Deal or no deal?

It is perhaps too early to discuss the so-called Arab initiative, which has reportedly won Hizbullah's and Assad's support. That this "breakthrough" was announced in Damascus, and not in Beirut, speaks volumes about what these protests were really about.

"I have received confirmation from the brothers in Syria that they (support)...Lebanese consensus and support our efforts," Ismail, a Sudanese presidential adviser, said after talks with President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.

Ismail was expected in Beirut later in the day for talks with Lebanese leaders. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa would join him in the Lebanese capital on Tuesday.

Syria's backing is seen as essential in forging any compromise in Lebanon. Though its troops left the country more than 18 months ago, Damascus still wields influence on many groups, the most powerful of which is the pro-Syrian Hezbollah. (Reuters)

This last paragraph by Reuters is straight out of one of "brother" Bashar Assad's dreams: "Syria", "Essential", "Lebanon". Assad must think himself important and "yielding influence" again. Only let's not get ahead of ourselves. There is no "deal" yet, and, unlike what some people are already predicting, nobody has been declared winner, especially not Hizbullah, Aoun and the Assad regime.

Let us start by dispelling the illusion propagated and will be propagated by some Aounists, who believe their street parades won them seats in a "national unity government"—seats that were offered to them without the need to go through Hizbullah and Damascus. If anything, and as many of us suspected, the protests proved that the "national unity government" demand was a façade for a power grab. The only people who still believe the pro-Syrian camp were really asking for a "national unity government" are the wire agencies, usually forced to attach formulaic background information to every action reported.

Last time I checked, Aoun didn't even want to be associated with this government, expanded or not, so crying victory now or tomorrow is strange, insulting and idiotic. As for Hizbullah, and considering that Nasrallah has accused Siniora of treason, anything short of the prime minister's assassination cannot constitute real victory for God's alleged party.  As for Berri, he must be enjoying his new completely discredited self. Even Siniora is now saying that the parliament has been "hijacked". 

In fact, the few details that emerged about the negotiations indicate that they revolve around ideas proposed by PM Siniora before the protests, but were ignored: expansion of the cabinet to comprise 19 pro-March 14, 9 pro-opposition and 1 neutral. Siniora had proposed two neutral members with no voting powers, so not to block or paralyze the cabinet with every political dispute.

The negotiations will probably revolve around the identity and role of the neutral minister, and whether March 14 or Hizbullah/Aoun would name him. There are other details: the tribunal, early presidential elections, parliamentary elections, etc. This means that 11 days of protests did absolutely nothing of positive value for the country and we are essentially back where we left off.

What we do have some 11 days into the occupation of downtown Beirut, is an economy in shambles, businesses that lost millions of dollars, another ruined tourist season, and deepening of sectarian divisions.

But if the protests did nothing to advance the talks between Lebanese "parties", did they benefit the Assad regime? I don't know if it was pragmatism that sent the Arab League to Damascus, and I am clearly not privy to what transpired there.  The Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians have nearly divorced the Syrian regime. The flaky regime and its cohorts have certainly not succeeded in toppling the government. And what appears to be regained influence for Damascus could very well be Damascus being told to quit using the country as a chess board. The envoy made it clear that the basis for any settlement should be "no victor and no vanquished".

But it almost appears as if Hizbullah and Aoun wanted to bring Syria back into the equation. Siniora's proposal had to go through Damascus first, and Damascus was given the opportunity to demonstrate its strength in the country. Sectarian divisions in the country almost always benefit the Assad regime, which has a record in manipulating them. No wonder that immediately after the announcement, Siniora asked Ismail to return to Beirut.

I will await the results of the Arab League sponsored negotiations to lay the final judgment. If Syria now sees itself party to the talks, expect murder and other forms of intimidation, although one could argue that the protests offered an ideal pressure tool. Murdering an entire country, after all, is better than murdering one official.

Comments

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

Siniora has to drag his feet as long as possible; time and patience is on his side ; consider maybe a 2 weeks trip to European capitals for talks.
Eventually Siniora gains strength day by day. No need to rush, take your time.
Patience and perseverance.
.

[e]

I agree for once with Amir. It just seems there is going to be a repeat of what it is going on in establishing a Palestinian unity government. For several months now we are told that "next week" there will be a Palestinian unity government. Only a "few details" need to be ironed out. It seems that the Arab league is applying its expertise from the Palestinian arena to the Lebnese arena. I think this is positive for the Saniora government but Lebanon will remain in a deadlock.

[BadVilbel]

I guess I'm the only one seeing things in a negative light here?

In my opinion, after all the rhetoric, and the lines drawn in the sand, nothing should be acceptable to Siniora short of HA offering concessions to get into the government. And by that, I don't mean this wimpy "We'll come back to the table" stuff. I'm talking "lay down your weapons." or somesuch.

Anything short of that simply looks like Siniora giving in to HA's demands, thanks to pressure from the Arab League.

Going by e's comparison to what's happened with the Palestinian government, I'd say the Arab League's track record is downright awful. If that's the best they can offer, then we're fucked. Royally.

Watch HA get everything they want, not compromise on weapons or on Lahoud, and trumpet this as yet another "divine victory". Their followers need to start seeing HA for the desperate, one-dimensional organization that it is. And that is not going to happen if HA keeps getting their way. Reward the bully for not taking your lunch money, and he'll be back for more in 2 weeks. Guaranteed.

[Hassan]

You're not the only one BV.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

BV,

Don't forget that it was Siniora who forced Hassan to swallow 1701. He looks less of a killer than he really is.
I like him more and more ; looks like he finally starts to enjoy and to feel more comfortable and relaxed than months ago.
Watch him today sitting with the Sudanese, calm, smiling, joking...
He's definitely a historic figure in a making.
I think his goal is to exhaust Hassan, and to leave Hassan's boat in the middle of the sea, windless.
I really hope these are Siniora's intentions.
.

[ghassan karam]

I feel compelled again to repeat what has become a mantra. HA should NOT be admitted into the cabinet under any set of circumstances short of its winning the majority of the parliamentary seats in the upcoming elections if and when it occurs. If March 14 is to accept HA back in the cabinet then the answer to the question ; who lost Lebanon? becomes crystal clear. Saniora has never acted as a strong statesman except for a transitory period when he was responding to Nasrallahs latest tirade. The country has never be served well by this childish formula of "No victors and No Vanquished". There must always be a winner and a loser, maybe all winners or all losers but No winners and No losera!!! give me a break. What a crock.

[R]

I think Ghassan has won me over... I agree that March 14 has been acting with the utmost of incompetence from the parliamentary elections onwards. From a position of strength where the Syrians were forced to leave and they won parliament, had a chance to form a cabinet and had the momentum to get rid of Lahoud, to a position whereby they can't convene parliament, government is teetering, and Lahoud is firm in position... Pitiful...

[charlie]

R and Ghassan,

Not getting rid of Lahoud was a courtesy of Sfeir..He blinked; remember when he announced that they shouldn't take the president down through street protests??

[Bad Vilbel]

Thanks Ghassan! Finally someone seeing it my way :)
This policy of compromise and appeasement simply does not work. March 14 has time and again taken the upper hand only to back down and play "Gracious winner" by letting the opposition back in. Why? They gain nothing by supposedly mollifying HA. HA will just cause the next crisis when it suits them, and we'll be back to square one.

March 14 has to start governing this country already. It's been 2 years and they have done squat, because they've let themselves be paralyzed by HA and Aoun time and again. You can't govern that way. You can't stop everytime the crybaby has a complaint. Just enact your agenda and let them win the next elections if they can.

[fubar]

Well, guys, Osama's boys have finally arrived.

(Daily Star) TYRE: A newly formed Palestinian faction calling itself Fatah-Islam, which allegedly has ties to Al-Qaeda, has sent 150 Arab fighters from Iraq into Lebanon, the head of Fatah in Lebanon said Monday. The militants entered Lebanon without the knowledge of Syrian authorities, which have since arrested a Palestinian leader on suspicion of organizing the new faction's movements, said Sultan Abu al-Aynayn.

"These 150 fighters have infiltrated from Iraq into Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon," added Abu al-Aynayn.

Abu Khaled al-Amli, the head of Fatah-Intifada, a separate group based in Damascus that broke away from Fatah in 1983, was "arrested along with 10 supporters 48 hours ago by Syrian authorities," he said.

Abu al-Aynayn described Fatah-Islam as a "fundamentalist movement with an ideology close to Al-Qaeda and financed by [Osama] bin Laden."

********

Now everyone repeat after me...

Fatah-Islam is OBL.
Fatah-Islam fighters did not come through Syria with Syrian knowledge - NO SYRIAN KNOWLEDGE.
Fatah-Islam is not connected with Syrian based Fatah-Intifada - NO SYRIAN CONNECTION.

Any questions? No, good, keywords - NO SYRIAN CONNECTION.

ROFLMAO!

[charlie]

Fubar,

remember what I said yesterday that this issue is yet another one that is going to be resolved in Lebanon?...I think a battle in the camps is about to get underway...

[Charles Malik]

I disagree with everyone here.

1) Time is not on Saniora's side.
Time allows Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran to continue sending money and weapons to Hezbollah. Time allows for the Syrians to continue to creep back into Lebanon in all of the areas that 14 March has left vacant, which includes the most powerful security apparatus. Time allows trenches to be dug and tunnels expanded.

Worst of all, time means the degradation of Lebanese society. Time allows Lebanon's economy to fester and for all the youth to move away.

Time works on behalf of dictatorships and against democracies. If the status quo continues, how is it beneficial to Saniora? People like me are already upset with 14 March for not getting things done. Sure, we know Hezbollah has been in the way, but we expect results.

Hezbollah can provide results to its constituancy without controlling the government.

2) Hezbollah must be a part of the government.
Keep your enemies closer. The last thing Lebanon needs is another fifth column actively working to undermine the government using non-democratic tools. Yes, I know Hezbollah was a disingenuous member of the cabinet. Yes, they did start the war this summer without government approval. But they've got massive support and have more power than the government or any other sect. Isolating them is a recipe for disaster.

Why put them in the vanquished position when they have the ability to stop all economic progress and send the country back to 1990 through a simple kidnapping?

Hariri's brilliance was his ability to incorporate other parties and bring them into dialogue. He wasn't able to do that with Bashar. He was able to do that with Nasrallah.

Keeping them out of the government would be adding petroleum to the fuel of sectarianism. They have a right to be in the government given that 14 March made a pact with them during the 2005 elections that guaranteed them their position. They are as responsible for the current government as any party, and they know it.

Thank God for Michel Aoun. That man made Omar Karami and Sleiman Franjieh feel like they still were a part of the system, further minimizing their influence. They're just as Lebanese as anyone else, but they have the power and the security connections to cause a lot of problems when they get angry. Give them a voice, and they will go away.

Suppressing speech is the best way to give credence to stupid arguments. Let them have their say in the public forum. Include them in the debate. And let them feel the ridicule instead of feeling oppressed and justified when they do their evil deeds.

[charlie]

BV,

For Lebanon to get to that level of mature democracy, it requires a fundamental change at the grassroots level. Look at them today all assembled downtown, that doesn't look to me like a group of people who are ready, if ever, to comprehend how a democratic government operates. And neither Taef or the Lebanese constitution provides for a path to get there.

[fubar]

Yeah, Charlie, things are not looking good. Lebanese leaders sit down for more talks while Lebanon burns...

Well, what the hell, Siniora wants to prove his Arabness, wants to be last country to ever sign a peace deal with Israel, so welcome to Palestine, men. Can't handle Hezbollah, let's just pile on then and add the Palestinians...

[charlie]

Fubar,

Yeah..Siniora is in a very tough position. However, signing a peace deal with Israel is not really something that is going to help him politically right now, at least not internally. Such a decision requires the commitment of all the Lebanese players. And as long HA is showing this much strength, then the Shia are not going to sign on to it.

[fubar]

Charlie,

I'm not really suggesting peace with Israel as a possibility at this time. Just pointing out how well Ahmadinejad is triangulating the Siniora government.

[charlie]

Fubar,

Ahmadinejad is trying to triangulate the entire Arab Sunni world. If Egypt-Saudi and Jordan can get it together, they should step in and help the US on the ground in Iraq rather than sitting on the sidelines. For the US-Arab team to win this, they will have to make the hard decision and take out the Assad regime in Syria. This will kill Iran’s reach to Lebanon and Palastine..and will greatly cripple their move westward...

[fubar]

Well said, Charlie.

What a mess. The Arabs created the Palestinian problem by keeping them as refugees as a stick to hit Israel with all these years. But what the Arabs will never say openly is that they are scared shitless of the Persians, always have been. So now that Ahmadinejad is on the rise and has pulled the Palestinians into his camp, the Arabs are about to be hoisted on their own pitard. Ouch.

BTW, you see where Olmert admitted Israel's nukes for the first time today.

Looks like this baby is going hot real soon.

[Bad Vilbel]

I agree with Charlie here.

And I disagree with you, Charles Malik. You're still playing by the old rules. It's time for new ones.

[charlie]

Saw that. Also notice how the Gulf states are starting to talk about joined Nuclear programs for peaceful purposes??

Iran goes Nuclear, Look for the US to place Nukes in Saudi

[fubar]

Yep, and not that it matters much in the ME, but the Aussies are also going nuke, too, to protect the far eastern front.

Got to tell you, I see Japan as nuclear within a couple years. They can be there in months whenever they want so they have the luxury of waiting to pull the trigger and making China real nervous.

Seems Admadinejad has sparked a rush to "peaceful nuclear" protection. With all those nukes laying around, someone is going to use one. And I would bet my life its going to go off in the ME.

[charlie]

Scary like anything..and it won't even surprise me at all if that is to happen.

[fubar]

Yeah, well, no reason to panic when we can all just sit around and talk... right? = (

[fubar]

R -

Regarding your questions from yesterday, Condi has a message for you...

(AFP) US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Syria and Iran in an exclusive interview with AFP that the "future of Lebanon is not an issue for negotiation."

In an exclusive interview with AFP, Rice rejected mounting calls to deal directly with Damascus and Tehran as part of efforts to end the crisis in Iraq and said the two states should have no doubts about Washington's commitment to the embattled government of Lebanon.

“In no way is the US going to get into a situation where it is even a conceivable notion on the part of Syria or Iran that the future of Lebanon would somehow be compromised for other interests of the US," she said.

"I want to make it very clear that the future of Lebanon is not an issue for negotiation with anybody," she said.
...

"It's just extremely important that we be very clear: we understand who Lebanon's enemies are and those that are trying to bring down the Siniora government," Rice said.

"There is no way that the United States or the international community could ever countenance a reassertion of Syrian authority in Lebanon," she said.

[R]

Well I am very flattered that Condi herself took the time to answer my question :)... good answer too.

[fubar]

Gee, maybe Condi reads Abu Kais, including the comments, too... ;-)

[Bad Vilbel]

Problem I have with Condi's statement is that we've been hearing that for over a year now. But nothing has actually been done to get the Syrians to stop.
You can only repeat "Don't poke at Lebanon, or else..." so many times before it turns into the boy who cries wolf. Assad doesn't seem to give a crap what Condi thinks.

And he ain't the type who's mind is gonna be changed by words.
He's gonna have to get a taste of the stick at some point.

[fubar]

Bad Vilbel, you just don't get the whole diplomacy thing, do you?

You see you telegraph your positions, then your intentions. You only act when all else fails.

And let us not forget. We are all pretending that Lebanon is actually a real functioning democracy and not some hodgepodge collective of tribal leaders. So, we have to let that democracy work out its own problems, if it can.

What do you want, a hellfire missile on Assad's head?

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

charlie, fubar,

Peace with Israel. Why not now?
If March 14 decide they want it, could they pass it in Parliament?
Why not bring something new, fresh, shocking to rock n' roll the old fundamentals?
When will you make peace? When HZB is a majority?

I agree with Charles Malik. When your enemies are strong, keep them close till when you get stronger, only then dump them.
.

[fubar]

Amir,

Siniora is hanging on by a thread. He is not getting stronger. While he has been holding his own, Lebanon is going down the tubes economically. Soon he will not just be dealing with Hezbollah, but with the Palestinians too.

If Siniora were even to mention peace with Israel at this point, his government would collapse.

[Jay]

Reports are coming in that the Arab League deal has failed. Time is working against March 14 and I think the opposition knows this.

[charlie]

Amir,

Siniora is staring down hundreds of thousands of angry Shia who are calling him traitor for meeting with the US, do you think they are going to listen objectively to him preaching peace with Israel!! I don't think so. A nice inactive front with heavy UNFIL presence is as good as it is going to get for now, and that is just fine.

[Vulcan]

A hellfire missile on Assad's head sounds great
and Amir howcome your wimp Olmert didnt try to take out fatso Nas when he had the chance to do it in the victory parade, you guys take out Nas and maybe then we will talk peace

[fubar]

Something is going on in the Saudi Kingdom. Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, left Washington yesterday in a very unusual hurry. After only 15 months as the Saudi Ambassador to the US, his unexpected and hurried departure, without time for any of the formal diplomatic niceties associated with leaving such a post, is very interesting.

Anybody seeing anything in the Arab press? Anyone gone suddenly ill or worse?

[Battal Agha]

Hey People,
I really don't like the Arab League mediation. Do you remember the 1969 Cairo Agreement? It was sponsored by the Arab League. Boy oh Boy, I really have no confidence in these arab brothers and sisters who want to help Lebanon. All they want to do is make sure nothing happens in their country... I hope that PM Siniora willstand firm and will continue to defend the independence of Lebanon

[ghassan karam]

AlShark Al Awsat is carrying an item about Lebanon that I have not been able to confirm through another publication. It is stating that Qassem of HA has indicated the opposition's willingness to go back to the cabinet with a 1/3 plus one in exchange for an early Presidential election provided Lahoud stays in office until his official ends. I was never anamored by this formula when it was first applied under Sarkis in 1978 and I hope that no one will take this offer seriously. Has anyone seen this news item reported in other publications?

(If March 14 are afraid that their group might lose the next round of parliamentary elections then they might be tempted to use their current majority to elect a President now. I just dont buy into this logic. If a party or group are going to lose their majority then they should l;ose the privileges associated with that majority. Will democracy ever take hold in this cursed nation or is everyone looking for ways to short circuit the system for personal benefit?)

[R]

fubar and ghassan,
Nothing in the press that I can find on any of these two subjects...

[R]

fubar,
al-arabiya has unconfirmed reports that Turki al-faisal has left to "spend more time with his family". They cited the washington post...

[BadVilbel]

Fubar,

It's not that I don't get "Diplomacy". I get it just fine. In fact, I'm a big advocate of talking first and shooting later.
But I also know that there is a certain TYPE of people who are incapable of "talking". It's just not in their makeup. You can only try talking to them for so long before you have to make them understand your point through other, more forceful means.

People like Bashar, Saddam, Nasrallah, fall under that category. These are folks who will not understand repeated warnings. They never have, and they never will.

Notice I left Iran out of that list because I happen to think that there are people in the Iranian regime who will listen and negotiate, even if they put on an outward mask of nothing but rhetoric. But I'm getting off topic here.

The bit about Syria is that it's been 2 years during which Bashar and his cohorts have been "warned" verbally over and over (at the tune of once a week, AT LEAST) to stop meddling in Lebanon. They've been warned by GWB, Condi, the Saudis, The Egyptians, basically, EVERYONE. To a guy like Bashar, who's had no wars during his reign (very much unlike his father), this all sounds like the boy who cried wolf. He honestly believes that he can get away with murder (and he has, several murders) and that the Americans will bitch everytime but do nothing. Israel won't attack, because they're too scared of a Syria without the Assad regime. And basically, that's Bashar's strength. He feels untouchable. he feels he presents the lesser of 2 evils in Syria, and that he can do whatever he wants, as long as he can put up with the Americans voicing some "strong verbal objections" after every one of his assassinations. It's very much the Hitler-Chamberlain dynamic.

At some point, you have to make this guy understand that there will be painful repercussions for his actions. That's the only way he'll take these verbal warnings seriously.
It's like the dog who pees in your bed. You gotta spank him a few times, so he starts associating the word "No!" with pain and consequences.

[fubar]

Yo, Bad Vilbel, excuse me? My bed? I will have you know that I do not sleep with dogs. Ever. = )

[fubar]

Sorry, bad vilbel, but any serious smack at Assad will result in giving him an excuse to smack someone else (Israel or Lebanon). Now who do you really think Baby Doc is going to smack - Israel who will smack back or Lebanon who will not. Shit rolls downhill and Lebanon is as the bottom of the hill. And if the shit hits the fan, Hezbollah takes over Lebanon.

So, with Baby Doc, there is no acceptable half measure -- it's an all or nothing proposition.

Since you like analogies, its like your bully example. When someone bigger smacks the bully who stole your lunch money, the bully doesn't fight back against the bigger guy, he goes off in search of someone weaker to retaliate against.

[fubar]

R--

Yeah, that's the official story.

His brother Saud has been ill for a long time - Parkinson's or something like that. But not death bed stuff. Hmmmm, maybe Saud is even more ill than thought. Turki could be in line for foreign minister. But one must never forget he is also in contention for next King and any important jockeying which needed to be done would necessitate him going home.

[BadVilbel]

fubar,

I get what you're saying. But what's the answer? Keep giving our lunch money to the bully next door while Condi and co. "verbally warn" him not take our money and do nothing about it?

I agree, it's an all or nothing from here on out. And frankly, I think it's never gonna end for Lebanon, for Israel, and for the US, until:
a- The Assad regime is dealt with.
b- The Iranian regime is dealt with.
c- A comprehensive peace is negotiated between Palestinians and Israelis.

And frankly, you're not gonna get to C until you get through A and B (because Syria and Iran can continue sabotaging any peace that may be in the works).
It's really a very simple equation.

The rest is all fluff to pass the time.

[fubar]

So simple, BV. I cannot believe that, after all these years, I never thought of that. I must be stuck with an obstructed view due to a shitload of fluff. Or maybe it isn't so simple because maybe fluff can be hazardous to your health. And maybe a wrong move, like tripping over some fluff you didn't see, could do something like, say, this...

http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/end.php