Who made Berri president?

Berri's "initiative" sowed confusion in the ranks of the March 14 movement, with some seeing it as a trap, and others seeing the proposed talks as the only option available to Berri to spare the country sectarian warfare. Most of the March 14 leaders are united in that the agenda needs to be changed, with some willing to participate in the hopes that maybe the more crucial issues could be broached during the course of the dialogue.

Berri's call for "consultations" not only smells like a trap, but like a coup d'etat. Berri says that sparing the country civil strife is the job of everyone, yet he doesn't try to exact any compromises from his own allies. The criminalization campaign waged by Hizbullah following the July war is fueling much of the unrest between Sunnis and Shias. Limiting the agenda to discussing ways to basically peacefully topple the Siniora government supports the Hizbullah-Aoun argument that the stubbornness of this government will bring destruction to the country.

In that context, Berri's 15-day limit, and the invitation he sent to the majority to basically discuss the best way for their peaceful demise under the threat of civil unrest is at worst an ultimatum, and at best an assumption of a role Berri, constitutionally at least, has no business playing. As a parliament speaker, he should be concerned with running the parliament, accepting (and not ignoring) petitions by the majority to hold extraordinary sessions to pass important legislation, and yes, discuss the performance of the cabinet within the walls of the parliament. During his press conference yesterday, he dangled a carrot to the majority by promising to activate parliamentary committees to discuss the economy in light of the upcoming Paris 3. This is reminiscent of the arrangement the Syrians once made with Rafik Hariri: you handle the economy and we handle the rest. We all know how that arrangement ended up, and where it left Hariri.

Berri is riding a high wave courtesy of a fabled role he played during the Israeli war, and because of aggrandizement of stature courtesy of March 14, who put him on a pedestal out of spite for Hizbullah. Berri's stature among Shias may also have risen, but he has not taken off his Hizbullah cloak, nor can he. Even if he wanted to, he will never become what March 14 wants him to become: a national leader who understands that an elected majority has the right to at least set the parliament's agenda.

Berri, who at one point refused to hold a parliament session in honor of Samir Kassir, a brave and inspirational journalist killed by Syrian intelligence, has gained a lot from the weakening of the presidency. Lahoud has been reduced to a Syrian mouthpiece, with no real weight in political circles, except to use whatever prerogatives he has to obstruct the appointments of judges and security officials. Berri, however, acts like the country's de-facto president.  This is not only a result of March 14's misguided faith in him, but also the consequence of Michel Aoun's obsessive behavior. By obstructing the removal of Lahoud and the election of a new president, Aoun, perhaps unwittingly, allowed Hizbullah and Berri to get comfortable in the seat vacated by the Syrian intelligence, which played the role of both instigator and broker.

Hizbullah wasted little time in accepting Berri's initiative. Whatever political defeat they suffered during the war is being reclaimed for them by Berri, who at the end cannot afford to divorce them. Hizbullah and Berri also enjoy strong support by the Shia community, which they nearly own. The few dissenters among the Shia stand little chance to challenge Berri and Hizbullah. Voices like Ali Al Amin and others are savagely fought and marginalized by Berri, who views them as a threat, and Hizbullah's own religious scholars usually take care of rebuking their statements.

This Shia duo is gaining power at a frightening speed, and they are not intimidated by the number of deputies March 14 has in parliament. Their enemy is any international resolution that could weaken their grasp. The Hariri tribunal and anti-Syrian UN resolutions would hurt them as much as they would hurt the Assad regime. It is high time March 14 woke up to this fact and calculated accordingly. 

Every day, March 14 leaders watch the rug being pulled from under their feet, whether by this duo's maneuvering, or by pro-Syrian parties seeking to weaken the positions of the different leaders within their own sects.

A case in point is what's happening in the Sunni community. All the former Sunni prime ministers, many of them abject failures, have created a grouping whose job is to criticise the current government and essentially act as mouthpiece for Assad. Just yesterday, Saad Hariri accused Syrian intelligence of waging a campaign against the Sunni mufti, after the latter appointed a Mufti for the Akkar region, where many Islamists are believed to dwell. The appointment sparked fury among pro-Syrian Sunnis, who view the Mufti as a Hariri ally. Hariri has been trying to reclaim the Sunni community and consolidate his leadership, and so is the Mufti.  Syrian intelligence had turned the Mufti into a powerless figurehead, and sponsored many Islamist parties and installed them in mosques in Beirut and other areas. A strong Sunni leader always spelled trouble for the Assad regime. Saad Hariri's recent success in winning over the Jamaa Islamiya was a blow to the Syrians, who are now encouraging defection from the Islamist party. Al-Mustaqbal now quotes al-Jamaa almost daily, and most of the time the positions are very similar to Siniora's. 

Jumblatt had to fight a similar battle in his Druze community, and has recently succeeded in dethroning the pro-Syrian Sheikh Aql. As for the Maronites, Aoun has taken care of turning the diversity of that community into a curse.

It is easy to view what is happening in Lebanon as a battle between sects, or sectarian leaders. But there are also battles occurring within every sect, many of them instigated and directed by the Syrian regime, which is expert at directing intra-sectarian and inter-sectarian conflicts in the country. The real and final battle is over Lebanon, its identity and future role in the region.

Berri has successfully pushed March 14 into a corner. It is unlikely that he will agree to change the agenda to at least include the presidency and the so called defense strategy that led the country to ruin. Those in March 14 who believe that they could broach these topics during the discussion will be opposed by those who strongly believe that this is another Syrian-sponsored trap. Already, Walid Jumblatt will probably not attend, and is scheduled to be in the US, meeting with Rice, Cheney and speaking at the Woodrow Wilson Center on Tuesday. Geagea has voiced his disappointment, and Hariri's paper, al-Mustaqbal, has described the initiative as something woven out of Hizbullah and Syria's web of demands. Hariri's and March 14's final position is still to be determined, and is also contingent on the Saudi position, which so far seems to be in favor of Berri's initiative.

March 14 should not feel intimidated by Berri's fears of civil war. He, as a party to this conflict, is responsible for controlling his "street". After all, it was his followers who brandished weapons to fight Sunnis in a mixed Beirut neighborhood last month. A full-fledged civil war cannot take place without his and Hizbullah's consent and instigation. For all that, Hariri and co. should spend less time publicly admiring Berri's non-existent statesman qualities, and stop thinking that by doing so they are appeasing a street that's being infllamed by Berri's own allies anyway. They have to accept the fact that the speaker plays for the opposite team. If March 14 can't, at the very least, introduce a topic of discussion into a "consultative" session, then they might as well hand the country back to Assad.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Excellent analysis, Abu Kais. As usual. I'm afraid our worst fears are coming to pass. The march 14 leadership is fumbling, yet again, and looks poised to play right into the hands of Syria-Hezbollah.

[e]

Abu Kais,
To outsiders like me that are getting more and more confused, could you please explain what are Berri's short term goals and what are his long term goals?
e

[LebExile]

The request from Berri for another round of talks is of course a stalling tactic from the pro Syrians to pretty much put the entire country on hold, strengthen the pro-Syria camp, and make it look like the March 14 group cannot run the country.

Take the results of the previous national dialogue. In that dialogue, they discussed the Hariri tribunal, agreed on that - obviously the march 14 group would not budge on that, and so, as not to stop the entire process, they had to agree on that.

Secondly, the Palestinian arms in the camps - well, given that there were several incidents involving those same palestinian arms at the time, you couldn't but look like a traitor if you were to disagree to something. By the way, where are they upto in the disarming of the camps - the last time I read about it - Hizbollah was storing their weapons in said camps as the Lebanese army cannot enter them.

Then there is the issue of the Presidency and Hezbollah arms... well, needless to say, they would not agree to these at all.
The President stayed in his post, and the Hezbollah started a war to show that they cannot lay down their weapons.

Now these talks, Berri wants the March 14 group to create a national unity government.... Am I missing something here .. Isn't this guy the speaker of the same parliament where these people meet.

If they are unhappy with the make up of the current parliament, they can call for a confidence vote, if the current govt passes such a confidence vote, then they get to stay in, if not, then, yes, we can hold elections and elect a new government.

And why is Berri pushing for these extra-Parliamentry meetings in the first place. Is he trying to do away with the parliament, and change the entire systems of government. Who are these people who are making these decisions for the country - did we elect them.

I think that the march 14 group should tell Berri that we tried with these dialogues but, we would rather meet through the Parliament were minutes are taken, and everything is documented.

If Berri want to have extra-Paliamentry meeting, then he is free to do so, and with whoever he wishes, but to have national issues discussed and decided on at such meeting is the most underhand and deceptive initiative by the pro-Syrian groups by far.

A very long time ago, I would say that I probably wasn't a supporter of Aoun, but I admired him and his stands on many issues - especially when he was in exile, but, since he has returned, he has turned into the most unprincipaled, coniving, backstabbing politician I have had the misfortune of knowing.

I dont think that these people should be sitting at a round table discussing national issues, we supposedly have a parliament to do that... and the is what Berri should be advocating..

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

Now I'm confused...
Isn't Hariri a Sunni?
And, who actually represents the Sunnis in Lebanon?
.

[Jeha]

Abu Kais,

An excellent analysis. Though I think you somewhat miss one Christian perspective, and a key reason behind Aoun's popularity.

Most feel FutureMovement has usurped March 14, and tried to sideline them:

1- They have not "digested" the deal made by Saad, Joumblat, with Berri and Hezb to form the current government.

2- Saad keeps after Berri, in spite of this guy's clear allegiance. To many Christians, this "inter-moslem" solidarity is suspicious. They cannot stomach that Saad has forgotten that many of the mourners are his father's funeral were Druze and Christians. The Sunni crowds showed up later on.

In this respect, while a great many have a distaste for Aoun's megalomania, most hate even more being taken for fools. I recall posters plastered in some areas of Beirut that said "Fakhamat Al-Rais Ghattas Khoury"... Few fought to replace crook who sold out lebanon by another such a low-level crook.

Arrogance is a typical lebanese sin; it has been a mistake of Aoun, a mistake those who cling to "March 8" keep making, but also one that those who call themselves "March 14" have comitted.

They all forget that all Lebanon was at March 14. Or they fear the real power of Lebanon's silent, secular majority....

Amir,

Lebanon is as much clanic as it is Confessional. Sometimes they go in pair, sometimes they interesect. In this case, a "Beiruti" clan is facing a "dennyeh/akkar" clan, whithin the greater Sunni community; they group themselves around Karameh and get Syrian support (the same Syrians who would kill them in a heartbeat if they spread to Syria; recall Hama)...

. Note that Hariri is viewed by many other Beirutis are a "parvenu" from Saida; those are the "m3afnin" grouped around Hoss...

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

Thank you Jeha.
Even a dictionary couldn't help me to understand what you say.
.

[Jeha]

Amir,

Sorry if that sounded confusing. But it really is a mess of clans, ideologies, business interests, and family feuds...

Look up "Hatfields and McCoys", then lookup "dragonnade" or "hugenots"... Then combine those in your mind; try to think of a single person with all those characteristics.

Then take an aspirin; you can now "relate" to us, in Lebanon.

[JoseyWales]

Jeha,

You say about the Christians/Aounists:

1- They have not "digested" the deal made by Saad, Joumblat, with Berri and Hezb to form the current government

And so their response is tolerate/support HA and Berri?

That does not make sense unless they are only interested in spite at the cost of the coutry's destruction (a high probability in Lebanon).

[charlie]

Jeha,

Those alliances you speak off were an unfortunate by product of the electoral law that governed the last parliamentary elections. In any case political alliances in democracies are a natural thing. Israel is an example of how in many cases in order to form a cabinet, many strange alliances may take place in order to get the vote of confidence they need. One thing is interesting in the Lebanese cabinet formation is the continuous presence of members of a political party who is no longer in an alliance with the other group when the government was initially formed, in this case it is HA and Amal. This practice is strange since it brings paralysis to the executive branch which in turn puts the country in a deep freeze.

Aoun used a clever scare tactic to hijack the Christian street, he even managed to deceive Patriarch Sfier during the last election with his head fake, that resulted in a costly defeat for some of the Qornet al-shahwan candidates. If his supporters don’t like being taken for fools, I bet they feel like crap right now and should all be protesting his presence as a false representative to their ideals!! Don’t you think? Or do you mean to say they hate Harriri so much that HA and Iran is the way to go!!! I hope it is not the case, cause that will be the most childish, spiteful politics I had ever seen and it will lead to one and only one thing: the destruction of Lebanon and all the Lebanese…

Now you say all of Lebanon was at March 14, I beg to differ HA and Amal were not in March 14. And since then Aoun has joined them, so he should be looked at as yet another member of the other group supporting their agenda, which is Syrian occupation and subordination to Iran at the expense of the Lebanese identity. It also disqualifies him from ever being a president of an independent Lebanon

[fubar]

Father says national unity government, unified behind the Shia, of course, is the way to go and not to worry as Father is holding the civil war card.

TEHRAN, Oct 28 (ISNA)-Iran's ambassador to Lebanon in an interview with ISNA, defined Iran's behavior and approach toward the various groups of this country "father like".

"The Islamic Republic of Iran's policy is connecting to the current movements of Lebanon and strengthening relations and unity among them," said Mohammad Raouf Shibani.

This official went on to emphasize on unity as the most important and required issue in Lebanon and commented that this fact should be preserved and protected.

"Of Course the U.S. and Israel are trying to damage this unity; they are trying to damage the unity established among Shiite and other groups," Shibani explained.

"If it wasn't for the Shiite unison many matters would occur in Lebanon; but it does exist and the Islamic Republic of Iran is aiding it," he said.

Iran's ambassador to Beirut regarding the probability of another war in this country said that although conditions were most fragile, but the possibility of another war was very low.

This official emphasized that the current society of Lebanon required a national government so that all groups could effectively play a role in the country's future.

Mohammad Raouf Shibani also referred to the vast presence of UNIFEL forces in Southern Lebanon as a clear sign of Israel's weakness.

"The Zionist's military was recognized as an undefeatable force in the region, but after its defeat Israel was devastated," he said.

[JoseyWales]

Fubar,

Iran's ambassador to Lebanon ....defined Iran's behavior and approach toward the various groups of this country "father like".

Maybe fans can start referring to Iran from now on as the "fatherland".

[fubar]

Josey,

You mean they don't already? Damn, another break down in the communication chain again. Arghh.

But on to more serious matters...

Does Lahoud really have to play Father Ahmadinejad in the movie?

Might I suggest......

wait for it....

Borat!

Yes, I know he is not Lebanese, but he is not Kazakh either and he will make the movie an instant success and really piss off Iran in the process.

[Anon in Beirut]

Abu Kias,

I could not agree more with your analysis.

I am wondering though, where your "Hizballah is finished" speeches have gone to that were around at the end of the war.

I only dropped in to say I told you so, although I am really sad to be saying it.

[George]

Swiss TV (Television Suisse Romande) in the service of Hizbullah propaganda with the herlp of an ex murderess in the service of Syrian Mukhabarat.
La TSR fait la propagande du Hizbullah

L’émission Temps Présent de jeudi passé est une véritable ode au terrorisme:

http://www.tsr.ch/tsr/index.html?siteSect=500071&bcid=454687&format=450&vid=7199478

Soha Bechara, is a Lebanese woman, member of the Lebanese Communist party operating under directions of the Syrian regime(*) who, at the age of twenty one, attempted to assassinate General Antoine Lahad of the SLA.
She wrote a book which is banned in Switzerland but is sold freely in Paris in Arab Islamist circles as a terrorist manual propaganda.


(*)

Arab Organizations. The Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), founded in 1932, enthusiastically approves of Syrian President Assad, because his goals coincide with its own plans to establish a single Syrian state covering the present territories of Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan. Syrian backing permits the SSNP to control a portion of Lebanese territory to the south of Tripoli. Together with the Ba'th Party of Lebanon and the Lebanese Communist Party, it carried out nearly all of the fifteen suicide attacks against Israeli and South Lebanon Army troops that occurred in 1985.

[R]

George,

Suha Bechara, as you pointed out is a communist not a member of ssnp, while your footnote is dedicated to ssnp. The communists were not under the directions of the mukhabarat, while part of the ssnp was (which is why they later split into two)... Add to that, the communist were on very bad terms with the Syrians for quite a while in the beginning, middle and end of the civil war...
I want to go on, but i feel its not worth it, so I won't ...

[Abu Kais]

Anon- when and in what context did I say "Hizbullah is finished"?

[Ghassan Karam]

Lebanon has decided not to send representatives to the Young Democracies Conference in Doha Qatar. The obvious reason is the participation in the conference of the state of Israel which has sent its foreign minister Ms. Levy to attend and participate in the deliberations of this gathering of 68 different countries.

The Lebanese government is one more time acting as if its oresence is not important, as if it is not in charge of its destiny and as if it is a government run by a group of immature and childish group. Lebanon is free to take any position that it sees fit vis a vis the state of Israel but to refuse to attend an important gathering only because the Israeli representative is going to be there is height of imbecility. If the same logic is to be applied then Lebanon should not have sent a representative to the UN Security Council discussions last August.

What is even more frustrating is that the Conference in question is being hosted by a fellow Arab country and that many other Arab countries will be in attendance. Why the double standards? Is it that All Arab Countries are Equal But Some Are More Equal Than Others? (With apologies to George Orwell). Why does the Lebanese governemnt accept being treated as a second class citizen by the other Arab countries who set different standards of behaviour for themselves. Why is the Lebanese government constantly reminding all who would listen that "Lebanon will be the Last Arab country to normalize relatios with Israel"? Isn't the Lebanese government capable of deciding foritself whether it is in its national interest to adopt a policy or not adopt it? What kind of a logic dictates that a governments approval or disapproval of a set of actions is to be dictated by foreign capitals? The clear answer to all of the above is that the governement of Lebanon is not worthy of that name and that it is time to either stand up for sovereignty and independence or just put an end to this charade called Lebanon. Can we at least agree that it is NOT a country because it does not act like one.

[Bad Vilbel]

I find it very telling, when the commenter LebExile asks why on earth these politicians seem to be circumventing the system, bypassing Parliament and every other state institution to run this country "by committee".

This is hitting on the crux of the problem. As Ghassan Karam has stated time and again, THAT is the problem with Lebanon, first and foremost. Not Israel, Syria, the US, or Iran. Here we have a country who's so-called leaders make decisions outside of the framework of any legal institution (The Parliament, the Council of Ministers, etc.) and blatantly bypass these state institutions, and the constitution and legality these offices represent and uphold. This is not Democracy. This is not even a semblance of Democracy. And as long as this blatant disregard for the State (with a capital 'S') continues, there is no such thing as an independent and sovereign Lebanon.

[jeha]

JoseyWales, charlie,

I do not necessarily disagree with your objections. My point is not to justify Aoun's suicidal attitude. My point is only to explain it.

If we Lebanese were any smarter, we would have not fallen into the Civil War trap in the first place. Instead, we have destroyed ourselves in a series of "tit-for-tar" poilitics; "an-eye-for-an-eye" has left us all blind to the consequences of our actions, and our country rudderless.

[JoseyWales]

Jeha,

I know it's not your view but I still find it hard to believe that tit-fo-tat is the main motivation. Are we this stupid? OK, don't answer that.

BV is right the crux boils down to trashing the law (in the small and large sense), and trashing the institutions: the bases of society. No society can function properly like that. Law, sovereignty, treason etc are all meaningless concepts in Lebanon.

[George]

Thanks for the correction. Who do you think provided her with arms and directed her. Her parents reside in Deir Mimas. We know their address. So do Antoine Lahad's people in Israel. This account is far from being closed. She will pay the price of her Treachery even if she sits now in the comfort of Geneva and tries to make out of herself a bug heroine.

[Anon in Beirut]

Abu Kias

"The way I see it, Hizbullah’s reign is over, whether they realize it or not, and whether those pundits claiming Hizbullah victory know it or not. This senseless war may not have finished them off militarily, but whatever Hizbullah has gained within its own community was lost with Sunnis, Christians and Druze, and I should add, sensible Shias."

Taken from Why Hizballah Lost, August 18th.

" I am not of the opinion that Hizbullah has emerged victorious politically in Lebanon. Despite having warned about such a prospect, this argument is not sustainable by the amount of damage their unilateralism has brought."

Same Post

"I will say that the day of reckoning has come for Hizbullah. While, unfortunately, it won’t be at the hands of the Shia, at least not now, it will come from the rest of the Lebanese people who cannot afford to live under their obscurantist rhetoric."

Same Post

I think that it is reasonably fair to say that "I am not of the opinion that Hizbullah has emerged victorious politically in Lebanon." cannot be missunderstood or taken out of context, nor can "Hizballah's reign is over.."

Like I said, while I agree completely with this post, it seems I am not as surprised as you are that Berri has come up with such a cunning plan to bring Hizballah and Aoun out on top (along with himself of course).

Really the sheer brilliance of it does have to be marvelled. Call for a national dialogue about a subject that should not need any discussion (replacement of a democratically elected government with one that is not so). If March 14 fail to participate then brand them as triators and bring on the street violence using their non participation as an excuse. Ditto if March 14 fail to agree to the dialogues "suggestions".
Set a 15 day limit and refuse to discuss anything else important like the Presidency or the fact that the things Hizballah agreed to at the National Dialogue have not been implemented.

Really, the only way out of this I can see for the Government Majority (March 14th)is to refuse to attend the "talks" and take their chances on the street. Or stonewall at the talks and take their chances on the street......

[R]

George,

Who the hell is "We"? Also "Treachery" is in the eye of the beholder, hence the first question.

[Abu Kais]

Anon-- I still don't see where I said they were finished. They lost a lot of political capital after July 12, which is why I said what I said. That is why they are putting on a fight now, and a fierce one. And I wasn't that surprised by Berri, although I may have briefly believed what he said prior to announcing his initiative. March 14, however, proved to be naive yet again.

Regardless, I agree with your conclusion that March 14 should "take their chances on the street." If they don't fight this one, the country will lose. As I said in my post, they should not be intimidated, or feel like they have to make a compromise. The time of compromises is over.

[Hassan-]

George,
How chivalrous and noble of you, you know where her parents live. That's alright, at least i can make sure interpol has a lead if anything happens to the old couple :)
As for the unsettled account, too bad she couldn't put an end to it back in 1988. Yalla, enjoy the Antoine's falafel.

[Bad Vilbel]

George's comment is a perfect example of the stupid tit for tat alluded to earlier in this thread.

[jeha]

Anon, AbuKais,

I agree with Abu Kais; Syria's allies has much less "power" on the street than they think.

Hezb is cornered, and that is why they are putting up quite the fight. It's "Divine Victory" was nothing but a "morphine shot"; witness the damp squiq that was thier later "Day of Al-Quds" rally. For a party that made mass rallies a routine affair, not being able to gather the troops is a significant setback.

Still, Hezb remains a powerful force; its organisation makes up for much lost ground. Indeed, many of his own supporters recognize that the 12,000 USD were nothing but a drop in the bucket for people who lost more than 200,000 USD, on average. But many are hoping for more to come, as Berri has extracted an additional drop of money from the Lebanese government. A payout not appreciated by many Christians and some Sunnis of the mountain, who got far less, and far too late...

An interesting note; Syria is "paying" some of its key supporters. For a regime that has been used to getting its way free, or even making some money from it, this is another sign of weakness... Even some of their most solid supporters admit this privately; the Syrians are not playing in their court; Cash for Cash, they cannot hope to fight Hariri and the Saudis.