Siniora: Lebanese army confiscating Hizbullah weapons

According to Le Monde, the Lebanese army has been confiscating weapons belonging to Hizbullah, including "heavy weapons." AFP translates (via Naharnet):

    "The army has been seizing certain weapons, that is confirmed," Siniora told a group of four journalists, including Le Monde's correspondant, accompanying UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to Beirut. "There have been interceptions, but our policy is not to make announcements on such matters," he said, adding that the seizures involved "heavy weapons".

    "We are not the enemies of Hezbollah," he said, "but we will tolerate no armed presence, either carrying weapons or wearing uniforms."

    "No area will be off limits to the army," he said, vowing that Lebanese forces would "confiscate any weapons that it finds".

    "That is already what is happening in a firm but friendly way."

Lest we call what is happening "disarmament", it is not. The army is confiscating whatever it can see, and I am not aware of any attempt to find and seize hidden weapons. I could be wrong, and I hope that I am wrong. Here's how Siniora qualified it this past weekend in an interview with Canada's CBC (via The Daily Star):

Asked whether Hizbullah should be disarmed, Siniora said the term "disarmed" is "not at all the right word." He said it will be "through dialogue, through cooperation," with Hizbullah the goal of no weapons in the region is achieved. "It's not a matter of disarming. It's through dialogue that we have to reach that point. And I think this can be achieved while at the same time trying to find out how to integrate the numbers of Hizbullah that want to really get integrated within the Lebanese Army," he said.

Siniora said the Lebanese Army is "definitely entitled" to prevent the movement of weapons from other countries into Lebanon, but suggested it won't act aggressively. "But I mean it's not there to use force. Let's make it very clear it's not there to use force, but if it has to use force to protect itself and to stop any infringement of the law, then definitely, this is the army and it has to do so. The army is in the South to defend law and order and to stop any infringement of the law," he said.

Yesterday, this blog reported that the Lebanese army confiscated shipments of weapons in the Bekaa valley arriving via the Syrian border. Le Monde today confirms that Hizbullah is indeed trying to re-arm quickly.

    Le Monde's correspondent quoted "informed sources" as saying that Hezbollah was "trying to rearm as quickly as possible" and that the Lebanese army was "doing its best" to intercept shipments allegedly coming by land from Syria.

Nasrallah on Sunday said the Lebanese army has the right to intercept whatever it finds, while implying that he has plenty hidden in his arsenal that neither the Lebanese army nor UNIFIL will touch.  My guess is that Nasrallah, with his best friend Michel Aoun, will return to their pre-war attempt to topple the Siniora government through protests and possibly mass demonstrations. A Lebanese government committed to intercepting weapons shipments (even if there is no clear disarmament agenda) is bad news for Hizbullah in the long term. Their only hope now is to destroy the cabinet and form another government that could ask UNIFIL to leave under the pretext, to quote wannabe-president Aoun, that Lebanese people are self sufficient and don't need UNIFIL to monitor their bathroom activities.

Update. Al-Mustaqbal published in its Wednesday issue a transcript of Siniora’s chat with the journalists (quited above by Le Monde). According to Siniora, 8600 Lebanese army troops have been deployed along the Syrian border to monitor access points and will soon receive technical help and training from Germany. The army has already confiscated shipments of heavy weapons, including rockets, arriving via the Syrian border. He hinted that disarming Hizbullah is on track, but is being done through peaceful means and slowly. He said he was determined to make sure that weapons are confined to the Lebanese state. He also said the country was on the right track after years of Syrian domination which turned Lebanon into a Syrian satellite state. Siniora noted that since the Syrian withdrawal, people’s opinions stopped being uniform and “guided”. He cited as an example the Shia religious figures who now openly criticize Hizbullah-- a precedent, according to Siniora.

Siniora said disarming Hizbullah requires controlling the borders (to prevent weapons flow) and the border area (south), political dialog and solving the Shebaa farms issue by placing it under UN control. If these are achieved, their weapons become redundant and unacceptable.

Finally, he said Israel should derive a lesson from its various wars that failed to bring it security. “Peace is the solution… Security is not about 10 meters here or there… It’s about being able to live in peace with its neighbors… At the end of the day, Israel will live among the Arabs. The time has come to solve this problem by Arabs accepting Israel and not through bloodshed and nurturing hate and murders.”

Comments

[fubar]

1701 - UNIFIL-2 does what the Lebanese government requests.

He who controls the government, controls UNIFIL-2.

[bad vilbel]

Excellent analysis (about Aoun and HA trying to topple the government).
People keep saying there can be no coup (and I agree, not in the traditional sense). But this is for all intents and purposes, a coup. HA and Aoun will want to topple the government and get what they will call a "national unity government" in place (with representation for Aoun).
All that will serve is giving HA/Aoun/Lahoud more than a third of the cabinet, and hence the ability to torpedo this whole 1701 business.

Bad news..real bad news.

I REALLY have to hope that the Siniora government stands up to all this and starts acting with even more resolve.

I posted yesterday that Aoun was responsible, at least in part, to this current mess. Had he been with March 14, back in 2005, Lahoud would've been gone, HA would not be in the government today, and very likely, the national dialogue or talks about Hezbollah's arms might have been more fruitful in 2005/06.

[hummbumm]

Aoun is the biggest fiasco ever. Someone please tell me his support is declining, I have no idea. For god's sake please let's find another "strong" christian if we must have such a figure, though frankly the diversity is a strength I believe.

[JoseyWales]

Bad Vilbel's right on Aoun/Lahoud,

It should be noted here, once again, that there is no end to the lack of vision among all leaderships in Lebanon, in this case the Christian.

The Lahoud/Aoun biz is appalling. The fact that Sfeir also decreased the pressure on Lahoud was another, as usual, horrific mistake (honor of the community??)

Looks like a lot of very stupid things keep being done in the name of misplaced honor.

Traitor Lahoud as Prez to protect Maronite/Christian honor???

Hezbo starts a WAR which destroys the country to protect the Umma's honor???

[hummbumm]

not to keep harping on this but if you ever read the FPM forum, you would freak out, they have drunk the orange coolaid there for sure, defending even the border/bathroom comment etc... calling Jumblatt a traitor etc.. which leads me to my query, please what is FPM'support like in leba today, are people turning away from Aoun? or are we royally screwed?
I guess you know one always assumes more open mindness from a nominally secular and more educated group, but the truth is those guys on that forum are as vapid as the most ridiculous Hizbullah supporter. My fear is that once again I will be deluded into thinking that I am in the majority when in fact I am a tiny minority who sees lebanon's future ex. Hizb weapons and as a capitalist haven in the ME. Can you imagine what Lebanon's GDP/capita would have been without all the conflicts? we actually would have had a pretty darn wealthy country, the disposessed even in the deep south would have been way better off.

[someone]

All this is a gain of time ,Lebanon want to lift the siege right now,and what is needed is to follow 1701,as strictly as possible or at leat for the public outside Lebanon,so talking about confiscating weapons ,and the militia retreat from front position near shabaa farms,is just a tactic from both Nasrallah and Siniora i think,and Anan is there to see that everything is ok for the moment.

Soon the government will be replaced,but this government is needed for the moment ,to finish the work of applying 1701...and to re-build the south,and to avoid conflict with its current situation.It is not favorable for Aoun to stand against Nasrallah,but i dont see a strong alliance with him ,nearly a temporarly one.

[JoseyWales]

hummbumm,

Very scary,

I am like you I hope/think/conclude/expect that HA's and Aoun's popularity should decline after major blunders, and yet nothing seems to happen.

[bad vilbel]

Josey said:

"Looks like a lot of very stupid things keep being done in the name of misplaced honor."

Replace the words "misplaced honor with "Sectarian interests" and you've got a more accurate depiction.

In the end, Lebanon remains as sectarian as ever. We might not be fighting each other ala civil war, but the same prejudices and fears are still there. People think of sect/clan/tribe first, and Lebanon second. The patriarch is no better or worse than Berri, Hariri and the rest of them. He talks the big talk, but when push comes to shove, he's looking after preserving the power of the Maronite community, not Lebanon.
Aoun can talk all the secular talk, but in the end, his powerbase is the Christian base, who had to turn to someone once the LF fell apart in 1990. His talk of secularism and Lebanon nationalism is about as shallow as Hezbollah's talk of "resistance for all of Lebanon". In the end, Hezbollah is in it for the Shia, Aoun is in it for the presidency. Lebanon the concept, the nation, be damned.

And until the damned sectarianism goes away, Lebanon will stay as it is, a mess. There is no way around that.

[bad vilbel]

josey, humbumm,

After 15 years of civil war, death and destruction, none of those warlords/politicos lost their popularity. What makes you think new blunders will cause popularity to drop?

If the Lebanese people were dumb enough (yes, dumb!) to still follow guys like Berri, Joumblatt, Geagea, Aoun, Nasrallah and their ilk back in 1990, what makes you think they'll stop now?

I am starting to believe, more and more, that this country needs a strongman. I'm thinking someone like Mustapha Kemal Ataturk. A guy who'll come in and abolish all the old establishments, sectarian and feudal. Remake the system from scratch and build a modern and peaceful country.
One can dream, right?

[Vox P.]

They probably made a 'deal' with Hezbollah to confiscate some weapons and enhance their image vis-a-vis the international community.

[e]

Saniora is not stupid and will not be forced into HA/Aoun coalition. He will do to them what Fatah did to Hamas by not joing a unity government. This way HA and Aoun are left with the whole shit bag and are in an impossible situation. Without Saniora and the March 14 movement any Lebanese government is a terrorist government and Lebanon is through. HA and Aoun really don't have much room to manouvre even if they don't realize this yet.

Hamas didn't beleive that the international community would act the way it did, nor did HA believe that the UN will let the war go on 30 days. Maybe someone should explain to Aoun and the FPM guys what they are bringing on the head of Lebanon. They are taking all the necessarry steps in order to make Beirut into Gaza.

e

[e]

Vox,
It could be the case that Saniora is lying to the international community. Arafat thought that he could do it and get away with it but was sidelined by and abandoned to imprisonment in Ramallah when everybody realized that he was a liar. Saniora cannot fool everybody for long. If he is not serious, Lebanon will pay a huge price. For the forseeable future, NGOs and UN aid organizations are going to be heavily present in the south. It will be really hard to fool everybody: UNIFIL-2, NGOs, UN and Israel.

e

[Ghassan Karam]

The government is still playing games regarding its duty, responsibility and obligation by resorting to ambiguities in describing its intentions vis a vis HA. It is clear from the reports over the past few days that HA has dismanteled a number of its forward positions prior to the arrival of the UNIFIL forces but their weapons were NOT confiscated by the Lebanese army.
If the present government fails to disarm HA my fear is that will be a recipe for disaster on two grounds:

(1) The state within a state will continue and the democracy charade will go on with HA having the upper hand.

(2) An armed HA is an invitation for the IDF to renew its fight in Lebanon in order to reestablish its deterrent image.

Based on the above two assumptions it is essential that the Lebanese government stops playing for time and stands up for what is right. It is time to announce policies that favour a overeign state and not the concerns of those that seek to destroy it. A Lebanese governmenmt that is politically on the offensive will place Aoun and Nasrallah on the defensive. There is no time or justification for courting either the military arm of HA or the FPM, we have to do the right things by Lebanon, the interests of Aoun and Nasrallah be damned.

[e]

Ghassan,
Let's assume as you suggest that the Lebanese government needs to be more assertive and confiscate HA weapons. How would HA react to this confiscation?
How would HA react if Saniora says he wants to inspect the Dahya for weapons?
I just see it going straight downhill.
e

[JoseyWales]

Bad Vilbel

You make good points and sectarianism is alive and well.

Still, how does the destruction of the South (and Lebanon) help the Shia?

How does keeping Lahoud help the Maronites?

You got to admit these are baffling questions for he communities involved (and every one else).

[fubar]

Amman, 29 August (AKI) - The leader of a group which represents Jordanians detained in Israeli jails says Hezbollah has promised that any prisoner exchange between the Lebanese Shiite movement and the Israelis will also include Jordanian inmates. Salih al-Ajluni spoke to Adnkronos International (AKI) on Tuesday after returning from a visit to Lebanon where he met senior figures of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah leader, Hasan Nasrallah, had personally pledged that the Jordanian prisoners would be part of any deal with the Israelis, "as long as the Jordanian government does not interfere in the matter," Ajlani told AKI.

According to the Jordanian foreign ministry, which in 1999 persuaded the Israelis to allow visits to the Jordanian prisoners, Israel is holding 11 Jordanians citizens on security charges and five on criminal charges. Another seven were released by the Israelis in April.

But these figures are disputed by Ajluni's group which says 33 Jordanians are in jail in Israel and a further 24 are missing, and may also be incarcerated.

[Ghassan Karam]

e,
So often we find ourselves restating our positions over and over again. We have dealt with this issue previously and so please accept a very abreviated answer.
The Lebanese government does not have to seek confrontation, far from it. It owes it to the dignity and even integrity of the role of government to issue a proclamation (which it has failed to do) which states clearly that no military or paramilitary activity by a private group will be tolerated within the borders of Lebanon unless it is officially sanctioned by the Lebanese authorities.
To implement the above the Lebanese army and all the Internal Security forces will confiscate any weapons that are paraded by or transported by any private group. If the government agents will run across such weapons they will not turn a blind eye but will confiscate such weapons and hold the abusing party responsible to the fullest extent of the law.
The governemt should also declare that any and all weapons sent to Lebanon by any country will be considered to bea serious act by the originating country against Lebanon and thus will result in severing diplomatic relationship with the offending power.
The governement can launch serious investigations regarding the source of funding the above illegal activities
There are many more such actions that the governemt can take

Why do the above? In order to make it clear that these military type activities are frowned upon and are actually considered illegal and by sending a message to the countries that send their funds and weapons to these groups that the Lebanese government does not approve of such activities.

If the affected groups chose not to comply by parading their weapons or setting up training camps or even road blocks then the official authorities will have to hold the offenders responsible. If they choose to resist then the government forces will jhave to use whatever actions deemed required to stop the abuse of the law. I do not think that either HA or any other group can defy the government authorities by initiating aggressive actions and yet count on popular public support. If the public decides to take the side of the violaters of the law instead of the government then that indicates that the government is not representative of the wishes of the citizens and that will be that.

[bad vilbel]

josey,

I didn't qualify my response quite right. I should have said "sectarian lords' interests". Not the people per se. The people who gain the most from sectarianism are not the average Joe and Jane, be them maronite, shia or sunni. It's the 'ruling class' of each community.

Pre-75, you had the Jumblatts and Arslans, the Gemayels and the Chamouns, and so on. Post 1990, you had those same guys, plus a newly empowered shia class (all those west african shia that stand behind the Berris and the Nasrallahs) and a sunni establishment behind Hariri and his like.

It all boils down to clan/feudal mentality, even more so than sects per se.

The patriarch made a mistake by wanting to keep Lahoud afloat. The christian elite had been through 15 years of Syrian repression, and watching their power eroded. Taking down the president, was in their eyes, yet another blow to that old-school maronite prestige.

In the end, sectarianism benefits these ruling types, and not the communities as a whole. The regular people are just too dumb or too brainwashed to realize that it works against their own interests.
The shia are just as taken in by hezbollah's lies as the maronites are by a guy like Aoun.

Until we get rid fo this whole system, from its roots, this won't change.

And when I say "roots" i don't mean rebalance power into some new 'taif'...I mean get rid of sectarianism COMPLETLY.

[charlie]

Ghassan,

I like you, agree that the government needs to take tougher stand, not just with HA but across the board, including dealing with Syria and the armed Palastinians inside as well as outside the camps. However, I think this is impossible with the present make up of the parliament. The unfortunate issue here is that the FPM was able to win 20 seats, how could a clown like Aoun manages such strong support on the Christian side is beyond me, but he has it now. So for Siniora to form a government that secures a vote of confidence in the parliament he will need to form some sort of alliance with either Aoun or the shia coalition of Amal-HA. Unless Amal breaks away from HA (highly unlikely) or the FPM have a change in leadership that results in replacing Aoun with someone who is willing to distance the FPM from the Syrian plan (also highly unlikely). So, how do you think Siniora and the majority (Future movement, PSP, Lebanese forces, Phalange..etc) can overcome this??

Democracy is an advanced citizenship, for it to work the citizen has to do more than cast a piece of paper with a name on it. The citizen has to be well educated on the issues, understand the platform of each candidate and make a choice based on what they feel will be best for them as a citizen and best serves the country. Unfortunately in Lebanon this is not the case. The citizens go out like sheep and blindly vote for their “Zaiim” or Leader. Therefore you end up with this joke of a democracy, which has coasted Lebanon dearly and kept the country from advancing in any real way.

[bad vilbel]

What Charlie said...

[R]

Actually Charlie,

The present majority does needs neither HA nor Aoun to secure a vote of confidence (they are the majority). The only reason they need them is because they cannot alienate the largest representatives of 2 of the big 3 sects in Lebanon. Just thought it was important to make the distinction. Other than that, I agree about the lack of what you called "citizenship"...

[R]

I thought the Cabinet needs to secure two-third of the votes to be formed..I could be wrong, but can someone confirm this??

[charlie]

oops...signed your name by mistake on the previous post..sorry..:-)

[R]

I dug up the constitution, and it says nothing about the government gaining confidence, only losing it...

http://www.lp.gov.lb/doustour/default.htm

[Ghassan Karam]

R,

The Lebanese parliament is made up of 128 members. If the cabinet needs 2/3 votes to be seated then the yeas need to be 86 which means that the opposition can have up to 42 votes.

I know that FPM has 20 votes and is often described as the third largest bloc of votes. Does the HA/Amal group represent more than 22 votes and how solid is the support of FPM and Amal members?

Charlie,
It appears that you and I are in total agreement that democracy goes way behond the franchise. A vibrant democracy requires a responsible and educated voter . Unfortunately this has not been the case in Lebanon and so in a manner of speaking the voter is the one to blame for the failure of our experiment to take hold thus far. We have failed to elect responsible representatives and we have failed to hold them accountable whenever they failed to deliver on their promises.

[e]

Ghassan,
I understand your position. The only thing we disagree about is timing. How about a compromise :)? Saniora makes the declaration after UNIFIL-2 are fully deployed? That at least lowers his risk significantly.
e

[R]

Ghassan,

The March 14 block or the majority or whatever you wanna call them have only 72 seats total. On the other hand, Amal and HA together have in the low thirties...
Do you have any document that states that the government needs 2/3 to be seated ? I seem to recall it needs only 1/2 + 1.

[charlie]

I am fairly sure the majority needs 2/3 of the votes to be able to vote a president in (Not sure if the president can be ousted and how). So in essence, Lahoud can appoint a candidate the majority doesn't accepts, like a Karami for instance. The PM designate will fail to form a government thus creating a vaccum, which will benefit his Syrian masters. I think due to this scenario, the government (Siniora) never accepted the resignation of the previous interior minister and they are having Fatafat only acts in that capacity

Lebanon is all about funny accounting and this is no different..it is a real shame..Is it any wonder why most of us elected to migrate to other countries!!!

[Ghassan Karam]

"After Saniora detailed his program, including a series of administrative, political and economic reforms, MP Michel Aoun criticized him for failing to mention disarmament of the Hezballah, as called for by the United Nations."

Please read the above statementover and over again. That is a copy (not a quote but a copy) of what appeared an the Lebanese press thirteen months ago. The above is from the August 1, 2005 issue of Monday Morning. The same kind of statement can be found in practically every single Lebanese paper of the time. Would the real Michel Aoun please stand up.

If we are not going to hold our representatives accountable then we will never ever get out of this mess. The problem with Lebanese politics is that Aoun can become a devil worshipper tomorrow and most of his followers will adopt unquestioningly his new faith and will even defend it. How immature politically can we be?

[bad vilbel]

Very, Ghassan, Very.

[fubar]

Read Abu Kais' update above.

Add:

08.28.06, 22:27

Jordanian Prince Hassan Bin Talal, who was the Jordanian heir apparent until Abdullah was crowned as king, launched a sharp verbal attack against the leaders of Arab countries during a Kyoto conference.

"The Arab leaders stole billions of dollars from the Arab people and spent it on weapons to fight Israel, which they will never defeat, instead of using the money for health and education purposes to aid their people," he stated.

He also condemned Iran's nuke program...

Seems Siniora is sounding just a little like the Jordanian Prince. "At the end of the day, Israel will live among the Arabs. The time has come to solve this problem by Arabs accepting Israel and not through bloodshed and nurturing hate and murders.” -- Siniora.

Hmmm, and AKI (my post above at 6:13 p.m.) reports that:
Hezbollah leader, Hasan Nasrallah, had personally pledged that the Jordanian prisoners would be part of any deal with the Israelis, "as long as the Jordanian government does not interfere in the matter," Ajlani told AKI.

I am sure you can all come to own conclusions. Nasrallah has already figured it out.

Nasrallah is under much pressure. Still no guarantees of how this will all end up but be patient with Siniora for a little longer.

[Ghassan Karam]

I have done what R had suggested earlier. I have read the Lebanese constitution twice. There is no mention of a 2/3 majority for a vote of confidence. The only few times when a vote of 2/3 is mentioned seemed to be an exception which leads me to suspect that 72 vote majority is more than sufficient to elect a government and keep it in office. I grant you that an 8 vote majority is rather thin but it sure is thicker than the numerous examples around the world where a 1 or 2 vote majority permits governments to function rather well thank you. Unless somebody can tell us conclusively that a 2/3 vote majority is needed for the cabinet vote of confidence then we must assume that this government can operate without FPM, Amal and HA. If all members of parliament vote according to the four bloc associations then March 14 should get 72 votes and the opposition 56 votes (21 for FPM and 35 for HA/Amal). Siniora has no excuse not to show some backbone.

[fubar]

(Haaretz)
[A] diplomatic source told Haaretz Tuesday that while Annan has publicly expressed reservations over the ongoing blockade, the UN quietly recognized that the blockade had to continue until UNIFIL forces completed their deployment along the Lebanon-Syrian border.

. . .

Meanwhile, it appears that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government is in no hurry to see an end to the blockage, fearing that its lifting would allow the flow of arms to Hezbollah from Syria to resume.

[bad vilbel]

Reading that update Abu Kais posted is very encouraging.
Goes to show that there is always a LOT going on behind the scenes that we don't necessary hear about.

I've been very negative lately. Or maybe bi-polar at times. I'm shifting into positive mode, reading the above (and Fubar's comments). Patience indeed. Siniora is doing the best he can, that much is clear.
The question is, will it be enough.

I tend to agree with Fubar's comment about the Lebanese government not necessarily minding the blockade, since it does really help Siniora's position by restricting HA's ability to rearm.

[someone]

"Finally, he said Israel should derive a lesson from its various wars that failed to bring it security. “Peace is the solution… Security is not about 10 meters here or there… It’s about being able to live in peace with its neighbors… At the end of the day, Israel will live among the Arabs. The time has come to solve this problem by Arabs accepting Israel and not through bloodshed and nurturing hate and murders.” "

Siniora want "israel" to understand that a siege over Lebanon,or a buffer zone up to the Litani,are not solutions ,but temporary security measures that dont lead to anything but more conflicts."israel" should deal with Lebanon as a country ,not a military zone .

Solution include accpeting lebanese rights without arrogance.No disarmament is favoravle when Lebanon is considered a battlefield ,and and a hot military zone.

[Hamid- Liban]

I like your blog. At least you are not as fearful as some of us who live in Lebanon, especially in the South (TYRE). Nasrallah is manoeuvring to include his Christian ally Michel Aoun in the the government to subvert Seniora. In broad daylight, he is moving arms and rockets and munitions from the Arqoub area, Shebba farms, Kafr Shuba under the eyes of the Lebanese army. Truckloads with arms are moving North. Where is UNIFIL 2. Apparently not in the area.

The WAll Street Journal article by Amir Taheri

NASRALLAH’S BLUNDER : LEBANESE TURN ON HEZ CHIEF

August 29, 2006 — WELL, what do you know: What was presented as a “Great Strategic Divine Victory” only a week ago is now beginning to look more like a costly blunder. And the man who is making the revisionist move is the same who made the original victory claim: Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, secretary-general of the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah.In a TV interview in Beirut Sunday, Nasrallah admitted second thoughts about the wisdom of capturing the two Israeli soldiers, an incident that triggered the war: “The party leadership never expected a response on such an unprecedented scale and volume [by Israel],” he said. “Had we known that what we did would lead to this, we would certainly not have embarked upon it.”

For a roundabout way of eating humble pie, this was not bad for a man whom Western media have portrayed as the latest Arab folk hero or even (as one U.S. weekly put it) a new Saladin.

Why did Nasrallah decide to change his unqualified claim of victory into an indirect admission of defeat? Two reasons.

The first consists of facts on the ground: Hezbollah lost some 500 of its fighters, almost a quarter of its elite fighting force. Their families are now hounding Nasrallah to provide an explanation for “miscalculations” that led to their death.

Throughout southern Lebanon, once a stronghold of Hezbollah, pictures of the “martyrs” adorn many homes and shops, revealing the fact that many more Hezbollah fighters died than the 110 claimed by Nasrallah. What angers the families of the “martyrs” is that Hezbollah fighters had not been told that the sheik was starting a war to please his masters in Tehran, and that they should prepare for it.

The fighters found out there was a war only after the Israelis started raining fire on southern Lebanon. In fact, no one - apart from the sheik’s Iranian contacts and a handful of Hezbollah security officials linked to Tehran and Damascus - knew that Nasrallah was provoking a war. Even the two Hezbollah ministers in the Lebanese government weren’t consulted, nor the 12 Hezbollah members of the Lebanese National Assembly. The party’s chief policymaking organ, the Shura (consultative assembly), hasn’t held a full session since 2001.

The “new Saladin” has also lost most of his medium-range missiles without inflicting any serious damage on Israel. Almost all of Hezbollah’s missile launching pads (often placed in mosques, schools and residential buildings) south of the Litani River have been dismantled.

Worse still, the Israelis captured an unknown number of Hezbollah fighters and political officers, including several local leaders in the Bekaa Valley, Khyam and Tyre.

The second reason why Nasrallah has had to backtrack on his victory claims is the failure of his propaganda machine to hoodwink the Lebanese. He is coming under growing criticism from every part of the political spectrum, including the Hezbollah itself.

Last week he hurriedly cancelled a series of victory marches planned for Beirut’s Shiite suburbs after leading Shiite figures attacked the move as “unmerited and indecent.” Instead, every village and every town is holding typical Shiite mourning ceremonies, known as tarhym (seeking mercy), for the dead.

Nasrallah has tried to rally his base by distributing vast sums of Iranian money through his network - by the end of last week, an estimated $12 million in crisp U.S. banknotes. But if Nasrallah had hoped to buy silence, if not acquiescence, he is being proved wrong. Some Lebanese Shiites are scandalized that they are treated by Iranian mullahs as mercenaries, and see Nasrallah’s cash handouts as diyah (blood money) for their dead. And a dead man whose family receives a diyah cannot claim the status of “martyr” and enjoy its prerogatives in paradise.

As the scale of the destruction in the Shiite south becomes more clear, the pro-Hezbollah euphoria (much of it created by Western media and beamed back to Lebanon through satellite TV) is evaporating. Reality is beginning to reassert its rights.

And that could be good news for Lebanon as a nation. It is unlikely that Hezbollah will ever regain the position it has lost. The Lebanese from all sides of the political spectrum are united in their determination not to allow any armed group to continue acting as a state within the state.

The decent thing to do for Nasrallah would be to resign and allow his party to pick a new leader, distance itself from Iran and Syria, merge its militia into the Lebanese army and become part of the nation’s political mainstream.

In last year’s elections, Hezbollah ended up with 12 seats in the 128-seat National Assembly, thanks to a series of alliances with other Shiite groups as well as Christian and Druze parties. As the scale of Nasrallah’s blunder becomes clearer, it is unlikely that Hezbollah would be able to forge such alliances in the future.

To be sure, Nasrallah remains a powerful man. He has hundreds of gunmen at his disposal plus a source of endless supplies of money and arms in Iran. He can still have his political opponents murdered inside and outside Lebanon either by his goons or by hit men from Damascus and Tehran. But his chances of seizing power through a coup de force or provoking a civil war are diminishing by the day.

Arab leaders never resign, even when they admit having made tragic mistakes. And Nasrallah is no exception. In reality, however, Lebanon has already moved into the post-Nasrallah era. And that is the only good news to come out of the mini-war he provoked.

Apres l’article qu’il a publie sur le Wall Street Journal la semaine derniere, Amir Tahiri continue a nous montrer que la “victoire” du Hezbollah ressemble de plus en plus a une defaite majeure pour Nasrallah, et commente l’admission du leader de Hezb qu’il aurait mieux fait de s’abstenir de kidnapper les deux soldats israeliens .

[Roger]

Six years ago, when Israel withdrew from Lebanon, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan made a swing through the region, similar to the one that brings him to Jerusalem today. Back then, Annan met with Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

"Let me say that Hizbullah... is a player in the south of Lebanon. I did tell Mr. Nasrallah that Hizbullah exercised restraint, responsibility and discipline after the withdrawal, and that we would want to see that continue, and I'm sure from the indications that he gave me that he intends to do it," Annan said after his meeting in June 2000. ........

We can only suppose that Annan must wince a bit at his decision to meet with "Mr. Nasrallah," and the public confidence he displayed in him then.

Annan did not, of course, meet with Nasrallah - who in any case is difficult to find these days - this week in Beirut.

But Prime Minister Ehud Olmert might suggest to his guest today that Annan not go ahead with a worse meeting tentatively planned for later this week: with Nasrallah's backers in Teheran.

Just last week, Annan's spokesman stated that his boss "considers anyone who would try to deny the truth of the Holocaust or make false claims about it to be a bigot." The same statement said that Annan was "likely" to visit Teheran.

Why would Annan want pictures of him meeting politely with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a man he has effectively and correctly called an anti-Semitic bigot, broadcast around the world?

Iran is defying multiple UN decisions regarding its nuclear program. To emphasize its defiance, the regime has just unveiled a new plutonium-producing reactor project and shot off a long-range missile. Ahmadinejad has repeatedly denied the Holocaust and as late as yesterday reiterated his arguments for Israel's elimination - an act of genocide.

If meeting Nasrallah has correctly become beyond the pale for the UN secretary-general, why is meeting with Iranian leaders within the realm of the acceptable? What can Annan say in Teheran that cannot be better said in New York, without providing Ahmadinejad with a diplomatic plum?

Annan deserves credit for continuing to insist, in Lebanon, on the full implementation of Resolution 1701, including the unconditional release of Israel's abducted soldiers and the disarming of Hizbullah. He said that Lebanon could not choose "a la carte" the parts of the resolution it liked, and that there must be "one law, one authority, one gun" in Lebanon.

Yet when asked whether the new mandate of UNIFIL included deployment along the Lebanese-Syrian border, Annan strangely misrepresented Resolution 1701: "We have no such plans at the moment. As I said not long ago, it is not in [UNIFIL's] mandate to deploy to the Lebanese-Syrian border."

Actually, operative paragraph 14 "calls upon the government of Lebanon to... prevent the entry in Lebanon without its consent of arms or related materiel and requests UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11 [defining UNIFIL's expanded mandate] to assist the government of Lebanon at its request."

UNIFIL's entire deployment, including in the south, required the Lebanese government's blessing. That approval, as Annan proudly pointed out, was provided when Lebanon adopted Resolution 1701 "fully and unanimously."

Is the enforcement of an embargo against rearming of Hizbullah integral to 1701, or is it something that Lebanon may opt out of "a la carte?"

Why didn't Annan say that he expects that Lebanon will fulfill such an embargo and that 1701 explicitly places UNIFIL at Lebanon's disposal to assist in this task?

Obviously, as urgent and necessary as it is to disarm Hizbullah, it is even more critical to prevent Hizbullah from restocking the enormous arsenal it just lost. This must be done both by ensuring that there are consequences for Syria and Iran if they attempt to violate the new UN embargo, and by insisting that Lebanon enforce the embargo, presumably with UNIFIL's help.

Annan may be right that the key to disarming Hizbullah is for the Lebanese government to build a consensus for doing so, rather than UNIFIL leading the way by force. But if UNIFIL will not disarm Hizbullah, and will not even help enforce an embargo on the border, what is it there for?

And if Annan himself is deflating Resolution 1701's key embargo provision, as well as providing Teheran's genocidal bigots with proof that they can defy the world and still merit a prestigious diplomatic visit, is he part of the solution, or of the problem?

[M. Simon]

This is a track back:

Hizballah is Losing More Hardware.

After a lot of bluff and bluster. After losing a lot of bunkers. Hizbollah is losing a lot of its favorite hardware.

[M. Simon]

Roger,

My guess is that the Israelis are providing the help required.

[John Smith]

A few of my own thoughts:

My personal experience from this war:
I served as a combat soldier in the IDF artillery forces. Although our unit didn’t cross the border into Lebanon in this war, we had our share of fighting. The intense heat, the sun burns, the bad food, the lack of sleep, the physical pain caused by lifting, moving and firing thousands of artillery shells, the constant explosions all day and all night, Katyusha rockets falling 300 feet from us, the fear of death, not seeing the wife and kids for weeks… It was better than what I’ve expected from war (mainly because the guys in my unit are great), but still… war looks much better with a bucket of popcorn in your hands…

Regarding the start of the war:
I guess a large operation against HA was planned a long time ago. The kidnapping was just the excuse needed by the IDF. Israel saw HA getting stronger on the other side of the border without being restrained by the Lebanese government. Over the last 6 years, from time to time, HA shot with small fire arms like AK-47 at border patrols and fired Katyusha rockets at Israeli towns, but it was always ‘small enough’ not to justify a serious military operation. At some point everybody here felt like ‘enough is enough’. You can pinch a giant for some time, but eventually he will step on your head. Sure, crushing your scull seems like a very inappropriate response to the last pinch…

Regarding the goals of the war:
If I remember correctly the first press meeting generated 3 goals set by Israel. Return the kidnapped soldiers home, stop rocket launches at Israeli cities and disarm HA. The first goal, I hope, will be achieved in a few weeks. The second one was of course achieved. The third goal… well… I guess it’s now up to the Lebanese people. The whole idea was that the military operation will leverage the diplomatic effort.

Regarding the Litani river goal:
I think this was just some bullshit goal set for the IDF (and Israeli public) so it would appear like some military goal has been achieved and a ceasefire can be declared. Everyone with a map can see that a Katyusha rocket with a range of 30-40 kilometres and beyond can be launched north of the river and still hit Israeli cities.

Regarding Lebanese civilian casualties:
When you are hitting civilians, all you do is score more negative points in the public eyes. We all saw the pictures. We were all shocked. We all felt sorry. No one in Israel went to the street celebrating like it’s done on Palestinian cities. I have been serving as a combat soldier in the IDF since 1993 and have fought in the current war, Lebanon, the west bank, the Gaza strip, and almost every Palestinian city in Israel. From my personal experience, the IDF never, I repeat, NEVER aims at innocent civilians and does its best to avoid hitting them. I can even say that many times it increases the risk to its own soldiers. Of course there can always be mistakes, but that’s all they are. Mistakes.

Regarding Israeli civilian casualties:
I’m sure that if you saw pictures of Israeli civilians and children hit by Katyusha rockets (or Palestinians suicide bombing) you would be shocked as all of us were from the Qana pictures. Although this could be used as a great propaganda, in Israel (as in other western countries) it is not done. It is called respect for the dead, and it is considered here more important than scoring points in the UN.

Regarding the future:
In the near future Israel will have to solve some issues with the Palestinians, Syria and Iran. Please handle HA. Thanks in advance.

[Josh Scholar]

Siniora came out today with a statement that "Lebanon will be the LAST country to make peace with Israel."

Does Lebanon have any balls? No. Obviously. They won't break ranks with the rest of the Arab countries. They can't possible make peace.

Hatred trumps everything in the Middle East. Always!

I just lost my pity for Lebanon.

[fubar]

InsideDefense reports that the Pentagon is preparing an aid package for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) that is designed to increase ground force deployments across Lebanon's southern region, allowing the LAF to better challenge Iranian and Syrian backed Hezbollah terrorists.

The $10.6 million bundle of aid -- intended to improve ground mobility through purchases of spare parts needed to get more of Lebanon's military trucks, helicopters and APCs operational -- may soon expand to improve other military capabilities, according to a Pentagon official involved in preparing the assistance package who called it "the first phase of... a multiyear effort."

The official declined to specify what additional capabilities the Pentagon, in close coordination with the State Department, might be willing to provide Lebanon, but said plans are in the works for a second aid package that could move forward as soon as this fall. DOD would like to see Lebanon's army use the assistance to repair its 5-ton military trucks, M113 APCs and UH-1H utility helicopters to counter militias and terrorist organizations within its borders.

"We need to see how they use these first items we’re sending," the official said. "If they take advantage of the equipment and really get around and do their patrolling and assert themselves, then you’ll see different kinds of equipment going in that we can provide to help them more. It is safe to say we would be increasing their capabilities more broadly."