March 14: Beirut before Riyadh

In response to Nabih's Berri proposal to hold a "national conference" in Saudi Arabia, Saad Hariri and other March 14 figures said that though they welcome a "declaration" in Riyadh, an agreement should be first reached on Lebanese soil.

Berri is apparently going out of his way to create a rift between the Saudis and March 14—a role consistent with his status as mediator between the Assad regime and the kingdom of Saud. By moving the talks from Beirut to Riyadh, Berri hopes to corner March 14 and show them as anti-Saudi. The Saudi ambassador in Lebanon has been playing it like he's falling for Berri's wax poetics about the greatness of the king, and Saudi's role in bringing a resolution to the conflict. Does Berri want an environment free of Syrian influence, or is the intention to portray the conflict as a "purely Lebanese matter" between his allegedly patriotic camp and the "hawks" of March 14, ignoring the Syrian and Iranian roles altogether?

PM Fouad Siniora also responded to Berri's interview with a list of facts regarding the compensations in the south and the suburb—which Berri said did not exceed fixing broken glass. Siniora accused Berri of falsifying facts and leveling unfounded accusations about violating the constitution.

Berri saying that currently it is not clear who is the original minister and who is acting... in this regard the parliament speaker can ask the ministers who represent the Amal movement whether they...have truly resigned or not, or they just work when it pleases them and consider themselves resigned whenever they want.

ب ـ قوله انه في الوضعية الحالية   ليس معروفا من هو الوزير الأصيل ومن هو البدل عن ضائع. في هذا المجال فإنه بإمكان دولة رئيس مجلس النواب أن يسأل الوزراء الذين يمثلون حركة أمل ما إذا كانوا يمارسون عملهم في وزاراتهم أم لا، فالرئيس بري لم يوضح للرأي العام، إذا كان وزراء حركة أمل قد استقالوا فعلاً أم أنهم يمارسون عندما يحلو لهم ويعتبرون أنفسهم مستقيلين عندما يريدون.

Speaking of those ministers, who seem to only report to work to perform favors for their buddies, March 14 deputy Walid Eido called on Siniora today to end the farce by accepting their resignation and appointing new ministers.  (Source: National News Agency)

Meanwhile, and following Berri's threat to do away with parliament (the possible resignation of 50 deputies with no by-elections "possible"), Michel Aoun accused March 14 deputies who signed the petition of committing high treason and called for the dissolution of parliament. Aoun's argument is that Lebanese matters should be settled internally and that it's not the function of the UN Security Council to rule on the Hariri tribunal. (Source: LBC)

Aoun should check with his tent buddies, and especially those now requesting a Saudi solution, and who follow orders from Damascus and Tehran. But then, what is this "opposition" if not a hodgepodge of traitors and opportunists.

Comments

[ghassan karam]

Finally some signs of life by the M14 leadership. It still is not enough but the latest declarations by M14 are encouraging. Maybe the patient can still be revived to regain full health. Nothing les will do.

Bad V, I saw the following in an edirorial in the Washington Post of Thursday, read it, enjoy it but dont gloat:-)

"Ms. Pelosi not only misrepresented Israel's position but was virtually alone in failing to discern that Mr. Assad's words were mere propaganda....
As any diplomat with knowledge of the region could have told Ms. Pelosi, Mr. Assad is a corrupt thug whose overriding priority at the moment is not peace with Israel but heading off U.N. charges that he orchestrated the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri. The really striking development here is the attempt by a Democratic congressional leader to substitute her own foreign policy for that of a sitting Republican president....Ms. Pelosi's attempt to establish a shadow presidency is not only counterproductive, it is foolish."

[Bad Vilbel]

Yup. I saw that yesterday. (No gloating)

On Abu Kais' post: I'll spare everyone my usual ramblings about what a joke these idiots like Berri and Aoun are and what mockery they continue to make of the constitution and the state.

I still don't get why Siniora doesn't do exactly what Eido suggested: Accept the resignation of the ministers and appoint new ones. If the opposition wants to disregard the state and the rule of law, M14 shouldn't be. M14 should be making a model of showing everyone how to exercise their constitutional rights in how they govern. People in Lebanon need to start understanding the very basic premise of democracy: When you win elections and you're in power, you don't have to accomodate the opposition. Your job is to rule. Period.

[R]

BV, a few months ago I advocated the acceptance of the resignations, appointing new ministers and waiting for Lahoud to refuse to sign the decree then using that as a pretext to pre-empt the opposition and march to Baabda, where they should be camped until now. Unfortunately, they chose appeasement, lost the momentum and we are where we are now.

I don't think that the same option is viable anymore. The option that IS viable is holding parliament under Makari and completely outflanking Berri. March 14, however is governed by a lack of resolve to govern, so don't expect too much :).

[Bad Vilbel]

You did indeed advocate this months ago. And you're absolutely correct in that the next move should be to hold parliament without Berri.
You're also right in assuming that M14 won't manage to grow any balls to do that any time soon.

[Jeha]

Praise the Lord! ... Or Darwin, or both; they seem to have grown a spine. "Beirut Before Ryad" is a good start.

I would still want the parliament to be convened regardless of what Berri says; his masters are the ones that matter, and it may be time to call their bluff. Indeed, while the Syrians may appear happy with Pelosi's peripatetics, the Iranians appear chastised and divided after the British fiasco. M14 should exploit that weakness, and by the time the two puppeteers get their act together, we'd have a tribunal... With Lebanese judges.

[Traffic]

BV, I think that Siniora has been reluctant to accept the resignations of the ministers because simply he cannot appoint new ministers without the signature of Lahoud, so no deal, simply because a government without any Shiaa ministers at all will not fly. So really the key of any real "Lebanese made" change cannot start before 7 months i.e. when Lahoud's term ends. Hopefully M14 camp can be decisive in that battle because 7 months is a lot to edure given the current situation.

[JoseyWales]

Question and comment:

Q: This gvmnt. is paralyzed. Why not resign resign and put the onus on Lahoud/Hezbo?

Lahoud has to appoint an M14 chosen PM etc...If this gvmnt is out, it can take care of routine affairs (not the tribunal though) until we have a new gvmnt, i.e, until after the presidential election. Such could get us to focus on more important things: the Prez election.

Comment: On the Prez election M14 needs, right now, to campaign aggressively (with the Maronite Pat and everyone else) that Lahoud staying 1-second beyond November is a nonstarter. That whatever mumbo-jumbo questions are open on the current gvmnt and Berri's ability to shut down parliament, the ELECTION procedure should be EXPLAINED CLEARLY AND DEFENDED NOW, lest we get a bigger constitutional catastrophe in November.

[ghassan karam]

Josey,
You raise an excellent point. History, at least the relatively recent one, does not bode very well. The Lebanese elected officials have constantly acted as if the law and the constitution do not carry any power unless they serve their purposes. In many of the issues and in particular the Presidential Electione the law is anything but ambiguous. It speaks in clear and language about the absolute need for the elections to be held by the current chamber whenever the Presidency is vacant for any reason.
As for the silly talk by both Lahoud and Berri about the present Cabinet being unconstitutional, again the constitution is very clear. The cabinet will have to resign if it looses for any reason more than 1/3 of its original numbers.
In many cases the problem is not the law or its ambiguity but the lack of concern and respect for it.

I thought that the following few Articles from the Lebanese constitution speak to the valid concerns that you raise:

Article 32
The President of the Republic is required to convoke the Chamber if an absolute majority of the total membership so requests.

Article 34 [Quorum]
The Chamber is not validly constituted unless the majority of the total membership is present. Decisions are to be taken by a majority vote. Should the votes be equal, the question under consideration is deemed rejected.

Article 41 [Re-election]
Should a seat in the Chamber become vacant, the election of a successor begins within two months. The mandate of the new member does not exceed that of the old member whose place he is taking; however, should the seat in the Chamber become vacant during the last six months of its mandate, no successor may be elected.

Article 49
(2) The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient. The President's term is for six years. He may not be re-elected until six years after the expiration of his last mandate. No one may be elected to the Presidency of the Republic unless he fulfills the conditions of eligibility for the Chamber of Deputies.

Article 62 [Vacancy]
Should the Presidency become vacant for any reason whatsoever, the Council of Ministers exercises the powers of the President by delegation.

Article 73 [Election of the President]
One month at least and two months at most before the expiration of the term of office of the President of the Republic, the Chamber is summoned by its President to elect the new
President of the Republic. However, should it not be summoned for this purpose, the Chamber meets of its own accord on the tenth day preceding the expiration of the President's term of office.

Article 74 [Vacancy of Presidency]
Should the Presidency become vacant through the death or resignation of the President or for any other cause, the Chamber meets immediately and by virtue of the law to elect a successor. If the Chamber happens to be dissolved at the time the vacancy occurs, the electoral bodies are convened without delay and, as soon as the elections have taken place, the Chamber meets by virtue of the law.
Article 75
The Chamber meeting to elect the President of the Republic is considered an electoral body and not a legislative assembly. It must proceed immediately, without discussion or any other act, to elect the Head of the State.

[JoseyWales]

Gus,

Article 73 is clear, Berri can go screw himself 10 days before Lahoud's term expires, parliament should meet (as an electoral college only).

As you know Aoun and Hezbo are saying now that:

"Article 49
(2) The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient."

means that you need 2/3 of deputies present to get the election going. I am no lawyer but it is clear from scholars and preceding Leb constitutions that such is not the case.

M14 should be very clear right now on all this. If possible, the PM should make it clear, again RIGHT NOW, that the army will be called upon to APPLY the law, when and if.

It should also be made clear to all officers, including the Presidential Guard's, that martial courts will be open for biz.

These idiots (M14 and gvmnt) should for ONCE, make it clear that the LAW will be upheld no matter who is elected or not elected.

You must say to people the LAW will be upheld because it's the LAW, not because "our" guy got elected, if that. If you wait too long, that's how everything becomes suspicious and tainted.

[ghassan karam]

Josey,
Like you, I am not trying to pass myself as a constitutional lawyer, but the interpretation of Article 49 by Berri and Aoun does not fly.
Artricle 34 spells out the conditions that must be met to have a quorum. Simple majority is enough. Article 49 says that if a Presidential candidate is to be elected on the first round then 2/3 of the votes are required. If that is not met then a simple majority on the second round is sufficient.

But let me stress again that your point about the need to iron out all of these details in advance is crucial. Can Milequetoast become statesman overnight, ? Is it possible to develop a "spine" or is one destined to remain a "jellyfish" ? Is it possible to create a society of "law and order"? Only time will tell.

[ghassan karam]

Josey,
The longer that I ponder the interpretation that Berri/Aoun are attaching to Article 49 the more I become convinced that they are simply WRONG. If one is to apply their interpretation about the need for 2/3 of the membership in order to convene the chamber to elect a president then that would effectively give any opposition bloc whose membership amounts to 1/3 plus one of the deputies a veto power. Surely that is never the intention of the framers of any constitution any where in the world. But logic has never been the strong suit of those that are blindly guided by their personal ambitions to occupy an office at any cost. As much as I disagree with Nasrallah and even Berri I have more respect for these guys because their position is arguably ideological but Aouns position is based on crass personal gain. The man is a disaster.

[Jeha]

Ghassan,

There is an interesting historic reversal in this. In 1988/1990, Aoun was constitutionally right, and his opponents wrong. Today, he is constitutionally wrong, and his opponents right.

More interestingly, he is using the same approach and legal argumentation that his opponents used against him back in the day.

[Traffic]

I will have to agree that Aoun/Berri/HA's explanation of the consitution is nothing more than self-serving interpretations that have been refuted by all respected legal experts.
Still I believe that HA will stand at nothing to get what it wants, which will always keep M14 camp reluctant to assert itself. But we can always take "comfort" in the fact that the probability that we reach the presidential elections before a course changing regional event happens are very slim, which will open the situation in Lebanon to all possibilities. Let's hope Leabnon comes out on top this time (although history does not favor such an outcome).

[Bad Vilbel]

Josey Wales says:
You must say to people the LAW will be upheld because it's the LAW, not because "our" guy got elected, if that. If you wait too long, that's how everything becomes suspicious and tainted.

THIS, my friends, is the no.1 issue hindering any sort of democracy in Lebanon. People in Lebanon have simply never understood this very simple mentality (and I don't think they're about to). And until this notion of the rule of LAW is imposed and enforced on the people, we'll continue to be a county of idiots, governed by idiots, with no functional institutions.

[Mo]

Question: Do you support the govt because you hate the opposition or do you actuallu like and respect these people?

Question: Does the accusation of hypocrisy not worry you when reffering to the opposition as "a hodgepodge of traitors and opportunists". When you support a group that contains Jumblatt, quite possibly the greatest opportunist that ever lived and Geagea, a man who has openly admitted to preffering Israeli company rather than Lebanese Muslims, is such an accusation a bit rich?

And on that note, complaining of ministers "who seem to only report to work to perform favors for their buddies" is farcical from a cabinet of feudal families looking to maintain ther hegemony of a country o that they can suck every last penny from its people.