A historic day

The UN Security Council is expected to vote later today on a resolution to set up the long awaited Hariri tribunal. The resolution would unilaterally establish the tribunal under the binding chapter 7 of the UN charter. Press reports expect the resolution to pass with nine "yes" votes, and five abstentions from Russia, China, Qatar, Indonesia and South Africa.

One day, someone will bother to analyze Qatar's role in Lebanon and the region since the emir decided to act on his illusions of grandeur, and try to become more than an overweight ruler with money to build ghost malls. But right now, what the emir and his media-based empire do or say is of little significance to the millions of Lebanese inside and outside Lebanon who will regard the UNSC action as a step in the right direction. It would have been a sweeter victory had Lebanese parliament convened to approve the text. But the role of parliament and government has not ended. The resolution merely establishes the tribunal, and much remains to be approved and worked out in the Lebanese institutions.

The text of the resolution gives Lebanon until June 10th to ratify the tribunal in parliament. Otherwise, the resolution would "enter into force". The Russians objected to the idea of the Security Council ratifying agreements "on behalf of a parliament of a foreign country". However, they are not expected to veto the resolution, which they know is the only way to establish the tribunal.

Saad Hariri called on all his supporters to stay home and light candles tonight, and avoid the provocations of pro-Syrian regime elements who, he said, will use the occasion to prove to the world that establishing the tribunal will create great conflicts in the country. Likewise, Walid Jumblatt urged calm, calling today a "historic day" and an occasion to remember and reflect on the martyrs of the march for Lebanese independence, the Lebanese civilians who lost their lives, the Lebanese detainees in Syria, and the Syrian prisoners of conscience.

And as Jumblatt said, this is only the "beginning of a long road". Indeed, the "opposition"  said that it will not recognize the authority of the UNSC. And Syrian-installed president Emile Lahoud proposed a "six-member national salvation cabinet" to deliver the country from the evil of international justice!

But the opposition, led by the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah, has vowed it will never accept the tribunal and blocked government efforts to win parliament's endorsement for the project."Do not expect that we will recognise this tribunal, directly or indirectly," said opposition lawmaker Ali Hassan Khalil.

Lebanon's Damascus-backed President Emile Lahoud on Tuesday proposed a six-member "cabinet of national salvation" with each member representing one of the main religious communities, as a way of ending the political deadlock.

But Saad Hariri said the timing raised "suspicions" and branded it another attempt to hamper the creation of the court. (AFP)

It is a long road indeed.

Update. The Hariri tribunal is born. 10 for, 0 against, 5 abstained. The resolution is called UNSC 1757.

As expected, Qatar, Russia, China, Indonesia, South Africa abstained. China considered it interference in Lebanese affairs. Russia warned of legal implications and said Lahoud's letter should have been taken into consideration. But who cares, they abstained, and the noose around the Assad regime is tightening.

A loud explosion was just heard in Beirut. It could be fireworks, it could be the Assad regime responding.

Comments

[Vox]

Nine (or even 10 votes) is not much by UNSC standards. This isn't a good sign for the tribunal's future. Abstention from China and Russia mean that two major powers oppose the tribunal, but will not veto it. Still, this resolution is a major victory for Lebanon, so let's cheer for once.

Also I don't understand Qatar's position. Did Qatar voted against the resolution because it is afraid of Saudi influence? Or did Bashar's terrorists succeeded in frightening the Emir? Somebody knows something about this?

[Shunkleash]

A long road indeed, but all roads lead to some place and I hope this road leads us home!

Tomorrow a new sun will rise!

AYESH LUBNAN!!

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

I will be surprised if Russia abstains.
Lets wait and see, before we uncork the champagnes.
.

[Craig]

Vox, and abstention doesn't mean a country is opposed. It is usually a political consideration... they do not want either their "yes" or their "no" vote to be used against them at a later date. I would think anyone who actually opposed and felt strongly enough it would vote no, even if they don't veto.

[maverick]

Welcome back AK,
I hope youve brought some Baklawa.What a great day for sweet shops in Lebanon.

[Louis-Noel Harfouche]

I agree with Amir; it would be so out of character if Russia were to refrain from using its veto.. so I'm not counting my chickens until they've hatched. and it's not like we've never been dealt a massive blow before; often at times when things seemed to be moving inevitably in our favor. Remember that abominable and crass as he is, the Syrian has a creepy sense of history and an ironic penchant for chilling symbolisms. I'm still hoping for the best (but always expecting the worst.)

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

BREAKING !!!

1757 adopted.!
Russia abstains.
Open all champagne bottles. Celebrate !
.

[BadVilbel]

Fireworks in Beirut. And a firebomb was tossed at the Mar Michael church in Shiyah (according to Naharnet).

[Louis-Noel Harfouche]

Mazel Tov to Lebanon and all people of good will.

[BadVilbel]

Let's not celebrate just yet. UN Resolutions have come and gone for years. It remains to be seen how this is all going to play out.

[Vox]

That resolution is chapter VII baby! Furthermore, there is no need for a second resolution to apply the first, the tribunal will be automatically created on June10th, and the inquiry has already been done by Brammertz and Mehlis. Bashar can blow up as many cars as he want, Nasrallah can send his goons against 14th of March, but they can't stop the tribunal now. It's time for justice.

[Cedar Revolution]

It is time to celebrate! Hopefully this UN vote leads to a rebirth of the Cedar Revolution spirit. A wiser crowd, less trusting of traditional leadership, more demanding of political reforms, and more willing to contribute, volunteer and take actions to make things happen, including a successful tribunal and a sovereign nation!

[BadVilbel]

CR,

You're putting an awful lot of expectations on what is, in the end, just a tribunal.
A tribunal is not going to change the mentality of the Lebanese people. It might be one step, and a small one at that, in the direction of teaching the importance of law to the people, but beyond that, I expect not much will change in terms of the local mentality. Not just yet.
September is still gearing up to be another mess (presidential elections).

Baby steps, though.

[Maya]

Good to have you back Abu Kais. You obviously are "fal Kheir".

I think Quatar abstained because it fears a retaliation from Iran, especially given that Iran is on its way to becoming a nuclear power (shudder). After all, Iran has been occupying 3 of the UAE's ilands (The Tunbs and Abu Mussa) for over 30 years and never suffered any repercussions for seizing the Emirati islands. As for Nasrallah, he has proven to the world and to any Lebanese endowed with a brain that he is Iranian and not Lebanese. His loyalty is with Iran and his Hezb is an extention of the Iranian army.

Nevertheless, this is a historical event for Lebanon. The Butcher of Damascus needs to understand that there are consequences to killing people. They are not flies he crushes and walks away from. It is also important for the families of the martyrs whose name and cause will be registered with the rest of the world. They paid the final price and we owe them as much. Bsahetkoum.

[valiumjunky]

binding shminding. syria will ignore it and cause some chaos. the international community will huff and puff and ask for the accused and for witnesses. they will try them in absentia. they will make a nice production. syria will ignore that also and cause more grief. the condemnation will be dramatic. no force will be used because when the shooting starts the UN (and its members) are expert at quick exits. syria will ignore that and cause more trouble. in the end, after a couple of US presidents , UN secretaries general, have come and gone, the arab autocracies will still be there staring at the gaping wound of lebanon and kindly ask syria to please stop it at all costs. a decade or 15 years sounds like a good round number. what are we celebrating again?

[Craig]

junky,

they will try them in absentia. they will make a nice production. syria will ignore that also and cause more grief.

I hope Syria does ignore convictions.Damascus is only 100 miles from these guys:

2nd Marine Division

Who are currently in Anbar province in Iraq.

Luckily for Assad, it was the 2nd Marine Division that lost 243 troops to Hezbollah in 1983.

It just couldn't get any better than that. And with UN backing? Damn. I hope he is that stupid. I really do.

[ali bm]

Craig, what are u saying that with all the americans have on their plate in Iraq, they will also take on syria miliarily? get real man. the americans and israelis have vested interest in keaping assad in power. they will continue to use the tribunal as a bargaining chip and i believe that they will settle in the end for lynching a couple of syrian intelligence officers and some of their lebanese servants as well but that is it.
anyway i am optimisitc at the tribunal being pushed through as we now might finally get on with dealing with some of the real issues in the country and stop harping about the tribunal.

[Craig]

ali,

Craig, what are u saying that with all the americans have on their plate in Iraq, they will also take on syria miliarily?

You bet! The US military is not actually involved in combat operations in Iraq, anyway. They are (ineffectively) trying to provide security. I think they might like the chance to get back to actually doing what they've been trained to do.

And despite rumors to the contrary, the 150,000 troops US has in Iraq is not the entire US military!

We invaded Iraq with 1 Army Division and 1 Marine Division.

The US has 10 Army Divisions, and 4 Marine Divisions.

For instance, if the 2nd MEF isn't enough to invade Syria, we have these guys:

1st Marine Division

Who just got back from Iraq and are sitting on their asses down at Camp Pendleton, getting drunk and chasing women.

Why not let them get drunk and chase women in Syria? Syrian women are better looking than American women anyway.

But, really, do you think the Syrian military is so much tougher than the Iraqi military was?

the americans and israelis have vested interest in keaping assad in power.

People used to say the same for Saddam. Saddam is dead.

they will continue to use the tribunal as a bargaining chip

Bargaining chip? To what end? We want Lebanon free and democratic. We want Hezbollah gone, and we want the regime in Iran toppled. I don't think we much care about Syria.

How can we use the tribunal as a "bargaining chip" to get any of that? Please tell me, I'd like to know :)

and i believe that they will settle in the end for lynching a couple of syrian intelligence officers and some of their lebanese servants as well but that is it.

They may. I'm talking about likely outcomes if Syria refuses to comply. That may very well be all that happens, if the tribunal is allowed to proceed unhindered.

anyway i am optimisitc at the tribunal being pushed through as we now might finally get on with dealing with some of the real issues in the country and stop harping about the tribunal

I hope so, too. I don't think Lebanon deserved to get pulled into everyone else's political games, the last 30 years. I hope that era is coming to an end.

[Abu Kais]

Fubar? you owe me something. You said to remind you after it passes. :)

[Jeha]

Mabrouk!

Now the real work starts... Let's hope "our side" can take this ball and run with it.

[Ace]

What this really means is that it is now a 'done deal' and nothing HA or Syria do can stop it. They can't "negotiate it" and they can't stop it. I don't know what (if any) the results will be, but we do know one thing -- they were willing to do almost anything to keep this from happening so I'm guessing they know more about repercussions than we do. I don't agree with Craig about US war on Syria - I'm thinking more like total isolation by the rest of the world if it is proven that Syria was involved. In the end, they will pay (a la Libya) huge fines to Lebanon and be perhaps a bit more 'agreeable' as a neighbor. It's a step forward. The worst result from all this will be if it has been Hezbollah who ordered these assassination. That will be a disaster to deal with.

[khaled]

Champagne corks poppin!! for now..
Allah yestor

[Mark]

I'm going to have to agree with Ali on this one. I usually don't agree with Ali, but I think he's right on a few accounts.

1 - Despite the US Military's hooray's and hoorah's, they are not ready for another invasion. The American public is less ready.

2 - We do have a vested interest in keeping Assad in power. I personally hate the bastard, but I'm afraid of what may come after him. We all should have been afraid of what came after Saddam, and we're now reaping what we sowed. The fact that Saddam is dead does not excuse the fact that we royally f-ed up in Iraq, Craig. There's one of those sayings in the ME that we use to explain our politics when necessary (convenient?): Better a devil you know than a devil you don't know. Bashar is bad, but better than the alternative. Saddam was the same way, and we're paying the price for it now. If only we could resurrect him.

3 - In order to keep Assad in power, a few heads will roll, both Lebanese and Syrian. This is the ideal situation, however, not because I want Assad to get away with anything, but because I'd rather him get away with this than to see what the Iraq-syndrome would do to Syria. I don't like myself too much for saying that about Assad, but I can't see a better equilibrium. If the US pushes too hard on this, we're going to quickly have another mess on our plates which will bode worse for the ME than we've ever seen. Syria has entirely too many aces in its hand for us to bluff.

I also very much agree with BV. I wish I could get more excited about this tribunal, but I can't see how this is really going to tangibly change things. The same crap will continue, and so on and so on. I really hope I'm wrong here, folks; I'm just voicing my fears.

My opinion as to why the 5 abstaining countries did not vote for the tribunal: Why would the likes or Russia and China vote for something that would set a dangerous precedent for the likes of their own? All Putin needs right now is someone trying to do the same thing in the UN for some politically motivated assasination in Russia.

[Craig]

Mark,

The fact that Saddam is dead does not excuse the fact that we royally f-ed up in Iraq, Craig. There's one of those sayings in the ME that we use to explain our politics when necessary (convenient?): Better a devil you know than a devil you don't know. Bashar is bad, but better than the alternative. Saddam was the same way, and we're paying the price for it now. If only we could resurrect him.

I'm no fan of the decisions that have been made in Iraq since 2003, and I wasn't a supporter of the invasion. But, I spent 6 years as an infantryman in the US Marines, in the two divisions I linked earlier. 1st and 2nd MARDIV.

I don't think about how to solve political problems. I wasn't trained to do that. I think about how to solve military problems. Syria as a "problem" can be solved, militarily. That's not to say it wouldn't create a political mess, afterwards. It seems to me that what politicians do after a military success is up to politicians. And the invasion of Iraq *was* a military success.

Anyway! Sorry if I introduced a sour note into this celebratory discussion! I just wanted to point out that Assad could in fact find himself in quite a bad predicament if he fails to comply with a Chapter 7 UN resolution. The US military could squash him like a bug. Regardless of what the politicians fail to accomplish, in the aftermath.

[fubar]

AK,

“Michel said Hizbullah and other parties should not worry about the tribunal prosecuting crimes outside its jurisdiction, which only applies to the Hariri crime, and other crimes –– if proven to be related——committed between October 1st 2004 and January 12th, 2005. Michel also said if Hizbullah's real intention was to protect certain people from prosecution, then he sees no possibility of agreement with the party.” B2B, On the road to Chapter 7, April 21, 2007

No, what Michel said was that Hezbollah and other parties should not worry about the tribunal prosecuting crimes which were committed between October 1, 2004 and January 12, 2005 OR are proven to be related.

See 1757, Addendum - Agreement between the UN and the Lebanese Republic on the establishment of a Special Tribunal for Lebanon at Article 1, Paragraph 1.

“If the tribunal finds that other attacks that occurred in Lebanon between 1 October 2004 and 12 January 2005, OR ANY LATER DATE decided by the parties and with the consent of the security counsel are connected in accordance with the principles of criminal justice and are a nature and gravity of similar to the attack of 14 February 2005, it shall also have jurisdiction over persons responsible for such attacks.” (Emphasis added) It goes on to list how such attacks can be considered “related”.

What other assassinations are the UN currently investigating? Pierre Gemayel ring a bell? Well after January 12, 2005 - actually November 21, 2006.

Remember, the Hezbollah/Lahoud ministers resigned on November 13, 2006.

Hezbollah had always claimed that it was not against a Lebanese tribunal in principal. But that was when it was for the assassinations committed between October 1, 2004 and January 12, 2005. But Pierre Gemayel was assassinated for the sole purpose to creating the 8th missing member from the cabinet so as to cause the legal downfall of the Siniora cabinet under the Constitution. Who had motive, I wonder.

It was after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, and it’s subsequent failure to bring down the government due to the re-joining of the cabinet by “then resigned” minister Hassan Sabeh, that Hezbollah became even less interested in any tribunal at all - Lebanese or otherwise. That was when the tribunal, agreed upon in principal by the full cabinet before the Hezbollah/Lahoud resignations, suddenly became an absolute “red line” for Hezbollah.

When watching these events, I would simply suggest that you look closely at whose interests are being advanced and how.

Hezbollah is more closely tied to Iran than it has ever been tied to Syria. Syria is merely a conduit, chosen by Iran, through which Hezbollah receives it money and arms. The relationship is Hezbollah to Iran; Iran to Syria; and, therefore, Syria to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah will advance the interests of Syria only to the extent that they coincide with Hezbollah’s interests or to the extent that Iran directs Hezbollah to do so. If Hezbollah has to choose between itself and Syria, it will always choose itself. However, if Hezbollah has to choose between itself and Iran, it will always choose Iran. Quite simply, Hezbollah can exist without Syria, but Hezbollah cannot exist in anything close to its current empowered state without Iran’s money and arms.

It would have been politically expedient for Hezbollah to have agreed to a Lebanese tribunal, if it had nothing to fear from such a tribunal. It would have appeared reasonable, it would have appeared to have been making some concession to the majority calling for a reciprocal concession from the majority, and it would have appeared to the Lebanese people as a whole to be against assassination and for justice. It makes no sense for Hezbollah to trade all of that just to oppose the tribunal at every turn merely to aid Syria, unless (1) Hezbollah also had something to fear from the tribunal and/or (2) Iran directed it to do so - most likely both.

I once stated here that the lesson the Iranian Revolution was incrementalism. Iran has learned over the years that slow, steady, and persistent wins the race. Do not underestimate Iran’s bastard step-children. They will not accept defeat gracefully and give up. They will not just accept the tribunal and move on to the next issue.

As long as March 14 maintains control of the cabinet and parliament, March 14 will determine which crimes at ANY LATER DATE are “related”. As you are well aware, I have often wondered why the Lebanese on this blog do not fully appreciate, in my opinion, the great personal risk which Siniora is undertaking, not for himself, but for Lebanon and to advance your collective dream for Lebanon. Perhaps there are just some things which can only be fully appreciated in hindsight.

Additionally, while it is far too early to determine how this will all turn out in the end, someday, I hope that the Lebanese will come to appreciate all the effort that this US administration is exerting on its behalf. The Russian abstention was not a foregone conclusion. And, the reason I did not bring up Pierre Gemayel back on April 21, 2007 was because I was not sure the “or any later date” was going to survive into the final resolution and, if it did not, I did not want to give you all yet another reason to call Siniora spineless. = )

This is far from over and gets more dangerous by the day.

[valiumjunky]

Craig, thanks for the insight into the possible military options. Its too bad its not only a military problem. If it was only a military problem it would have been solved long ago...

[another_someone]

I just read this interview with the Lebanese PM by the Times, and could not help but think that B.V. has been rehearsing with him on how to respond...

[fubar]

Damascus, 31 May (AKI) - A UN Security Council resolution to form an international tribunal to try those suspected of assassinating a former Lebanese premier that has drawn strong criticisism from Syria topped the agenda in talks Thursday between Syrian president Basher al-Assad and Iranian foreign minister Manuchehr Mottaki. The Iranian foreign minister who arrived in Damascus on Thursday morning for a previously unannounced visit said he had come to congratulate Assad on his victory in the recent presidential referedum.

The visit also coincided with the seizure by Turkish authorities of an arms haul allegedly orginating from Iran and destined to pass through Syria to militias in Lebanon in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions. Sources said the issue also came up in Thursday's meetings in Damascus.

Mottaki also met his Syrian counterpart Walid al-Muallim as well as Assad's deputy, Faruq al-Sharaa.

[Jeha]

... And the roaches go on scurrying.

Fubar is right, this has barely begun, but one cannot help but feel vindicated. This time, there is hope for "normal" minded people to prevail.

[Cedar Revolution]

Fubar is correct. P.M. Seniora may turn out to be one of the best prime ministers Lebanon ever had. Despite the myriad of challenges and mine fields, he is gradually building the army supported by UN forces and international backing; and dealing firmly with Syrian pockets whether in Palestinian camps or in residential neighborhoods. Give him time and he may achieve important military, political and economic objectives to the benefit of all Lebanese.

[fubar]

As the battle for the camp rages, and now that there are thousands of photos of the LAF to choose from, isn't it about time one of you techno geeks (cough*Jeha*cough) got busy on one or more of these for the LAF?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pF4RUMdhOwE

Just wondering...

[Charlie]

Siniora has played his hand really well. I think with the tribunal behind him, at least for now, I expect we will see more resolve from him in dealing with some of these security issues. Again though, no one should expect haste from him, he is not the kind of guy who would rush into anything.

[Charlie]

Looks like good progress on the ground for the LAF.
Fatah al-Islam’s 15 min of fame is running out.

http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&6413D2E6DEE6BC80C22572ED002BF905

[Shunkleash]

Finally, after 11 days of back and forth tooing and froing...the army has moved in. What has been spectacular about this whole thing however, and a few have alluded to it on this post...M14 seem to have grown BALLS!! Almost as soon as the Tribunal is announced and the Army kills the fuckers in the camp there is a sudden flurry of activity all centred around political concilliation. Especially, Messrs. Harriri, and Jumblatt et all talking about UNITY govt and Harriri jnr. inviting Aoun and Nasrallah over for tea and AHWEH to talk about it!!! As much as it sickens me to think that young boys of the LA have died...im starting to get the feeling that there was a plan somewhere in this bloody mess to weaken the M8 and the rest...although I have not quite figured it out yet.

Alternatively, I could be suffering from (according to my tita) gas in my brain for which I must now stand upside down for 1 hr while rubbing heated olive oil on my ESTOMACHHH.

Shunkleash - mazeitutoom

Peace....AYESH LUBNAN!!

[Jeha]

Fubar,

Alas, some techno-geeks is having some serious upload issues (cough*loser*cough). Hopefully, they will be solved soon enough...

[fubar]

(Daily Star, June 5) Future Movement leader MP Saad Hariri met with US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman Monday to discuss the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. Separately, Hariri called US President George W. Bush to thank him for the role played by the US at the Security Council to approve the establishment of an international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of his father, former Premier Rafik Hariri. Hariri also met Monday with the Mufti of Mount Lebanon, Sheikh Mohammad Ali Jouzou. Speaking after the meeting, Jouzou said those who did not welcome the international court "are enemies of the Lebanese people."

******

Well, I wasn't actually referring to Saad Hariri specifically above but I am sure that GWB appreciated the call none the less and it certainly never hurts to show good manners.