War, control and Pelosi

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Defense Minister Elias Murr often deny reports of arms smuggling through the Syrian border—but not Walid Jumblatt, who never shies away from dropping bombshells every once and a while. During an interview with Al-Jazeera Saturday, Jumblatt hinted, when asked to respond to Berri's accusation of widespread arming in the country, that the Lebanese army is turning a blind eye to the smuggling of weapons across the border. He also, for the first time, spoke of smuggling "tunnels" between the two countries and training camps for Hizbullah and other parties.

Although Jumblatt did not exactly deny reports of his own party acquiring weapons, he accused pro-Syrian parties of arming, and said that his party recognizes the state and wants the Lebanese state to be the sole authority to make war and peace decisions, in reference to Nasrallah launching a war last summer. Jumblatt described the sit-in in downtown Beirut as taking military positions. 

With mini-clashes erupting in some Mount Lebanon villages, Jumblatt, it seems, is preparing for the worst case scenario: a civil war during which pro-government forces engage in a perceived war of independence against pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian militias led by Hizbullah. It is even rumored that Aoun is setting up his own militia, and that the recently confiscated weapons truck actually belonged to the former general, who grew frustrated after the confrontation with the Lebanese forces during the riots he helped instigate.

So can there be a resolution? Jumblatt is pessimistic, and I tend to agree. In a separate statement yesterday, he warned of another downtown Beirut style occupation in his own turf in the mountains, coupled with roving rocket attacks.

And March 14 leaders continue to be sitting ducks. Sports minister Ahmad Fatfat on Saturday said that there were confirmed reports of assassination plots targeting cabinet ministers.  In the same statement, Fatfat said the country can only be secure if several issues, including Hizbullah's weapons and relations with Syrian, were resolved.

Despite the threats on their lives, and Nabih Berri's unashamed role in delaying the rule of law in the country, it seems that March 14 is still not ready to divorce the speaker, and often portray him as someone under "great pressure". Perhaps they still hope to avoid a war.

Former president Amin Gemayel said yesterday that he believes that Berri was not fully convinced of his own proposal, because "I believe as many others do that the initiative is somewhere else". He said the problem is the Syrian regime, which fears a fate similar to Saddam Hussein and the former regime in Yugoslavia. "Syria will prevent the tribunal at any cost, even if it had to destroy Lebanon completely," he told Radio Free Lebanon. Gemayel also said the Assad regime continues to control the country through high-ranking officials that it had put in palace during the tutelage era.

So instead of hitting back at Berri, we see March 14 resorting to the UN, indirectly relieving Berri of his responsibilities. Marwan Hamade, one of the first assassination targets of the Assad regime told al-Seyassah that the parliament's majority had no other choice but to go through the UN because it was being asked to protect a "killer regime". He added that Berri secretly wants the tribunal, but is facing "great pressure" by those obstructing its formation. Hamade said March 14 does not want to "control the country, but it's those who control war and peace decisions and keep illegitimate weapons who want to take control."  (reference to Hizbullah)

In what seems to be a threat of escalation, Hamade revealed that Siniora was "studying" the possibility of replacing the resigning ministers, and that he will ask Lahoud to sign the decree.

Sadly, and as we all know, March 14 and the cabinet are not really in control of the country-- especially of its armed forces. So all they can do right now is play defense (and if the reports are true, arm). They can also shoot down time-buying maneuvers by Berri's branch of the "opposition"—the latest of which was the proposal to hold dialogue in Saudi Arabia, which was rejected by the Saudi ambassador on Saturday.  With a Lebanese army unwilling to stop the flow of weapons across the Syrian border, and many of the country's security and civilian institutions answering to Syria and Hizbullah, it is not clear how a solution can be reached internally without dealing directly with the Assad regime.

By dealing directly with the Assad regime, I do not mean entering into "dialogue". For if the Lebanese know anything, it's that the regime's language of choice is terror. The Saudi regime knows this too, and it was reported that during the Arab summit, the Saudi king asked Bashar to leave Lebanon alone and hand over suspects to the Hariri tribunal. Bashar reportedly asked for some time to think about it. During that time, however, they received a present in the form of Nancy Pelosi.

As many others before me have rightly noted, Pelosi's visit sent the wrong message. The regime today may feel vindicated, and increasingly safe. The Democrats, avenging years of marginalization caused in part by their own failures and short-sightedness, are using the Middle East to win a popularity contest at home. Should this ignorant and irresponsible behavior continue, the result could very well be a civil war in Lebanon, and a victory for the Syrian-Iranian axis in Lebanon and Iraq. 

Comments

[Jeha]

Ghassan,

Why not? Pelosi visit is as stupid a stunt as any others that drove gravilo Prinzip to commit his act... Wars are often borne out of such miscalculations, and Pelosi's visit may encourage the Syrians to precipitate matters.

Fubar,

I am not sure how long it would have taken, but I prefer not to precipitate matters; the dangers pointed out by Traffic are all too real. Lenin once said that, in revolutions, history gallops; in this "revolution", the hoofs that we hear may well be those of the coming apocalypse.

... OK, it sounds a wee bit "grandiloquent", but it is not completely inaccurate.

[Traffic]

I think if Lebanon falls back into another internal armed conflict then HA will most probably lose the war. The problem will be that this war will take such a strong Sunni-Shiaa aspect that it will eventually lead to a rallying of all the Sunni fundamentalist hordes in the Arab world, which will be totally beyond the control of the relatively very moderate and liberal Sunni population in Lebanon led primarily by the future movement. Eventually, Christians will immigrate themselves into extinction, the future movement will be replaced by Al-Qaeda type organizations, and Nasrallah and Aoun will be locked up in nuthouses where they really belong. And poor "Lebanon" will be relegated to become just another example of failed coexistence and forced cohabitation.

[fubar]

Jeha,

"Cooler heads could have prevailed, and overriding business interests may have grown to challenge the Assads locally."

In who's lifetime? Everything takes time. And the Pasdaran Libnan will never give Lebanon or M14 the time necessary to truly undermine it.

[ghassan karam]

Jeha,
I am afraid that I cannot by any stretch accept the analogy between the actions that precipitated WWI and the Pelosi trip to Damascus.
To even hint at a relationship between the Trip by Pelosi and the rejuvination of the Baath regime in Syria is on the same level as claiming that beating on empty tine scares away an eclipse!!!
One can build a case for a rejuvinated Baath but that rejuvination did not start with the trip of Ms. Pelosi. The original post in B2B by AK did not gain strength from the gratuitous mention of the Pelosi role , just the opposite it betrayed an over emphasis of a surface phenomenon.

[Jeha]

Fubar,

You are correct, but AK has a point; to use a WW1 analogy, Prinzip did not start the war, but his actions precipitated it as interests were already lined up and ready for war. The sum of appeasement from Pelosi and her likes may have a similar effect, encouraging the Syrians to accelerate faster than they hoped.

However, without those misguided appeasement, who knows? Cooler heads could have prevailed, and overriding business interests may have grown to challenge the Assads locally.

[fubar]

AK ,

Other than a strafing run over the palace, there is nothing that will make Assad think he cannot get away with wreaking havoc in Lebanon. M14 is not beefing up its security for the fun of it. Unfortunately, there are always ways around security for the truly determined.

As for civil war, its just a question of timing, not eventuality. There is no non-violent resolution for Lebanon, except, of course, capitulation to Iranian Hezbollah.

[ghassan karam]

Fubars well desreved vacation has sure "cleared" his "mind". We have often had slight disagreements about the importance given to some developments but I am totally on his side when he says "Lets not blame a Lebanese war on the twit Pelosi".

The Pelosi trip to Syria might have been "spun" by the Syrian regime as a vindication of sorts but in the long run the trip and its benefits have the half life span of a light bulb moth.

The dynamics for a Lebanese civil war has been in place for decades and the trip by Pelosi "does not add up to a hill of beans" , with apologies to Boggie.

[Abu Kais]

Fubar-- come on now, I am not blaming a civil war on Pelosi, my point was that her visit could send the message to the Assad regime that they can get away with wreaking havoc in the country. The result of this is less pressure felt by the Assad regime, more complications in the country, and fewer chances to reach a resolution, hence increasing the chances of a civil war.

[Jeha]

I hate to agree with your excellent piece; I think a civil war is ever closer now. I would like to add two worrying elements:

First, Aoun is set to create a BF Mess. While he has few "fighting" supporters, he can rely on army units that may be still close to him, maybe even second-bureau types who are still egged on by Syria. This will ensure a bloody war between army elements and Christians, many of whom oppose Aoun. This will also exacerbate the feud between Christians; Bsharre (FL) and Zghorta (Franjieh), as well as internecine clan warfare (Franjieh/Moawad)... The internal fighting will effectively knock out the Christians from major operations, and will expose them to retaliation from Hezb's miltia (Zahleh)...

More worryingly, there are rumors in Shouf/Aley of schools closing in May. It seems that Joumblat has advised some schools to make provision for an early end to the school year.

[fubar]

AK says, "Should this ignorant and irresponsible behavior continue, the result could very well be a civil war in Lebanon, and a victory for the Syrian-Iranian axis in Lebanon and Iraq."

Vacations are supposed to clear your mind. Let's not blame a Lebanese civil war on the twit Pelosi. Lebanon has been headed there for at least 6 months without her help. At best, she is a hijab wearing, appeasement propagandist side show deserving of nothing more than ridicule, scorn, and, as proof there is a God, prosecution.