Why Hizbullah lost

There is a lot of blabber by Nasrallah and his worshippers about a “victory”. Others have also joined this bandwagon, handing Hizbullah victory against Israel because the militia allegedly stood their ground and were not vanquished in 32 days.  And now some of the political discourse in Lebanon and other countries is resting on this alleged victory.

What victory? And where is this victory set?

The way I see it, Hizbullah’s reign is over, whether they realize it or not, and whether those pundits claiming Hizbullah victory know it or not. This senseless war may not have finished them off militarily, but whatever Hizbullah has gained within its own community was lost with Sunnis, Christians and Druze, and I should add, sensible Shias. So they “stood up” to the Israeli army. Israel’s inability to crush them does not translate into a victory for Khomeini’s soldiers. The livelihood of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese was probably ruined, and Hizbullah cannot brush it aside as “victory”.

I am not of the opinion that Hizbullah has emerged victorious politically in Lebanon. Despite having warned about such a prospect, this argument is not sustainable by the amount of damage their unilateralism has brought. The death and destruction caused by their “defense strategy” speaks of uttermost failure to “defend”. People don’t eat rockets and not all are blessed with a secure path to heaven. Countries do not survive on the kind of hollow victory talk practiced by despots and delusional religious militants. Hizbullah may be able to bribe their own people with rent money, but the rest of the Lebanese population knows that the path of Hizbullah is a straight road to hell.  I will say that the day of reckoning has come for Hizbullah. While, unfortunately, it won’t be at the hands of the Shia, at least not now, it will come from the rest of the Lebanese people who cannot afford to live under their obscurantist rhetoric.

Read Nasrallah’s speech in that context. The man says he won, when in fact he is losing his reign. When the state’s army is on the ground protecting the border, and when there are voices speaking against the prostitution of the country, a movement like Hizbullah will, sooner or later, find itself isolated. Nasrallah knows that his militia might become redundant, and unless he is planning a civil war, which I doubt, his days as supreme leader are numbered.

The dark lord of Damascus can bark all he wants. He too lost. UNSC resolution 1701 hit the Assad regime hard (as well as Iran), and so did the Arab League’s lobbying on behalf of Siniora’s government. Assad is more isolated than ever. No assassination or hypocritical attachment to a supposed victory will make him relevant.  His path to relevancy is pathetic and will not fly.

Assad and Nasrallah must feel like Siniora used the war to come out on top. The Lebanese government and the military are being positioned to become the antidote to Hizbullah, as they should have always been but were prevented by the Assad regime.

Sending the Lebanese army on a mission to protect the people is greater than the ambiguity of not explicitly ordering the disarmament of Hizbullah. It lays the ground work. Hizbullah can no longer freely operate without a confrontation with the army. Today, part of the state has returned to the long forgotten south, pending the return of all of the state’s institutions—a follow up step that is essential.

Given that we’re talking about the state that never came through for the rest of Lebanese, and which has now been robbed by the unilateral actions of Hizbullah, the challenge ahead is great. But the effort must be undertaken. Hizbullah has already announced that it is rebuilding some 15,000 homes and offering people rent money up to a year. Some Hizbullah official even had the audacity to go on TV and bash the government for not doing enough. The state cannot outlaw this kind of aid, but it can position itself as a stronger equivalent. For that, it must recruit all the help in the world. Iran’s Shia farm must be shut down, and its residents set free. 

Comments

[Ghassan Karam]

Your fellow blogger Desmond described he HA victory best when he said that if this is victory then please give it to somebody else.Besides all the death and destruction the economic burden on the future generations is nothing short of robbing them of so many possibilities and the confidence in the country has been so much shaken that it might not be able to overcome these obstacles for decades. Even militarily the jury is still out regarding the real losses in men , logistics and materiale. To claim victory is laughable but it was to be expected. Egypt after all won the 1973 war in which its armed forces were decimated and the same thing applies to Syria. Maybe there is something in the air that we breath.

HA cannot be understood as a purely indigenous Lebanese movement. It is part of the rise of radical islam or as some prefer political islam. This is not the place to get into an academic detailed presentation but suffice it to say that the roots for such a movement can be traced at least over the past 100-150 years and definitely to the rise of Moslem Brotherhood, especially the ideas of Qutb. Another important component in the rise of militant islam was the Iranian revolution of 1978 during which the Ayatoallah Khomeini rose to prominence and helped establish Iranian HA which gave birth to the lebanese counterpart and some are talking about even the poisiibility of a Syrian HA in the near future. The above very brief historical detour is only to illustrate that this movement is a reaction to modernity and a dissatisfaction with the current status of Moslem countries. The achiles heal in all cases, Al Qaeda and HA is that both would like to solve the perceived problems of the present by imposing strictures, and societal constructs that are over a thousand years old and that cannot handle the sensibilities of the time. When viewed as such then it becomes obvious that such ideas are doomed to fail because they are essentially backward looking. But what about the short run? That is the rub for most of us. I know that HA will not be around in the distant future but as Keynes was quipped"In the long run we are all dead". The present and the immediate future is just as important for me as an individual. And that is precisely wher the failure of my government to limit HA and prevent it from decalring war and then victory followed by a historic appeasemnt where the governemnt of Lebanon is borrowing a page out of Orwell. All of Lebanon will be under the authority of the Lebanese army because all other arms will not be carried openly. We will even look the other way while the HA fighters are repinforcing their bunkers and receiving new supplies. After all if the army oed not see the resupplies and the repeirs then they did not happen, right?
Abu Kais, I agree with all what you have said except the short run. WE have, as a goverbnment, failed to exploit what I think is a not so deep ideological support of HA in the Shia community and at the same time we have allowed them to have a veto power over all other government actions. In essence we have consistently appeased and unless we can form a strong governemnt to stand up to HA and explain to the public that the national good must be the only measure for our actions then I am afraid that in that regard HA has won the domestic political challenge by default. And that will not be easy to reverse.

[Bad Vilbel]

Welcome back Abu Kais.

Your thoughts mirror my own at the moment. I think HA is cornered, as you describe and looking to being increasingly isolated on the internal lebanese scene.

The problem i see though, is that the Siniora government and it's backers do not seem to be acting fast enough to take advantage of HA's weakened position. The longer they wait, and the more they try to appease Nasrallah, the more HA is likely to recover the ground it lost. And as i see it, HA has already re-bought the Shia community (with all that cash). And I dont really see how the rest of Lebanon without the Shia can marginalize HA, short of a civil war.

[Laila]

Does $10,000 buy a house and furnishings in southern Lebanon?

[billmon]

It must be lovely living in Abu Kais's dream bubble. Now if he could just drag the entire Middle East in with him, he'd have this thing licked.

[R]

Abu Kais,

In the cold hard analysis of victory and defeat, HA lost the instant Syria left Lebanon, at least as a military organization. It was only a matter of how and when.

However, as you know, in the arab world it is not victory that matter as much as the perception of victory among the masses. Unfortunately, HA has managed (at least for now), to convince its base that it has won (I have spoken to some acquaintances from teh south and htey are completely convinced of their victory). How much that perception changes as the realities of post-agression Lebanon kicks in, remains to be seen.

[Bad Vilbel]

Lebanon and the Lebanese are hopeless....

[Inverse Constant]

Nassrallah definitely lost amongst his people - along with the rest of lebanon. We all suffer here from a deep financial and social losses from north to south, it is more than you can imagine. As long as iran funds HA they wont go away.

H Al Sabah - from Beirut

[someone]

Nasrallah is not responsible of the mass destruction,everybody knows that it was not him who dropped bombs on civilians,everybody knows including lebanese politicians and people around the world that "israel" was the one who bombed,and that the response was disproportional.

So Nasrallah has not lost,yes his country is damaged ,and he feel sorry for that,but this is war,and there is casualities in every war on both sides,he still fight for lebanese rights,and lebaneses knows this is legitime rights .

The victory is that ,"israel" failed to defeat its militia after 33 days of fierce fighting,and was forced to withdraw, when nothing was achieved.When a small militia fight USA and still exist after that ,then this small militia count this as a victory.

The economy problems can be solved , by building again what "israel" destructed by hate,and the image of "israel" among lebaneses and arabs will still be dark,and the image of its army as irresistible is no longer valid.

[stubby]

Someone, while I respect a healthy fantasy life as much as the next person, you shouldn't live in it full time. The economic problems won't just get "solved." Hezbollah can't, and wouldn't, rebuild the lost buisnesses and get new companies to invest. Lebanon's economy is screwed for the forseeable future.

And Lebanon has not heard the last of the Israeli army. I think most rational people realize that this thing is not over yet. The UN "force" will do nothing, Hezbollah will do something stupid, and this time when the Israeli tanks roll it will under the direction of a Netanyahu government or another hardliner. This thing is not over, and it's going to get even uglier.

I keep wondering why Hezbollah and its deluded backers are acting like the Israeli army has been permanently turned back, why they act as if this skirmish in a decades old, not yet finished struggle is the end of Israel and the beginning of some Iranian/Syrian empire. And then I remember that a people who can convince themselves that Egypt won the 1967 war can convince themselves of just about anything.

[e]

The Saniora government should pick one Shia village in the south, say Maroun Al-Ras, that is completely destroyed and make it a model project of rebuilding. It can't reasonably rebuild all the villages simultaneously and neither can HA. Saniora should take the Saudi money and do this. He can start work in MAroun Al-Ras before HA because Israel still controls this territory. One shining example is all that is needed as a first stage.

I would also like to ask some stupid questions that perhaps the Lebanese know the answer to:
1) Do you need a building permit to build in Beirut?
2) Where are building materials usually imported from?
3) Is there a process of urban planning in Beirut and in other places?
4) Are there building codes and can they be enforced?

The gist of this is that there are many ways that the Saniora government can exercise sovereignity, especially in Beirut and control the rebuilding effort thus making it necessarry for HA to compromise. Can they and will they do it?
e

[R]

e,
to answer some of your questions:
1) yes
2) mostly local i believe, though the labor is not
3) only in downtown beirut
4) yes, and apparently not

and finally, no and no. But the last two answers are my own opinion.

[fubar]

BEIRUT (AFX) - Israeli warplanes launched air strikes targeting an uninhabited area near Baalbek in eastern Lebanon, police said.

Helicopters and drones flew at low altitude 22 kilometres (13 miles) northeast of Baalbek and fired four missiles, police said.

Lebanese police said unidentified guns were then fired at the aircraft. newsdesk@afxnews.com afp/rar

[Abu Kais]

Fubar, Israel denied it.

Check Haaretz.

[Ghassan Karam]

I understand the spirit in which various individuals are asking the government to beat Ha to the draw in the building and reconstruction effort. ( Even Commedy Central has been having a field day with this issue; Maybe we should commiccion HA to rebuild New Orleans they sure are quicker, and more efficient than Haliburton...) But at one point we need to ask the value of an allegiance that is bought by money? If monetery measures are to be used then maybe HA must be held responsible for the $3.5 billion of infrastructure damage, compensation to the families of all the victims of the war, compensation to all the business that has been lost and a few billion dollars to be put aside in a "Future Fund" to compensate the future generations for all what they will have to do without as a result of the Nasrallah folly.

I do not want the government to get into a race with HA and its Iranian money but I demand that my government act responsibly and stand up for what is right.

[Inverse Constant]

Someone

You are a fantacist supreme thinking that lebanon can be rebuilt just like that, reputations and trust take years to be restored - as for the economy, it doesnt take an economist to know the will be NO renewed investment in Lebanon for a LONG LONG time, probably quite the opposite.

Hizbalah has divided our nation of Lebanon without consent from anybody. It has helped bring back the stigma of war that this country has with its shattered lives rebuilt, - only to bring it back to ruins.

The entire world will NEVER look at this country the same way. With your beliefs and your support for this champion of criminals you will keep ourselves and supposed nations like lebanon, firmly in the dark ages, where there is no justice for anyone except the powerful.

No welfare, except for those that blindly follow their criminal leaders. No good education except for those who can somehow flee their pariah-status nation, where Corruption is the only way of getting things done . The list of crimes are endless

You are truly humiliated, ignorant and locked in place by your backward culture of primitives

[fubar]

Abu Kais,

Yeah, I know Israel denied firing any missles. But not the over flights or being fired upon by ground forces.

They are watching for rearmament coming in through Syria. It is just a matter time until they see one and take it out. Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have not given up on rearming.

[Richard]

It's good to see the Lebanese really talking about the outcome of this war. When SOMEONE can blissfully display his ignorance, it is obvious you have plenty of challenges left ahead. For those who hate Jews and only count victory in terms of Jewish blood spilt, this has been a great victory.

For the rest of Lebanon, hundreds of innocent civilians lost their life in this great victory. Businesses have been destroyed and tourists will stay away. Will Hezbollah have enough cash to pay for all this damage? How much does an Arab parent charge for a dead child? Will the year of free rent outlast the nightmares that scar some of the youth? Will the bridges, streets, buildings, and other infrastructure be completed before Hezbollah decides to capture the next soldier?

There is plenty for the Lebanese civilians to discuss. Hezbollah will dish out cash and try to buy approval. For those of you who payed a price without getting the Hezbollah cash, it is time to speak up. The Shia who are gladly accepting payment to be cannon fodder will not listen, but the rest of your society will notice. A price has been paid for Hezbollah to claim this victory. It is now time to tally up that cost.

[someone]

"For the rest of Lebanon, hundreds of innocent civilians lost their life in this great victory. Businesses have been destroyed and tourists will stay away. Will Hezbollah have enough cash to pay for all this damage? How much does an Arab parent charge for a dead child? Will the year of free rent outlast the nightmares that scar some of the youth? Will the bridges, streets, buildings, and other infrastructure be completed before Hezbollah decides to capture the next soldier?"

There is one forgotten point in 1701 resolution:

- "israel" response to the attack was dispropotional, and then it should payback all the damage to Lebanon.Lebanese government should estimate this damage and inform the international community. Economic sanctions should be put on "israel" .
-All the countries which was against an immediate cease-fire, should also payback the damage ,including the US.

[fubar]

Hezbollah "someone",

Remember, you said "So Nasrallah has not lost, yes his country is damaged, and he feel sorry for that, but this is war, and there is casualities in every war on both sides this was war."

You are right. This was war. Disproportional response is just war. There are casualties and damage on both sides. Suck it up.

If you won, why are you such a whiner now? Winners don't whine. Losers whine. You figure it out.

[bad vilbel]

Does every altercation have to have a winner and a loser?
Nope.

There was no winner here. Nasrallah may claim victory all he wants. So can Olmert. Those are just words.
Just like with everything else, there is no black and white. Only shades of gray.
And just like every real-world situation, this one yielded both positives and negatives for all sides.

Positives
* Israel got to inflict some damage to Hezbollah and got to stir Lebanon into realizing they cannot turn a blind eye to Hezbollah without paying for it.
* Lebanon got to deploy the Army to the south and now has to figure out how to tackle Hezbollah's disarmament (I argue this as a positive)
* Hezbollah got to showcase their ability to inflict SOME damage to the IDF.

Negatives:
* Lebanon suffered casualties and severe losses in terms of infrastructure.
* Israel was unable to free the 2 prisoners, suffered some damage to its morale and the Olmert government is likely toast.
* Hezbollah probably suffered severe losses militarily.

And this is not even analyzing the implications positive and negaative for Iran, the US, and Syria.

So can we stop debating who "won" and who "lost" now?

[someone]

"You are right. This was war. Disproportional response is just war. There are casualties and damage on both sides. Suck it up.

If you won, why are you such a whiner now? Winners don't whine. Losers whine. You figure it out."

fubar,

whatever it means,

I am a human, i dont be glad seeing inoccent civilians dead nor destructions , yes it is war, but the war is bewteen armed groups ,killing more civilians to get back the moral ,or to press the enemy is an immoral act, this is what is called war crime.Droping an atomic bomb on heroshima was a war crime ,eventhough US claims it won the "war" on Japan.

[fubar]

Someone,

Finally, I have gotten to you.

If you are human, you will know that wars have occurred between humans for all eternity.

If you are human, you will know that when at war the goal is to win.

This war is not over, it is in a unstable truce.

You want to talk about war crimes? Hezbollah’s entire battle plan is one big war crime. Hezbollah fires rockets from within civilian areas so it can shout war crime when Israel responds. Hezbollah fires rockets into Israeli towns and cities, killing civilians, and then shouts war crimes when Israel shoots back and kills civilians. As long as you support Hezbollah, you have no right to talk about war crimes. Hezbollah started this war and determined how it would be fought. Israel’s biggest mistake was that it did not conduct all out war against Hezbollah because it tried to protect civilian lives.

The US dropped atomic bombs on Japan. It ended a war. You may call it a war crime if you wish. I can give dozens of other examples. The US also used flame throwers to burn the Japanese out of their cave bunkers. I see flame throwers in Hezbollah’s future in the next war or when this war continues.

The real question, if you are human, is this:

What is so important to one person, or group of people, that it justifies crossing into another country, killing that country’s soldiers, kidnapping two of that country’s soldiers, and firing Katyushas into that country to create a diversion (all acts of war), and at the same time taking one’s own country into war?

Shebaa Farms?

Three Lebanese in Israeli prisons?

The real crime here is that one person, and his supporters, were able to bring such death, such economic and environmental destruction, and such humiliation, to one country – a country which they then claimed to be protecting.

The real crime is that there are people who even attempt to justify the actions of Nasrallah and Hezbollah.

A lesson has been learned from this war. In the future, when fighting Hezbollah, the only goal will the total, unmerciful defeat of the enemy at any cost.

Are you willing to have Lebanon pay that price for Nasrallah’s next war?

[Ghassan Karam]

Fubar,
Your logic is immaculate but I am not sure that "someone" reads the responses. He just says whatever he wants to say. He reminds of public hearings, at least the ones that I attend. It is so rare in any of the dozens of the hearings that I have attended and participated in to see someone change their position irrrespective of the strength of the argument presented by the other side. I describe these encounters as hearings where nobody listens. To a large extent this is what goes on with many of theses attempts at dialogue on these blog pages. I am no sociologist but maybe it is human nature to stick to our guns.

I have on rare occassions seen change occur and invariably the change was not sudden, it was not a eureka moment or an epiphany if you will. Change is most likely to happen very gradually over a long period of time. My hope is that "someone" will eventually see the error of his ways:-) Nothing personal someone, just trying to be analytical:-)

[fubar]

Ghassan,

We must not give up on someone.

In the week before 1701, his posts became much more coherent and his thinking much more logical and analytical.

We have only lost him since 1701. He is caught up in Hezbollah victory fever.

There is hope for him yet.

True change occurs one person at a time.

[fubar]

Ghassan,

Don't look now, but there has been another report of Israeli air strikes in the Beqaa Valley. The IDF says they are checking on it.

Siniora and gang are going to have to make a choice soon. Whether this report is confirmed or not, Israel is watching for rearmament of Hezbollah. They will strike when they think they have one. What is Siniora going to do, call Kofi again and cry that Israel is violating Lebanese airspace.

The European countries volunteering for UNIFIL are almost all volunteering to send ships or planes to keep the arms embargo, not boots on the ground. What that says is that what everyone cares about is the arms embargo, not being UNIFIL shields for Hezbollah.

1701 is crumbling.

[e]

Fubar,
I can't figure out what is going on. Most of the IDF reservists were sent home. What is Olmert going to do when HA starts firing rockets again? Is he gambling that HA will not respond? Stranger and stranger.
e

[fubar]

e,

This is two reports of air strikes in less than 24 hours. Both by Lebanese security forces (whatever that means). Both times, the Lebanese (or most likely Hezbollah) fired at the drones/helicopters/planes.

Both times the IAF denied any airstrikes but say that they are overflying. Hell, of course, they are. They would be fools not to. No one else flys over Lebanon without Israel's permission. Israel is the only one who can or will watch for Hezbollah rearmament.

The question is, what is Nasrallah's game (or Israel's). My initial thought is that Nasrallah is trying to create facts from which to claim that Israel has broken the truce (not that Hezbollah did not do that on day one by refusing to disarm). But you know how Nasrallah thinks, it does not have to make sense to us, it only has to fly to his supporters.

The other possibility is that Nasrallah just wants to cry foul so the Lebanese govt. will get Kofi to stop the IAF from making overflights so that Nasrallah can get his new missles. Kofi is already calling for removal of the sea blockade. Israel is stupid if it stops either.

Not to worry, those reservists can be called back as quick as they were sent home.

If this starts in earnest again, Israel will go in on Israel's time table, not Hezbollah's.

[Ghassan Karam]

Fubar,
HA needs to keep the rationale for its existense upfront in the mind of the public. So if 1701 is to be implemented even partially by keeping HA away from the borders then its weapons and bruhaha away from the border will transform it into a laughable ineffective talk and no action Bashar like image. That can be avoided by either creating or forcing incidents away from the borders. What better way than to either shoot at an Israeli drone or even stage an arms delivery that would force the IAF into action.
I only hope that the Lebanese government communique will not stop at blaming the Israeli side but will also take a strong position againstthe "brothers" that the army is refusing to disarm as it deploys in the south. Dual authorities and allegiances can be only disasterous. At a minimum the military wing of HA must go and its political wing marginalized.

[richard]

It seems like SOMEONE is desparately in need of a brain transplant. If he is a typical Hezbollah supporter, it is understandable why becoming a martyr is the best he can hope to accomplish.

Was he foolish enough to believe this? He is either delusional or lives in some alternate reality where Hezbollah writes the rules of the universe. With his superficial analysis of history he then declares use of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima (yes, a spell checker is your friend ;-) was immoral. I am sure there are plenty of Iranians who think just like him. And then they wonder why others in the world are concerned about them developing technology that will enable them to build atomic bombs.

At this point, I must remember an old saying about 'not allowing babies to play with razors.'

[Kolya]

Just out of interest but how many Lebanese think like the "Someone" poster? I am encouraged to read the posts by the other posters on this blog. But I have a strong suspicion that more Lebanese think like "Someone" than like the more reasonable posters here. I would say the same for much of the Arab world in general. I think it will take several generations before the majority of Arabs stop thinking like "Someone". Much blood will be split on the way.

[someone]

fubar,

"The real question, if you are human, is this:

What is so important to one person, or group of people, that it justifies crossing into another country, killing that country’s soldiers, kidnapping two of that country’s soldiers, and firing Katyushas into that country to create a diversion (all acts of war), and at the same time taking one’s own country into war?"

I cant claim that you are not logic in your posts.But i will answer you:

The fact that millitants crossed the borders and captured soldiers and kill others ,was not suprising,since there is no peace-threaty between Lebanon and "israel" ,and these actions can occur in anytime,even "israel" can cross borders in order to kill palestinian leaders or "terrorists" ,so like you said the war continues.

"israel" neglect or want to neglect problems it has with Lebanon,and lebanon still claim (in 7-point plan) that Lebanon still have territory to get back and prisoneers to free.Siniora knew that Nasrallah will not disarm since "israel" still or will neglect these points,and he wanted the international community to at least mention these demands in the resolution to end the conflict, the international community (The US) chose the way of "israel" and just neglected views of Siniora,and instead put pressure on him to accpet whatever the resolution said and forget most of his points.

Siniora now was helpless,all he had to do was to accept the 1701 resolution ONLY to stop the war,and not solve problems,all he could do now is to apply what he can apply in the resolution (sending the army south),as for disarmament it is not possible,because the causes of the existence of the armed group was neglected in the famous resolution.

I claim that this resolution came to give another round of war (cessation of hostilities and not of fire) ,so Nasrallah and Siniora reading this resolution "knew" there will be other rounds and they have to forget global solutions as they view it ,and prepare for another round,so the group will still be armed ,waiting for this round,Siniora cant just order a disarmament right now,both sides are preparing for this coming war.

A good question is :

Why not solve the problem globally ? why play strategic games ,then distribute responsibilities ?

[someone]

richard,

"I am sure there are plenty of Iranians who think just like him. And then they wonder why others in the world are concerned about them developing technology that will enable them to build atomic bombs."

I dont know if iranian think like me ,the problem is in your thinking .

Even if Iran wants to develop an atomic bomb ,do you think the aim is to drop it on "israel" ?,remember that most of people living there are arabs and muslims.If "israel" has 200 such bombs, was the aim to drop them on arabic capitals in order to end the conflict forever ? i dont think so, these bombs are used to maintain the security feeling among jews ,or to prevent a big war in the region.At the same time iranians want to have same feeling of security ,or to prevent war on them, they already have seen what happened in Iraq,they just dont want to be the next target .IF Ahmedi Najad declare he want the destruction of "israel" then dont forget the US declared the destruction of Iran as it is now,so the threats came from both sides.

[JoseyWales]

Someone

Even if Iran wants to develop an atomic bomb ,do you think the aim is to drop it on "israel" ?,

Gee, Rafsanjani talked about that even before nutty Ahmadinejad came to the fore.

Why don't you believe the words you hear? Think killing muslims is going to deter them? Are you deaf and blind?

Check out Rafsanjani again (Iran kills all the Israelis, muslims lose a few million out of a billion).

IF Ahmedi Najad declare he want the destruction of "israel" then dont forget the US declared the destruction of Iran as it is now,so the threats came from both sides.

????
You are a true idiot.

[someone]

Joseywales,

You dont deserve a response,and not either why you dont deserve it,check this out.

[will]

hitler destroyed stalilngrad but he did not win.

the Israeli army was not able to successfully penetrate past the Thermopylae of Bint Jbael, Ras Maroon, and that third town.

Man does not live with bread alone.

The destruction was not wrought by HA but by the IAF ignoring the Fourth Geneva Convention. The contributing factor was George Bush resupplying them with bombs and fuel while holding off a UN ceasefire for 30 days.

You have to admire Aoun for not being a Quisling such as yourself. The future of Christian Lebanon lies with harmonizing with the Muslims, both Sunna and Shia.

The initial aid money is not for rebuilding but for rent. It is not just for Shia. It's available for anybody that lost a house.

Best Wishes

[fubar]

Someone,

You say, “I claim that this resolution came to give another round of war (cessation of hostilities and not of fire), so Nasrallah and Siniora reading this resolution "knew" there will be other rounds and they have to forget global solutions as they view it, and prepare for another round, so the group will still be armed , waiting for this round, Siniora can’t just order a disarmament right now, both sides are preparing for this coming war.”

I agree completely that this resolution will only lead to another round of war. However, it was not Israel that cried for a cessation of hostilities/truce. It was Siniora and Nasrallah that were begging for a truce. We have this lull in the war thanks to them. And you are 100 percent correct that both sides are rearming and preparing for the war to continue.

You ask, “Why not solve the problem globally? Why play strategic games, then distribute responsibilities?”

Short answer: Too many players. There is no global solution acceptable to ALL parties. And certainly not one which can be worked out in a matter of a week or two.

You must consider Nasrallah more carefully. Nasrallah has stated that it is good that Jews gather in Israel. It makes it easier because then Hezbollah does not have to hunt them down across the whole world.

These are not the words of a man who cares about Shebaa Farms, or 3 Lebanese prisoners, or any 7 point plan. Those are just the immediate excuses. If they are solved, Nasrallah will just invent new ones. Nasrallah’s objective is the destruction of Israel, not Lebanese sovereignty. He has learned well from Ahmadinejad.

After watching this fiasco, I have come to the conclusion that even if Siniora and gang wanted to end this war and create a free and peaceful Lebanon, they have no power over Hezbollah, they knew it, and they are just playing for time hoping something will change. They assured the French that Nasrallah would disarm below the Litani. He has not, he will not, and they cannot make him. They knowingly made promises they could not keep. Thus, they have now reneged on their promise to the French and 1701, so France will is doing the same. You cannot make agreements to solve problems, local or global, with people who have no honor. Nasrallah has no honor and now we all know that the Lebanese politicians have none as well.

There is only one solution left and it will begin when Israel chooses.

[mnuez]

WTF?!?!?!?!!!!!!

Say it aint so.

Reports are coming in of Israel having conducting some aerial assault against Hezbollah.

If this is in fact true there are only two possibilities.

A) For some reason this assault was a necessary and fine idea (like what if we were destroying a suitcase nuke? or bombing from the left so as to distract the captors of our soldiers and then grab them to safety from the right?). Of course the odds of this are about 1 in 1000.

B) EHUD OLMERT IS AN EVIL GODDAMNED SON OF A BITCH!!!!!!!

Yeah, maybe this was technically legal by the UN agreement (or not) but that makes no difference at all. If in fact what's being reported as an IDF assault is true, and it's nothing more than the same type of assaults that Israel conducted uselessly for a month, then it's ridiculous and insane to do this. It accomplishes nothing good and a tremendous amount of evil in the eyes of the world and makes Israel look so bad so as to be almost unjustifiable by her friends. It gives Hizballah and Syria and Iran the opportunity to look like they're "responding" and ---- oh fuck. it's just sick.

And WHY exactly would shit-head Olmert do such a thing? Cynical, lying, careerist, father-of-draftdodgers, selfish Olmert? Because right now everyone in Israel wants his head. They want him out of the prime minister's chair yesterday and preferably in prison. And so he needs some sort of distraction. He needs to create a crisis, recreate a war. What a bastard!

Now don't get me wrong. If Menachem Begin were to come back from the dead (as the man that he was bfeore his wife took ill and died - say, as he was in his thirties) and declared a war unto victory against Hezbollah, I would support it wholeheartedly and would be honored to serve under him in that war. Getting rid of Nazis is always a fine thing to do. But Olmert isn't getting rid of anything!! If in fact these reports of an unprovoked Israeli attack are true then it's nothing but Olmert and Peretz trying to retain the honor and power that they now have. They're not killing the rabid dog but kicking it so that it'll come after the schoolchildren and they can get a lot of press by then fighting said dog and "protecting" the children.

I hate measly politicians so much. I so so so so so hate them. Careerist politicians are the lowest of the low and should be jailed for their efforts.

(If in fact, etc. etc. . .) then God Damn Olmert.

[another someone]

"(something about honor)...and now we all know that the Lebanese politicians have none as well.

My god fubar you you have just discovered sliced bread. :P

I don't mean to poke fun at you, but it makes me laugh when people discover facts established a million or so years ago.

Cheers buddy, I enjoy your rant.

[fubar]

another someone,

Hey, I'm late to internal Lebanese politics. Guilty as charged.

Glad you enjoy. :-)

[R]

Fubar,

Not to defend lebanese politicians or anything, but politicians everywhere are full of you know what, the ones in Lebanon happen to be especially good at being full of it. Thats (1), (2) is the use of the word "honor". I have to point out that I really really despise it, whether it is used by HA or anyone else.
ITs just tooooooo easy to whip up words like honor or dignity either to make oneself seem grandiose or his opponents seem petty... Other than that, welcome to politics in Lebanon. Its all about what is perceived not what is true, but that is true everywhere isn't it ?

[e]

I have to disagree with Fubar on the timing of the second round. It will come but it will take a while. HA are not in a position to react now. Israel will continue trying to assasinate Nasrallah and other leaders in HA. Expect more commando raids like the one today. What is HA going to do? Start another war right now and have all the Shia move out of the south again? Will the other factions in Lebanon agree to another blockade and the related economic hardships? Please correct me if I am mistaken, but I think that if HA initiates another war too soon, it may lead to a civil war in Lebanon.

All in all the situation does not look good. It doesn't seem that an environment condusive for investment is going to emerge in Lebanon soon. Until HA disarms, Lebanon and Israel are going to be losers. Israel is going to get a right wing government and increased defense spending as well as much more reserve duty for everybody (thank you Nasrallah for all your gifts! :) ) As for HA, their twisted logic is such that I don't know what is good for them anymore, perhaps "someone" can enlighten us. By the way "someone", did you already get your $12,000? Are you going to buy us a round?

[fubar]

R,

Call it what you like...
They knowingly made promises they could not keep. I call that a lack of honor when I am trying to be polite about it.

Lebanon is now worse off, not better. No one will believe them in the future.

You can argue that all politicians are full of shit all day long. But shit rolls downhill and Lebanon has secured its place at the bottom of the hill.

What a damn shame.

[R]

To those of you who are interested in internal Lebanese politics and their connections to regional matters in the last 6 years, I am translating and posting - in stages - an article by Ziad Majid, which is both a summary and an analysis of the important events in Lebanon since May 2000 here (Voices on The Wind).
I think that a little discussion on those topics would be more than justified, and would go along way into helping all of us digest those events.

[fubar]

e,

You are right. Israel will continue its work in Lebanon. As I have previously said, the timing of the next round will be on Israel's timetable. You are more likely to have a better understanding of when that will be than I.

[fubar]

R,

I am interested and I have read it. How many installments will there be?

BTW - your visual verification is not working in your comments section (at least it was not working for me).

[someone]

e,

"As for HA, their twisted logic is such that I don't know what is good for them anymore, perhaps "someone" can enlighten us. By the way "someone", did you already get your $12,000? Are you going to buy us a round? "

This is not the good time to talk about the next round,why in hurry ? :-)

It is time to take care of civilians in the south.

I think "israel" need much more time so "study" intensively ,before going to the next round ,to avoid a second costly failure, it is time for a political rearrangement now,and i think both governments will be changed before the next round,with olmert out of the game , and nasrallah with a stronger position.

Maybe after the next round you will need 12.000$ yourelf,in order to build your house,you have to wait a bit before that :-)

e,

"someone" does not get $12,000. "someone" is safe and sound in Sweden.

"someone",
Are you going to buy us a round? means are you going to buy us a drink with your $12,000.

And the fact that it is not good to talk about another round (in the war) right now is exactly why Israel should be thinking about it right now.

[R]

Thanks fubar,
I'll check the verification.
Its going to be 3 or 4 installments. One for each major landmark and its aftermaths.

[someone]

|,

or whatever it means,

"And the fact that it is not good to talk about another round (in the war) right now is exactly why Israel should be thinking about it right now."

Yes ,"israel" sould think about why it is not good to talk about another round,because olmert has no credit to go to another round ,he has played much now, and the game is over for him,even the next governor,has to study the failure of olmert in order to get better score next time.

"israel" should take lessons from USA in Iraq,now both USA and "israel" are studying hardly in Iraq and Lebanon,before going to war on Iran .

As for Sweden ,i dont know how you have chosen this country,but maybe you refer to Lebanon as the new peaceful Sweden ,that has and never use its army :-)

[Anon in Beirut]

Perhaps I am missing something Abu Kias, but I just don't see Hizballah's reign as over.

Even Jumblatt's speech, which I was expecting soon after hostilities ended, surprised and upset me. I was expecting him to lay into Nasrallah a lot more than he did. Instead, he seems to have been choosing his words carefully, making sure he did not upset Nasrallah and HA supporters.

And then there is the Cabinet decision. I could be mistaken but I thought that the Lebanese Cabinet had decided to allow Hizballah to keep their weopons South of the Litani, as long as those weapons remained "hidden". Also, Hizballah will not be dissarmed in any manner North of the Litani pending futher "discussions" (and after the National Dialogue we all know what that means.... never).

I just don't see how these actions taken by the Lebanese Government are paving the way for the end of Nasrallah's reign as you claim.