Man Bites Dog

With the Arab Summit over, one thing was confirmed; the Saudi leadership of the Arab world. This implies that, as typical of Saudi decisions, the real policy implication on issues such as Lebanon remains harder to ascertain.

Syria was able to take heart in Bashar’s apparently warm reception by King Abdullah. Lebanon was disgraced when its two delegations made a public display of its divisions, and when Emile Lahoud was not granted an audience by the King, who preferred to receive Prime Minister Siniora (at least our football team is still united). This establishes a dangerous precedent; while few Lebanese nationalists have any love lost for Quislings such as Lahoud, the fact is that Lebanon’s head of state was formally “trumped” by the Prime Minister, under the blessing of a foreign power. This will come back to haunt us in the future; have we evaded one master to fall under the clutches of another?

However, the immediate issue remains Syria’s role in Lebanon, and this is where the news offers both pessimism and optimism. A good sign is the Saudi King apparent insistence that Syria stays out of Lebanese affairs and its continuing support for the “International Tribunal”… Yet this is where the pessimists note two salient facts; the often reported wording increasingly discusses a “Tribunal with International Aspects” (“محكمة ذات طابع دولي”) rather than an “International Tribunal” (“محكمة دولية”). Has a compromise been offered to Bashar?

In case a compromise was made, it may have been designed to give him some guarantees of immunity, but it ignores the fact that his regime is beyond compromise. The current Syrian regime is addicted to Lebanon and its valuable rents, and would love nothing more than to be back in charge. A further risk is that Saudi attempts at calming passions may be interpreted as weakness, and Bashar may be driven to commit some rash actions.

Indeed, the Syrian press and Syrian-inspired apologists are starting to spew Stalinist-style comments, lauding the Saudis for reaffirming respect for the old sacred cows of “Arab Unity and respect for the Arab nation”. Such empty words usually precede some rash action.

The Maronite Patriarch appears to understand this danger. His surprising interview in which he lashes at Lahoud and Aoun, he may be attempting some badly needed shock therapy.

Time will tell whether this is too late; treatment delayed may well be worse than treatment denied… You know things are bad when reasonable people start looking to Michel Aoun to “break Lebanon's debilitating impasse”…

Jeha on March 29^th, 2007

Comments

[Kalb/Kalbeh]

"This will come back to haunt us in the future; have we evaded one master to fall under the clutches of another?"

Sahh il-num. I certainly hope it does haunt you. I would hate to see fellow compatriots cheer for yet another master to get rid of the current one (i.e. Saudi). Seriously, it starts getting ridiculous after the 27th time.

[JoseyWales]

I disagree with Qaddafi on everything, but boycotting the Arab League is always a great idea.

one thing was confirmed; the Saudi leadership of the Arab world. Just when you thought the region could not get any worse....

[ghassan karam]

Kalb/Kalbeh,
I hope that your position implies rejecting ALL outside masters and is not used, as many have argued, to justify Syrian/Iranian hegemony.
Jeha,
I am hoping that the reference to a "Tribunal with international aspects" is a purely cosmetic "compromise" done in the same spirit as the changed three words in the Summits statement about Lebanon. After all ,with appologies to Shakespear, a rose smells the same by any other name. No harm is done to emphasize that three of the judges slated to sit on the Tribunal are Lebanese.

[Tarek]

Nice post Jeha.. Although I like your style on your blog, I liked the "regularity" of this entry as guest blogger...

[mhg]

Disappointment in Riyadh: the Camel and the Mouse
“The camel went into labor, and gave birth to a mouse” A very popular Arab saying.
The Arab Summit in Riyadh is over. It was no different from any other Summit of the past twenty some years. What is more, Iraq downgraded it by sending its amiable but ceremonial president instead of the policy-making prime minister. Qadhafi of Libya did not show up, thus robbing it of any possible offbeat path, any diversion from the usual caca de boca.
Looking through the Arab media of various countries, each medium (usually state-owned, state-controlled, state-paid, or state-bullied) claimed that its own leader was pivotal in the success of the summit in achieving nothing. Normally these summits achieve nothing quite effortlessly, but this time they had to work for it.
One solid result was that the Saudi Stock Market Index lost all its gains of the past year on the same day that the Summit adjourned.
Cheers
http://www.infidelus.blogspot.com

[M.]

Nice post Jeha, although the reference to a “Tribunal with international aspects” or “ma7kama that tabe3 duwali” is not new at all. In fact, it has been the case all along: Security Council resolution 1664 refers to a "tribunal of an international character” because this Tribunal, if it’s ever going to be set up through Lebanese institutions, is going to be of “hybrid” nature, formed by judges appointed both by the UN and Lebanon. Of course, if for some reason, it became impossible to adopt the Tribunal through Lebanese institutions and if the Security Council decides to adopt it through Chapter VII, then it will become a strictly international tribunal.

[Carol Herman]

From where I sit; the left-coast of the USA, I see that Iran stole the thunder! How so? By capturing the House of Saud by "surprise."

In other words? What good is Riyadh now? If iran BOOSTED UP THE PRICE OF OIL. (A price gain that helps Iran survive.) And, where's all the headlines? Went to Iran. And, to Tony Blair's rather meek response.

Seems like there's not too much agreement between England, Germany, and America, right now.

Just some "theater water works" which is supposed to threaten Iran, BUT DOESN'T!

The future? Maliki will work with Iran.

Malike WON'T WORK WITH THE SAUDIS!

Condi Rice "works" with the saudis. But it's Bush's very bad bets that are in play. As if the dance Condi did with the french last summer brought you anything much in the South. Okay. A rise in the sale of wine bottles. But no real return to tourism. Or business. Which would have lifted a lot of boats up. Instead? You've got boats out of the water. Where they make no progress.

As to what you read? Just a bunch of lies. But the House of Saud? You think they're gonna be in charge? I think Bush, on the other hand, will go down in history as America's worst president, EVER.

[Mark]

Carol,

You make some interesting points, but your last sentance is a non sequitur. I can see how you could tie your point about Bush's failed presidency to the rest of your comment in another paragragh or two, but you left that part out. How is it exactly that your opinion of Bush's legacy has anything to do with the Arab Summit and Iran's upperhand, among you other points?

Note: I am not debating whether or not Bush's legacy will be positive or negative. I think he will be considered a bad president also, although not the worst. Towards the bottom, nonetheless.

[ghassan karam]

Saad Haririr declared that"We will regain the initiative and we will behave like a majority and we will implement the constitution""اننا سنستعيد المبادرة وسنتصرّف كأغلبية وسنطبق الدستور". Are these fighting words!!! What took so long??? Would Saad and company deliver on the above promise or are we destined for another disappointment ? Only time will tell but I am not holding my breath.

[Jeha]

I stand corrected; my translation should have read "tribunal of an international character". I agree that there is nothing wrong with having a majority of Lebanese judges on the panel; such symbolism would be vital for the future of the country. My concern is that, at this stage of the game, the wording may be interpreted by backtracking, since M14 uses the words "International Tribunal"

It also appears that Siniora is cornering M8 them by pushing the Tribunal edict to the Parliament. Or it could all be a sign that M14 is only running scared; the Syrians appear to have regained some confidence.

Not sure if the mouse is really roaring...

[ghassan karam]

Jeha,
And how many of the twenty something know of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick? :-)
or Peter Seller for that matter? LOL

[Jeha]

Ghassan,

I am afraid ignorance is widespread, and culture rare. A sad phenomena across all generations.

[M.]

Actually, even in a Tribunal that tabe3 duwali the majority of the judges would be foreigners. I wouldn’t worry about the wording, I don’t know if you follow the news in Arabic but this is the expression that is mostly used since the beginning. But anyway, let’s not get lost in the details. As you said, a compromise has been offered to Assad, (through Javier Solana a couple of weeks ago). But it seems that Assad did not grab the carrot since he probably think he can get a better deal if he keeps doing what he does best: export instability to neighboring countries.
The good news is that the UN, France and the US are starting to lose their patience and they are giving signals that they are not ready to wait forever and that if the Tribunal is not adopted by the Lebanese Parliament the Security Council is going to take the proper measures to set it up. Of course we’re still a long way from having a Tribunal under Chapter VII but such threats might work by making it clear to Syria that it only has 2 choices: either a Tribunal of an international character or an exclusively international tribunal. Because until now, Syria has been acting as if the options were: A tribunal of an international character or no tribunal at all.

[hmmm]

Saudi leadership will be welcome. The West needs a central point of contact for the Arab horde. This will make negotiations easier, more financially definable and less likely to be derailed by mindless emotionalism. Now, if the Saudi's would just field a capable military to control the organized crime groups in the area (e.g. HA, PA, etc) the world will truly be a better place.

[ghassan karam]

Those who believe that a free and objective press is a reflection of the values that a society places on freedom, liberty and democratic beliefs nust be very concerned about the place occupied by objectivity and responsibility in Saudi Arabia the newly anointed leader of the Arab league.

The following headline in AlMadina of Saturday March 31, 2007 requires no commentary. "The national physician and its trusted wiseman diagnoses the illness and prescribes the medicine". Stalin would have killed for such favourable coverage !!! But the Stalin was mortal while the Saudi royals are divine.

[Jeha]

Ghassan, Koba the Dread was on a budget. The Saudis have more means at their disposal...

[naja]

I'm in Saudi right now, on a business visit. Frankly, if we had to choose some kind of leadership in the Arab world, this one - I can't believe I'm saying this! - wouldn't be a bad choice.

Hear me out: what has happened in Saudi in the past couple of years is just about short of a revolution. The leadership, far from being the wahhabi we all fear, is actively liberalising the kingdom: here in the capital, the mutawa'a (the wonderfully named "committee for the propagation of virtue and prevention of vice") have had their budget slashed and are now hardly seen - and trust me they used to strike fear in everyone's heart. Meanwhile, the dollars that used to disappear in corrupt and royal pockets are being used for mega projects in the very centres of fundamentalism, creating jobs at an unprecedented scale.

In addition, the pace of digital growth is running at an unbelievable rate (internet connections up 1300 percent on the past 5 years) and you should just see what is going on in the Saudi blogs. It may all look like small change for any other country but here this is almost Che Guevara stuff. In fact, Abdallah seems to have heeded the advice that liberals in the UK were trying to give their government: be tough on terrorism and on the causes of terrorism. And get people busy.

I certainly wouldn't stand and proclaim Saudi to be some utopia - or even a place I would like to live in - it's still crap and backwards. But one has to turn down the cynicism knob and take a much broader view. For all their ills, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are run by enlightened visionaries when compared to the rest of the Arab world. Go figure.

[ghassan karam]

Naja,
I can only assume that you have not read what passes for a constitution in Saudi Arabia. It is nothing short of a document to maintain the total, unconditional, unquestioned authoritarian control of every facet of the Kingdom. The King appoints and the King dispenses. It is very dangerous to accept an outcome on the grounds that it is better than what preceeded it but it is light years away from what is considered acceptable.Cultural relativism is a tool to subjugate and exploit by denying people their "basic rights" and even their humanity. A free press is instrumental for a functioning democracy, take that away and society will surely wither away. Enlightened dictatorship and visionary authoritarian rule fall in the same class as military intelligence and sustainable growth, they are an oxymoron.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

I think Naja is simply stating that there is change happening at a societal level in SA. Those kinds of changes usually take years, even decades, to bare fruit. Abdallah is still somewhat in the early years of his reign. Any positive change (specially compared to where SA used to be) is probably a good one. That's not to say that SA is in any way a Democracy (or even moving towards that).
But I have to say, of the Arab countries (and i know that's setting a low standard) the 2 Abdallahs (Saudi and Jordanian) are probably the ones with their head on their shoulders.

[Bad Vilbel]

And as ironic contrast to my previous post...meantime, back at the ranch...

* Aoun declares the presidential elections will probably be delayed if the opposition doesn't get their way. Gee, this guy claims to know about democracy? Sounds like he's back to 1988. Thuggish threats and all. And the beauty of this story (naharnet): (Please sit down before you read this one)

"I don't think so. And I believe that the presidential elections would not be held on schedule. Does the stealing of Parliamentary seats set the stage for them to steal the presidency?"

"Let them know that the (presidential) elections will only be held in line with an understanding that returns what has been stolen to its owners," Aoun added.

Aoun accuses the March 14 Parliamentary majority of Fraud in the 2005 general elections.

Let me get this straight. Aoun refused to acknowledge the same elections that won him and HA their paliamentary seats, that being the very basis of his "we have a right to be in government" logic. Seriously. A 5-year old could confound these idiots' logic in a court of law, if there ever was one. Only in Lebanon does such Twilight Zone logic operate.

In other news:

* Hizbullah threatens MPs if parliament convenes outside of the parliament building: Well, again, gee, I guess someone appointed Hizbullah the guardian of constitutional matters and the ultimate authority in preserving the minutia of where a parliament meets. Do these guys have ANY concept whatsoever of the meanings of the words "law" and "constitution"? I think not.

[Hmmm]

I think that Saudi Arabia ought to petition to host the United Nations. The UN is struggling for cash, the American people are headed for one of their isolationist phases with the next administration, and most of the UN discussion focuses on events within a 1000 mile diameter of Mecca. Saudi Arabia is a logical choice for the council.

[ghassan karam]

Bad V,
You and I have often shared similar views and beliefs and this is not any different. I do understand what Naja was trying to say but I still insist that her relatively favourable opinion of SA is extremely dangerous . It is as if one sanctions slavery under enlightened conditions. I cannot do that. Slavery is wrong under all sorts of conditions because it is morally abhorrent. The same holds for a divine monarchy. The Saudi regime and all the other rulers of the Gulf states including Oman are rotten to the core irrespective of how "enlightened" the current rulers might be. These regimes are just as much beyond redemption as those of Syria, Egypt, Libya ...

[naja]

erm, Ghassan, don't cast doubts as to my sexuality! Last time I checked, I was a man :)

But most importantly, for god's sake don't look at me as a defender of Saudi Arabia! Hell, Iran has more democratic values than KSA, and that tells you something. No, it's a matter of degrees. In the kingdom of the blind and all that.

But "beyond redemption" is just an escapist attitude. You have to work with what you got, unless you apply the redneck politics of "nuke 'em, fuse the sands into glass and go in with Windex". Or, simply, for the intelligent amongst them, emigrate.

As we sit in our intellectual ivory towers, we forget realities on the ground, regardless of who's fault it is: right now, and until a decent educational, at least relatively liberal drive is launched and bears fruit, any democratic elections would get you the worst nightmarish governments - in Saudi, Pakistan etc. Let me put it in (a slightly surreal) perspective: Saudi's main English language rag, Arab News, in an article about "Women in Islamic Societies", devoted a whole paragraph about how the Prophet's wives... went to the toilet. I swear. In a society like that, I'd rather go for a vaguely enlightened dictator, any time, and my leftwing credientials can go hang.

[Roman Kalik]

Naja, while I'm no great fan of KSA in particular, I agree with you in general. Societies cannot change at the drop of a hat, and gradual change should be applauded. Perhaps *our* standards are much higher, but if we simply thrust them at people who don't understand them, we will end up going one step forwards and two steps back.
I often wonder how the middle-east would have looked had Jordan been the one to rise in prominense rather than nationalist Egypt...