Michel Aoun: the biggest loser?

Aoun's parliamentary bloc member Nematallah Abi Nasr has called on the cabinet to convene to approve the international tribunal. He urged the participation of the resigning ministers and of Emile Lahoud. Abi Nasr additionally asked parliament speaker Nabih Berri to call parliament into session to endorse the court.

Abi Nasr is famous for always distancing himself and the Aoun bloc from the understanding Aoun signed with Hizbullah. Last February, he claimed he wasn’t aware of Aoun's intentions in that regard. He and his bloc did not attend the signing ceremony with Hizbullah. The justification was that this is an understanding with the Free Patriotic Movement, and not Aoun's coalition in parliament.

Aoun himself told Aljazeera yesterday that his bloc will "most likely" vote for the tribunal. Prior to the Gemyael assassination, he described the tribunal as a "big lie" and said the cabinet was unconstitutional after the resignation of the ministers. This perhaps proves that Aoun's opposition is not always genuine, and hinges on calculations related to his presidential campaign.

But Aoun has no choice. With even businesses in the country going on strike to put pressure on the him and Hizbullah to endorse the tribunal, he must have found himself increasingly isolated, especially in the Christian community. After the assassination of Gemayel, Christians burned his posters, and Amin Gemayel, Pierre's father, refused to receive him to pay condolences. The crowds at the funeral yesterday shouted obscenities at him and Nasrallah, and the organizers snubbed him when he called on his followers to participate.

Is it too late for the general to regain some of the respect he lost in his community and the country as a whole? Perhaps. One thing is certain: the general will never be president. The poster, "Aoun for president", that was hanging above people's heads in Ashrafieh has been reduced to ashes by his would-be supporters, who now see him as a traitor. 

Aoun will not change his ways. In his Aljazeera interview, he denied that he is isolated and blamed the current impasse on the Lebanese cabinet. He said he will not leave the "opposition" and that he will continue to honor his understanding with Hizbullah. He even described Amin Gemayel, who lashed out at Aoun and Lahoud in his speech yesterday, as "psychologically disturbed" for pointing the finger quickly at Syria. Aoun called on the bereaved father to "listen to his conscience".

The FPM leader is clearly convinced that his current route is the best. It remains to be seen how far his parliamentary coalition can afford to support his tactics. Hordes of Hizbullah supporters marching towards Ain El Remmaneh yesterday (LBC News) to avenge Nasrallah's honor proved that his understanding with Hizbullah cannot achieve the kind of inter-sectarian harmony it was promoted to do. The events of late have proved that it is being used as a cover by Hizbullah and the Assad regime to take over the country, and by Aoun to reach the presidency. I cannot see Aoun able to mobilize masses to march, with Hizbullah, against the shield that yesterday's funeral built around the government. At least not in the near future.

Update. According to the Daily Star, Aoun is planning to send his people to the street next week to topple the government. I don't know how to reconcile the following with the above call by his bloc and I couldn't find the quote in As-Safir.

As-Safir newspaper quoted sources close to the FPM's leader, MP Michel Aoun, as saying Friday that "protests might start early next week." Aoun said during a press conference held following an FPM meeting to discuss Gemayel's assassination that he will proceed with his allies with movements to force the Siniora Cabinet to resign.

"We haven't given up on our demand," Aoun said, in reference to the formation of a national unity government. "We have decided to participate. The security situation has deteriorated, the political situation has deteriorated and the economic situation as well ... We could have stopped this deterioration if they had listened to us from the beginning," the former general added.

Comments

[R]

Oh so true AbuKais,
I was on the verge of puking the other day upon watching an episode of BBC's hardtalk where the (venomous?) Butheina Shaaban was guest... It was so disgusting to listen to her repeatedly repeat Aoun's name and flaunt his Christianity as a cover for HA. She counted him as an ally of Syria and a member of the Lebanese opposition whom they support... It is so disturbing that a man of his PERCEIVED history (what a sham) can throw everything (that his supporters sacrificed) away for personal ambition and inadvertently become a tool of Syrian propagandists, and perhaps even worse, an apologist for murder...

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

The problem with Lebanese politics (and Iraqi as well) is that it's not about plans or platforms, but it is about sectarianism and religion.
So what happens is that the leaders are not elected according to their plans and programs ; so it makes it impossible to judge their deeds.
Vote for a Lebanese candidate is a cart blanch ; no accountability, no responsibility.
This gives those Lebanese leaders a greater freedom than it has to be in a true democracy. This "freedom" and blind trust is destructive and frustrating.
.

[Mustapha]

Bshara Charbel, from Al-Balad, a newspaper generally sympathetic to Aoun, had this analysis today (pasted because albalad doesn't have permalink)

ربما كانت اصابة التيار العوني باغتيال الشيخ بيار أكبر من وقع الكارثة على غيره. فالتيار الذي كان يخوض معركة زعيمه نحو بعبدا انطلاقا من قوته المسيحية المتمركزة في المتن وكسروان فقد منذ لحظة الاغتيال وحتى التشييع وهجاً ومواقع لم يتسبب سلوكه السياسي بفقدانه لمثلها منذ قرر التفاهم مع "حزب الله" ومنذ بدا بعد ذلك كأنه جزء من المحور السوري ــ الايراني. فالفقيد راسخ في متنيته ومسيحيته، والاصطفاف السياسي الحاد أكبر من قدرة الناس على التفكير الحيادي.

تحتاج خسارة "التيار" الى تحليل متعدد الأبعاد لكن الأكيد ان خروج "التيار" من بيئته، عن خطأ أو صواب، جعله عارياً أمس، وسحب حتى إشعار آخر الغطاء الذي كان يوفره لـ"8 آذار". فالجمهور المسيحي لا يزال منذ جريمة اغتيال الرئيس الحريري يتحرك في ظل شعارات اعادة تأسيس الدولة، ولم ينزل اهتماماته الى المستوى الذي حاول "التيار" دفعه إليه عبر تكثيف الحديث عن الفساد والاستئثار وتهميش المسيحيين والديون. هذا الجمهور أظهر أمس ان هاجسه كيفية وقف مسلسل العنف وموقع لبنان من الصراع، بل لا يزال هاجسه شعار التيار الأصلي "حرية، سيادة، استقلال".

[Abu Kais]

Thanks Mustapha! Good piece!

[diana]

and France? Sweet, loving France that lets Hezbollah arm themselves more and more............?
Et tu Brute.................?

[Epicurus]

With regards to your update, Aoun's position is reconcilable with Abi Nasr's call to reconvene, because according to Aoun's New TV interview today, Abi Nasr was expressing a personal view (and thus, apparently, not the official view of the FPM)
link: http://www.lfpm.org/forum/showthread.php?t=20833

[ghassan karam]

Aoun is not a seminal political figure in Lebanese politics. He is a second-tier player whose support nonetheless will tilt the political balance of power in favour pf those that he aligns himself with. But he has been ineffective, unreliable and veruy much of an egocentric person. Maybe the recent events would help get him off this egocentric trip. If and when he does he could become more effective but he must renounce any illusions of his becoming a president of the republic. Besides being unqualified general Aoun has become too much of a devisive political figure to be taken seriously.

[Dinah Lord]

This Aoun character sounds like John Kerry in the US...
Enjoying my first visit to your site. I'll be back. Cheers - Dinah

[e]

Aoun and Berri should get married. Are same sex marriages allowed in Lebanon?
e

[Charlie]

Aoun has a canny ability of misreading the landscape around him and continues to drag his supporters down meaningless self destructing battles. Aoun is a true dictatorial fascist at heart, with an over inflated self worth. He is nothing more than a little spoiler that has no problems at all sacrificing the greater good for his personal goals. While the March 14 alliance is sacrificing to build a free democratic Nation, he is running around aligning himself with the fascists and their cultist allies. I am not sure how people from the Meten and Kisrwan region who throughout the Syrian dominance were the most vocal in opposing it can stomach such bed fellas...

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

I can't understand stupid and opportunistic politicians.
What do they think? that everybody is stupid all the time, but they are smart?

About Aoun, they say that he who sleeps with the dogs, gets fleas.
.

[fubar]

Charlie,

You are right in that Aoun has put his personal goals above the nation. However, March 14 is not quite as virtuous as you paint them. Yes, they are fighting for democracy, but in large measure because they will continue to profit under democracy. Almost no one in Lebanese politics, as far as I can see, is truly pure in motive. That said, March 14 is far and away the best choice between the two. But Ghassan Karam is right, Aoun could tilt the balance of power. Not to mention that defection from the pro-Syrian group would not only be a natural return to his history but create an alliance of all against Hezbollah/Amal, that is all non-Shia factions against the Shia factions. It would remove the FPM Christian cover that Hezbollah is using as a shield. For all Aoun's faults, his return to the anti-Syrian side would be a major coup for March 14.

[Charlie]

Fubar,
I agree they are not angels, heck no one in politics can ever qualify as an angel...:-)
lets be a bit pragmatic, don't you think all politicians benefit from their political engagement? In this case however, they do represent a movement that is truly interested in keeping Lebanon from the regional conflicts which will bring stability which is the most important ingredient to any vibrant economy. They can benefit as long as enough of that trickles back to society at large and lifts the entire nation.

Here is the thing a confrontation with HA is going to happen and Aoun will be the first to go down once the sh** hits the fan. He will either has to move to Zogharta and take Suleiman Franjieh as a roommate or move back to Haret Herik and get fitted with with a turban...:-)

[fubar]

Charlie,

Pointedly pointed, as usual.

Check this out, read all the way to the end, there is a very interesting plot twist.

http://tks.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODUxYWVlYTYxMDJiMDY2NzkwOWJkODBjZWQ5OGM5NmQ=

[Vulcan]

What I don’t understand is why Cardinal Sfeir maintains his illicit support for this duplicitous little piece of chicken shit Aoun and the Damascus ten dollar mule in Baabda !!
all it takes is a word from the man of the cloth and those two clowns will lose whatever support they have in the Christian community.
And those Aoun supporters the grass root are they That Fuckin’ Deluded? Those pretty college girls waiving the orange flag “Girls gone wild”!? am puzzled.

In an effort to preserve my sanity I am contemplating switching from
Newspapers and blogs to porn sites, any good tips?

[Jeha]

The Scary simple truth is that, nowadays, the "Hordes of Hizbullah supporters marching towards Ain El Remmaneh yesterday" would not have been met with flowers this time around.

Emotions are high, but they were kept in check. Aoun, however, still has many supporters. I try to keep at "equal distance" from all, and this allows me an appreciation of the degree of disgust that Geagea and Joumblat inspire among many.

Aoun's strength is that many among the best among us will never accept the "repent" of ex-warlords and corrupt officials, and see him as a necessary evil to keep them in check. But you are indeed correct in concluding that his presidential chances are all but gone; the only one who looked presidential was Amine Gemayel.

[Vulcan]

It seems both 14 June and august 8 parties are playing a game of chicken or who will blink first. Given the lack of resolve on the part of September 14th it looks like they will blink first AGAIN and the November 8th party will have the upper hand in a matter of days.
until new blood is spilled
the saga continues

Days of our lives

[JoseyWales]

Vulcan,

The blinking has begun. Saniora is postponing the cabinet meeting on the tribunal if the Hezbo ministers return for talks.

Milquetoast Seniora is hopeless. He should try to get them back by CORNERING them and setting his conditions UP FRONT and publicly. Conditions that Hezbo will find very difficult to reject. Instead we get gain this baloney of open ended talks. They keep screwing a little more everyday.

As to Sfeir and the whole Maronite community they actively campaign againsts until he is gone and boycott anyone who meets with him. ANYONE even his cook.

[JoseyWales]

Oops, sorry bad typing.

Last paragraph applies to Lahoud of course.

[Ghassan Karam]

Josey,
I think that you are being too generous when you suggest taking the HA/Amal ministers back provided they agree to some tough conditions. As we have stated many times over the past 15 months the cabinet structure was incongrous from day one. It was only a matter of time for this incongruity to become visible and cause a fissure. There is only one solution and it ain't a national unity government.Saniora should act with strengthand resolve, he should NOT allow the HA ministers back under any set of circumstances. The silly idea about the need for a national unity government negates the need for elections. Why bother and act responsibly and appeal to constituents if you are gauranteed membership in the cabinet?

BTW, it is instructive to look at the recent results of the Dutch elections. Four major parties won most of the votes but the largest party , the Christian Democrats, will lead the government by choosing one of the other three that will agree to their conditions provided that party can deliver enough votes to provide the government with the requisite majority. No one has even dared suggest a national unity government. Actually I feel that if one was to form a national unity government then the politically mature electorate will reject it because a combination of extreme left and extreme right in the same government means that one of the parties, possibly both are disingenous. The Lebanese political game will not change and will not join modernity until tye Lebanese voter matures and grows up.

[ghassan karam]

I neglected to add one other point in my previous post: Saniora has shown over the months that he is a very decent man but he is not the right man for the current situation. He is NOT capable of taking a stand and making the hard choices As Josey is fond of saying he is milquetoast after all. March 14 has no choice but to change horses if they desire this competition to end the way they envision it. Saniora must go.

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

I like Siniora more and more.
First, one has to admire his courage ; his life is in danger.!!
He tries never to be cornered ; he takes the say that politics is 'the art of possible' one step further.
He knows that Lebanese politics is fully un-independent and that real decisions are being decided in other capitals, so he wants to buy time, not to make decisions of no-return, but to row the heavy and unstable vessel of March 14 through troubled waters.
Very wise !!
.

[charlie]

Ghassan,

I can understand your frustration. My frustration is not as much with Siniora but with the bogus political make up of the Lebanese power sharing structure. There is no way under this so called “National Pact” to produce a strong leadership in the executive branch (president and PM) to actually lead with a coherent agenda. What the Lebanese system produces are guardians to the sects not guardians to the Nation, these sectarian guards’ job is to keep a watchful eye on their brethrens and undermine each other rather than collaborate to build a nation.

Let’s take Siniora’s for example. He gained his Premiership based on parliamentary support, but he has a president who has strong veto powers to undermine his work or be just a stubborn obstructionist and there is nothing he can do about it. He can’t even replace ministers in his own cabinet without the approval of the president. So we all say let’s accept the resignation of HA and Amal ministers and replace them. Fine, if this work proceeds, then Siniora will be inviting Lahoud to hold up the government indefinitely to which Lahoud (and Syria) is more than happy to do. Remember how Lahoud tried that game when Siniora was putting the government together after the elections, only Gibran’s assassination forced him to sign off. Since then Lahoud tried to get in the way of any decision this cabinet tried to put forward, I still don’t think they resolved the judicial appointments!!! If we are to see the type of governing you mentioned in your Dutch example, the entire political system has to be revamped where only one elected leader steers the nation from the executive office. We all know which way a ship with two captains will go….Down!!!....:-)

[charlie]

Fubar,
That is scary..I just hope when the time comes to establishing the international tribunal (if ever), our critic friend has nothing to do with appointemnts of the judges

[JoseyWales]

Gus (Karam),

No disagreement from me on all you said.

I suggested getting those guys back (on tough terms) only because it's very delicate to have a whole community "shunned" thanks to whore Berri (and granted they left and no one forced them).

It's also a way to call their bluff. They keep saying it's not the tribunal when it's not the first time HA and whore Berri torpedo the tribunal.

On the question of how one should govern you are right. This is how we got in trouble in the first place, in 1970s, when a two-sided gvmnt (Prez/PM) could not act.

[toni]

although it is too late to comment , but i would like to present my opinion, being a FPM supporter, some of the vulgar words about Gen. Aoun were written which were not supposed to. we are open minded for any political discussion n that is our basic understanding in politics , everybody has his right to support his leader but to insult others is unacceptable. thks

[Nicolas]

I wish that Aoun had in 1988-1990 the same speeches and strategy that he has now and, that in the present he adopt the speeches and strategy that he had in 1988-1990. He would have saved Lebanon a lot of wars, destructions and major problems........
He is just 15 years behind or ahead on his startegy......
The bottom line, you cannot be stupid at age 55 and become smart at age 70. The opposite could be true.

[tonyb]

toni,

Please explain to me the reason for using the streets as a strategy when back when he was part of March 14 alliance he didn't think the streets can solve the problem of the presidency. Last I checked the FPM were camping downtown?

And if the FPM is with the tribunal as Mr Kanaan says why can't they convince NAS to fully endorse it as part of the solution to the crisis?

The simple answer is because Hezb is dictating the strategy and the FPM is following it blindly hoping that will be the ticket to the presidency.

[another_somone]

to be more accurate and fair here:

Michel Aoun is blindly following Hezb for his ticket, and FPM is blindly following Michel Aoun for the ride.

[toni]

tonyb
if u have noticed lately the direct accusations for the assasinations which were spread over the media specifically by MP jumblat,which gives u an example of how the tribunal with the existing conditions will be used in future, if jumblat knows this much then why doesn't he pass his info to bramertz, especially about late P. gemayel. gentlemen, the over view of the crises is that jumblat is trying to ignite the religious issue in order to have his own canton. pls try to minimize reading n listening to small details n see what is planned for the area. last, i believe if Aoun wanted the presidency he would not have signed an understanding with hizbulla, last hint, he was the only leader who was after the issuance of a law against syria in USA.

[Rabih Mogharbel]

HIreLebanese.com -

Is a website for Lebanese Job seekers. For Lebanese by Lebanese.

[BOSS]

IN 09-12-2008
A BIG LOSER IN OUR DREAMS IN MY OPIION AFTER THE EVENTS THAT FOLLOWED DURING THE PAST YEARS IT SEEMS T ME THAT AOUN CAN SEE FUTURE - A BETTER FUTURE HE STILLS HAS HIS POPULARITY NOTCHRISTIA BUT I THINK NATION WIDE -- WHAT DID SANIORA DO TO US NOTHING WHAT DID HARIRI DO NOTHING AND THE LEBANESE FORCES AND THE KATAEB AND AND AND .... I NEVER HEARD ANYONE OF THEM TALKING ABOUT THE WELL FARE OF THE COUNTRY
PS. IM ONLY A LEBANESE CITIZEN WO WATCHES AND SEES THE GOOD AND RIGHTS OF OUR POLITICIANS