The settlement and the devil

A wave of cautious optimism struck the Lebanese political scene in the days preceding the Iranian-Saudi summit in Riyadh. Reports of an impending settlement to the "Lebanese file" before the March 28th Arab summit have invaded the Lebanese media. However, both parties to the conflict are waving a "plan B" should the Saudis and Iranians fail to agree on the details. And since the devil is in those details, and that devil goes by the name Bashar Assad, it is not clear how, exactly, the "file" will be "closed" sooner than "many Lebanese expect", as one "Arab source" told As-Safir.

The proposed settlement, according to Lebanese media, consists of the good old 19-10-1 "national unity government" formula, with the independent (the 1) chosen by the opposition camp, allowing them to rename the formula 19-11. Part of the settlement is also to form a joint committee from both camps to "study" amendments to the international tribunal without "emptying it", on the condition that a national unity government and the international tribunal are "concurrent"— meaning March 14 wants a guarantee that the new cabinet would approve the tribunal.  This "legal committee" would be given 5 days to study the tribunal's bylaws and suggest amendments that would please both parties.

But it is really up to the Iranians and Saudis to agree on a version of the tribunal that pleases both camps, and doesn't scare the Syrian regime. Ahmadinejad will likely represent the Syrian side in this, and the Saudi king has brought Saad Hariri to Riyadh for a rumored meeting with the street sweeper of Tehran. 

Hizbullah has been warning of American attempts to sabotage this settlement, and March 14 is not sure, even if the Iranians are on board, that the Assad regime would let the settlement pass. I tend to agree that the chances Assad would let the tribunal, amended or not, get to parliament, are slim. Even if Bashar gets invited back into the league of Arab despots, I doubt he would let parliament convene. While Hizbullah uses the US opposition to the Mecca agreement as evidence of Uncle Sam's allegedly obstructionist behavior, one does not need to dig deep for evidence of obstruction by the Assad regime: the recent terrorist attack in Ain Alaq, the daily discovery of explosives, and, if one must go back in time, the 2002 Beirut peace initiative, which was blown up by Assad's suicide agents, and finished off by Israel's army.

But if terrorism is the Assad regime's weapon of choice, what about the warring camps in Lebanon? Both camps have prepared plan Bs. Hizbullah's plan B seems to begin with "civil disobedience", and ends with Syrian-appointed President Emile Lahoud refusing to hand over power at the end of his term and appointing a care-taker government.

March 14's plan B begins with a chapter 7 resolution establishing the court, but it's not clear where it ends. Jumblatt and Hariri went to the US and Europe respectively to get endorsement for a potential chapter 7 resolution.

With a little Syrian help, civil war is always a possibility. Hizbullah's "resistance" is gradually expanding and accepting domestic enemies. Hizbullah's recent statements have clearly identified Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geagea as agents of the Great American conspiracy to create a "New Middle East". The Iranian-imposed truce with Hariri will not last long if the son of the slain goes for chapter 7. How a war would play out is up for speculation, but one thing is certain—all are arming, and not even Walid Jumblatt in his interview with Marcel Ghanem a few weeks ago could deny it. Last week, the Maronite Patriarch himself confirmed it. The war may not take the form of the 1975 war. I think we're looking at a de-facto partitioning of the country and collapse of the army, and one or two governments claiming legitimacy.  Chaos is the best anti-dote to rule of law, and the Hariri tribunal.

But let's not be too grim too soon. Can the Saudis really sponsor an end to this crisis, which plays out in Beirut, but has roots everywhere else in the region? The problem with "hoping against hope" at this point in time is that any settlement that does not factor in Hizbullah's weapons is not much of a solution. The assumption that these weapons are an "internal matter" no longer flies. And any fake appeasement of the Assad regime will not cancel the fact that no independent and sovereign Lebanon can exist, or be allowed to exist, as long as Bashar is in power. It's the sad truth that the Saudis do not want to discuss, for fear of stoking a fire that could eat up the entire region.

Ironically, only former warlords Jumblatt and Geagea, are articulating the truth of the matter. There can be no country with a militia in charge of security and war decisions, no country without an army with a clear mandate to confront plots against the state, and no country without secured borders and disengagement from regional and international struggles.

Comments

[Jeha]

true; "no independent and sovereign Lebanon can exist, or be allowed to exist, as long as Bashar is in power".

With this in mind, even a deal would be postponing the confrontation.

[Charlie]

No matter how watered down the tribunal gets Bashar is not going to sign up to it, so a confrontation is on the horizon. March-14 is better served in helping the Syrian opposition come together as a true and viable alternative to Bashar’s Baath regime and sell that to the regional king makers.

[ghassan karam]

Here we go again. The denial and pretnce seem to have no end in Lebanon. As long as appeasement is the guiding principle for the proposed resolution then I will predict with a very high degree of certainty ( how about 99%) that this solution will last just as long as any of the previous solutions. I will not be surprised if the Iranian pressures and that of the Sadudis will force their Lebanese clients to give this solution a try. But as long as we persist in recognizing the real issues and as long as we show the propensity to accept the artificial instead of the real then this wound will fester and it will infect again the whole body politic. The idea of "la ghaleb wa la maghloob" has not worked , cannot work and will not work.
It is unfortunate that no one believes in the idea of a sovereign state strongly enough as to refuse to accept cosmetically planned solution whose surface allure will tarnish in a short period of time as to reveal the deep fissures. Even the concept of a federation is not workable in the Lebanese case. A fedreation or a confederation is a workable arrangement whenever the constituents differ about the purely local. They resolve such pressures by giving regions local autonomy but the central government reserves the power of setting foreign policy and making war and peace. In Lebanon what separates us is both foreign and domestic. As a result we have to dismiss once and for all the idea of a federation. If we decide that we cannot live together then separation into statelets is the only solution.
Lebanon , in its current political boundaries can be saved and should be made viable. But that cannot happen unless the residents are willing to act as citizens. A general survey of the current Lebanese population reveals to this observer the following: If the Iranian moral , military and financial support for HA is removed and if pressure is applied on Damascus to stop its interference then the Lebanese crisis will loose its regional dimmension and will be transformed overnight into a domestic social and economic crisis. Under such conditions the opposition will resort to the ballot box to make its case and a democratic struggle for policy options will ensue.

The 9-10-1 formula is a disaster in the making. It will only postpone things. To allow the Iranian and Syrian interference to continue is abominable. To become more dependent on the Saudis or the Europeans or the Americans is unacceptable. Federations , in the Lebanese case, are unworkable. The only solutions that should be sought are the ones that address genuinely the problem of the Lebanese crisis at its roots. Illegal; flow of funds, arms, militias and agents should be stopped and the international borders are to be respected. Nothing short of that will work. The international community has a moral obligation to save the Lebanese from themselves by stopping the foreign interferences especially the Iranian and Syrian efforts to sow discord and ferment instability.

[fubar]

Ghassan,

"The international community has a moral obligation to save the Lebanese from themselves by stopping the foreign interferences especially the Iranian and Syrian efforts to sow discord and ferment instability."

The "international community" has no morals. This is the equivalent of saying the "Arab world" has the moral obligation to stop the genocide in Darfur. Yeah, so... Many want to believe in such collective moral obligations, but don't kid yourself. The "international community" will issue an apoligy 50 to 100 years from now and all will be good. The "Arab world," of course, never agologizes and, still, it's all good.

[LebExile]

Great article AK, although, you neglect to mention there are other issues at stake here, the Iranians will take into account Syrian interests, but, at the end of the day, the US has Iran in its cross-hairs, and any Saudi deal could be a quid pro quo - back off us, and we back off Lebanon.

[R]

lol, fubar, you beat to the punch on this one.
The situation, simply, is boiling. The regional dimension of the problem necessitates a radical solution to the deadlock sometime in the medium range future. Iran has its nuclear issue, Syria its tribunal and international isolation, and we have the elephant in the room. Something has to give... I have argued repeatedly that unless something major happens in Syria or Iran, then the pressure is going to boil over in Lebanon. BOth of them have too much to lose in Lebanon to just admit defeat there... Moreover, I just cannot see a solution that is acceptable to all Lebanese players and their foreign support that can last for over a few months.
So the game is about time - stalling until something changes in the equation... but I doubt that anything will before Lebanon breaks.

[Charlie]

“Even the concept of a federation is not workable in the Lebanese case. A fedreation or a confederation is a workable arrangement whenever the constituents differ about the purely local. They resolve such pressures by giving regions local autonomy but the central government reserves the power of setting foreign policy and making war and peace. In Lebanon what separates us is both foreign and domestic. As a result we have to dismiss once and for all the idea of a federation. If we decide that we cannot live together then separation into statelets is the only solution.”

Agree on the Federation point, but disagree on the statelets. The same issue that presently threaten Lebanese existence, namely Syria, will continue to exist and rather increase if Lebanon is turned into statelets. Basically Syria wants to control all of Lebanon whether it is one state or multiple little ones.

[LebExile]

Ghassan,

The international community will live up to it's moral obligations when the Lebanese community lives up to their patriotic obligations.
The IC will interfere as long as there are willing candidates in Lebanon to fight for this and that cause.

[ghassan karam]

Fubar/R/LebExile/others
I am not gulible enough to believe that the international community is going to live up to its moral obligatio:-) It never did, I live in NYC !!! My point, and it does not differ from R's or Fubar's is that the root cause needs to be addressed and since a part of the Lebanese is still willing to advance the interests of others then if Lebanon is to survive then we have to find a way to stop this foreign interference that is made so easy because of a portiuon of the Levbanese themselves. This eventuality is very unlikely to occur and that is why I have not been optimistic about the Lebanese future. I still maintain that HA will not achieve its goals but neither would the democratic, secular Lebanese. Lebanon will find a way to muddle through and maintain an official existence. To me that is not acceptable.

[fubar]

Ghassan,

Now there is the new Ghassan again. You must fight the urge to slip back into the old Ghassan. = )

BTW, that is some nasty spelling there. Something going on underneath your desk that we don't want to know about? = ) (Rhetorical question)

[Charlie]

Fubar,

"BTW, that is some nasty spelling there. Something going on underneath your desk that we don't want to know about? = ) (Rhetorical question)"

your mind is going wild, one too many Rolling Rocks tonight??....:-)

[fubar]

LOL, Charlie, just a few, but my official counter is MIA tonight and, since counting is not in my skill set, I have no idea when I will hit one too many. = )

[fubar]

(AP via Ynet) Lebanese customs authorities stopped a suspicious-looking car in the Mount Lebanon region east of the country's capital on Saturday and seized weapons and ammunition found inside, the customs department said in a statement.

The customs officers, known to patrol the main artery to the east of Beirut, stopped the French-made Renault 12 vehicle in Bhamdoun, a town in the mountains overlooking Beirut shortly before noon, the statement said. It did not say what had made the car look suspicious, nor whether it was traveling to or from the Lebanese capital. The highway links Beirut with the eastern Bekaa Valley.

********

Customs strikes again.

[Joseph]

Recent News: Carload of Machine Guns Confiscated
This is starting to get a bit more serious.

I don't want to hear about bombs. This may be Syria maybe not. But if its not, then it is obvious who would deliberately do this other than Syria. Shamefully a backer of the march14 movement (which I'd like to start calling 'the Right' and March 8 the Left).

Why I follow the March 14:
===========================
I have a more founded hunch that Syria might be behind all this, because it suites her to have a country in trouble to deal with vis-a-vis its dealing on the table with Iraq. If it hasn't struck you yet, we are a bargaining country with Iraq. In Iraq it went ugly for the US, and all the people in North America are fed up. The catastrophe for the Bush administration not doing so well is pushing for Democrat's in this game.

Lebanon vs Iraq
================
Like the 90's when James Baker agreed with Syria to help the US in the Kuwait war 'Desert Storm', in échange for Lebanon, and hence Syria was regarded as the harsh, official sauve-garde of the Lebanon.

Today we see again, with the latest dealings between the US, Europe, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq (bargain problem) and the poor little Lebanon.
When Robert Fisk described the Lebanese problem it gets too obvious, Lebanon is a card on the table among foreign powers. And we, we blindly fall for their claim. We really believe we are against each other for the reason of What is it do we see of Lebanon?
Not religiously, but common everyday socially. "This" is what we
are at first contact. I get up, go to work, or school, then curse the government and get involved in a life I would carry on so much better if only those we employ, called governments, just do their jobs and I did mine around other Lebanese that pass through the same thing. (sometimes its not easy when there is a nation protest and seldom chaos) The impact of government on everyday life. And I love Lebanon. Sadly this word has lost it's original meaning due to repetition. But frankly, I love life.

My international Inclination:
=======================
The US, I don’t trust. But I happen to be lucky, that the US is the foe of Iran, and I am not in favor of Hizbullah attitudes.
Europe, I’m fine with. I trust France.
As for Saudi Arabia has it’s own minute ambitions that are, I feel, not so bad for the future of Lebanon.
Iran, it may… I am not certain, does not have any bad intentions towards Lebanon. Hopefully, unless it feels it must make another Iraq out of Lebanon.

My idea of Lebanon
==================
Speaking of which, I disagree with the culture of killing and dying in the name of patriotism, which Hizbullah tends to carry. Frankly, patriotism is an abused word.

I held during all the times of the soap opera Lebanese news, this lately finding of bombs reminds me of the ugly times in Lebanon. The one that affects no one at the end of the day, except the lives of those in current everyday lifestyles except in civil war.

Which takes me back to the Bombs... I don't want to hear about bombs. I just want to live a normal, everyday life, with a government trying to help social financial life through strong a economy, based on tourism, education, and a respectable name for itself. Not in the face of others, but in the face itself, and be reputationally labeled a place of coexistence and fanatism worldwide. A country so diverse as ours is fighting for reasons that are beyond religion (as you have from all sects on both sides) and straight to ideologies.
My idea of Lebanon as more liberal and self-expressing. We're already good at it (and have done well for ourself before the crisis of the ‘Hizbullah ignited Israeli war’ - Lebanon was on the rise, and lets not forget that, because that’s our power. A country that can stand well and quickly regain itself. Lets not fight over stupid reasons, by the end of the day the leaders will decide, not us. So these bombs... I don't want to hear about them. We're not going to be another problem for the US to handle when the Middle East conversations will be held.

Lebanon will not be another card to trade. If we stand together, all sects, in the face of a bumpy ride, and promise not to fight, Iran will not try to create a wild card out of Lebanon to prove to the US to back off a disturbing other-chaotic country like Iraq.

Lebanese Media
==============
As for the inner games of Lebanon, our daily life surrounds around evening night news, that is getting annoying, as we all want, from both sides to relax.
I’ll start off with, Future, ok, we all know.
Al-Manar, we all Know
LBC, obviously fond of March14 but does not abandon Aoun.
NBN, Aounist but is ok with Hezbollah. (shame on the reporting of the tires on fire, what a dark day).
Where the hell is OTV? Anyways… it’ll be another… We All know!
It all goes down to how Iran and the US will play with Iraq and Lebanon. We’re finally, just another country to bargain with. It happened in 1990; why not again?

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

From what I read in Israeli media:
(a) N'jad's visit ended with him taking the 24:00 hour flight home; not even spending one night in the kingdom? is that an insult to the king?
(b) The coming Arab summit will focus on an improved formula to the 2002 Arab-Israeli peace initiative.
Now, if the 10-19-1 unity government is adopted, there will never be a peace deal between Israel and Lebanon. Think about it.!
.

[JoseyWales]

---"Lebanese file": To others it's a "file", to us it's our country. Why are we letting others handle the "file"?

---I smell another Cairo 69, or Taef 89. You know the old: let's avoid friction now for a civil war next year.

---Partition/federalism needs to be put on the table (in a smart way and initially as a threat only). Many think the idea totally politically incorrect, that is no more sufficient to dismiss it. The Hezbo supporter needs to understand he will be totally at Assad/Nasrallah mercy.

And shits Lahoud/Berri need to be scared that in Hezboland they will be nobodies and in the other section they'll be spat upon.

Etc

---From a constitutional perspective, no one has YET attacked the parliament. I am still not sure why M14 cannot call a meeting NOW to discuss the tribunal.

Furthermore M14 should RIGHT NOW (you hear Milquetoast?) campaign to defend the constitutionality/legitimacy of the current MPs, BEFORE Hezbo/Aoun start besmirching them to deligitimate their vote for the new president.

[ghassan karam]

Elias Harfouch is reporting in AlHayat that HA is ibusy smuggling weapons to the south of Lebanon, rebuilding its damaged infrastructure, cooperating with the Lebanese army in carrying all these illegal activities and preventing the UNIFIL from carrying inspections.
This is just a sampling of what Mr. Harfouch is reporting:"one of the UNIFIL officers [is reported]as saying that there are continuous attempts of arms smuggling to the area, and that Hezbollah fighters are constructing a new array of fortifications and expanding facilities that existed before last summer's war."
Two questions:
Does the UNIFIL feel obliged to uphold the sanctity of the UNSC resolution? And what about the real role of the Lebanese army, if there is any truth to these reports then Suleiman must be sacked.

Should we expect the so called cabinet to ever perform its duty? Of course not, they dare not oppose Tehran and Damascus and Saudi has ordered them not to rock the boat. Need I say more about our blessings?

[Jeha]

Ghassan;

There is no Lebanese army; whatever units have not been "infiltrated" by Hezb can only sit helplessly by. Do not forget that Sleiman and most higher ups were named under Syrian rule.

Any "deal" will only be "temporary" solution, "un cautere sur une jambe de bois", as long as Hezb persists is serving as a proxy for Syria, and as long as M14 continues to be more merchants than statesmen.

[BadVilbel]

The short of it:

The is no country. No Lebanon.

I'm glad I've long chosen to move on with my life...

[BadVilbel]

I agree with Josey Wales' comments above:

Partition should no longer be an untouchable taboo subject. It has been clear to some of us, for some time now, that the various groups that make up the Lebanese population and its leaders do not understand the concept of a sovereign nation. Let them partition. Let's see how that turns out.

[Solomon2]

Do you not understand? Behind all the smoke and mirrors, Hezbollah is dying! Why work now to save it? If you grant Hezbollah the permanent political stature and the untouchable military compounds it seeks it may retreat for a time but will surely come back to bite you one day.

[ghassan karam]

Solomon2,
You are as wise as your namesake!!!.Granting HA , especially its military wing any sort of legitimacy is suicide for the civil and democratic project. Unfortunately in Lebanon we insist on demonstrating the truth of Churchill quip that we learn from history that we never learn from history. At times a band aid is the worse possible thing to apply when the malady is deep and a radical surgery is required. It is true that the application of skin-deep and superficial cures will make one feel better for a while but the patient always winds up in paying for the mistreatment, often with his/her life.

[Solomon2]

Oh, you Lebanese learn all right; at least I've never met anyone from Lebanon who I considered stupid. But I can't shake the feeling that the drive to save Hezbollah is happening because Lebanon's current leaders very much wish to preserve their place in Lebanon's pecking order: "We just made this deal with Hezbollah, if you threaten me politically it will all fall apart!"

In other words, they're out to betray their constituents for personal gain. Not a good sign for Lebanese democracy. Just as when Western forces intervened in the early 80s, they hope to ride the tiger to glory and profit and use the new UNIFIL to shield them from any ill-effects.

If that happens, it won't be long before the SC figures it out and leaves - assuming Hezbollah and its allies doesn't bomb UNIFIL to bits first.

Where is a mass demonstration when you actually need one?

[fubar]

Well, you could hear a pin drop as you all hold your breath waiting to see what comes of the Islamic Republic’s meeting with the House of Saud.

Let’s see, Shorty left the Kingdom abruptly but then Shorty is not known for observing protocol.

The Kingdom says Shorty signed on to the Saudi sponsored Arab-Israeli misnamed “peace proposal.” But Shorty’s people say not so fast, Shorty does not accept the Saudi sponsored Arab-Israeli “peace proposal.” Hmmm, are they speaking different languages. Well, why yes, they are. Shorty doesn’t speak Arabic and the King doesn’t speak Farsi, everything goes through a translator. Can we chalk this up to translator error? Probably not.

Seems one thing the Republic and the Kingdom really agree that they agreed on is the need to protect Muslim unity, you know, the ummah. But what is the ummah and whose ummah are they talking about? The House of Saud means the unity of the Arab states which Iran is meddling in. What does Iran mean? Very interesting question.

Clearly, the Bahai are not part of that unity, especially not in the Islamic Republic.
Tehran, 5 March (AKI) - Iran's education ministry has ordered the expulsion from university of 70 students of the Bahai religion who have refused to convert to Islam. The ministry has also prevented 191 Bahai followers from sitting university entrance exams, Bahai activists have told the United Nations. The Iranian constitution does not recognise the Bahai as having the status of a minority religion - such as Jews and Chrstians - and according to the law, those that profess the faith and are members of the Bahai community can face the death penalty.
Bahais in Iran who do not renounce their faith are denied access to university and jobs in any public professions.

The House of Saud also says that Iran and Saudi Arabia agree on the Hariri Tribunal, but gives absolutely no details as to what that means - a criminal tribunal, not a political one. There is "total understanding" between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the tribunal.

Meanwhile, as soon as Shorty gets back to the Republic the internal war for control between Rafsanjani and Shorty starts heating up again. Guess it would have been bad form to make an overt move while Shorty was in the Kingdom. But, he’s back, so game on.

And, Iranian TV and press is all discomfitted by the question of when the US is going to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities. Tensions are running mighty high inside the Islamic Republic. But not to worry, some idiot fears, not loss of life from such a strike, but loss of Persian antiquities. That’s right, the US must now worry about Persian antiquities. Nevermind that the Islamic Republic considers everything before Mo to be the age of darkness, not part of the glorious Republic, and could give a shit as evidenced by the fact that they are full steam ahead building the Sivand dam which will flood an entire region filled with Persian antiquities. European sensibilities being projected onto a non-European world once again. Oh, please, someone get a clue!

“Over its life span, the Islamic Republic zealots have tried many times to cleanse the pre-Islamic Persian heritage in the name of Islam. First, they declared war against the Persian New Year or 'Nowruz', and then they attacked other Persian traditions and customs. At the beginning of the revolution, Islamic zealots rushed to the site of the Persepolis, the magnificent palace of the Achaemenid kings. Fortunately, the total bulldozing of the relics of the Palace was averted by Iranian patriots who wished to preserve their heritage.” And on and on. – American Thinker
http://www.americanthinker.com/2005/09/cultural_genocide_in_the_name.html

As a side note, there is that whole missing Pasdaran General problem. Seems that he was able to disappear his whole family as well as himself, separately. Talk about teleporting. That is some trick and the Islamic Republic is not happy about it.

Back to Lebanon, now we hear that, "There is a deadline set for end of this week to announce a solution at the insistence of Saudi King Abdullah, heavy insistence," Arafat Hijjazi, a close adviser to Berri, told The Daily Star.

Nas’ gang has been camping out in downtown Beirut for three months and all of a sudden there is a deadline to end it and come to a solution imposed by the House of Saud. What’s up with that?

So Lebanon has a choice to make. Neither the US nor the Saudi’s will abandon M14 if there is no deal so now is the time we see how much spine M14 has.

While I am personally not betting on a deal which we all know is just kicking the ball down the field for a while, just in case, I want to be the first to say it. It’s all the fault of the US. If the US had done whatever better, faster, smarter, Lebanon would not have had to sell itself out. Yeah, whatever.

The betting pool is now open. Will there be a deal or not within this week? Or within the next week? And part two, how long will any deal made last (in weeks/52 weeks in a year), that is how long before Nas stabs M14 in the back? I will cover all the action, but keep it friendly.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

fubar,

"...As a side note, there is that whole missing Pasdaran General problem. Seems that he was able to disappear his whole family as well as himself, separately."

His family too? interesting.! What is the source?
.

[Jeha]

Fubar,

I like Shorty; he makes the system look "real", without the veneer of hypocrisy that hide its true nature. And maybe push more Pasdaran Generals in spontaneous teleportation.

And in Lebanon, such intransigeance give no choice to M14 but to grow a spine, and saves us the trouble of another Cairo agreement. Whichever side, they're all servants, and in this context, Lebanon can make no decision.

I've been hearing increasing comments that "we were better off during the war". So we can only hope that the interests of their masters goes against deals that kick the ball down the road...

[Charlie]

Jeha,

Which war they are making reference to?

[Charlie]

Fubar,

Put me down for no deal, are you giving any odds, and other prop bets you got up on the board??...:-)

[fubar]

Amir,

You first, man, nothing comes for free...

How many plants do you have under cultivation and how tall are they? = )

/I imagine you found it somewhere yourself by now. Let me know if not.

Charlie,

Are you high? You want odds from me? Didn't I already tell you that I am arithmetically challenged. I just don't have that kind of time. Not to mention the fact that I am not going to waste my time trying to make odds so that you can use your wing tipped math skills and financial acumen to rape me. = )

[Charlie]

Darn it Fubar and here I thought we got room for some easy money...on to Vegas then..crap...seven out new shooter....:-)

What do you make of the Lebanese government attempting to secure some serious arms for the army? Personally, I don't think the present army command has enough of a political will to stand up to HA and the rest of the Syrian stooges for it to be trusted with any heavy equipment.

[fubar]

The boys and I are still chuckling over this one:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Deputy Premier and Defense Minister Elias Murr Tuesday that the US supports the Lebanese Army "unconditionally," after the two officials met in Washington in a visit aimed at shoring up support for the army.

Yep, unconditionally, whatever you want, just make up the list of gear you think you can handle and fill out the forms in triplicate. We'll review and get back to you.

He said the US expressed support for the army and would be sending equipment, "without any conditions."

You boys can be cocked and locked in no time. NOT!

"We confirmed that the Lebanese Army is capable of monitoring its borders and it is a united force without any divisions," said Murr, adding: "as long as the Lebanese Army exists, there will be no civil war in Lebanon."

Well, if the LAF is a united force without any divisions, I am Lebanese.

New bet on the board, how long will the LAF exist? (Let's do weeks.)

[Charlie]

It seems like Murr has been watching too many press briefings by real commanders and military leaders on T.V. and he has been dying to try some of these sound bites...:-)

[fubar]

LOL, Charlie, yeah, makes you wonder who he thinks he is talking to.

What the LAF needs is discipline and dedication to duty, esprit de corps over sectarian loyalty. Everything else just flows naturally. It's not the equipment they get, its their ability to perform that matters. I want to see the LAF crawling up Hezbollah's @ss in the south, with and without UNIFIL. Just get it done. When that happens, hell, they can have anything they want, within reason.

It's not the weapon that make the man lethal, it's the man that makes the weapon lethal.

Or the woman...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVz6d24Q52c&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Evitalperspective%2Ecom%2F

Given a choice between the LAF or the IDF, I know who I want covering my back.

[Charlie]

Fubar,
I agree, the LAF command has to make a strong commitment to the state, as of now they continue to play the middle, not good enough to be trusted with advanced weapons. Frankly speaking they can do a lot without the need to any heavy weapons.

Now as far as these IDF soldiers, they can jump into my foxhole and cover my back anytime…-)

[fubar]

My personal favorite is the sniper in the gillie suit. That is a soldier with total muscle control and the ability to maintain complete silence when necessary. = )

As for the LAF, they are screwed until they decide for themselves that there is only one government and one Lebanon and that is who they serve.

Truth be told, I feel a little bad for those boys. They are stuck in the middle of a bad situation. But the only choice they can make that will continue their own existence is to stand united behind the elected government and to oppose the insurrection. Otherwise, they will find themselves fighting each other in a guerilla war.

[ali bm]

what, fubar and charlie want the IDF soldiers covering their backs? the same IDF whose 30,000 troops camped out on our borders for 33 days but weren't able tor each the Litani river because of the reisstence of less than 3,000? right choice to make guys...and anyway for those advocating federalism, tell me what would you do with, for exampe the christians and sunnis living among a much larger shií population in the south? or the christians and sunnis living with the the shiis in biqaa? or the allawites living in the north? or the shiis in southern district in beirut? or christians living in walid junblatt's feifdom in mnt lebanon? or shiis living in saida? get real guys...

[Jeha]

Ali,

Never underestimate an opponent. Yes, "the same IDF" who "weren't able to reach the Litani" will be able to reach it and exceed it next time. The change in leadership, far from being a sign of weakness, is a sign of strength; it is only in the Arab world that losers can claim a "divine" rights to destroy their country a "victory" at a time. "

"...and anyway for those advocating federalism", I am not sure how you link the 2 topics... However, please note that we all lost far too much, financially, when they decided to start the war in the summer. People follow their interests; in the same manner as some may think that Shater Hassan is the second coming, other now feel that they were better off during the war. We were all morons, but at least, each moron had his militia, with a measure of local control, as was sheilded from the other moron's "victories".

You are right in fearing the consequences of this "federalism", but we are already in it; with a single militia forcing war, and now economic ruin against us. An increasing number of people are now convinced that war and partition is a better option.

In practice, however, you are right to fear what will happen; it will be nothing short of genocide, with all of us losing at the end. Call it the "mountain" war, on steroids.

That's what "divine victories" will get us. Those of us who think that God is speaking to them better ask for written confirmation before starting off of those adventures, and draggind others with them. Or take Maalox; those ramblings could have been just gas.

[ali bm]

jeha, no where in my post did i say that hezbollah won whether divinely or not, but you seem to have a serious problem in not distinguishing between the victim and the aggressor. let me state once and for all that i believe that israel destroyed lebanon in the summer war and not shatter hassan or whatever you guys call him. You guys are euating betwene the victim and the aggressor by blmaing hez for the destruction of lebanon. by you logic, the resistance movmeents during world war II are responsilbe for the destruction of their countries and not the nazis.

[Charlie]

Hey Ali bm,

Ali Bm,

Did you even see the youtube video Fubar and I were chatting about ?
If you did you would have understood the punch line. That is okay with a tally like this one:

http://www.10452lccc.com/hizbollah/Who.won2.8.06.htm

I understand why you have no sense of humor. Now hurry back to your Hezb re-educational camp before the bright light of reality scare your eyes

[Charlie]

"before the bright light of reality scare your eyes"

oops meant scar not scare..

[Jeha]

Ali,

Get your facts straight.

By my logic, France was responsible for its defeat and destruction by Germany, partly because of its irresponsible defeatism and lack of preparation before the war. Mostly, however, because it still had to recover the cost of victory from the WW1, which took place on its soil, its most productive coal fields, and some of its industry. It compounded this misguided policies vis-a-vis a defeated Germany. The resistance came after, but the root causes are different.

In my case, I consider that Lebanon is the only victim here, and the agressors are all those ex-warlords who still want a piece of the pie, the great Nasrallah foremost among them. Foreigners are only profiting from our own stupidity. Since "whatever you guys call him" knew that Israel was so evil, why has he undermined the re-establishment of the Lebanese government's authority, the drawing of borders with Syria, and why, O why, did he provoke them in the first place? Stupidity is never an excuse.

No one can justify what Israel did, but no one can make me ever accept Shater Hassan's unilaterally placing my country under the authority of some Iranian barbudos.

[fubar]

Umm Kais, ma'am, can AK come out and play for few minutes?

[fubar]

AK,

You are apparently not coming online tonight. I'll try tomorrow if I still have the question by then.

[Umm Kais]

Sorry guys--Kais has kept us extra busy lately. But no worries, I will get AK to come out and play! I don't know if he wants to play with Lebanese politics anymore though...they're no fun :(

[raz]

Jeha,

>> O why, did he provoke them in the first place? Stupidity is never an excuse.

Stop blaming Hizbullah for "destroying" Lebanon.

How conveniant it is to forget what does not please us. A few years ago, Hizbullah expelled the Israeli occupier from the south. Heroes, they were cosidered. The Hizbullah HQ ordered its combatants to show mercy when capturing and going beyond the villages harbouring traitors and colloborators, and handed them to the govt. instead of eliminating them like rats.

Hizbullah has spent blood, money, dignity and honor into saving Lebanon. How quick are we to forget all they've done for Lebanon.

A poke on the back does not justify murder, Jeha.

In any case, the plans to go to war were prepared months in advance by the White House and Tel Aviv. Seymour Hersh was the first to expose the story. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Hersh)

You can view him talking about it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5eBrfrWoTk

Also, recently, Olmert testified in the Winograd Commission that plans to go to war were prepared months in advance. That pretty much sums it up.

[Liron]

A poke on the back Raz?
So you call shooting missles into Israeli towns and attacking, killing 9 and kidnapping 2 Israeli soldiers a poke on the back?
Would you poke someone with the military might such as Israel in the back?
give me a break....
And in regards to the Winograd commission, what Olmert testified to was that plans are always made in case "shit happens" especially when Hizbollah is involved and you know something is going to go down.
And in any case, his claims are for the sole purpose of the 'ole "ass cover" trick.

[raz]

Liron,

The 9 killed walked into mines placed on Lebanese territory. Their fault.

Israel has shown through history that it will only give back prisoners it holds when she is getting Israelis in return. And that is all that is needed to justify the "kidnapping", which is legal, considering Lebanon and Israel are still officially at war.

Hizbullah had been saying for years that it would be taking Israeli prisoners, to be exchanged for Lebanese POWs. Nothing new here. Israel could of prevented this, had they wished to. But they didn't. They wanted Hizbullah to make the first move. And they did. Legally, morally, and patriotically. The Lebanese govt. may not care about its citizens being in the enemy’s jails, but I sure am glad Hizbullah and the southern population did not forget their jailed brothers.

>> Would you poke someone with the military might such as Israel in the back?
Hizbullah has the capacity and the necessary tools to confront Israel, and has proven so, at least, for a relatively short period of time. In this regard, Israel failed most (if not all) its military objectives against Hizbollah. So, to answer your question, Hizbullah can play fairly good against "Israel's military might".

So good that Israel resorted to attacking civilian infrastructure in order to create internal hate against Hizbullah. They bombed pharmaceutical factories, grain silos and water processing plants. It purposely targeted and bombed countless factories, including Lebanon’s largest milk factory.
When you resort to taking such targets and forget about your initial war goals, you've admited defeat.

[BadVilbel]

I'm sure my buddy Ghassan Karam is gonna love this latest!

According to today's Naharnet, Saniora wants the Saudis to name the 11th minister as part of the so-called "settlement" to the ongoing crisis. A settlement, which is ironically being hatched between Tehran and Riyadh and has no Lebanese input whatsoever.

So I guess it's now officially acceptable for foreign officials to name our ministers. Fantastic. I guess the Syrians had it right all along, naming our PMs and our Presidents for the past 20+ years.

Might as well do away with the "pretend" nation that we have and declare King Abdullah the ruler of Lebanon. He'd just be the new "governor" of this arab province (or whatever the fuck it wants to call itself) in a long list of governors going back to the Ottoman days of the Pashas, and through the not-so-distant past of such rulers as Hafez Assad and Yasser Arafat.

[Jeha]

raz,

Not to shy away from an fight, but I do not like circular arguments, as in "explaining the war because the war was about to happen anyway"...

Do not assume I was too happing at the "Liberation"; since it only came at the expense of the "liberation" of the rest of the country by Syria. The same logic applies in 1982, when Bashir Gemayel "liberated" Lebanon from the PLO by relying only on Christian support and the invasion from a foreign force. In 2000, Hezb "liberated" the south by excluding all other sects from the fight and allowing Syria to deepend its entrenchment in Lebanon.

Indeed, "How convenient it is to forget what does not please us"; if, as you describe them, Israelis are muderous fanatics, the fact remains that a "poke in the back", while it does not justify what they did to us, was no less a stupid move.

The fact also remains that, in normal countries, stupid people are usually ousted, especially those who claim "divine" inspiration. The fact also remains that, as far as I know, such "divine" inspiration is the exclusive province of prophets...

[ghassan karam]

BadVilbel,
How ironic that those that pretend that they are for independence are willing to sell the country in order to stay in power. What qualifies a Saudi king, a leader of the most rigid and backward theocracy in the world to decide what is good for the Lebanese? Is it his money or is it that he is a Sunni? Is there any decency left among any of the political class in Lebanon and if the answer is in the negative then why in the hell do we follow them? BadVilbel, I wish that I did not see your post:-) since I have not learned yet to accept Lebanon for what it is, a tribal land owned by a few feudal lords who are blessed with obedient and non questioning followers. I wish that there was a mechanism that would take away from a nation its right to vote at the UN unless it can demonsatrate that it is a sovereign entity. Lebanon does not desreve that privilege.