A battle and a tribunal

The battle for Lebanon right now centers on the tribunal that will bring the killers of Hariri and others to justice. The court’s local and foreign opponents are stopping at nothing to block its formation, including assassinating members of the cabinet that will approve the plan.

It’s almost like a game of chess. After the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, March 14 cannot afford to lose any more ministers. If one more is killed or resigns, the cabinet will lose the quorum required by the constitution.  For that, Siniora has reportedly turned the government building into temporary sleeping quarters for the remaining ministers, who will be barred from leaving the building until a session is held to approve the plan, possibly as early as Monday. After the funeral today, and if they all make it back to the Serail safely, it would require blowing up the government headquarters to stop the cabinet session form taking place.

The next step is for parliament to convene, and this requires Nabih Berri to call for a session. Jumblatt is wondering whether this will happen.

Addressing Berri, a Hizbullah ally, Jumblat asked: "Are you going to call for a parliament session to endorse the establishment of the international court?" once Lebanon receives the document from the U.N. Security Council.

"For the sake of national unity and stability, parliament should convene," Jumblat urged.

If the majority of MPs sign a petition calling for the parliament to convene, even without the president of the republic issuing that call, Berri will be forced to call for a session. (the legality of all this to be settled). It is not clear at this point if Berri is prepared to preside over such a session, something that could probably cost him his life. In any case, Berri’s assassination is an option that the Syrian regime is probably mulling over, should they need to disrupt parliament.

History will probably be made again in Lebanon on November 23. Sadly, the catalyst is another political assassination. But masks will continue to fall and true patriots will emerge. Jumblatt today indirectly accused Nasrallah of being an accomplice in the assassination because of the defamation campaign and incitement against March 14 figures—from calling them devils to putting up posters in town squares accusing them of being Israeli agents and labeling them “rabbis”.  Hizbullah’s (and Aoun's) smear campaign that preceded the assassination, is similar to the one waged by Lahoud’s people prior to Hariri assassination.

Jumblatt asked Nasrallah to stop those campaigns. I could sense that he nearly insinuated that the tribunal could find him guilty by association if he continues down that path. Perhaps that’s what scares the pro-Syrian parties in Lebanon. The tribunal could bring the rule of law into a lawless country. And if that happens, everyone from Nasrallah to Berri will be called to the stand. 

And what would become of Nasrallah’s honor if he is asked to testify before a tribunal, especially if it takes place in another country?

Finally, this being a survival battle for the Assad regime, and also a battle of wills in which the US is a major player, pundits may want to draw a valuable lesson from what is happening in Lebanon. Killers should not be rewarded, and a regime like Assad’s practices dialogue by establishing new facts on the ground and eliminating pressure cards that could be used against them.  Killing opponents is essentially how Assad talks. So, and in light of rumored openings towards Syria, I hope everyone becomes aware of that, especially Tony Blair and the new group of advisors that are roaming the beleaguered White House.

Comments

[Lazarus]

Killers should not be rewarded.

Exactly.

[fubar]

The UNSC has approved Siniora's request for UN assistance in investigating Pierre Gemayel's assassination. Same investigator as the Hariri, et al., case. There was virtually no discussion, all 15 agreed immediately.

But that is just one more reason for Hez and the other pro-Syrian traitors to oppose the tribunal. I am not holding my breath, but this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back and breaks Aoun away from Hez and Amal. He is naturally anti-Syrian and has asked the FPMers to attend the Gemayel funeral. If they turn out in force, it could turn into a show a solidarity (as opposed to an opportunity for violence against FPMers). Unfortunately, if Aoun turns away from Hez and Syria, he will be signing his own death warrant. So the question is -- is Aoun willing to pay the price for the cost of freedom?

Finally, do not sell the US short. Bush and Bolton have been relentlessly resolute in support of both the tribunal and Siniora's govt. in Lebanon, to the point of being caustic to those in opposition. Leave the rank speculation, innuendo, and false accusations to Nasrallah and his ilk.

[JoseyWales]

-It's unfortunate that our leaders won't and can't act before catastrophes happen, and even then we get 2 days of empty gestures and then nothing.

-Lahoud must go NOW, for a zillion reasons but at least so that ministers can be replaced and killing them won't work.

[Not In My name]

Words cannot express the sorrow I feel as a mother. My thoughts and prayers with the family of Pierre Jemayel.

It is time for the Lebanese to stop the empty rhetorics, and blaming the "others" and begin working together. A sly fox will be stupid not to take advantage of the internal hatred and chaos each and everyone is creating from both Christians and Muslims, with their 18 different sects.

Love each other as much as you love Lebanon. The world, only then will bow in shame to your unity.

Second independence, America, Iran, Syria and the charitable state of Israel and France are in a race to settle their differences on the expense of your disunity and hatred of one another.

we are all watching.