From Somalia to the suburb
Nasrallah likes to boast that he doesn’t need anyone to fight along side his fighters. In one of his first speeches after the war broke out, he addressed Arabs saying that he didn’t want their help in his holy fight.
A UN report disclosed by Reuters on Monday revealed that Hizbullah sought hired help from Somalia. What, Nasrallah… a liar?
It states that in mid-July, Aden Hashi Farah, a leader of the Somali Islamist alliance, personally selected about 720 combat-hardened fighters to travel to Lebanon and fight alongside Hezbollah.
At least 100 Somalis had returned by early September — with five Hezbollah members — while others stayed on in Lebanon for advanced military training, the report says. It is not clear how many may have been killed, though the report says some were wounded and later treated after their return to Somalia.
The fighters were paid a minimum of $2,000 for their service, the report says, and as much as $30,000 was to be given to the families of those killed, with money donated by “a number of supporting countries.”
In addition to training some Somali militants, Hezbollah “arranged for additional support to be given” by Iran and Syria, including weapons, the report found. On July 27, 200 Somali fighters also traveled to Syria to be trained in guerrilla warfare, the report says.
Not long ago, Nasrallah admitted to being a sugar-daddy of militants, helping Hamas in Palestine financially, and at some point by smuggling arms until they were busted by Jordan.
Now it’s Somalia. It’s humiliating enough that the party is willing to prostitute the entire country for some secondary cause. Now he is turning it into training ground for African rebels, not to mention a transit stop for weapon shoppers.
This is Hizbullah. In the words of one of its MPs in August, it’s something greater than Lebanon.
“Today, the resistance became greater than the Lebanese scene, its influence on the moral and mobilization levels reaching beyond the country,” said Hizbullah MP Mohammad Raad during a Hizbullah "celebration" in Nabatiyeh on Monday.
Hizbullah, Lebanese resistance movement. Not.










Some background for those who are Lebanon-centric.
The Islamist of Somalia go by the name of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). They have been steadily undermining the weak transitional federal government of Somalia set up after years of civil war (sound familiar?). They are merciless in their tactics. They assassinate govt. officials for sport. They are steadily advancing and taking more and more ground every day. The central government has requested the assistance of Ethiopia in fending off the ICU. Ethiopia is comparatively a much stronger country militarily and a neighboring country. Ethiopia agreed to assist the Somali central government. Unfortunately for Ethiopia, it is a historically Christian country. As a result, the mere suggestion of the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia resulted in a declaration of war by the ICU against Ethiopia. The ICU now frames their war as one of resistence against the Ethiopian/Christian invaders (sound familiar?)
As an added bonus, Eritrea is a small country on Ethiopia’s northeast border which broke away from Ethiopia 1991. There has been an on-going UN monitored dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea since 2000 over the exact location of the border (sound familiar?). The UN monitoring group is in Eritrea, not in Ethiopia (sound familiar?) Eritrea has sided with the ICU - the enemy of my enemy is my friend logic holding major sway. As we speak, Somalia is on the verge of erupting into all out civil war.
The ICU received a lot of financing from Saudis (not necessarily the govt., but individuals and entities within the country). As funds got crimped to the ICU, the ICU looked for other funding. Enter Iran. The ICU is not picky and will take money, weapons, etc. from any source.
You may recall that the fatwa against Pope Benedict came from Somalia.
There you have it. The possible foreshadowing of Lebanon.
Posted by: fubar | Wednesday, November 15, 2006 at 07:27 PM
my comment is this, why would somali want to get help from helps people of Lebonan? get over yourself man, you are really stupid. no wonder the Isrealites are beating you if you believe that garbage that came from UN. No one believes US or UN
Posted by: Ubah | Wednesday, November 15, 2006 at 08:39 PM
After all these years, Libya still cares...
The Libyan government is floating a proposal to host an international peace conference on the Middle East. It would focus on the crisis in Iraq, but would also embrace Iran and the rapidly deteriorating situation in Lebanon.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=897
Posted by: fubar | Wednesday, November 15, 2006 at 08:58 PM
Oh good ol' Kadhafi. Who still takes him seriously. When I was in Lebanon, there was a rumor that he's involved in the Hariri assassination. Who knows, I wouldn't put anything past that man. Even his son, Islam, who apparently wanted to reform the country, got sick of his father's ways and is reportedly leaving the country to seek work abroad.
Posted by: Abu Kais | Wednesday, November 15, 2006 at 10:26 PM
As the Israelites beating stupid people who believe the UN, what can I say... Moses is dead, long live Nasrallah... I can't wait until he parts the blue sea.
Posted by: Abu Kais | Wednesday, November 15, 2006 at 10:29 PM
Abu Kais,
Agreed. Libya acting as a neutral arbitrator is kind of like Syria acting as a neutral arbitator.
But maybe, if Berri puts on his Persian thinking hat, he will agree to such a negotiation. Then he gets Islam to come to Lebanon where he can kidnap Islam and keep him holed up with Arad, Goldwasser, and Regev until Libya agrees to a prisoner swap - Islam for Moussa El Sadr (or at least truthful testimony about his disappearance). Berri could even taunt the old man by demanding a price for proof of life. There is just no down side here.
/sarcasm off
Posted by: fubar | Wednesday, November 15, 2006 at 11:04 PM
fubar,
That last bit was pure comedy gold! :)
Posted by: bad vilbel | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 12:12 AM
Abu Kais, Do you really believe this UN crap about Somali help?I don't
Posted by: Mustapha | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 02:06 AM
Mustapha,
Wasn't it 'Shii' Iran who got caught trying to smuggle arms to 'Sunni' palestinians (on bord the ship "Carin A") ?
fubar,
Wasn't it Kathaffi who proposed to establish a new middle-eastern state called "Isartin" ?
Is this sound to you as a malignant kind of cancer?
.
Posted by: Amir from Tel Aviv | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 04:05 AM
Mustapha,
Wasn't it 'Shii' Iran who got caught trying to smuggle arms to 'Sunni' palestinians (on bord the ship "Carin A") ?
fubar,
Wasn't it Kathaffi who proposed to establish a new middle-eastern state called "Isartin" ?
Is this sound to you as a malignant kind of cancer?
.
Posted by: Amir from Tel Aviv | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 04:06 AM
I tend to agree with Mustapha. I have a hard time believing that report. In addition to Mustapha's arguments, HA already has a hard time trusting their own (i.e. Lebanese Shiaas) for starting to recruit from Somalia.
Posted by: Free Cedar | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 07:38 AM
Mustapha,
the issue is not, as you euphemistically put it, "Somali help". You make it sound as if it was all about some sort of "humanitarian assistance".
No. It's about hired and hardened Somali combatants of an ideological outlook very similar to HA's.
Posted by: Michael H. | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 07:48 AM
I disagree with Mustapha (I'm a frequent reader of Beirut Spring too though). The help in question need not have been fighting IDF in the front lines with Hezbollah's elite, it could've been learning to move and hide weapons or to use a rocket launcher as part of a HA squad or such. Kind of like a "learning at work" program. The key is not that HA needed help, it's that there's cooperation between Somalian militants and HA/Iran/Syria.
Posted by: jay | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 09:38 AM
How oil wealth corrupts.
2K$ for fighters, 30K$ per family of fallen fighters.
Shiny new weapons. Growing arsenel of new Nukes.
Plans to extend Persian borders around Iraq, Syria and beyond.
MalMood is having a ball. = TG
Posted by: TonyGuitar | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 05:46 PM
So, I’m at the watering hole, knocking a couple back, wasting time while waiting to go to a meeting where the main topic of discussion, although not officially on the agenda, will be how much longer are we going to have to wait. And, in a moment of clarity, it hits me – I have officially become the epitome of the human version of Lebanon.
After having attended the meeting, which played out just as I had predicted, I have decided that there is no point in dwelling on when we will be able to move into action. We are in that period when all assets are positioned, everything has been checked and rechecked, and the tension has turned to boredom broken only by amusing insults and childish, but still somehow funny, declarations and acts of bravado to which the only appropriate response is – bottoms up!
So, instead of my normal response to Amir when he has clearly been hitting the pipe a little hard (you can always tell when either his English or his logic goes haywire), today I break with tradition and say, go ahead, fire it up, man, whatever makes you happy. F*** the 8 hour rule. Break the boredom and enjoy the lull.
Cheers.
Posted by: fubar | Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 08:26 PM
fubar, is March 14 really in a position to do anything? Hezbollah's allies have a clear game plan. Its militants cause havoc with their "civil disobedience" campaign (as if their weapons smuggling and intimidation tactics aren't disobedience already), while the rest of the them call for a unity government and early elections. The old good cop, bad cop routine. What the hell is March 14's game plan? Just sit and wait? Siniora should move swiftly to replace the Shia ministers, and start to do something that seems to be completely alien concept for the Lebanese government: govern! Start doing something about those reconstruction projects. Draft an election reform. And whatever else is supposed to be on March 14 agenda.
Posted by: jay | Friday, November 17, 2006 at 02:07 AM
Abu Kais,
I donnow, common sense tells me that cannot be possible.
Not because the somalies would never do that, and not because Hizballah would never do that.
It is just because someone (Israel) would have noticed it during the war.
I assume the least that could have been done by Israel to monitor weapon traffic is set up a network of spies along the syrian border (the only way things/people could get in lebanon durnig the war).
You mean to tell me someone managed to smuggle 750 somaly fighters without raising any eyebrow from anyone?
OK, suppose they could have sent them in some secret way inside lebanon without anyone knowing.
Still, and most importantly, the guys were supposedly sent as "Hardened fighters" and one would expect they were at least seen and maybe some of them killed in combat, no?
How come no israeli soldier noticed/reported that these are probably not lebanese Hizbollah fighters?
After all they did report iranian fighters with Hizballah among those KIA! So they could identify the dead Iranians but not the dead (or living) somalies? Give me a break.
Unless the somalies never fought the Israelis, and none of them died in combat, what were they doing? helping tourism?
I just find it hard to swallow ...
Posted by: Lebanese | Friday, November 17, 2006 at 04:38 AM
Weapons move at night...
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1162378417972&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter
So who needs night vision...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15754715/site/newsweek/
Jay -- I'll get back to you later when I am sure that I am firing on all 8 cylinders. I don't want to risk giving Amir a free shot just yet. = )
Posted by: fubar | Friday, November 17, 2006 at 02:30 PM
fubar,
Since what I write is poetry, you have no right to criticize the Englishness of it.
And it has nothing to do with what I smoke; especial if it is Pakistani Skunk; deep smooth with sweet aroma.
Posted by: Amir from Tel Aviv | Friday, November 17, 2006 at 05:42 PM
Amir,
Pakistani, I thought you said before that it was Afghani hybrid.
"Is this sound to you as a malignant kind of cancer?"
"especial"
Next time, you might want to stick with the out someone gives you, your poetry line doesn't pass the straight face test.
Anyway, I am hungry. Amir (real name), who is Pakistani, and I were just getting ready to go scrounge up some food with Jamel, Lebanese descent. You must be hungry (judging by your English). Meet us at IHOP at 20:20 and I'll buy you an early breakfast. We can discuss the fine points of how "especial" your Pakistani Shunk is. Sorry about IHOP when I'm buying but you can't get into a descent place on a Friday night, we are really hungry, and it was Amir's turn to pick.
See you there or back in bit.
Posted by: fubar | Friday, November 17, 2006 at 07:56 PM
I seriously doubt that Hezbollah had Somali assistance. I would, however, believe that Hezbollah and Somali militants have a working relationship. Most likely, Hezbollah helps train them, and they use Mogadishu as a transit point for weapons headed to Lebanon.
The Syrians might also have a relationship with the Somalis. Syria is trying to set up its own "resistance."
One issue is: if there were so many Africans running around Lebanon during the war, why did no one see them? Why weren't any of them killed? Lebanese are racist enough, and Africans brandishing weapons is uncommon in enough in Lebanon that someone would have started asking questions. The Israelis would also have seen the fighters.
Somalis could have been hidden in the tunnels waiting for hand to hand combat. I doubt, however, that they fired a single katyusha. Given Israeli response time, the missiles had to be fired by people familiar with the terrain who could move quickly from tunnel to launch site and then back to tunnel.
Posted by: Charles Malik | Saturday, November 18, 2006 at 02:23 AM
ONE MAKES IT:
Washington, 17 Nov. (AKI) - Manouchehr Mohammadi, an Iranian student leader who fled his country three months ago, has turned up in Washington where he appeared in public this week. In August, he was given persmission to leave jail to attend the funeral of his brother Akbar, who died in prison in murky circumstances. Akbar and Manouchehr Mohammadi were arrested in July 1999 following violent demonstrations by students at Tehran University. Akbar died on 30 July following a hunger strike he had begun nine days earlier. Defence lawyer, Bahram Khalilian, said there were many unanswered questions concerning Akbar's death.
In a telephone interview from Washington, Manouchehr told Adnkronos International (AKI) he had left "to continue his battle for democracy from abroad."
...
From Iran, Manouchehr Mohammadi fled to Iraqi Kurdistan from where he reached Turkey, and presented a request for political asylum in the United States. However after this had been accepted and he had obtained a visa Mohammedi was arrested by the Turkish police while he boarding a flight to the US.
The student leader accuses Europe and in particular Italy of "thinking too much about its economic interests and almost completely ignoring the requests for democracy of the Iranian people."
"European indifference to the continuous violations of the most fundamental human rights in Iran and the overfriendly relations of some European governments with the regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, not only reinforce daily the political weight of the UN but makes our people feel more and more distant from Europe" he told AKI.
+++++++
AND ONE MAY NOT:
"Iranian dissident Zahra Kamalfar has been living with her children under unspeakable conditions in the transit area of Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport for 73 days. A one-time demonstrator against the extremist theocracy with a lengthy prison sentence, she escaped from an Iranian prison when on a two-day furlough to visit her children. She ended up being buffeted from country to country. Now in imminent danger (possibly Monday, if the Russians cooperate) of being taken back to the Islamic Republic for the Mullah’s version of justice, Ms. Kamalfar speaks out in this dramatic video smuggled out of the airport to Pajamas Media."
see vid at pajamasmedia.com
+++++++
HUGE mistake going to Russia. Sigh...
Posted by: fubar | Saturday, November 18, 2006 at 10:25 PM
Why would Israel be the only target? Wouldn't they be useful against other Lebanese, more so than other Lebanese...
The demonstrations have showned the limitations of using a Lebanese to cow another Lebanese. Syrians, Iranians, Somalis... all could be more useful if you are prepping for another civil war.
Posted by: Jeha | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 03:00 AM
Jay,
I have spent some time thinking and trying to put together a clear analysis in answer to your questions, “is March 14 really in a position to do anything,” “What the hell is March 14's game plan? Just sit and wait?”
I hate to say it but I give up. There is no easy way to answer your questions.
Let me try this simple analogy:
There is a bull in the china shop. He came in while no one was paying attention. He stays because someone is feeding him steroid packed tasty oats. The owners of the china shop don’t want to agitate the bull because, every time they do, he breaks more china. The bull grows in strength and feels more at home in the china shop everyday. The customers have stopped coming in. The shop owners are living on hand outs from well meaning neighbors while everyone looks on in dismay at the china shop. The simple solution, of course, would be to stop the person who is feeding the bull so that the bull leaves in search of food. But the shop owners have no power or leverage over the person feeding the bull who slips in largely undetected in the dark of night and publicly denies feeding the bull. The shop owners are now desperate because they have only two options: abandon the china shop to the bull or try to corral the bull and break much of the china in the process of getting him out. To complicate matters further, while the bull becomes stronger every day, he is also so attached to the person who feeds him that if he were to stop coming the bull will most likely destroy the china shop in a fit of steroid rage.
Under the circumstances, I would say the plan is to protect as much china as possible for as long as possible while waiting for either the inevitable to happen or for a miracle.
Of course the real answer is much more complicated than that. However, in my opinion, it is 1979 all over again, history is repeating itself only in a different geographic location, and you are watching the labor and delivery of a little Persian Islamic statelet.
Point to keep in mind as you watch. Under the Lebanese Constitution, the government is considered resigned if the Prime Minister resigns or if the Prime Minister dies. Article 69(1)(a) & (c).
Article 69 [Government Resignation]
(1) The Government is considered resigned in the following circumstances:
a. if the Prime Minister resigns;
b. if it loses more than a third of the members specified in the Decree forming it;
c. if the Prime Minister dies;
d. at the beginning of the term of the President of the Republic;
e. at the beginning of the term of the Chamber of Deputies;
f. when it loses the confidence of the Chamber of Deputies based on the Chamber's initiative or based on the Council's initiative to gain the Chamber's confidence.(2) Ministers are to be dismissed by a Decree signed by the President and the Prime Minister in accordance with Article 65 of the constitution.
(3) When the Council resigns or is considered resigned, the Chamber of Deputies is automatically considered in extraordinary session until a new Council has been formed and has gained the Chamber's confidence.
Siniora has a huge target painted on his back.
Posted by: fubar | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 01:37 PM
Fubar,
Interesting analogy...
May I add that the china shop owner had been feeding the bull for a dozen years before realizing it can break the shop and trying too late to do something about it :-)
However, I really doubt "siniora has a huge target painted on his back" ... but I guess only time will tell.
Posted by: Anonymous Leb | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 03:21 PM
Lebanon is boiling while Abu Kais is hibernating.
Did you see Hassan today on the recorded TV show in front of a live audience??
Hassan is fascinated with numbers; he likes numbers like a 4 y/o who starts to use them.
"He can summon his followers" in 7 days; but it can be done in 24 hours, or 12 hours, or even 6 hours.
He is fascinated with the number of his missiles as well; is it 10,000 ?..no.. more, much more; is it 13,000?... no. So?
This use of numbers has an implementation in psycho hypnosis; it's called "deepening"; hypnotists use it when they want to strengthen the condition of unawareness.
.
Posted by: Amir from Tel Aviv | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 03:42 PM
Watch English AlJazeera live.
(real player):
http://europarse.real.com/hurl/gratishurl.ram?pid=eu_aljazeera&file=al_jazeera_en_lo.rm
Posted by: Amir from Tel Aviv | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 04:06 PM
Fubar, your china shop example is really depressing. But the shop owner has to do at least something. Ok, maybe he can't confront the bull directly, but perhaps he could try to feed it himself a little and maybe persuade the bull to not break all the china. What I'm saying is that Siniora Government could try to counter the arguments against unconstitutionality of the cabinet somehow, and address the concerns of the opposition. But we haven't heard a peep from the government since monday, while the opposition leaders have been building their case that the cabinet and its approval of the Hariri court were unconstitutional and the current government inefficient. Appointing Shia ministers would be one step to address the constitutionality of the government; establishing an agenda for reconstruction and other programs is another; drafting new electoral law and assuring that it will be in place before 2009 parliamentary elections is third. And most importantly, Siniora should talk to Berri and try to arrange a joint press release establishing that even though the minority is in the opposition, their view points will be heard and carefully considered.
Siniora might have a bullseye in his back but who says that he has to stand still?
Posted by: Jay | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 05:29 PM
I am writing this comment while I consider it myself, so I may be off the mark here but bare with me anyway...
I think it might be a good idea to think of the actions that March 14 takes as a reflection of the personalities of its various leaders. At the helm are Jumblatt, Saad Hariri, Geagea, while the rest are comparatively minor. On the other hand, the manifestation of March 14 as a "ruling party" is via Siniora. Thus, the true leadership (none of whom is in cabinet for example) has the option to be as loud as they please and people like Jumblatt and Geagea and to a lesser extent Hariri tend to be that way. On the other hand, Siniora is a technocrat and businessman turned minister turned prime minister. He works silently, but he delivers.
I guess what I am trying to say is that in the political battle agains HA, this symbiosis, between the loud and the efficient may eventually deliver. Remember that Syria's allies options are escalation and chaos, and they only stand to gain from that. March 14 only stands to lose. Hence the seemingly patient attitude...
Posted by: R | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 06:29 PM
Interesting analogy, fubar.
How about the shop owners fire a tranquilizer dart at the bull? He's gonna break some china while falling, but then he can be removed once and for all?
Posted by: bad vilbel | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 06:53 PM
Interesting Bad Vilbel,
I wonder if thats what March 14 think that they are doing ?!
Posted by: R | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 08:21 PM
Jay,
You say, “Siniora Government could try to counter the arguments against unconstitutionality of the cabinet somehow, and address the concerns of the opposition.”
There is nothing unconstitutional about the current government. Nasrallah is talking shit. The same cabinet exists now as existed before the war. Siniora has not accepted the resignations of the six cabinet ministers who resigned. Technically, they are just on holiday, not appearing for voting. Even if considered resigned, by my count, we still have two more resignations to go before the cabinet cannot function legitimately. So, we carry on with Hezbollah and Amal voluntarily absenting themselves from the cabinet. The cabinet functions as long as 2/3 of the ministers attend and decisions are made by the majority of those attending voting for a decision. All 2/3's attending to make the quorum have to vote for “basic national issues” to pass them [ie., Hariri tribunal].
Article 65 [Council of Ministers-Powers]
(5) The Council of Ministers meets in a locale specifically set aside for it, and the President chairs its meetings when he attends. The legal quorum for a Council meeting is a majority of two thirds of its members. It makes its decisions by consensus. If that is not possible, it makes its decisions by vote of the majority of attending members. Basic national issues require the approval of two thirds of the members of the Council named in the Decree forming the Cabinet. Basic national issues are considered the following:
The amendment of the constitution, the declaration of a state of emergency and its termination, war and peace, general mobilization, international agreements and treaties, the annual government budget, comprehensive and longterm development projects, the appointment of Grade One government employees and their equivalents, the review of the administrative map, the dissolution of the Chamber of Deputies, electoral laws, nationality laws, personal status laws, and the dismissal of Ministers.
++++++
No Shia will take the place of resigned Hezbollah and Amal members so there is no point in going there. And if Siniora changes the makeup of the cabinet, he needs Lahoud’s approval. Not happening.
Article 53 [Additional Presidential Powers]
4. He [The President] issues, in agreement with the Prime Minister, the decree appointing the Cabinet and the decrees accepting the resignation of Ministers.
++++++
BTW, who says Siniora is standing still? The china shop owners must do something. They must prepare to protect and salvage as much china as possible. I will just throw it out for your consideration, think Kurdistan. Curiously, no one pays attention as certain prominent Lebanese trip off to Kurdistan.
Oh, and Berri is useful, but he is not a friend and is not to be trusted.
Bad Vilbel,
I intentionally left the tranquilizer dart out of my scenario. So, jumping out of the analogy, how do you tranquilize the bull and remove him once and for all? Unfortunately, the bull is Hezbollah, not just Nasrallah.
Posted by: fubar | Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 10:14 PM
Fubar, I suppose you're right about the fact that accepting the resignations is not feasible. But still, if the cabinet is constitutional as you say, the March 14 "loudmouths" should be hammering this point in. It's no use if it's rationalized on some English-language blogs. The pro-Syrian camp argues that not having Shia in the cabinet violates the preamble of the constitution. If this is shit talk, then it should be exposed. The Government in particular could refer the case to a constitutional court or an expert group of judges to decide, thus addressing the opposition's stated concern over constitutionality of the cabinet as well as solidifying March 14 as the party that wishes to uphold the constitution.
Posted by: Jay | Monday, November 20, 2006 at 02:34 AM
Preamble -- "j. There is no constitutional legitimacy for any authority which contradicts the 'pact of communal coexistence'."
Move it into the courts. Now there is an idea.
Question for you. If the government is not constitutionally legal, why has Nasrallah not gone to the Courts? Why talk about demonstrations in the streets when he could go to the courts for a ruling. Because it is the voluntary withdraw of Hezbollah and Amal which threatens "communal coexistence", not the government and certainly not the cabinet. Nasrallah has created the very situation he seeks to claim to be a violation of the constitution. And that is not the way any justice system works, too bad for Nasrallah, but does not come to the court with clean hands.
Why doesn't March 14 take it to the courts? Because they know that they are right and taking it to the courts only gives the appearance that they are not sure and undermines their legitimacy in the meantime.
As for blog discourse -- you cannot argue constitutional points of law with "the masses." The masses hear the point of view they want to hear from the source they want to hear it from - same the world over.
Nasrallah is just putting a constitutional spin on his rant to fool his masses. How many Hez supporters parrot back whatever he says? How many will die believing everything he says?
Posted by: fubar | Monday, November 20, 2006 at 02:50 AM
Fubar, Hez supporters would follow their leader regardless of the constitutional spin. But the Shia are just one third of the population (if Youssef Dwayh's figures are accurate) and that includes Amal; the reason behind the "spin" is to fool the rest of the people, if not to change their opinions entirely then to soften them up and paint the Siniora cabinet as the instigators of the crisis.
As for using courts, well, you're maybe right that it would just be another big ball of mud. What I'm thinking of is more of a formal declaration or an expert statement that the cabinet is constitutional, which would draw the rug under Lahoud's and Hezbollah's feet. Another thing to bolster the cabinet's credibility would be if they were to proceed working as usual, preferably with uncontroversial programs that would paint the pro-Syrian majority in bad light if they were to publicly oppose them. I'm sure there are reconstruction projects that could be highlighted in this manner.
Posted by: Jay | Monday, November 20, 2006 at 05:39 AM
Jay,
Yes, well, perhaps you are right, true Hez supporters would follow their leader regardless of the constitutional spin. But the Shia (Hez and Amal) suffered during the war and so Hez still needs to make them feel that it is fighting, now internally, for them. And yes, the constitutional argument is an attempt to pull others into doubting March 14. But the way Lebanon works, that is really not going to happen.
Bottom line, it is mumbo jumbo meant to conceal his real agenda. It is so Ahmadinejad.
I don't think Hez would accept any "expert" legal opinion. They will just throw mud at the experts.
But you are right about the cabinet having to continue working. The more they continue to work, the more the country understands that they are functioning, legally, and for the good of the country. But Lebanon is like an alternate universe where nothing happens fast in government. So working normally is not likely to have "showable" immediate results of the sort you are speaking of. And, that is why Nasrallah is giving it no time. He is escalating so that he keeps constant pressure on March 14 and keeps them constantly playing defense.
March 14 needs to play offense, about that you are absolutely right.
Posted by: fubar | Monday, November 20, 2006 at 12:06 PM
There are ways to remove the bull. but ultimately, you're right in that the main problem is the hand that feeds him. As long as there is someone sneaking in to the store and sprinkling it with good grain feed, there's always gonna be bulls coming in to eat.
Posted by: bad vilbel | Monday, November 20, 2006 at 01:04 PM
Somalian malitias is good fighters,, we wana kill the stupid israels thats why we come lebanon to help Hizbollah, we also hope to help Syrians if US comes there
Posted by: somali fighter | Wednesday, December 06, 2006 at 01:06 PM