cabinet's decisions against the mammoth opposition at home and from Syria-Iran. The man, who many on this blog accuse of not being assertive enough, is not without his faults, much of them inherited from the dysfunctional system in which he has to operate.

However, he must be doing something good, given the ferocious campaign by Hizbullah against him. His refusal to funnel compensation money to rebuild the devastated areas through a Hizbullah real estate firm was the least he could have done, given Hizbullah's rejection of past projects that could have transformed the suburb into a thriving suburb of the city, instead of being its misery belt. Hizbullah's vision is that of continued poverty, random and illegal building, contained within an autonomous war-prone territory. Indeed, their insolent attempt to collect the funds on behalf of the residents who lost their homes in the militia's war against Israel—this attempt is equivalent to de-facto federalism. The donor states did not give the Lebanese state money to fund Hizbullah's own projects. And Siniora did good by refusing to hand money to Hizbullah organs armed with power of attorney.

Does the militia really expect Siniora to give it money for slandering him, not recognizing the authority of the state or the cabinet, paralyzing parliament and killing the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens? And how does the militia explain to its base its sudden need for that "tainted" money, as Nasrallah described it once? Money is only tainted when it threatens the militia's hold over the population, and is pure when it's invested in its human farming project.

That it is an existential battle for Hizbullah should be evident by now. The militia has been fighting the government on several interconnected fronts, and is now threatening to form its own government with its allies should parliament elect the next president through a majority vote. Syrian-installed President Emile Lahoud has already indicated that he will not hand over power to Siniora's cabinet – as the constitution stipulates-- if parliament fails to elect a president under Syria's and Hizbullah's conditions.  A surprise visit by Patriarch Sfeir to Baabda failed to impress Lahoud and his buddies. Sfeir failed to convince Lahoud not to partition the country when his Syrian-extended term expires. The Maronite patriarch, who declared his support for a chapter seven resolution establishing the Hariri tribunal, carries little weight and has been replaced by Aoun as far as the Assad regime and Hizbullah are concerned. The threat to form a second government was even described as illegal by Nabih Berri, who nevertheless said it was a justified counter measure to March 14's "illegal" moves.

What we have here is not only opposition to the Hariri tribunal, but an attempt to overthrow the government, parliament, and rewrite the constitution. By Berri's own admission, the post Taef constitution does not give the president the authority to form a second government, since the executive power is concentrated in the council of ministers. Furthermore, any new government has to be endorsed by parliament, now dominated by March 14. But the Lebanese constitution matters less to entities like Hizbullah, which is fighting for its survival, and Michel Aoun, also fighting for his survival, and who wants to be president. Don't count on the likes of Aoun and Nasrallah to care for the constitution or the sovereignty of the state, at least not until they re-fashion the country into something that suits their ambitions. A state that appeals to both Aoun and Hizbullah is unimaginable to some, assuming we still believe that Aoun cares about sovereignty. The former general even denied in a recent interview that Hizbullah is receiving weapons through the Syrian border "for the simple reason that their warehouses are full".

This week, the UN Security Council will likely convene to pass a resolution establishing the Hariri tribunal. According to Bashar Assad, Lebanon and the entire region will burn if this happens. This is not the first time Bashar has threatened Lebanon with destruction. So far, he has failed, because the source of Lebanon's woes is also its guard against extinction. This being the battle separating the dictator and his local friends from extinction, they will try to change the conditions for their survival. This translates into an attempt to adapt an entire country to fit their needs, in the most selfish and destructive way possible. It's what March 14 once called the battle for Lebanon.

Comments

[JoseyWales]

Does the militia really expect Siniora to give it money for slandering him, not recognizing the authority of the state or the cabinet, paralyzing parliament and killing the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens? And how does the militia explain to its base its sudden need for that "tainted" money, as Nasrallah described it once?

Excellent AK,

However that is why people like me keep bashing Saniora. He should be saying the above IN PERSON ON TV DAILY, and adding that the money is there for those who will apply thru the state etc...He needs to be VISIBLE and LOUD (and loud does not mean insulting)

[Tony]

For your readers, Abu Kais. Here's a piece today by Iyad Abu Shaqra nailing Aoun and Hezbollah.

http://www.furl.net/forward.jsp?id=19985478

[Tony]

And Josey, this stuff is being said, loudly and clearly and in the media, daily.

All the old taboos about Hezbollah are gone.

Here's Marwan Hamade for instance in today's al-Mustaqbal:

http://almustaqbal.com/stories.aspx?StoryID=232000

وعن تعويضات عدوان تموز والحملة التي يشنها "حزب الله" ضد الحكومة ورئيسها، اعتبر أن "حزب الله يريد أخذ المال المقدم من الدول العربية وخصوصا المملكة العربية السعودية ودول الخليج، لتوزيعها استنسابياً في محاولة لإخفاء الحقيقة بشأن وعد "حزب الله" الكبير بأن إيران والحزب سيعوضون على أهلنا في الجنوب والضاحية الجنوبية".

[Tony]

Sorry I left out the good part:

وأكد أن "الحكومة ستعجل بدفع التعويضات ولكن مباشرة الى الأفراد وليس الى الوسطاء أو السماسرة ، وهذا المال للمتضريرين وليس ليزيد "حزب الله" من تسليحه وتهديده للبنانيين".

[ghassan karam]

There comes a point whern it becomes impossible to give in to your opponents without short of switching sides and joining them. IMHO that ia exactly what Saniora et al are doing at the moment. The actions that the above post is giving them credit for taking comes under the heading of too little too late. It is too little because they have no other choice but to take this action if they want anyone to take them seriously and it is too late because it could have been and as many of us have suggested should have been taken months ago.

The salvation of Lebanon is not to be achieved only by marginalizing/defeating HA but through the excision of the tumor that is knowing at its body politic. Sanioras' role, if he is to be successful is therefore a dual one. He has to take a stand to keep HA at the margin where it belongs and simultaneously he has got to take steps towards the creation of a secular and responsible democracy. I will be the first to admit that the second part of his task depends on the willingness of the populace to play its role in the new setting. Yet Mr. Saniora has failed to use his office as a bully pulpit to explain, exhort, preach and teach.

Is it better late than never, under some circumstances it is provided that the party in question has rediscovered its will to rule and do the right thing. It is far from clear, to this observer, that Mr. Saniora has demonstrated his readiness to rule and to take stands that will save the patient from hemorrhaging. To save a patient by keeping her on life support mechanisms and in a comma is at times an outcome that is worse than death, it is an indignity.

[JoseyWales]

Tony.

I'm sure there is some kind of effort, but as Gus says it's too little too late.

Saniora and/or senior M14 people need to be IN PUBLIC AND OFTEN AND LIVE AND ANSWERING tough questions and destroying the arguments of Aoun and Hezbo.

Issuing an occasional "bayan" and giving an occasional interview to a Kuwaiti paper ain't it.

The test of success is when people like Berri/Skaff/etc feel the need to re-position and people like Hezbo and Aoun feel the heat from their own constituents.

Some tiny bit may be finally happening, though again too little too late.

Tony, it still looks the opposition is in the driver seat. When M14 is about to catch its breath they move to the next thing. Parliament not meeting? Bad PR for M8? zooom we are all talking about the prez election now etc

Where are all the bright PR people of the Cedar revolution?

[Tony]

I think you're giving the "opposition" too much credit. All their machinations suggest they're quite stuck.

This is not to say that March 14 has much more maneuverability, but I disagree that Hezbollah is in "the driver's seat." Hardly.

[Bad Vilbel]

I think we're confusing two arguments here.
The opposition is not in the driver's seat. Not by a longshot. They are indeed feeling the heat.
But that's at the diplomatic/politico and even international level.

At the constituents' level, on the street, PR-wise. M14 is doing a fairly mediocre job reinforcing (my pet peeve) the notions of law, constitution and sanctity of the state.

I've argued that regardless of whether M14 "wins" in the end, none of this is gonna lead anywhere good unless the Lebanese people start understanding the idea of the rule of law, and the constitution (flawed as it may be).

Only then will they be able to identify the idiocy of some of the arguments put forth by the opposition. And only then will guys like Nas and Aoun feel the pressure of their constituents.

As long as the average Joe (or Ali) in the Dahieh doesn't even SEE what's wrong with the picture of reconstruction money funneling through Hezballah, there's really no point (and that's to cite merely one example, based on the topic du jour).
And believe you me, the average Joe or Ali does NOT see anything wrong with the fact that their money channels so Hezb, simply because they don't understand the difference between THE STATE and an "organization". To them, the government is no different than saying "March 14" or "PSP" or "Lebanese Forces": It's just another faction that happens to have the money today.

The day the people learn there is but only one true legitimate state, we all answer to, is when all this will start making sense.

And this is why JoseyWales is right. M14, Saniora and co. need to stop acting like just another political faction and start acting like true statesmen. They need to be out there, telling the people in no uncertain terms: We are the state. We give out the money directly. We don't funnel it through private organizations.

This is why I think Jumblatt is the one guy who seems to "get it". After the murder of the Ziads, he made it very clear to ALL that this was a criminal matter. And criminal matters get handled by the state, no matter how flawed. Period. No ifs or buts.

Saniora and co. need to be out there highlighting the constitution (re: the presidential elections, or parliament). The people need to understand that it doesn't matter what Naim Qaseem thinks. Nor does it matter what Emile Lahoud says or does. Their word is NOTHING. The constitution states very clearly how this stuff works and that's the end of it.

And believe me, the people don't get that. You and me might get it. The foreign diplomats get it. But the average people still seem to think that Berri, Aoun and Lahoud's words and comments carry some sort of judicial weight. Well, they don't.

[LebExile]

March 14 are anything but stuck, they are playing their role perfectly.

The mere fact that Hezb-Iran is now demanding compensation money from the Senioura government shows that the flow of funds from Iran is drying up... the drop in oil prices have had a significant effect on their ability to fund more terror.

So, now Hezb-Iran wants governemnt money that was donated by other countries to Lebanon... The fact that the Shiia have to ask the government for this money instead of getting it from Hezb-Iran gets the people to start relying on their government instead of Hezb-Iran...

That is the first step in marginalising hezb-Iran.

Then, there is the fact that Hezb-Iran was not able to keep their promise of rebuilding their homes within one year... the fact that the government is able to put up limitations and restrictions which is hampering the rebuilding is the governments ways of asserting their authority - even if it's only a token gesture.

I dont believe the march 8 opposition is in the drivers seat, I dont think March 14 is in the drivers seat either, the whole country is a railway car, riding the tracks, the driver is dead, the drivers cabin is locked, and Senioura is the only one with access to the brakes.

Hezb-iran has been throwing up roadblocks throughout the journey, and Senioura has just been plowing through them...

I think the proverbial shit will hit the fan when the tribunal gets approved under chapter 7 - I guess all we can do is wait and see....

[Charlie]

Excellent post AK…

I am not sure why some are saying too little too late!! Was there something that Siniora could have done earlier that would have helped ratify the tribunal in the Lebanese Parliament, or forced HA to disband and surrender their arms to the State? I don’t think so! As far as the timing in sending the official letter to the UN, this is a due process that had to take its time. As anything else that has to go through a vote at the Security Council, the grounds have to be prepared. Even for super powers like the US, this process takes time; Siniora could not have put this forward before he got assurances from the International body that the time is right.

We all know we have plenty of hot, knuckle heads in Lebanon, but it is refreshing to see someone who is calmly facing the problems of the Lebanese nation and continue to move the agenda forward. If he was not succeeding with his mission, you wouldn’t have seen HA and the rest of March-8 lunching such a vicious personal attack on the man.

[Charlie]

"March-8 lunching such a vicious personal attack on the man."

oops I did it again..I meant launching...:-)

[ghassan karam]

Charlie,
Let us , for the unpteenth time, try to get a few facts straight:

(1) Being critical of Saniora et al does not mean by any stretch of the imagination that one favours HA.

(2) I was one of the first, maybe even the first, to say that HA cannot win and will not win.

(3) The recent action by Saniora is a little bit too late because all of this misery, instability and chaos could have and should have been prevented a long time ago. I have promised muself to be brief so let me suggest the following: (a)HA must have never been admitted to the cabinet,. (b) When the HA cabinet members walked out a year ago Saniora should have read to them the riot act, "you are not welcome to come back". (c) The role of being an appeaser during the war has proven, as many of us have suggested, to be counterproductive (d)He has never tried to implement the law(disarm militia, warn Iran, warn Syria, stop illegal occupation of downtown Beirut ...)

(4) The recent action is also too little since I would suggest that the latest action has been forced upon him by the international community. He had no choice but to ask for the tribunal under article seven. If he had the will and the foresight he could have ended the war under chapter seven

(5)And last but not least, I am afraid, actually I am convinced, that the ultimate victory under Saniora and company will at best restore the old bankrupt order in Lebanon and that my friend is a pyrrhic victory.

[LebExile]

Ghassan Karam...

So you say.. but, the fact that rule of law is coming to Lebanon makes it anything but a pyrrhic victory.

The international tribunal is not only about bringing the guilty to justice for the crime of killing Hariri - it is about bringing the guilty to justice period.

There has been too many assasinations and bombings that the world - and Lebanon is saying - enough is enough. We will try the killers of Hariri - but, more importantly - if you break the law in Lebanon - it's no longer a no-mans land - you will be caught and punished.

take for example the suicide of Gazi Kenaan in Syria - was it likely this was a suicide - was it murder, who investigated it??? did the person who pulled the trigger write the report... it's just amazing... that is what the tribunal is about - instituting some law and order.

Hezb-iran haven't a chance in hell in reversing the new status quo - the people have had enough, and now it's not only the Shia who are suffering and jobless - thanks to Hezb-Iran - the majority of the Lebanese are, and they all blame Hezb-Iran for it.

[Vox]

Fouad Siniora is making his moves slowly but surely. His careful strategy has left Hezbollah without any room to manoeuvre. Hezbollah's attempt to regain the higher ground by kidnapping Israeli soldiers last summer was a catastrophic failure. I admit that I was exasperated by Siniora's low-profile tactics, but the prime minister turned out to be the clever one. He has prevented Hezbollah and the pro-Syrians from defining the rules of the game.

It looks like the international tribunal is going to be adopted within a month, so expect the pro-Syrians to use fallacious pretexts like the presidency to create troubles.

[ghassan karam]

LebExile,
The above exchange is reminiscent of the Hiwar that the Lebanese parties had engaged in. It proved to be a total failure because the parties in question were not talking to each other. Unfortumately, it appears that we are doing the same thing, we are using the same language but each is addressing a different issue:-) What is clear is that you are satisfied with an international tribunal that will exact a pound of flesh from the perpetrators but will essentially take the country back to where it was , say 20 years ago. To me that would be a tragedy and thus it would qualify as a pyrrhic victory. I do not cherish the vision of a Lebanon wallowing in its dealy internal contradictions: sectarianism, tribalism, traditional zua'amahno accountability, corrupt government, social injustice, poor education... As Hannah Arendt has argued many a time and very persuasively, a nation state that does not improve the lot of its people has no reason to exist. Are we there yet? We will get there if we fail to make radical corrections to the societal structure.

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

"Let us , for the unpteenth time, try to get a few facts straight:
(1) Being critical of Saniora et al does not mean by any stretch of the imagination that one favours HA."

I agree..

"(2) I was one of the first, maybe even the first, to say that HA cannot win and will not win."

sure

“(3) The recent action by Saniora is a little bit too late because all of this misery, instability and chaos could have and should have been prevented a long time ago. I have promised muself to be brief so let me suggest the following: (a)HA must have never been admitted to the cabinet,. (b) When the HA cabinet members walked out a year ago Saniora should have read to them the riot act, "you are not welcome to come back". (c) The role of being an appeaser during the war has proven, as many of us have suggested, to be counterproductive (d)He has never tried to implement the law(disarm militia, warn Iran, warn Syria, stop illegal occupation of downtown Beirut ...)”

Lets forget the HA and AMAL ministers for a second, Siniora is not able to replace Gemayele after his death, don’t you think he would have if he has the full powers to do so independently from Lahoud??
Lets talk about the war, now Lebanon has suffered a great deal of destruction and economical set backs because of that war, but somehow Siniora managed to achieve some gains, namely 1701 and was able to force the deployment of the Lebanese army to the south down HA’s throat. HA knows it too, that is why now they are trying to wiggle out of their commitment again
As for (d), now come on…Siniora is dealing with a government that is infested to the core with Syrian puppets and agents, he doesn’t have the tools to go through this long list using force and Law and order. Now I would agree with you completely if Sinora is in power over a state that is completely loyal to the government, but as of now this is not the case. So it will be silly to ask of him to go out and forcefully disarm the Militia…

"(4) The recent action is also too little since I would suggest that the latest action has been forced upon him by the international community. He had no choice but to ask for the tribunal under article seven. If he had the will and the foresight he could have ended the war under chapter seven"

Where did you get that it was forced on him by the international community?? I see as it is the right time especially in light of the recent UN secretary General’s visit to the region and essentially coming to a full conclusion that the Lebanese are not going to be able to ratify the tribunal. In addition if an earlier timing was in hand to request a chapter 7 implementation, I would think Harriri and Amin Gemayele would have forced the issue and not wait this long, after all the tribunal is to help expose crimes committed against their families.

"(5)And last but not least, I am afraid, actually I am convinced, that the ultimate victory under Saniora and company will at best restore the old bankrupt order in Lebanon and that my friend is a pyrrhic victory."

I think we have touched on this issue before, So you are expecting Siniora and M-14 to take on the tribunal, HA, Syria, Iran and CHANGE the political order in Lebanon all in one battle??? Wow…don’t you think that is too much to take on when they barely hold to only one branch of the government??...:-)

[fubar]

"who many on this blog accuse of not being assertive enough"

... underfreakinstatement of the year. Thanks for the laugh, AK.

If Siniora would have read the "resigned ministers" the riot act and accepted their resignations, he could not replace them because Lahoud would not sign the decree. Additionally, they already had lost Gemayel and there was another minister then currently resigned. That would have made 8 gone and Siniora's cabinet would have been disbanded under the Constitution. No cabinet. Bad idea, Ghassan, really bad idea. The cabinet is only still standing because the one resigned minister came back and Siniora has not accepted the resignations of the other 6.

Siniora could not make the formal request for the tribunal earlier because of the Russians. The short version...First, everyone wanted Lebanon to agree or at least make a good effort, when that didn't work out, the ever so competent Arab League stepped in to "help", then when that didn't freakin' do it, Iran and Saudi Arabia had to play diplodance, and then, finally, when everyone pretty much threw their hands up in the air, Russia demanded one last go, so the UN sent its rep to see what the problem was and the oppo would not even discuss it with him. So, now all the ducks are in a row and everyone in the entire solar system has no doubt that there will never be agreement in Lebanon, that either the UN does it or it will not get done. End of story, send up the formal request.

You know, we can all look back at where we think mistakes were made but that does not get us anywhere. Decisions were made at the time which the players thought were best at the time, either best for their side or the best they could do under the circumstances and not create a civil war. Now, Lebanon is where it is. Look forward.

Ghassan, LebExile could not care about a pound of flesh. LebExile cares about the message - you cannot assassinate Lebanese leaders with impunity anymore. It is a message well worth sending, in my opinion.

Ghassan, you will not be satisfied with anything less than some massive radical transformation. Well, I can tell you right now, the goal is for Lebanon to survive as an independent nation with a chance at gradual transformation. So if you think that Lebanon is going to become the US or Canada or Australia, etc. overnight, forget it.

[ghassan karam]

Fubar/Charlie,
I think that we are going to drive each other nuts tonight:-) Don't you see , both of you, that when you point to the inability of the PM to even hold a constitutionally mandated by-elections then this is NOTHING BUT A SIGN OF HIS INABILITY TO RULE.You are in essence making my case about his ineffectivness. He should never allow either Lahoud or Berri to hijack the government and the constitution.He could seek the opinion of constitutional scholars, he could initiate a law suit or he could just get a ruling that the president is not above the law. And Fubar, either you misunderstood my reference to the riot act or I was not clear enough in my original statement, I was referring to the first walk out prior to the assassination of Gemayel and when the walk out was not accompanied by the Lahoud cabinet representative. So as you can see it pays to look before you leap:-) In either case I see no harm if the cabinet resigns because no one else has enough votes to form it besides the March 14 group. And as for the International Tribunal,must everything stop until the final judgement is issued? What if for one reason or another the tribunal issue is to drag on for another year or two, would we put everything on hold until this matter is resolved? Is it possible to govern and yet proceed in seeking justice?

In the final analysis different interpretations is a healthy sign. It is what makes a horse race possible. In this case I will not mind being wrong because that can only mean that Saniora et al have been magically transformed into what I have always wanted them to be. Believe me if this were to happen then your win will also be indirectly mine.

[fubar]

Ghassan,

I don't know about you, but you have not driven me nuts yet. I have a little therapeutic voodoo doll which I have given a little beret and into which I have poked multiple pins. = )

If you were referring to anything that happened back when Pluto was a planet (pre-misadventure), then my bad. I freely admit I am late to the Lebanon board game from hell.

Hezbollah's little misadventure has set off this chain reaction. It is not like everyone was just sitting around waiting to deal with all of this ahead of time, you know.

[Jeha]

AK,

I love to eat crow this time; Siniora is indeed proving to be far wiser than anyone had hoped, or than I gave him credit for.

He is dealing a bad hand brilliantly, and effectively disarming Hezb one issue at a time. I also agree with Ali BM that no one wants war. I fear, however, that Hezb has little real currency left but blood.

Time will tell. But in the meantime, Siniora is proving to be the man of the hour, though not a full Chehabist.

[Ace]

"At the constituents' level, on the street, PR-wise. M14 is doing a fairly mediocre job reinforcing (my pet peeve) the notions of law, constitution and sanctity of the state."

They need to get started right now on a daily basis, reminding people that this is not 1989 and Lahoud has no authority to form another government. It drives me crazy every time I read that xyz is "worried" this will happen. Make it clear that it does not matter what these clowns decide to do - it can't happen because they don't have that power. They need to get that PR machine up and running now. BV is right - people are buying this BS.

Ban was clearly dragging his feet on the Tribunal and was not going to consider the Chapter 7 until he was absolutely sure it was the only way. Now is the time, and while it would have been better for a Lebanese agreement - at least it will be done.

[Cedar Revolution]

No wonder why Hizbollah is not interested in a better urban planning for the Dahyee. Unlike Imam Musa Sadr's goal of lifting up the Shiia community, Hizbollah is erecting an iron curtain to keep its communities economically impoverished, intellectually deprived, and socially and politically isolated, under the pretext of protecting them from the Big Satan (the West)... a la Iranienne. How else can Hizbollah control the mind and hijak the hopes of a whole community. Iran with its massive oil and gas natural resources was at the brink of banckruptcy... Without oil, Hizbollah can only survive by keeping its communities miserable and socially dependent... living in constant state of war and fear from life, liberty, free thinking and democracy.

[Rami]

So I'm curious if I have the following correct, or if I am missing something. If I'm not mistaken, according to the Lebanese Constitution, the majority of parliament needs to be present on September 27th to elect a new president, and of those present, 2/3 must vote on a candidate in order for that candidate to win. So with the majority at 72 of 128 seats, I don’t think it will be hard to come up with a consensus candidate that the majority can elect as President, especially in order to overcome the crisis that would result if no President could be elected. So therefore, how exactly can the opposition prevent a president from being elected, and worse yet, form its own government? Under what “constitutional pretext” (not like they care, but anyway) will they evoke to even use as an excuse? So the way I see it, Saniora is playing a rather quiet but effective game in overcoming the pressure put on by the opposition and their bosses. Pass the tribunal under chapter 7, and leave it to the international community to enforce it, which will be necessary as we already know Syria will not comply, whether the tribunal in approved in Lebanon or not. We may as well make it a legal requirement for everyone to comply, and have them suffer the consequences later for deciding to flout demands of the international community. Meanwhile at home, elect a president from M14 and gain leverage over the opposition. Now I’m not expecting this to be easy; rather I believe that the opposition will get desperate, and quite possibly violent. So we should brace ourselves.

[ghassan karam]

The real tragedy of the Lebanese crisis is that the longer it is allowed to drag the more extreme and the more shrill some of the statements become. Just read the interview that was conducted yesterday by AsSafir with Suleiman Frangieh. It is enough to make you weep. How can we tolerate such backwardness , authoritarian ideas. shooting off the cuff and bigotry. The man goes on and on rationalizing all his stands in terms of what he considers to be good for the Christians and the Maronites. There isn't a word about what is good for the state and for supporting positions on their merit. He winds up his childish tirade with this gem:واذا ما قلت لي: ما في ميشال عون، أقول لك «لا رئيس».If you tell me that there is no Michael Aopun ( i.e. Aoun cannot be elected President) then I tell you that ther will be no President" Thank you Mr. Frangieh for this lesson in pluralism and democracy: either my way or the highway. Waiting for an official government response to the above will be similar to waiting for Godot.

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

Last night exchanging points of view on Siniora didn't drive me nuts..But bringing up Frangieh tonight..Now that did it....:-)

For the life of me I don't even know why AsSafir gives this man the time of day!!!

[Solomon2]

I wonder how closely Hezb is following the mullahs' old playbook. The Iranian Revolution was originally a multi-faceted one. Then the militants precipitated of foreign crisis by taking American diplomats hostage, with Khomeini's blessing. The prime minister resigned. The Khomeini faction seized absolute power, using the foreign crisis they themselves created as leverage, to execute their "liberal" enemies - they were the allies of "The Great Enemy", after all!

The key difference between Iran and Lebanon is that in Iran the Khomeini crowd was predominant from the beginning, whereas Hizbollah commands the loyalty of at most a third of the Lebanese population. Lebanon, it is said, is a country that lives by certain political formulas. Yet is there any reason to doubt that if Hezbollah could manufacture the opportunity, they, too, would follow in the mullahs' footsteps and tear up the rulebook, executing their political opponents as traitors to seize national power themselves? Is that what Frangieh is working up to?

[fubar]

Rami,

From Article 49:

"The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient."

In the first round, you can only select a President by obtaining 2/3 of the total deputies. However, if that does not occur, a second round is then conducted where the President is determined by whoever gets a simple majority (50% + 1).

The oppo is saying the vote must be 2/3 of total deputies. M14 is saying no, simple majority (in the second round).

The oppo is also saying must have 2/3 quorum of deputies present to have a vote. Constitution is silent on this matter. Does not make sense that a quorum of 2/3 is needed because then even though the Constitution says majority in second round there would be no first, or second, round if the deputies making up the quorum left. If a quorum were required, the Constitution should state that. The oppo is saying a quorum of deputies present is required so that they can say that the M14 majority win in the second round is illegimate when the oppo does not show up for the first vote, or walks out before the second vote.

But either way, it does not matter because the Constitution is also clear that in the event that there is no President "for any reason", then the cabinet (counsel of ministers) takes over the duties of the President and acts in his place.

Article 62:

"Should there be a vacancy in the Presidency for any reason whatsoever, the Council of Ministers shall exercise the authorities of the President of the Republic by delegation."

Of course, M14 controls the cabinet. So, from a Constitutional perspective, M14 has the oppo in a checkmate situation when it comes to the next President - either M14 will pick the President or the Cabinet will be the President until they can pick the President.

An interesting side note, the current cabinet ceases to exist when the new President is sworn in until the Parliament gives the new cabinet a vote of confidence (simple majority) which must be the President's and Parliament's first order of business.

Another interesting side note. If you are wondering why Berri went ahead and set the date for the President's election, it is because he had to or the Constitution stipulates that the vote occurs 10 days before the expiration of the current President's term. So Berri picked a date in late September, first just to pretend he was actually doing his job and second to give the oppo the maximum time to know what was going on before Lahoud's term expired in late November (the vote cannot be more than 2 months before Lahoud's term expires). The oppo wants Lahoud to still be there for two months after the election to muck up the water while he still can instead of the oppo only having 10 days to monkey around in.

[ghassan karam]

Constitutional issues are common all over the world. Such contentious problems usually arise over differing interpretations over jurisdiction and applicability of certain principles. Often it is not clear whether the death penalty violates a constitutional precept or whether the central government has the authority to impose say speed limits. The above two concepts require ijtihad on part of those that are interested in introducing such novel concepts that were not foreseen by the framers. But our current constitutional crisis in Lebanon does not rise to this level. It is a silly fight over a simple procedural matter to which the constitution speaks clearly. Article 34: Quorum in the Chamber requires a majority. Article 49 Presidential elections on first round require 2/3 but a majority in subsequent rounds.

The mistake is when we allow HA and its allies to make hay out of a simple matter that does not deserve any attention in the first place. Whether it is the Sheba'a farm, the Cabinet representation, the parliamentary elections or the purely procedural aspect of Presidential elections the government ought to respond clearly and forcefully to each of these situations instead of allowing the opposition to sow doubt in the mind of the public regarding the legitimacy of these acts. The relevant judicial authorities must issue a clear explanation of the procedure in question in order to put this argument to rest once and for all.

[fubar]

Ghassan,

Article 34:

"The Chamber is not validly constituted unless the majority of the total membership is present. Decisions are to be taken by a majority vote. Should the votes be equal, the question under consideration is deemed rejected."

This is clearly referencing the Chamber in its legislative function. But the Constitution also says:

Article 75:

"The Chamber meeting to elect the President of the Republic is considered an electoral body and not a legislative assembly. It must proceed immediately, without discussion or any other act, to elect the Head of the State."

The Constitution is silent as to quorum when the Chamber is acting as an "electoral body."

M14 is certainly pushing the Article 34 majority is a quorum under any circumstances and I want to agree given the silence of the document relative to a quorum for "legislative" versus "electoral" purposes. However, if an electoral quorum is a majority, then the entire first sentence of Article 49(2) is superfluous as there is no point in requiring 2/3 of "the Chamber of Deputies" (not the deputies present) if a simple majority is a quorum. This point become particularly acute given that the entire point of the second sentence is to allow the breaking of deadlocks by simple majority.

Legal documents must be construed to make sense and, particularly, to make sense within the four corners of the document.

So, as to your interpretation, ... I want to believe...

But I cannot follow you down that rabbit hole.

[fubar]

Ghassan,

Just to be clear, when I say I want to believe I mean I want to believe that it is so clear, as you state. Unfortunately, it is not when the entire document is read in context. However, I would place a good size wager on the fact that this issue has come up previously and that there is either legal or procedural precedent on this matter. I have a vague memory of a discussion of deputies once being held in the chamber (physically) during the vote to ensure the 2/3 quorum. That would certainly indicate that the 2/3 quorum has some precedent.

But I am not a Lebanese lawyer so I do not presume to know the absolute answer to this question.

But I will not so easily dismiss the 2/3 quorum argument out of hand.

[Bad Vilbel]

The mistake is when we allow HA and its allies to make hay out of a simple matter that does not deserve any attention in the first place. Whether it is the Sheba'a farm, the Cabinet representation, the parliamentary elections or the purely procedural aspect of Presidential elections the government ought to respond clearly and forcefully to each of these situations instead of allowing the opposition to sow doubt in the mind of the public regarding the legitimacy of these acts. The relevant judicial authorities must issue a clear explanation of the procedure in question in order to put this argument to rest once and for all. (Ghassan)

This says it all. Period.

[fubar]

BV,

"The relevant judicial authorities must issue a clear explanation of the procedure in question in order to put this argument to rest once and for all."

On that point by Ghassan, particularly on the issue of what consistutes a quorum for the election of the President, I could not agree more. However, where is the Lebanese judiciary; hell, where are the Lebanese Constitutional scholars and/or lawyers? They are either burning up the email arguing with each other about it or this is so totally a non-issue that they are laughing about it.

My money is on non-issue.

However, either way, for M14 it is a non-issue. Either they will have a quorum (whether it is a majority or 2/3 of the deputies) and M14 will win in the second round with a simple majority, or they will not have a quorum (if 2/3 is required and the oppo doesn't show up) and the M14 cabinet will assume the Presidency.

[ghassan karam]

Fubar,
As luck will have it we are in a position to learn from the recent failed Turkish Presidential elections. The wording of their 1982 constitution on the issue of electing a President is similar to that in the Lebanese constitution. To elect the President on the first round a quorum of 2/3 is needed. When Mr. Gul , the sole candidate, could not bring in the required 367 members to the Vhamber the vote was declared illegal. Then a second round was held which also required 2/3 of the votes. Again the ruling party could not get 367 deupties to attend. In the third round, had it been held, then a simple majority of 50% plus one would have sufficed. This however did not take place because Mr. Gul withdrew his nomination and thus the elections were called off.

Note that when the 2/3 could not be mustered then a subsequent round lowers the bar. This is exactly the case in Lebanon. If 2/3 cannot agree on the first round then the qurom requirement becomes less onerous. And that is the way that it should be otherwise a group of 1/3 plus one of the deputies will be able to frustrate the will of the majority forever by effectively giving them a veto power for the whole process and not only the first round.(Note also the civilized environment in which the disagreement was handled in Turkey).

[Jay]

Ghassan,

The relevant judicial authority in this case is the Constitutional Council, which resigned last year and has not been replaced due to the political crisis. I think Marwan Hamadeh (not sure about this, some MP anyways) called last week for appointing the council in the parliament, but as of now there is no authority that can declare the presidential elections legitimate.

[ghassan karam]

Jay,
Is it constitutional not to have a Constitutional Council ? I very much doubt it.The following is Article 2 from the by laws that created it in 1993 and as modified in 1999:

- يعين مجلس النواب نصف هؤلاء الاعضاء بالاكثرية المطلقة من عدد الاعضاء الذي يتألف منه قانونـاً في الدورة الاولى وبالأكثرية النسبية من أصوات المقترعين في الدورة الثانية، واذا تساوت الأصوات فالأكبر سناً يعتبر منتخباً.
- ويعين مجلس الوزراء النصف الآخر بأكثرية ثلثي عدد اعضاء الحكومة.

Half of the members are to be appointed by the Chamber of Deputies by a majority of %0% +1 in the first round and by the propotional majority of those present in the second round. In the case of a tie the older member wins.

The other half is appointed bythe members of the Cabinet through 2/3 vote.

And as to the case that a vacancy is created then Article 4 says:

في حال شغور مركز احد الاعضاء بسبب الاستقالة او العجز الصحي او الوفاة او لأي سبب آخر يعلن المجلس حصول الشغور وانهاء الولاية وفقاً للاصول ويبلغ رئيس المجلس ذلك خلال اسبوع الى المرجع الذي اختار العضو الذي شغر مركزه لاخذ العلم وتعيين عضو بديل.
- يعين هذا المرجع العضو البديل خلال شهر من تاريخ اخذ العلم بالطريقة ذاتها التي عين بها العضو الاصيل وللمدة المتبقية من ولايته.

In the case of a vacancy for any reason...the party that made the original appointment is informed of the vacancy so that it will appoint a replacement. The replacement is to be appointed within a month of the vacancy utilizing the same procedures that were followed in appointing the original appointee. The new appointment is to complete the term left unfulfilled.

It is clear to me that according to the above the current vacancy is due to failure by the Speaker and the Cabinet to fulfill their duties. The President does not seem to be involved in this.

[Jay]

Ghassan,

Exactly. The least M14 could do now is to appoint half of the Constitutional Council, with invation to HA/Amal ministers to participate in the discussion (with promise that they will be chosen by consensus), and asking publicly for Berri to call the parliament to fill the other half of the council. Hamadeh already did the last part, but I think that it would be a good move for M14 to start pushing for the CC appointments before the elections. If the opposition accepts and allows the appointments to take place, then M14 has more legitimacy in presidential elections. If the opposition refuses, then M14 can use it as propaganda ammunition.

[BadVilbel]

Fubar

However, either way, for M14 it is a non-issue. Either they will have a quorum (whether it is a majority or 2/3 of the deputies) and M14 will win in the second round with a simple majority, or they will not have a quorum (if 2/3 is required and the oppo doesn't show up) and the M14 cabinet will assume the Presidency.

You continue to miss the point of how things work in Lebanon. Non-issue for you and me? Sure.
Look no further than 1989 (same thing happened) to see what can happen again.

Just because things are written in stone, clear as day, doesn't mean the opposition will acquiesce to it. What will happen, is they will declare the current government illegitimate (they already have). Lahoud will refuse to hand over power to the current cabinet (saying it's illegitimate) and will go ahead and appoint his own PM (just like Amine Gemayel did back in 1989 when he appointed Aoun PM). And we will have 2 competing governments.

And the worst part is that there will be enough people buying into the opposition's rhetoric to give them a support base (just like in 1989). And this is why I keep harping on how important it is to explain this crap to the public. All the laws in the world can be on your side. They don't mean a thing if there's enough people with guns refusing to submit to the laws in question. In the case of Lebanon (where armed folks are the norm), having the law or consitution on your side means squat until you can actually enforce it. And M14 doesn't seem capable of enforcing laws right now. And I think that's the point some of us are trying to make here.

[fubar]

For those that are interested, the election I was thinking of, where the presence of deputies was physically commanded to achieve the 2/3 of the “then living” deputies quorum, was the election of Bashir Gemayel in 1982. There were 99 deputies then, but not all were living, so the number that represents the 2/3 quorum is adjusted for the fact that only 2/3 of the “living deputies” have to show up. What can I say, it’s Lebanon...

Anyway,... from Time Magazine, September 6, 1982:

“The bullet-pocked Parliament building had been deemed too dangerous for the special session, so the meeting was moved to the Lebanese army's military academy at Fayadiyeh in the hills above the city, deep within Christian-controlled territory. When only 56 deputies showed up for the crucial vote, six short of the 62 required for a quorum, Gemayel militiamen went into action. After what one aide described as a number of "forceful" telephone calls, several cars pulled up tothe building. The reluctant deputies were hustled into the chamber by burly escorts.
By a vote of 57 to 0, with five abstentions, Gemayel won the election.”

Of course, again, this being Lebanon, we all know what happened to Bashir Gemayel... on September 14, 1982. RIP

BV,

1. I can read. I understand what you and Ghassan are saying.

2. Query for you:

Which one of these is not like the others? AK, BV, Charlie, fubar, Ghassan, Jeha, JW.

Let me spell it out for you. My interest in and perspective on the events in Lebanon is not the same as yours.

[ghassan karam]

Fubar,
I have not been a resident of Lebanon for many years but yet I have a feeling that I did caste a vote every single election. Note : There are no absentee ballots in Lebanon:-) (I think that every village has its own Mayor Daly)

[BadVilbel]

Fubar,

I know your perspective is different than ours. And I know your vested interests are also a bit different (although probably overlapping with our desire for a free and democratic Lebanon).

The comment of yours, however, that I responded to, was to the effect that M14 will win (not should, WILL). You're predicting a specific result (and that has nothing to do with vested interests).
And you're backing your prediction with the constitution.

I happen to agree that, according to the constitution, M14 SHOULD get the next president, one way or the other.
But "should" does not mean that's what is going to happen. And that was my point. My prediction is that even if M14 ends up coming out on top, in the long run, it won't be as simple as them getting the next president by November. I foresee the opposition taking the country towards a dual government first. Why? Simply because they can.

PS: I was in Lebanon at the time of Bashir Gemayel election and remember the scene you describe vividly. I also remember the 1989 "coup" that brought us the dual governments of Aoun and Hoss. A dual government issue that was only resolved by force, I might add.
I see us heading in that direction next, even if in the end M14 ends up on top.

[fubar]

BV,

I am absolutely positive I have repeatedly stated, directly and euphemistically, that Lebanon will not make it to September (or November). I am equally positive that you have similarly stated that Lebanon is "fucked".

I am beginning to wonder if you have ADD. = )

I keep pointing out the fact that M14 WILL win to emphasize the fact that Nas cannot win legally. Plus, M14 will win because the international community will not recognize Nas' alternate government which leads to a whole other discussion. Now, if Nas knows that he cannot win legally under the current set up and his alternate government will not be recognized, he has only one choice -- he has to change the playing field. I have already stated repeatedly how he will attempt to do that so I will not go into again. In any event, anyone who is not preparing for war is a fool. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[Charlie]

So speaking of Presidents and wanna be presidents, what is up with Aoun meeting Welsh at the embassy? Is he trying to line up a visa to when the orange season is over!!...:-)

[fubar]

Charlie,

It's Welch. And, Aoun heard about the new amnesty for illegal aliens that the Congress is planning as we speak. So he is just taking this opportunity to make an early application. No, you did not see him in France all those years, that was a body double, he was in the US illegally, and he swears to it.

[Charlie]

Fubar,

lol..That illegal orangina Aoun, I think we should introduce him to some of the minutemen..:-)

[fubar]

I think that Micho will fit right in in that sovereign US territory we like to call Gitmo. He certainly has the clothes for it. And since he has become so chummy with the Death to America crowd, between that and the weather, it will feel like home sweet home.

[Charlie]

Fubar,

lol, So true about his outfit. Keeping him in Gitmo, now that is one expense I don't mind my tax money covering. Hell throw in some Cuban Monte Cristo into the deal too..:-)

[Bad Vilbel]

Fubar,

You're right. You did say that Lebanon won't make it to Sept.
I apologize for my seemingly stubborn last few posts.
I think I've been losing sight of the bigger picture of your posts. Your specific statements about the presidential elections seem contrary to what I was saying, but I think I see now that we're saying the same thing.

[fubar]

BV,

No prob. Just FYI, the reason to delve into this shit when we will most likely never get there is to understand the various, ever changing positions of the oppo. You cannot prove the oppo wrong if you don't know what is right yourself. Additionally, if you know that M14 can and will win under the current Constitution, it helps to understand the bargaining positions of the respective parties from which you can more accurately predict the next round in the smackdown. Finally, when you understand the weakness of Nas' position, you will more fully understand the danger which lies just ahead.

[R]

I have been harping about the very facets of the opposition's strategies and manouverings and all that stuff on my own blog for a while and the only thing that I can come up with (for whatever action they have ended up taking) is desperation. A side that needs for tribunal to fail (but can't control its fate) and for the presidency to not fall in the hands of its political opponents (yet can only delay it) and that has lost (much of) its capability to externalize its justification for existing (i.e. the resistance...) is basically clawing away at anything at all that will
a) delay the inevitable,
b) buy enough time to acquire the means to make the inevitable irrelevent...

just saying...

[Jeha]

I fear Fubar is right on the money on this one. Being less emotionally invested, at least directly, may help objectivity...

So while I agree Berri's just buying time for his allies and masters to regroup, I also note no close to "decision makers" in Lebanon feels the same way. It is as if they repeatedly trust Berri to betray his allies, a paradox in itself.

I recall an earlier comment by same Fubar, that the choice in Iran being between the bad and the worse... I fear the choice in Lebanon is similar, between a war now and a war later, but a war nonetheless. Ali BM is right in stating that none of us what a war, but since when did we ever count? This may well be imposed on us, sooner or later...