The Decapitator's "Victory" Speech

Hizbulla chief, Hassan Nasralla or the Decapitator, as Abu Kais likes to call him, has made yet another TV appearance declaring a strategic and historic victory. He had a lot to say about his appreciation for the sacrifices of the Lebanese people, and of the HA fighters. More importantly and dangerously, his beardedness has declared the launch of a drive to rebuild 15,000 housing units and to provide funds for families that have lost their homes to relocate while the reconstruction procedes...

The most dangerous aspect of his speech, by far the most frightening of all, is his reference to Lebanese politicians who spoke out against him during the battle. He played on sectarian sensitivities highlighting the fact that most of the casualties and destruction were in Shia territories. He stressed that these politicians made a "mistake" by publicizing the internal debate in time of conflict, affecting the psychology of civilians being slaughtered and of the fighters. He made a direct reference to Jumblatt without naming him.

Moving on in the list of dangerously inflammatory statements the decapitator flung in our faces. He addressed the issue of HA weapon's, reminding (read threatening) that HA came out victorious and that not even Israel has gone so far as to expect HA's disarming. He asked those who want HA disarmed whether or not they brought back the Shebaa farms or the prisoners, and whether they are capable of protecting Lebanon. He dismissed the concept of disarming HA as too hasty and simplistic. He agreed to spreading the sovereignty of the state, which he said they were part of, but said that he wants a strong and just state to spread its sovereignty. He the asked if this state fulfills those requirements. 

Finally, he asked that the debate be moved to its natural position (the hiwar). He reminded that the two ingredients to the success of Lebanon are the resistance and national unity, asking that we not waste such assets. He described those as precursors to building the strong state he "desires".

In other words, the decapitator is in attack mode, his threats and his bullying continue at all but an accelerated pace. He has declared "victory" on both the frontlines and domestically and is acting as such. He will unabashedly compete with the state for reconstruction, he will not disarm, he has threatened the politicians of Lebanon demanding "unity". The man is talking like a representative of a state, his growing power becoming a threat to a sovereign Lebanon.

We are back to where we started before this war, except that we have a more emboldened HA maneuvering for the upper hand in Lebanon. It is time for democratic Lebanon to act, the initiative cannot be left in the hands of these thugs. 

Comments

[bad vilbel]

This is exactly what I've been afraid of. I'm not very optimistic right now.

[bad vilbel]

This is exactly what I've been afraid of. I'm not very optimistic right now.

[fubar]

The only difference between Lebanon and Czechoslovakia is that Lebanon begged for it.

Lebanon could not bear the human toll that was the cost of its freedom. It could not trust Israel or the US. Lebanon's history haunts it and it is that history which allows Nasrallah to outflank the Lebanese government. Lebanon now continues its internal struggle, not just with Nasrallah, but with Syria and Iran as well. Who does Lebanon have on its side to counter Hezbollah, Syria and Iran?

Nasrallah claims victory to mask the damage he has sustained. His gang is still armed but he is the weakest he has been in years. It is now or never.

[Oceanguy]

Lebanon is now certainly Hizbollahland. Lebanon didn't have the stomach to confront them before July 12, and doesn't have the will nor the ability to confront them now.

Instead non-Hizbollah Lebanon vilifies and demonizes the only regional entity that shares their dream. It's over for a free Lebanon... unless Hizbollah blows it and resumes hostilities with Israel. Freedom-loving Lebanese ought to hope that happens.

[EvilConCarne]

What was the direct reference that nasrallah made to Jumblatt?

I feared that Hizbullah would be emboldened after an Isreali failure....the true war begins now.

[Solomon2]

It is time for democratic Lebanon to act, the initiative cannot be left in the hands of these thugs.

It's all in Lebanon's court now, isn't it? I have no idea what the Lebanese and their government will choose to do, but if they want help disarming Hezbollah, I think a substantial fraction of the Western world is willing - if not quite ready - to help.

[lisoosh]

Good Luck.

[5BrainCellsMoreThanU]

The Hariri is assasinated by we don't know who (probably the Mossad). The US funds the Cedar Revolution and Syria departs Lebanon. Lebanon is Free, free for Israel to invade. Lebanon is defenceless except for Nasrallah's Hezballah. It's textbook. Whoever funds them, they are the ONLY army that defended Lebanon. Israel needs up to the Latani River for it's water and fulfill the Zionist's dream and Hezballah are the only ones with balls bigger than it's enemy. If the Lebanese National Army is to act like an army then they first need to get bigger balls and defend yourself. Maybe when the existing Gov't accumulates more debt for the country, they should try buying some Katushas rather than line their pockets with gold.

5BrainCellsMoreThanU, when you came up with this name you must have been addressing a donkey beacause from what you have written you seem lacking in grey matter.

Great battle your buddies put up. I just can't understand how Lebanon was destroyed!!! Maybe we were hit by an earthquake and we didn't realize it.

Oh yes the Israelis had to wait for the Syrians to get out to attack, because we all saw how eager they were to come to our aid.

You know there is a number of channels on TV other than Manar, because you risk losing your 5 braincells with the heavy brainwashing you are dealt.

[Ghassan Karam]

I am gratified somewhat when I read many of the posts on the various Lebanese blogs. There are many that are currently calling for the disarming of HA and questioning what will happen if HA is not disarmed. You see for a while it appeared that the camp calling for disarming HA was on the verge of being declared an endangered specie.

May I attempt, again, to highlight a few issues that are either not mentioned at all or just barely hinted at in the discussions.
MILITARY WING of HA
(1) The armed wing of HA became unacceptable the day that Israel pulled out of the area that it occupied in Lebanon.

(2) It was the duty and responsibility of the Lebanese government to have insisted on disarming HA and deploying the Lebanese army at the southern border. The person who is the most responsible for this failure is Emile Lahoud.

(3) The presence of armed HA militia was unacceptable prior to the war and thus is unacceptable irrespective of the results of the war. No level of achievments can lift a group of vigilantes that does not respect legitimate authority out of the area of lawlessness. We are not questioning their bravery or military effectivness, just their legal right to operate on our behalf.

(4) Based on the above 1, 2, &3 HA has to be disarmed simply because a civil society cannot thrive if it allows in its midst a private group to farm out its own fiefdom and to make a mockery of sovereignty.

POLITICAL WING of HA

(1) Under an open society different groups should have the ability to preach any philosophy or ideology as long as their actions do not infringe on the rights of others. This is often described by the saying your rights end where my nose begins.

(2) HA should have all the rights that are enjoyed by any other political group to campaign , disseminate their ideas and be protected by the law.

(3) Being recognized as a legitimate party does not imply automatic partnership in government. HA has to be satisfied in performing the function of the opposition party as long as they do not represent a majority of elected officials.

(4) Keeping HA out of the government is again based onan elemental idea. No group can be expected to play a constructive role in promoting goals that are antithetical to what it holds to be valuable.

The above principles are fair and democratic. HA gets the chance to influence events but as long as its allegiance is not to the state and as long as it does not believe in civil society, human rights and the freedom of the individual then HA must be denied the role of being a junior partner in the government it seeks to change. If HA becomes the majority then they become entitled to run the government.

Conclusion
Military wing has to be dissolved under all scenarios but the political wing could go on but it must be asked promptly to vacate the ministries that its representatives occupy. Any solution that does not embrace the above two legs will only hasten the death of the Lebanese republic.

[R]

Ghassan,

I totally agree with you, but if thats the path we want to proceed on, we need what the Israelis called "teeth". The entire non HA lebanese population is outgunned not to mention inferior in military resolve and zealoutry. I have no doubt in my mind that HA, if threatened, will shoot. Do we have the means to shoot back? Should we even consider that an option?
I am not claiming to have a solution. Only a dilemma, and an observation about a balance of power that is grotesquely skewed against us.
As people who believe in democracy and a civil society, I think we should rally together, organize and formulate a game-plan.
I think you are right that we need to be more vocal, and that our politicians need to grow some guts and start speaking up. We cannot be threatened like this, our hopes stolen from us...

[Hassan]

I have to admit it took me several hours to recover after Nasrallah's "victory" speach today. He basically threatened anybody that goes against his wishes and declared that those people will be jeapordizing Lebanon's unity. So to sum up, he said that we should either agree with him or run the risk of breaking up the country. This is the state that Lebanon is left in after these bloody 34 days. Nasrallah apparently makes no mistakes, he is always victorious, civilians don't count as losses to him, and the fact that his fighters survived eventhough the civilians they were supposed to protect died gives him the right to claim an unprecedented victory in the history of the Arab and Islamic world (Lebanon is just a footnote in that history). That my friends is Nasrallah's rhetoric, he has managed to hijack our will as a Lebanese population and has branded any citizen that disagrees with him a traitor and destroyer of the "national unity". The unity to acquiesce to his wishes.

We are at a crossroads now, we either give in to Nasrallah's wishes and become in the near future "The Shiite Republic of Lebanon" or we stand up to him and face the horrible consequences that await in a fight (political or physical) for a free, democratic, and prosperous Lebanon. Sadly, the means are either genocide or separation of the Lebanese state. But who is willing to fight? HA has drawn blood in this war, they sure are ready to spill some more. The rest of the Lebanese are not and Nasrallah knows it. He is probably relying on it for complete complacency. The key is still to cut off his supply lines, i.e. Syria and Iran.

[dougjnn]

5BrainCellsMoreThanU

Whoever funds them, they are the ONLY army that defended Lebanon.

Some defense! Yuup, it's obvious. That's what Lebanon needs more of.

Lebanon’s in ruins because of that defense. A thousand or more of her civilians are dead. Many, many thousand injured. Her roads are mostly impassable.

It was Hezbollah’s rocket buildup and rocket attacks and raids and finally the July 12 rocket volleys followed by the cross border soldier snatch that brought this wonderful war down on Lebanon’s head. Some defense.

But wait! That’s ok because July 12 was all part of Hezbollah’s glorious “defense” of Lebanese “honor” over the dubious Sebaa farms issue, a tiny bit of land, that the UN says is Syrian.

Real good thinking. Real good defense

What, oh what, would Lebanon have done if it hadn’t been blessed with that Hezbollah defense?

But wait. Hezbollah killed maybe 200 Israelis. HEY, it was ALL WORTH IT.

Sure will be smart of Lebanon to enable that great defense to keep the weapons it has proved it can be trusted to use so judiciously.

Yup, an Iranian armed Hezbolla sure does improve Lebanon’s security!

The proof is everywhere to be seen.

[bad vilbel]

R,

I agree with Ghassan, and I agree with your depiction of the dilemma.

I don't claim to have a solution. But the non-HA Lebanese DOES have 70,000 troops. Outgunned as they may be. They are not outnumbered and the gun deficiency can be remedied fairly quickly if the US and such western powers put their mind to it.

At this point, I hate to put forth drastic measures, but I'm afraid that we are going to have to do just that, unless HA magically starts compromising.
The days of "appeasing" and dialoguing with a force who is not willing to meet you half way should be over.

I know it might seem drastic, but I think drastic is the only way to go if HA doesn't willfully compromise.

[bad vilbel]

Hassan,

I share your sentiment. And I think that the Lebanese people as a whole HAVE TO stand up to Nassrallah now. Even if it means civil war. Our country is lost otherwise. It's that simple.
No more wimpy "dialogues" where one party compromises and the other one never does. That's no dialogue.

Take on HA. NOW! While the situation is still messy and they haven't had a change to regroup. Send the 70,000 Lebanese Army to disarm Hezballah, even if it means more bloodshed. And if the people of Southern Lebanon do not want the authority of the Lebanese State, then draw a new line at the Litani and leave the peoples south of there to fend for themselves. Let's see how well they like being invaded again. Specially when they're not allowed to run away northwards this second time around.

I apologize if this comment seems extreme, or insensitive. But enough is enough. I want my country back. And if a certain group doesn't want to cooperate, they can go fight their battles in their own backyards and leave me out of it.

[dougjnn]

bad vilbel, R --

Hezbollah has two types of weapons, from a strategic standpoint, 1) terror weapons (longer range inaccurate rockets), and invasion resistance (and civil war fighting) weapons – the rest, including anti tank rockets and infantry arms.

Siniora and the rest of Lebanese society should press Hezbollah for a phased disarming. First to show go faith they should give up their Katyusha and longer range terror rockets, which are a large part of why Israel counter-attacked (in truth by far the largest part of why and especially why it went on so long). They should agree to not resist the Lebanese army with foreign assistance guarding the borders and ports to enforce the embargo of new arms for militias. In the second phase if Israel agrees to the keep points of the Siniora 7 point plan including the prisoner exchange, the landmine map, and agrees to hand over Shebaa farms once Hezbollah has in fact disarmed, the ONCE ISRAEL has completely withdrawn from all of Lebanon other than Shebaa Hezbollah should begin completely disarming. It should do so by handing it’s equipment over to the Lebanese army. Hezbollah fighters can also train the Lebanese army and become integrated into it, but not as separate units. When the disarming is verified by UNIFIL lead by the French, Shebaa farms is transferred to Lebanese army control.

[bad vilbel]

dougjn,

Sure. Except I highly doubt HA is gonna accept that.

[kevin peters]

For those who blame all Lebanese for the actions of Hezbollah. Before this war started the LA was in no position to kick out Hezbollah, they were still trying to kick out Syria and they were under the threat of an Syrian re-invasion if they did not allow Hezbollah into the governemnt. If, and this is a huge if, there is a "robust" U.N force this will be the opportunity for the LA to force Hezbollah to become fully Lebanese and not the advance force of Iran and Syria. Judging from the History of UNIFIL in Lebanon this may be complete wishfull thinking but this is the only hope for Lebanon to become a true country, independent of all foreign medling, West and East. My fear is that Nasrallah has no wish to share power with all the factions in Lebanon and will eventually go after the new "foreign occupiers" and attack the U.N. forces so that he can achieve power and help Syria come back into Lebanon, the foreign occupation that Nasrallah likes.

[Ghassan Karam]

R, Bad Vilbel,
I don't think that we need a shoot out with HA. We need a strong government that is willing to take tough measures and a citizenry that will demonstrate its resolve to back up the government. Simply stated a few major public demonstrations to back up the politicians coupled with a decisive government who will just declare openly its intention to deploy the army and exercise its monopoly on arms in the country. Whenever and whoever opposes these laws will have to be held accountable by the public at large and even the international community. Don't forget that 1559 carries with the force of law. The UNSC can choose to send an international army to implement it. Our politicians however, need to be cautious. They have to stop playing the silly tribal games and act to protect the whole country. It might not be a bad idea to even form a national party, which they failed to do 18 months ago.

I am of the opinion that a combination of measures that are clear , fair and just will go go far in restoring some of our fundamentals as a nascent democracy and will be difficult to oppose even by HA. If we fail to demand such actions from our politicians then they will not act on their own. The results of such failure are very clear; either "The Shiite Republic of Lebanon " as Hassan predicted will emerge or maybe even worse a fiefdom of Iran.

[Hassan]

Doug,
Sounds like a good idea. Only problem is Nasrallah brushed it off today and asked the Lebanese politicians to address him as a victor from now on. You're missing the point here, Nasrallah doesn't care about showing good faith, he has none. He doesn't want to win Shebaa back diplomatically, he wants it back through fighting even if it takes him another 40 years.

Bad Vilbel,
How many soldiers, officers, and generals in the Lebanese army are sympathetic with HA? The army broke up once before, it can easily happen again. The other question is what will we do with the Syrian army when it decides to enter Lebanon to support HA, and as a result, how will we deal with the Israeli army when it invades again as another player in this new Lebanese civil war?
I'm not sure a civil war is the answer. Of course, there is a possibility that if HA sees that the rest of the Lebanese are ready to fight them they might start truly negotiating. But it's only a possibility.
I don't have an answer to this mess either.

[Hassan]

bad vilbel,
I also forgot to mention that the FPM (see tayyar.org) just issued a statement "warning the government against miscalculations and submitting to external pressure that aims to destroy the national unity in an attempt to implement some external plots that are not in favor of the Lebanese state"
Aoun is at it again.

[Bad Vilbel]

Hassan,

I don't have an answer either. But I just keep asking myself the following: At what point do you stop "negotiating" with someone who doesn't want to negotiate?
I mean, we were negotiating before 7/12, supposedly. But only one party was willing to make concessions (the anti-syrian camp). Negotiations and dialogue take two.
What do you do if you keep trying to negotiate, and HA sticks to their pre 7/12 stance? You just give up and hand them the key to Lebanon? At some point, you have to do SOMETHING.

Ghassan,

HA has shown that no amount of "public demonstration" will sway them. We saw it on March 14 2005. A million lebanese demonstrated, what did HA do? Counter-demonstration.
What makes you think it will be any different?
Say a million Lebanese take to the streets tomorrow demanding HA disarm. Nasrallah will mobilize his community to come out en masse (a million of their own, or close to) and pledge loyalty to the "resistance". (Tell me I'm wrong! I dare you!)

Then what?

[Bad Vilbel]

Hassan,

I don't have an answer either. But I just keep asking myself the following: At what point do you stop "negotiating" with someone who doesn't want to negotiate?
I mean, we were negotiating before 7/12, supposedly. But only one party was willing to make concessions (the anti-syrian camp). Negotiations and dialogue take two.
What do you do if you keep trying to negotiate, and HA sticks to their pre 7/12 stance? You just give up and hand them the key to Lebanon? At some point, you have to do SOMETHING.

Ghassan,

HA has shown that no amount of "public demonstration" will sway them. We saw it on March 14 2005. A million lebanese demonstrated, what did HA do? Counter-demonstration.
What makes you think it will be any different?
Say a million Lebanese take to the streets tomorrow demanding HA disarm. Nasrallah will mobilize his community to come out en masse (a million of their own, or close to) and pledge loyalty to the "resistance". (Tell me I'm wrong! I dare you!)

Then what?

[R]

Ghassan,

Don't get me wrong, I am in no way advocating violence. I just want to make the point that you cannot push an armed faction into a corner, when it has the option to shoot, but you don't. I do believe in the need for a national party (more than one perhaps?), as well as in the need to stop acting like a tribal society. What I am worried about, and what experience has shown us, is that both sides here have the ability to mobilize huge demonstrations, one of them in a manner reminiscent of fascist regimes. As for the international community, I really don't know how committed they are to Lebanon. Would they fight if the need arose ? Highly unlikely.
I think that Hassan is right that the supply lines from Syria and Iran need to be cut off and fast.

[Bad Vilbel]

Sorry for the double post...

[Hassan]

You're right Bad Vilbel. I'm waiting to see what the official response will be from March 14. If they concede now, it means it's over. We're bound for a collision course in the very near future.
I'm tired of this country of ours. Every sect will try to dominate the others at some point in history only to face a civil war which weakens the powerful sect only to give rise to another that will take on the same endeavour. When will we ever learn to see each other as equal citizens?

[dougjnn]

Hassan

Sounds like a good idea. Only problem is Nasrallah brushed it off today and asked the Lebanese politicians to address him as a victor from now on. You're missing the point here, Nasrallah doesn't care about showing good faith, he has none. He doesn't want to win Shebaa back diplomatically, he wants it back through fighting even if it takes him another 40 years.

I realize this is a possibility. Just not sure it’s a certainty. Not sure it’s impossible to maneuver around Hasrallah.

I'm not sure a civil war is the answer.

Then what is, in light of the first quote from you I snipped?

[dougjnn]

R-

As for the international community, I really don't know how committed they are to Lebanon. Would they fight if the need arose ?

No. But they would arm the Lebanese army (the parts that didn’t break off an join Hez) in a fight to disarm Hezbollah. Israel might well hit Syria w/airpower particularly if the Lebaneze government asked it to, if Syria invaded to aid Hezbollah. (I realize in light of history the Lebanese government is going to be unlike to ask for Israeli ground force help (invasion), which Israel would be eager to do anyway.

[charlie]

During the so called National dialogue, observers were wondering if Nasrallah is going to choose the Lebanese state and assimilate or stay the course with Iran and Syria and deliver Lebanon to a selfish destruction. Well, the July 12 events went down and the rest is history. Nasrallah’s behavior as well as his rhetoric leaves us provides the answers to his choice: Iran-Syria and their agendas. I just can’t see how the rest of Lebanon is going to go along with that, which leads me to believe a new civil war is in the making and more destruction for Lebanon is in store.

Nasrallah has pushed the state to a corner. With Lahoud remaining at the helm and his son in law is leading the ministry of defense, A Siniora order to stand up and confront HA will most likely result in a break up of the army. A decision to go to war (and in this case a civil war) is never an easy or desirable thing, but sometimes it is the only thing left. If this is to take place, I hope it doesn't happen under the leadership of many fragmented militia's. The anti-HA groups, need to rally behind the state to have one legal force in their effort to dismantle the cultists and the outlaws

There is no more place in Lebanese politics for the “no winner-no loser” scenario. This issue has got to be resolved once and for all!!

[Hassan]

Civil war is not an answer because I'm not sure we can win it. If HA is defeated other groups can emerge. Syria also controls several Palestinian groups, Islamist groups, the Baath and Syrian nationalist parties,... Granted they're not as powerful as HA, but together they do constitute a considerable force.
That's why I think the target should be regime change in Syria at the very least, or an expanded war that includes Syria and Iran.

[bad vilbel]

Hassan,

Can we afford to wait for regime change in Iran and Syria? And the instability they will inevitably bring to the region?
I'm not so sure having a civil war in Syria (and make no mistake, there will be one if the Assad regime is taken out) is good for Lebanon in any way.

Again, I am not advocating civil war per se, but if a certain segment of your population simply does not want to comply or give in to the rule of law, what do you do? You either surrender to them, or you tell to go **** themselves. There really is no in-between unless both sides are willing to talk.

Ultimately, either the shia community tempers Nasrallah and forces him to compromise, or it really has no business being part of Lebanon. Don't you think?

(And I don't mean this in a sectarian way at all, I mean it very matter of factly)

[Reya]

I'm so angry with Hizballah. I detest their fascist organization and their hero worship. I'm not Lebanese but my heart is breaking for Lebanon. As if a long uncivil war was not enough, they needed this horror!

Whatever happens, you can't be silent. Don't be intimidated. Civil action, reaching out, fighting ideologically and culturally is the only way to defeat these bastards. It's going to be a long fight. They will bribe their poor constituencies with money and "rebuilding" their houses and maybe soon they will claim they can bring back the dead, all 1000 of them.

Ma3lesh. Fight back. With words.

[Ghassan Karam]

hassan,
One of the reasons that I have often been very critical of Siniora and his cabinet isbecause they have not even attempted to stop the constant flow of arms from Iran via Syria. It has been in the press that the huge shipments of sophisticated weapons that were delivered to HA during this past March had the full blessing and knowledge of the Lebanese authorities.
I am in full agreement with you, the government neeeds to stop the resupply, show openly its dissatisfaction with Iran and put HA on the defensive. I am still not convinced that they will start a civil war only because the government is implementing the law.The PM can prepare the public by making a few major speeches to the nation in which he will outline a plan designed to allow the central government to perform its duties etc... If HA fighters decide to just go on the offensive for no reason except their objection to be treated equally to other ciizens then I believe that will lead to lots of defections from their own ranks.

I believe that it is folly not to do the right thing because one is not sure of the reaction of the other party. At times we have to take the risk of standing up for what is right. I am reminded of the trite saying in the US : "Freedom is not Free". We don't know how HA will reacy but we do know that we should not compromise on certain basic principles.

[Hassan]

I hope they do Ghassan. I really hope they do.

[bad vilbel]

Amen, Ghassan, Amen.

I have read your criticism of Siniora in the past, and tend to agree with a lot of it. And it's some of that which leads me to fear that the Lebanese government is still going to be meek and incapable of standing up to Nasrallah.

Siniora, and a large chunk of the Lebanese political establishment are STILL living in the 1970s, talking about "arabism" and "the palestinian cause" and "being the last country to sign a peace treaty with Israel".
These now-empty slogans need to go away. I need to start hearing more talk about the LEBANESE cause before I'm convinced we're not heading for another civil war.
Why is it that Hassan Nassrallah can come out and say exactly what he means, and exactly what he thinks, without having to mince his words, but the rest of our political establishment is STILL too scared to tell it like it is. The taboo about peace with israel and the palestinian cause is beyond ridiculous. We're all talking about this stuff in the blogosphere, but our politicians are still using the language of the 1970s and 80s.
It's time to join the rest of us into the 21st century...

[Charlie]

Hassan,

Advocating a regime change in Syria is something Jumblatt and his father before him tried to sell, but there were no takers. Lebanon can not afford to wait till all the stars line up before it cleans up the country.

If Nasrallah was about to change his ways, he would have by now. But instead he continued to come up with one excuse after another to continue to operate outside the
State. Unfortunately that leaves the Lebanese with only one option is to try and take him down by force.

[fubar]

Sorry to butt in on internal politics, but if you are planning a revolution...

You guys have to think big. Follow the money. Iranian Hezbollah is nothing without the money to rebuild and provide financial assistance to the displaced. The Government must set up a centralized agency to handle all relief money coming into the country so that it, and not Iranian Hezbollah, can supervise the financial aid and rebuilding. This would be the ME and EU money. Iran and Syria will not contribute big to the govt., just token amounts. The govt. must outmanuever Iranian Hezbollah in the aid game.

Israel will take care of the embargo in the near term. It will preemptively strike anything it thinks is arms for Iranian Hezbollah.

The enhanced UNIFIL is at the beck and call of the Leb. govt. If it wants the Leb. Army to disarm Iranian Hezbollah, and asks UNIFIL to help, there you have it. Works for the arms embargo from Syrian border as well. UNIFIL gets to do what the Leb. govt. gives it permission to do with the Leb. Army. (Of course, France will cry foul, but the others will not.)

Leb. Army is between 70,000 and 80,000 - unfortunately half (some say more) is Shia/Iranian Hezbollah sympathizers. Job number one is put a military man committed to a free Lebanon in charge. Hand pick the personnel that go on the borders with the UNIFIL forces - you can't say no Shia but go light on them. Less chance they will turn when outnumbered by other Leb. Army backed up by UNIFIL troops.

[JoseyWales]

I don't have the answer either other than the gvmnt needs to make a move, as well as the rest of the political establishment, NOW.

Maybe the army moving into HA Beirut (battered) strongholds now is a beginning. Sell it as securing the neighborhoods and the population.

Disarm or do not let arms back in. How costly is that now, these quarters are empty. The impact should be:

1) You signal wou will DO something.

2) You protect Beirut from Nasrallah's thugs and potential future Israeli attacks

3) You hopefully create a Shia neighborhood not beholden nor threatened by HA (pour in massive money too). How many Shia families are yearning for Hezbo weapons in the building next door??

4) If successful, you promise the same for other areas as they are vacated by Israel.

[fubar]

PARIS, Aug 14, 2006 (AFP) - The disarmament of Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and their withdrawal to north of the Litani river are indispensable for the Lebanese army and a bolstered international peacekeeping force to deploy in the area, France's foreign minister told AFP on Monday.

"The arrangements concerning the deployment of the Lebanese army alongside (the UN force) UNIFIL related to the start of an Israeli withdrawal must necessarily be accompanied first by a withdrawal of Hezbollah north of the Litani," Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said.

The move must then be followed by "the implementation of (UN) resolution 1559, namely the disarmament of Hezbollah," he added.

Douste-Blazy made his comments in reaction to an earlier statement by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who said disarmament of his fighters, as demanded by the United Nations, could not be done "in haste".

The French minister stressed the "obligations" of governments and parties concerned in the conflict to ensure the success of the more recent UN resolution 1701, penned by France and the United States in two weeks of haggling.

Okay, so maybe the French won't cry foul.

[e]

Gentlemen,
Who do you hate more, HA or Israel?
The solution is looking you in the face. Israel would be more than willing to help disarm HA if it got help from the Lebanese. You needn't worry about a Syrian intervention either. In Black September the Syrians moved troops into Jordan. Israel sent its airforce and the Syrians retreated. Israel is committed to maintain the Hashemite kings in Jordan and the moderate Lebanese can easily strike a similar deal with Israel.
I know no one likes us very much in Lebanon but a Lebanese-Israeli deal is the smartest way forward for both parties.
In any case, you don't have much time. If Olmert-Peretz are replaced with Netanyahu-Lieberman which is likely to happen in Israel in the next 1-2 years, the next war will be even more devastating for Lebanon.
All of us that want a good life should unite and fight those that want a good after life.
I hope you consider this seriously. We cannot do it without you, and you cannot do it without us. Of course, the US will be part of the deal and will guarantee that post HA Israel will not occupy Lebanon and will not meddle in its politics. Hell, I'd give you the Sheba Farms for such a deal.
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[bad vilbel]

On my way home just now, I heard "breaking news" on NPR about 10 katyushas fired by HA inside Lebanon at Israeli troops. Not confirmed.

But this brings me back to what I've been ranting about all day here: If HA does NOT want to negotiate with the rest of Lebanon. What choice does Lebanon have at a state? I know no one wants a civil war, but HA is not leaving the rest of Lebanon much choice.

Besides, I don't view it as a civil war. I view it as the state asserting it's authority against an outlaw organization. If you cannot enforce laws in your country, then there's really no point having one.

[vox]

May Allah grant to Nasrallah 1000 victory like that.

[fubar]

FoxNews now reporting 10 Katyushas fired in the past 4 to 5 hours, landing inside southern Lebanon but near Israeli positions. Violation of cease fire agreement by Iranian Hezbollah. But no official word yet from Israel.

1701 - Iranian Hezbollah must cease all attacks. Israel must cease only offensive attacks.

[pro Lebanon]

Nasrallah is a sewer rat. I curse that coward to hell and back. May he be shot in the head and allowed to decompose on a compost heap so that maybe, just maybe, the resulting nutrients can feed the growth of a flower or a vegetable. Then for the first time in his wretched life he can contribute something positive to this Earth.

[bad vilbel]

This is exactly why I'm pessimistic and see either a civil war in our future, or another invasion.

[Asiason]

The madness in all of this is as such.

It took Peace for so many to see the viper that was always beside them and behind them.

If the HA prevails in lebanon I foresee a time where any and all thoughts counter to their agenda ends in mass beheadings and hidden burials, where revenge and enforce squads like those now in Iraq roam and murder at will.

You have nothing to defend yourself with, the HA has arms and their sick moral victory and this will now fuel their extremism to never heard of levels before.

Either fight them or join them is now the declaration.

You thought Israel was your enemy? Wait till you see how the Hezbollah can decapitate heads with hack knives for merely saying " I don't quite agree with you Nasrallah..."

And now all the Lebanese blogs are screaming at Nasrallah ... where the hell is the 90% support for the HA? Did it suddenly dissapear overnight?

Or can you now see the gleam in this mad man's eyes?

[bad vilbel]

There never was a 90% support for Nasrallah. That's what I and others have been trying to tell you for the past month.

[someone]

What will happen if the milishia is disarmed and "israel" attacked Lebanon ?

Will the lebanese army defend the state ? i think no, then what is this army good for?

Before talking about disarmament of the milishia:

1.The shabaa farms should be returned to Lebanon or at least be at the hands of the UN,as 7-point plan mentioned.

2.Lebanese prisoners should return ,by an exchange ,clear and easy to do.

After that:

The lebanese army should be powered by getting long range missiles ,katiochas and modern weapons ,air planes,like any army in the middle east.

After that:

Unifil forces can be go home .

After that:

Everyone is ALLOWED to disarm the milishia ,or the milishia will peacefuly disarm itself.

At this stage 1559 and 1701,has been applied.

[fubar]

Mahmoud, Lebanon Ambassador to US, on FoxNews.

We hope the cease fire will hold. This week will be the hardest.

We have persuasive ability over Nasrallah but not the military ability. We are going to use the persuasive ability that we used with other groups in the 90's.

Too many other issues to be dealt with today, the disarmament issue can be dealt with later.

Previous six years, no cross border by Lebanon, while Israel was crossing the border in the air and in the water. Then this cross border sparks all of this.

Wants the US to find a solution to all the problems of the middle east. The US is a superpower and it is the US's responsibility.

Is there no one representing Lebanon that has even the smallest clue?

[R]

Fubar,

The Lebanese ambassador to the US is a jackass (Farid Abboud) I believe. He is one of the Lahoud people. The March 14 bunch have been trying to get rid of him for ages.