Syria and Hizbullah to intensify offensive

The Hizbullah supporter that was shot dead on Sunday may or may not have been shot by the Sunni residents of Qasqas. The area is infested with pro-Assad Ahbash Islamists, and I would not put it past one of them or some Syrian intelligence operative to have pulled the trigger—similar to what happened during the airport road riots when a young man was shot in the back by a mysterious bullet to turn people against the pro-government Internal Security Forces (ISF). In fact, and following the clashes, security forces arrested three Syrians who were throwing rocks from the roof of a building overlooking the area.

Some reports suggest that groups of Hizbullah and Amal members stormed the Sunni area (Naharnet), intensifying the clashes with the Sunni residents that erupted following the passing and subsequent stoning of a Hizbullah convoy on its way to the southern suburb. Many stores and businesses were torched during the ensuing riots.

Regardless of what really transpired, the above should be grounds enough to declare a state of emergency in the country. The following provides more reasons. I urge you to take it with a grain of salt since I have no way of corroborating it, though I will interject to try to relate some of the information to recent events. For the sake of Lebanon, this is something we need to all take seriously because our country is at stake.

According to al-Seyassah, weapons are pouring into the country through the Syrian border, accompanied by terrorist groups run by Syrian intelligence. Fouad Siniora has been advised by world capitals to shut down the border with Syria to prevent a "catastrophe".

Thousands of Syrian reservists and hundreds of intelligence agents who were naturalized during the Syrian era have entered the country and re-organized themselves. According to a diplomat from the Gulf quoted by the Kuwaiti paper, weapons are being "distributed like candy" and Syrian intelligence has returned to posts it had evacuated in 2005.

Tens of trucks reportedly delivered explosives to Hizbullah warehouses in the southern suburb. Parking lots in Beirut, Tripoli, Sidon and Baalbeck have been transformed into workshops to booby-trap cars, in an apparent prepapring for a full scale civil war in the country. (If this is true, the Saudi King's warning that he will not let Lebanon turn into another Iraq suddenly makes sense). Al-Seyassah claimed that Hizbullah moved some of their rockets to Beirut for possible use against security forces protecting the Grand Serail.

In another report, al-Seyassah detailed the sending of thousands of Syrians and Palestinians into Lebanon by the Assad regime (which, incidentally, has openly declared its support for the efforts to topple the government) to incite the demonstrators and enflame conflicts. The Assad regime also instructed its Lebanese mouthpieces to intensify verbal attacks against the Sunni mufti, Maronite patriarch, and the government. It also ordered Hizbullah to keep its blockade of the Serail.

You will recall the Syrian who was arrested yesterday, the three today, and Hizbullah's refusal to end their blockade. And as if on cue, Suleiman Franjieh, Wiam Wahab and Talal Arslan launched despicable attacks on the government and March 14 today. The strange report about Fatah Islam I blogged about a few days ago about also makes great sense in light of the above information. You will also recall how Syrian agents were planning to accompany Hizbullah during its planned storming of the Serail on Friday, which was discovered and foiled after the intervention of the Saudi King.

According to al-Seyassah in its December 3 issue, Hizbullah will next move to occupy the Beirut airport by erecting tents on the runways to further isolate the government and stop the visits by European and Arab ministers showing their support. (Notice how Aoun yesterday lashed out at Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the US, France and all countries for supporting Siniora. Also, how can we forget the time Aoun told Siniora that there he will not have time to pack his bags when his day to resign comes, or when the general threatened to burn down the Serail).

Furthermore, the report claims that Nasrallah has issued an order to Shia officers in the internal security forces to resign their posts and join "the opposition". The Lebanese internal security forces are currently the only forces entrusted with and trusted to protect the Lebanese cabinet. The Lebanese army's loyalties are at best unknown, though it is unclear whether they would support a Hizbullah coup of the scale described by al-Seyassah. Incidentally, in an address at martyrs' square today, Franjieh praised the Lebanese army, claiming it was "on our side".

Like most of you, I hope that the above is not true. But the dots are connecting easily. It does appear, however, that what is being cooked for Lebanon and its government is far more serious and dangerous than many would like to believe.

Comments

[R]

While - as you said - anything from alseyassah is to be taken with a grain of salt (their outrageous claims have only occasionally been right), I agree with the conclusions. There is a convergence of signs from the main internal players (Berri, Aoun ,and mainly Hizballa) and the minor ones (Wahhab, Arslan, Franjieh) and the external players (Syria, Iran) that indicate that there is no intention to de-escalate. Add to that, the "isolated" incidents that are popping up here and there and the arrests of Syrian agents in Lebanon... None of this bodes well.
Hizballa is playing a very dangerous game, and I think they have overplayed their grace-period. I believe that they have gambled with and manipulated the future of my country and will continue to do so.

March 14 on the other hand, despite all my reservations, is by very very far the best of two definite evils. I hope that they know what they are doing, because I sure as hell don't.

[JoseyWales]

Let's hear it from the morons: "but they have a right to demonstrate". At any time, and at any place and if it jeopardizes security and if it kills thousands of jobs and if it's open ended???? That right is not absolute.

[JoseyWales]

One dead in sectarian clashes? Amr Moussa, the secretary of the Arab Fucking League coming to calm things down?? I 've seen this movie before.

The army should ban demos right now and the politicians shoud all go srew themselves somewhere until they come up with an accord.

I am serious. If the army does not start shooting demonstrators after a 10-hour deadline (to go home for EVERYBODY), the civial war is on.

The army should also ASAP make clear than anyone disbobeying orders will be court martialled in 24 hours, so no one gets crummy ideas about the next upcoming amnesty when nothing is left of this wretched country.

[Wake Up Lebanese !]

R,

March 14 get their orders from their masters, these masters do not know what they are doing in Iraq . So ,do you think they will solve your problems in Lebanon ?

[Wake Up Lebanese]

After Lebanon gets divided into two or three sections, only then will Lebanese regret their bad politics.

[fubar]

Oh, now we are supposed to get totally depressed? Go ahead if you must, but Simon says, "Stand strong, do not waiver."

Hmmmm, NBA is arming up. Well, well, well, who didn't know that? The Syrians are stirring up trouble, now there is a surprise. NOT! And the Palestinians, seriously, when are they not up for a fight and a chance to die? After all, they have raised blood sport to a whole new level.

But if you think SJHG has not been arming up too, think again. However, SJHG will neither fire the first shot nor go quietly into the good night. NBA will have to light the fuse on this bad boy.

So batten down the hatches and baricade the women and children in because things are getting dicey. And remember, if NBA strikes the match, in a fight for survival, there are no rules and no such thing as a fair fight. The standing order will be engage all targets of opportunity and Umm Khalil be damned.

[Charlie]

Well If March-14 thought that Nasrallah was going to ride to the sunset with out a fight, then they are delusional. Siniora should tap the UNIFL to help them close that boarder with Syria. It will still be porous, but lets not make it too easy

[Vulcan]

ya msha7arain lesh 3am betfaz3oona haik, lak ya bu kais hade lbeel ya zalameh htarat a3ssabna yel3an matra2atkon hal 7akay
anee felel 3al barazail

[ghassan karam]

At times reality is stranger than fiction. The events in Lebanon coroborate this view now more than ever. Who would have believed that a major proportion of the citizens of a nation state would have conspired against that nation's independence and sovereignty when practically the whole world is working to set them free. Alas, a segment of my compatriots prefers the subjugation by others to democracy at home. That is precisely why many of us have been urging the Lebanese to come to their senses and recognize HA for what it is. HA is an idea that is not based on an allegiance to a nation state and so to expect them to work for the benefit of the nation is nothing short of naieve. To put it crudely it is similar to asking the fox to be in charge of the hen house. It is becoming increasingly clear that this apparent incongruity cannot be tolerated. It is neither logical nor pragmatic. HA must remain outside the cabinet and its militia must be disarmed. There is nothing new in all of the above, nothing that we have not said numerous times over the past 18 months. Unfortunately the Saniora cabinet appears to be willing to let HA back into the government. What are they thinking?

Some principles are inviolable. Independence and democracy are nothing short of the embodiment of all that is sacred , valuable and worth fighting for in this world. The March 14 group, with all its warts, is at least an indigenous group witha strong attachment to the idea of freedom and liberty. They desrve all the support that they can get but the support must be contingent on the fact that they will not practice appeasement again under any set of circumstances. It is one thing to disagree on the means of running a country but it is a completely different thing to act as if the country is not important, actually to work in such a way as to undermine the nation for the sake of the interests of neighbouring countries. In my book this is nothing short of treason. Lahoud, Berri, Frangieh, Arslan must be made to feel very uncomfortable in a country that they have devoted their energies to undermine. Their behaviour cannot be protected under the freedom of thought or expression because their stand is against the national good, against the commonwealth. As for Nasrallah and all other men of the cloth, they need to be depoliticised. But the HA militia has to be disarmed even if such an action might exact a high price. No price is too high for freedom and decency. Freedom is not free, let us always be reminded of this.

[R]

Wake up Lebanese, spare me!

Look, you can say all you want that march 14 take orders from here or there, perhaps they do to some extent. I personally doubt that it is to any large extent, particularly because we have seen them shoot down the Saudi initiative previously, as well as say from the doors of the Elizee and the White House that they believe Hizbulla should be engaged in dialogue, and that this was a matter for the Lebanese...

On the other hand, we have seen Berri and Nasralla get testosterone boosts from Syria and Iran quite frequently, we have seen them obstruct the government on issues like the tribunal (I wonder where those orders came from) and we have previous experience with Arsalan and Franjieh and Wahhab and their likes to know that they are nothing more than... whatever....
Thats not the point. THe point is taht the zo3ran abound on both sides of the trenches, and the sectarian hate that fills the *&)(&*(&) of a country of ours is not lacking. So I believe that Hazballa and allies are playing with fire.

Why ? its simple, they know that March 14 cannot back down. In fact march 14 has pretty much backed down as much as it can. Any more and they are finished. HA knows that and are pushing for that. Are they all aware of the consequences? Do they know that March 14 backing down is a death sentence signed, sealed and executed on all its leadership unless they go into Aoun-like exile... And don't even get me started on that opportunistic twirp.

All I am saying is that both sides are full of people who are more than willing to kill the other. The diference is that the "opposition" is mobilizing. It is using a veil (how ironic!) of democratic means to topple a democratically elected government, to achieve undemocratic ends.
Screw it... I think this country is doomed to repeat its history for ever and ever because any genuine cause that is worth fighting for will always be morphed into a secrtarian conspiracy and you end up with pointless civil wars.
I personally am fed up of hearing people talk out of their &*(&*. You know what, as much as I hate to say it, sha3b... byistehal illi bisirlo...

[Yaman]

I like now how you measure the success of the government by the number of Syrians who have been arrested. This reminds me of the way Israeli press deals with Palestinians: as if arresting more and more actually solves something. How many people were arrested for burning Syrian shops near Sabra, I wonder? Or are they, like the Shia, not entitled to the same rights as the better parts of Lebanese society?

[Bad Vilbel]

Where are the morons who were arguing about this not being a coup?

Anyone still think my calls for martial law were a bit much? I think the security situation on the ground gives the government every right to call for such emergency status.

Wake up, people! This is a coup and an incitment to civil war (1975 all over again).

[fubar]

(JPost) Eyal Zisser, chairman of the African and Middle East history department at Tel Aviv University and an expert on Lebanon and Syria, sees things playing out differently.

"Saniora's goal is to hold on to power, which will lead him to invite Nasrallah into the government," said Zisser. He said both Nasrallah and Saniora realized they had to work together to avoid a major crisis because "no one wants war." Nasrallah understands that if he "bides his time power will fall into his lap," and if he is invited to join the cabinet the size of his electoral base will eventually put him in control, Zisser said.

******

Hmmmm, well that's one opinion. Just what does it take to be considered an expert on Syria and Lebanon? Is there a certification process or do you just call yourself an expert and go with it unless and until someone proves you wrong? Just wondering...

Me, I am a Persia expert. Go ahead, dare ya. = ) And when it comes to Lebanon, I'm thinking more along the lines of the Cuban Missile Crisis, just for the opening acts, mind you. The civil war component is really optional in the over all scheme of things.

BTW, did you hear that the Iranian Parliament voted to move the Presidential elections up which would cut Ahmadinejad's term by 18 months. Opps, could it be that the ever lovable, street sweeper Ahmadinejad is not the most popular guy in Persia. Now the only question is -- has Rafsanjani lost his head, or is he about to?

[Libnaniyah 100%]

I think the country should be divided up. Particularly when its inhabitants spread useless rumors like those above and contribute to escalating the tensions, I see no other way out of the situation. Khalas, we cannot live together. End of story. The advocates of federalism have been right all along.

[Richard Silverstein]

I feel so sad to see yr country & its government held hostage by such anti-democratic forces as Hezbollah, which hopes it can gain in the street what it could not gain at the ballot box.

[Slept]

The Shia should feel Lebanese since they are a minority in the Arab world, like other Lebanese groups. Lebanon in theory would provide a perfect place for them, even if until now it hasn't treated them well. But they don't feel Lebanese, they think they don't have to be a minority, they think they can be in charge. That's Nasrallah's big miscalculation and it depends completely on Assad staying in power. But if there is a Sunni Shia war, Assad is toast and so is Nasrallah.

[Abi Lama]

The most ridiculous and damning accusation by Hizbullah of FATFAT is: "He is a Jew!"
How racist can you get?

[joe]

March 14 missed its chance this summer to confront hizbullah once and for all. With the US looking for a graceful exit from Iraq, and the return of the Kissingerian James Baker to power, I expect the US to strike a deal with Iran & Syria. Part of the price the US will have to pay is to sell out March 14. One of the major lessons the US learned in Iraq is that it doesn't pay to invest blood & treasure in Arab democracy, when the inhabitants aren't prepared to fight for it.

So decide, March 14. If you want a peaceful, prosperous lebanon where you are free to do what makes you happy, now is the time to fight for it. Actually it's almost too late now. Either confront hizbullah/syria or submit to them for another generation.

[Doha]

Another person died from yesterday's clashes.

[C Sullivan]

Do NOT let Hizbollah win, screw Bush and what would make this admin. happy, don't let them for yourselves! Who the hell gave Hizbollah the right to start acting like this anyway? I don't remember the Lebanese people doing it and you probably don't either! Those who say you have to fight for this is right. Why not flat out start saying it. Its time for a counter demonstration by March 14 and every other citizen of your country that does not want a Hizbollah dictatorship! Phrase it like that, I would. Start directly attacking the propaganda they are spewing. If they are for clean government and care aobut the country, then where are the Op-eds or demonstrations asking why they are closing down your connections to anyone but Syria or Iran? Hell yes ministers from foreign countries should keep coming in, I think if Hizbollah wants to really start this, the whole entire back up OF Lebanon's real allies should start showing up.

That is what I wanted to ask anyway. What can thinking Americans (as in non-Bushies) do that would really help you?

[Solomon2]

HA is an idea that is not based on an allegiance to a nation state and so to expect them to work for the benefit of the nation is nothing short of naieve.

They used to say the same thing about Catholics. There is a place for such an "idea" in any democratic society. However, it is as a moral foil to the elected government, not as an armed political movement. When you attempt to dictate morality and government at the same time the free choice of the people disappears, and the temptation to slide into moral corruption becomes irresistible. The end result is extinction from without or collapse and revolt from within.

I suppose if you support Hezbollah, the Siniora government is the guilty party, whereas if you support the government, this appears to be the course Hezbollah wishes to impose. Perhaps the true culprit is Lebanon's confessional system? Yet Hezbollah is so dominated by outside concerns the idea in can participate in meaningful reform seems laughable.

[BadVilbel]

Solomon2,

Good overall analysis.

I think the issue with Lebanon is multi-dimensional. The sectarian system IS to blame for a lot of this. But as you say, the foreign considerations are too. It's not a one-problem-issue here. In fact, its complexity and intricacies is what's prevented it from being solved over the past 50-60 years, although countless have tried.

If there was a way to start off from a clean slate, today, for example, i'd start by abolishing sectarianism completely from the system. Put in a new system, where one man = one vote. Call for new parliamentary elections followed by new presidential elections. And let the people start learning how true majority rule works, without consideration for sects and the such. If this could be done, while operating in a bubble (i.e. no Syrian, Palestinian, Iranian or Israeli interference in any way), I'd like to think the Lebanese people would eventually learn to live within the new system and within a generation, things would balance back into place.
Sadly, the world doesn't work that way. There is no "reboot" button. :)

[Solomon2]

There is no way to start from a "clean slate". Is it really necessary? Instead of eliminating the confessional system, why not check its influence by adding a second, district-based legislative chamber?

[BadVilbel]

I don't think that's enough to change the mentality of the people. And in the end, as long as the mentality remains ingrained in the people, nothing you do is gonna matter.

As long as everyone thinks in terms of "the maronites" or "the shia" or "the sunni", none of this matters. Lebanon will remain a loose conglomerate of tribes.

In order to build a sound state, the FIRST and FOREMOST requirement is respect for the state's institutions. This might be hard for a non-Lebanese to understand, but as of today, there is no such thing in Lebanon. People do not respect the notion of Lebanon-the-state. They do not answer to the state's institutions. They only answer to their tribe/sect's interests.

[Jay]

Bad Vilbel,

Even if Lebanese sectarianism were too deeply ingrained to get rid of it, abolishing confessional election laws and replacing them with proportional representation would still be helpful. At least then all the sects would have parliament seats in proportion to the number of people they represent. This would be an enormous step forward compared to the current half-Christian, half-muslim setup. The current majority should have the courage and foresight to establish a committee to rewrite the constitution and call for a national census, even if it might hurt them a little bit in the next elections.

Respect for state institutions is a must, I agree with you on that. But who will respect a parliament that's based on demographics from 1930s?

[BadVilbel]

You're saying the same thing as me, Jay. I said we have to abolish ALL Sectarianism and go to a one-person, one vote system.

I was replying to Solomon who suggested a second chamber to the existing one. I said I didn't think that would help.

[fubar]

Time for a new post Abu Kais. Solomon, Bad Vilbel, and Jay are babbling. Not to mention that I got fragged and no one even blinked. Lucky for me, kevlar is SOP. But just remember guys, love is a two way street.

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

fubar,

No Sport NEWS tonight ?
.

[BadVilbel]

HEY!

[fubar]

Amir,

Not enough caffiene consumption yet. And besides I think Charlie is on the schedule for color commentary tonight.

Bad Vilbel,

"Hey!" ??? Amir can do better than that even when he is totally stoked. That is just not right. = )

Seriously, though, hope everyone caught Jeha's post today.

[BadVilbel]

Actually, no. Where does Jeha post?

[fubar]

http://jehasnail.blogspot.com/

[charlie]

Fubar,

That all depends how the Monday night game turns out tonight...:-)

[fubar]

Abu Kais,

THANK YOU! Nuff said.

[Solomon2]

NOW who is babbling? :-)

[fubar]

Solomon,

Why thank you for noticing. = ) This thread has run its course. We defer to you to start a new topic. Or we will all wait to see what Charlie comes up with. It is now Panthers 21, Giants 17, with 11 mins. to go in the 4th.

[Bad Vilbel]

PS: Folks. There's some pretty good discussion going on at www.michaeltotten.com (with our own Abu Kais guest blogging). :)

[Abu Kais]

I guess it is time for a new post. It was all work and no blogging today. But tomorrow is another day. good night folks.

[charlie]

Fubar,

Dude...You are really tripping now...You have turned the Eagles into the Giants...what is next you are gonna turn the Cowboys to bunch of Raiders....:-)

By the way did you see that helmet flying...somone is pissed..Keyshawn ain't happy...:-)

[fubar]

lol, I did say Giants, didn't I. I was only half watching and apparently only half thinking. = )

Damn, all in the last 7 minutes, 27 - 24 and the Eagles take it away.

[charlie]

ha ha..That was a classic....:-)
One thing I know for sure you are not from Philly...:-)

[fubar]

Jokes on you, Charlie. Ever heard of Montgomery County, Pa.? Course that only makes my brain fart less excusable. lol. In the early 80's, the Eagles and Flyers ruled the world. Although, in truth, I've always favored the Steelers.

(Daily Star, Dec. 5) BEIRUT: Renewed clashes erupted in Beirut late Monday after the body of an opposition supporter slain a day earlier was carried through the heart of the capital by his comrades.
Witnesses said opposition demonstrators in Downtown Beirut - enraged at the site of one of their own being carried in a coffin through the crowds - ran toward mostly Sunni Tariq al-Jaddidah carrying sticks.
A security source at the scene told The Daily Star that the demonstrators, mostly Shiite members of the Amal Movement to which the late Ahmed Ali Mahmoud, 20, belonged, began wrecking cars and shops in the neighborhood.
Many residents, most of whom support late Premier Rafik Hariri and his son Saad, descended from their homes to fight with the demonstrators.

******
Anyone hear anything about a second death that Doha mentioned earlier above?

(Arab News, Dec. 5)

“King Abdullah emphasized that all Lebanese people should work to unify their rank, strengthen security and stability and give the upper hand to legitimacy, reasoning, wisdom and dialogue in order to overcome the present situation,” the Saudi Press Agency reported. The Saudi ruler warned that the continuation of the present situation would have negative impact on Lebanon’s stability, prosperity and national unity and its ability to take independent political decisions.

“We’ll provide full support for the goodness of Lebanon,” he added.

******

Translation of diplospeak:

SJHG = goodness
NBA = bad, very bad

NBA, quit your horsing around, NOW. Or there will be "negative impact" on your ability to make "independent political decisions" which means if I have to tell you a third time, the shit is really going to hit the fan. Don’t push me, Nas, or you are cruisin’ for a bruisin’.

So sayeth the King.

[Solomon2]

Did somebody say something?

I speculate that our emotions follow the same path as our ideological compatriots on-the-scene in Lebanon at the moment. Things have not turned out as badly as they might, or at least not yet. We wait, albeit nervously, to see who will throw the dice next in this game of war. It is only human to find humor to relieve the stress of such moments.

[fubar]

Solomon, without humor, we would descend into depression and from there it is only a short hop into insanity. Thanks, but there are already enough lunatics in this world. I'll stick with humor, the civilized coping mechanism.

[charlie]

I heard of it...My wife was born in Lebanon County, both of her parents are born and raised there I have even heard and tried Shoe-fly pie, not to mention Lebanon bologna….:-)

By the way Jeha hit his Nail on the head; No Shia movement is going to unseat a Sunni PM..specially not now. HA is doing a lot of woofing..but they are running out of options quick..Lebanon is not Iraq...

[Solomon2]

Chamomile tea also helps. Especially when it's time for sleep. Good night!

[fubar]

Nite, Solomon.

Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware counties are the burbs that ring Philadelphia (the city is also the county). Lebanon county is just a hop, skip, and a jump away - only Berks county between Montgomery and Lebanon. Big explosion and fire in Lebanon a few days ago.

Shoefly Pie - ahhhh, I can smell the molasses now.

Yep, Jeha hide the nail on the head with that one. Looks like Nas has overplayed his hand this time. Just hope SJHG stand strong because you know he is looking for a graceful way out about now. If they cave, it will seriously lessen the sting which he really needs to feel right now. You know, Nas, he is the master of spin. Give him an inch and he will take a mile.

[fubar]

Boy, I am totally misfiring tonight.

Jeha hide = Jeha hit

[R]

Fubar, I think the problem is that they put themselves into one #$%^-hole of a mess and they have no clue how to get out of it. I don't think they expected the arab reaction, hence their own strong reaction against it.

On the other hand, how could they have not? If I saw it, their frikkin analysts should have seen it. Of course, if those are the same analysts who advised him to attack Israel, then we are all royally screwed (Jumblatt's joke by the way, can't take credit for that).

You are right that not giving in now is key. Heck they shouldnt even blink. I am just not as optimistic as many others about HA's ability and will to back down...

[Bad Vilbel]

Fubar,

- Caffeeine? Seriously? You sure you're not spicing it up with some crack? You're all over the place tonight.

- PS: The Flyers suck! (Big hockey fan here!)

- It is interesting how this stuff is playing out. I'm not so sure yet that HA is burning themselves out here. They've been warning about doing MORE than just peaceful demonstrations (Nasrallah and Raad both said the peaceful protests were just step 1. And they'd do whatever it takes to take down the government).

- I went and read Jeha's blog. Not too shabby actually. he does nail several nails on the head.

- Did I mention the Flyers suck?