Miss Syria

The White House got a few things wrong, but it may have this one right when it asked Nancy Pelosi to "miss Syria"... Indeed, there may be a price for the ill-advised Pelosi trip to Syria. It is a price that we Lebanese will most likely pay. Again.

I and many fellow Lebanese would add our modest voices to plea for the speaker of the house to "miss Syria". Since the speaker is on a "fact-finding" mission to Lebanon, here are the simple facts; neither Lebanon, nor the United States, can afford that visit.

One simple fact; we Lebanese do not deserve Pelosi's visit to Damascus. It is true that we have more than a few faults; for one, our latest performance at the Arab Summit displayed our asinine propensity for division to the whole wide word. More insidious is the ongoing "debate" among our "leaders" on the latest electoral cuisine, where they are resolutely avoiding the real issue; the need for a representative system that reflects the country's demographic make-up while preserving its pluralism. Such a system would be called a bicameral legislature. But I digress...

Another simple fact; While America came into Iraq uninvited, it will not be allowed not leave Iraq uninvited. Yes, the United States blundered in Iraq under false and fabricated evidence. But that is beside the point; they are stuck there in one form or another until they can sort out the mess they have created. Any withdrawal will be a sign of weakness, with far-reaching consequences down the road; people like Ben Laden drew many lessons from the American withdrawal from Beirut in the 1980's, with far reaching consequences down the road.

The Iraq Study Group was right to remind the President that Syria matters in sorting out the Iraqi mess. But while the diagnosis was correct, the prescription was dead wrong. For all the merits of the members of the Baker-Hamilton commission, their work looks far more like recycled cold-war thinking, and does little to address the underlying causes of the mess. When she closed her jar, Pandora did not "unrelease" the  misfortunes her curiosity let loose on mankind, and only imprisoned hope. Hope was only released when Pandora, having screwed up once, persisted and opened the jar again. Baker-Hamilton's worthies could have done well to reflect on this myth; by running away now, the United States will keep this hope prisoner of Iraq's morass, and may even store more trouble for the future. By "engaging" enemies without demonstrating a willingness to use force, they would only be turning their defeat in Iraq into disgrace. They have to persist; Iraq may not be completely mended, but there is still a longing for better times among ordinary Iraqis...

I am not being excessively “biased” in this regard; the facts do justify skepticism towards Syrian intentions. For all the show at the Arab summit, the Syrians did not change their way. The Assad's cannot change their way, even if “realists” are willing to pursue a “Pyrrhic Peace” that would allow Syria back into Lebanon. In spite of all the treasure invested in the military, Syria remains too weak to afford any confrontation with its neighbors, except for Lebanon. Since the Syrian army’s main function is to secure the regime's power base,  Peace is out of the question either, since it will force in economic reforms the regime is ill-adapted to benefit from. Some Israeli Bitkhonists may advocate a "Syrian Solution" to the "Hezb problem", but they fail to realize that, much like Orwell’s “Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace”, the present  regime in Syria can only afford to keep on exporting terrorism to its neighbor's, thanks to willing help from Iran.

At this stage of the country’s mismanagement and under-development, the Syrian Regime’s interest in the peace process is limited to the process itself. They will jaw-jaw with Pelosi, and draw some comfort in their growing isolation. Then they go on hunting for more Lebanese politicians. And we'll pay the price, again.

At least, Miss Pelosi would have had the satisfaction of being, for a day, the most important woman in Syria... Miss Syria.

Jeha on April 2^nd, 2007 

Comments

[ghassan karam]

I would have much rather that Ms. Pelosi bypass Syria in her present tour of the ME but I also know that that would be very difficult to justify when one is engaged in a "fact finding" mission. Ms. Pelosi does not want the appearance that she is biased or that she has prejudged the facts. Her trip to Damascus could potentially become a liability to the Lebanese faction that is at odds with the Baath dictatorship if she makes statements that are favourable to the position of the Assad regime . If on the other hand, she delivers during her visit a message that Syria is expected to honour her international obligations by respecting the sovereignty of her neighbours then her trip could actually result in some gains to the stand of M14.

Syria will try to exploit the significance of the visit by Pelosi but unless the Syrian regime manages to get a concrete statement of support; very highly unlikely; then this trip will be forgotten in a weeks time. Ms Pelosi does shoot off the hip at times but I trust that during this trip she will be listening and non commital.

[BadVilbel]

How many "fact finding" missions must we endure? It can't possibly take this long to gather facts. I mean, come on. I'm sick and tired of "fact finding". We ALL know the facts, except apparently, these American politicians who must come over to find facts every 2 weeks. Great Jebus in the sky! *eyeroll*

PS: I agree with Jeha. Pelosi should have bypassed Damascus. We'll surely pay the price for this one, yet again.

[ghassan karam]

Fact finding is a never ending process and that is the way that it should be.
Ms. Pelosis trip to Damascuss is not intrinsically the wrong thing to do, just the opposite, maintaining channels of communication with your adversary is crucial. The visit by Pelosi to the Syrian dictator could actually be very helpful if Ms. Pelosi reiterates the message that was delivered recently by Mr. Solana that Syria has to renounce its support to terrorism and must change its behaviour if it expects the international community to diminish its isolation of the regime. I have no reason to suspect that Nancy Pelosi will play into the plans of the Syrian propaganda. If Ms. Pelosi delivers a stern, a tough and firm message to Bashar AlAssad and I expect her to then no efforts by the Syrian propaganda machine should be able to spin the visit into a Syrian victory, moral or otherwise.Dialogue, contacts and fact finding is good, appeasement is bad.

[BadVilbel]

I just finished posting a comment elsewhere that addresses this point. To you and me, "Fact finding" and "appeasement" might be 2 distinct things. But they are perceived as one and the same by the Syrian regime and by its local populace.

With every visit from a western politician to Damascus, Bashar and co. are confered (in their own minds) some form of "we can get away with it" legitimacy, that emboldens them to crack down on their dissentors at home, not to mention continue their meddling in the regional affairs (in Lebanon and Palestine). The way they spin these visits is as a victory (whether you or I think otherwise is irrelevant). As far as the Syrian regime, and the Syrian people are concerned, it's a victory. The message is "You can get away with blackmail. The worst that can happen is you'll get chastised by some western diplomat. On the upsde, someone will eventually recommend the US engage you and give you some form of ransom for stopping your nefarious activities (*cough*IraqStudyGroup*cough*)"
Bottom line, there is no incentive for the Syrian regime to stop its interference in Lebanon and Palestine, and there is no incentive for them to stop cracking down on "dissenters" inside Syria.

I'm sorry, but you can call it "fact finding" all you want, you simply shouldn't be giving a blackmailing thug ANY form of reward. If your neighbour throws a brick through your window, day after day, and keeps demanding you buy your replacement windows from him, you don't go to check out his window and doors store (even if you're just fact finding, and not buying anything). Do you?
What you do is (1) Call the Police and (2) Definitely get your replacement windows elsewhere. On principle alone.

[Jeha]

Ghassan,

I tend to agree with BV on this one. You would be correct if we were talking about any other situation. But Syria is so isolated that any visit will be interpreted to its advantage.

I think we fail to comprehend the mentality of the Assad regime; they may not be after anything more than staying in power and keeping the rents coming. Much like a gambler, more addicted to playing than winning, the current Syrian regime's priority may be the process itself, and not its eventual conclusion. Such is the weight of Hama's inheritance.

[ghassan karam]

Jeha/Bad V.
The possibility that the Pelosi trip might be misunderstood by Syria is an issue that must be considered but in this case I feel that the potential benefit from such a trip ,especially if Ms. Pelosi speaks firmly to the Dictator of Damascus, is worth the risk. She might be able to contribute in a small way to a change in the policies followed by Syria in the region. Do not underestimate the power of a one two punch delivered by two seasoned diplomats that represent both the EU and the US.
The following is reported by Reuters and if the Pelosi group lives up to these expectations then they would do some listening but they will be doing some lecturing of their own:

Pelosi,... said she would speak to the Syrians about Iraq, their role in the fight against terrorism, their support for militant groups such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas -- whose exiled leaders live in Damascus -- as well their influence in Lebanon.

"We are going with the clear intention of making our position crystal clear to the Syrian leadership, basically indicating that it is in their interest to return to a position where they can be part of the positive forces in this region and not be in tight alliance with Ahmedinejad's Iran," Lantos (amember of the Pelosi delegation)said, referring to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In a week or maximum a fortnight we will be in a position to judge whether this trip turns out to be the disaster that some are predicting or whether it will enduce the Baath regime to change its behaviour. Most likely outcome is that the trip will turn out to be a forgettable non-event:-)

[Hmmm]

Pardon the confused American. Who is Pelosi?

[Bad Vilbel]

Pelosi is the majority leader in the US senate!

Ghassan,

You claim that some forceful lecturing by the EU and US diplomats might cause some policy change in Damascus. I know you don't really believe that. How many EU and US diplomats have shuttled to Damascus over the past 3 years to lecture about Lebanon and Iraq? COUNTLESS. None of those visits have results in any sort of policy change in Damascus. At least not for the better. What makes you think this might be different?
And more importantly, how many more tries will it take for people to realize it ain't gonna happen? The French tried for years, and eventually Chirac himself (about a year ago) gave up and started telling people that talking to Damascus was useless and that visits to Bashar only served to encourage his behavior.

[ghassan karam]

Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker of the House.

Bad,
No one can disagree that Syria will spin the Pelosi visit into a historical development of unprecedented proportions. Such stories have no credence whatsoever outside of Al Thawra. Tishreen and other Syrian rags. The whole world knows that there is no such thing as free media outlet in Syria. What passes for newspapers is no more than instruments of propaganda and biased controlled news that has very limited , if any use, outside of Syria. As such I do not see any lasting value that Syria will be able to extract from this visit . If they overexagerate the implications of this visit, and I imagine that they will, then they will be only cheating themselves. I agree with you that Bashar is not likely to change his behaviour. I will even argue that he is not in a position to change Syrian behaviour. Domestically the other members of the Assad clan will always work to protect their selfish interests and Iran will not let go easily of the Syrian alliance. Yet I do not see any harm in delivering to Damascus yet another message about the need for it to change its behaviour. I do not understand the connection that you and others are making between this visit and Syrian policy in Lebanon. Syria has most probably planned and orchestrated a series of assassinations in Lebanon over the past two years even though it was "isolated" so what makes you think that Syria needs the "legitimacy" of a Pelosi visit in order to resume such murderous activities? Iran will not let go of Syria, Syria will not let go of Lebanon and HA will continue its role as an Iranain/Syrian client. All of this instability and mayhem will continue until the Lebanese stand up and demand their emancipation. Unfortunately that is not in the cards yet with or without a Pelosi visit.

[Bad Vilbel]

I did not mean to imply a cause and effect relationship between the visit and a string of assassinations.

I guess what I'm saying is that for the Syrian policy to change, eventually, not only must it be isolated diplomatically, but the vise must be tighten to squeeze the regime. Bashar and co. must be made to sweat, the same way Iran is being made to sweat over its nukes and North Korea before it.

Call it a psychological approach, if you will.

There is no DIRECT cause and effect, as I just stated. But Bashar and co. are thugs who operate at a very primal level. Bullies. If you will. You have to break their will and their backs to get them to stop. Diplomatic visits and the such are perceived as a sign that they can get away with their current policies. So indirectly, these visits hinder any efforts at putting these guys in their place.
King Abdallah's apparent "embrace" of Assad at the Arab summit, for example, didn't help. For a few weeks prior, and specially when Assad had come out and insulted the Saudi King, he had been made to sweat. He had been put in his place, for a while. Then you go and kinda make nice with him, and before you know it, he'll feel empowered again.

These things DO have consequences, though indirect.

[Jeha]

Ghassan,

I understand the very rational arguments that you are advancing, and they make perfect sense in the context of nations. Except that we're not really in the context of nations here, but more on "street level".

In this respect, I think BV's Bullies analogy is a perfect one.

Back in my school days, bullies left me alone mainly because I was too bloody minded... The perception of having a clan behind you also helps. In the case of Lebanon, M14 have not been showing enough bloody mindedness, and Pelosi's visit shows (from a Syrian perspective) that the "clan" backing us up is weak.

Even higher-level thinking among Syrians is impaired; from my discussions with some of their "brains", you get the feeling that the Great Empire of the Omeyyads, allied with Cyrus the Great, only needs to wait for those American upstarts to tire and leave. I see this attitude reflected in Landis' latest work. Whatever one thinks of his merits, or lack thereof, the guy is a useful barometer, properly reflecting the mindset of the current regime within the noise of his rambling (PSNS-Style) pieces... Apparently, the Syrians consider that the Arab Summit was a success because it highlighted "Arab Unity and respect for the Arab nation were the overriding themes of the Arab League summit in Riyadh". They seem to link the Pelosi visit to a sense of "[fatalism in] Washington [among hard-minded realists like Armitage who] will just wait until the President's plan completely fails".

[ali bm]

so what do you advocate jeha, cause i get the feeling that you believe that boycotting syria is not enough and that the americans have to go in with all guns blazing while maintaining their bloody efforts in Iraq? if that is so then you are being very dismissive of the human cost of such an endeavour. we lebanese will not get out toll-free. if the americans do to syria what they did to iraq then you well get the same result as in Iraq curently: sectarian war and bloodshed which will very naturally spill across our porous borders all the way to beirut.

[Jeha]

Ali,

No, I do not advocate outright war either. What I advocate is that the United States should look into having a foreign policy.

Back in 1948/1950, when it was clear that the United States would be confronted by the Soviet Empire, they developed a "Truman Doctrine" to define how they would oppose the growing threat. This established the framework of how they operated, and while it lead to Vietnam, it also allowed them to win the cold war.

The threat today is far more dangerous and far more global and far more insidious than the threat of Totalitarian Communism. It can only be defeated by a long-term view, and a greater understanding of the world and its cultures. Once they develop that long-term vision, the Americans can then take that challenge, and they will find willing allies.

However, all that's on offer today is "reactionary" in the sense that they pursue policies tailored to narrow business or electoral interests...

[frankyb]

Pelosi going to damascus in hope of some political persuasion!have they found out about Bashars Achilles Heal?is she going to do a sharon stone in the talk?Is the femenine touch going to remind Bashar of a motherly figure,and so become soft and attentive to what she has to say?what a joke,how can diplomacy work with ppl who dont know what diplomacy is...they are still in the middle ages,you have to speak to them in their own language.The articles have already been written with a Syrian victory as headlines.I agree with Karams fact that we should engage our enemies but what language do we use?Im sensing some draw cards and incentives in pelosis briefcase...thats the only language Bashar understands and the Americans know that...i used to think the Lebanese people were pawns,now i dont even think theyre on the chessboard.

[BadVilbel]

how can diplomacy work with ppl who dont know what diplomacy is?

We have a winner, ladies and gents.

[ghassan karam]

I am not sure whether to laugh or to cry or maybe both. The Pelosi trip was reported in the two major Syrian rags/newspapers Al Baath and Al thawra in the exact same words!!! Furthermore many of you would be pleased to learn that the difference between Bush and Pelosi is the fact that she has an Italian ancestry and that she represents an educated district in San Fransisco while Bush's supporters are neo Zionist Texan oil men!!!!

Not to be outdone Tishreen covered for its Syrian readership the antics of the duel between Trump and WWE's McMahon but without telling the readers that all of this is a staged event.

Is it possible to be more clueless!!! Bad/Jeha and others, maybe you were right afterall, there is nothing that can be gained from visiting Neanderthals!

[Bad Vilbel]

Time for me to pull out the "I told you so" card :)

[Jeha]

I wish it was any other way. Because Syrian intransigence may have dire consequences on the long run. Pelosi's visit may yet make things worse than I feared... Unfortunately, we cannot sue politicians for stupidity; it seems to be a feature of the profession.

[Roman Kalik]

I doubt Pelosi thought this matter through, and as Jeha said the current batch of politicians looks only at the short term. This visit was, I suspect, more to snub Bush than it was to persue any far-reaching international political goals. And I agree, the US should really get *a* foreign policy. So should Israel for that matter.
Sad, really. And the visit gave Assad what he was in dire lack of: a little confidence.