Who wants to rule Lebanon? (updated)

Hizbullah is holding an unlicensed rally on Friday, which is expected to attract hundreds of thousands of their supporters celebrating their “divine victory” over Israel. The Lebanese Interior Ministry, which normally issues permits for such mass gatherings, has not even been approached or asked for permission. Security for this rally will be handled by Hizbullah, the militia that many still insist is not a state within a state.

Meanwhile, acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat told The Daily Star on Wednesday that the organizers of Friday's rally had not "asked for permission or for a license from the Interior Ministry to hold such a rally."  Rally organizers are required to ask for permission to do so from the Interior Ministry and submit information on the nature of the gathering, who will be attending and the location for the demonstration and routes to be used. Once a license is given, the Interior Ministry puts in place security measures to prevent any clashes that may arise between attendants or rabble rousers. Fatfat said the ministry "will not seek a confrontation [on the lack of such a license] ... but there are procedures that the organizers must follow."

Hizbullah’s “media officer”, Hajj Rahal, told the Daily Star that his party coordinated with the Defense Ministry on “security and traffic flow.” Yes, the defense ministry is now coordinating traffic flow with a militia.

Fatfat, you will recall from a previous post, had acknowledged that his ministry has been unable to exercise control over the various security agencies in the country, which are infiltrated by Hizbullah, Amal and Syrian intelligence. This has caused some concern with UNIFIL, which complained that the people handling security in the country have not changed since the Syrian era, and that much vital information such as names of people entering and leaving Lebanon by land, air and sea are still sent to Hizbullah, Amal and naturally, Syrian intelligence.

Fatfat tried this week to address the UNIFIL concerns and, no, not by removing some people from power, but through creating a mechanism by which all agencies attached to his ministry can exchange and share information. The minister issued resolution 2403 creating a committee to work on establishing an electronic database accessible by the various departments and agencies, including General Security (which controls the nation’s ports of entry and keeps records of visitors and hotel residents), and the directorate of personal status, department of motor vehicles, and the directorate of Palestinian refugees affairs.

These agencies, all theoretically falling under the authority of the interior ministry, together control sensitive information about Lebanese citizens and the activities at the border, the ports and the airports. During the Syrian era, the General Security directorate was the most powerful of them all, controlled by Jamil Al-Sayyed, now in jail suspected of playing a role in the Hariri assassination.

Naturally, no real investigation into any security incident in the country can take place without some information sharing between those agencies, something that is not taking place, due mostly to reluctance on part of the those agencies to release and share information with internal security and the ministry, now controlled by March 14. The Interior Ministry’s new intelligence branch, whose head was nearly assassinated recently, was in part an attempt to create a security body loyal to the minister. But the ministry is still in need of full access to vital information, or at least it needs to make sure that some of this information is secured. You may remember how Brammertz in his last report filled a couple of pages describing the inefficiency of Lebanon’s security agencies and their inability to solve crimes—every single investigation into the assassinations that took place since Marwan Hamadeh had come to halt. Evidence is tampered with, information is hidden and nobody seems to know who is in control. 

Fatfat’s automation project was quickly labeled as a coup by the pro-Syrian media, and Nabih Berri has vetoed it, saying that “these matters don’t work with us and we will not agree.” Fatfat, who over the past two days, has been defending his decision to automate information sharing (by doing this, he forces it to happen), accused “some” of trying to “assassinate him politically” and vowed to go ahead with it and shut down the “security shops” in his ministry. He went as far as accusing some of the security officials in those agencies of “leaking information” in exchange for money or for political reasons.

Berri is worried that the Interior Ministry’s intelligence branch (literally translated as information branch) would gain more power, and wants it to answer to General Security, headed by Wafiq Jizzini. According to al-Mustaqbal, Jizzini has recently refused to attend a meeting at the Interior Ministry to regulate and automate the entry process of Syrian nationals into the country. He also reportedly declined to meet with Prime Minister Siniora and ignored a written request by Fatfat to show up at the ministry within 30 minutes.

Friday’s show will be a reminder that this government is not in control. The people who will accuse the government of treason continue snubbing the state’s institutions, taking unilateral decisions on behalf of the entire population, and sharing sensitive security information with their foreign allies. I would like to believe that Siniora and Fatfat will fight this one out to the end. There are signs that they are. UNIFIL is one way they are doing it, and there are indications that Siniora will be counting on them where the country’s own security services will fail (perhaps intentionally). Hizbullah’s officials are unhappy with the mandate given to the German naval force that will monitor Lebanese waters. And the heavy French weapons are also a sign that this government is serious about disengaging the south from Hizbullah’s conflicts. But UNIFIL can only do so much. The real fight is internal, and tough decisions have to be made. Maybe 2403 is the magic number. My guess is that it isn’t, and one of the reasons is a March 14 fallacy called Nabih Berri.

Update. (Thursday) The cabinet has adopted resolution 2403 and urged Fatfat to take disciplinary measures against any employee who refuses to carry out his orders, in reference to Jizzini.

The Daily Star reported Hizbullah's opposition:

Hizbullah lashed out at acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat on Thursday, accusing him of attempting to sneak through a "secret security network" that would grant unrestricted access to intelligence and security files for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Proposal 2403 stipulates providing UNIFIL free access to all security-related information, in addition to information on foreigners entering and leaving the country. The plan would group General Security, State Security and the information unit of the Internal Security Forces. If the proposal is approved, UNIFIL will be able to access security and intelligence data via the Internet.

I am not sure how accurate the Daily Star reporting is on this subject, especially the part about "accessing intelligence data via the internet." And from what I gathered, 2403 may have been motivated by a UNIFIL request, but it is not exclusively a UNIFIL tool. As I argued above, this is really about reining in the security agencies and bringing them under the authority of the interior ministry.  A very late but necessary step.

Update 2. (Friday, 8 am) Fatfat went ahead and suspended Jizzini this morning for 20 days. A deputy in Nabih Berri's block, Ali Hassan Khalil has accused Fatfat of trying to establish a "new security regime". Berri's argument now is that Fatfat is acting interior minister and doesn't have the authority to make such decisions. The Hizbullah and Amal ministers, however, did not vote against Fatfat's resolution yesterday during the cabinet session, which featured a long explanation by Fatfat that apparently won them over... until this morning (LBC News)

Comments

[Ghassan Karam]

No wonder that the Syrian Ba'ath agreed to the swift and even humiliating departure from lebanon after the Harriri assasination. They could rest assured that Lebanon was still in "safe" hands and that March 14 will not amount to much. And they were right, the combination of Lahoud/Beri/HA has proven to be so effective that the Syrian control on the country has not even budged. This did not have to be so. Syria withdrew under international pressure with the hope that their agents will be able to act as chameleons, obstruct and gain access and control of the "cpmmanding heights" of officialdom. This Syrian plan and their hope for continuied dominance of Lebanon proved to be successful beyond anyones dream but not without the invaluable help that was provided every step of the way by , of all possible groups, March 14.

It was March 14 that proposed, defended and promoted the electoral alliance in the Beka'a,and parts of the Shouf, it was March 14 that invited HA to join the cabinet with 2 ministers and it was March 14 that permitted the Beri/HA cabinet ministers to paralyze the country by refusing to attend to the national business and to walk out from the cabinet when it suited them and then to rejoin without any reprimands, hell March 14 begged them to come back. And who can forget the charade of the Hiwar. Again March 14 was a participant in a game orchestrated by Beri that appeared to be an exercise in futility but that has effectively prevented March 14 from adopting any meaningful policies to address the challenges that face the country. Instead March 14 adopted the language of HA/Beri?Lahoud concerning the primacy of liberating what is arguably not Lebanons anyway. But the coup de grace was the way that HA and its allies managed to drag Lebanon into a destructive sensless war and maneuvered to allow its chief honcho Nasralleh to even address the Lebanese as if he was the sole elected leader and now after all the human losses and physical destruction to the country HA is calling for a rally to celebrate its "divine victory". All of this, the illegal arms, the illegal provocations, the illegal behaviour before, during and after the war including statements that denegrate the March 14 and the current government still acts and carries on as clueless. The current government, i.e. March 14 has fought for a UNSCR 1701 under chapter 6 and is even helping undermine the international community by providing the cover that yes Lebanon will cherry pick the resolution. Who governs Lebanon? I will let you be the judge. A more appropriate question: Would there be a Lebanon left if this current crew is not changed?

[Maha]

Your question is a legitimate one, but I wonder if the current political leadership in Lebanon is eager to address it… The issue is that the March 14 can and should tell Nasrallah that his behavior won’t be tolerated anymore. It is beyond any reason to let a militia and its Secretary General to act as it pleases, disobeying the country’s laws.

I don’t know anymore what to think about Saniora’s gov. and about young Hariri. What do they hope to accomplish by handling Hezb with gloves?!

Lebanon is a country in leeway, manipulated by thugs as Berri, Nasrallah and their servants. Hezb is doing to Lebanon what PLO did years ago. It hurts my feelings to see Lebanon used as a pawn by Syria and Iran.

What about the Lebanese diaspora, don’t they have a say in this issue?

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

Is Lebanon Ruleble ?

Don't think so; not in the current structure.
The solution?.. Cantonisation / Federalism is the achievable
but less desired solution.
Full separation into homogeneous populations, according to ethnic lines is the
preferred solution, but is it achievable?
Yes. Only after a civil war of no return, Yugoslavian style.
.

[Jeha]

This is shaping up to be a scary thread... I fear where it is going.

the way it is shaping up, could the UNIFIL's job be only one of "keeping the neighbours out while the children kill one another".

The trigger could easily be the coming presidential election... A couple of questions;

1- Did Fafat just volunteer that info, or was he just responding to a question?

2- Are they sure there are no "unexploded ordnances" left in Dahyeh?

[jessie]

kind of reminds me of the Black September episode of 1970 where arafat and the PLO tried to take over Jordan.

wonder how Lebanon feels now about letting them in there after being kicked out of Jordan?

[Shiite]

MAKES ME SICK TO MY STOMACH to hear HA are going on a rally to celebrate their "divine victory" over Israel, That is so stupid and unecessary.
HA probably wants to show how much they love Lebanon so they are going to perform for the Lebanese people their famous 3ashoora stupid show and of course not to forget burn the pope's picture and much more surprises..... In otherwords, they are going to add more fuel to the fire.

We (as lebanese) should oppose this rally, I wonder where Michel Aoun is standing in regards to this unofficial rally.

[Battal Agha]

Am very pessimistic at the turn of events. This shows that the Authority in Lebanon is STILL not in the hand of the Government. Letting the Hezb hold the meeting without the authorization, means a total abdication of authority. Don't be surprised if tomorrow a rocket is launched against Israel. I wonder what would the Government say? OOps sorry, did not know?? What would be Israel's response??>>>

[bad vilbel]

On a local front, we seem to be headed towards that pseudo civil war, no way around it. This is what some of us have been repeating over and over for the past month or so. It remains to be seen which side will end up victorious here.

In the meantime, on the regional front, the "plan" is proceeding apace. Witness the comments by Prince Saud Al-Faisal, regarding a resumption of the peace talks, with emphasis on results, rather than the process (Yahoo link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060921/ap_on_re_mi_ea/un_mideast_peace)

[e]

Building a country is like running a marathon. You can't let every bump in the road depress you. Nasrallah will hold a rally and will even talk at it. So what? Did you expect things to change overnight?
Is the government doing more to stand up to HA than before the war? Yes.
As time passes will they become more assertive? Yes.
Are peopole in Lebanon still in shock because of the war? Yes, but in one year's time, all Lebanese will understand the stupid mistake HA made.
Is civil war the solution? No, it is the end of modern Lebanon as all able people will emmigrate.
Patience is required. The HA PR stunts should not influence you. As an Israeli I can tell you that for 60 years the Arab regimes have been "talking trash" at us. Big deal. Let HA talk and have rallies.
Will this help to create jobs and build a properous country? No. Most Lebanese will eventually realize that you can't take "pride" to the bank.
It will take time but because of UNIFIL and the weaknening of HA, there is some time. Not all the time in the world but enough to do things in a way that will circumvent a civil war.
e

e,
As I told you once before I sure hope that you are right. Nothing pleases me more than my being dead wrong in my gloomy assessment. I am afraid however that you are using false metrics to support your position. False in the sense that I do not believe for a second that reason, rationality,accountability and economic well being are important factors in guiding and motivating the Lebanese political scene. I am of the opinion that your conclusions are coloured by the rose tinted glasses through which you are looking, a clear set of glasses will give a clearer reflection of reality:-)

[e]

Ghassan (I presume),
Some Lebanese must be motivated by economic well being and the wish to live in a western type democracy more than they are motivated by "pride". The question is how many. If there are just a few in Lebanon, I will accept your gloomy projection sadly. If this group is more than 50% of the population, perhaps there is a chance.
e

[bad vilbel]

e,

Most of those Lebanese you are referring to have already emmigrated. They're in France, Canada and the US :)

[Shiite]

YES I AM ONE OF THEM LIVING IN FLORIDA

[Jeha]

e,

If you suggest that Hussein Nasrallah is no worse than Nasser, you may be mistaken.

Nasser did not talk to God. Hussein Nasrallah does; and what is worse, God, or the Mahdi, talks back to him...

True, the Iranians have more "realistic" geopolitical aims, but their Lebanese puppets are "true believers".

[e]

Bad, Shiite,
So the really important question is how many Lebanese of your kind are left in Lebanon? I don't know but I guess it is a fundamental question the answer to which will determine how the future unfolds.
e

[e]

Jeha,

I do not underestimate Nasrallah and his "direct connection" to God for one second. But HA cannot survive without the support of a sizable part of the Shia population. He is responsible for their well being and come winter, many of them will be more angry at him.

There is always a hard core of true believers, but many people support HA because of the sense of pride and belonging that they provide to the Shia community and are not hard core people themselves. HA is at risk of losing the support of this part of the Shia community and I think they know this.

I think this is inevitable but will take time to unfold. In a years time when people are still living beside the ruins or with their relatives and are still jobless, things will change. It took the Palestinians 6 months to realize that a Hamas government is not a good idea even though it was clear what would happen before hand. If elections would be held today Fatah would win. These things take to time to sink in but economic reality is economic reality. One has pride in HA's exploits but also in not being a beggar. The choice for most people is simple.

A great compromise will be the disarming of HA in exchange for more representation for the Shiites in Lebanese politics. This I hope is what will happen but it will take a while to unfold.

e

[R]

Hi guys,
I posted a very simple brief analysis of the possible consequences of HA's victory parade if anyone is interested. Somehow, I have a feeling this event will shape a lot of Lebanon's internal politics in the near future...

[jeha]

It is possible that you are right, but I do not see much similarities with the Palestinian case; the Lebanese dynamics are a microcosm of the larger Arabic/Semite world.

We were never really a single nation; we are a mix of clans and groups, under a "lebanese" label, much like arabs are a mix of tribes, under an "Arab" label... Hebrews are similar, except that, in their case, the label is more "encompassing", in the sense that they do find more in common...

Like it or not, we never had that much of it; it only exists in opposition to others. But since "deux negations ne font pas une nation", we never really became a nation.

For this reason, a compromise would be one among "nations", in the most narrow minded sense. March 14 has failed; it never suited the interests of the many minions who rule the clans. And in this narrow optic, Hezb has much more to offer the Shiites than at first sight.

Even with the current wave of destruction, many Shiites never had it so goood. They were nobodies before!

Socially, they are still very clanic, and in some cases tribal. In the Beqaa, they are downright tribal; the lands of the Jaafar, and the Dandach have a law of their own, and there are powerful clans such as the Zoayter... in the south, they were nobodys, and Hezb is the only good thing they ever saw during the ENTIRE history of the country.

Many Shiites may recall that people like Emile Eddeh had once asked the french to separate the south from Lebanon... And now, why would they trust a March 14 whose "leaders" turned on one another?

... I just know the audience, it may not accept any compromise. Much as the Alawite clan in Syria, having been denied so much for so long, they want it all, and they think can almost taste it. It is in this that we can see "the Danger of The Divine Victory" that R posted about.

If they are after the entire country, I think that they are overreaching. Oil politics will not allow Shiites to control BOTH sides of the transport routes.

As long as they are controlled by Iran, a sort of Federalism is the best deal Shiites are likely to get.

Joumblat realized as much when he made strong hints of federalism during an otherwise fiery speech. He established his bottom line; whoever gives him that deal, he will "turn" with them. Geagea is also doing a parade of his own; no doubt his acquiesence to Joumblat's deal...

[jeha]

It is possible that you are right, but I do not see much similarities with the Palestinian case; the Lebanese dynamics are a microcosm of the larger Arabic/Semite world.

We were never really a single nation; we are a mix of clans and groups, under a "lebanese" label, much like arabs are a mix of tribes, under an "Arab" label... Hebrews are similar, except that, in their case, the label is more "encompassing", in the sense that they do find more in common...

Like it or not, we never had that much of it; it only exists in opposition to others. But since "deux negations ne font pas une nation", we never really became a nation.

For this reason, a compromise would be one among "nations", in the most narrow minded sense. March 14 has failed; it never suited the interests of the many minions who rule the clans. And in this narrow optic, Hezb has much more to offer the Shiites than at first sight.

Even with the current wave of destruction, many Shiites never had it so goood. They were nobodies before!

Socially, they are still very clanic, and in some cases tribal. In the Beqaa, they are downright tribal; the lands of the Jaafar, and the Dandach have a law of their own, and there are powerful clans such as the Zoayter... in the south, they were nobodys, and Hezb is the only good thing they ever saw during the ENTIRE history of the country.

Many Shiites may recall that people like Emile Eddeh had once asked the french to separate the south from Lebanon... And now, why would they trust a March 14 whose "leaders" turned on one another?

... I just know the audience, it may not accept any compromise. Much as the Alawite clan in Syria, having been denied so much for so long, they want it all, and they think can almost taste it. It is in this that we can see "the Danger of The Divine Victory" that R posted about.

If they are after the entire country, I think that they are overreaching. Oil politics will not allow Shiites to control BOTH sides of the transport routes.

As long as they are controlled by Iran, a sort of Federalism is the best deal Shiites are likely to get.

Joumblat realized as much when he made strong hints of federalism during an otherwise fiery speech. He established his bottom line; whoever gives him that deal, he will "turn" with them. Geagea is also doing a parade of his own; no doubt his acquiesence to Joumblat's deal...

[Ghassan Karam]

Abu Kais,
My quick read of both Al Safir and also Aldyyar this afternoon left me with the impression that all ministers, including Beri and HA ones, have offered their support to the new arrangements of Mr. Fatfat. If I understood your update correctly, the DS is reporting exactly the opposite!!! I do not have time to double check the various web sites at the moment but I would appreciate it if someone would clarify this inconsistency.

[Vox P.]

This government is barely capable to make itself obeyed by the security forces, so I doubt that Hezbollah has anything to fear from this intelligence agreemnt, if it exists,

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

jeha,

I agree with you.
But can you see HZB concede on Beirut
in a futuristic federalist solution?
Can you see the Christians give up
on Beirut?
So who is going to have Beirut?
Can a solution regarding Beirut
could be reached in a peaceful way,
without phlebotomizing blood.?
.

[Amir from Tel Aviv]

'Terrorism'
is a very very bad concept these days,
especially because of W. George's sensitivities.

But it is one of the ways to achieve political aims.
This is also, as they call it, the weapon of the poor.
March / February / whatever 14 is VERY poor.
So as a Lebanese, I would consider using
terrorism against HZB.
Hassan is not stupid; he is very careful these days,
because he's in a sensitive situation; the Shias
are in an unstable period, having to rebuild their communities.
That is why Hassan is so quiet, and self-restraint regarding
Israeli presence in S. Lebanon, for example.
This is the time to strike in order to prevent HZB from
recovering.
I know; it sounds very bad; especially from a 'militaristic'
and 'barbarian' Israeli. But think about it logically.
You have to send Hassan and HZB a clear massage:
in all times, look behind your back.
Now when HZB is weak ( the divine victory parade proves that),
is the time to continue and disrupting HZB activities and reconstruction.
AND since they need lots of money to rebuild, why not forcing them to spend at least some of it on defense.?
.

[Jeha]

AbuKais, Ghassan,

It is interesting that the information reported is so contradictory. It could be because the real political situation in Lebanon is so fluid. However, it is worth getting noting that, according to some sources, Mr Jezzini himself is a very powerful Hezb plant in the services; this could be the cause of his open defiance. There are a couple of others like him, in similar position.

Open defiance may not be necessary for "underlings" to circumvent a Minister's order. the security services may be very hard to reform, as long as Hezb and Berri are anywhere close to government.

But it is not all hopeless; during the past war, the pro-syrian commander of the army has effectively "not followed" the minister's order. But some anti-syrian commanders also managed "not to follow" the commander in chief...

Also, a sign of weakness of the pro-Syrians; their masters have recently been "paying" some of their key followers. This is a first in Syria's involvment, and the trend appears to have started before July. For a country that used to get everything done through coercion, it is a sure sign of receding influence.

BTW, AbuKais, sorry about the "double posting". It had appeared as if I lost the connection.

Amir,

Taef has been decried a lot, but it does have a framework for a durable solution. Short of a federal system, which too many think Lebanon is too small to adopt, it does provide for a decentralised system.

This would go a long way towards removing hegemonic tendencies in Lebanon. And maybe help consolidate the rise of the "homo libanis" who so forcefully reared his head on March 14.

That's a model the neighbours would not like, since it would be so eminently "exportable"...

[Abu Kais]

Ghassan, see my second update.

[Andrea Baucero]

What I wonder is: is Hezbollah planning to display its usual set of heavy weapons and long-range missiles during the parade? In that case Lebanon would be in open violation of resolution 1701, and Israel would have a 100% legitimacy to bomb the parade.

[e]

I shudder to think what would happen if the two famous geographical abstract nouns "Balkanization" and "Lebanonization" are actually combined to describe a process in one small country.
e

[Straight Shooter]

The Phalangists are just mad because the Hizbollah are currently kicking the sh*t out of the SLA holdover collaborators in the South.

[another someone]

I hear the hypno-toad, I mean SHN, is on TV. Mass Hypnosis to get everyone to show up tomorrow?

That guy is the epitome of Calm, Self control, and Charisma. Whenever I watch him speak, (by accident), I am tempted to strap some fire crackers and go do some damage.

Pom, pom, poooom....

[Abi Lama]

'Divine' Billboards Target Journalists
If you're wondering why Hezbollah's "Divine Victory" billboards sprouting across Beirut are in English instead of Arabic, its because the organization's P.R. blitz is targeting Western journalists. Newsweek talked to Mohammad Kawtharani, who works at the Beirut advertising company handling Hezbollah's ad campaign:

Part of the Islamists' new strategy: a $100,000 advertising blitz called "Divine Victory," featuring more than 600 billboards around Beirut and southern Lebanon touting Hizbullah's exploits during the 34-day war. (Cleverly, the slogan is almost a literal translation of Nasrallah's last name.) The panels line the road to Beirut from the city's international airport, and the new buy includes slogans like "America and its tools have been defeated"—in English. Last week the group expanded the campaign, adding dozens more billboards, and Nasrallah himself made an appearance at a massive rally in Beirut, standing in front of one (pictured)....
One of the striking things about Hizbullah's campaign is that many of the billboards around Lebanon are in English, crafted explicitly for foreign TV cameras. Some of Hizbullah's six-man creative team, like Kawtharani himself, studied at the American University of Beirut and are fluent enough to employ a more subtly effective English idiom—the MADE IN THE U.S.A. banners, for example.